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\cgUNICAF UNIVERSITY
MASTER’S IN ACCOUNTING AND FINANCE

The Impact of AI on Agricultural productivity and employment in rural Zimbabwe

A Case of Mushangwe Rural Farming Community

ARTHUR MCNALLY ZHOU

R1712D4017837
Supervisor: Mary Mandiringana

UU-MBA-71-ZM-2956

Abstract
Artificial intelligence has revolutionized many spheres of human society and Agriculture is no
exception. With a bulging global population coupled with worsening weather patterns due to
climate change there has never been a greater need for human ingenuity in Agriculture and
Artificial Intelligence is the technological revolution the sector needs.

The main objective of this research is to analyze the impact of Artificial Intelligence on
agricultural productivity and employment. Mushangwe rural farming community in Zimbabwe
will be used as a case study. The impact of AI on crop yield, quality of crop and employment
opportunities will come in to focus. Furthermore, the role of AI and machine learning in
mitigating the effects of climate change in this farming community will also be assessed.

The sample size included 50 respondents, 30 smallholder tomato farmers from Mushangwe rural
communal farming area and 20 governmental and non-governmental officials will be the study
population. Existing data on agricultural productivity and Artificial intelligence and employment
will be used for analysis.
1.1 Introduction

The Industrial revolution from the 20th to the 21st century has seen humankind make
unparalleled development with the aid of Artificial intelligence and automation. Manyika et.
al (2017) defines Artificial Intelligence as the “ability of machines to carry out cognitive
functions that would normally be associated with human intelligence such as perceiving,
reasoning, learning and solving problems”. It is the replication of human intelligence in
machines by programming said machines to perform tasks that would otherwise be done by
human beings. AI is being applied in all spheres of human life and Agriculture is not an
exception. According to Zeeman and Rodriguez (2019) and Feng et al (2011) AI is being
applied to a whole host of agricultural areas including land and water use, agricultural
production, machinery and sustainable agriculture amongst others.

The rapid population growth which is estimated to reach 10 billion by 2050 (FAO 2017) is
going to put tremendous pressure on the agricultural sector with a possibility of food
insecurity looming large. Climate change and demographic boom have exacerbated the need
for AI in the agricultural sector. Climate change’s adverse effects on agriculture are
occurring on a global scale but its impact is unevenly distributed with Sub-Saharan Africa
being the most affected region. Just like most African and developing countries Zimbabwe is
an Agrarian economy and is heavily reliant on the Agricultural sector.

These effects are more pronounced in rural areas where agriculture is the sole economic
activity for most of the population. FAO 2016 puts the percentage of rural people relying on
rainfed agriculture at 75% further increasing their vulnerability to changing weather patterns
making the introduction of smart farming more important. The Agricultural sector according
to FAO 2017 still provides livelihood, employment and income to roughly 60% of the
population, accounts for up to 40% of all exports and is a significant contributor to the
National GDP of Zimbabwe. However, the emergence of AI in a labor-intensive sector such
as agriculture can have a telling impact on the employment rate in farming communities.

This research paper focuses on the impact artificial intelligence has on productivity and labor
in rural farming communities. Most previous research on this topic mainly focused on
artificial intelligence in large scale commercial farming and investigations on the technical
aspects of smart farming. Little research has been done on what impact AI has on small
holder rural farmers in developing countries what the implementation of AI will do to the
employment opportunities of the locals.

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1.2 Problem Statement

The agricultural sector has faced many challenges due to climate change, dwindling arable
land, diseases and pest control and a rapidly growing population has shifted agriculture to a
new paradigm S Liu (2020). The increased vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa especially in
rural areas is due to the overreliance on agriculture by many in the region. Estimation of the
global food production will need to be increased by 60-110% to match the bulging population
expected to be around 9 billion by 2050 J Rockstromet al (2017). AI has emerged as the most
efficient solution to help solve the challenges currently being faced in the agricultural sector.

Just like many farming communities in the rural areas of Zimbabwe, climate change has been
the biggest problem bringing about floods like Cyclone Elin, droughts of 2002 and 2008 and
inconsistent rain patterns. Bohle et al (1994) noted that Zimbabwe was going to face
increasingly unpredictable and unreliable rainfall as the climate warmed by 2 degrees.
Mushangwe farming community had not fared well with declines in tomato production and
other crops causing food security concerns and a depleted income streams thereby warranting
the need for Artificial intelligence as a solution.

The application of artificial intelligence has come in the form of automated irrigation system,
development of the drought early warning system (DEWS), smart greenhouse technology and
machine learning algorithms. However, agriculture is labor intensive, and the advent of new
technology will have a significant impact on the employment opportunities of people from
Mushangwe farming community. Input of fertilizers, tillage of land and harvesting will be
automated leaving a whole swart of the people displaced. The purpose of this research is to
analyze the impact AI has on the agricultural productivity and employment in rural
communities using Mushangwe community as a case study.

1.3 Research Questions

How has AI impacted agricultural productivity in rural Zimbabwe's small holder farming
communities?

What is the relationship between AI and Employment in Rural Farming Communities (RFC)?

What role does AI play in combating challenges faced by RFC?

What are the challenges and opportunities of implementation of AI in agriculture in Rural

Zimbabwe?

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1.4 Objectives

To investigate the impact of AI on agricultural productivity in Zimbabwe’s RFC

To establish a relationship between AI and employment in Zimbabwe’s RFC

To examine the role played by AI in combating challenges faced by RFC in Zimbabwe

To identify challenges and opportunities of implementing AI in rural Zimbabwe

1.5 Significance of Study

As governments all around the world especially in Sub Saharan Africa move to automate
their agricultural sectors data and information about the impact of this change will become
valuable. This research will help governmental institutions and NGOs in the successful
implementation of AI in rural areas by drawing them to the challenges and opportunities that
are likely to be faced. Farmers will benefit from the increased productivity and other
stakeholders could benefit from the structural transformation and skills transfer brought by
AI.

2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW

The 4th industrial revolution has had a significant impact on all spheres of human life
economic, social and political. Schwab 2016 defines the 4th industrial revolution as the fusion
in advances of the Internet of things, robotics and artificial intelligence. Rusell and Norvig
(2003) define Artificial Intelligence as intelligence exhibited by an artificial agent whilst
Wisskirchen (2017) defines it as the investigation of intelligent problem-solving behavior and
the creation of intelligent computer systems. The literature review examines the impact AI
has on the agricultural productivity in rural communal areas. Additionally, it seeks to
determine the relationship between AI and employment in rural farming communities and the
impact AI has on the overall socio-economic condition of rural farming communal areas.

2.1 Impact of AI on agricultural productivity

According to Kim et al (2008) AI has managed to improve the agricultural sector by

providing efficient solutions to the challenges faced in different fields of agriculture like the
crop yield, irrigation, soil content sensing, crop- monitoring, weeding, crop establishment. Eli
Chukwu (2019) concurs as he states that AI ensures that there is proper treatment of the soil,

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efficient storage of big data, and reducing the knowledge gap between farmers and
technology.

People who reside in rural areas are most vulnerable to challenges faced by the agricultural
hence AI application can address most of the challenges DAIA (2020). Simoya (2018)
explains how AI has led to an increase in productivity in rural areas of Zimbabwe through
efficient distribution of farming inputs by government programs. Panpatte 2018 also affirms
the notion stating that urbanization will force rural farmers to embrace smart farming
resulting in increased productivity. Masinde 2014 argues that one of the most significant AI
tools in agriculture is the Drought early warning system (DEWS) which predicts when, where
and the severity of a drought.

2.2 AI and Rural Employment

P Aguera et al (2020) states that the agricultural sector is a key contributor to the GDP of
african countries and remains a pivotal provision of employment especially in rural areas.
The implementation of AI in rural areas will have a positive impact on the employment
opportunities in the area Simoya (2020). He argues that the increased efficiency of
implementing AI will bring about new employment opportunities. Bughin (2017) also
concurs as he states that new farming technology will create new jobs that never existed.
However, Soffar (2019) argues that AI might result in unemployment with an estimated
1,5billion people working in the agricultural sector, monotonous jobs could easily be
automated leaving a lot of people obsolete. Simoya disagrees as he stated that countries like
Zimbabwe will be able to practice winter farming because of the controlled temperature in
smart greenhouses thereby adding more employment opportunities.

2.3 Challenges and Opportunities of implementing AI in rural areas

One of the opportunities to be taken advantage of in rural areas is machine learning. In

Zambia over 22 000 farmers have been using mobile technology in farming. The use of the
app AgriPredict helps farmers get instant about weather predictions and plant diseases ahead
of time BBC (2020). In East Africa the app Nuru has been used to take pictures of leaf
damage and send to experts reducing farmer’s costs and crop damage. Jellason et al (2021)
suggests that the implementation of AI in rural areas has significant challenges such as scale.
The practice of intercropping and same field crop diversity makes adoption of AI difficult.

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Simoya argues that in the case of Zimbabwe the high literacy rate makes the implementation
and adoption of AI easier.

What is missing from previous research is a comprehensive study of how AI impacts

productivity in rural areas and how employment opportunities may rise or fall from the
implementation of AI.

3.0 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY.

3.1 Introduction

This chapter will outline the research strategy, research method, sample size of the target
population, the research process and the type of data analysis.

3.2 Research method

Secondary data will be used to collect and synthesize the existing data and a fusion of
quantitative and qualitative research was used. Qualitative research was used to explore rural
farmer’s experience of AI and understand their different perspectives and attitudes towards
the implementation of AI, whilst quantitative research was used measure the impact

t of AI both on employment statistics and agricultural productivity.

3.3 Data Collection Tools

Semi structured online questionnaires, data from NGOs, Government institutions and peer
reviewed journals, and academic papers were used to gather data to satisfy the objectives of
this research. Semi structured questionnaires were used to guide for the researcher.

3.4 Sample Size

The area covered in this study is the Mushangwe rural farming community which specializes
in growing tomatoes located in Mashonaland East province of Zimbabwe. 30 smallholder
tomato farmers from Mushangwe rural communal farming area and 20 governmental and
non-governmental officials will be the study population.

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3.5 Ethical Considerations

Ethical procedures for this research were followed. This included getting a research clearance
letter from the relevant Institutions. Respondents of the online questionnaire were informed
about the objectives of the research, and they voluntarily participated.

4.0 EXPECTED RESULTS

The expected outcome is to be able to illustrate how AI impacts agricultural productivity for
small holder farmers in rural areas. Furthermore, it will describe the relationship between AI
and employment opportunities in communal farming areas. Finally, the challenges and
opportunities of implementing AI in the rural Zimbabwe will also be explored. This research
will help governmental institutions and NGOs in the successful implementation of ongoing
AI projects in rural areas. Farmers will benefit from the increased productivity and other
stakeholders from the structural transformation and skills transfer brought by AI. Finally, this
research can serve as the first stage of a multistage process where researchers can later
research on the effectiveness of AI in solving problems faced by rural farmers.

The population growth will warrant an increase in global food demand and the Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs) of reducing extreme poverty and eradicating food insecurity
might become increasingly unattainable if the problem persists. because of the limited
capacity to expand agricultural fields with agricultural production accounting for 37,7% of
the world’s surface area.

Estimation of the global food production will need to be increased by 60-110% to match the
bulging population expected to be around 9 billion by 2050 J Rockstromet al (2017).

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 AI and machine learning algorithms can be used in four main stages of Agriculture namely
preproduction, production, processing and distribution. This has a positive impact on the
Agricultural supply chain Ahumada (2009).

. Lack of funding and support has also hampered Zimbabwean rural farmers’ productivity
particularly variability of crops with most farmers avoiding growing capital-intensive crops
like potatoes.

Artificial intelligence is also seen as the 4th Industrial revolution which will see an economic
upheaval which necessitates the changing of people’s livelihood Mhlanga (2021). The
Agricultural sector according to FAO 2017 still provides livelihood, employment and income
to roughly 60% of the population, accounts for up to 40% of all exports and is a significant
contributor to the National GDP of Zimbabwe. Research carried out by Ndebele and Mubaya
(2015) showed that climate change had negatively affected the maize yields of 2 rural
farming communities in the Masvingo District of Bikita and Zaka.

Adding to the problems faced by rural farmers is a mistrust for government backed or foreign
backed solutions because of past failures like the Alliance for a Green revolution in Africa
(AGRA). Poor implementation and a lack of consultation with local farmers coupled with
imposition of western style methods that aren’t suitable in rural communities has left rural
farmers hesitant to outside help. development of the drought early warning system (DEWS),

Agriculture in Sub Saharan Africa continues to be dominated by smallholder farmers with

80% of output coming from farmers holding 2 hectares or less Jellason et al (2021).

According to the Zimbabwe Meteorological Services the daily minimum temperatures have
risen by 2.6 degrees over the last century.

5 TIME SCHEDULE

Activity Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week Week

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 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Research topic &
Draft
Introduction
Research 
proposal

Literature review


Evaluation of
Secondary Data


Research
philosophy and
design
Research 

ethics
Writing the 

project report

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Info
Most of the empirical literature on innovation and firm performance point to a positive relation hence this
study hypothesises a positive relation between innovation and firm performance, and innovators/innovative
firms to be in more competitive positions than their non-innovative. Terziovski (2010)

Presenting Data

The table below shows data ownership of tractors between Communal farmers and
A1 farmers in Mvurwi.

Table 2 Smallholder tractor Ownership in Mvurwi by Sector

Sector Number of tractors total

owned
.00 1.00 2.00 3.00
Communa 452 1 0 0 453
l

area
% 99.8% 0.2% 0% 0% 100.0%
A1 sector 338 13 2 0 353
% 95.8% 3.7% .6% .0% 100.0%

Source: T Shonhe, APRA Survey 2017

An AI sowing app developed by Microsoft helps to predict the sowing date, recommends
fertilizers input, seed treatment and land preparation. This has resulted in a 30% increase in
crop yield.
Theoretical assertions that support mechanization and technology as drivers of agricultural
productivity are not new. The famous success of the Green Revolution in India in 1975 serves
as a reference point for most scholars who support this school of thought.

Model

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Solow’s earliest model of factors of production plus technology leading to long term growth.
Solow’s Model (1957) is as follows

model output Yt at time t is determined by three factors: capital input Kt, labor input Lt, and
technology level At. The equation reads as

Yt = Kat(At Lt) 1-a

With this equation the total economic growth attributed to technological change can be
estimated. Other researchers like Sickels and Zelenyuk (2019) also agree stating that
historical data shows evidence that economic growth can be directly linked to technological
advancement.

The State of Food and Agriculture leveraging food systems for Inclusive Rural
Transformation 2017, pp 1-181

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