“A Study on Stock and Investment Decision using Fundamental and

Technical Analysis”
Mr. Shamantha Kumar B U [1]
Mrs. Pavithra Gowtham N S [2],
1
Assistant Professor, Department of MBA, GSSS Institute of Engineering and Technology for Women –
Mysuru
2
Assistant Professor, Department of MBA, GSSS Institute of Engineering and Technology for Women -
Mysuru
Abstract:
Investment has become a household word and is very popular with the people from all of life. It is
because of increase in working population, higher family incomes & savings, availability of large
and attractive investment alternatives etc. Prediction of stock market is generally based on two
important analyses, the fundamental and technical. The former approach considers the study of
selected stocks with the help of tools of these analyses and also to know the investment decision
based on the particular areas.
Fundamental analysis is a method of analyzing and evaluating equities, stocks or other investment
avenues, it is a predict to conduct a fundamental analysis before planning any investment, Technical
analysis refers to the method of analyzing a security based on its price movement and market trends.
it follows the down theory which states that the price of the stock already reflects everything that has
and can affect the company. its analysis trends, volume, trend lines, charts, line charts.
When investors calculated price of the stock varies from the actual price of the stock and earn
profit. While technical analysis is more associated with traders, investors usually more go to
fundamental analysis.
Fundamental analysis the main objectives is to study two different sectors using the tools of
fundamental and technical and also to usage of these tools in different ways by the investors in the
market. The study based on secondary data it us descriptive in nature.
Key words: Investment, Savings, Stock Market, Fundamental analysis, Technical analysis.

1. Introduction:
The Indian economy has seen tremendous change through a phase of economic evolution since
1991.The Indian capital market has positive impact due to the policy of Economic liberalization. The
Indian stock market consists of 23 stock exchanges including two exchanges set up in the reform’s
era i.e., National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) and Over the Counter Exchange of India (OTCEI).
Securities under stock market are analyzed though Fundamental and technical analysis. Fundamental
analysis is done in order to know the fundamental value of the firm, which otherwise is not reflected
in their market price. Investors widely choose the stocks into value and growth. The technical
analysis (TA) approach to capital market evaluation has received little attention and reception as
compared to fundamental analysis (FA). Recently the popularity of technical school of thought is
increasing. A brief review of literature is given below for studies abroad and studies for the Indian
market.

Technical Analysis can be defined as an art and science of forecasting future prices based on an
examination of the past price movements. Technical analysis is not astrology for predicting prices.
Technical analysis is based on analyzing current demand-supply of commodities, stocks, indices,
futures or any tradable instrument. Technical analysis involves putting stock information like prices,
volumes and open interest on a chart and applying various patterns and indicators to it in order to
assess the future price movements. The time frame in which technical analysis is applied may range
from intraday (5-minute, 10-minutes, 15-minutes, 30-minutes or hourly), daily, weekly or monthly
price data to many years.

Stock selection process in the equity market is a tedious task because of the wide variety of stocks
available for purchase and the numerous external factors influencing the decision-making process.
Fundamental analysis and technical analysis are the two major tools of decision making used to make
stock market decisions. The external factors influencing the stock selection have been studied by various
researchers and some literature is mentioned below

The study on technical analysis of selected companies based on Stratified sampling technique is
significant as it helps in understanding the intrinsic value of shares and to know whether the shares
are undervalued or overvalued or correctly priced. Further it helps in understanding the price
Behaviour of the shares, the signals given by them and the major turning points of the market price.
The concept of analysis comes into picture when decision has to be made on choosing a particular
company’s shares for investment. Technical analysis is a security analysis technique that claims the
ability to forecast the future direction of prices through the study of past market data primarily price
and volume.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW
Wiwik utami (2019); Fundamental Versus Technical Analysis of Investment: Case Study of
Investors Decision in Indonesia Stock Exchange; Vol. 22; No. S8, Pp 1-18; According to the
analysis done can be seen that the method of analysis of investment chosen by the investor in
Indonesia is a method of technical analysis. The factors that significantly affect the selection of
investment analysis methods is the experience of the investor and the investor time span. Results
from the other four factors tested in this study did not significantly influence the selection of
investment analysis method, namely the level of investor education, trading frequency, accessibility
of information, and investor perceptions.

Dr. Madhavi Dhole (2017); Review paper on Fundamental and Technical Analysis; Vol-7, Is.
No-8, Pp-1-2, The important feature of capital market instruments forces investors to depend
strongly on fundamental factors in their investment decisions. Fundamental research focuses on
finding and analyzing the factors that influence security prices whereas technical analysis is
exclusively alarmed with analyzing market behavior.
Prof. Nada Petrusheva Ph.D, (2016); Comparative Analysis between the Fundamental and Technical
Analysis of Stocks; Vol-4; Iss-2; Pp 26-32; We have seen that the fundamental and technical analysis are
different in many aspects, starting from the assumptions on which they are based, to the methods used and the
function they have. These differences show that the fundamental and technical analysis are essentially different
strategies for making investment decisions. However, the observed differences don ‘t necessarily indicates that
fundamental and technical analysis lead to different investment decisions. In fact, both analyses have their
advantages and disadvantages that can be combined to give optimum results.

Mishra, (2016) stated the extent to which trading profitability using technical analysis indicators
explains the ‗risk premium‗ or ‗risk compensation‗ for investing in equity markets as against assets
that are relatively risk-free using multiple regression analysis. It is advised that traders, retail
investors and fund managers, while evaluating portfolios, can rely on technical indicators- based
trading strategies other than fundamental analysis.

Veliota Drakopoulou; (2015); A Review of Fundamental and Technical Stock Analysis

Techniques; Vol-5, Iss.-1, Pp 23-32; The fundamental analysis approach assumes that each security
has an intrinsic value that can be decided on the basis of such information like accounting earnings,
dividends, growth factors, and debt/equity ratios etc. Technical expert determines the intrinsic value
on the basis of these fundamentals and compares this value with the current market price to
determine if the security is underpriced or overpriced.

Zaheeruddin, M. and Sivakumar, P. (2012), “A Study on Equity Script Valuation with Special
Reference to Selected Companies of Software Industry,” International Journal of Business and
Management Tomorrow,” Vol. 2, No. 12, pp. 1- 7; using by Mean and Standard deviation the main
objectives on Risk and return, Fundamental factors and this study concluded on In recession period
the IT firm has faced a situation of negative returns and in recovery period there is scenario of
positive returns. Recession and political anarchy present in the economy affects the market value of
equity stocks of software industry in India.

Uwuigbe, U., Olusegun, O., and Godswil, A. (2012), “An Assessment of the Determinants of
Share Price in Nigeria: A Study of Selected Listed Firms, Acta Universitatis Danubius
(AUDOE), Vol. 8, No. 6, pp. 78-88; impact on market price while DEQ has negative significant
effect on equity share prices. Financial performance, policy and information dissemination are the
factors that are mostly used by small and infrequent investors followed by governance and ethical
practice of the company.

Preeti (2010) examines whether fundamental analysis involving two types of approaches like
traditional and growth. Fundamentally powerful firms earn excess mean returns in comparison to
fundamentally weak firms. It helps in differentiating between the overvalued firms and firms with
growth potential.
Aga, M. and Kocaman, B. (2006), “An Empirical Investigation of the Relationship between
Inflation, P/E Ratios and Stock Price Behaviors Using a New Series Called Index-20 for
Istanbul Stock Exchange”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Issue. 6,
pp. 133-165. In this study In every stock, price-earning appears to be a significant explanatory variable
for the stock returns but the coefficients both for IPI and CPI are not significant.

Wu, W. and Xu, J. (2006), “Fundamental Analysis of Stock Price by Artificial Neural Networks
Model Based on Rough Set Theory”, World Journal of Modelling and Simulation, Vol. 2, No. 1,
pp. 36-44; by using Rough set theory and Neural networks approach; and study concluded by
Fundamental analysis could be powerful to predict stock price, especially by using the neural
networks approach and rough set theory.
3. Objectives:
1) To study about the relationship between share price movement and return.
2) To evaluate the performance of selected company shares.

4. Research Methodology:
The study aims at analyzing the price movements of selected company’s scrip. As the study describes
the existing facts and figures given in the financial statement and the price movements of the selected
companies, the research design followed is descriptive and analytical in nature.
4.1 Research Design
The study aims at analyzing the price movements of selected company’s scrip. As the study describes
the existing facts and figures given in the financial statement and the price movements of the selected
companies, the research design followed is descriptive and analytical in nature.
4.2 Data Collection Method
In this study, the data is collected through secondary data.
Secondary Data
Secondary Data the weekly share price movements of the selected companies in NSE
were absorbed for the 3 years i.e., FEB-2017 to 03-MAR-2020. The closing prices of share
prices were taken and the future price movement was analyzed using various tools. Data were
collected from trading of equity market in NSE, various books, journals, magazines and
websites.
5. Data Analysis:
Standard
Particulars Returns Beta
Deviation
Axis Bluechip Fund 1.38 0.89 12.79
HDFC Top 100 Fund 1.02 1.08 14.27
Nippon India Large Cap 1.11 1.06 14.05
HDFC Mid Cap 0.66 0.93 16.08
Franklin India Prima Fund 0.79 0.77 13.37
DSP Midcap Fund Growth 0.87 0.84 14.9
SBI Small Cap 1.21 0.89 18.91
Nippon India Small Cap 0.85 0.92 18.52
ICICI Pru Small Cap 0.6 0.87 18.28

1. Average Returns: from the table above, it reveals that the Arithmetical mean of Axis
Bluechip Fund yields high average returns (1.38) relative to other such as HDFC Top 100
Fund (1.02), Nippon India Large Cap Fund (1.11), HDFC Mid Cap Fund (0.66), Franklin
India Prima Fund (0.79), DSP Midcap Fund Growth (0.87), SBI Small Cap Fund (1.21),
Nippon India Small Cap Fund (0.85), and ICICI Pru Small Cap Fund (0.6) respectively.
2. BETA: According to the Beta estimate, HDFC Top 100 Fund (1.08) has a high risk
compared to, Axis Bluechip Fund (0.89), Nippon India Large Cap Fund (1.06), HDFC Mid
Cap Fund (0.93), Franklin India Prima Fund (0.77), DSP Midcap Fund Growth (0.84), SBI
Small Cap Fund (0.89), Nippon India Small Cap Fund (0.92), and ICICI Pru Small Cap Fund
(0.87).
3. Standard deviation: The higher the standard deviation the greater the risk is.
According to the standard deviation estimate, Axis Bluechip Fund (12.79) has a low risk
compared to, HDFC Top 100 Fund (14.27), Nippon India Large Cap Fund (14.05), HDFC
Mid Cap Fund (16.08), Franklin India Prima Fund (13.37), DSP Midcap Fund Growth (14.9),
SBI Small Cap Fund (18.91), Nippon India Small Cap Fund (18.52), and ICICI Pru Small
Cap Fund (18.28).
Table 5.1 showing correlation between the large cap fund and Return
Correlations
AXIS Nippon HDFC
AXIS Pearson Correlation 1 .995** .982**
Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .003
N 5 5 5
Nippon Pearson Correlation .995 ** 1 .977 **

Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .004

N 5 5 5
HDFC Pearson Correlation .982** .977** 1
Sig. (2-tailed) .003 .004
N 5 5 5
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Statistical views: Table 5.1. This is intended to define the relationship between the large funds on
return. This table studies the relationship of human, independent factors to the dependent factor.
From the table above it is found that the coefficient of correlation between large caps fund on
return. In large cap fund shows that Axis large cap fund, Nippon India large cap fund and HDFC
top 100 funds had positive correlation among them.
 Table 5.2 showing correlation between the large cap fund and Risk
Correlations
AXIS Nippon HDFC
AXIS Pearson Correlation 1 .748 .295
Sig. (2-tailed) .146 .631
N 5 5 5
Nippon Pearson Correlation .748 1 .786
Sig. (2-tailed) .146 .115
N 5 5 5
HDFC Pearson Correlation .295 .786 1
Sig. (2-tailed) .631 .115
N 5 5 5

Statistical views: Table 5.2. This is intended to define the relationship between the large funds on
risk. This table studies the relationship of human, independent factors to the dependent factor.
From the table above it is found that the coefficient of correlation between large caps fund on
risk. In large cap fund shows that Axis large cap fund, Nippon India large cap fund and HDFC
top 100 fund had positive correlation among them.
Table 5.3 showing correlation between the small cap fund and Risk
Correlations
SBI Nippon ICICI
SBI Pearson Correlation 1 .937* .967**
Sig. (2-tailed) .019 .007
N 5 5 5
Nippon Pearson Correlation .937* 1 .979 **

Sig. (2-tailed) .019 .004

N 5 5 5
ICICI Pearson Correlation .967** .979** 1
Sig. (2-tailed) .007 .004
N 5 5 5
*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Statistical views: Table 5.3. This is intended to define the relationship between the small cap
funds on risk. This table studies the relationship of human, independent factors to the dependent
factor.
From the table above it is found that the coefficient of correlation between small cap funds on
risk. In Small cap fund shows that SBI small cap fund, Nippon India small cap fund and ICICI
prudential small cap fund had positive correlation among them.
 Table 5.4 showing correlation between the small cap fund on return
Correlations
SBI Nippon ICICI
SBI Pearson Correlation 1 .989** .996**
Sig. (2-tailed) .001 .000
N 5 5 5
Nippon Pearson Correlation .989 ** 1 .993 **

Sig. (2-tailed) .001 .001

N 5 5 5
ICICI Pearson Correlation .996** .993** 1
Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .001
N 5 5 5
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
Statistical views: Table 5.4. This is intended to define the relationship between the small cap
funds on return. This table studies the relationship of human, independent factors to the
dependent factor.
From the table above it is found that the coefficient of correlation between small cap funds on
return. In Small cap fund shows that SBI small cap fund, Nippon India small cap fund and ICICI
prudential small cap fund had positive correlation among them.
Table 5.5 showing correlation between the mid cap fund on risk
Correlations
DSP Franklin HDFC
DSP Pearson Correlation 1 .879* .951*
Sig. (2-tailed) .050 .013
N 5 5 5
Franklin Pearson Correlation .879* 1 .972**
Sig. (2-tailed) .050 .005
N 5 5 5
HDFC Pearson Correlation .951* .972** 1
Sig. (2-tailed) .013 .005
N 5 5 5
*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
Statistical views: Table 5.5. This is intended to define the relationship between the mid cap fund on
risk. This table studies the relationship of human, independent factors to the dependent factor.
From the table above it is found that the coefficient of correlation between mid-cap fund on risk. In
mid cap fund shows that DSP Mid cap fund, franklin India prima mid cap fund and HDFC mid cap
fund had positive correlation among them.
 Table 5.6 showing correlation between the mid cap fund on return
Correlations
DSP Franklin HDFC
DSP Pearson Correlation 1 .985** .998**
Sig. (2-tailed) .002 .000
N 5 5 5
Franklin Pearson Correlation .985 ** 1 .991 **

Sig. (2-tailed) .002 .001

N 5 5 5
HDFC Pearson Correlation .998** .991** 1
Sig. (2-tailed) .000 .001
N 5 5 5
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
Statistical views: Table 5.5. This is intended to define the relationship between the mid cap fund on
return. This table studies the relationship of human, independent factors to the dependent factor.
From the table above it is found that the coefficient of correlation between mid-cap fund on return. In
mid cap fund shows that DSP Mid cap fund, franklin India prima mid cap fund and HDFC mid cap
fund had positive correlation among them.
Regression
Table 5.6 Linear regression showing the impact of NSE on midcap return
Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate
1 1.000a .999 .996 .00298
a. Predictors: (Constant), HDFC, Franklin, DSP
Regression analysis was conducted using SPSS 15, and the result is tabled. The adjusted
R2 is high (near to 1), suggesting that with the aid of the Midcap Return, Nifty can be estimated
using a 99.6 per cent linear regression model to evaluate the dependent variable.

Table 5.7 Linear regression showing the impact of NSE on midcap risk
Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the
Estimate
1 1.000a 1.000 .998 22273.21834
a. Predictors: (Constant), HDFC, DSP, Franklin
Regression analysis was conducted using SPSS 15, and the result is tabled. The adjusted
R2 is high (near to 1), suggesting that with the aid of the Midcap Risk, Nifty can be estimated
using a 99.8 per cent linear regression model to evaluate the dependent variable.
 Table 5.8 Linear regression showing the impact of NSE on Large fund risk
Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate
1 .994a .989 .955 114726.75520
a. Predictors: (Constant), HDFc, AXIS, Nippon
The adjusted R2 is high (near to 1), suggesting that with the aid of the large cap Risk,
Nifty can be estimated using a 95.5 per cent linear regression model to evaluate the dependent
variable.

Table 5.9 Linear regression showing the impact of NSE on Large fund return
Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate
1 1.000a 1.000 1.000 .00001
a. Predictors: (Constant), HDFC, Nippon, AXIS
The adjusted R2 is high (near to 1), suggesting that with the aid of the large cap Return,
Nifty can be estimated using a 100 per cent linear regression model to evaluate the dependent
variable.

Table 5.10 Linear regression showing the impact of NSE on small cap fund risk

Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate
1 .999a .999 .996 36054.60126
a. Predictors: (Constant), ICICI, SBI, Nippon
The adjusted R2 is high (near to 1), suggesting that with the aid of the small cap risk,
Nifty can be estimated using a 99.9 per cent linear regression model to evaluate the dependent
variable.

Table 5.11 Linear regression showing the impact of NSE on small cap fund return

Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate
1 1.000 a .999 .997 .00279
a. Predictors: (Constant), ICICI, Nippon, SBI
The adjusted R2 is high (near to 1), suggesting that with the aid of the small cap return,
Nifty can be estimated using a 99.9 per cent linear regression model to evaluate the dependent
variable.
6. Findings:
• It is found that the coefficient of correlation between large caps fund on return. In large cap
fund shows that Axis large cap fund, Nippon India large cap fund and HDFC top 100 funds
had positive correlation among them.
• It is found that the coefficient of correlation between large caps fund on return. In large cap
fund shows that Axis large cap fund, Nippon India large cap fund and HDFC top 100 funds
had positive correlation among them.

• The adjusted R2 is high (near to 1), suggesting that with the aid of the large cap Return,
Nifty can be estimated using a 100 per cent linear regression model to evaluate the
dependent variable. The coefficient table which indicates that the Axis large cap fund,
HDFC top 100 fund and Nippon India large cap fund in regression models to determine the
NSE index are significant for the regression model at its significance value less than 0.05
and that these sectors should be includes from our regression analysis as shown above.
• The adjusted R2 is high (near to 1), suggesting that with the aid of the small cap risk, Nifty
can be estimated using a 99.9 per cent linear regression model to evaluate the dependent
variable. The coefficient table which indicates that the SBI small cap fund, Nippon India
small cap fund and ICICI prudential small cap fund in regression models to determine the
NSE index are not significant for the regression model at its significance value more than
0.05 and that these sectors should be excludes from our regression analysis as shown
above.
• The adjusted R2 is high (near to 1), suggesting that with the aid of the small cap return,
Nifty can be estimated using a 99.9 per cent linear regression model to evaluate the
dependent variable. The coefficient table which indicates that the SBI small cap fund,
Nippon India small cap fund and ICICI prudential small cap fund in regression models to
determine the NSE index are not significant for the regression model at its significance
value more than 0.05 and that these sectors should be excludes from our regression
analysis as shown above.

7. Suggestions:
• Don't be greedy: Invest smartly, with some professional help and some study on your own.
• Avoid 'hot tips': Use your own judgement.
• Avoid trading/timing the market: 'timing' leads to huge monetary losses and mental tension.
• Avoid actions based on sentiments: Don't be emotionally attached to stocks
• Don't panic if the market drops: Be patient and hold on to the scrip until some semblance of
sanity prevails in the market. Consult a professional and then act accordingly.
• Stay invested, possibly continue to invest more: It is natural to book profits with the markets
at higher levels. This should be done, but we suggest people should also stay invested in the
equity markets. Indian stocks do not appear over stretched at present, considering that average
price/earnings ratios -- a common measure of value – were around 15-16 times.
• Diversify: diversify a bit, looking at stocks, mutual funds, commodities and gold (for a
longer-term). If equities pick up some of these stocks again.
• Sell when value is realized: Some stocks may rise sooner than you may have anticipated. In a
frenzied bull run, investors may see their target prices being met in a matter of days. Here
time should not be of any consequence.

8. Conclusion
Fundamental & Technical analysis is a technique which gives an idea about future share
prices of selected companies in which we invest. On the basis of the knowledge of technical
analysis one can predict the perfect investment decision of the stock market. By using the
technical indicators, the future market of securities would be known in which to invest. The
more accurate prediction of stock prices of IIFL company has investor to carry out fundamental
analysis of stock prices, they can predict of future trend of stock prices. On the basis of prediction
of IIFL different pattern of stock prices of these companies give an idea of future trend of these
companies could be analyzed with the right technical analysis tools, technical analysis of utmost
importance to predict trend of short- and medium-term price movement and help the investors to
select the right plan and decisions to invest in the remunerative stocks. The technician also
required a fundamental knowledge, which would clear an idea about the investment decision.
Both Technical and Fundamental analysis helps in investment decision in the stock market and
predict the future trend of the selected companies in which we have invested. Both the analysis
gives guidance to the investors.
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