Economic Theories of

PapersWorking 159.No

the Household:
A Critical Review
1999April

Päivi Mattila-Wiro
818 :RUOG ,QVWLWXWH IRU
'HYHORSPHQW (FRQRPLFV 5HVHDUFK
818 :,'(5

:RUNLQJ 3DSHUV 1R

(FRQRPLF 7KHRULHV RI WKH +RXVHKROG

$ &ULWLFDO 5HYLHZ
3lLYL 0DWWLOD :LUR
$SULO

7KLV VWXG\ KDV EHHQ SUHSDUHG ZLWKLQ WKH 818 :,'(5 ,QWHUQVKLS
3URJUDPPH DQG WKH SURMHFW RQ 1HZ 0RGHOV RI 3URYLVLRQ DQG )
LQDQFLQJ RI 3XEOLF *RRGV LQ 'HYHORSLQJ &RXQWULHV FR GLUHFWHG E\
3URIHVVRU *HUPDQR 0ZDEX 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 1DLUREL 'U &HFLOLD 8JD] 818 :,'(5
DQG WKH ODWH 3URIHVVRU *RUGRQ :KLWH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6XVVH[ ,'6

818 :,'(5 JUDWHIXOO\ DFNQRZOHGJHV WKH ILQDQFLDO FRQWULEXWLRQV WR WKH

SURMHFW E\ WKH )LQQLVK 0LQLVWU\ IRU )RUHLJQ $IIDLUV DQG WKH *RYHUQPHQW RI
6ZHGHQ 6ZHGLVK ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 'HYHORSPHQW &RRSHUDWLRQ $JHQF\ 6LGD

3lLYL 0DWWLOD :LUR LV DIILOLDWHG ZLWK WKH 6FKRRO RI

%XVLQHVV DQG (FRQRPLFV 8QLYHUVLW\ RI -\YlVN\Ol
818 :RUOG ,QVWLWXWH IRU 'HYHORSPHQW (FRQRPLFV 5HVHDUFK 818 :,'(5 $
UHVHDUFK DQG WUDLQLQJ FHQWUH RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 8QLYHUVLW\

7KH %RDUG RI 818 :,'(5

1RUD /XVWLJ
+DUULV 0XWLR 0XOH
6\OYLD 2VWU\
-XNND 3HNNDULQHQ 9LFH &KDLUSHUVRQ
*HRUJH 9DVVLOLRX &KDLUSHUVRQ
5XEHQ <HYVWLJQH\HY
0DVDUX <RVKLWRPL
([ 2IILFLR
+DQV - $ YDQ *LQNHO 5HFWRU RI 818
*LRYDQQL $QGUHD &RUQLD 'LUHFWRU RI 818 :,'(5

818 :RUOG ,QVWLWXWH IRU 'HYHORSPHQW (FRQRPLFV 5HVHDUFK 818 :,'(5 ZDV HVWDEOLVKHG E\
WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 8QLYHUVLW\ DV LWV ILUVW UHVHDUFK DQG WUDLQLQJ FHQWUH DQG
VWDUWHG ZRUN LQ +HOVLQNL )LQODQG LQ 7KH SXUSRVH RI WKH ,QVWLWXWH LV WR
XQGHUWDNH DSSOLHG UHVHDUFK DQG SROLF\ DQDO\VLV RQ VWUXFWXUDO FKDQJHV DIIHFWLQJ
WKH GHYHORSLQJ DQG WUDQVLWLRQDO HFRQRPLHV WR SURYLGH D IRUXP IRU WKH DGYRFDF\
RI SROLFLHV OHDGLQJ WR UREXVW HTXLWDEOH DQG HQYLURQPHQWDOO\ VXVWDLQDEOH
JURZWK DQG WR SURPRWH FDSDFLW\ VWUHQJWKHQLQJ DQG WUDLQLQJ LQ WKH ILHOG RI
HFRQRPLF DQG VRFLDO SROLF\ PDNLQJ ,WV ZRUN LV FDUULHG RXW E\ VWDII UHVHDUFKHUV DQG
YLVLWLQJ VFKRODUV LQ +HOVLQNL DQG WKURXJK QHWZRUNV RI FROODERUDWLQJ VFKRODUV
DQG LQVWLWXWLRQV DURXQG WKH ZRUOG

818 :RUOG ,QVWLWXWH IRU 'HYHORSPHQW (FRQRPLFV 5HVHDUFK 818 :,'(5

.DWDMDQRNDQODLWXUL %

+HOVLQNL )LQODQG
&RS\ULJKW È 818 :,'(5

&DPHUD UHDG\ W\SHVFULSW SUHSDUHG E\ /LLVD 5RSRQHQ DW

818 :,'(5 3ULQWHG DW 3LNDSDLQR 3DDWHODLQHQ 2\ +HOVLQNL

7KH YLHZV H[SUHVVHG LQ WKLV SXEOLFDWLRQ DUH WKRVH RI WKH DXWKRU V

3XEOLFDWLRQ GRHV QRW LPSO\ HQGRUVHPHQW E\ WKH ,QVWLWXWH RU WKH
8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 8QLYHUVLW\ RI DQ\ RI WKH YLHZV H[SUHVVHG

,661
,6%1
 &217(176

$%675$&7 LY

, %$&.*5281'
,QWURGXFWLRQ
$VVXPSWLRQV FRQFHUQLQJ WKH KRXVHKROG WKH FRQVXPHU
DQG WKH SURGXFHU
(OHPHQWV RI WKH FRQVXPHU WKHRU\
,, %(&.(5 6 1(: +286(+2/' (&2120,& 7+(25<
2YHUYLHZ
7KH KRXVHKROG SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ
&RPSDUDWLYH DGYDQWDJH LQ WKH DOORFDWLRQ RI WLPH
(PSLULFDO WHVWV RI WKH XQLWDU\ KRXVHKROG PRGHO
,,, +80$1( +80$1 &$3,7$/
([SODLQLQJ WKH FRQFHSW RI KXPDQH KXPDQ FDSLWDO
7KH LQWULQVLFDOO\ QRQ PDUNHW DVSHFWV RI KXPDQH
KXPDQ FDSLWDO
,9 7+( &2//(&7,9( 02'(/6 2) 7+( +286(+2/'
7KH YDULRXV DSSURDFKHV
(IILFLHQW FRRSHUDWLYH PRGHOV
%DUJDLQLQJ PRGHOV
1RQ FRRSHUDWLYH PRGHOV
9 $ &5,7,48(
2YHUVLPSOLILFDWLRQ RI UHDOLW\
7KH VHOI LQWHUHVWHG KXPDQ EHLQJ
+DUPRQ\ DOWUXLVP DQG FDULQJ ZLWKLQ D KRXVHKROG
9, 6800$5< $1' &21&/86,216
6XPPDU\
&RQFOXVLRQV
$33(1',; 7$%/(
$ FRPSDULVRQ RI PDLQ IHDWXUHV RI WKH YDULRXV HFRQRPLF PRGHOV
5()(5(1&(6

LLL
 $%675$&7

7KH DLP RI WKLV SDSHU LV WR UHYLHZ WKH SULQFLSDO DVVXPSWLRQV DQG DVSHFWV
RI WKH XQLWDU\ KRXVHKROG PRGHO DQG FROOHFWLYH PRGHOV RI KRXVHKROG
EHKDYLRXU (PSLULFDO VWXGLHV DUH SUHVHQWHG WR DVVHVV ZKHWKHU WKH
WKHRULHV FDQ RIIHU DGHTXDWH GHVFULSWLRQV RI KRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU DQG WR
H[DPLQH WKH W\SHV RI SROLF\ LPSOLFDWLRQV WKDW FDQ EH GUDZQ IURP WKHVH 7KH
SDSHU FRQFOXGHV WKDW WKH PRGHOV UHYLHZHG ODFN WKH DQDO\WLFDO WRROV
WR SURYLGH DQ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH UHDOLW\ RI KRXVHKROGV 7KHRULHV DUH
XQUHDOLVWLF DQG WKHUHIRUH DUH RI OLWWOH XVH LQ WKH GHVLJQ RI SROLFLHV
RU SURMHFWV ZKLFK HQGHDYRXU WR KHOS SHRSOH

7KH UHYLHZ RI WKH WKHRULHV RI WKH KRXVHKROG VKRZV WKDW QR SDUWLFXODU

DSSURDFK LV VXIILFLHQWO\ DGYDQFHG WR GRPLQDWH WKH ILHOG RI KRXVHKROG
HFRQRPLFV 7HUPLQRORJ\ XVHG LQ KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLF WKHRULHV UHOLHV
H[FHVVLYHO\ RQ FRQFHSWV IURP WKHRULHV RQ FRQVXPHU FKRLFH RU RI WKH ILUP
DQG HYHQ RQ WKH WKHRU\ RI LQWHUQDWLRQDO WUDGH FRPSDUDWLYH DGYDQWDJH
7KHVH VLPLODULWLHV FDXVH SUREOHPV ZKHQ WKHVH ZHOO NQRZQ WKHRULHV DUH
XWLOL]HG LQ DQ HIIRUW WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH FRPSOH[ RSHUDWLRQV DQG
EHKDYLRXU RI KRXVHKROGV LQ YDULRXV FXOWXUHV DQG VRFLHWLHV

7KH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRULHV DUH EDVLFDOO\ IRXQGHG RQ UDWKHU

VLPSOLVWLF DVVXPSWLRQV RI KXPDQ EHKDYLRXU 7KH\ RIIHU DQ HDV\ ZD\
RI HOXGLQJ WKH LQWULFDWH DQG FKDOOHQJLQJ SUREOHPV SRVHG E\
KRXVHKROGV DQG WKHLU HFRQRPLF DQG VRFLDO IXQFWLRQV

7R LPSURYH WKH ZHOO EHLQJ RI WKH KRXVHKROG LQFOXGLQJ DOO PHPEHUV

LV QRW GHSHQGHQW RQ WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI PDUNHW HFRQRP\
SULQFLSOHV RQO\ 1RQ PDUNHW EHKDYLRXU VXFK DV VHFXULW\ FORVHQHVV
KXPDQLW\ DQG VRFLDO FRQQHFWLRQV LV MXVW DV LPSRUWDQW

7KHUH LV DQ XUJHQW QHHG WR HODERUDWH UHDOLVWLF KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLF

WKHRULHV VR DV WR EUHDN RXW RI WKH ERXQGDULHV DQG OLPLWV WKDW ROG
WKHRULHV KDYH FRQILQHG DQDO\VWV DQG SUDFWLWLRQHUV IRU VR ORQJ 7KH
GHYHORSPHQW RI D QHZ HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ RI WKH KRXVHKROG UHTXLUHV WKH
LQFRUSRUDWLRQ RI KXPDQH DVSHFWV RI KRXVHKROG RSHUDWLRQV LQWR WKH
WKHRUHWLFDO DVVXPSWLRQV $ FRPSOHWHO\ QHZ HFRQRPLF YLHZSRLQW VKRXOG
EH DGRSWHG WR VHH WKH KXPDQ EHLQJ DQG KHU HFRQRPLF RSHUDWLRQV WKURXJK
D EURDGHU IUDPHZRUN ZKLFK LQFOXGHV WKH PDUNHW V\VWHP DV D VSHFLDO FDVH

7KHUH LV DQ XUJHQW QHHG²DQG WKLV VKRXOG QRW EH XQGHUHVWLPDWHG²WR GHVLJQ

UHDOLVWLF KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLF WKHRULHV VR DV WR RYHUFRPH WKH FRQILQHV

LY
LPSRVHG E\ WKH ROG WKHRULHV RQ DQDO\VWV DQG SUDFWLWLRQHUV IRU VR ORQJ
7KH GHYHORSPHQW RI D QHZ HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ RI WKH KRXVHKROG UHTXLUHV WKH
EUDYH LQFRUSRUDWLRQ RI WKH KXPDQH DVSHFWV RI KRXVHKROG RSHUDWLRQV
LQWR WKHRU\ DVVXPSWLRQV $ FRPSOHWHO\ QHZ HFRQRPLF YLHZSRLQW VKRXOG EH
DGRSWHG WR VHH WKH KXPDQ EHLQJ DQG KLV HFRQRPLF RSHUDWLRQV LQ D
EURDGHU IUDPHZRUN ZKLFK LQFOXGHV WKH PDUNHW V\VWHP DV D VSHFLDO FDVH

Y
 , %$&.*5281'

,QWURGXFWLRQ
(FRQRPLF WKHRULHV RI WKH KRXVHKROG WU\ WR FDSWXUH WKH FRPSOH[ VWUXFWXUHV
RI KRXVHKROGV DQG WKHLU EHKDYLRXU ,QIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH GHPRJUDSKLF
VWUXFWXUH GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ SURFHVV UHVRXUFH DOORFDWLRQ LQFRPH HDUQLQJ
PHFKDQLVPV DQG JHQGHU GLYLVLRQ RI ODERXU LV D SUHUHTXLVLWH IRU
XQGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH HIIHFWV RI SXEOLF RU SULYDWH VHFWRU LQWHUYHQWLRQV DW
WKH PLFUROHYHO DV ZHOO DV WKHLU PDFUROHYHO FRQVHTXHQFHV

7KH LQWURGXFWRU\ SDUW RI WKH SDSHU SUHVHQWV WKH REMHFWLYHV RI WKH VWXG\
DQG DQ RYHUYLHZ RI WKH VXEMHFW 7KH KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLF PRGHOV GHVFULEHG LQ
WKLV SDSHU DUH GLYLGHG LQWR WZR W\SHV WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO RI KRXVHKROG
EHKDYLRXU DQG FROOHFWLYH PRGHOV RI KRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU $OGHUPDQ HW DO
$OO KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLF PRGHOV SUHVHQWHG KHUH EHORQJ
WR WKH WUDGLWLRQ RI QHRFODVVLFDO HFRQRPLFV /LNHZLVH DOO
PRGHOV UHYLHZHG DUH EDVHG RQ WKH FRQVXPHU FKRLFH WKHRU\

7KH VHFRQG VHFWLRQ RI WKH SDSHU UHYLHZV %HFNHU V QHZ KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLF
WKHRU\ ZKLFK LV WKH PRVW FRPSOHWH SUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WKH XQLWDU\ KRXVHKROG
PRGHO 7KH XQLWDU\ PRGHO LV WKH SUHYDLOLQJ ZLGHO\ DSSOLHG PRGHO RI UHVRXUFH
DQG ODERXU WLPH GLVWULEXWLRQ ZLWKLQ D KRXVHKROG 6HFWLRQ WKUHH SUHVHQWV
D QHZ FRQFHSW LQ WKH DQDO\VLV RI KRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU WKH KXPDQH KXPDQ
FDSLWDO 7KH VHFWLRQ VWDUWV E\ H[SODLQLQJ WKH FRQFHSW RI KXPDQH KXPDQ
FDSLWDO DQG WKHQ JRHV RQ WR D PRUH GHWDLOHG DQDO\VLV RI WKH LQWULQVLFDOO\
QRQ PDUNHW DVSHFWV RI WKH FRQFHSW

7KH FROOHFWLYH PRGHOV RI KRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU UHYLHZHG LQ VHFWLRQ IRXU

DUH XQGHU FRQVWDQW HYROXWLRQ 7KH ODWHVW EXW VWLOO LQFRPSOHWH
PRGLILFDWLRQV DWWHPSW WR LQFOXGH WKH JHQGHU GLPHQVLRQ LQ WKH
FROOHFWLYH PRGHO 7KH ILUVW RI WKHVH PRGHOV VR FDOOHG EDUJDLQLQJ PRGHOV
DUH EDVHG RQ WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO RI KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLF EHKDYLRXU :KLOH
WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO FRQVLGHUV RQH SHUVRQ DV UHSUHVHQWLQJ WKH HQWLUH
KRXVHKROG EDUJDLQLQJ PRGHOV KDYH WZR DFWRUV ZLWKLQ D KRXVHKROG ZKRVH
LQWHUHVWV GLIIHU DQG WKXV EDUJDLQLQJ UHVXOWV

,Q VHFWLRQ ILYH VRPH RI WKH PDLQ FULWLFLVPV RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO KRXVHKROG

HFRQRPLF PRGHOV DUH UHYLHZHG 7KH FRQWURYHUVLDO LVVXHV SUHVHQWHG LQ WKLV

SDSHU FRQFHQWUDWH PDLQO\ RQ WKH VR FDOOHG IHPLQLVW HFRQRPLVWV DQG WKHLU

EROG DUJXPHQWV DJDLQVW WKH PDQ\ DVVXPSWLRQV KHOG E\ WKH WUDGLWLRQDO YLHZ
$UJXDEO\ WKLV FULWLTXH VWLOO KDV PDQ\ VKRUWFRPLQJV DQG WKHVH HFRQRPLVWV
KDYH QRW EHHQ DEOH WR SUHVHQW D ZHOO GHVLJQHG DOWHUQDWLYH WR WKH
WUDGLWLRQDO PRGHOV 1HYHUWKHOHVV WKH FRQWURYHUV\ EULQJV LQWHUHVWLQJ DQG
FRORXUIXO LGHDV ZKLFK VKRXOG EH FRQVLGHUHG FDUHIXOO\ LQ GHYHORSLQJ
KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLF WKHRULHV IXUWKHU )LQDOO\ VHFWLRQ VL[ SURYLGHV D VXPPDU\
DQG GUDZV SROLF\ FRQFOXVLRQV

7KH SDSHU EULHIO\ UHIHUV WR VRPH RI WKH ILQGLQJV DQG UHVXOWV DV ZHOO DV SROLF\
LPSOLFDWLRQV RI HPSLULFDO WHVWV RI KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLF WKHRULHV 7KHVH
WHVWV HQGHDYRXU WR GHWHUPLQH ZKHWKHU RU QRW WKHRULHV JLYH D UHOLDEOH
SLFWXUH RI UHDO OLIH DFWLYLWLHV 0RVW VWXGLHV KDYH FRQFHQWUDWHG RQ
H[DPLQLQJ WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO RI KRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU 0XFK OHVV HIIRUW KDV EHHQ
JLYHQ WR FROOHFWLYH PRGHOV DQG SDUWLFXODUO\ WKH GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ
YDULRXV FROOHFWLYH PRGHOV 5XXVNDQHQ 6WLOO IHZHU WHVWV FDQ LOOXVWUDWH
WKH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI SROLF\ LQWHUYHQWLRQ RQ KRXVHKROGV

7KHUH DUH PDQ\ GLIILFXOWLHV LQ WHVWLQJ WKHRULHV RQH RI WKH ELJJHVW

EHLQJ WKH ODFN RI VXLWDEOH DQG DGHTXDWH GDWD RQ FROOHFWLYH PRGHOV
RI KRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU 7KHVH GLIILFXOWLHV FDQ OHDG DW WLPHV WR PL[HG
UHVXOWV D IDFW ZKLFK DJDLQ PDNHV SROLF\ LPSOLFDWLRQV FRPSOLFDWHG

$VVXPSWLRQV FRQFHUQLQJ WKH KRXVHKROG

WKH FRQVXPHU DQG WKH SURGXFHU
,W LV REYLRXV WKDW ILQGLQJ D WHQDEOH GHILQLWLRQ RI WKH
KRXVHKROG LV D FRPSOLFDWHG WDVN +RXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU
LQFOXGHV PDQ\ GLPHQVLRQV DQG LV DIIHFWHG E\ PDQ\ IDFWRUV +RZ FDQ
ZH FRPELQH DOO WKH DVSHFWV RI KXPDQ OLIH LQWR RQH GHILQLWLRQ
ZKLOH NHHSLQJ LW DW WKH VDPH WLPH SODXVLEOH DQG VLPSOH"

+RXVHKROG DV D UDWLRQDO LQGLYLGXDO

$OO HFRQRPLF PRGHOV DVVXPH WKDW WKH KRXVHKROG LV D
UDWLRQDOO\ EHKDYLQJ XQLW 7KH YDOXH RI WLPH RI KRXVHKROG
PHPEHUV DQG WKH YDOXH RI FRQVXPSWLRQ DQG SURGXFWLRQ RI
JRRGV DUH GHWHUPLQHG E\ PDUNHW PHFKDQLVPV

7UDGLWLRQDOO\ WKH FRQVXPHU HFRQRPLF WKHRU\²WKH EDVLV RI RWKHU

QHRFODVVLFDO KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLF WKHRULHV²FRQVLGHUV WKH FRQVXPHU DQ
LQGLYLGXDO LPSO\LQJ WKDW WKH VLQJOH KHDG RI D KRXVHKROG LV WKH FRQVXPHU %XW
LV WKLV UHDOO\ DQ DSSURSULDWH XQLW IRU HFRQRPLF DQDO\VLV" ,I DQ LQGLYLGXDO LV
WDNHQ DV WKH FRQVXPHU WKLV UDLVHV FHUWDLQ TXHULHV IRU H[DPSOH ZKHWKHU
FKLOGUHQ DUH FRQVXPHUV ,QVWHDG WKH FRQVXPHU XQLW VKRXOG EH UHJDUGHG
DV WZR RU PRUH SHRSOH ZKR FRPSULVH D KRXVHKROG 'HFLVLRQV RQ SXUFKDVHV
VDOHV DQG FRQVXPSWLRQ FDQ WKXV EH DQDO\VHG DV GHFLVLRQV RI WKH JURXS

7KH XQLWDU\ PRGHO DVVXPHV WKDW GHFLVLRQV ZLWKLQ D KRXVHKROG DUH

PDGH MRLQWO\ DQG WKDW WKH KRXVHKROG PD[LPL]HV D VLQJOH VHW RI
REMHFWLYHV IRU DOO LWV PHPEHUV (OOLV $ KRXVHKROG DFWV DV D VLQJOH
XQLW ZKHQ DOO LWV PHPEHUV KDYH H[DFWO\ WKH VDPH SUHIHUHQFHV DQG
VXEVHTXHQWO\ WKH VDPH XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQV ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV DOO
KRXVHKROG UHVRXUFHV DUH SRROHG ,Q WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO VRFLDO KDUPRQ\
ZLWKRXW FRQIOLFW LV WKH FKLHI FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI WKH KRXVHKROG

5XXVNDQHQ OLVWV WKUHH UHDVRQV IRU XWLOL]LQJ WKH VLQJOH XWLOLW\

IXQFWLRQ WR UHSUHVHQW WKH HQWLUH KRXVHKROG DQG WKH SUHIHUHQFHV RI
DOO PHPEHUV D GLFWDWRU DQ DOWUXLVWLF IDPLO\ DSSOLHG LQ %HFNHU V QHZ
KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ DQG D VRFLDO ZHOIDUH IXQFWLRQ

:KHQ D GLFWDWRU LV FRQVLGHUHG WKH DOO UXOLQJ KHDG RI D KRXVHKROG LW

LPSOLHV WKDW RQH LQGLYLGXDO LV DVVXPHG WR PDNH GHFLVLRQV ZLWKLQ WKH
KRXVHKROG DQG NHHS LWV RSHUDWLRQV LQ OLQH +RZHYHU DOO KRXVHKROG
PHPEHUV GR QRW QHFHVVDULO\ EHKDYH YROXQWDULO\ LQ SUHIHUHQFH
PD[LPL]DWLRQ DQG LQ FRQFXUUHQFH WR WKH GLFWDWRU V RUGHUV ,I YLROHQFH LV
SUHVHQW ZLWKLQ D KRXVHKROG LW LQGLFDWHV WKDW VRPHERG\ WKH GLFWDWRU
LV IRUFLQJ RWKHU PHPEHUV WR DFFHSW WKH DVVXPHG FRPPRQ JRRG :KHQ
WKHRULHV DQG PRGHOV UHIHU WR YLROHQFH DV RQH RI WKH PHDQV RI DFTXLULQJ
WKH FRPPRQ JRRG RI D KRXVHKROG WKLV YLROHQFH LV QRW FRQGHPQHG
*DOEUDLWK VWDWHV VRPHZKDW VWURQJO\ WKDW QHRFODVVLFDO HFRQRPLFV
UHVROYHV WKH SUREOHP RI QRQH[SUHVVLRQ RI LQGLYLGXDO SHUVRQDOLW\ DQG
SUHIHUHQFHV E\ LJQRULQJ WKH VXERUGLQDWLRQ RI WKH LQGLYLGXDO PDLQO\
ZRPHQ DQG WKH LQQHU UHODWLRQVKLSV ZLWKLQ D KRXVHKROG

)XUWKHUPRUH WKHUH LV D PDMRU SUREOHP LQ WKH GHILQLWLRQ RI WKH FRPPRQ

JRRG :KR GHFLGHV RU ZKR KDV D ULJKW WR GHFLGH ZKDW LV WKH EHVW SRVVLEOH
()RXWFRPH IRU WKH KRXVHKROG DQG IRU DOO LWV PHPEHUV" 7KHUH LV DOVR WKH
TXHVWLRQ RQ ZKDW EDVLV GRHV RQH PHPEHU EHFRPH WKH KHDG RI D KRXVHKROG"

:LWKLQ WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WUDGLWLRQ WKHUH KDYH EHHQ VRPH HIIRUWV WR VROYH
WKH SUREOHP RI LQGLYLGXDO SUHIHUHQFHV E\ IRUPLQJ DJJUHJDWH SUHIHUHQFHV RU

%HUJVWU|P FODLPV WKDW WKH QDWXUDO FRXUVH RI QHRFODVVLFDO HFRQRPLFV QHFHVVDULO\ LV

QRW WR DVVXPH WKDW KRXVHKROGV DFW DV VLQJOH DJHQWV +RZHYHU WKH WHUP XQLWDU\ PRGHO
LV VXIILFLHQWO\ PRGHUDWH WR HQFRPSDVV VHYHUDO PRGHOV ZKLFK FRQVLGHU D KRXVHKROG RU
IDPLO\ LQ DJJUHJDWH EHKDYLQJ DV LI LW LV PD[LPL]LQJ WKH IDPLO\ XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQ
DYHUDJH XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQV ZKLFK ZRXOG WKHQ LQGLFDWH WKH OHYHO RI ZHOO EHLQJ
RI WKH ZKROH KRXVHKROG VRFLDO ZHOIDUH IXQFWLRQ (DFK LQGLYLGXDO XWLOLW\
IXQFWLRQ FRXOG EH ODEHOOHG ZLWK D SUHGHWHUPLQHG ZHLJKW )RU H[DPSOH 6HQ
UHI $OGHUPDQ HW DO KDV WDNHQ WKH ZHOIDUH RI WKH IDPLO\
DV WKH ZHLJKWHG VXP RI WKH QHW XWLOLW\ RI DOO PHPEHUV

+RXVHKROG DV D SURGXFHU
7KH XQLWDU\ PRGHO OLNH WKH WUDGLWLRQDO FRQVXPHU WKHRU\ VHHV WKH
KRXVHKROG QRW RQO\ DV D FRQVXPHU EXW DOVR DV D SURGXFHU ,Q WKLV FDVH
WKH KRXVHKROG LV FRPSDUDEOH WR D FRPSHWLWLYH ILUP LQ D PDUNHW
HFRQRP\ $ KRXVHKROG IDFHV D SURGXFWLRQ SRVVLELOLW\ IURQWLHU :LWKLQ D
JLYHQ WLPH SHULRG D KRXVHKROG KDV OLPLWHG UHVRXUFHV EXW DOVR
DOWHUQDWLYH XVHV DQG IL[HG WHFKQRORJLHV IRU KRPH SURGXFWLRQ

,I WKH KRXVHKROG LV YLHZHG DV D ILUP RU DOWHUQDWLYHO\ DV D FRQVXPHU RQO\

LW VLPSOLILHV ERWK WKH VWUXFWXUH DQG RSHUDWLRQV RI WKH KRXVHKROG
FRQVLGHUDEO\ OHDYLQJ SROLF\PDNHUV ZLWKRXW D IXOO XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH
HIIHFWV RI YDULRXV SROLFLHV RQ WKH PHPEHUV RI D KRXVHKROG 3URGXFWLRQ LQ D
KRXVHKROG KDV WKH DFWXDO ZHOO EHLQJ RI LWV PHPEHUV DV WKH XOWLPDWH
JRDO 7KH REMHFWLYH RI DQ HQWHUSULVH LV SURILWV XVXDOO\ IRU WKH RZQHU ZKR
PD\ EH GLIIHUHQW IURP WKH ZRUNHUV EXW IRU D VHOILVKO\ DFWLQJ FRQVXPHU LW LV
WKH PD[LPL]DWLRQ RI KLV XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQ

$WWHPSWLQJ WR H[SODLQ KRXVHKROG SURGXFWLRQ E\ DQDORJ\ L H E\ DSSO\LQJ

WKH WKHRU\ RI WKH ILUP DOVR PLQLPL]HV RU WRWDOO\ LJQRUHV PDQ\
SURGXFWLRQ DFWLYLWLHV SHUIRUPHG ZLWKLQ WKH KRXVHKROG )URP D
QHRFODVVLFDO PLFURHFRQRPLFV SRLQW RI YLHZ JRRGV ZKLFK FDQQRW EH
H[FKDQJHG LQ D PDUNHW DUH QRW D FRPPRGLW\ &RQVHTXHQWO\ DV KRXVHKROG
SURGXFWLRQ LV QRW XVXDOO\ H[FKDQJHG LQ PDUNHWV H[FHSW LQ
DJULFXOWXUDO KRXVHKROGV WKH FRPPRGLW\ SURGXFHG LV QRW ODEHOOHG
ZLWK D PDUNHW SULFH 7KLV LQWURGXFHV WKH TXHVWLRQ ZKDW KDSSHQV LI QR
PDUNHWV H[LVW DV IRU H[DPSOH LQ VRPH SDUWV RI UHPRWH $IULFD "

8QHTXDO GLVWULEXWLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH KRXVHKROG

,Q WKH SDVW HFRQRPLVWV KDYH QRW SDLG DWWHQWLRQ WR WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI
UHVRXUFHV DQG FRPPRGLWLHV ZLWKLQ WKH KRXVHKROG EHFDXVH WUDGLWLRQDO HFRQRPLF
WRROV DUH QRW ZHOO VXLWHG IRU WKHLU DQDO\VLV ,W LV DVVXPHG WKDW LQHTXDOLW\ LQ
UHVRXUFH GLVWULEXWLRQ LV JHQHUDWHG E\ SUHIHUHQFHV VKDUHG E\ DOO KRXVHKROG
PHPEHUV WKDW VXSSRUW WKLV LQHTXDOLW\ 7KH XQHTXDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI

$FFRUGLQJ WR &KD\DQRY DQ DEVROXWH PLVLQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI WKH SHDVDQW IDPLO\ IDUP LV

WR YLHZ LW DV D EXVLQHVV RU DQ HQWHUSULVH RI D FDSLWDOLVW VRUW 7KRUQHU HW DO

UHVRXUFHV PD\ HYHQ EH VHHQ WR EH HIILFLHQW IRU WKH
KRXVHKROG $OGHUPDQ HW DO
0XFK HYLGHQFH KDV EHHQ SUHVHQWHG RQ WKH XQHTXDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI
UHVRXUFHV DQG FRPPRGLWLHV ZLWKLQ D KRXVHKROG 7KLV GLVWULEXWLRQ LV
DIIHFWHG E\ PDQ\ FXOWXUDO DQG WUDGLWLRQDO QRUPV DQG ODZV )RU H[DPSOH LQ
PDQ\ GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV PHQ KDYH HDW ILUVW WKHQ ZRPHQ DQG FKLOGUHQ
DQG LI IRRG LV LQ VKRUW VXSSO\ WKHVH EHFRPH XQGHUQRXULVKHG 6FDUFH
UHVRXUFHV DUH DOORFDWHG EHWZHHQ FRPSHWLQJ HQGV WKXV WKH QDWXUH RI
WKLV V\VWHP RI GLVWULEXWLRQ FRXOG EH YLHZHG DV HFRQRPLF

)RUWLQ DQG /DFURL[ FODLP WKDW ZLWK WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO LW LV LPSRVVLEOH WR
UHYLHZ LQGLYLGXDO SUHIHUHQFHV RI KRXVHKROG PHPEHUV RU WKH SDUDPHWHUV
WKDW FKDUDFWHUL]H WKH LQWHUQDO SURFHVVHV GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH REVHUYHG
RXWFRPHV &RQVHTXHQWO\ LW LV DOVR LPSRVVLEOH WR DQDO\VH
LQWUDKRXVHKROG LQHTXDOLWLHV RU H[WHUQDO WUDQVIHUV WR
LQWUDKRXVHKROG UHVRXUFH DOORFDWLRQ ZLWK WKLV PRGHO 7KLV IDFW VKRXOG
EH UHFRJQL]HG LQ GUDZLQJ SROLF\ LPSOLFDWLRQV $V &KLDSSRUL SRLQWV RXW
WUDGLWLRQDO PRGHOV FDQ EH LQDGHTXDWH DQG PLVOHDGLQJ LQ VXFK SROLF\
LVVXHV DV WKH ZHOIDUH RI LQGLYLGXDOV EHFDXVH WKHVH IRFXV RQ LQFRPH
GLVWULEXWLRQ DFURVV KRXVHKROGV QRW ZLWKLQ WKH KRXVHKROG HYHQ WKRXJK
WKH ZLWKLQ KRXVHKROG GLVWULEXWLRQ LV FHQWUDO WR LQGLYLGXDO ZHOIDUH

)LQGLQJ DOWHUQDWLYHV WR WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO

%ULHIO\ WKH DUJXPHQWV RI WKH WUDGLWLRQDO HFRQRPLVWV UHYHDO WKHLU
UHOXFWDQFH WR YLHZ WKH KRXVHKROG DV DQ LPSRUWDQW HFRQRPLF DFWRU ,W LV
DQ HDV\ EXW PLVOHDGLQJ DWWHPSW WR VROYH WKH KRXVHKROG SUREOHP ZLWK
WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH WKHRULHV RI WKH FRQVXPHU RU RI WKH ILUP )
XUWKHUPRUH LW LV REYLRXV WKDW WKH DSSURDFK ZKLFK FRQVLGHUV WKH
KRXVHKROG WR FRQVLVW RI RQO\ RQH PHPEHU²WKH DXWKRULWDULDQ
SDWULDUFK²LV D VLPSOLILHG VROXWLRQ WR D FRPSOLFDWHG SUREOHP

,QWUDKRXVHKROG LQHTXDOLW\ FDQ EH D PDMRU GUDZEDFN RI SXEOLF SROLF\ WKDW DLPV WR SURPRWH
WKH ZHOO EHLQJ RI LQGLYLGXDOV +DGGDG DQG .DQEXU KDYH H[DPLQHG LQWUDKRXVHKROG LQHTXDOLW\
LQ DQ HIIRUW WR GHWHUPLQH WKH VHULRXVQHVV RI LJQRULQJ WKLV IDFWRU 7KH\ QRWH WKDW PRVW
SROLF\ DQDO\VLV XQWLO UHFHQWO\ KDV HTXDWHG WKH ZHOO EHLQJ RI WKH LQGLYLGXDO ZLWK WKH
DYHUDJH ZHOO EHLQJ RI WKH KRXVHKROG EHFDXVH DFFRUGLQJ WR DVVXPSWLRQ UHVRXUFHV ZLWKLQ WKH
KRXVHKROG DUH DOORFDWHG DFFRUGLQJ WR QHHGV +RZHYHU D JURZLQJ ERG\ RI OLWHUDWXUH KDV VKRZQ
WKDW WKLV LQ UHDOLW\ LV QRW WKH FDVH +DGGDG DQG
.DQEXU DUJXH WKDW LI WKH SULPDU\ REMHFWLYH LV WR HQDEOH SROLF\PDNHUV WR HVWLPDWH WKH
OHYHOV RI LQHTXDOLW\ DQG SRYHUW\ LQWUDKRXVHKROG GDWD QHHGV WR EH FROOHFWHG +RZHYHU LI
WKH REMHFWLYH LV WR GHWHUPLQH WKH SDWWHUQV RI LQHTXDOLW\ DQG SRYHUW\ DFURVV NH\ VRFLR
HFRQRPLF JURXSV WKH FRVWV DQG EHQHILWV RI LQWUDKRXVHKROG GDWD
FROOHFWLRQ VKRXOG EH DVVHVVHG FDUHIXOO\ 7KHVH DXWKRUV DOVR HPSKDVL]H
WKDW WKHLU UHVXOWV QHHG WR EH FRQILUPHG ZLWK RWKHU GDWDVHWV
&ROOHFWLYH PRGHOV RI KRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU WU\ WR FDSWXUH WKH GLIIHUHQW
SUHIHUHQFHV FRQIOLFWV DQG LQHTXDOLWLHV HYROYLQJ DPRQJ KRXVHKROG PHPEHUV 7KHVH
PRGHOV SUHVFULEH WR WKH LQGLYLGXDOLW\ RI KRXVHKROG PHPEHUV UDWKHU WKDQ WKH
MRLQW GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ SURFHVV &ROOHFWLYH PRGHOV DUH VRPHWLPHV GLYLGHG LQWR
WZR W\SHV FRRSHUDWLYH DQG QRQ FRRSHUDWLYH &RRSHUDWLYH PRGHOV DVVXPH WKDW
LQGLYLGXDOV IRUP D KRXVHKROG LI WKLV RSWLRQ LV PRUH EHQHILFLDO IRU HDFK SDUW\ WKDQ
UHPDLQLQJ XQDWWDFKHG 1RQ FRRSHUDWLYH PRGHOV LPSO\ WKDW LQGLYLGXDOV KDYH
VHSDUDWH HFRQRPLHV ZLWKLQ RQH KRXVHKROG DQG WKH\ GR QRW HQWHU LQWR
HQIRUFHDEOH FRQWUDFWV ZLWK HDFK RWKHU

6LPLODUO\ KRZHYHU DV PRUH YDULDEOHV DUH LQFOXGHG LQ WKH DQDO\VLV WKH

FROOHFWLYH PRGHOV LQWURGXFH FRPSOH[LW\ DQG DGGLWLRQDO DVVXPSWLRQV
VHH IRU H[DPSOH 6WUDXVV DQG 7KRPDV 7KLV DJDLQ FUHDWHV SUREOHPV LI WKH
IRUPXODWLRQ RI SXEOLF SROLFLHV LV EDVHG RQ WKHVH PRGHOV

7R ILQG D PRUH IOH[LEOH GHILQLWLRQ RI WKH KRXVHKROG DQG LWV

RSHUDWLRQV RQH RSWLRQ OLHV LQ WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI UH GHILQLQJ WKH
FRQFHSW RI WKH KRXVHKROG WR UHIOHFW WKH IRFXV RI WKH UHVHDUFK LWV
JHRJUDSKLFDO DUHD DQG SXUSRVH (QYLURQPHQW FXOWXUDO EDFNJURXQG DQG
KLVWRULFDO VHWWLQJ FDQ IXUWKHU DIIHFW WKLV GHILQLWLRQ 0DWWLOD

,Q WKLV VWXG\ WKH KRXVHKROG LV UHFRJQL]HG DV D JURXS RI PRUH WKDQ RQH

LQGLYLGXDO DOWKRXJK D VLQJOH LQGLYLGXDO FDQ DOVR FRQVWLWXWH D KRXVHKROG
ZKR VKDUH HFRQRPLF DFWLYLWLHV QHFHVVDU\ IRU WKH VXUYLYDO RI WKH KRXVHKROG
DQG IRU WKH JHQHUDWLRQ RI ZHOO EHLQJ IRU LWV PHPEHUV $OWKRXJK KRXVHKROG
PHPEHUV KDYH YDU\LQJ DLPV DQG REMHFWLYHV DV ZHOO DV LQGLYLGXDO JRDOV WKH\
DOVR VKDUH D FRPPRQ FRQFHUQ IRU WKH ZHOO EHLQJ RI HDFK RWKHU 7KH
KRXVHKROG IRVWHUV HFRQRPLF DQG VRFLDO UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ LWV PHPEHUV
LQWUDKRXVHKROG UHODWLRQV EXW DOVR EHWZHHQ KRXVHKROGV LQWHUKRXVHKROG
UHODWLRQV DQG PDLQWDLQV D PXWXDO UHODWLRQVKLS ZLWK WKH HFRQRP\ DQG
VRFLHW\ RI LWV LPPHGLDWH ORFDWLRQ 7KXV DOO PLFUR DQG PDFURHFRQRPLF SROLFLHV
LQIOXHQFH WKH VWUXFWXUH DQG RSHUDWLRQ RI KRXVHKROGV

7KH VWXG\ RI KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLFV LV FORVHO\ UHODWHG WR JHQGHU

LVVXHV SDUWLFXODUO\ WKH ZRUN DQG VWDWXV RI ZRPHQ ZLWKLQ WKH
IDPLO\ DQG WKH KRXVHKROG 6HQ IRFXVHV RQ JHQGHU DVSHFWV FXUUHQWO\
HPHUJLQJ LQ KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLF WKHRULHV DQG DUJXHV WKDW 7R
FRQFHQWUDWH RQ IDPLO\ SRYHUW\ LUUHVSHFWLYH RI JHQGHU FDQ EH
PLVOHDGLQJ LQ WHUPV RI ERWK FDXVDWLRQ DQG FRQVHTXHQFHV
(OHPHQWV RI WKH FRQVXPHU WKHRU\
7KH FRQYHQWLRQDO FRQVXPHU WKHRU\ GHILQHV FRQVXPSWLRQ DV WKH XVH RI JRRGV
DQG VHUYLFHV WR VDWLVI\ LPPHGLDWH QHHGV 7KH WKHRU\ DVVXPHV WKDW XWLOLW\
UHVLGHV LQ WKH JRRGV DQG VHUYLFHV WKHPVHOYHV 0DWKHPDWLFDOO\ D FRQVXPHU V
XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQ LV VDLG WR EH D IXQFWLRQ RI JRRGV DQG VHUYLFHV ,W LV WKLV
IXQFWLRQ WKDW WKH FRQVXPHU VXEMHFW WR KHU LQFRPH UHVRXUFHV PD[LPL]HV

7LPH LV QRW DQ LQWHJUDO SDUW RI WKH WUDGLWLRQDO HFRQRPLF

WKHRU\ DQG LWV DQDO\VLV 7KH FRQVXPHU WKHRU\ IRU LQVWDQFH
DVVXPHV WKDW SULFHV RI FRPPRGLWLHV DQG LQGLYLGXDO LQFRPH GR
QRW FKDQJH IRU WKH GXUDWLRQ IRU LQVWDQFH RQH PRQWK RI WKH
VWXG\ RI D FRQVXPHU V FKRLFH )XUWKHUPRUH D FRQVXPHU FKRRVHV
KHU FRQVXPSWLRQ EXQGOH IRU WKH PRQWK LQ D VLQJOH GHFLVLRQ

7KH FRQVXPHU DV D UDWLRQDO LQGLYLGXDO UDQNV WKH DSSURSULDWH

FRQVXPSWLRQ EXQGOHV DFFRUGLQJ WR KHU SUHIHUHQFHV DQG WU\LQJ WR
LGHQWLI\ WKH EHVW DOWHUQDWLYH FKRRVHV WKH EXQGOH ZLWK WKH KLJKHVW
UDQNLQJ 7KH JHQHUDO DVVXPSWLRQ LV WKDW FRQVXPHU SUHIHUHQFH LV HQGRZHG
ZLWK FHUWDLQ SURSHUWLHV ZKLFK JLYH LW D XVHIXO DQDO\WLFDO VWUXFWXUH )RU
H[DPSOH WKH FRQVXPHU LV FDSDEOH RI H[SUHVVLQJ SUHIHUHQFH RU LQGLIIHUHQFH
EHWZHHQ DQ\ SDLU RI FRQVXPSWLRQ EXQGOHV FRPSOHWHQHVV SURSHUW\ DQG WKH
FRQVXPHU QHYHU EHFRPHV VDWLDWHG ZLWK JRRGV QRQ VDWLDWLRQ SURSHUW\ )
XUWKHUPRUH QRQH RI WKH JRRGV DUH UHJDUGHG DV D EDG

$V SULFHV RU LQFRPH FKDQJH WKH FRQVXPHU ZLOO UH GHILQH KLV RSWLPDO

FKRLFH 7KLV ZRXOG LPSO\ WKDW DV SULFHV UHIOHFW SHRSOH V HYDOXDWLRQ RI
JRRGV DQG VHUYLFHV SULFHV FDQ EH XVHG WR DVVHVV WKH ZHOIDUH EHQHILWV
RI SROLF\ SURSRVDOV ZKLFK ZRXOG LQGXFH FKDQJHV LQ FRQVXPSWLRQ 9DULDQ

&ULWLTXH RQ FRQVXPHU SUHIHUHQFHV

&RQVXPHU SUHIHUHQFH SURSHUWLHV DQG WKHLU UHOHYDQFH FDQ EH TXHVWLRQHG
EHFDXVH FRQVXPHUV ODFN FRPSOHWH NQRZOHGJH RI JRRGV DQG VHUYLFHV IRU
H[DPSOH WKH FRPSOHWHQHVV SURSHUW\ LPSOLHV WKDW WKH FRQVXPHU KDV
DEVROXWH DQG SHUIHFW LQIRUPDWLRQ RI WKH JRRGV DV ZHOO DV IRUHVLJKW LQWR
WKH IXWXUH DV LW DIIHFWV KLV FRQVXPSWLRQ SODQV 3HRSOH DUH DVVXPHG WR EH
LQ D SRVLWLRQ WR FRPSDUH DOO SUHVHQWO\ DYDLODEOH PDUNHW JRRGV DV ZHOO
DV DOO IXWXUH JRRGV 7KLV VXUHO\ LV QRW SRVVLEOH

,Q DGGLWLRQ WR FRQVXPHU SUHIHUHQFH SURSHUWLHV DQRWKHU RSHQ TXHVWLRQ

FRQFHUQV WKH UHDVRQ ZK\ XWLOLW\ VWD\V VWDEOH DV WKH FRQVXPHU PRYHV DORQJ
DQ LQGLIIHUHQFH FXUYH" :KHQ WKH FRQVXPHU GXH WR FKDQJHG FLUFXPVWDQFHV
FKRRVHV D GLIIHUHQW VHW RI JRRGV WKDQ SUHYLRXVO\ DQG PRYHV IURP RQH SRLQW
RQ DQ LQGLIIHUHQFH FXUYH WR DQRWKHU SRLQW ZH VWLOO FODLP WKDW VKH
LV HTXDOO\ ZHOO RII LQ ERWK FLUFXPVWDQFHV :K\" %HFDXVH LW LV DVVXPHG
WKDW DOO JRRGV DUH VXEVWLWXWHV 7KLV LV D YHU\ VWURQJ K\SRWKHVLV

7KH WUDGLWLRQDO FRQVXPHU WKHRU\ H[FOXGHV WHFKQRORJLFDO RU PDUNHW

XQFHUWDLQW\ LQ LWV DQDO\VLV ,W LV KRZHYHU REYLRXV WKDW XQFHUWDLQW\
DQG LQFRPSOHWH LQIRUPDWLRQ KDYH DQ HIIHFW RQ FRQVXPHU EHKDYLRXU
FKDQJLQJ EXQGOH GHPDQGV RU HQDEOLQJ EHWWHU GHFLVLRQV

,W FDQ DOVR EH VDLG WKDW WKH WUDGLWLRQDO FRQVXPHU WKHRU\ PDNHV QR HIIRUW
WR H[SODLQ ZKDW LV PHDQW E\ WKH WHUP SUHIHUHQFHV KRZ WKHVH DUH IRUPHG DQG
KRZ WKH\ UHVSRQG WR FKDQJHV LQ WKH VRFLDO DQG HFRQRPLF HQYLURQPHQW RI
LQGLYLGXDOV 7KH WHUP SUHIHUHQFH DQG LWV SXUSRVH DUH WDNHQ DV DQ D[LRP
7KH FRQVXPHU WKHRU\ VLPSO\ LQWURGXFHV WKH SUHIHUHQFH LQGLIIHUHQFH
UHODWLRQ DV D SULPLWLYH FRQFHSW 7R EH DEOH WR SUHGLFW WKH FKRLFH RI
D EXQGOH LQ D JLYHQ VLWXDWLRQ GHWDLOHG NQRZOHGJH RI WKH FRQVXPHU V
SUHIHUHQFHV LV QHHGHG $QG REYLRXVO\ WKH WRROV VXSSOLHG E\ WKH PRGHO
DUH QRW YHU\ XVHIXO LQ WKLV UHJDUG *UDYHOOH DQG 5HHV

7KH XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQ

7KH XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQ LV VLPSO\ WKH ODEHOOLQJ RI FRQVXPHU SUHIHUHQFHV LQGH[LQJ
VWURQJHU SUHIHUHQFHV ZLWK VWURQJHU XWLOLW\ ODEHOV 8WLOLW\ FDQQRW EH
PHDVXUHG LQ DEVROXWH TXDQWLWLHV EHFDXVH WKH XQLW RI PHDVXUHPHQW GHSHQGV
RQ WKH XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQ FKRVHQ (VWROD 7KH RQO\ LPSRUWDQW IDFW LV
GHWHUPLQLQJ ZKHWKHU WKH XWLOLW\ RI RQH EXQGOH RXWZHLJKV DQRWKHU

(DVWZRRG GHILQHV XWLOLW\ DV WKH VDWLVIDFWLRQ GHULYHG E\ D

FRQVXPHU WKURXJK WKH XVH RI JRRGV DQG VHUYLFHV %XW D
KRXVHKROG FDQ JHQHUDWH XWLOLW\ WKURXJK DYHQXHV RWKHU
WKDQ PDUNHW JRRGV IRU H[DPSOH IURP OHLVXUH WLPH RU IURP
QRQ UHVRXUFH DOORFDWLRQV VXFK DV IULHQGVKLS DQG KHDOWK

(DVWZRRG DSSOLHV WKH WHUP XWLOLW\ VRPHZKDW DUELWUDULO\ VLQFH XWLOLW\ LQ

PLFURHFRQRPLFV LV DFWXDOO\ D PHDVXUH RI PDWHULDO ZHOO EHLQJ GHULYHG E\ DQ
LQGLYLGXDO FRQVXPHU IURP WKH FRQVXPSWLRQ RI PDUNHW JRRGV DQG VHUYLFHV ,W LV QRW
PHDQW WR GHVFULEH WKH ZHOO EHLQJ JDLQHG IURP VRFLDO UHODWLRQV OHLVXUH WLPH
DFWLYLWLHV HWF 7KH XWLOLWLHV GHVFULEHG E\ (DVWZRRG DUH D SDUW RI WKH ZLGHU
FRQFHSW RI ZHOO EHLQJ XVHG IRU H[DPSOH LQ VRFLDO SROLWLFV 'HILQLQJ ZHOIDUH
DFFRUGLQJ WR LWV PDWHULDO DVSHFW LV UHJDUGHG LQ VRFLDO SROLWLFV DV ZHOO DV
DPRQJ RWKHU GLVFLSOLQHV DV EHLQJ WRR OLPLWHG DQG IDFHV VWURQJ FULWLFLVP
%DVHG RQ WKH WUDGLWLRQDO FRQVXPHU HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ WKH RSWLPL]DWLRQ
SUREOHP RI D FRQVXPHU GHSHQGV RQ KLV SUHIHUHQFHV SULFHV RI FRPPRGLWLHV
DQG KLV PRQHWDU\ LQFRPH 'HFLVLRQV RI WKH FRQVXPHU VXEMHFW WR H[LVWHQW
FRQVWUDLQWV FDQ EH H[SUHVVHG DV D GHPDQG IXQFWLRQ LQ ZKLFK D FRQVXPHU V
GHPDQG LV LQIOXHQFHG E\ SULFHV DQG WKH OHYHO RI ZHDOWK $V WKH PRGHO FDQ
SUHGLFW WKH HIIHFWV RI FKDQJH LQ WKH H[RJHQRXV YDULDEOHV SULFHV DQG
LQFRPH RQ WKH HTXLOLEULXP YDOXHV RI WKH HQGRJHQRXV YDULDEOHV FRQVXPHU
V GHPDQG IRU JRRGV LW FDQ EH XVHG WR H[DPLQH KRZ DQ RSWLPDO EXQGOH LV
DOWHUHG E\ FKDQJHV LQ WKH YDULDEOHV

,, %(&.(5 6 1(: +286(+2/' (&2120,& 7+(25<

2YHUYLHZ
7KH WUDGLWLRQDO FRQVXPHU WKHRU\ ZLWK DOO LWV ZHDNQHVVHV LV REYLRXVO\
DQ LQFRPSOHWH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI FRQVXPHU EHKDYLRXU DQG SDUWLFXODUO\
RI WKH EHKDYLRXU RI D KRXVHKROG 7KH VR FDOOHG DOWHUQDWLYH PRGHOV ZKLFK
VWLOO UHSUHVHQW QHRFODVVLFDO PRGHOV RI FRQVXPHU EHKDYLRXU KDYH
LQFRUSRUDWHG VRPH RI WKH HOHPHQWV PLVVLQJ IURP WKH WUDGLWLRQDO WKHRU\

7KH PRVW IUHTXHQWO\ TXRWHG DQG DQDO\VHG DOWHUQDWLYH YLHZV RQ WKH

FRQVXPHU GHPDQG WKHRU\ ZHUH GHYHORSHG LQGHSHQGHQWO\ E\ *DU\ %HFNHU
DQG .HYLQ /DQFDVWHU +DZU\O\VK\Q SRUWUD\V WKHVH WZR PRGHOV DV WKH
%HFNHU /DQFDVWHU 7KHRU\ D FOHDU LOOXVWUDWLRQ RI WKHLU VLPLODULWLHV
7KH WZR VWXGLHV KRZHYHU FRQFHQWUDWH RQ GLIIHUHQW DVSHFWV RI
KRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU +DZU\O\VK\Q %HFNHU HPSKDVL]HV WKH WLPH HOHPHQW
DQG /DQFDVWHU WKH SURGXFWLRQ RI FRPPRGLW\ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV %RWK
FULWLFL]H WKH WUDGLWLRQDO WKHRU\ IRU RYHUVLPSOLI\LQJ WKH IXQFWLRQDO
UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ PDUNHW JRRGV DQG XWLOLW\ DQG VXJJHVW DQ
HODERUDWLRQ RI WKLV UHODWLRQVKLS +DZU\O\VK\Q

*DU\ %HFNHU FRQVLGHUV WKH IDPLO\ WR EH WKH PRVW IXQGDPHQWDO VRFLHWDO

LQVWLWXWLRQ LQ WKH VRFLHW\ DQG KLV WKHRU\²WKH QHZ KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLF
WKHRU\²ZDV RULJLQDOO\ DGRSWHG WR GHVFULEH UHVRXUFH DOORFDWLRQ
GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ DQG XWLOLW\ PD[LPL]DWLRQ SURFHVVHV RI KRXVHKROGV LQ WKH
86$ -DSDQ DQG ,VUDHO /DWHU WKH WKHRU\ ZDV DOVR DSSOLHG WR GHYHORSLQJ
FRXQWULHV DQG SDUWLFXODUO\ WR WKH DQDO\VLV RI DJULFXOWXUDO KRXVHKROGV

,W VKRXOG EH QRWHG KHUH WKDW +DZU\O\VK\Q %HFNHU RU /DQFDVWHU GR QRW

TXHVWLRQ WKH XVH RI WKH WHUP KRXVHKROG LQ FRQQHFWLRQ ZLWK FRQVXPHU WKHRU\
%HFNHU V DSSURDFK EULQJV QRWHZRUWK\ QHZ LQVLJKWV WR WKH WUDGLWLRQDO
FRQVXPHU WKHRU\ IRU H[DPSOH KH FRQVLGHUV WKH KRXVHKROG DV ERWK D
FRQVXPSWLRQ DQG D SURGXFWLRQ XQLW +RZHYHU PDQ\ RI %HFNHU V LGHDV RQ
KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLF EHKDYLRXU KDYH EHHQ SUHVHQWHG HDUOLHU DQG WKXV
FDQ QRW EH UHJDUGHG DV WKRURXJKO\ QHZ 1HYHUWKHOHVV KLV SUHVHQWDWLRQ
ZDV IRUPDOL]HG WR D JUHDWHU H[WHQW WKDQ DQ\ RI WKH HDUOLHU RQHV

7KH HFRQRPLF DSSURDFK

%HFNHU XVHV DQ HFRQRPLF DSSURDFK WR DQDO\VH LVVXHV WKDW
H[WHQG EH\RQG WKH VFRSH QRUPDOO\ FRQVLGHUHG E\ HFRQRPLVWV
+H H[SODLQV WKDW KXPDQ EHKDYLRXU LV GULYHQ E\ D PXFK ULFKHU
VHW RI YDOXHV DQG SUHIHUHQFHV WKDQ PHUH VHOI LQWHUHVW WKLV
DUJXPHQW LV KRZHYHU GLIILFXOW WR VHH LQ WKH WKHRU\ LWVHOI

%HFNHU V DSSURDFK LV EDVHG RQ WKUHH UHODWHG DVVXPSWLRQV PD[LPL]LQJ

EHKDYLRXU PDUNHW HTXLOLEULXP DQG VWDEOH SUHIHUHQFHV )XUWKHUPRUH
KH WDONV DERXW WKH UDWLRQDO FKRLFH DSSURDFK ZKLFK XVHV D IUDPHZRUN
WR FRPELQH PD[LPL]LQJ EHKDYLRXU ZLWK WKH DQDO\VLV RI PDUULDJH DQG
GLYRUFH PDUNHWV GLYLVLRQ RI ODERXU LQYHVWPHQW LQ FKLOGUHQ HWF 7R
H[SODLQ IHUWLOLW\ GHFLVLRQV %HFNHU UHIHUV WR WKH KLJK YDOXH RI WLPH
ZKLFK LQFUHDVHV WKH FRVW RI FKLOGUHQ WKXV GLPLQLVKLQJ WKH GHPDQG IRU
ODUJH IDPLOLHV DQG UHGXFLQJ IHUWLOLW\ 7KHUH LV QR GLVWLQFWLRQ
EHWZHHQ PDMRU DQG PLQRU GHFLVLRQV RU EHWZHHQ GLIIHUHQW LQFRPH
OHYHOV HGXFDWLRQ RU IDPLO\ EDFNJURXQG 'HVSLWH WKHVH OLPLWDWLRQV
%HFNHU DUJXHV WKDW WKH UDWLRQDO FKRLFH DSSURDFK LV D
FRPSUHKHQVLYH PHWKRG DSSOLFDEOH WR DOO KXPDQ EHKDYLRXU

+RZHYHU WKH DSSURDFK GLPLQLVKHV WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI KXPDQ EHKDYLRXU

GUDPDWLFDOO\ )RU H[DPSOH WKHUH VKRXOG EH D GLVWLQFWLRQ EHWZHHQ PDMRU DQG
PLQRU GHFLVLRQV EHFDXVH GLIIHUHQW YDOXHV DQG DVSLUDWLRQV LQIOXHQFH
GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI GHFLVLRQV DQG KDYH D YDU\LQJ LPSDFW RQ KXPDQ OLIH %HFDXVH RI
LWV LQDELOLW\ WR GLIIHUHQWLDWH EHWZHHQ LQFRPH OHYHOV DQG RWKHU
EDFNJURXQG YDULDEOHV %HFNHU V DQDO\VLV LV XQDEOH WR H[SODLQ GLIIHUHQFHV LQ
ZHDOWK RU LQ FXOWXUH HWF RU WKH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI WKHVH GLIIHUHQFHV

%HFNHU FODLPV WKDW PD[LPL]LQJ EHKDYLRXU DQG VWDEOH SUHIHUHQFHV DUH QRW VLPSO\
SULPLWLYH DVVXPSWLRQV EXW FDQ EH GHULYHG IURP DUJXPHQWV DERXW QDWXUDO
VHOHFWLRQV RI VXLWDEOH EHKDYLRXU DV KXPDQV HYROYH RYHU WLPH ,QGHHG WKH
HFRQRPLF DSSURDFK DQG WKH PRGHUQ ELRORJLFDO WKHRU\ RI QDWXUDO VHOHFWLRQ DUH
FORVHO\ UHODWHG DQG DUH SHUKDSV GLIIHUHQW DVSHFWV RI WKH VDPH PRUH EDVLF WKHRU\
7KH HFRQRPLF DSSURDFK GRHV QRW DVVXPH WKDW GHFLVLRQ XQLWV DUH
QHFHVVDULO\ FRQVFLRXV RI WKHLU HIIRUWV WR PD[LPL]H RU FDQ H[SUHVV UHDVRQV IRU
WKH V\VWHPDWLF SDWWHUQV RI WKHLU EHKDYLRXU %HFNHU 7KLV YLHZ LV FRQVLVWHQW
IRU H[DPSOH ZLWK HPSKDVLV RQ WKH VXEFRQVFLRXV LQ PRGHUQ SV\FKRORJ\
%HFNHULDQ KRXVHKROG
&KLDSSRUL QRWHV WKDW LQ D %HFNHULDQ KRXVHKROG WKHUH DUH RQO\
WZR PHPEHUV HDFK RI ZKRP LV FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ KLV RZQ SUHIHUHQFHV
%HFNHU UHFRJQL]HV WKDW FRQIOLFWV H[LVW EHWZHHQ KRXVHKROG
PHPEHUV EXW EHFDXVH RI WKH WRROV KH DSSOLHV WR PDWHULDO
EHKDYLRXU LV LQFDSDEOH RI LQFOXGLQJ WKLV DVSHFW LQ WKH DQDO\VLV )
RU %HFNHU FDULQJ LQFOXGLQJ URWWHQ NLG WKHRUHP DQG DOWUXLVP
VROYHV WKH SUREOHP RI GLVWULEXWLRQ ZLWKLQ D KRXVHKROG

%HFNHU LQWURGXFHV D SDUWLFXODU UXOH IRU EDUJDLQLQJ RU GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ

DFFRUGLQJ WR ZKLFK WKH KRXVHKROG PD[LPL]HV RQO\ RQH LQGLYLGXDO V XWLOLW\
IXQFWLRQ ZKLFK LV DOVR WKH XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQ RI WKH DOWUXLVWLF PHPEHU
0DQVHU DQG %URZQ DQG &KLDSSRUL 7KLV DVVXPSWLRQ KRZHYHU OHDGV WR WZR
PDMRU SUREOHPV )LUVW KRZ DUH LQGLYLGXDO SUHIHUHQFHV DJJUHJDWHG DQG KRZ
LV WKH FROOHFWLYH GHFLVLRQ WR EH FKDUDFWHUL]HG DQG VHFRQG KRZ LV LW
GHFLGHG DV WR ZKR JHWV ZKDW" %HFNHU DYRLGV WKHVH TXHVWLRQV E\ DVVXPLQJ
WKDW WKHUH LV RQO\ RQH DJJUHJDWH FRQVXPSWLRQ JRRG SURGXFHG E\ WKH
KRXVHKROG DQG FRQVXPHG E\ HDFK PHPEHU &KLDSSRUL

,QWURGXFWLRQ RI WLPH DV D VFDUFH UHVRXUFH

$UJXDEO\ WKH PRVW LPSRUWDQW FRQWULEXWLRQ RI %HFNHU V WKHRU\ LV WKDW KH
LQWURGXFHV WKH WLPH RI D FRQVXPHU DV D VFDUFH UHVRXUFH LQ WKH GHFLVLRQ
PDNLQJ SURFHVV $YDLODEOH JRRGV DQG VHUYLFHV PD\ LQFUHDVH DYDLODEOH
WLPH GRHV QRW &RQVHTXHQWO\ GHPDQGV UHPDLQ XQVDWLVILHG DQG DV JRRGV
EHFRPH PRUH DEXQGDQW WLPH EHFRPHV PRUH YDOXDEOH %HFNHU
%HFNHU GLYLGHV WLPH LQ WZR FDWHJRULHV ODERXU WLPH DQG FRQVXPSWLRQ
WLPH ZKLFK LPSOLHV WKDW KH VHHV WKH FRQVXPHU DV HLWKHU D ZRUNHU
RXWVLGH WKH KRXVHKROG RU DV D FRQVXPHU ZLWKLQ WKH KRXVHKROG

$V %HFNHU V PRGHO GRHV QRW GLIIHUHQWLDWH EHWZHHQ WKH YDULRXV XVHV RI

WLPH ZLWKLQ D KRXVHKROG LQGLYLGXDO KRXVHKROG WDVNV DUH QRW UHFRJQL]HG
1RW XQGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH XWLOL]DWLRQ RI WLPH ZLWKLQ D KRXVHKROG FDXVHV
GLIILFXOWLHV LQ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ WKH KRXVHKROG GLYLVLRQ RI ODERXU DQG LWV
FRQVHTXHQFHV 6LPLODUO\ KRXVHKROG ZRUN UHPDLQV XQGHUYDOXHG 7KLV
LQGLFDWHV WKDW %HFNHU V PRGHO LV EHVW DSSOLHG WR WKH VWXG\ RI PDUNHW
ODERXU DQG PDUNHW JRRGV VHH IRU H[DPSOH 5XXVNDQHQ

(DUOLHU LW ZDV DVVXPHG WKDW WKH RQO\ UHTXLUHPHQW RI WKH FRQVXPHU WR EH

DEOH WR SXUFKDVH PDUNHW JRRGV LV PRQH\ LQFRPH GHULYHG IURP PDUNHW ZRUN
7KH KRXVHKROG SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ
%HFNHU V WKHRU\ RI WKH KRXVHKROG SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ FOHDUO\ H[SORLWV
DVSHFWV RI WKH WKHRU\ RI D ILUP FRPSDUDWLYH DGYDQWDJH VSHFLDOL]DWLRQ
KXPDQ FDSLWDO HWF $W WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI V DFFRUGLQJ WR %HFNHU
HFRQRPLVWV VWDUWHG WR YLHZ WKH KRXVHKROG DV D VPDOO IDFWRU\ $V D

SURGXFWLRQ XQLW KRXVHKROGV FRPELQH FDSLWDO JRRGV UDZ PDWHULDOV DQG

ODERXU WR FOHDQ IHHG SURFUHDWH DQG RWKHUZLVH SURGXFH XVHIXO FRPPRGLWLHV

,Q WKH KRXVHKROG SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ WLPH SOXV PDUNHW JRRGV DQG

VHUYLFHV FRPELQH WR SURGXFH WKH VR FDOOHG EDVLF FRPPRGLWLHV RU
QRQPDUNHW JRRGV VHH IRU H[DPSOH %HUJVWU|P %DVLF FRPPRGLWLHV DFFRUGLQJ
WR %HFNHU DUH IRU H[DPSOH FKLOGUHQ KHDOWK SOHDVXUH VOHHSLQJ RU VHHLQJ D
SOD\ $ KRXVHKROG FKRRVHV WKH EHVW FRPELQDWLRQ RI WKHVH FRPPRGLWLHV L H
D FRPELQDWLRQ ZKLFK ZLOO PD[LPL]H WKH KRXVHKROG XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQ

7KH UROH RI WLPH LQ WKH KRXVHKROG SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ

&RQVWUDLQWV RQ KRXVHKROG SURGXFWLRQ DUH LPSRVHG E\ WKH OLPLWHG WLPH
DYDLODEOH DQG SDUWO\ E\ DYDLODEOH LQFRPH ,QFRPH LV VSHQW RQ FRPPRGLWLHV
HLWKHU GLUHFWO\ DV LQ SXUFKDVLQJ JRRGV RU LQGLUHFWO\ DV LQ
IRUHJRLQJ LQFRPH E\ VSHQGLQJ WLPH DW KRPH UDWKHU WKDQ DW ZRUN
+RZ PXFK LQFRPH LV HDUQHG RU UHOLQTXLVKHG GHSHQGV RQ WKH
FRQVXPSWLRQ YDULDEOH FKRVHQ WKH OHVV OHLVXUH WKH JUHDWHU
PRQH\ LQFRPH DQG WKH VPDOOHU WKH LQFRPH DPRXQW UHOLQTXLVKHG

7LPH FDQ EH FRQYHUWHG LQWR PDUNHW JRRGV E\ VSHQGLQJ PRUH WLPH DW ZRUN WKDQ
DW FRQVXPSWLRQ QRQ ZRUN WLPH 7LPH VSHQW DW ZRUN LV UHGXFHG LI UHDO ZDJH
UDWHV GHFUHDVH DQG LV FRUUHVSRQGLQJO\ LQFUHDVHG DV UHDO ZDJH UDWHV
LQFUHDVH PDNLQJ WKH UHODWLYH SULFH RI QRQ ZRUN WLPH PRUH H[SHQVLYH
$ ULVH LQ HDUQLQJV LQFUHDVHV WKH RSSRUWXQLW\ FRVW RI WLPH XVHG LQ
FRQVXPSWLRQ DQG WKH UHODWLYH SULFHV RI FRPPRGLWLHV FKDQJH VR WKDW
SULFHV RI PRUH WLPH LQWHQVLYH FRPPRGLWLHV ULVH PRUH WKDQ WKRVH RI
OHVV WLPH LQFHQWLYH JRRGV %HFNHU WKXV UHGXFLQJ WKH FRQVXPSWLRQ RI
WKRVH FRPPRGLWLHV WKDW KDYH EHFRPH FRVWOLHU LQ IDYRXU RI WKRVH RQ
ZKLFK SULFHV KDYH QRW ULVHQ $FFRUGLQJ WR %HFNHU FDSLWDO DQG
WHFKQRORJ\ JURZWK KDV LPSURYHG WKH SURGXFWLYLW\ RI FRQVXPSWLRQ
WLPH IRU H[DPSOH WKURXJK VXSHUPDUNHWV DQG WHOHSKRQHV

$WNLQVRQ DQG 6WHUQ UHI 5XXVNDQHQ UHDOL]H WKDW %HFNHU FDQ

FRPELQH WKH WLPH DQG JRRG FRQVWUDLQWV RQO\ E\ DVVXPLQJ WKDW
ZRUN GRHV QRW SURYLGH GLUHFW XWLOLW\ WR WKH FRQVXPHU
,Q WKH WUDGLWLRQDO FRQVXPHU PRGHO PRQH\ LQFRPH LV JLYHQ EXW DFFRUGLQJ WR
%HUNHU PRQH\ LQFRPH LV GHWHUPLQHG E\ WKH WLPH GHYRWHG WR PDUNHW ZRUN
%HFNHU PHDVXUHV WKH YDOXH RI QRQ ZRUN WLPH ZKLFK LQFOXGHV DOVR
KRXVHKROG ZRUN E\ XVLQJ WKH WHUP IRUHJRQH LQFRPH RU ORVW LQFRPH 7KLV
FDQ EH LQWHUSUHWHG WR PHDQ WKDW ZRUN RU HYHQ SURGXFWLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH
KRXVHKROG LV GRQH DW WKH FRVW RI ORVLQJ PDUNHW LQFRPH 7KH FRVW RI WLPH
LV OHVV IRU FRPPRGLWLHV WKDW LQGLUHFWO\ FRQWULEXWH WR HDUQLQJV 7KHVH
FRPPRGLWLHV DUH FDOOHG SURGXFWLYH FRQVXPSWLRQ DQG LQFOXGH VOHHS IRRG
HWF %HFNHU ,W LV GLIILFXOW WR GHILQH VSHFLILFDOO\ ZKLFK SDUW RI QRQ
ZRUN ZRXOG EH GHWHUPLQHG DV SURGXFWLYH FRQVXPSWLRQ (YHQ %HFNHU
RIIHUV QR LQVLJKWV IRU PDNLQJ WKLV GLVWLQFWLRQ SURYLQJ DJDLQ WKH
LQDELOLW\ RI KLV WKHRU\ WR ORRN DW WKH GLIIHUHQW WDVNV ZLWKLQ WKH
KRXVHKROG RU WR UHFRJQL]H LWV YDULRXV ZD\V RI XVLQJ WLPH

%HFNHU GRHV QRW SD\ VSHFLILF DWWHQWLRQ WR OHLVXUH $Q\ XWLOLW\

JDLQHG E\ VSHQGLQJ WLPH DW FDVXDO DFWLYLWLHV ZRXOG RQO\ EH D E\
SURGXFW RI WKH SXUVXLW RI PRQH\ LQFRPH %HFNHU 7KLV LPSOLHV WKDW
DFWLYLWLHV ZLWKLQ WKH KRXVHKROG WKH EDVLF FRPPRGLW\ SURGXFWLRQ
DUH XQGHUWDNHQ RQO\ WR LPSURYH HIILFLHQF\ DQG JDLQ LQFRPH IURP ZRUN LQ
WKH ODERXU PDUNHW +RXVHKROG ZRUN LV DVVLJQHG RQO\ WKH UROH RI
ODERXU UHSURGXFHU DQG WKH SXUFKDVHU RI PDUNHW JRRGV +RXVHKROG
PHPEHUV DUH WDNHQ FDUH RI ZLWKLQ WKH KRXVHKROG VSKHUH LQ RUGHU IRU
WKHVH PHPEHUV WR EH HIILFLHQW VHUYDQWV RI WKH PDUNHW HFRQRP\

$JDLQ KXPDQ DVSHFWV RI WKH EHKDYLRXU RI KRXVHKROG PHPEHUV DUH

IRUJRWWHQ +XPDQ DFWLRQV DUH PRWLYDWHG E\ PRUH WKDQ MXVW PDUNHW
YDOXHV 3HRSOH GR QRW DOZD\V FDOFXODWH WKH PRQHWDU\ YDOXH RI WKHLU
WLPH RU DFWLRQV RWKHU YDOXHV PD\ SUHYDLO DQG FDQ FOHDUO\ EH HYHQ
PRUH LPSRUWDQW WKDQ ZDJH HDUQLQJV DQG WKH PRWLYDWLRQ WR PD[LPL]H

$FFRUGLQJ WR *URQDX UHI 5XXVNDQHQ WKH KRXVHKROG SURGXFWLRQ

IXQFWLRQ GRHV QRW EULQJ QHZ HOHPHQWV WR WKH VFLHQFH RI SROLWLFDO
HFRQRP\ 7KH WKHRU\ RQO\ FRPSOLFDWHV WKH WUDGLWLRQDO DQDO\VLV
2XWFRPHV RI WKH SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ FRXOG EH GHULYHG GLUHFWO\ IURP
WKH FRQVXPHU HFRQRPLF PRGHO 2QH IXUWKHU SUREOHP ZLWK WKH WKHRU\ LV
WKDW EDVLF JRRGV DQG KRPH JRRGV DUH QRW PHDVXUDEOH 6LPLODUO\ WKH
SURGXFWLRQ SURFHVV LV GLIILFXOW WR REVHUYH WKLV FRPSOLFDWHV WKH
DQDO\VLV LQ GHWHUPLQLQJ VKDGRZ SULFHV IRU WKHVH JRRGV 5XXVNDQHQ

%HFNHU FRQVLGHUV OHLVXUH DV RQH RI WKH EDVLF FRPPRGLWLHV UHTXLULQJ WLPH DQG
RWKHU UHVRXUFHV DV LQSXW %XW LQ VRPH RI KLV ZULWLQJV LW VHHPV WKDW %HFNHU
FRQVLGHUV QRQ PDUNHW ZRUN DV OHLVXUH IRU H[DPSOH KH VWDWHV WKH OHVV OHLVXUH
FKRVHQ WKH ODUJHU WKH PRQH\ LQFRPH DQG WKH VPDOOHU WKH DPRXQW IRUHJRQH
&RPSDUDWLYH DGYDQWDJH LQ WKH DOORFDWLRQ RI WLPH
)RU DQ\ DWWHPSW WR H[SODLQ KRZ WLPH LV DOORFDWHG EHWZHHQ KRXVHKROG
PHPEHUV DQG KRZ HTXDO PDUJLQDO UHYHQXH EHWZHHQ ZDJH ZRUN DQG KRPH
JRRGV SURGXFWLRQ LV DFKLHYHG WKH VWDUWLQJ SRLQW PXVW EHJLQ ZLWK
WKH GLIIHUHQW H[SHULHQFHV DQG LQYHVWPHQWV LQ KXPDQ FDSLWDO %HFNHU
7LPH DOORWPHQW RI KRXVHKROG PHPEHUV LV FDUULHG RXW VR WKDW
LQGLYLGXDOV ZKR DUH UHODWLYHO\ HIILFLHQW DW PDUNHW DFWLYLWLHV XVH
OHVV RI WKHLU WLPH DW FRQVXPSWLRQ DFWLYLWLHV WKDQ RWKHU PHPEHUV

%HFNHU SUHVHQWV WKH K\SRWKHVLV WKDW ZKHQ D PHPEHU RI D KRXVHKROG KDV D

ULVH LQ LQFRPH RWKHU PHPEHUV KDYH WR JLYH XS WKHLU FDUHHUV WR GHYRWH
WKHPVHOYHV WR FRQVXPSWLRQ DFWLYLWLHV DQ DVVXPSWLRQ ZKLFK DJDLQ
LQGLFDWHV WKH H[FHVVLYH RYHUYDOXDWLRQ RI PDUNHW ZRUN 7KH PRGHO DOVR
RYHUORRNV WKH SHUVRQDO DPELWLRQV RI GLIIHUHQW KRXVHKROG PHPEHUV 2QH
PLJKW UHFHLYH FRQVLGHUDEOH VDWLVIDFWLRQ IURP D ORZ SDLG MRE DQG PLJKW
QRW ZLOOLQJ WR JLYH LW XS EHFDXVH RI D VDODU\ LQFUHDVH RI DQRWKHU
KRXVHKROG PHPEHU %HFNHU UHOLHV RQ WKH SRZHU RI WKH SDWULDUFK DV WKH
PDLQ GHFLVLRQ PDNHU WR DOORFDWH WKH ODERXU WLPH RI RWKHU KRXVHKROG
PHPEHUV ,Q IDFW %HFNHU ILQGV WKH UHDVRQ IRU ZRPHQ V VXERUGLQDWLRQ
ZLWKLQ WKH DUJXPHQW RI FRPSDUDWLYH DGYDQWDJH EXW HYHQ PRUH VKRFNLQJ KH
KDV QR LGHDV RU VXJJHVWLRQV IRU LPSURYLQJ WKH VLWXDWLRQ

6SHFLDOL]DWLRQ DQG VXEVHTXHQW GLYLVLRQ RI ODERXU ZLWKLQ D KRXVHKROG

KDV WKH VDPH IRUFH DV WKH DUJXPHQW IRU FRPSDUDWLYH DGYDQWDJH LQ
LQWHUQDWLRQDO WUDGH .UXJPDQ FODLPV WKDW QDWLRQV OLNH LQGLYLGXDOV
FDQ EHQHILW IURP WKHLU GLIIHUHQFHV E\ UHDFKLQJ DQ DUUDQJHPHQW LQ ZKLFK
HDFK GRHV WKH WKLQJV LW GRHV UHODWLYHO\ ZHOO 7KH 5LFDUGLDQ PRGHO
LQWURGXFHV WKH K\SRWKHVLV WKDW FRPSDUDWLYH DGYDQWDJH LV VROHO\
WKH UHVXOW RI LQWHUQDWLRQDO GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH SURGXFWLYLW\ RI
ODERXU .UXJPDQ 7KH QRWLRQ RI GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH SURGXFWLYLW\ RI
ODERXU LV DQ LPSRUWDQW IHDWXUH RI %HFNHU V PRGHOV

%HFNHU VWDWHV WKDW PDUULHG FRXSOHV EHQHILW IURP VSHFLDOL]DWLRQ

DQG WKH VXEVHTXHQW VKDUS GLYLVLRQ RI ODERXU %HFNHU %XW KH GRHV
QRW FRQVLGHU ZKDW KDSSHQV WR VSRXVHV ZKR IRU VRPH UHDVRQ VXFK DV
GLYRUFH HQWHU D WRWDOO\ QHZ VLWXDWLRQ RU HQYLURQPHQW DQG DUH
VSHFLDOL]HG LQ FHUWDLQ VNLOOV RQO\ 2OG VNLOOV PD\ QR ORQJHU EH
XVDEOH DQG VXUYLYDO RI WKH LQGLYLGXDO PD\ GHSHQG RQ VNLOOV KH RU
VKH ODFNV 6SHFLDOL]DWLRQ FDQ DOVR EH D GLVDGYDQWDJH

(YLGHQFH VKRZV WKDW VSHFLDOL]DWLRQ ZKHQ WDNHQ WR WKH H[WUHPH FDQ OHDG WR D

ORVV RI VNLOOV LQ HYHQ WKH PRVW EDVLF WDVNV ZLWKLQ D KRXVHKROG 'XULQJ
UHFHVVLRQ ZKHQ WKH PDUNHW VLWXDWLRQ RI D KRXVHKROG GHWHULRUDWHV
KRXVHKROG PHPEHUV KDYH QR VNLOOV IRU DSSUDLVLQJ WKH QHZ VLWXDWLRQ
RU IRU NHHSLQJ WKHLU QRQ PDUNHW HFRQRP\ LQ EDODQFH 7KLV OHDGV WR D
GHWHULRUDWLRQ RI ZHOO EHLQJ ZKLFK FRQWUDGLFWV %HFNHU V FODLP WKDW
VSHFLDOL]DWLRQ LQGXFHV HFRQRPLF JDLQV

(PSLULFDO WHVWV RI WKH XQLWDU\ KRXVHKROG PRGHO

7KH LQFRPH SRROLQJ K\SRWKHVLV RI WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO KDV EHHQ ZLGHO\
WHVWHG ,I D KRXVHKROG ZHUH WR PD[LPL]H D VLQJOH XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQ WKHQ
LQFRPH FRQWUROOHG E\ WKH PDQ KDV WKH VDPH LPSDFW RQ WKH FRPPRGLW\
GHPDQG RI D KRXVHKROG DV LQFRPH FRQWUROOHG E\ WKH ZRPDQ 'XH WR D MRLQW
XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQ IRU H[DPSOH LQ WKH FDVH RI D GHYHORSPHQW DLG SURMHFW LW
LV FRPSOHWHO\ LUUHOHYDQW DV WR ZKLFK KRXVHKROG PHPEHU WKH SURMHFW PD\
EH WDUJHWHG IRU RU ZKLFK PHPEHU UHFHLYHV WKH H[WUD UHVRXUFHV 7KH
RXWFRPH WKH HIIHFW RI WKH WDUJHWHG UHVRXUFHV ZLOO EH WKH VDPH

,I LQFRPH SRROLQJ K\SRWKHVLV ZHUH VXSSRUWHG E\ HPSLULFDO WHVWV LW ZRXOG

SURYLGH D UDWKHU VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG JXLGH WR SROLF\ GHVLJQ +RXVHKROGV FRXOG
EH WDNHQ DV D XQLW\ ZLWKRXW WKH QHHG WR DFFRXQW IRU LQWUDKRXVHKROG
UHODWLRQV RU LQHTXDOLWLHV +RZHYHU LI WKH LQFRPH SRROLQJ K\SRWKHVLV
UHMHFWHG SROLF\ H[SHFWDWLRQV WKDW KDYH EHHQ EDVHG RQ WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO
VKRXOG EH VFUXWLQL]HG )XUWKHUPRUH LI WKH PRGHO ZHUH DEDQGRQHG LW ZRXOG
FUHDWH DQ LQFHQWLYH WR GHYHORS KRXVHKROG WKHRULHV IXUWKHU 7KH
FROOHFWLYH PRGHOV RI KRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU VKRXOG EH WHVWHG WR DVFHUWDLQ LI
WKHVH FDQ DGHTXDWHO\ GHVFULEH KRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU

$FFRUGLQJ WR %URZQLQJ HW DO LW LV WDNHQ IRU JUDQWHG LQ PRVW HPSLULFDO

LPSOHPHQWDWLRQV WKDW WKH FRQVXPHU WKHRU\ FDQ EH DSSOLHG WR WKH
KRXVHKROG OHYHO +RZHYHU DV %URZQLQJ HW DO SRLQW RXW HPSLULFDO VWXGLHV
VKRZ WKDW KRXVHKROGV GR QRW EHKDYH OLNH VLQJOH LQGLYLGXDOV DQG
FRQVHTXHQWO\ PXOWLSHUVRQ KRXVHKROGV FDQQRW EH WUHDWHG DV VLQJOH
GHFLVLRQ PDNHUV ,Q WKHLU DUWLFOH 6WUDXVV DQG 7KRPDV VXPPDUL]H WKH
QXPHURXV VWXGLHV RQ GLIIHUHQW SUHIHUHQFHV RI PHQ DQG ZRPHQ 7KHLU
UHVXOWV VXJJHVW WKDW UHVRXUFHV FRQWUROOHG E\ GLIIHUHQW LQGLYLGXDOV
ZLWKLQ RQH KRXVHKROG KDYH D YDU\LQJ LPSDFW RQ WKH ZHOIDUH RI DOO
KRXVHKROG PHPEHUV :HOIDUH KHUH DOVR LQFOXGHV FKLOGUHQ V KHDOWK

7KH ILUVW HPSLULFDO FDVH ZH ORRN DW LV 6FKXOW] V VWXG\ IURP LQ ZKLFK

KH H[DPLQHV ZKHWKHU WKH QRQ HDUQHG LQFRPH RI D KXVEDQG DQG ZLIH
KDV VLPLODU HIIHFWV RQ WKH ODERXU VXSSO\ RI WKH IDPLO\ %DVHG RQ WKH
6RFLRHFRQRPLF 6XUYH\ RI 7KDLODQG HYLGHQFH VXJJHVWV WKDW FRQWUDU\ WR WKH

XQLWDU\ PRGHO IDPLO\ PHPEHUV DUH PRWLYDWHG E\ VHOI LQWHUHVW LQ IDPLO\

UHVRXUFH DOORFDWLRQ 3DUDOOHO UHVXOWV IURP WKH SRLQW RI YLHZ RI FRQVXPSWLRQ
GHPDQG DUH IRXQG LQ D VWXG\ E\ %RXUJXLJQRQ %URZQLQJ &KLDSSRUL DQG /HFKHQH $W
D JLYHQ OHYHO RI LQFRPH WKH VKDUH RI WKH KXVEDQG V DQG WKH ZLIH V RZQ LQFRPH
VLJQLILFDQWO\ DIIHFWV WKH VWUXFWXUH RI FRQVXPSWLRQ

8WLOL]LQJ LQIRUPDWLRQ FROOHFWHG LQ IRU D %UD]LOLDQ H[SHQGLWXUH VXUYH\

7KRPDV H[DPLQHV ZKHWKHU WKH GDWD DUH FRQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKH %HFNHULDQ
PRGHO RI FRPPRQ SUHIHUHQFHV 7KRPDV WHVWV ZKHWKHU WKH FRPSRVLWLRQ RI
XQHDUQHG LQFRPH IRU H[DPSOH VRFLDO VHFXULW\ SHQVLRQV KDV DQ HIIHFW RQ
FKLOG KHDOWK LQGLFDWRUV %DVHG RQ WKH %HFNHULDQ PRGHO WKH HIIHFW RI
XQHDUQHG LQFRPH VKRXOG EH WKH VDPH DV LW LV QRW GHSHQGHQW RQ ZKR
FRQWUROV WKH LQFRPH +RZHYHU WKH UHVXOWV FRQWUDGLFW WKLV DQG VKRZ
WKDW XQHDUQHG LQFRPH FRQWUROOHG E\ WKH PRWKHU KDV D JUHDWHU HIIHFW RQ
KHU IDPLO\ V KHDOWK WKDQ WKDW FRQWUROOHG E\ WKH IDWKHU ,Q WKH FDVH RI
FKLOG VXUYLYDO SUREDELOLWLHV WKH HIIHFW LV DOPRVW WZHQW\ WLPHV ELJJHU
)XUWKHUPRUH 7KRPDV ILQGV HYLGHQFH RI VLJQLILFDQW JHQGHU SUHIHUHQFH
PRWKHUV GHYRWH PRUH UHVRXUFHV WR GDXJKWHUV DQG IDWKHUV WR VRQV
*HQGHU ELDV FOHDUO\ H[LVWV LQ WKH DOORFDWLRQ RI UHVRXUFHV ZLWKLQ WKH
KRXVHKROG 7KLV LQGLFDWHV WKH LQDFFXUDF\ RI WKH FRPPRQ SUHIHUHQFH PRGHO

'XJJDQ V HYLGHQFH DOVR FRQWUDGLFWV WKH WKHRU\ RI VLPLODULW\ RI LQWHUHVWV

EHWZHHQ WKH JHQGHUV 5HIHUULQJ WR PDQ\ VWXGLHV RQ GLIIHUHQW VSHQGLQJ
SDWWHUQV EHWZHHQ PHQ DQG ZRPHQ ZLWKLQ D KRXVHKROG VKH FODLPV ZLWK
JRRG UHDVRQ WKDW FKLOG DOORZDQFHV DQG RWKHU JRYHUQPHQW VXEVLGLHV IRU
FKLOG UHDULQJ KDYH D GLIIHUHQW HIIHFW RQ WKH IDPLO\ GHSHQGLQJ RQ ZKHWKHU
WKHVH DUH SDLG WR WKH PRWKHU RU WKH IDWKHU

7KH UHVXOWV RI 5RVHQ]ZHLJ V HPSLULFDO VWXG\ LQ ,QGLD VKRZ WKDW D ULVH LQ

WKH YDOXH RI WLPH RI RQH SHUVRQ VLJQLILFDQWO\ DIIHFWV WKH WLPH
DOORFDWLRQ RI RWKHU IDPLO\ PHPEHUV $Q LQFUHDVH LQ WKH ZDJH UDWH RI RQH
KRXVHKROG PHPEHU LQGXFHV WKH IDPLO\ WR UHDOORFDWH UHVRXUFHV ZLWKLQ
DQG DFURVV KRXVHKROG DFWLYLWLHV 2WKHU IDPLO\ PHPEHUV JRRGV DQG WLPH
ZLOO EH VXEVWLWXWHG IRU WKH KLJKHU SULFHG WLPH RI WKH ZDJH HDUQHU

$FFRUGLQJ WR 5RVHQ]ZHLJ SROLF\PDNHUV VKRXOG SD\ SDUWLFXODU DWWHQWLRQ WR

WKH LQWHUGHSHQGHQFH RI KRXVHKROG PHPEHUV EHFDXVH LQWHUYHQWLRQV WKDW DLP
WR HQFRXUDJH FHUWDLQ DFWLYLWLHV RU WR DXJPHQW WKH ZHOIDUH RI SDUWLFXODU
LQGLYLGXDOV ZLOO KDYH FURVV HIIHFWV LQIOXHQFH RWKHU LQGLYLGXDOV DQG PD\
LQGXFH RWKHU DFWLYLWLHV $ SURMHFW WKDW LQFUHDVHV WKH GHPDQG IRU ODERXU
ZLOO DOVR SURPRWH LQWUDKRXVHKROG DOORFDWLRQV 0DQ\

7KH K\SRWKHVLV RI LQFRPH HIIHFWV RI GLIIHUHQW PHPEHUV RI D

KRXVHKROG EHLQJ VLPLODU LV UHMHFWHG LQ PRVW FDVHV
SURMHFWV KDYH HPSOR\PHQW FRQVHTXHQFHV IRU LQVWDQFH DWWHPSWV WR
HQFRXUDJH WKH HPSOR\PHQW RI ZRPHQ LQ DJULFXOWXUH LQ ,QGLD ZKHUH PRVW RI
WKH DYDLODEOH ZRUN LV IRXQG ZRXOG LQFUHDVH WKH WLPH VSHQW E\ FKLOGUHQ
HVSHFLDOO\ JLUOV LQ KRPH DFWLYLWLHV 7KLV GLPLQLVKHV WKH
SDUWLFLSDWLRQ RI JLUOV LQ HDUQLQJ DFWLYLWLHV DQG LQ VFKRRO
OLPLWLQJ WKHLU IXWXUH RSSRUWXQLWLHV WR DWWDLQ PDUNHW ZRUN

7KH FDVHV UHYLHZHG FRQWUDGLFW WR VRPH H[WHQW WKH DVVXPSWLRQV RI WKH

XQLWDU\ PRGHO RI KRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU SDUWLFXODUO\ WKH LQFRPH SRROLQJ
K\SRWKHVLV 7KHUH LV DOVR HYLGHQFH RI JHQGHU GLIIHUHQFHV ZLWKLQ D
KRXVHKROG 7KXV LW FDQ FDXWLRXVO\ EH FODLPHG WKDW JRYHUQPHQW SROLFLHV
VKRXOG QRW EH EDVHG VROHO\ RQ WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO VLQFH SROLF\ UHVXOWV
PD\ QRW FRQIRUP WR H[SHFWDWLRQV EHFDXVH RI WKH PRGHO V IDLOXUH WR
DQDO\VH LQWUDKRXVHKROG UHVRXUFH GLVWULEXWLRQ

,,, +80$1( +80$1 &$3,7$/

([SODLQLQJ WKH FRQFHSW RI KXPDQH KXPDQ FDSLWDO

7KH WUDGLWLRQDO LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI KXPDQ FDSLWDO DV D WRRO LQ WKH
PDUNHWSODFH LJQRUHV WKH KXPDQ FDSLWDO QHHGHG WR SURPRWH VRFLDO OLQNV DQG
LQWHUDFWLRQV DPRQJ SHRSOH ,W LV DUJXHG KHUH WKDW RSSRUWXQLW\ FRVW RI PDUNHW
ZRUN DQG VKDGRZ SULFHV FDQQRW H[SODLQ DOO KXPDQ EHKDYLRXU 1RW VXUSULVLQJO\
WKHUH DUH PRUH YDOXDEOH DVVHWV WKDQ MXVW PRQH\ LQFRPH ,W LV DQ
XQGHUHVWLPDWLRQ RI WKH FRPSOH[ KXPDQ PLQG WR H[SHFW DOO GHFLVLRQV WR EH PDGH RQ
WKH EDVLV RI PDUNHW YDOXH RQO\ RU RQ FDOFXODWLRQV RI FRPSDUDWLYH DGYDQWDJH

7KH LPSRUWDQFH RI EHLQJ ZLWK RWKHU SHRSOH LQFUHDVHV GXULQJ HFRQRPLF

KDUGVKLS ZKHQ JRYHUQPHQWDO VXSSRUW WR KRXVHKROGV GLPLQLVKHV DQG WKH
PRQH\ LQFRPH RI LQGLYLGXDOV DQG KRXVHKROGV LV UHGXFHG )RU H[DPSOH LQ
7DQ]DQLD 0DWWLOD ZRPHQ IRUPHG WKH VR FDOOHG PDUNHWLQJ QHWZRUNV LQ
RUGHU WR VKDUH ERWK PDUNHW ZRUN DQG KRXVHKROG WDVNV DQG WKXV
IDFLOLWDWH WKH LQFRPH HDUQLQJV DQG IXQFWLRQLQJ RI WKHLU KRXVHKROGV

+XPDQ VNLOOV XVHG WR SURPRWH DPLFDEOH VRFLDO UHODWLRQVKLSV DUH ODEHOOHG KHUH

DV KXPDQH KXPDQ FDSLWDO +XPDQH KXPDQ FDSLWDO HQFRXUDJHV DQ LQYHVWPHQW LQ

KXPDQ UHODWLRQV ODVWLQJ UHODWLRQVKLSV ZLWK UHODWLYHV IULHQGV QHLJKERXUV DV

ZHOO DV ZLWK VWUDQJHUV ,W SURPRWHV VKDUHG KXPDQ LQWHUHVWV DQG DVSLUDWLRQV

+XPDQH KXPDQ FDSLWDO LV DFTXLUHG IRU H[DPSOH WKURXJK

WKH SURFHVV RI QHWZRUNLQJ ZLWK RWKHU SHRSOH RU ZLWK RWKHU KRXVHKROGV
+XPDQH DFWLYLWLHV²WKH QRQ PDUNHW DFWLRQV SHRSOH HQJDJH LQ²GLUHFWO\
DIIHFW KXPDQ ZHOO EHLQJ 7KH\ FUHDWH D IHHOLQJ RI EHORQJLQJ ZLWKLQ D
FHUWDLQ VRFLDO JURXS HQKDQFH SHUVRQDO FDSDELOLWLHV VWUHQJWKHQ VRFLDO
UHVSRQVLELOLWLHV DQG JHQHUDOO\ FUHDWH VXUYLYDO VWUDWHJLHV DQG
HQKDQFH OLYHOLKRRGV EH\RQG WKH VSKHUH RI WKH PDUNHW

7KH LQWULQVLFDOO\ QRQ PDUNHW DVSHFWV RI KXPDQH KXPDQ FDSLWDO

)RU QHRFODVVLFDO HFRQRPLVWV QRQ ZRUN WLPH ZKLFK LQFOXGHV KRXVHKROG

ZRUN WKH WLPH QRW VSHQW DW PDUNHW ZRUN UHSUHVHQWV D ORVV RI HDUQLQJV
6XFK WLPH LV HYDOXDWHG DFFRUGLQJ WR D PDUNHW ZDJH UDWH 7KH VNLOOV DQG
NQRZOHGJH SHRSOH DFTXLUH DUH UDWHG E\ PDUNHW SULFHV DQG WKH ZD\ LQ ZKLFK
WKH PDUNHW IXQFWLRQV FDQ DIIHFW WKH IXWXUH DFTXLVLWLRQ RI WKHVH VNLOOV

,Q WKH QHZ FRQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQ RI KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLFV WLPH VSHQW LQ

LQWHUDFWLRQ ZLWK RWKHU SHRSOH LQFUHDVHV KXPDQH KXPDQ FDSLWDO DQG
FRQVHTXHQWO\ FDQQRW EH UHJDUGHG DV ORVW WLPH HYHQ WKRXJKW LW PD\ HQWDLO D
ORVV RI HDUQLQJV 0DUNHW SULFH FDQQRW EH XVHG WR GLUHFWO\ UHSUHVHQW WKH
YDOXH RI KXPDQH KXPDQ FDSLWDO EHFDXVH LW KDV DQ LQWULQVLF KXPDQ GLPHQVLRQ
0DUNHW ZDJH KDV PDQ\ NQRZQ OLPLWDWLRQV LQ HYDOXDWLQJ KRXVHKROG ZRUN DQG LW
FDQ UHIOHFW RQO\ D SDUW RI WKH KXPDQH KXPDQ FDSLWDO +XPDQH KXPDQ FDSLWDO
GRHV QRW GLUHFWO\ DIIHFW WKH PDUNHW ZDJH UDWH DV LV WKH FDVH ZLWK WKH
WUDGLWLRQDO FRQFHSW RI KXPDQ FDSLWDO

,QVWHDG DFTXLVLWLRQ RI KXPDQH KXPDQ FDSLWDO LQFUHDVHV WKH SURGXFWLYLW\ RI

LQGLYLGXDOV ZLWK KRXVHKROG ZRUN DQG ZLWK RWKHU QRQ PDUNHW ZRUN ZKLFK LQ
WXUQ FRQVLGHUDEO\ LQFUHDVHV WKH YDOXH RI ZRUN ZLWKLQ WKH KRXVHKROG %\
LQFUHDVLQJ WKH SURGXFWLYLW\ DQG WKH HIILFLHQF\ RI KRXVHKROG
RSHUDWLRQV KXPDQH KXPDQ FDSLWDO LV GHILQLWHO\ DQ
LPSRUWDQW IDFWRU RI HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW LQ DOO HFRQRPLHV

+XPDQH KXPDQ FDSLWDO KDV D EHDULQJ RQ WKH VHOI VXIILFLHQF\ RI KRXVHKROGV LQ

WKH QRQ PDUNHW VSKHUH 6SHFLDO VNLOOV DQG NQRZOHGJH DUH UHTXLUHG WR
SHUIRUP HVVHQWLDO KXPDQ DFWLRQV VXFK DV FDULQJ IRU WKH HOGHUO\ DQG IRU
LQIDQWV 7KHVH DFWV DUH HFRQRPLF EHFDXVH WKH\ UHTXLUH DQ DOORFDWLRQ RI D
VFDUFH UHVRXUFH QDPHO\ WLPH 7KH HVVHQWLDO SRLQW LV WKDW WKH VNLOOV DQG
NQRZOHGJH KXPDQH KXPDQ FDSLWDO QHHGHG WR SHUIRUP WKHVH WDVNV FDQQRW

,Q QHRFODVVLFDO HFRQRPLFV WKH DFTXLVLWLRQ RI RWKHU IRUPV RI KXPDQ

FDSLWDO E\ HQJDJLQJ LQ PDUNHW RULHQWHG DFWLYLWLHV²D SURFHVV FRPPRQO\
NQRZQ DV OHDUQLQJ E\ GRLQJ ²PLJKW EH WKH DSSURSULDWH DQDORJ\ KHUH
EH REWDLQHG WKURXJK PDUNHW PHFKDQLVPV )XUWKHU WKH KXPDQ
RXWFRPHV RI WKHVH VNLOOV H J ORYH NLQGQHVV V\PSDWK\ DQG VR RQ
KDYH QR PDUNHW YDOXH <HW WKH\ KDYH D IXQGDPHQWDO EHDULQJ RQ
SHRSOH V ZHOO EHLQJ DQG RQ WKH IXOILOPHQW RI KXPDQ QHHGV

7KH DPRXQW RI KXPDQH KXPDQ FDSLWDO LV QRW OLQNHG WR WKH ZHDOWK RI DQ

LQGLYLGXDO 7UDGLWLRQDO KXPDQ FDSLWDO LV LQIOXHQFHG E\ ZHDOWK EHFDXVH
ZHDOWK\ SDUHQWV IRU LQVWDQFH FDQ SURYLGH D EHWWHU HGXFDWLRQ IRU WKHLU
FKLOGUHQ WKDQ WKH SRRU ZKR PD\ EH XQDEOH WR JHW D ORDQ IRU WKH
DFTXLVLWLRQ RI WUDGLWLRQDO KXPDQ FDSLWDO OLNH HGXFDWLRQ

7KHUH LV D GHILQLWH JHQGHU GLIIHUHQFH LQ WKH DFTXLVLWLRQ DQG XVH RI

KXPDQH KXPDQ FDSLWDO :RPHQ WHQG WR QHHG PRUH KXPDQH KXPDQ FDSLWDO
DQG WR XWLOL]H LW EHWWHU VLQFH WKH\ DUH WKH RQHV SUHGRPLQDQWO\
HQJDJHG LQ KRXVHKROG SURGXFWLRQ DQG LQ RWKHU IRUPV RI QRQ PDUNHW
SURGXFWLRQ SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ WKH GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV

7KH FRQFHSW RI KXPDQH KXPDQ FDSLWDO LPSOLHV WKDW WKH ZHOO EHLQJ RI DQ
LQGLYLGXDO DQG RI D KRXVHKROG LV QRW SRVVLEOH ZLWKRXW LQWHUDFWLRQ ZLWK
RWKHUV HVSHFLDOO\ ZLWK WKRVH ZLWKLQ WKH VDPH FRPPXQLW\ 3URFXUHPHQW RI
KXPDQH KXPDQ FDSLWDO LV EHVW VHHQ DV FROOHFWLYH EHKDYLRXU EHFDXVH LW
DIIHFWV WKH LQGLYLGXDO KHU KRXVHKROG DQG WKH ZLGHU VRFLHW\ +RZHYHU LW LV
QRW GHSHQGHQW RQ PDUNHW EDVHG FDOFXODWLRQV +XPDQ UHODWLRQV DUH D
SUHUHTXLVLWH IRU D SURVSHURXV DQG D ZHOO IXQFWLRQLQJ VRFLHW\

,9 7+( &2//(&7,9( 02'(/6 2) 7+( +286(+2/'

7KH YDULRXV DSSURDFKHV

&ROOHFWLYH PRGHOV RI KRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU DOVR FDOOHG SOXUDOLVWLF
GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ PRGHOV ZLWKLQ WKH IDPLO\ %HUJVWU|P HQFRPSDVV FHUWDLQ
IDFWRUV WKDW FDQQRW EH REVHUYHG ZLWK WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO RI KRXVHKROG
EHKDYLRXU )RU H[DPSOH KRZ GRHV DQ LQFUHDVH LQ WKH LQFRPH RI RQH
KRXVHKROG PHPEHU DIIHFW WKH ZHOO EHLQJ RU IRRG FRQVXPSWLRQ RI RWKHU
PHPEHUV" 0RUHRYHU DFFRUGLQJ WR 3KLSSV DQG %XUWRQ WKH FROOHFWLYH
PRGHOV FDQ LOOXVWUDWH WKH LQIOXHQFH RI H[WHUQDO IDFWRUV OLNH VRFLDO
DQG LQVWLWXWLRQDO YDULDEOHV RQ KRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU

&ROOHFWLYH PRGHOV FRQFHQWUDWH RQ WKH LQGLYLGXDOLW\ RI KRXVHKROG PHPEHUV

UDWKHU WKDQ RQ MRLQW GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ RU RQO\ RQ RQH XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQ 7KH

PRGHOV SRVH WKH TXHVWLRQ KRZ GR LQGLYLGXDO SUHIHUHQFHV OHDG WR D

FROOHFWLYH FKRLFH $OGHUPDQ HW DO $ FRPPRQ IUDPHZRUN IRU FROOHFWLYH

PRGHOV KRZHYHU VWLOO QHHGV WR EH GHYHORSHG &KLDSSRUL

&ROOHFWLYH PRGHOV DUH VWLOO H[SOLFLWO\ QHRFODVVLFDO PRGHOV WKDW GHULYH

PDQ\ RI WKH EDVLF DVVXPSWLRQV IURP %HFNHU V WKHRU\ RI KRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU ,Q

IDFW FROOHFWLYH PRGHOV RQO\ LPSO\ GLIIHUHQW GHFLVLRQ

PDNLQJ UXOHV WKDQ WKRVH DSSDUHQW LQ WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO

(IILFLHQW FRRSHUDWLYH PRGHOV

(IILFLHQW FRRSHUDWLYH PRGHOV YLHZ KRXVHKROG GHFLVLRQV DV HIILFLHQW LQ
WKH 3DUHWR VHQVH WKDW D KRXVHKROG PHPEHU FDQQRW JDLQ ZLWKRXW FRVW RU
GLVDGYDQWDJH WR DQRWKHU PHPEHU 7KHUH DUH QR WKHRULHV RQ WKH
LQWUDKRXVHKROG UHVRXUFH GLVWULEXWLRQ LPSO\LQJ WKDW WKH HIILFLHQW
FRRSHUDWLYH PRGHOV KDYH WKH VDPH EDVLF SUREOHPV DV VHHQ LQ WKH XQLWDU\
PRGHO WKH GLYLVLRQ RI UHVRXUFHV EHWZHHQ KRXVHKROG PHPEHUV FDQQRW EH
SUHVHQWHG H[SOLFLWO\ ZLWK WKH WRROV RI WKHVH PRGHOV

&KLDSSRUL WKH ILUVW WR IRUPXODWH WKH HIILFLHQF\ PRGHO &KLDSSRUL DUJXHV

WKDW WKH LQWHUQDO SURFHVVHV DQG UXOHV RI D SDUWLFXODU KRXVHKROG FDQ
EH GHILQHG E\ REVHUYLQJ LWV H[WHUQDO EHKDYLRXU ODERXU VXSSO\ DQG
DJJUHJDWH FRQVXPSWLRQ (YHQ ZKHQ &KLDSSRUL XVHV WKLV DSSURDFK WR GHILQH
QRQ REVHUYDEOH LQWUDKRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU KH KLPVHOI EHOLHYHV WKDW KH
LV LOOXVWUDWLQJ WKH EODFN ER[ LQWUDKRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU 5XOHV
UHJDUGLQJ GLVWULEXWLRQ ZLWKLQ D KRXVHKROG DUH EDVHG RQ GDWD QRW
DVVXPSWLRQV &KLDSSRUL E UHI $OGHUPDQ

7KH HIILFLHQW FRRSHUDWLYH PRGHOV DUH IRXQGHG RQ WKH DVVXPSWLRQ

RI WZR LQGLYLGXDOV HDFK KDYLQJ KLV KHU RZQ SUHIHUHQFHV DQG
LQGLYLGXDO XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQV 7KH DJHQWV RI D KRXVHKROG DUH
XVXDOO\ UHJDUGHG DV HJRLVWLF WKHLU XWLOLW\ GHSHQGV RQO\ RQ WKHLU
RZQ FRQVXPSWLRQ DQG ODERXU VXSSO\ +RZHYHU WKH\ DUH H[SHFWHG WR
FDUH DERXW RQH DQRWKHU PHDQLQJ WKDW D ZLIH LV QRW FRQFHUQHG
DERXW ZKDW KHU KXVEDQG FRQVXPHV RQO\ WKDW KLV FRQVXPSWLRQ
PDNHV KLP KDSS\ DQG YLVD YHUVD VHH IRU H[DPSOH 3KLSSV DQG %XUWRQ

7KH VKDULQJ UXOH

(IILFLHQF\ LQ KRXVHKROG RSHUDWLRQV LV DFKLHYHG E\ GLYLGLQJ DYDLODEOH LQFRPH
DPRQJ KRXVHKROG PHPEHUV RQ WKH EDVLV RI D FHUWDLQ VKDULQJ UXOH 2QFH WKH
LQFRPH LV DOORFDWHG HDFK PHPEHU LV FRQVWUDLQHG E\ DQ LQGLYLGXDO EXGJHW
HDFK FKRRVHV KLV KHU RZQ FRQVXPSWLRQ DQG ODERXU VXSSO\ WKURXJK D OLPLWHG
XWLOLW\ PD[LPL]DWLRQ SURFHVV VHH IRU H[DPSOH &KLDSSRUL
$OGHUPDQ HW DO DUJXH WKDW HIILFLHQW FRRSHUDWLYH PRGHOV DUH DW DQ
DGYDQWDJH LQ WKDW WKH\ FDQ LOOXVWUDWH KRZ LQGLYLGXDO LQFRPH DPRQJ
RWKHU WKLQJV DIIHFWV WKH KRXVHKROG FRQVXPSWLRQ RI GLIIHUHQW JRRGV

:LWK UHJDUG WR SXEOLF JRRGV $OGHUPDQ HW DO EHOLHYH WKDW WZR

LQGLYLGXDOV LQ D KRXVHKROG ILUVW GHFLGH RQ WKH SURYLVLRQ RI
KRXVHKROG SXEOLF JRRGV DIWHU ZKLFK WKH UHPDLQLQJ LQFRPH LV
DOORFDWHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI D VKDULQJ UXOH ,Q %RXUJXLJQRQ V PRGHO
%RXUJXLJQRQ HW DO SXEOLF JRRGV RI D KRXVHKROG DUH RYHUORRNHG

6LQFH WKH VKDULQJ UXOH LGHQWLILHV KRZ UHVRXUFHV DUH GLVWULEXWHG ZLWKLQ D

KRXVHKROG LW FRXOG EH XWLOL]HG LQ SROLF\ IRUPXODWLRQ 3URYLGLQJ NQRZOHGJH RQ

LQWUDKRXVHKROG GLVWULEXWLRQ LW FRXOG IDFLOLWDWH WKH IRUPXODWLRQ RI WD[DWLRQ

SROLF\ GLUHFW WUDQVIHUV HWF %XW GHILQLWLRQ RI WKH VKDULQJ UXOH LV QRW JLYHQ

$FFRUGLQJ WR RQH WKHRU\ WKH UXOH LV DQ LQFUHDVLQJ IXQFWLRQ RI WKH

PDUNHW LQFRPH HDUQHG E\ HDFK VSRXVH 2WKHUV VHH IRU H[DPSOH 3KLSSV DQG
%XUWRQ EHOLHYH WKDW WKHVH VKDUHV DUH DOVR LQIOXHQFHG E\ VRFLDO QRUPV
DQG LQVWLWXWLRQV D VWDWHPHQW HDV\ WR DJUHH ZLWK 5XXVNDQHQ
DWWHPSWHG WR H[DPLQH ZKHWKHU D VKDULQJ UXOH DFWXDOO\ H[LVWV ZKLFK
FRXOG LOOXVWUDWH KRZ FKDQJHV LQ H[RJHQRXV YDULDEOHV HIIHFW WKH
VKDUHV RI HDFK KRXVHKROG PHPEHU 7KH WHVW LV XQLTXH DV WKH H[LVWHQFH
RI D VKDULQJ UXOH KDV QRW EHHQ H[DPLQHG EHIRUH 8VLQJ GDWD IURP WKH )
LQQLVK +RXVHKROG ([SHQGLWXUH 6XUYH\ 5XXVNDQHQ FRQVWUXFWHG IRXU
GDWDVHWV $V D UHVXOW 5XXVNDQHQ FRQFOXGHV WKDW LQ WKUHH RXW RI IRXU
FDVHV WKH WKHRU\ RI WKH H[LVWHQFH RI D XQLTXH VKDULQJ UXOH LV
GLVSXWHG VLJQLILFDQWO\ 7KLV FOHDUO\ TXHVWLRQV WKH H[LVWHQFH RI D
VKDULQJ UXOH ZLWKLQ WKH KRXVHKROG DOORFDWLRQ SURFHVV

)RUWLQ DQG /DFURL[ FODLP WKDW IRU DQDO\VLQJ D VRFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQ OLNH
WKH IDPLO\ WKH FRRSHUDWLYH IUDPHZRUN DSSHDUV WR EH PRUH QDWXUDO DQG
SURPLVLQJ PRGHO WKDQ WKH QRQ FRRSHUDWLYH DSSURDFK EDVHG RQ 1DVK
HTXLOLEULXP ZKLFK OHDGV WR RXWFRPHV WKDW DUH JHQHUDOO\ 3DUHWR
GRPLQDWHG 'UDZLQJ RQ WKH &DQDGLDQ &HQVXV GDWD RQ WZR LQFRPH
KRXVHKROGV )RUWLQ DQG /DFURL[ WHVW WKH XQLWDU\ DQG WKH FROOHFWLYH
KRXVHKROG ODERXU VXSSO\ PRGHOV ZLWKLQ D VWUXFWXUDO IUDPHZRUN 7KHLU
UHVXOWV UHMHFW WKH LQFRPH SRROLQJ K\SRWKHVLV IRU DOO VXE JURXSV ZLWK
WKH H[FHSWLRQ RI FRXSOHV DJHG EHWZHHQ DQG ZLWK QR SUH VFKRRO FKLOGUHQ
7KHUH LV HYLGHQFH WR IDYRXU WKH FROOHFWLYH ODERXU VXSSO\ PRGHO IRU DOO
DJH JURXSV ZLWK QR SUH VFKRRO FKLOGUHQ EXW QRW IRU WKH \RXQJ FRXSOHV VXE
JURXS ZLWK SUH VFKRRO FKLOGUHQ 5HVXOWV LQGLFDWH WKDW WKH FRRSHUDWLYH
PRGHO FDQQRW EH UHMHFWHG LQ WKH FDVH RI KRXVHKROGV WKDW KDYH PRUH
WKDQ RQH PHPEHU ZKLFK LV DQ LPSRUWDQW ILQGLQJ
%DUJDLQLQJ PRGHOV
%DUJDLQLQJ PRGHOV DSSO\ WKH WRROV RI JDPH WKHRU\ LQ WKHLU DQDO\VLV 1DVK
ZDV WKH ILUVW WR IRUPXODWH D EDUJDLQLQJ SUREOHP 7KH VR FDOOHG 1DVK
EDUJDLQLQJ VROXWLRQ LV WKH FRQFHSW IRU FRRSHUDWLYH EDUJDLQLQJ JDPHV
7KLV VKRXOG EH GLVWLQJXLVKHG IURP WKH 1DVK HTXLOLEULXP ZKLFK LV D
VROXWLRQ FRQFHSW XVHG LQ QRQ FRRSHUDWLYH JDPHV *UDYHOOH DQG 5HHV 1DVK
EDUJDLQLQJ VROXWLRQV KDYH EHHQ DSSOLHG WR PDUULDJHV ZKHUH PDUULDJH LV D VWDWLF

ELODWHUDO PRQRSRO\ ZLWK SRWHQWLDO JDLQV IRU ERWK SDUWLHV WR UHPDLQ PDUULHG

UDWKHU WKDQ WR GLYRUFH 7KHVH VROXWLRQ FRQFHSWV DUH DSSOLFDEOH WR PDQ\ RWKHU

FRRSHUDWLYH FRQIOLFWV H J LQGXVWULDO ODERXU UHODWLRQV

,Q WKH VLPSOHVW IRUP RI D EDUJDLQLQJ SUREOHP WZR SHRSOH FRRSHUDWH

LQ RUGHU WR LPSURYH WKH SRVLWLRQ RI HDFK FRPSDUHG WR D
VLWXDWLRQ LQ ZKLFK WKHVH LQGLYLGXDOV GR QRW FRRSHUDWH 6HQ (DFK
KDV KLV KHU RZQ LQWHUHVWV SUHIHUHQFHV DQG WKXV DOVR LQGLYLGXDO
XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQV 7KHUH LV QR GLFWDWRU LQ WKH KRXVHKROG
'LIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH PDUULDJH DUH UHVROYHG DQG KRXVHKROG GHFLVLRQV
PDGH WKURXJK WKH EDUJDLQLQJ SURFHVV WKH FRRSHUDWLYH JDPH

%DUJDLQLQJ PRGHOV GLIIHU IURP WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHOV LQ WKDW WKH GHFLVLRQ
PDNLQJ SURFHVV ZLWKLQ D KRXVHKROG LV H[SOLFLWO\ VSHFLILHG 7KLV LV DOVR D
IXQGDPHQWDO GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ EDUJDLQLQJ PRGHOV DQG 3DUHWR HIILFLHQW
PRGHOV )XUWKHUPRUH LQ XQLWDU\ PRGHOV RQO\ SRROHG IDPLO\ LQFRPH LV
FRQVLGHUHG ZKHUHDV WKH HPSKDVLV LQ EDUJDLQLQJ PRGHOV LV RQ ZKR DFWXDOO\
FRQWUROV WKH YDULRXV LQFRPH VRXUFHV VHH IRU H[DPSOH 0F(OUR\
0F(OUR\ UDLVHV DQRWKHU LQWHUHVWLQJ SRLQW QDPHO\ H[WUD KRXVHKROG
HQYLURQPHQWDO SDUDPHWHUV PDUULDJH PDUNHWV JRYHUQPHQW WD[HV
HWF ZKLFK GHWHUPLQH WKH RSSRUWXQLW\ FRVW RI IDPLO\ PHPEHUVKLS
DQG DUH WKXV FHQWUDO WR WKH EDUJDLQLQJ SURFHVV

7KH DGGLWLRQDO YDULDEOHV LQFOXGHG LQ WKH EDUJDLQLQJ PRGHOV DOVR

UHTXLUH PRUH GDWD IRU HVWLPDWLQJ WKH GHPDQG V\VWHP %XW DV 0F(OUR\
PHQWLRQV DGGLWLRQDO GDWD ZLWK GHWDLOHG LQIRUPDWLRQ DUH
EHFRPLQJ DYDLODEOH SDUWLFXODUO\ IURP GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV

3KLSSV DQG %XUWRQ OLNHZLVH QRWH WKDW EDUJDLQLQJ SRZHU LQFOXGHV VRFLDO DQG
LQVWLWXWLRQDO YDULDEOHV 5HIHUULQJ WR 0F(OUR\ V VWXG\ WKH\ H[SODLQ WKDW WKH
LQWHUGHSHQGHQFH RI EHKDYLRXUDO RXWFRPH RQ H[WUD HQYLURQPHQWDO SDUDPHWHUV LV D
SUHGLFWLRQ RI WKH GLYRUFH WKUHDW EDUJDLQLQJ PRGHOV WKDW FDQ EH HPSLULFDOO\ WHVWHG
%DUJDLQLQJ SRZHU DQG WKH WKUHDW SRLQW
7KH H[LVWHQFH RI YDULRXV VHOHFWHG FROOXVLYH DUUDQJHPHQWV JLYH
ULVH WR WKH EDUJDLQLQJ SUREOHP ,W LV D FRQWLQXRXV SURFHVV DQG
QHZ TXHVWLRQV WKDW QHHG WR EH VROYHG FRQWLQXH WR HPHUJH 6HQ
7KH EDUJDLQLQJ SUREOHP FDQ EH UHVROYHG LQ GLIIHUHQW ZD\V EXW WKH
VROXWLRQ GHSHQGV RQ WKH EDUJDLQLQJ SRZHU RI HDFK SDUWLFLSDQW

%DUJDLQLQJ SRZHU LV DIIHFWHG E\ WKH UHVRXUFHV FRQWUROOHG E\ HDFK SHUVRQ

ERWK ZLWKLQ DQG EH\RQG WKH KRXVHKROG ,W KDV EHHQ VWDWHG WKDW RXWVLGH
HDUQLQJV KDYH D VWURQJ LQIOXHQFH LQ FUHDWLQJ D GLIIHUHQFH ZLWKLQ D IDPLO\
)DFWRUV VXFK DV EHWWHU HGXFDWLRQ SURGXFWLYH HPSOR\PHQW ZRUNLQJ RXWVLGH
WKH KRPH FRQWULEXWH QRW RQO\ WR LPPHGLDWH ZHOO EHLQJ EXW DOVR WR WKH
DFTXLVLWLRQ RI VNLOOV DQG D EHWWHU IDOO EDFN SRVLWLRQ IRU WKH IXWXUH 6HQ

,I LQGLYLGXDOV IDLO WR FRRSHUDWH WKH RXWFRPH LV FDOOHG WKH VWDWXV TXR

SRVLWLRQ WKH IDOO EDFN SRVLWLRQ RU WKH EUHDN GRZQ SRLQW WHUPV ZKLFK
LQGLFDWH WKDW WHUPLQDWLRQ RI WKH PDUULDJH LV WKH WKUHDW SRLQW RI WKH
PRGHO +RZHYHU DQ\ DUUDQJHPHQW LV SUHVXPHG WR EH EHWWHU IRU ERWK SDUWLHV
WKDQ WKH IDOO EDFN SRVLWLRQ 7KH JUHDWHU RQH PHPEHU V WKUHDW SRLQW WKH
VWURQJHU KLV UHODWLYH YDOXDWLRQ RI JRRGV LQ KRXVHKROG GHPDQGV 0F(OUR\

)HDU RI WKH IDOO EDFN SRVLWLRQ WHQGV WR JRYHUQ WKH EDUJDLQLQJ SURFHVV
DQG WR LQIOXHQFH WKH RXWFRPH 6HQ )XUWKHUPRUH WKH ZLQQHU RI RQH URXQG RI
EDUJDLQLQJ VHHPV WR JDLQ JUHDWHU EDUJDLQLQJ SRZHU LQ WKH QH[W URXQG

6RPH UHVHDUFKHUV KDYH DUJXHG WKDW LW LV QRW IHDVLEOH WR LPSO\ WKDW VSRXVHV
WKUHDWHQ HDFK RWKHU ZLWK GLYRUFH HDFK WLPH WKH\ KDYH D GLVDJUHHPHQW
3KLSSV DQG %XUWRQ 7KLV LQGLFDWHV WKDW WKH GLYRUFH WKUHDWHQLQJ EDUJDLQLQJ
PRGHOV DUH EDVHG RQ UREXVW DQG XQUHDOLVWLF DVVXPSWLRQV

$ PDUULHG FRXSOH LV DVVXPHG WR UHVROYH WKHLU GLIIHUHQFHV DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH

SURFHGXUH GHWDLOHG E\ 1DVK RU E\ VRPH RWKHU H[SOLFLW EDUJDLQLQJ VROXWLRQ

DQG GLYRUFH LV WKH WKUHDW SRLQW²WKH PD[LPXP OHYHO RI XWLOLW\ RXWVLGH WKH

$FFRUGLQJ WR 'XJJDQ LI EDUJDLQLQJ SRZHU LV VHHQ WR GHULYH IURP UHODWLYH

LQFRPHV HTXDOLW\ LQ IDOO EDFN SRVLWLRQV EHWZHHQ PHQ DQG ZRPHQ FDQ EH
HIIHFWHG RQO\ E\ ERWK SDUWLHV HTXDOO\ VKDULQJ KRXVHKROG UHSURGXFWLRQ ZRUN

0F(OUR\ HPSKDVL]HV WKDW EHLQJ PDUULHG GRHV QRW UHIHU

RQO\ WR WKH VR FDOOHG OHJDO PDUULDJHV )RU H[DPSOH SOD\HUV
PD\ EH RI VLPLODU VH[ RU RI GLIIHUHQW JHQHUDWLRQ HWF
IDPLO\ /XQGEHUJ :KHQ VSRXVHV GHFLGH WR GLYRUFH LW LV HYLGHQW WKDW
WKH EHQHILWV IURP WKH PDUULDJH DUH VPDOOHU WKDQ LWV FRVWV

%DUJDLQLQJ SUREOHPV IRU 6HQ IRUP D VSHFLDO FODVV RI FRRSHUDWLYH

FRQIOLFWV $FFRUGLQJ WR 6HQ PHPEHUV RI D KRXVHKROG IDFH WZR W\SHV RI
SUREOHPV VLPXOWDQHRXVO\ WKRVH RI FRRSHUDWLRQ DGGLQJ WR WRWDO
DYDLODELOLW\ DQG WKRVH RI FRQIOLFW GLYLGLQJ WRWDO DYDLODELOLW\ DPRQJ
KRXVHKROG PHPEHUV 6RFLDO DUUDQJHPHQWV²LQFOXGLQJ GHFLVLRQV DV WR ZKR
GRHV ZKDW IRU H[DPSOH WKH VH[XDO GLYLVLRQ RI ODERXU ZKR FRQVXPHV ZKDW
DQG ZKR PDNHV ZKLFK GHFLVLRQV²DUH D UHVSRQVH WR WKLV FRPSRXQG SUREOHP

0DQVHU DQG %URZQ DQDO\VH PDUULDJH ZLWK WKH EDUJDLQLQJ IUDPHZRUN DQG WKH
WZR SHUVRQ FRRSHUDWLYH JDPH WKHRU\ 7KH\ QRWH WKDW WKH EDUJDLQLQJ WKHRU\ LV
PRUH DGYDQWDJHRXV WKDQ WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO EHFDXVH LW DOORZV IRU GLIIHUHQW
XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQV DQG SURYLGHV WKH PHDQV IRU UHFRQFLOLDWLRQ RI GLIIHUHQFHV
0DQVHU DQG %URZQ 0DQVHU V DQG %URZQ V XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQ WKHRU\ LV VLPLODU WR
WKDW LQ WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO 7KH H[LVWHQFH RI QRQ
PDWHULDO JRRGV LV JHQHUDOO\ RYHUORRNHG LQ KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLF PRGHOV %XW
DV 0DQVHU DQG %URZQ QRWH PDUULDJH FDQ SURYLGH ORYH DQG FRPSDQLRQVKLS QRW
MXVW WKH SRVVLELOLW\ WR VKDUH FRQVXPSWLRQ 2QH LQWHUHVWLQJ DVSHFW RI WKH
PRGHO LV WKDW SUHIHUHQFHV DUH QRW H[SHFWHG WR FKDQJH DQG 0DQVHU DQG %URZQ
DVVXPH WKDW SUHIHUHQFHV UHPDLQ WKH VDPH DV D UHVXOW RI RU LQ DQWLFLSDWLRQ
RI WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI D QHZ KRXVHKROG

,W FDQ EH VWDWHG WKDW JHQGHU GLIIHUHQFH LQWHQVLILHV WKH EDUJDLQLQJ

SURFHVV ,I ZH WKLQN RI D KRXVHKROG RI RQO\ PHQ RU RQO\ ZRPHQ RI GLIIHUHQW
DJHV DQG FKDUDFWHULVWLFV EDUJDLQLQJ VWLOO H[LVWV EXW SUHVXPDEO\ WR D
OHVVHU H[WHQW WKDQ LI ERWK VH[HV ZHUH SUHVHQW 2QFH JHQGHU LV LQFOXGHG
LQ WKH SURFHVV ZRPHQ DQG PHQ RI GLIIHUHQW DJHV WKH LQWHUHVWV RI
KRXVHKROG PHPEHUV DUH PRUH YDULHG WKDQ LQ D VLQJOH VH[ KRXVHKROG :RPHQ
DOVR KDYH GLIIHUHQW RSWLRQV ZLWKLQ DQG EH\RQG WKH KRXVHKROG WKDQ PHQ
DQG WKLV DIIHFWV WKH EDUJDLQLQJ SRZHU RI ERWK JHQGHUV

6HL] UHI LQ 'XJJDQ UHIHUULQJ WR WKH G\QDPLF FKDUDFWHU RI KRXVHKROGV

DUJXHV DJDLQVW EDUJDLQLQJ PRGHOV VD\LQJ WKDW IRUPDO PRGHOV KDYH
OLWWOH WR RIIHU KRXVHKROG DQDO\VLV $FFRUGLQJ WR 6HL] IRUPDO PRGHOV
WHQG WR SURYLGH OHVV XVHIXO LQIRUPDWLRQ WKDQ QRQIRUPDO PRGHOV
+RZHYHU 'XJJDQ DUJXHV WKDW IRUPDO EDUJDLQLQJ PRGHOV KDYH LQWURGXFHG
PDQ\ HFRQRPLVWV WR WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI SRZHU GLVWULEXWLRQ LQ
HFRQRPLF RXWFRPHV DV ZHOO DV WR WKH OLPLWDWLRQV RI HFRQRPLF PRGHOV
ZKLFK GR QRW UHFRJQL]H SRZHU ZLWKLQ WKH KRXVHKROG
(PSLULFDO VWXGLHV RQ EDUJDLQLQJ PRGHOV
$V ZLWK WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO WKH SUDFWLFDO DGYDQWDJH RI WKH 1DVK EDUJDLQLQJ
PRGHO LV WR EH DEOH WR VSHFLI\ DQG WR LQWHUSUHW WKH UROH RI H[SODQDWRU\
YDULDEOHV LQ D GHPDQG V\VWHP WKH QXPEHU RI H[SODQDWRU\ YDULDEOHV EHLQJ PXFK
JUHDWHU LQ WKH 1DVK PRGHO WKDQ LQ WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO 0F(OUR\
$FFRUGLQJ WR 0F(OUR\ WKH 1DVK PRGHO DW WKH SUDFWLFDO OHYHO SURYLGHV D
QDWXUDO YHKLFOH IRU DQDO\VLQJ SUREOHPV RI PXWXDO GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ LQ IRUPLQJ
KRXVHKROGV DQG LQ WKH DOORFDWLRQ RI UHVRXUFHV ZLWKLQ KRXVHKROGV 0F(OUR\
TXRWHV KHU VWXG\ IURP WKH \HDU LQ ZKLFK VKH DQDO\VHV WKH PXWXDO GHFLVLRQ
PDNLQJ SURFHVV DPRQJ VRQV DQG WKHLU SDUHQWV FRQFHUQLQJ WKH VRQV ODERXU
IRUFH SDUWLFLSDWLRQ ,Q WKH UXUDO DUHDV RI GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV WKLV UHIHUV
WR SDUHQWV DQG \RXWK MRLQWO\ GHFLGLQJ RQ WKH ODERXU VXSSO\ DQG WKH
PLJUDWLRQ RI WKHVH \RXQJVWHUV WR WKH FLW\

,Q DQ LQWHUHVWLQJ HPSLULFDO VWXG\ FRQGXFWHG LQ 1RUWK &DPHURRQ -RQHV TXHVWLRQV

WKH K\SRWKHVLV WKDW WKH KRXVHKROG LV D MRLQW GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ XQLW DQG WKDW
EDUJDLQLQJ H[LVWV ZLWKLQ D KRXVHKROG 7KH GDWD FDPH IURP D VWXG\
RQ KXVEDQGV PRELOL]LQJ WKHLU ZLYHV IRU ODERXU LQ LUULJDWHG ULFH SURGXFWLRQ
$V SDUW RI WKH IDUPLQJ V\VWHP LQ 1RUWK &DPHURRQ PHQ DQG ZRPHQ KDYH
LQGLYLGXDO VRUJKXP ILHOGV ZKLFK WKH\ FXOWLYDWH VHSDUDWHO\ 0RVW RI WKLV
VRUJKXP LV JURZQ IRU KRPH FRQVXPSWLRQ 5LFH ILHOGV RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG DUH
DOPRVW HQWLUHO\ FXOWLYDWHG WRJHWKHU E\ ERWK VSRXVHV 7KLV LQFRPH LV JLYHQ
WR WKH KXVEDQG IRU FRQWURO DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ 7KH PRQH\ DQG SDGG\ WKH ZLIH
UHFHLYHV IURP KHU VSRXVH DUH UHJDUGHG DV FRPSHQVDWLRQ IRU KHU ZRUN RQ KHU
KXVEDQG V ILHOG ,I FRPSHQVDWLRQ LV FRQVLGHUHG WRR VPDOO E\ WKH ZRPDQ VKH FDQ
UHIXVH WR FRRSHUDWH GHYRWLQJ KHU WLPH WR KHU RZQ VRUJKXP ILHOG RU WR RWKHU
LQFRPH JHQHUDWLQJ DFWLYLWLHV

,Q PDQ\ DUHDV RI $IULFD ZRPHQ KDYH LQGHSHQGHQW DFFHVV WR YDULRXV

LQFRPH JHQHUDWLQJ UHVRXUFHV +RZHYHU WKH UHWXUQV RQ WKHVH
DFWLYLWLHV DUH RIWHQ ORZHU WKDQ WKDW IURP FDVK FURSV :RPHQ DOVR
ODFN DFFHVV WR UHVRXUFHV QHFHVVDU\ IRU SURGXFLQJ FDVK FURSV 7KXV
ERWK VSRXVHV EHQHILW ZKHQ D ZLIH FRRSHUDWHV ZLWK WKH KXVEDQG RQ
FDVK FURS SURGXFWLRQ +RZHYHU WKH VKDUH RI WKH ZLIH V SURILW QHHGV
WR EH JUHDWHU WKDQ WKH RSSRUWXQLW\ FRVW RI KHU ODERXU

$FFRUGLQJ WR -RQHV DJULFXOWXUDO KRXVHKROGV FDQ EH FRQFHSWXDOL]HG DV ELODWHUDO

PRQRSROLHV LQ ZKLFK WKH VSOLW RI EHQHILWV LV VROYHG E\ EDUJDLQLQJ 7KHVH ILQGLQJV
VXJJHVW WKDW WKH EDUJDLQLQJ PRGHO PD\ EH PRUH DGDSW WKDQ WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO LQ
GHVFULELQJ WKH LQWUDKRXVHKROG UHODWLRQV RI SURGXFWLRQ DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ
-RQHV ILQGLQJV DUH LPSRUWDQW IRU H[DPSOH LQ IRUPXODWLQJ SROLFLHV WKDW DIIHFW
DJULFXOWXUDO SURGXFWLRQ ,I WKH FULWHULD FRQWUROOLQJ WKH
DOORFDWLRQ RI LQWUDKRXVHKROG UHVRXUFHV DQG ODERXU DUH QRW
NQRZQ SURMHFWV PD\ EH IRXQGHG RQ XQUHDOLVWLF DVVXPSWLRQV DV
WR WKH SDUWLFLSDWLRQ RI KRXVHKROG PHPEHUV LQ WKH SURGXFWLRQ
RI FHUWDLQ FURSV RU LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH KRXVHKROG

%URZQLQJ HW DO H[DPLQH ZKHWKHU UHODWLYH LQFRPHV RI KRXVHKROG PHPEHUV

DIIHFW DOORFDWLRQ GHFLVLRQV 7KH GDWD ZKLFK FRYHUHG &DQDGLDQ PDUULHG
FRXSOHV ZLWK QR FKLOGUHQ DQG ERWK VSRXVHV ZRUNLQJ IXOO WLPH RULJLQDWHG
IURP D IDPLO\ H[SHQGLWXUH VXUYH\ RQ FORWKLQJ H[SHQVHV RI PHQ DQG ZRPHQ 7KH
UHVXOWV RI WKLV VWXG\ LQGLFDWH WKDW WKH TXHVWLRQ RI ZKR JHWV ZKDW LQ D
KRXVHKROG WKH ILQDO DOORFDWLRQ H[SHQGLWXUHV LV UHODWHG WR UHODWLYH
LQFRPHV DQG WKH DJHV RI WKH WZR SDUWQHUV DV ZHOO DV WKH ZHDOWK RI WKH
KRXVHKROG ,QGLYLGXDO LQFRPHV GLFWDWH FORWKLQJ QHHGV IRU FRXSOHV %URZQ
HW DO FRQFOXGH WKDW WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO LV DGDSWDEOH WR VLQJOH SHRSOH
EXW QRW WR FRXSOHV

1RQ FRRSHUDWLYH PRGHOV

1RQ FRRSHUDWLYH PRGHOV SUHVXPH WKDW LQGLYLGXDOV DUH XQDEOH
WR HQWHU LQWR HQIRUFHDEOH FRQWUDFWV ZLWK RQH RWKHU $Q
LQGLYLGXDO V XQGHUWDNLQJV DUH FRQGLWLRQDO RQ WKH DFWLRQ RI
RWKHUV $OGHUPDQ HW DO 1RQ FRRSHUDWLYH PRGHOV GR QRW H[SHFW
DOO HTXLOLEULD WR EH 3DUHWR RSWLPDO /XQGEHUJ DQG 3ROODN

1RQ FRRSHUDWLYH PRGHOV LPSO\ WKDW ZRPDQ ZRPHQ DQG PDQ PHQ KDYH
VHSDUDWH HFRQRPLHV ZLWKLQ D KRXVHKROG 6RPH UHVHDUFKHUV SLFWXUH D
KRXVHKROG DV FRQVLVWLQJ ODUJHO\ RI VHSDUDWH JHQGHU VSHFLILF HFRQRPLHV D
ZLIH V EXGJHW LV VHSDUDWH IURP KHU KXVEDQG V 6SRXVHV WUDQVIHU LQFRPH
HVWDEOLVKLQJ WKH RQO\ OLQN EHWZHHQ WKHP $OGHUPDQ ,Q IDFW WKLV LV D
SKHQRPHQRQ VHHQ LQ VRPH SDUWV RI $IULFD IRU H[DPSOH ZKHUH PHQ JR EH\RQG
WKH KRXVHKROG WR EX\ IRRG DQG ZRPHQ SUHSDUH LW ZLWKLQ WKH KRXVHKROG IRU
WKH FKLOGUHQ :RPHQ DOORFDWH WKHLU LQFRPH IRU WKH ZHOIDUH RI WKH HQWLUH
KRXVHKROG IRU IRRG FKLOGUHQ V HGXFDWLRQ PDLQWHQDQFH RI WKH KRXVH HWF
0HQ VWUDQJHO\ HQRXJK RIWHQ VSHQG WKHLU LQGLYLGXDO LQFRPH LQ WKH SXEV
VHH IRU H[DPSOH 0DWWLOD

0DQVHU H[DPLQHV GHPDQG SDWWHUQV E\ FRQVLGHULQJ WKH GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH ZRUN

VWDWXV DQG KRXUV RI ZRUN EHWZHHQ PDOHV DQG IHPDOHV LQ 86 KRXVHKROG OHYHO GDWD
,QWHUHVWLQJO\ VKH ILQGV WKDW WKH UHODWLYH ZDJH YDULDEOH GRHV QRW KDYH D VLJQLILFDQW
LPSDFW RQ GHPDQGV VXJJHVWLQJ WKDW EDUJDLQLQJ SRZHU LV QRW DIIHFWHG E\ ZDJH UDWHV

7KH XVH RI WKH WHUP KRXVHKROG LQ WKH FDVH RI VHSDUDWH HFRQRPLHV LV VRPHZKDW

DPELJXRXV ,I WKH GHILQLWLRQ RI D KRXVHKROG LV H[WHQGHG WR WKH FRQFHSW RI PHPEHUV

/XQGEHUJ DQG 3ROODN GHYHORSHG WKH VR FDOOHG VHSDUDWH VSKHUHV EDUJDLQLQJ
PRGHO ZKLFK LV D QRQ FRRSHUDWLYH DSSURDFK WR GLVWULEXWLRQ ZLWKLQ D
PDUULDJH 7KH PRGHO DFNQRZOHGJHV WKH WKHRU\ WKDW GLVWULEXWLRQ EHWZHHQ
VSRXVHV LQ D WZR SDUHQW IDPLO\ GHSHQGV RQ ZKLFK SDUHQW UHFHLYHV H[WUD
LQFRPH VXFK DV FKLOG DOORZDQFH /XQGEHUJ DQG 3ROODN
&RQWUDU\ WR VWDQGDUG EDUJDLQLQJ DSSURDFKHV LQ WKH VHSDUDWH
VSKHUHV EDUJDLQLQJ PRGHO WKH WKUHDW SRLQW LV D QRQ
FRRSHUDWLYH HTXLOLEULXP ZLWKLQ WKH PDUULDJH QRW GLYRUFH

7KLV QRQ FRRSHUDWLYH HTXLOLEULXP LV GHILQHG LQ WHUPV RI WKH WUDGLWLRQDO

JHQGHU UROHV DQG WKHLU H[SHFWDWLRQV ,Q D QRQ FRRSHUDWLYH PDUULDJH WKH
GLYLVLRQ RI ODERXU EDVHG RQ WUDGLWLRQDO JHQGHU UROHV HPHUJHV ZLWKRXW
H[SOLFLW EDUJDLQLQJ ,Q WKH VHSDUDWH VSKHUHV EDUJDLQLQJ PRGHOV WKLV
YROXQWDU\ FRQWULEXWLRQ HTXLOLEULXP DFWV DV D WKUHDW SRLQW IURP ZKLFK
EDUJDLQLQJ HYROYHV ,W LV PRUH EHQHILFLDO IRU ERWK VSRXVHV WR PDLQWDLQ WKH
QRQ FRRSHUDWLYH HTXLOLEULXP WKDQ WR LQLWLDWH EDUJDLQLQJ ZKLFK ZRXOG EULQJ
KLJK DQWLFLSDWHG WUDQVDFWLRQV FRVWV DQG ORZ H[SHFWHG JDLQV

:KDW NHHSV VSRXVHV WRJHWKHU DQG ZKDW GLVWLQJXLVKHV D QRQ FRRSHUDWLYH

PDUULDJH IURP LQGHSHQGHQWO\ RSWLPL]LQJ LQGLYLGXDOV DUH WKH SXEOLF JRRGV RI D
KRXVHKROG WKH PXWXDO FRQVXPSWLRQ HFRQRPLHV WKLV LV DOVR VXJJHVWHG E\
/XQGEHUJ DQG 3ROODN +RZHYHU LQ D QRQ FRRSHUDWLYH HTXLOLEULXP

SXEOLF JRRGV DUH XQGHUVXSSOLHG DQG WKXV SRWHQWLDO

FRRSHUDWLRQ RIIHUV WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI JDLQ

&RRSHUDWLYH DFWLRQ ZLWKLQ WKH KRXVHKROG LV D SUHUHTXLVLWH IRU WKH

HIILFLHQW SURYLVLRQ RI SXEOLF JRRGV ,Q D QRQ FRRSHUDWLYH DWPRVSKHUH
EHWZHHQ VSRXVHV WKH SURYLVLRQ RI SXEOLF JRRGV LV QRW RQO\ LQHIILFLHQW
EXW DOVR IDLOV WR SURYLGH WKH DQWLFLSDWHG ZHOO EHLQJ WR KRXVHKROG
PHPEHUV 7KLV LQWHQVLILHV IXUWKHU ZKHQ WKH KXPDQH DVSHFW LQ WKH
SURYLVLRQ RI SXEOLF JRRGV LV FRQVLGHUHG 0DQ\ SXEOLF JRRGV OLNH FKLOG
FDUH UHO\ RQ ZHOO IXQFWLRQLQJ KXPDQ UHODWLRQV PXWXDO VXSSRUW DQG
DIIHFWLRQ LQ RUGHU WR EH EHQHILFLDO IRU DOO KRXVHKROG PHPEHUV $V FDQ
EH VHHQ WKH FRQFHSW RI KXPDQH KXPDQ FDSLWDO KHOSV WR FODULI\ VRPH NH\
LVVXHV LQ WKH SURYLVLRQ RI KRXVHKROG SXEOLF JRRGV

FRQVWLWXWLQJ RQH HFRQRPLF HQWLW\ WKHQ LW IROORZV LQ WKH FDVH RI QRQ

FRRSHUDWLYH PRGHOV ZH VKRXOG UHIHU WR PDQ\ KRXVHKROGV ZLWKLQ RQH IDPLO\
.RQUDG V DQG /RPPHUXG V QRQ FRRSHUDWLYH PRGHO HQFRPSDVVHV WZR
IDPLO\ PHPEHUV ZKR FDQ GHFLGH ZKHWKHU WR XVH WKHLU WLPH VR DV WR
EHQHILW RQO\ WKHPVHOYHV RU WR SURGXFH D IDPLO\ SXEOLF JRRG
 9 $ &5,7,48(

,Q WKLV VHFWLRQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRULHV ZLWK

UHJDUG WR KRXVHKROG DQG IDPLO\ HFRQRPLFV LV SUHVHQWHG ZLWK
WKH HPSKDVLV RQ WKH IXQGDPHQWDO DVVXPSWLRQV RI WKH PRGHOV

2YHUVLPSOLILFDWLRQ RI UHDOLW\
7KH IRFXV DQG SULPDU\ FRQFHUQ RI WKH FULWLFLVP GLUHFWHG WRZDUGV WKH
WUDGLWLRQDO QHRFODVVLFDO PRGHOV LV WKH ZHDN LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ
HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ JHQXLQH SUREOHPV DQG WKH SROLFLHV IRUPXODWHG WR
VROYH WKHVH LVVXHV ,I WKHUH LV QR FRQWDFW ZLWK DFWXDO HYHQWV WKHRU\
LQ WKH H[WUHPH FDVH EHFRPHV XVHOHVV RU OHDGV WR LPSURSHU SROLF\
UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV RU HYHQ WR DGYHUVH GHYHORSPHQW DLG SURJUDPPHV

3DUWLFXODUO\ ZKHQ GHFLGLQJ DQG DQDO\VLQJ SROLFLHV DQG SURJUDPPHV WKDW

ZLOO KDYH LQIOXHQFH WKH ZHOO EHLQJ RI KRXVHKROGV LW LV LPSRUWDQW WR EH
DZDUH RI WKH UHDO SUREOHPV RI KRXVHKROGV WR XQGHUVWDQG KRZ WKHVH
RSHUDWH DQG WR YLVXDOL]H WKH HIIHFWV SURSRVHG SURJUDPPHV ZLOO KDYH RQ
WDUJHWHG EHQHILFLDULHV VHH H J &RUQLD DQG 6WHZDUW 7KH KRXVHKROG VSKHUH
SDUWLFXODUO\ LWV HFRQRPLF VSKHUH LV FRPSOH[ 7KLV FRPSOLFDWHG
HQYLURQPHQW LWV DFWLRQV PRWLYDWLRQV DQG UHODWLRQV ZLWK RWKHU
KRXVHKROGV DQG VXUURXQGLQJ VRFLHW\ VKRXOG EH H[DPLQHG LQ GHWDLO EHIRUH
DQ\ DFWLRQ ZLWK ORQJ WHUP UDPLILFDWLRQV LV XQGHUWDNHQ 7KLV LVVXH LV
PDGH HYHQ PRUH FHQWUDO E\ WKH UHDOLW\ WKDW DOO KXPDQ EHLQJV EHORQJ WR
DW OHDVW RQH KRXVHKROG

.XULHQ DVNV ZLWK JRRG FDXVH :K\ HFRQRPLFV ZKLFK PDQ\ RI LWV HDUO\
SURSRQHQWV FODLPHG WR EH D VWXG\ RI DQ LPSRUWDQW DVSHFW RI GDLO\
OLIH FRPHV WR EH DOPRVW WRWDOO\ GHWDFKHG IURP FRQFUHWH HFRQRPLF SUREOHPV
+H H[SODLQV WKDW WKLV IDOODF\ LV FDXVHG E\ WKH WHQGHQF\ RI ORJLF DQG
PDWKHPDWLFV WR FUHDWH D XQLYHUVH RI GLVFRXUVH RI LWV RZQ +RZHYHU WKH
SUREOHP OLHV LQ WKH ODFN RI UHOHYDQFH WR FRQWHQWV HFRQRPLF UHDOLW\ VHOI
FRQWDLQLQJ ODQJXDJH RI HFRQRPLF ORJLF ODFN RI XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI KXPDQ
QDWXUH DQG RI VRFLDO UHODWLRQVKLSV $FFRUGLQJ WR .XULHQ WKHUH LV D
GDQJHU WKDW DQ DUWLILFLDOO\ FUHDWHG ZRUOG PD\ EH YLHZHG DV JHQXLQH

.XULHQ DOVR FULWLFL]HV WKH IDFW WKDW PDQ\ DUJXPHQWV DQG HFRQRPLFV WKHRULHV
SUHVXPH WKDW HDFK SDUWLFLSDQW KDV VXIILFLHQW UHVRXUFHV DW KLV KHU GLVSRVDO
WR HQVXUH VXUYLYDO DV ZHOO DV VRPH VXUSOXV WR HQDEOH HQWU\ LQWR PDUNHW
RSHUDWLRQV +RZHYHU DV .XULHQ SRLQWV RXW WKH GHYHORSPHQW SUREOHP LV
IRFXVHG RQ WKH VWUXJJOH IRU PHUH VXUYLYDO E\ YDVW VHFWLRQV RI WKH
SRSXODWLRQ $Q\ DQDO\VLV WKDW LJQRUHV WKLV IDFW VKRXOG QRW EH

FRQVLGHUHG YDOLG 7KLV UHDOLW\ LV DOVR DQ LPSRUWDQW IDFWRU RI HFRQRPLFV

,I WKHRU\ LV XQDEOH WR UHFRJQL]H RU WR DQDO\VH WKH VXUYLYDO VWUXJJOH DQG

HFRQRPLF VXUYLYDO VWUDWHJLHV RI SRRU KRXVHKROGV D ELJ SDUW RI WKH
IXQFWLRQLQJ RI WKH KRXVHKROG LV H[FOXGHG JLYLQJ DQ LQDFFXUDWH SLFWXUH ,I
HFRQRPLF IDFWRUV UHODWHG WR SRYHUW\ DUH QRW XQGHUVWRRG D PDMRU SDUW
RI DOO GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWU\ KRXVHKROGV ZLWK WKHLU SUREOHPV DUH H[FOXGHG

&ULWLFLVP E\ IHPLQLVW HFRQRPLVWV

%HUJPDQQ DUWLFXODWHV KHU FRQFHUQ IRU WKH PDOIXQFWLRQ RI WKH
WUDGLWLRQDO IDPLO\ V\VWHP ZKLFK LQ PDQ\ SDUWV RI WKH ZRUOG IDLOV WR
SURYLGH FKLOGUHQ ZLWK WKH VXSSRUW RI WZR SDUHQW IDPLOLHV RU WR
FRQWURO SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK HWF 0RUH LPSRUWDQWO\ VKH FODLPV WKDW
WKHRUHWLFDO GHYHORSPHQW LQ WKH ILHOG KDV EHHQ IDWDOO\ VLPSOLVWLF
RU HYHQ PLVOHDGLQJ DQG KDV QRW KHOSHG WR VROYH UHDO SUREOHPV

$FFRUGLQJ WR %HUJPDQQ %HFNHU VXSSRUWV WKHRUHWLFDO DSSDUDWXV

WKDW ZDV DFWXDOO\ GHYHORSHG WR DQDO\VH PDUNHWV DQG HFRQRPLF
JURZWK DQG WKDW VKH DSSOLHV WKLV DSSDUDWXV WR IDPLO\ EHKDYLRXU $V
%HUJPDQQ QRWHV %HFNHU OLPLWV WKH WKHRU\ WR YLHZ WKH KRXVHKROG DV
FRQVLVWLQJ RI D GRPLQDWLQJ PDOH PDUULHG WR VXERUGLQDWHG IHPDOH RU
IHPDOHV DQG FKLOGUHQ 7KLV FRQILQHV WKH IRFXV DQG PDNHV PDQ\ RI WKH
FORVHO\ ERQGHG JURXSV XQPDUULHG SDUHQWV HTXDO SDUWQHU SDUHQWV
VLQJOH SDUHQW IDPLOLHV VDPH VH[ SDUWQHUV QRQ H[LVWHQW %HUJPDQQ
VXPPDUL]HV KHU DUJXPHQWV E\ VWDWLQJ WKDW $ FORVH ORRN DW %HFNHU V
DQDO\VLV RI WKH IDPLO\ UHYHDOV LWV XQUHDOLW\ DQG LQDSSOLFDELOLW\ WR
DQ\ UHDO SUREOHPV WKDW SHRSOH LQ RU RXW RI IDPLOLHV KDYH

%HUJPDQQ IXUWKHU FULWLFL]HV %HFNHU IRU EHOLHYLQJ LQ WKH DELOLW\ RI

SDUHG GRZQ PRGHOV ZLWK RQO\ WZR YDULDEOHV WR SURGXFH UHDO IDFWV
HYHQ ZKHQ WKH VLWXDWLRQ EHLQJ DQDO\VHG REYLRXVO\ KDV PDQ\ YDULDEOHV
PRVW RI ZKLFK FDQQRW EH UHSUHVHQWHG RQ D VXSSO\ GHPDQG FXUYH
GLDJUDP %HUJPDQQ ZLVHO\ QRWHV WKDW WKH PDLQ IDXOW ZLWK %HFNHU V
WKHRU\ LV WKDW WKH HQHUJ\ RI WDOHQWHG DFDGHPLFV JHWV GLYHUWHG
LQWR HODERUDWLQJ WKHRULHV RI WKH %HFNHU YDULHW\ UDWKHU WKDQ
SURGXFLQJ ZRUN WKDW ZRXOG KHOS XV LQ VHHLQJ RXU ZD\ WR EHWWHU SROLF\

:RROOH\ FRPSDUHG WR %HUJPDQQ H[SUHVVHV D GLIIHUHQW YLHZ RI %HFNHU V

WKHRU\ $UJXLQJ WKDW WKHUH LV D ZD\ LQ ZKLFK IHPLQLVW HFRQRPLVWV FDQ DSSO\
%HFNHU V WKHRU\ WR WKH HFRQRPLF GLVFRXUVH RI WKH IDPLO\ :RROOH\ GRHV QRW
HQGRUVH WRWDO UHMHFWLRQ RI %HFNHU V K\SRWKHVLV 'HVSLWH WKH
UHOHYDQFH RI :RROOH\ V DUJXPHQW VKH GRHV QRW HODERUDWH RQ KRZ WR GHILQH
DQG LGHQWLI\ WKH XVHIXO HOHPHQWV RI %HFNHU V DSSURDFK :KDW LV WKH
PHDVXUH WR EH XVHG WR GHILQH WKRVH SDUWV RI WKH PRGHO ZKLFK VXSSRUW
VSHFLILF ZRPHQ V SROLFLHV" %HFNHU V WKHRU\ LV EDVHG RQ VDPH VLPSOLILHG
DVVXPSWLRQV DQG RQH FRPSRQHQW LV ILUPO\ OLQNHG WR WKH RWKHU

%XW QHLWKHU GRHV :RROOH\ SUHVHQW D FUHGLEOH EDVH RQ ZKLFK DQ

DOWHUQDWLYH PRGHO VKRXOG EH GHYHORSHG 6KH PHQWLRQV FHUWDLQ
DOWHUQDWLYH PRGHOV ZLWKLQ WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WUDGLWLRQ EXW WKHVH
XQIRUWXQDWHO\ DUH QRW RI PXFK KHOS LQ WKH XOWLPDWH REMHFWLYH RI
IRUPXODWLQJ D QHZ IDPLO\ HFRQRPLFV ZLWK D IHPLQLVW EDFNJURXQG

:KDW LV LQWHUHVWLQJ LQ :RROOH\ V DQDO\VLV DUH KHU WKHRULHV DV WR ZK\

%HFNHU DWWUDFWV VR PDQ\ HFRQRPLVWV )LUVW DQG IRUHPRVW LV WKH
JHQHUDO GLVUHJDUG IRU WKH KLVWRU\ RI HFRQRPLFV WKDW LV DSSDUHQW
WKURXJKRXW WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRULHV 6HFRQG %HFNHU V WKHRU\ DQG
PRGHOV DUH VLPSOH DQG QHDW 7KLUG %HFNHU YDOLGDWHV WKH UHOXFWDQFH
RI HFRQRPLVWV WR DFNQRZOHGJH FRQIOLFW ZLWKLQ D IDPLO\ 0XFK WR :RROOH\
V FKDJULQ WKH HFRQRPLF SURIHVVLRQ KDV DOVR DFFHSWHG %HFNHU V PRUH
FRQWURYHUVLDO ZRUN DQG DOWHUQDWLYH YLHZV PDUJLQDOL]LQJ WKH IDPLO\

7KH VHOI LQWHUHVWHG KXPDQ EHLQJ

7KH WUDGLWLRQDO KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLFV WKHRULHV FRQVLGHU D KXPDQ
EHLQJ DV DQ LQGLYLGXDO VHDUFKLQJ IRU KLV VHOI LQWHUHVW +RZHYHU 6HQ
IRU H[DPSOH SRLQWV WR HYLGHQFH ZKHUH SHUVRQDO ZHOIDUH LV QRW DQ
LVVXH 'R SHRSOH E\ QDWXUH DFW RQ WKH EDVLV RI VHOI LQWHUHVW DV WKH
QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRULHV ZRXOG VXJJHVW" 0RUH LPSRUWDQWO\ ZKDW
PRWLYDWHV SHRSOH WR DFW LQ D VHOI LQWHUHVW PDQQHU" ,V LW D
FKDUDFWHULVWLF ZH DUH ERUQ ZLWK RU GRHV WKH OLYLQJ HQYLURQPHQW
RU VRFLHW\²WKH ZD\ ZH DUH EURXJKW XS²KDYH VRPHWKLQJ WR GR ZLWK LW"

7KH ILQGLQJV RI 6HJXLQR HW DO VXJJHVW WKDW WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ V

K\SRWKHVLV RI VHOI LQWHUHVW LV FRQWUDGLFWHG E\ UHDO OLIH H[SHULHQFHV DQG
WKDW WKDW LW PLVWDNHQO\ UHOLHV RQ WKH XQLYHUVDO DVVXPSWLRQ RI D VHOI
LQWHUHVWHG HFRQRPLF DJHQW &ROOHFWLYH DFWLRQ DQG HPSDWK\ PRWLYDWHG
HFRQRPLF GHFLVLRQV DUH REYLRXV LQ UHDO OLIH ,QGHHG UDWLRQDO DJHQWV DUH PRUH
FRPSOH[ WKDQ WKH FRQFHSW RI KXPDQ RHFRQRPLFXV ZRXOG OHDG XV WR EHOLHYH

$OWUXLVP HYHQ LQ %HFNHU V PRGHO UHJDUGV WKH VHOI LQWHUHVW

RI DQ DOWUXLVW DV RQH RI LWV IXQGDPHQWDO DVVXPSWLRQV
)XUWKHUPRUH 6HJXLQR HW DO UHIHU WR WKH QRWLRQ WKDW PDUNHW HFRQRP\ DQG
DFWLYLWLHV WDNHQ ZLWKLQ D PDUNHW HFRQRP\ VWHHU RXU EHKDYLRXU WRZDUGV VHOI
PRWLYDWLRQ EHFDXVH D SHUVRQ FDQQRW DIIRUG WR WKLQN DERXW WKH EHQHILW RI
RWKHUV ZKLOH RSHUDWLQJ DW PDUNHW $FFRUGLQJ WR 6HJXLQR HW DO LW LV HYLGHQW
WKDW RXU HQYLURQPHQW KHOSV WR VKDSH RXU DFWLRQV DQG RXU FRQFHUQ IRU RWKHU
SHRSOH 6HJXLQR HW DO DOVR ILQG WKDW QRQ FRRSHUDWLYH EHKDYLRXU LV OHDUQHG
DW OHDVW LQ SDUW WKURXJK HFRQRPLFV WUDLQLQJ 0DUZHOO DQG $PHV UHI 6HJXLQR
HW DO KDYH VLPLODU UHVXOWV ZLWK HFRQRPLF VWXGHQWV

,W LV VRPHZKDW DODUPLQJ WR GLVFRYHU WKDW HFRQRPLF WKHRULHV DQG PDUNHW

IRUFHV FRPSHO XV WR DFW DFFRUGLQJ WR WKHVH UXOHV HYHQ ZKHQ LW JRHV DJDLQVW
KXPDQ QDWXUH ,I WKLV LV WUXH WKHQ WKHRU\ GRHV QRW PDWFK UHDOLW\ EXW VKDSHV
LW LQVWHDG LQ WKH GHVLUHG GLUHFWLRQ 7KLV DUJXPHQW VXSSRUWV .XULHQ V
QRWLRQ RI HFRQRPLVWV KDYLQJ WKH WHQGHQF\ WR FUHDWH WKHLU
RZQ ZRUOG UHJDUGOHVV RI UHDO OLIH DQG DFWXDO KXPDQ EHKDYLRXU

,W LV DUJXHG WKDW WKH GHJUHH RI VHOI LQWHUHVWHG EHKDYLRXU YDULHV DFFRUGLQJ

WR JHQGHU *HQGHU DIIHFWV WKH DOORFDWLRQ RI KRXVHKROG UHVRXUFHV :RPHQ
XVXDOO\ VSHQG PRUH UHVRXUFHV WKDQ PHQ RQ WKH ZHOO EHLQJ RI DOO KRXVHKROG
PHPEHUV IRU FKLOGUHQ V HGXFDWLRQ IRRG FRQVXPSWLRQ DQG FORWKLQJ 7KLV LV
XQGLVSXWHGO\ FRQILUPHG LQ QXPHURXV VWXGLHV

5HMHFWLQJ WKH DVVXPSWLRQ RI VHOI LQWHUHVWHG DFWLRQ DV 6HJXLQR HW DO DOVR

PHQWLRQ LQWURGXFHV WKH FRQFHSW RI PD[LPL]LQJ EHKDYLRXU RI DQ LQGLYLGXDO
ZKRVH RQO\ LQWHUHVW LV WR DFKLHYH DV KLJK D OHYHO RI XWLOLW\ DV SRVVLEOH %XW
KXPDQ EHLQJV KDYH RWKHU DLPV WKDQ PHUHO\ PD[LPL]LQJ WKHLU LQGLYLGXDO
PDWHULDO XWLOLW\ 7KLV TXHVWLRQV WKH YHU\ IXQGDPHQWDO DVVXPSWLRQV RI
QHRFODVVLFDO HFRQRPLFV DORQJ ZLWK PDQ\ RI WKH FXUUHQW KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLF
WKHRULHV 6RPH DOWHUQDWLYH PRGHOV RQ KXPDQ EHKDYLRXU KDYH DOUHDG\ EHHQ
SUHVHQWHG ZKLFK DFFHSW KXPDQ EHKDYLRXU DV EHLQJ LQWHUHVWHG LQ ERWK WKH
VHOI DQG WKH FRPPRQ JRRG RI RWKHU KXPDQ EHLQJV 7KHVH LQFOXGH WKH PXOWLSOH
XWLOLW\ DQG PHWD SUHIHUHQFH DSSURDFKHV

+DUPRQ\ DOWUXLVP DQG FDULQJ ZLWKLQ D KRXVHKROG

)ROEUH E DUJXHV DJDLQVW WKH DOWUXLVP DVVXPSWLRQ ZLWKLQ D IDPLO\ $FFRUGLQJ
WR KHU LW LV LQFRQVLVWHQW WR VXJJHVW WKDW LQGLYLGXDOV ZKR DUH H[SHFWHG WR
EH HQWLUHO\ VHOILVK LQ WKH PDUNHW DUH HQWLUHO\ VHOIOHVV ZLWKLQ WKH IDPLO\
ZKHUH WKH\ DUH DVVXPHG WR SXUVXH WKH LQWHUHVW RI FROOHFWLYLW\
D )ROEUH FRUUHODWHV LQHTXDOLW\ ZLWKLQ WKH KRXVHKROG WR WKH
GLIIHUHQW EDUJDLQLQJ SRZHU RI PHQ DQG ZRPHQ 6KH DOVR OLQNV EDUJDLQLQJ
SRZHU WR WKH SDWULDUFKDO SRZHU VWUXFWXUHV LQ VRFLHW\ GLIIHUHQFHV
LQ DFFHVV WR WKH PHDQV RI SURGXFWLRQ ZHDOWK DQG ZDJHV 'HHUH
7KH IRUPDO GHILQLWLRQ RI DOWUXLVP E\ %HFNHU H[FOXGHV WKH WHQGHQF\ WR
IDYRXU HTXDO VKDULQJ RU WKH VDPH VWDQGDUG RI OLYLQJ IRU ERWK SDUWQHUV ,W
GRHV QRW FRYHU LVVXHV OLNH VWDWXV NLQGQHVV GHVLUH IRU D FRPSDVVLRQDWH
PDUULDJH RU SHUVRQDOLW\ DQG LQWHOOHFWXDO GHYHORSPHQW ,Q %HFNHU V
YLHZ WKH VHOI GHVWUXFWLYH EHKDYLRXU LQ IDPLOLHV WKDW GHVWUR\V
KDSSLQHVV QHYHU RFFXUV HYHQ WKRXJKW LW LV IDLUO\ FRPPRQ %HUJPDQQ

&DULQJ LV D WHUP UHFHQWO\ LQWURGXFHG LQ WKH ZULWLQJV RI IHPLQLVW

HFRQRPLVWV ,URQPRQJHU VHHV WKH FDULQJ UROH RI D KRXVHKROG DV
PDLQWHQDQFH RI KXPDQ FDSLWDO RU WKH UHVRXUFH IURP ZKLFK KXPDQ
ODERXU LV VXSSOLHG IRU ERWK WKH KRXVHKROG DQG WKH PDUNHW )RU LWV
FDULQJ DFWLYLWLHV D KRXVHKROG XWLOL]HV LWV RZQ ODERXU KXPDQ
FDSLWDO VSDFH HTXLSPHQW DQG RWKHU SK\VLFDO IDFLOLWLHV ,URQPRQJHU
FODVVLILHV FDUH LQWR WZR FDWHJRULHV SK\VLFDO FDUH ZKLFK LQFOXGHV
PHDOV H[HUFLVH KHDOWK ZDVKLQJ DQG VOHHSLQJ DQG WKH SV\FKRORJLFDO
FDUH VXFK DV HGXFDWLRQ FRQYHUVDWLRQ UHFUHDWLRQ UHVW DQG VOHHS

9, 6800$5< $1' &21&/86,216

6XPPDU\
7KH REMHFWLYH RI WKLV SDSHU ZDV WR UHYLHZ WKH SULQFLSDO DVVXPSWLRQV DQG
DVSHFWV RI WKH YDULRXV WKHRULHV RI KRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU²WKH XQLWDU\
DSSURDFK DQG WKH FROOHFWLYH PRGHOV %RWK RI WKHVH FDWHJRULHV DGKHUH
WR WKH WUDGLWLRQ RI QHRFODVVLFDO HFRQRPLFV 6RPH RI WKH PRUH
FRQWURYHUVLDO SRLQWV LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH SDUWLFXODUO\ E\ IHPLQLVW
HFRQRPLVWV DUH DOVR LQFOXGHG 6XJJHVWLRQV IRU LPSURYHPHQW DUH JLYHQ
WKURXJKRXW WKH SDSHU )XUWKHUPRUH WKH SDSHU SUHVHQWV FHUWDLQ
HPSLULFDO VWXGLHV ZKLFK DWWHPSW WR GHWHUPLQH ZKHWKHU WKH WKHRULHV
XQGHU UHYLHZ DUH DGHTXDWH IRU WKH DQDO\VLV RI KRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU DQG
WR LGHQWLI\ WKH SROLF\ LPSOLFDWLRQV WKDW FDQ EH GUDZQ IURP WKH ILQGLQJV

7KH GHILQLWLRQ RI WKH WHUP KRXVHKROG GLIIHUV FRQVLGHUDEO\ GHSHQGLQJ

RQ WKH WKHRU\ EDVH EHLQJ XVHG )RU H[DPSOH WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO LJQRUHV
WKH LQHTXDOLWLHV DQG GLIIHUHQW XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQV RI KRXVHKROG
PHPEHUV WKDW WKH FROOHFWLYH PRGHOV WU\ WR FDSWXUH 7KH XQLWDU\
PRGHO YLHZV WKH KRXVHKROG DV D KDUPRQLRXV XQLW ZLWK DQ DOWUXLVWLF
SDWULDUFK ZKR NHHSV WKH KRXVHKROG IXQFWLRQLQJ IRU WKH FRPPRQ JRRG
7KH KRXVHKROG LV LQ IDFW WDNHQ WR EH RQH LQGLYLGXDO
7KH FRRSHUDWLYH FROOHFWLYH PRGHOV DFNQRZOHGJH WKDW WKH KRXVHKROG LV
IRUPHG E\ PRUH WKDQ RQH LQGLYLGXDO DQG WKDW FRQIOLFWV DULVH DPRQJ LWV
PHPEHUV GXH WR GLIIHUHQW SUHIHUHQFHV DQG DLPV 7KH FROOHFWLYH PRGHOV
DVVXPH WKDW FHUWDLQ EDUJDLQLQJ UXOHV RU VKDULQJ UXOHV H[LW ZKLFK IRUP
WKH EDVLV IRU GHFLVLRQV PDGH ZLWKLQ WKH KRXVHKROG 7KH QRQ FRRSHUDWLYH
FROOHFWLYH PRGHOV RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG FRQVLGHU VHSDUDWH HFRQRPLHV WR
H[LVW ZLWKLQ RQH KRXVHKROG DQG WKDW LQGLYLGXDOV DUH XQDEOH WR HQWHU
LQWR HQIRUFHDEOH FRQWUDFWV ZLWK HDFK RWKHU

,Q DGGLWLRQ WR WKH FROOHFWLYH PRGHOV LQGLYLGXDO SUHIHUHQFHV FDQ EH

UHFRJQL]HG LQ WKH HIIRUWV WR VXEVWLWXWH DJJUHJDWH SUHIHUHQFHV DQG
DYHUDJH XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQV IRU LQGLYLGXDO RQHV (YHU\ LQGLYLGXDO
XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQ FDQ EH ODEHOOHG ZLWK D SUHGHWHUPLQHG ZHLJKW
6LJQLILFDQW DV WKLV DWWHPSW PLJKW EH LW LV VWLOO H[WUHPHO\ GLIILFXOW
WR LPSOHPHQW DQG VR IDU QR FUHGLEOH PHWKRG KDV EHHQ GHYLVHG

7KH HDUO\ FRQVXPHU WKHRU\ LV WKH VWDUWLQJ SRLQW RI DOO QHRFODVVLFDO KRXVHKROG

HFRQRPLF WKHRULHV GHYHORSHG WKHUHDIWHU 7KLV LV ZK\ LW LV VR YLWDO WR NQRZ WKH

YHU\ EDVLF DVVXPSWLRQV RI WKH WKHRU\ DQG WR H[DPLQH ZKHWKHU WKHVH KDYH VWHHUHG

KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLF WKHRULHV LQ WKH ULJKW GLUHFWLRQ²WKH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKH

KRXVHKROG D FRPSOH[ PXOWL SHUVRQ HQWLW\

7KH WUDGLWLRQDO FRQVXPHU WKHRU\ LV EDVHG RQ WKH K\SRWKHVLV WKDW WKH

LQGLYLGXDO RQH FRQVXPHU²WKH XQLW RI DQDO\VLV²PD[LPL]HV KLV XWLOLW\ E\
XVLQJ PDUNHW JRRGV DQG VHUYLFHV VXEMHFW WR KLV LQFRPH FRQVWUDLQW
7KLV DVVXPSWLRQ LQWURGXFHV RQH RI WKH PDMRU IODZV RI WKH FRQVXPHU
HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ WKH K\SRWKHVLV WKDW WKH FRQVXPHU KDV SHUIHFW
LQIRUPDWLRQ RI WKH SUHVHQW WLPH DQG RI WKH IXWXUH DQG WKH FRQVXPHU
LV DOZD\V DEOH WR FKRRVH WKH EHVW SRVVLEOH EXQGOH IRU KLPVHOI

*DU\ %HFNHU V WKHRU\ WKH VR FDOOHG 1HZ +RXVHKROG (FRQRPLF 7KHRU\ LV WKH
PRVW FRPSOHWH SUHVHQWDWLRQ RI WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO RI KRXVHKROG
EHKDYLRXU DQG EXLOGV RQ WKH WUDGLWLRQDO FRQVXPHU HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ ,W
LQWURGXFHV QHZ LQVLJKWV IRU WKH DQDO\VLV RI KRXVHKROGV 8WLOL]LQJ DQ
HFRQRPLF DSSURDFK WR KXPDQ EHKDYLRXU %HFNHU WDNHV WKH WRROV QRUPDOO\
DSSOLHG LQ PDUNHW EHKDYLRXU DQDO\VLV WR H[SODLQ KRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU
+LV DSSURDFK LQFOXGHV WKUHH FUXFLDO LQWHUUHODWHG DVVXPSWLRQV
PD[LPL]LQJ EHKDYLRXU PDUNHW HTXLOLEULXP DQG VWDEOH SUHIHUHQFHV

7KH PRVW IXQGDPHQWDO FRQWULEXWLRQ RI %HFNHU V WKHRU\ LV WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ

RI WLPH DV D VFDUFH UHVRXUFH LQ WKH GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ SURFHVV RI D FRQVXPHU 7LPH

LV FODVVLILHG DV HLWKHU ODERXU WLPH RU FRQVXPSWLRQ WLPH %HFNHU

FRQVLGHUV WKH FRQVXPHU WR EH HLWKHU D ZRUNHU LQ D PDUNHW VHFWRU
RU D FRQVXPHU EX\LQJ JRRGV DQG VHUYLFHV IURP WKH PDUNHW VHFWRU

%HFNHU DOVR LQWURGXFHV WKH KRXVHKROG SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ E\

H[FHVVLYHO\ H[SORLWLQJ WKH DQDORJ\ RI WKH FRPSHWLWLYH ILUP 7KH
KRXVHKROG LV WDNHQ WR EH D VPDOO IDFWRU\ RU D SURGXFWLRQ XQLW ZKLFK
SURGXFHV EDVLF FRPPRGLWLHV QRQ PDWHULDO JRRGV VOHHS FKLOGUHQ HWF
7KHVH LQ WXUQ SURGXFH XWLOLW\ ,Q KLV DQDO\VLV RI EDVLF FRPPRGLWLHV
%HFNHU LQFOXGHV /DQFDVWHU V FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI FRPPRGLWLHV 7KLV LV
D VLPSOLILHG DFFRXQW RI UHDOLW\ DW WKH KRXVHKROG OHYHO

0DUNHW ZRUN DQG QRQ PDUNHW ZRUN LV GLVWULEXWHG EHWZHHQ KRXVHKROG

PHPEHUV DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH FRPSDUDWLYH DGYDQWDJH SULQFLSOH D IDOVH
FRPSDULVRQ WR LQWHUQDWLRQDO WUDGH )XUWKHUPRUH DFFRUGLQJ WR %HFNHU
KRXVHKROG ZRUN LV IRUHJRQH LQFRPH RU ORVW LQFRPH FRQVWLWXWLQJ ORVW
RSSRUWXQLWLHV ZKHQ QRW SDUWLFLSDWLQJ LQ WKH PDUNHW ZRUN

7KLV SDSHU SUHVHQWV WKH FRQFHSW RI KXPDQH KXPDQ FDSLWDO ZKLFK FRPSOHPHQWV
WKH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI VNLOOV DQG NQRZOHGJH HVVHQWLDO WR KRXVHKROG QRQ
PDUNHW RSHUDWLRQV DQG WR KXPDQH DVSHFWV RI HFRQRPLF EHKDYLRXU 7KH FRQFHSW
RI KXPDQH KXPDQ FDSLWDO RULJLQDWHV IURP WKH IDFW WKDW GHFLVLRQV DUH
PRWLYDWHG E\ PRUH WKDQ PDUNHW FDOFXODWLRQV RU WKH FRPSDUDWLYH DGYDQWDJH
SULQFLSOH ,QFUHDVLQJO\ IDLOLQJ HFRQRPLHV DUH FDXVLQJ SHRSOH WR VHHN VRFLDO
FRQWDFWV DQG QHWZRUNV LQ RUGHU WR KDYH ODVWLQJ KXPDQ UHODWLRQV VKDUH
LQWHUHVWV OHDUQ VNLOOV DQG LQIRUPDWLRQ JLYH DQG UHFHLYH KHOS HWF +XPDQH
KXPDQ FDSLWDO DIIHFWV GLUHFWO\ DQG LQGLUHFWO\ WKH ZHOO EHLQJ RI DQ
LQGLYLGXDO DQG KHU KRXVHKROG E\ LQFUHDVLQJ WKH SURGXFWLYLW\ DQG HIILFLHQF\ RI
KRXVHKROG ZRUN ,W SURPRWHV VHOI VXIILFLHQF\ ZLWKLQ KRXVHKROGV LQ QRQ
WUDGDEOH JRRGV DQG VHUYLFHV

7KH FROOHFWLYH PRGHOV RI KRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU LQFRUSRUDWH FHUWDLQ DVSHFWV

WKDW FRXOG QRW EH DQDO\VHG WKURXJK WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO 7KHVH LQFOXGH WKH
LQWUDIDPLO\ GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ SURFHVV HODERUDWLRQ RI LQGLYLGXDO SUHIHUHQFHV
DQG VXEVHTXHQW PXOWLSOH XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQV ZLWKLQ RQH KRXVHKROG
,QGLYLGXDOLW\ RI KRXVHKROG PHPEHUV DQG LQHTXDOLW\ EHWZHHQ PHPEHUV DUH DOVR
UHFRJQL]HG %XW WKH ZLGH UDQJH RI FROOHFWLYH PRGHOV RI KRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU
KDV EHHQ WKH VXEMHFW RI DWWHPSWV WR GHYHORS WKHVH LQWR QHZ IRUPV DQG HYHQ
QHZ IUDPHZRUNV ,Q SDUWLFXODU JHQGHU SHUVSHFWLYH LQ KRXVHKROG RSHUDWLRQV
KDV JDLQHG PXFK DWWHQWLRQ

7KH PDLQ FULWLFLVP RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO KRXVHKROG PRGHOV LQ WKLV SDSHU LV WKH

IDFW WKDW WKHVH PRGHOV GR QRW SURYLGH DGHTXDWH DQDO\WLFDO WRROV IRU

XQGHUVWDQGLQJ UHDOLW\ :LWKRXW KHOSLQJ WR XQGHUVWDQG JHQXLQH SUREOHPV DQG

FLUFXPVWDQFHV WKHRU\ LV RQO\ DQ DEVWUDFW
FRQFHSW WKDW VHUYHV QR XVHIXO SXUSRVH
,PSOLFDWLRQV IRU SROLFLHV WKDW DUH EDVHG RQ WKH HPSLULFDO ILQGLQJV
SUHVHQWHG LQ WKLV SDSHU VKRXOG WR EH GUDZQ ZLWK FDXWLRQ EHFDXVH
QRQH RI WKH WHVWV SURYLGH VXIILFLHQW HYLGHQFH LQ IDYRXU RI RQH
SDUWLFXODU PRGHO RQO\ )RU H[DPSOH 5XXVNDQHQ ZKR WHVWHG KRXVHKROG
HFRQRPLF PRGHOV DQG UHYLHZHG VRPH RI WKH HDUOLHU WHVWV LV FDUHIXO
QRW WR PDNH DQ\ SROLF\ UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV +H FRQFOXGHV WKDW LW LV WRR
HDUO\ WR GHWHUPLQH SROLF\ LPSOLFDWLRQV RI WKH PRGHOV ZLWKRXW PRUH
HYLGHQFH WR YDOLGDWH FHUWDLQ PRGHOV

+DYLQJ VDLG WKLV RQH SROLF\ FRQFOXVLRQ FDQ EH PDGH ZLWKRXW WRR PXFK URRP IRU
HUURU DQG WKDW LV WKH UHMHFWLRQ RI WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO LQ DOO FDVHV
H[FHSW LQ VLQJOH SHUVRQ KRXVHKROGV ,W LV REYLRXV WKDW KRXVHKROG
EHKDYLRXU SURJQRVLV EHFRPHV PRUH DFFXUDWH LI LQWUDKRXVHKROG
GLVWULEXWLRQ LQFOXGLQJ LQHTXDOLW\ ZLWKLQ WKH KRXVHKROG DUH LQFOXGHG
LQ WKH DQDO\VLV %XW WKH UHMHFWLRQ RI WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO GRHV LPSO\ WKDW
WKH FROOHFWLYH PRGHOV DUH DFFXUDWH HLWKHU +HUH DOVR PRUH HPSLULFDO
WHVWV ZLWK DSSURSULDWH GDWD DUH QHHGHG DQG D FRPPRQ IUDPHZRUN VKRXOG
EH GHYHORSHG WR PDNH WHVW UHVXOWV PRUH FRPSDUDEOH

$OWKRXJK FROOHFWLYH PRGHOV DUH EHWWHU WKDQ WKH XQLWDU\ PRGHO LQ

EULQJLQJ LQVLJKWV WR KRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU E\ RSHQLQJ WKH EODFN ER[ ²WKH
IDPLO\² GLIILFXOWLHV GR DULVH LQ WHVWLQJ WKH FROOHFWLYH DSSURDFK $W WKH
YHU\ OHDVW DGGLWLRQDO GDWD DUH UHTXLUHG 5XXVNDQHQ KDV OLVWHG VRPH RI
WKHVH FROOHFWLYH PRGHO GDWD UHTXLUHPHQWV 7KH\ LQFOXGH DPRQJ RWKHUV
LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ SULFHV KRXVHKROG OHYHO LQFRPH QRQ ODERXU LQFRPH
SDUWLFXODUV RQ H[WUD HQYLURQPHQW SDUDPHWHUV JRYHUQPHQW WD[HV
GLYRUFH ODZV HWF DQG GDWD RQ WKUHDW SRLQWV DV ZHOO DV PRUH
DFFXUDWH VWDWLVWLFV RQ ZRPHQ V FRQWULEXWLRQ DQG GLYLVLRQ RI WDVNV
ZLWKLQ WKH KRXVHKROG 7KLV KDV SURYHQ WR EH D FRPSOLFDWHG WDVN

0RVW RI WHVWV FDWHJRULFDOO\ RYHUORRN IHPDOH KHDGHG DQG VLQJOH SDUHQW

KRXVHKROGV (YLGHQFH IURP WKH GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV FRQILUPV WKDW IHPDOH
KHDGHG KRXVHKROGV DUH YHU\ FRPPRQ SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ $IULFD EXW KRZ FDQ

SROLFLHV EH GLUHFWHG WR WKHVH WDUJHW JURXSV LI IHPDOH KHDGHG KRXVHKROGV

ZLWK QXPHURXV FKLOGUHQ DUH QRW WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW LQ WKHRU\ RU LQ WHVWV"

,Q SHU FHQW RI DOO KRXVHKROGV LQ 5ZDQGD ZHUH IHPDOH KHDGHG 81

,Q WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ SHUFHQWDJH LQ 0DODZL ZDV DQG LQ
LQ .HQ\D
7KH PDQ\ OLPLWDWLRQV DQG DVVXPSWLRQV RI WKH WHVWV DQG UHVWULFWHG SRSXODWLRQ
VDPSOHV PDNH LW LPSRVVLEOH WR JHQHUDOL]H WKH UHVXOWV WR WKH ZKROH SRSXODWLRQ
&RXQWU\ ERXQGDULHV FXOWXUHV UHOLJLRQV HWF SODFH UHVWULFWLRQV RQ WKH
DSSOLFDELOLW\ RI WKH WHVWV DQG LW LV HYLGHQW WKDW WKHVH FDQQRW RIIHU SUHFLVH
LQIRUPDWLRQ IRU SROLF\ LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ LQ DOO FRQGLWLRQV :H QHHG WR DVN XQGHU
ZKDW FRQGLWLRQV DUH WKHVH ILQGLQJV DSSOLFDEOH DQG ZKHUH"

,Q DGGLWLRQ WR DFNQRZOHGJLQJ LQWUDKRXVHKROG GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG

LQHTXDOLWLHV LW LV HTXDOO\ LPSRUWDQW LV WR UHFRJQL]H WKDW WKHUH
DUH QXPHURXV YDOXDEOH H[FKDQJHV DQG WUDQVIHUV EHWZHHQ KRXVHKROGV
D IDFW RIWHQ IRUJRWWHQ :LOOLDPV DQG 0DUTXHV FRQGXFW D XQLTXH VWXG\ LQ
ZKLFK WKH\ DVVHVV WKH LQWHUKRXVHKROG H[FKDQJH RI JRRGV DQG VHUYLFHV
LQ $QJOR DQG 0H[LFDQ $PHULFDQ IDPLOLHV DV ZHOO DV LQ %UD]LOLDQ IDPLOLHV
7KH\ FODLP WKDW DV WKH LQIRUPDO VHFWRU LQFUHDVHV LQ WKH IXWXUH PRUH
DQG PRUH QHWZRUNV EHWZHHQ KRXVHKROGV ZLOO HPHUJH

0\ UHYLHZ RI WKH KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLF WKHRULHV LQGLFDWHV WKDW QR WKHRU\ LV

GRPLQDQW (YHQ WKH WHUPLQRORJ\ XVHG LQ KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLFV UHOLHV RQ
FRQFHSWV IURP WKH WKHRU\ RI FRQVXPHU FKRLFH RU RI WKH ILUP ,W LV HVVHQWLDO LQ
WKHRU\ DQG LQ HPSLULFDO WHVWV WR GHSLFW DOO WKH PXOWL IDFHWHG HOHPHQWV RI
YDULRXV KRXVHKROGV WKHVH PD\ LQFOXGH PDQ\ DGXOWV RU PDQ\ FKLOGUHQ VRPH HDUQ
UHJXODUO\ VRPH ZRUN LQ WKH LQIRUPDO VHFWRU VRPH DGXOWV DUH LQYROYHG
FRPSOHWHO\ LQ WKH KRXVHKROG VXEVLVWHQFH SURGXFWLRQ HWF

7KLV UHYLHZ VXSSRUWHG E\ HPSLULFDO ILQGLQJV FOHDUO\ KLJKOLJKWV WKH REYLRXV

QHHG WR GHYHORS H[LVWLQJ KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLF WKHRULHV IXUWKHU RU HYHQ WR
LQWURGXFH D FRPSOHWHO\ QHZ DQDO\VLV RI KRXVHKROG EHKDYLRXU 3HUKDSV WKH
GHYHORSPHQW RI D QHZ DSSURDFK FRXOG PDNH XVH RI WKH FRQWURYHUVLDO LVVXHV
SUHVHQWHG KHUH $ PRUH FRPSUHKHQVLYH DSSURDFK WKDW FRXOG UHDOLVWLFDOO\
DUWLFXODWH DFWXDO FLUFXPVWDQFHV ZRXOG DOVR PHDQ WKDW EHWWHU GHVLJQHG
SROLFLHV FDQ IXOILO WKHLU REOLJDWLRQV WR WKH WDUJHW JURXSV

&RQFOXVLRQV
,W LV HDV\ WR HOXGH WKH FKDOOHQJLQJ SUREOHP SRVHG E\ KRXVHKROGV DQG WKHLU

HFRQRPLF DQG VRFLDO RSHUDWLRQV E\ UHYLHZLQJ WKH SUREOHP WKURXJK

WUDGLWLRQDO DSSURDFKHV OLNH WKH FRQVXPHU FKRLFH WKHRU\ WKH ILUP WKHRU\ RU

6LPLODU UHVXOWV DUH IRXQG LQ 7DQ]DQLD 0DWWLOD ZKHUH QHWZRUNV EHWZHHQ

KRXVHKROGV KDYH D SRVLWLYH HIIHFW RQ KRXVHKROG LQFRPH HDUQLQJ DQG RQ WKH ZHOIDUH RI
LWV PHPEHUV 1HWZRUNV DOVR KDYH DQ LPSDFW RQ WKH HFRQRP\ DV D ZKROH WKURXJK WKH
FUHDWLRQ RI QHZ HFRQRPLF RSSRUWXQLWLHV IRU HDUQLQJ KRXVHKROG LQFRPH
RWKHU DEVWUDFW PRGHOV :LWKRXW KHVLWDWLRQ QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRULHV DUH
WDNHQ DV JRRG UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV RI KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLF EHKDYLRXU \HW
WKHVH DUH DFWXDOO\ EDVHG RQ VLPSOLVWLF DVVXPSWLRQV RI KXPDQ EHKDYLRXU

$Q LPSURYHPHQW RI WKH KRXVHKROG DQG IDPLO\ ZHOO EHLQJ QHHG QRW GHSHQG RQ
WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI PDUNHW HFRQRP\ SULQFLSOHV RQO\ 3HRSOH FRQWLQXH WR
VHDUFK IRU QRQ PDUNHW LQVWLWXWLRQV VXFK DV VHFXULW\ FORVHQHVV KXPDQLW\ DQG
VRFLDO FRQQHFWLRQV WR LPSURYH WKHLU ORW WKH IDPLO\ LV WKH ILUVW SODFH WR
EHJLQ WKH VHDUFK IRU WKHVH +XPDQ ZHOIDUH LV EDVHG RQ WKH VWUXFWXUH DQG
RSHUDWLRQV RI KRXVHKROGV DV ZHOO DV RQ RWKHU LQVWLWXWLRQV RI VRFLHW\

,I KRXVHKROGV RSHUDWH SRRUO\ RU LQHIILFLHQWO\ H J LI WKH\ LJQRUH VRPH RI WKHLU

PHPEHUV RU DUH XQDEOH WR IXOILO WKH EDVLF QHHGV RI RWKHUV WKH ZKROH VRFLHW\
LV DGYHUVHO\ DIIHFWHG :KHQ D KRXVHKROG PDOIXQFWLRQV DQG FDQQRW VDWLVI\ WKH
QHHGV RI LWV PHPEHUV LW LV WKH UHVSRQVLELOLW\ RI WKH VRFLHW\ DQG
JRYHUQPHQWDO ERGLHV WR WDNH DFWLRQ IRU WKH VXSSRUW RI WKH KRXVHKROG 7KLV
VKRXOG EH VR SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ WKH SURYLVLRQ RI KRXVHKROG SXEOLF JRRGV

7KHUH LV DQ XUJHQW QHHG WR IRUPXODWH UHDOLVWLF KRXVHKROG HFRQRPLF

WKHRULHV VR DV WR RYHUFRPH WKH FRQILQHV LPSRVHG E\ WKH ROG WKHRULHV
RQ DQDO\VWV DQG SUDFWLWLRQHUV IRU VR ORQJ 7KH GHYHORSPHQW RI D QHZ
HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ RI WKH KRXVHKROG UHTXLUHV WKH EUDYH LQFRUSRUDWLRQ
RI WKH KXPDQH DVSHFWV RI KRXVHKROG RSHUDWLRQV LQWR WKHRU\
DVVXPSWLRQV $ FRPSOHWHO\ QHZ HFRQRPLF YLHZSRLQW VKRXOG EH DGRSWHG
WR VHH WKH KXPDQ EHLQJ DQG KLV HFRQRPLF RSHUDWLRQV LQ D EURDGHU
IUDPHZRUN ZKLFK LQFOXGHV WKH PDUNHW V\VWHP DV D VSHFLDO FDVH

7KH SUHYDLOLQJ GLVUHJDUG IRU KRXVHKROG QHHGV DQG IRU WKH WUXH
VWUXFWXUH RI LWV HFRQRPLF DQG VRFLDO RSHUDWLRQV RIWHQ UHVXOWV LQ
KD]DUGRXV FRQVHTXHQFHV ZKHQ SXEOLF SROLF\ LV XVHG WR LQIOXHQFH WKH
ZHOO EHLQJ RI SHRSOH SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ WKH GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV
 $33(1',; 7$%/(
$ &203$5,621 2) 0$,1 )($785(6 2) 7+( 9$5,286 (&2120,& 02'(/6

&RQVXPHU WKHRU\ %HFNHU V PRGHO (IILFLHQW %DUJDLQLQJ PRGHOV 1RQ FRRSHUDWLYH

FRRSHUDWLYH PRGHOV PRGHOV

1R RI PHPEHUV 2QH LQGLYLGXDO RQH

7ZR LQGLYLGXDOV ZLWK RZQ 7ZR LQGLYLGXDOV ZLWK 7ZR LQGLYLGXDOV ZLWK 7ZR LQGLYLGXDOV ZLWK
FRQVXPHU ZLWK RZQ SUHIHUHQFHV RQH
RZQ SUHIHUHQFHV RZQ SUHIHUHQFHV RZQ SUHIHUHQFHV
HJRLVWLF SUHIHUHQFHV LQGLYLGXDO KDV

DOWUXLVWLF SUHIHUHQFHV

1R RI XWLOLW\ 2QH XWLOLW\ 2QH XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQ 7ZR XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQV 7ZR XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQV 7ZR XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQV

IXQFWLRQ IXQFWLRQV
8WLOLW\ 8WLOLW\ GHSHQGV RQ WKH 8WLOLW\ LV GHULYHG 8WLOLW\ GHSHQGV 8WLOLW\ GHSHQGV RQ 8WLOLW\ GHSHQGV RQ
FRQVXPSWLRQ RI IURP WKH FRQVXPSWLRQ RQ WKH PHPEHU V LQGLYLGXDO LQGLYLGXDO
PDUNHW JRRGV FRQVXPSWLRQ SOXV WKH FRQVXPSWLRQ SOXV WKH
RI µEDVLF FRPPRGLWLHV RZQ FRQVXPSWLRQ
FRQVXPSWLRQ RI FRQVXPSWLRQ RI
KRXVHKROG SXEOLF KRXVHKROG SXEOLF
JRRGV JRRGV

,QWUDKRXVHKROG 1R FRQIOLFWV 0HPEHU V RZQ 7KHUH LV QR %DUJDLQLQJ SURFHVV

+RXVHKROG KDV
EHKDYLRXU LQGLYLGXDO PD[LPL]HV SUHIHUHQFHV FDXVH DVVXPSWLRQ DERXW WKURXJK FRRSHUDWLYH VHSDUDWH JHQGHU
RZQ XWLOLW\ IXQFWLR FRQIOLFWV ZKLFK DUH LQWUDKRXVHKROG JDPH VROXWLRQ VSHFLILF HFRQRPLHV
UHVROYHG WKURXJK EHKDYLRXU GHFLVLRQV GHSHQGV RQ WKH WKHUH LV LQFRPH
WKH DOWUXLVWLF PDGH DUH 3DUHWR EDUJDLQLQJ SRZHU RI WUDQVIHUV EHWZHHQ
EHKDYLRXU RI RQH HIILFLHQW WKH VKDULQJ HDFK SDUWLFLSDQW WKH ZLIH DQG KXVEDQG
KRXVHKROG PHPEHU UXOH GLYLGHV WKH UHVXOW LV 3DUHWR EDUJDLQLQJ LV
UHVRXUFHV EHWZHHQ HIILFLHQW
GHVFULEHG E\ QRQ
FRRSHUDWLYH JDPH
KRXVHKROG PHPEHUV
QRW DOO HTXLOLEULD
DUH 3DUHWR RSWLPDO
7KUHDW SRLQW 2XWVLGH RSWLRQ 1RQ FRRSHUDWLYH
GLYRUFH HTXLOLEULXP ZLWKLQ
PDUULDJH IURP ZKLFK
EDUJDLQLQJ SURFHHGV
HTXLOLEULXP LV EDVHG
RQ WUDGLWLRQDO JHQGHU
UROHV DQG
VSHFLDOL]DWLRQ WR
FHUWDLQ WDVNV
6RXUFH &RPSLOHG

E\ WKH DXWKRU
 5()(5(1&(6

$OGHUPDQ +DUROG HW DO 8QLWDU\ YHUVXV FROOHFWLYH

PRGHOV RI WKH KRXVHKROG ,V LW WLPH WR VKLIW WKH
EXUGHQ RI SURRI" 7KH :RUOG %DQN 5HVHDUFK 2EVHUYHU
$WNLQVRQ $ % DQG 1 + 6WHUQ 2Q WKH /DERXU 6XSSO\ DQG
&RPPRGLW\ 'HPDQGV ,Q 7KH 7KHRU\ DQG 0HDVXUHPHQW RI
&RQVXPHU %HKDYLRU HGLWHG E\ $QJXV 'HDWRQ
&DPEULGJH &DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV
%HFNHU * $ 7KHRU\ RI WKH $OORFDWLRQ RI 7LPH 7KH
(FRQRPLF -RXUQDO /;;9 6HSWHPEHU
%HFNHU * (FRQRPLF $QDO\VLV DQG +XPDQ %HKDYLRU ,Q
6RFLRORJLFDO (FRQRPLFV HGLWHG E\ /RXLV /pY\
*DUERXD /RQGRQ 6DJH 3XEOLFDWLRQV /WG
%HFNHU * $ 7UHDWLVH RQ WKH )DPLO\ &DPEULGJH 86$
+DUYDUG 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV
%HFNHU * 1REHO /HFWXUH 7KH (FRQRPLF :D\ RI /RRNLQJ
DW %HKDYLRU -RXUQDO RI 3ROLWLFDO (FRQRP\
%HUJPDQQ %DUEDUD 5 %HFNHU V WKHRU\ RI WKH IDPLO\
SUHSRVWHURXV FRQFOXVLRQV )HPLQLVW (FRQRPLFV ,$))(
%HUJVWU|P 7KHRGRUH & $ 6XUYH\ RI 7KHRULHV RI WKH )DPLO\ ,Q
+DQGERRN RI 3RSXODWLRQ DQG )DPLO\ (FRQRPLFV HGLWHG E\
0DUN 5 5RVHQ]ZHLJ DQG 2GHG 6WDUN +DQGERRNV LQ (FRQRPLFV
$PVWHUGDP 1HWKHUODQGV (OVHYLHU
%RXUJXLJQRQ )UDQFRLV 0DUWLQ %URZQLQJ 3LHUUH $QGUp
&KLDSSRUL DQG 9DOpULH /HFKHQH ,QWUD +RXVHKROG
$OORFDWLRQ RI &RQVXPSWLRQ D 0RGHO DQG 6RPH (YLGHQFH
IURP )UHQFK 'DWD $QQDOHV G eFRQRPLH HW GH 6WDWLVWLTXH
%URZQLQJ 0DUWLQ )UDQFRLV %RXUJXLJQRQ 3LHUUH $QGUp &KLDSSRUL
DQG 9DOpULH /HFKHQH ,QFRPH DQG 2XWFRPHV $ 6WUXFWXUDO 0RGHO
RI ,QWUDKRXVHKROG $OORFDWLRQ -RXUQDO RI 3ROLWLFDO (FRQRP\
&KLDSSRUL 3LHUUH $QGUp 5DWLRQDO +RXVHKROG
/DERXU 6XSSO\ (FRQRPHWULFD
&KLDSSRUL 3LHUUH $QGUp &ROOHFWLYH /DERXU 6XSSO\
DQG :HOIDUH -RXUQDO RI 3ROLWLFDO (FRQRP\
&RUQLD * $ DQG )UDQFHV 6WHZDUW 7ZR (UURUV RI 7DUJHWLQJ ,QQRFHQWL
2FFDVLRQDO 3DSHUV 1R )ORUHQFH ,WDO\ 81,&()²,&'&
'HHUH &DUPHQ 'LDQD :KDW 'LIIHUHQFH 'RHV *HQGHU 0DNH"
5HWKLQNLQJ 3HDVDQW 6WXGLHV )HPLQLVW (FRQRPLFV
'XJJDQ /\QQ 5H VWDFNLQJ WKH 'HFN )DPLO\ 3ROLF\ DQG
:RPHQ V )DOO %DFN 3RVLWLRQ LQ *HUPDQ %HIRUH DQG
$IWHU 8QLILFDWLRQ )HPLQLVW (FRQRPLFV
(DVWZRRG 'DYLG % 7KH (FRQRPLFV RI &RQVXPHU
%HKDYLRU 0DVVDFKXVHWWV $OO\Q DQG %HDFRQ ,QF
(OOLV )UDQN 3HDVDQW (FRQRPLFV )DUP +RXVHKROGV DQG $JUDULDQ
'HYHORSPHQW 1HZFDVWOH &DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV
(VWROD 0DWWL .DQVDQWDORXVWLHWHHQ 3HUXVWHHW
3XEOLFDWLRQV 1R -\YlVN\Ol )LQODQG 'HSDUWPHQW RI
(FRQRPLFV 8QLYHUVLW\ RI -\YlVN\Ol
)ROEUH 1DQF\ D +HDUWV DQG 6SDGHV 3DUDGLJPV RI
+RXVHKROG (FRQRPLFV :RUOG 'HYHORSPHQW
)ROEUH 1DQF\ E &OHDQLQJ +RXVH 1HZ 3HUVSHFWLYHV RQ +RXVHKROGV
DQG (FRQRPLF 'HYHORSPHQW -RXUQDO RI 'HYHORSPHQW (FRQRPLFV
)RUWLQ %HUQDUG DQG *X\ /DFURL[ $ WHVW RI WKH XQLWDU\ DQG FROOHFWLYH
PRGHOV RI KRXVHKROG ODERXU VXSSO\ 7KH (FRQRPLF -RXUQDO -XO\

*DOEUDLWK -RKQ .HQQHWK (FRQRPLFV DQG WKH 3XEOLF

3XUSRVH %RVWRQ +RXJKWRQ 0LIIOLQ &RPSDQ\
*UDYHOOH + DQG 5 5HHV 0LFURHFRQRPLFV (VVH[ 8. /RQJPDQ
*URQDX 5HXEHQ +RPH 3URGXFWLRQ $ 6XUYH\ +DQGERRN
RI /DERXU (FRQRPLFV 9RO HGLWHG E\ $VKHQIHOWHU
DQG /D\DUG $PVWHUGDP (OVHYLHU 6FLHQFH 3XEOLVKHUV
+DGGDG /DZUHQFH ,QWURGXFWLRQ 8QGHUVWDQGLQJ +RZ 5HVRXUFHV
DUH $OORFDWHG :LWKLQ +RXVHKROGV 3DSHU SUHVHQWHG DW WKH
&RQIHUHQFH ,QWUDKRXVHKROG 5HVRXUFH $OORFDWLRQ 3ROLF\ ,VVXHV
DQG 5HVHDUFK 0HWKRGV )HEUXDU\ :DVKLQJWRQ '& 7KH :RUOG %DQN
,QWHUQDWLRQDO )RRG 3ROLF\ 5HVHDUFK ,QVWLWXWH
+DGGDG /DZUHQFH DQG 5DYL .DQEXU +RZ 6HULRXV LV WKH 1HJOHFW RI
,QWUD +RXVHKROG LQHTXDOLW\" 7KH (FRQRPLF -RXUQDO
+DZU\O\VK\Q 2OL 7RZDUGV D GHILQLWLRQ RI QRQ PDUNHW
DFWLYLWLHV 7KH 5HYLHZ RI ,QFRPH DQG :fHDOWK 6HULHV 0DUFK
,URQPRQJHU 'XQFDQ &RXQWLQJ 2XWSXWV &DSLWDO ,QSXWV
DQG &DULQJ /DERXU )HPLQLVW (FRQRPLFV
 -DFREVHQ -RLFH 3 7KH (FRQRPLFV RI *HQGHU &DPEULGJH
86$ %ODFNZHOO
.RQUDG .DL $ DQG .MHOO (ULN /RPPHUXG )DPLO\ 3ROLF\ ZLWK 1RQ
FRRSHUDWLYH )DPLOLHV 6FDQGLQDYLDQ -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLFV
.UHSV 'DYLG 0 7KH ,QWHUDFWLRQ %HWZHHQ 1RUPV DQG (FRQRPLF
,QFHQWLYHV ,QWULQVLF 0RWLYDWLRQV DQG ([WULQVLF ,QFHQWLYHV 7KH
$PHULFDQ (FRQRPLF 5HYLHZ 3DSHUV DQG 3URFHHGLQJV 0D\
.UXJPDQ 3DXO 5 DQG 0DXULFH 2EVWIHOG ,QWHUQDWLRQDO
(FRQRPLFV 7KHRU\ DQG 3ROLF\ 1HZ <RUN +DUSHU &ROOLQV
3XEOLVKHUV
.XULHQ & 7 5HWKLQNLQJ (FRQRPLFV 5HIOHFWLRQV EDVHG RQ D 6WXG\
RI WKH ,QGLDQ (FRQRP\ 1HZ 'HOKL 6DJH 3XEOLFDWLRQV ,QGLD
/OR\G &\QWKLD % DQG $QDVWDVLD - *DJH %UDQGRQ :RPHQ V
5ROH LQ 0DLQWDLQLQJ +RXVHKROGV )DPLO\ :HOIDUH DQG
6H[XDO ,QHTXDOLW\ LQ *KDQD 3RSXODWLRQ 6WXGLHV 5HIHUUHG
WR LQ 7KH (FRQRPLFV RI WKH )DPLO\ HGLWHG 1DQF\ )ROEUH
/XQGEHUJ 6KHOO\ DQG 5REHUW $ 3ROODN 6HSDUDWH 6SKHUHV
%DUJDLQLQJ DQG WKH 0DUULDJH 0DUNHW -RXUQDO RI 3ROLWLFDO (FRQRP\

/XQGEHUJ 6KHOO\ DQG 5REHUW $ 3ROODN

1RQFRRSHUDWLYH %DUJDLQLQJ 0RGHOV RI 0DUULDJH
7KH $PHULFDQ (FRQRPLF 5HYLHZ 3DSHUV DQG
3URFHHGLQJV
0DQVHU 0DULO\Q ( WKH $OORFDWLRQ RI &RQVXPSWLRQ E\ 0DUULHG
&RXSOH )DPLOLHV LQ WKH 86 $Q $QDO\VLV &RQGLWLRQLQJ RQ
/DERXU 6XSSO\ $QQDOHV G eFRQRPLH HW GH 6WDWLVWLTXH
0DQVHU 0DULO\Q DQG 0XUUD\ %URZQ 0DUULDJH DQG
KRXVHKROG GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ D EDUJDLQLQJ DQDO\VLV
,QWHUQDWLRQDO (FRQRPLF 5HYLHZ )HEUXDU\
0DV &ROHOO $QGUHX 0LFKDHO ' :KLQVWRQ DQG -HUU\ 5 *UHHQ
0LFURHFRQRPLF 7KHRU\ 1HZ <RUN 2[IRUG 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV
0DWWLOD 3lLYL $ VWXG\ RI ZRPHQ LQ LQIRUPDO PDUNHWV ZRPHQ
WUDGHUV DQG ZRPHQ V PDUNHWLQJ QHWZRUNV LQ 0ZDQJD DQG
0RVKL 'LVWULFWV LQ 7DQ]DQLD 0DVWHU V 7KHVLV +HOVLQNL )LQODQG
8QLYHUVLW\ RI +HOVLQNL )DFXOW\ RI $JULFXOWXUH DQG )RUHVWU\
0F(OUR\ 0DUMRULH % 7KH -RLQW 'HWHUPLQDWLRQ RI
+RXVHKROG 0HPEHUVKLS DQG 0DUNHW :RUN 7KH &DVH RI
<RXQJ 0HQ -RXUQDO RI /DERXU (FRQRPLFV
0F(OUR\ 0DUMRULH % 7KH (PSLULFDO &RQWHQW RI 1DVK %DUJDLQLQJ
+RXVHKROG %HKDYLRU 7KH -RXUQDO RI +XPDQ 5HVRXUFHV
 3KLSSV 6KHOOH\ $ DQG 3HWHU 6 %XUWRQ 6RFLDO ,QVWLWXWLRQDO
9DULDEOHV DQG %HKDYLRU :LWKLQ +RXVHKROGV $Q (PSLULFDO 7HVW
8VLQJ 7KH /X[HPERXUJ ,QFRPH 6WXG\ )HPLQLVW (FRQRPLFV
5RVHQ]ZHLJ 0DUN 5 3URJUDP LQWHUYHQWLRQV ,QWUDKRXVHKROG
'LVWULEXWLRQ DQG WKH :HOIDUH RI ,QGLYLGXDOV 0RGHOOLQJ
+RXVHKROG %HKDYLRU :RUOG 'HYHORSPHQW
5XXVNDQHQ 2OOL 3HNND .RWLWDORXGHQ WXRWDQWRWHRULD .DWVDXV
NLUMDOOLVXXWHHQ 7KH WKHRU\ RI KRXVHKROG SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ
5HYLHZ RI OLWHUDWXUH :RUNLQJ 3DSHUV .HVNXVWHOXPXLVWLRLWD
7LODVWRNHVNXV +HOVLQNL )LQODQG
5XXVNDQHQ 2OOL 3HNND 7HVWLQJ 'LIIHUHQW +\SRWKHVHV RI +RXVHKROG
'HFLVLRQ 0DNLQJ ZLWK WKH )LQQLVK +RXVHKROG ([SHQGLWXUH 6XUYH\
+HOVLQNL )LQODQG +HOVLQNL 6FKRRO RI (FRQRPLFV DQG %XVLQHVV
$GPLQLVWUDWLRQ 'HSDUWPHQW RI (FRQRPLFV /LFHQWLDWH 7KHVLV
6DPXHOVRQ 3DXO (FRQRPLFV 1HZ <RUN 0F*UDZ +LOO
6FKXOW] 3DXO 7 7HVWLQJ WKH 1HRFODVVLFDO 0RGHO RI )DPLO\
/DERXU 6XSSO\ DQG )HUWLOLW\ 7KH -RXUQDO RI +XPDQ 5HVRXUFHV
6FKXOW] 7KHRGRUH HG (FRQRPLFV RI WKH )DPLO\ 0DUULDJH
&KLOGUHQ DQG +XPDQ &DSLWDO 7KH 1DWLRQDO %XUHDX RI
(FRQRPLF 5HVHDUFK &KLFDJR 7KH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI &KLFDJR 3UHVV
6HJXLQR 6WHSKDQLH 7KRPDV 6WHYHQV DQG 0DUN / /XW] *HQGHU
DQG &RRSHUDWLYH %HKDYLRU (FRQRPLF 0DQ 5LGHV $ORQH )HPLQLVW (FRQRPLFV

6HL] -DQHW 7KH %DUJDLQLQJ $SSURDFK DQG )HPLQLVW

0HWKRGRORJ\ 5HYLHZ RI 5DGLFDO 3ROLWLFDO (FRQRPLFV
6HQ $PDUW\D . :RPHQ WHFKQRORJ\ DQG VH[XDO
GLYLVLRQV 7UDGH DQG 'HYHORSPHQW 81 81&7$' 5HYLHZ
1R
6HQ $PDUW\D . *HQGHU DQG &RRSHUDWLYH &RQIOLFW :RUNLQJ
3DSHUV -XO\ +HOVLQNL :,'(5 :RUOG ,QVWLWXWH IRU 'HYHORSPHQW
(FRQRPLFV 5HVHDUFK RI WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 8QLYHUVLW\
6LQJK ,QGHUMLW DQG /\Q 6TXLUH DQG -RKQ 6WUDXVV HGV $JULFXOWXUDO
+RXVHKROG 0RGHOV ([WHQVLRQV $SSOLFDWLRQV DQG 3ROLF\ $ :RUOG %DQN
3XEOLFDWLRQ %DOWLPRUH 7KH -RKQ +RSNLQV 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV
6WUDXVV -RKQ DQG 'XQFDQ 7KRPDV +XPDQ 5HVRXUFHV
(PSLULFDO 0RGHOOLQJ RI +RXVHKROG DQG )DPLO\ 'HFLVLRQV ,Q
+DQGERRN RI 'HYHORSPHQW (FRQRPLFV 9ROXPH ,,, HGLWHG E\ -
%HKUPDQ DQG 7 1 6ULQLYDVDQ (OVHYLHU 6FLHQFH % 9
7KRPDV 'XQFDQ ,QWUD +RXVHKROG 5HVRXUFH $OORFDWLRQ
$Q ,QIHUHQWLDO $SSURDFK 7KH -RXUQDO RI +XPDQ 5HVRXUFHV
7KRPDV 'XQFDQ 7KH 'LVWULEXWLRQ RI ,QFRPH DQG ([SHQGLWXUH ZLWKLQ
WKH +RXVHKROG $QQDOHV G eFRQRPLH HW GH 6WDWLVWLTXH
7KRUQHU ' % .HUEOD\ DQG 5 ( ) 6PLWK $ 9 &KD\DQRY RQ WKH WKHRU\
RI SHDVDQW HFRQRP\ +RPHZRRG ,OOLQRLV 5LFKDUG ' ,UYLQ ,QF
8QLWHG 1DWLRQV &RPSHQGLXP RI 6WDWLVWLFV DQG
,QGLFDWRUV RI WKH 6LWXDWLRQ RI :RPHQ 1HZ <RUN
9DULDQ +DO 5 ,QWHUPHGLDWH 0LFURHFRQRPLFV $
0RGHUQ $SSURDFK 1HZ <RUN 1RUWRQ
:LOOLDPV ) DQG 1 0DUTXHV ,QWHUIDPLO\ (FRQRPLF ([FKDQJH DQG 4XDOLW\
RI /LIH $ &URVV &XOWXUDO &RPSDULVRQ 6WUHQJWK RI WKH )DPLOLHV LQ
WKH (DUO\ V 7KLUG ,QWHUQDWLRQDO +RXVHKROG 5HVRXUFH
0DQDJHPHQW 6\PSRVLXP $XJXVW +HOVLQNL 5HVHDUFK 5HSRUWV
:RROOH\ )UDQFHV *HWWLQJ WKH %HWWHU RI %HFNHU )
HPLQLVW (FRQRPLFV