Tesla

Company analysis
Drivers

Selected case 2
Company Tesla
Currency USD
Domestic country United States
10-year treasury yield (May 2021) 1.56%
Market risk premium US 5.6%
Company beta (May 2021) 1.98
Bond Yield (May 2020) 4.50%
Corporate tax rate 30%

1 Best case
2 Base case
3 Worst case
Tesla Bond Yield
Input -->
P&L Input

2014 2015 2016 2017

Act Act Act Act
(in thousands)
Automotive revenues 3,007,012 3,740,973 6,350,766 9,641,300
Energy generation and storage 4,208 14,477 181,394 1,116,266
Services and other 187,136 290,575 467,972 1,001,185
Total revenues 3,198,356 4,046,025 7,000,132 11,758,751
Automotive cost of revenues (2,145,749) (2,823,302) (4,750,081) (7,432,704)
Energy generation and storage cost of revenues (4,005) (12,287) (178,332) (874,538)
Services and other cost of revenues (166,931) (286,933) (472,462) (1,229,022)
Gross profit 881,671 923,503 1,599,257 2,222,487
Research and development (464,700) (717,900) (834,408) (1,378,073)
Selling, general and administrative (603,660) (922,232) (1,432,189) (2,476,500)
Restructuring and other
EBIT (186,689) (716,629) (667,340) (1,632,086)
Interest income 1,126 1,508 8,530 19,686
Interest expense (100,886) (118,851) (198,810) (471,259)
Other income (expense), net 1,813 (41,652) 111,272 (125,373)
EBT (284,636) (875,624) (746,348) (2,209,032)
Provision for income taxes (9,404) (13,039) (26,698) (31,546)
Net income (loss) incl. minority interests (294,040) (888,663) (773,046) (2,240,578)
Minority interests - - 98,132 279,178
Net inome (loss) (294,040) (888,663) (674,914) (1,961,400)

KPIs
Revenue % automotive y-o-y 24% 70% 52%
Revenue % generation y-o-y 244% 1153% 515%
Revenue % services y-o-y 55% 61% 114%
GP% automotive 29% 25% 25% 23%
GP% energy generation and automotive 5% 15% 2% 22%
GP% services and other 11% 1% -1% -23%
Overall GP% 28% 23% 23% 19%
EBIT % -6% -18% -10% -14%
Net loss % -9% -22% -10% -17%
ROA -5% -11% -3% -7%
ROE -32% -82% -14% -46%
 2018 2019 2020
Act Act Act
18,514,983 20,821,000 27,236,000
1,555,244 1,531,000 1,994,000
1,391,041 2,226,000 2,306,000
21,461,268 24,578,000 31,536,000
(14,173,997) (16,398,000) (20,259,000)
(1,364,896) (1,341,000) (1,976,000)
(1,880,354) (2,770,000) (2,671,000)
4,042,021 4,069,000 6,630,000
(1,460,370) (1,343,000) (1,491,000)
(2,834,491) (2,646,000) (3,145,000)
(135,233) (149,000)
(388,073) (69,000) 1,994,000
24,533 44,000 30,000
(663,071) (685,000) (748,000)
21,866 45,000 (122,000)
(1,004,745) (665,000) 1,154,000
(57,837) (110,000) (292,000)
(1,062,582) (775,000) 862,000
86,491 (87,000) (141,000)
(976,091) (862,000) 721,000

92% 12% 31%

39% -2% 30%
39% 60% 4%
23% 21% 26%
12% 12% 1%
-35% -24% -16%
19% 17% 21%
-2% 0% 6%
-5% -4% 2%
-3% -3% 1%
-20% -13% 3%
Balance Sheet Input

31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec

(in thousands) 2014 2015 2016
Cash and cash equivalents 1,905,713 1,196,908 3,393,216
Restricted cash and marketable securities 17,947 22,628 105,519
Accounts receivable, net 226,604 168,965 499,142
Inventory 953,675 1,277,838 2,067,454
Prepaid expenses and other current assets 76,134 115,667 194,465
Total current assets 3,180,073 2,782,006 6,259,796
Operating lease vehicles, net 766,744 1,791,403 3,134,080
Solar energy systems, leased and to be leased, net - - 5,919,880
Property, plant and equipment, net 1,829,267 3,403,334 5,982,957
Intangible assets - 12,816 376,145
net portion - - 506,302
Restricted cash, net of current portion 11,374 31,522 268,165
Operating lease right of use assets - -
Digital Assets - -
Goodwill - -
Other assets 43,209 46,858 216,751
Total assets 5,830,667 8,067,939 22,664,076
Accounts payable 777,946 916,148 1,860,341
Accrued liabilities 268,883 422,798 1,210,028
Deferred revenue 191,651 423,961 763,126
Resale value guarantees - 136,831 179,504
Customer deposits 257,587 283,370 663,859
Current portion of long-term debt and capital leases 611,099 627,927 984,211
Current portion of solar bonds issued to related -
parties - - 165,936
Total current liabilities 2,107,166 2,811,035 5,827,005
Long-term debt and capital leases, net of current
portion 1,818,785 2,021,093 5,860,049
Deferred revenue, net of current portion - -
Other liabilities 993,006 2,152,107 5,438,936
Total liabilities 4,918,957 6,984,235 17,125,990
Redemmable non controlling interests in subsidiaries - -
Total stockholders' equity 911,710 1,083,704 4,752,911
Noncontrolling interests in subsidiaries - - 785,175
Total liabilities and equity 5,830,667 8,067,939 22,664,076

KPIs
Liquidity ratios
Quick ratio 0.91 0.43 0.60
Current ratio 1.51 0.99 1.07
DSO 25.51 15.03 25.67
DIO 148.20 147.32 137.81
DPO 120.89 105.62 124.00
Net Trading Cycle 52.81 56.73 39.47
Solvency ratios
Debt ratio 1.19 1.16 1.32
Interest coverage <0 <0 <0
 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec 31 Dec
2017 2018 2019 2020
3,367,914 3,685,618 6,268,000 19,384,000
155,323 192,551 - -
515,381 949,022 1,324,000 1,886,000
2,263,537 3,113,446 3,552,000 4,101,000
268,365 365,671 959,000 1,346,000
6,570,520 8,306,308 12,103,000 26,717,000
4,116,604 2,089,758 2,447,000 3,091,000
6,347,490 6,271,396 6,138,000 5,979,000
10,027,522 11,330,077 10,396,000 12,747,000
361,502 282,492 339,000 313,000
516,889 489,707 - -
441,722 398,219 - -
- - 1,218,000 1,558,000
- - - -
- - 198,000 207,000
273,123 571,657 1,470,000 1,536,000
28,655,372 29,739,614 34,309,000 52,148,000
2,390,250 3,404,451 3,771,000 6,051,000
1,731,366 2,094,253 3,222,000 3,855,000
1,015,253 630,292 1,163,000 1,458,000
787,333 502,840 - -
853,919 792,601 726,000 752,000
796,549 2,567,699 1,785,000 2,132,000

100,000 - - -
7,674,670 9,992,136 10,667,000 14,248,000

9,415,700 9,403,672 11,634,000 9,556,000

- - 1,207,000 1,284,000
6,330,414 4,586,166 2,691,000 3,330,000
23,420,784 23,981,974 26,199,000 28,418,000
- - 643,000 655,000
4,237,242 4,923,243 6,618,000 22,225,000
997,346 834,397 849,000 850,000 -
28,655,372 29,739,614 34,309,000 52,148,000

0.46 0.39 0.59 1.36

0.86 0.83 1.13 1.88
15.78 7.96 9.70 10.76
85.45 32.17 31.17 29.64
90.23 35.18 33.10 43.73
11.00 4.95 7.77 -3.33

1.22 1.24 1.31 1.84

<0 <0 <0 <0
Workings -->
Income Statement Items
Automotive
Deliveries

Tesla Deliveries
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Vehicle Act Act Act Act Act Fcst Fcst
Tesla Model 3 - 1,764 145,610 300,600 358,088 393,897 433,286
Tesla Model S and X 76,230 101,312 99,310 66,600 57,039 58,180 59,343
Tesla Model Y - - - - 84,423 92,865 102,152
Tesla Roadster 2 - - - - - - -
Tesla Semi - - - - - - 156,000
Total 76,230 103,076 244,920 367,200 499,550 544,942 750,782

y-o-y growth %

Tesla Model 3 n.a. n.a. 8155% 106% 19% 10% 10%

Tesla Model S and X 51% 33% -2% -33% -14% 2% 2%
Tesla Model Y n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 10% 10%
Tesla Roadster 2 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
Tesla Semi n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 10%

Assumed growth after introduction:

2 years 10%
2 years 5%
onwards 2%
ries
2023 2024 2025 2026
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
454,951 477,698 487,252 496,997
60,530 61,741 62,976 64,235
107,259 112,622 114,875 117,172
52,000 57,200 60,060 63,063
171,600 180,180 189,189 198,648
846,340 889,442 914,352 940,116

5% 5% 2% 2%
2% 2% 2% 2%
5% 5% 2% 2%
10% 10% 5% 5%
10% 5% 5% 5%
Revenue Automotive

Tesla Revenue Automotive (in mln $)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Vehicle Act Act Act Act Act Fcst Fcst Fcst
Tesla Model 3 - - - - - 19,695 21,664 22,748
Tesla Model S and X 6,351 9,641 18,515 20,821 27,236 13,032 13,293 13,559
Tesla Model Y - - - - - 5,386 5,925 6,221
Tesla Roadster 2 - - - - - - - 11,960
Tesla Semi - - - - - - 31,200 34,320
Total 6,351 9,641 18,515 20,821 27,236 38,113 72,082 88,807

Selected case
Tesla Model 3 100% 100% 100%
Tesla Model S and X 100% 100% 100%
Tesla Model Y 100% 100% 100%
Tesla Roadster 2 100% 100% 100%
Tesla Semi 100% 100% 100%

Best case
Tesla Model 3 102% 102% 102%
Tesla Model S and X 102% 102% 102%
Tesla Model Y 102% 102% 102%
Tesla Roadster 2 102% 102% 102%
Tesla Semi 102% 102% 102%

Base case
Tesla Model 3 100% 100% 100%
Tesla Model S and X 100% 100% 100%
Tesla Model Y 100% 100% 100%
Tesla Roadster 2 100% 100% 100%
Tesla Semi 100% 100% 100%

Worst case
Tesla Model 3 98% 98% 98%
Tesla Model S and X 98% 98% 98%
Tesla Model Y 98% 98% 98%
Tesla Roadster 2 98% 98% 98%
Tesla Semi 98% 98% 98%

Resource:

https://www.businessinsider.in/thelife/news/tesla-just-hiked-prices-by-up-to-10000-heres-how-much-each-model-will-set-you
https://www.motorbiscuit.com/how-much-does-a-tesla-semi-cost/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HmgvhPHZE8H_VIH_9SxUgjLuUpKJGevP9TRPmlIYX5A/edit#gid=687173946
$)
2024 2025 2026 Average
Fcst Fcst Fcst Price ($)
23,885 24,363 24,850 50,000
13,830 14,107 14,389 224,000
6,532 6,663 6,796 58,000
13,156 13,814 14,504 230,000
36,036 37,838 39,730 200,000
93,439 96,784 100,269

100% 100% 100%

100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100%

102% 102% 102%

102% 102% 102%
102% 102% 102%
102% 102% 102%
102% 102% 102%

100% 100% 100%

100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100%
100% 100% 100%

98% 98% 98%

98% 98% 98%
98% 98% 98%
98% 98% 98%
98% 98% 98%

ch-each-model-will-set-you-back/articleshow/81495820.cms

5A/edit#gid=687173946
GP %

Comparables

GP % GP % GP %
Vehicle Comparable companies Comp. 1 Comp. 2 Comp. 3
Tesla Model 3 GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler 11.8% 4.8% 12.8%
Tesla Model S and X BMW, Mercedes Cars, Volkswagen 12.3% 8.0% 16.5%
Tesla Model Y BMW, Mercedes Cars, Volkswagen 12.3% 8.0% 16.5%
Tesla Roadster 2 Jaguar, Porsche, Ferrari 35.9% 87.9% 51.3%
Tesla Semi Scania, MAN, Paccar 21.0% 13.4% 12.3%

Historical

Vehicle Average
Tesla Model 3 n.a.
Tesla Model S and X 24%
Tesla Model Y n.a.
Tesla Roadster 2 n.a.
Tesla Semi n.a.
Average
9.8%
12.3%
12.3%
58.4%
15.6%
Gross Profit

Tesla Gross Profit (in mln $)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Vehicle Act Act Act Act Act Fcst Fcst
Tesla Model 3 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 1,930 2,123
Tesla Model S and X n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 1,599 1,631
Tesla Model Y - - - - - 661 727
Tesla Roadster 2 - - - - - - -
Tesla Semi - - - - - - 4,857
Total 1,601 2,209 4,341 4,423 6,977 4,189 9,337

Selected case
Tesla Model 3 10% 10%
Tesla Model S and X 12% 12%
Tesla Model Y 12% 12%
Tesla Roadster 2 58% 58%
Tesla Semi 16% 16%

Best case
Tesla Model 3 11% 11%
Tesla Model S and X 14% 14%
Tesla Model Y 14% 14%
Tesla Roadster 2 60% 60%
Tesla Semi 17% 17%

Base case
Tesla Model 3 10% 10%
Tesla Model S and X 12% 12%
Tesla Model Y 12% 12%
Tesla Roadster 2 58% 58%
Tesla Semi 16% 16%

Worst case
Tesla Model 3 8% 8%
Tesla Model S and X 11% 11%
Tesla Model Y 11% 11%
Tesla Roadster 2 57% 57%
Tesla Semi 14% 14%
mln $)
2023 2024 2025 2026
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
2,229 2,341 2,388 2,435
1,663 1,696 1,730 1,765
763 801 817 834
6,981 7,679 8,063 8,466
5,342 5,610 5,890 6,185
16,979 18,127 18,888 19,684

10% 10% 10% 10%

12% 12% 12% 12%
12% 12% 12% 12%
58% 58% 58% 58%
16% 16% 16% 16%

11% 11% 11% 11%

14% 14% 14% 14%
14% 14% 14% 14%
60% 60% 60% 60%
17% 17% 17% 17%

10% 10% 10% 10%

12% 12% 12% 12%
12% 12% 12% 12%
58% 58% 58% 58%
16% 16% 16% 16%

8% 8% 8% 8%
11% 11% 11% 11%
11% 11% 11% 11%
57% 57% 57% 57%
14% 14% 14% 14%
Cost of sales automotive

Tesla Cost of sales (in mln $)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Vehicle Act Act Act Act Act
Tesla Model 3 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
Tesla Model S and X n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
Tesla Model Y - - - - -
Tesla Roadster 2 - - - - -
Tesla Semi - - - - -
Total (4,750) (7,433) (14,174) (16,398) (20,259)

COGS= Revenue - Gross Profit

Tesla Cost of sales (in mln $)
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
(17,765) (19,541) (20,518) (21,544) (21,975) (22,415)
(11,434) (11,662) (11,896) (12,133) (12,376) (12,624)
(4,725) (5,198) (5,458) (5,731) (5,845) (5,962)
- - (4,979) (5,477) (5,751) (6,039)
- (26,343) (28,978) (30,426) (31,948) (33,545)
(33,924) (62,745) (71,829) (75,312) (77,896) (80,584)
Energy & Other
Revenue Energy & Other

Tesla Revenue Energy & Other

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
($ in million) Act Act Act Act Act
Energy generation and storage 14 181 1,116 1,555 1,531
Services and other 291 468 1,001 1,391 2,226
Total Energy and Other 305 649 2,117 2,946 3,757
SolarCity 400 730 - - -
Total Energy and Other + SolarCity 705 1,379 2,117 2,946 3,757

Selected case
Total Energy and Other

Y-o-Y %
Best case
Total Energy and Other

Base case
Total Energy and Other 96% 54% 39% 28%

Worst case
Total Energy and Other
Tesla Revenue Energy & Other (in mln $)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Act Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
1,994 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
2,306 n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
4,300 5,074 5,987 6,826 7,781 8,715 9,412
- n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a
4,300 5,074 5,987 6,826 7,781 8,715 9,412

18% 18% 14% 14% 12% 8%

20% 20% 16% 16% 14% 10%

14% 18% 18% 14% 14% 12% 8%

16% 16% 12% 12% 10% 6%

Gross Profit Energy & Other

Tesla GP% Energy and Other (in mln

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
($ in million) Act Act Act Act Act Act
Energy generation and storage 2 3 242 190 190 18
Services and other 4 (4) (228) (489) (544) (365)
Total Energy and Other 6 (1) 14 (299) (354) (347)
SolarCity 119 251 - n.a. n.a. n.a.
Total Energy and Other + SolarCity 125 250 14 (299) (354) (347)

Selected case
Total Energy and Other 18% 18% 1% -10% -9% -8%

GP%
Best case
Total Energy and Other

Base case
Total Energy and Other

Worst case
Total Energy and Other
% Energy and Other (in mln $)
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
75 88 100 115 128 139

1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%

1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

-3% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3%

Cost of sales Energy & Other

Tesla Cost of sales Energy & Other (in mln $)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
($ in million) Act Act Act Act Act Fcst
Energy generation and storage (178) (875) (1,365) (1,341) (1,976) n.a.
Services and other (472) (1,229) (1,880) (2,770) (2,671) n.a.
Total Energy and Other (651) (2,104) (3,245) (4,111) (4,647) n.a.
SolarCity -981 - - - - n.a.
Total Energy and Other + SolarCity (1,632) (2,104) (3,245) (4,111) (4,647) (4,999)
ales Energy & Other (in mln $)
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.
(5,899) (6,725) (7,667) (8,587) (9,274)
Operating expenses
Opex comparables

Comparables - 2020

Company Average Adj. Average

GM 8% 8%
Ford -3%
Fiat Chrysler 6% 6%
BMW 6% 6%
Volkswagen 5% 5%
Jaguar -1% -1%
Porsche -7%
Ferrari 21%
Scania 8% 8%
Paccar 11% 11%
Average 5% 6%
Opex

Tesla Opex (in mln $)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
($ in million) Act Act Act Act Act Fcst
Revenues 7,000 11,759 21,461 24,578 31,536 43,187
Opex as a % of revenues -32.4% -32.8% -20.6% -16.8% -14.7% -6%
Opex (2,267) (3,855) (4,430) (4,138) (4,636) (2,651)

Selected case
Opex as a % of revenue -6%

Opex %
Best case
Opex as a % of revenue -4%

Base case
Opex as a % of revenue -6%

Worst case
Opex as a % of revenue -8%
la Opex (in mln $)
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
78,069 95,633 101,220 105,498 109,681
-6% -6.1% -6.1% -6.1% -6.1%
(4,793) (5,871) (6,214) (6,477) (6,733)

-6% -6% -6% -6% -6%

-4% -4% -4% -4% -4%

-6% -6% -6% -6% -6%

-8% -8% -8% -8% -8%

Balance Sheet -->
Property, Plant & Equipment
uipment
Fixed asset roll forward

Selected case: as a % of PPE 1

Tesla PP&E (in mln $)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
($ in million) Act Act Act Act Act
Beginning PP&E 3,403 5,983 10,028 11,330 10,396
Capex 3,997 6,722 4,956 3,929 8,869
D&A (1,417) (2,677) (3,653) (4,863) (6,518)
Ending PP&E 5,983 10,028 11,330 10,396 12,747
Tesla D&A (in mln $)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
($ in million) Act Act Act Act Act
2021
Fcst
2022
Fcst
2023
Fcst
2024
Fcst
2025
Fcst
2026
Fcst
Total D&A (1,417) (2,677) (3,653) (4,863) (6,518)

D&A as a % of PP&E -41.6% -44.7% -36.4% -42.9% -62.7%

D&A as a % of revenues -20.2% -22.8% -17.0% -19.8% -20.7%
Capex as a % of PP&E 117.4% 112.3% 49.4% 34.7% 85.3%
Capex as a % of revenues 57.1% 57.2% 23.1% 16.0% 28.1%

Useful life Capex 15

Useful life historical assets 15
Tesla PP&E (in mln $)
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
12,747 21,396 31,849 41,355 49,701 54,918
10,177 12,837 12,740 12,407 9,940 10,984
(1,528) (2,384) (3,233) (4,060) (4,723) (5,455)
21,396 31,849 41,355 49,701 54,918 60,446
Tesla D&A (in mln $)
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
(1,528) (1,528) (1,528) (1,528) (1,528) (1,528)

(856) (856) (856) (856) (856)

(849) (849) (849) (849)

(827) (827) (827)

(663) (663)

(732)

(1,528) (2,384) (3,233) (4,060) (4,723) (5,455)

-17.4% -17.4% -17.4% -17.4% -17.4% -17.4%

-3.5% -3.1% -3.4% -4.0% -4.5% -5.0%
79.8% 60.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 20.0%
36.3% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
PP&E comparables

Comparables - 2020

D&A as a % of PP&E D&A as a % of revenues

Company Average Adj. Average Average Adj. Average
GM -13% -13% -4% -4%
Ford -19% -19% -6% -6%
Fiat Chrysler -17% -17% -4% -4%
BMW -20% -20% -4% -4%
Volkswagen -20% -20% -6% -6%
Jaguar -14% -14% -6% -6%
Porsche -47% -15%
Ferrari -27% -27% -7% -7%
Scania -15% -15% -8% -8%
MAN -17% -10%
Paccar -11% -11% -2% -2%
Average -20% -17% -7% -5%
Working capital
Working capital

Tesla Working capital (in mln $)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
($ in million) Act Act Act Act Act Fcst Fcst
Trade receivables 499 515 949 1,324 1,886 1,676 3,030
Inventory 2,067 2,264 3,113 3,552 4,101 6,838 12,060
Trade payables 194 268 366 959 1,346 7,055 12,441
Net trade cycle 2,372 2,511 3,697 3,917 4,641 1,460 2,649

Selected case:
DSO 25.7 15.8 8.0 9.7 10.8 14.0 14.0
DIO 137.8 85.4 32.2 31.2 29.6 63.2 63.2
DPO 124.0 90.2 35.2 33.1 43.7 65.2 65.2
Net trade cycle 39.5 11.0 5.0 7.8 (3.3) 12.0 12.0
in mln $)
2023 2024 2025 2026
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
3,712 3,929 4,095 4,257
13,801 14,579 15,194 15,787
14,238 15,040 15,675 16,286
3,276 3,468 3,615 3,758

14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0

63.2 63.2 63.2 63.2
65.2 65.2 65.2 65.2
12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
Financing
Financing
Cover negative cash flows with:
Debt 50%
Equity 50%

Bond Yield as of Sep. 19 4.5%

Tesla Financing (in mln $)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
($ in million) Act Act Act Act Act
Long-term debt and capital leases, net of current 5,860.0 9,415.7 9,403.7 11,634.0 9,556.0
Interest expense (198.8) (471.3) (663.1) (685.0) (748.0)
Interest rate -3.4% -5.0% -7.1% -5.9% -7.8%

Tesla Cash Flow (in mln $

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Act Act Act Act Act
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
Debt
Equity

Assumption:
If the unlevered Free cash flow is -ive for any year the company will go for 50% debt & 5
 Tesla Financing (in mln $)
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
9,556.0 9,556.0 9,556.0 9,556.0 9,556.0 9,556.0
(430.0) (430.0) (430.0) (430.0) (430.0) (430.0)
4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%

Tesla Cash Flow (in mln $)

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
7,022.1 9,473.8 6,776.2 2,852.0 5,719.4 5,747.4
- - - - - -
- - - - - -

company will go for 50% debt & 50% equity financing

WACC

Risk-free rate 1.56%

Market risk premium 5.60%
Beta (as of May 2021) 1.98
Tax rate 30%

Cost of equity 12.6%

Current bond Yield as of May 4.5%

Tesla WACC calculation (in mln $)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
($ in million) Act Act Act Act Act Fcst
Debt 6844 10212 11971 13419 11688 11688
Equity 5538 5235 5758 7467 23075 23903

Debt / (Debt + Equity) 55% 66% 68% 64% 34% 33%

Equity / (Debt + Equity) 45% 34% 32% 36% 66% 67%

Cost of equity 12.6% 12.6% 12.6% 12.6% 12.6% 12.6%

Cost of debt 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%

WACC 7.4% 6.4% 6.2% 6.5% 9.5% 9.5%

CC calculation (in mln $)
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
11688 11688 11688 11688 11688
26845 34390 42508 50984 59846

30% 25% 22% 19% 16%

70% 75% 78% 81% 84%

12.6% 12.6% 12.6% 12.6% 12.6%

4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%

9.8% 10.2% 10.6% 10.9% 11.1%

Output -->
P&L

Tesla P&L (in mln $)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
($ in million) Act Act Act Act Act Fcst Fcst
Revenues 7,000 11,759 21,461 24,578 31,536 43,187 78,069
Cost of sales (5,401) (9,536) (17,419) (20,509) (24,906) (38,923) (68,644)
Gross profit 1,599 2,222 4,042 4,069 6,630 4,264 9,425
Operating expenses (2,267) (3,855) (4,430) (4,138) (4,636) (2,651) (4,793)
EBIT (667) (1,632) (388) (69) 1,994 1,613 4,633
Interest expenses/income (79) (577) (617) (596) (840) (430) (430)
EBT (746) (2,209) (1,005) (665) 1,154 1,183 4,203
Taxes (27) (32) (58) (110) (292) (355) (1,261)
Minority interest 98 279 86 (87) (141) - -
Net Income (675) (1,961) (976) (862) 721 828 2,942

Check
Net income -675 -1961 -976 -862 721
- - - - -
n $)
2023 2024 2025 2026
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
95,633 101,220 105,498 109,681
(78,554) (82,979) (86,482) (89,858)
17,079 18,241 19,016 19,823
(5,871) (6,214) (6,477) (6,733)
11,208 12,027 12,540 13,089
(430) (430) (430) (430)
10,778 11,597 12,110 12,659
(3,233) (3,479) (3,633) (3,798)
- - - -
7,545 8,118 8,477 8,862
Balance Sheet

Tesla BS (in m
2016 2017 2018 2019
Act Act Act Act
($ in million)
Cash 3,393 3,368 3,686 6,268
Restricted cash and securities 106 155 193 -
Trade receivables 499 515 949 1,324
Inventory 2,067 2,264 3,113 3,552
Prepaid expenses 194 268 366 959
as a % of revenues 2.8% 2.3% 1.7% 3.9%
Operating lease vehicles 3,134 4,117 2,090 2,447
Solar energy systems leased 5,920 6,347 6,271 6,138
PP&E 5,983 10,028 11,330 10,396
Intangible assets 376 362 282 339
Other assets 991 1,232 1,460 2,886
as a % of revenues 14.2% 10.5% 6.8% 11.7%
Total assets 22,664 28,655 29,740 34,309

Accounts payable 1,860 2,390 3,404 3,771

Accrued liabilities 1,210 1,731 2,094 3,222
as a % of revenues 17.3% 14.7% 9.8% 13.1%
Deferred revenue 763 1,015 630 1,163
as a % of revenues 10.9% 8.6% 2.9% 4.7%
Resale value guarantees 180 787 503 -
as a % of revenues 2.6% 6.7% 2.3% 0.0%
Customer deposits 664 854 793 726
as a % of revenues 9.5% 7.3% 3.7% 3.0%
Long-term debt 6,844 10,212 11,971 13,419
Other liabilities 5,605 6,430 4,586 3,898
as a % of revenues 80.1% 54.7% 21.4% 15.9%
Total liabilities 17,126 23,421 23,982 26,199
Redeemable non controlling interest in subsidiaries - - - 643
Equity 5,538 5,235 5,758 7,467

Total liabilities & equity 22,664 28,655 29,740 34,309

Check - - - -
 Tesla BS (in mln $)
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Act Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
Assumption
19,384 25,321 34,365 40,711 43,133 48,422 53,740 Cash flow sheet
- - - - - - - Stays flat
1,886 1,676 3,030 3,712 3,929 4,095 4,257 Working capital sheet
4,101 6,838 12,060 13,801 14,579 15,194 15,787 Working capital sheet
1,346 1,290 2,332 2,856 3,023 3,151 3,276 Grows as a % of revenues
4.3% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091 Stays flat
5,979 5,979 5,979 5,979 5,979 5,979 5,979 Stays flat
12,747 21,396 31,849 41,355 49,701 54,918 60,446 PP&E sheet
313 313 313 313 313 313 313 Stays flat
3,301 4,634 8,376 10,261 10,860 11,319 11,768 Grows as a % of revenues
10.5% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7%
52,148 70,538 101,395 122,079 134,608 146,483 158,657

6,051 7,055 12,441 14,238 15,040 15,675 16,286 Working capital sheet
3,855 5,796 10,477 12,834 13,584 14,158 14,719 Grows as a % of revenues
12.2% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4% 13.4%
1,458 2,749 4,970 6,088 6,443 6,716 6,982 Grows as a % of revenues
4.6% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4%
- 1,002 1,812 2,219 2,349 2,448 2,545 Stays flat
0.0% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% Stays flat
752 2,226 4,025 4,930 5,218 5,439 5,655 Grows as a % of revenues
2.4% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%
11,688 11,688 11,688 11,688 11,688 11,688 11,688 Financing sheet
4,614 16,119 29,138 35,693 37,778 39,375 40,936 Grows as a % of revenues
14.6% 37.3% 37.3% 37.3% 37.3% 37.3% 37.3%
28,418 46,635 74,550 87,690 92,100 95,498 98,811
655 - - - - - - Stays flat
23,075 23,903 26,845 34,390 42,508 50,984 59,846

52,148 70,538 101,395 122,079 134,608 146,483 158,657

- - - - - - -
Cash Flow

Tesla Cash Flow (in ml

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
($ in million) Act Act Act Act Act
EBIT (667.3) (1,632.1) (388.1) (69.0) 1,994.0
Operating taxes (30%) (32) (58) (110) (292)
NOPAT (1,664) (446) (179) 1,702
Add-back D&A 2,677.0 3,653.0 4,863.0 6,518.0
Gross Cash Flow 1,013 3,207 4,684 8,220

Trade receivables (16) (434) (375) (562)

Inventory (196) (850) (439) (549)
Accounts payable 530 1,014 367 2,280
Investments in Working Capital 318 (269) (447) 1,169

Capex (6,722) (4,956) (3,929) (8,869)

Other assets (1,760) 1,820 (2,108) (1,261)
Other liabilties 2,397 (2,212) 403 1,670

Unlevered Free Cash Flow (4,753) (2,410) (1,397) 929

Interest expenses (577) (617) (596) (840)

Delta Financial liabilities 3,368 1,759 1,448 (1,731)
Delta equity/Other equity movements 1,658 1,499 2,571 14,887
Tax adjustment - - - -
Minority interest 279 86 (87) (141)
Reedemabale non controliing interest in subsidiaries - - 643 12

Net Cash Flow (25) 318 2,582 13,116

Opening cash 3,393.2 3,367.9 3,685.6 6,268.0

Net Cash Flow - (25.3) 317.7 2,582.4 13,116.0
Closing cash 3,393.2 3,367.9 3,685.6 6,268.0 19,384.0

Check - - - - -
Tesla Cash Flow (in mln $)
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
1,612.8 4,632.7 11,208.2 12,027.3 12,539.6 13,089.5
(355) (1,261) (3,233) (3,479) (3,633) (3,798)
1,258 3,372 7,975 8,548 8,907 9,292
1,528.3 2,384.1 3,233.4 4,060.5 4,723.2 5,455.4
2,786 5,756 11,208 12,609 13,630 14,747

210 (1,354) (682) (217) (166) (162)

(2,737) (5,222) (1,741) (777) (616) (593)
1,003.7 5,386.8 1,796.1 802.0 635.0 611.9
(1,524) (1,189) (627) (192) (147) (144)

(10,177) (12,837) (12,740) (12,407) (9,940) (10,984)

(1,277) (4,784) (2,409) (766) (587) (574)
17,213 22,528 11,343 3,608 2,763 2,701

7,022 9,474 6,776 2,852 5,719 5,747

(430) (430) (430) (430) (430) (430)

- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
- - - - - -
(655) - - - - -

5,937 9,044 6,346 2,422 5,289 5,317

19,384.0 25,321.1 34,364.9 40,711.1 43,133.0 48,422.4

5,937.1 9,043.8 6,346.2 2,421.9 5,289.4 5,317.3
25,321.1 34,364.9 40,711.1 43,133.0 48,422.4 53,739.8

- - - - - -
DCF Valuation

g (Perpetuity growth) 2%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
($ in million) Act Act Act Act Act Fcst Fcst
Unlevered Free Cash Flow 7,022 9,474
Continuing value

Discount factor (WACC) 9.5% 9.8%

Present value of UFCF 6,411 7,863
Present value of CV

Perpetuity Growth Rate-Based Valuation

Total PV of Cash Flows 27,708
Continuing Value 64,448
PV of Continuing Value 34,278
Enterprise Value 61,986
+Cash 19,384
-Financial liabilities (11,688)
Equity Value 69,682
Number of shares outstanding (as of 31 Dec 2020) 960
Price per share 72.6
 2023 2024 2025 2026
Fcst Fcst Fcst Fcst
6,776 2,852 5,719 5,747
64,448

10.2% 10.6% 10.9% 11.1%

5,058 1,906 3,413 3,057
34278