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A. What Proportion of Aircrafts Can Be Expected To Travel Between

The document discusses confidence intervals for means from normally distributed populations based on sample data from several scenarios. In the first scenario, the document constructs a 95% confidence interval for the mean life of compact fluorescent light bulbs based on a sample mean of 7,500 hours, sample size of 64, and population standard deviation of 1,000 hours. It determines that the manufacturer cannot claim the mean life is 8,000 hours since it falls outside the confidence interval. In the second scenario, it constructs a 95% confidence interval for the mean amount spent on Amazon.com by Prime members based on a sample mean of $1,500, sample size of 100, and population standard deviation of $200. It interprets

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131 views

A. What Proportion of Aircrafts Can Be Expected To Travel Between

The document discusses confidence intervals for means from normally distributed populations based on sample data from several scenarios. In the first scenario, the document constructs a 95% confidence interval for the mean life of compact fluorescent light bulbs based on a sample mean of 7,500 hours, sample size of 64, and population standard deviation of 1,000 hours. It determines that the manufacturer cannot claim the mean life is 8,000 hours since it falls outside the confidence interval. In the second scenario, it constructs a 95% confidence interval for the mean amount spent on Amazon.com by Prime members based on a sample mean of $1,500, sample size of 100, and population standard deviation of $200. It interprets

Uploaded by

maen dn
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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6.

8 FlyHigh Airlines determined that the distance


traveled per aircraft per year is normally distributed,
with a mean of 60 thousand miles and a standard deviation of
10 thousand miles.
a. What proportion of aircrafts can be expected to travel between
44 and 54 thousand miles in a year?

P(a < Z < b) => P( F(54−60 ) 10

44−60 ) 10

- F(−6𝑏−µ ) 𝜎< Z < P(𝑏−µ ) 𝜎=> F(- F(𝑎−µ ) 𝜎−16

= F( 10 ) - F( 10 ) = F(-0.6) – F(-1.6)

Apply F(-0.6) and F(-1.6) in Z table

F(-0.6) = 0.27425 and F(-1.6) = 0.0548, therefore 0.27425 - 0.0548 = 0.21945

b. What percentage of aircrafts can be expected to travel either


less than 25 or more than 70 thousand miles in a year?

P(a < X < b) => P(X < a) + P(X > b) = P(X < 25) + P(X > 70) => P(𝑧 < P(𝑧 70−60 ) 10

= P(𝑧 𝑏−µ ) 𝜎+ P(𝑧 > 10) = P(𝑧 < −3.5) + P(𝑧 > 1)

Apply P(-3.5) and P(1) in Z table

P(-3.5) = 0.0002 and P(1) = 0.84134

P(1) > 0.84134 = 1 - 0.84134 = 0.15866. Back to formula P(X < 25) + P(X > 70) = P(𝑧 < −3.5) + P(𝑧 > 1) =
P(-3.5) + (1-P(1)) = 0.0002 + (1 0.84134) = 0.0002 + 0.15866 = 0.15889 or 15.889%

c. How many miles will be traveled by at least 70 percent of the


aircrafts?

P(X > Z) = 0.3, apply to Z-table, the closest value of 0.3000 is -0.52 therefore Z value is -0.52

Next, find X by using X = 60 + (-0.52)*10 = 60 + (-5.2) = 54.8 Miles will be traveled by at least 70
percent of the aircrafts is 54.8 in thousand miles.

d. What are your answers to (a) through (c) if the standard deviation
is 12 thousand miles?
P(a < Z < b) => P( F(54−60 ) 12 (44−60 ) 12- F(−6 𝑎−µ ) 𝜎 𝑏−µ ) 𝜎< Z < P(𝑏−µ ) 𝜎=> F(- F(𝑎−µ ) 𝜎−16

= F( 12 ) - F( 12 ) = F(-0.5) – F(-1.33)

Apply F(-0.5) and F(-1.33) in Z table

The result is F(-0.5) = 0.30854 and F(-1.6) = 0.09176, therefore 0.30854 - 0.09176 = 0.21408
6.13 Many manufacturing problems involve the matching of machine
parts, such as shafts that fit into a valve hole. A particular
design requires a shaft with a diameter of 22.000 mm, but shafts
with diameters between 21.990 mm and 22.010 mm are acceptable.
Suppose that the manufacturing process yields shafts with
diameters normally distributed, with a mean of 22.002 mm and a
standard deviation of 0.005 mm. For this process, what is
a. the proportion of shafts with a diameter between 21.99 mm and
22.00 mm?
z(21.99) = (21.99-22.002)/0.005 = -2.4

z(22.00) = (22.00-22.002)/0.005 = -0.4

prob(-2.4 < z < -0.4) from the table= 0.3364

b. the probability that a shaft is acceptable?


z(22.01) = (22.01-22.002)/0.005 = 1.6

prob(-2.4 < z < 1.6) from the table= 0.937

c. the diameter that will be exceeded by only two percent of the


shafts?
z(top 2%) from the table is: 2.054

22.002+2.054*0.005= 22.012 mm

d. What would be your answers in (a) through (c) if the standard


deviation of the shaft diameters were 0.004 mm?
(a)The proportion of shafts with a diameter between 21.90 mm and 22.00 mm= P (21.9<X<22)

Module 4 = P(21.9−22.0020.004<X−22.0020.004<22−22.0020.004)= P (-25.5<Z<-0.5)= P (Z<-0.5) – P


(Z≤-25.5)= 0.3085 – 0.0000= 0.3085

(b)The probability that a shaft is acceptable= P (21.9<X<22.01) =


P(21.9−22.0020.004<X−22.0020.004<22.01−22.0020.004)= P (-25.5<Z<2)= P (Z<2) – P (Z≤-25.5)=
0.9772 – 0.0000= 0.9772

(c)The diameter that will be exceeded by only 2% of the shafts is obtained asfollows:Here we need
to find x in P(X>x) = 0.02 or in P(X≤x) = 0.98For this, we find z in P(Z≤z) = 0.98, where z = (x-
22.002)/0.004i.e. we need z in ∫−∞ze−z22√2πdz= 0.98Using the ‘Normsinv(0.98)’ function in excel,
we get z = 2.0538, i.e. x = 22.002+0.004*(2.0538) = 22.0102So the diameter that will be exceeded by
only 2% of the shafts is22.0102 mm.

7.24 An industrial sewing machine uses ball bearings that are


targeted to have a diameter of 0.75 inch. The lower and upper
specification limits under which the ball bearing can operate are
0.74 inch (lower) and 0.76 inch (upper). Past experience has indicated
that the actual diameter of the ball bearings is approximately
normally distributed, with a mean of 0.753 inch and a standard
deviation of 0.004 inch. If you select a random sample of 25 ball
bearings, what is the probability that the sample mean is
a. between the target and the population mean of 0.753?
b. between the lower specification limit and the target?
c. greater than the upper specification limit?
d. less than the lower specification limit?
e. The probability is 93% that the sample mean diameter will be
greater than what value?
a. This probability is the p-value of Z when X = 0.753 subtracted by the p-value of Z when X = 0.75.

X = 0.753:

 has a p-value of 0.5

X = 0.75:

 has a p-value of 0.2266

0.5 - 0.2266 = 0.2734

0.2734 = 27.34% probability that a ball bearing is between the target and the actual mean.

b. This probability is the p-value of Z when X = 0.75 subtracted by the p-value of Z when X = 0.74,


hence:

X = 0.75:

 has a p-value of 0.2266

X = 0.74:

 has a p-value of 0.0006.

0.2266 - 0.0006 = 0.226


0.226 = 22.6% probability that a ball bearing is between the lower specification limit and the target.

c. This probability is 1 subtracted by the p-value of Z when X = 0.76, hence:

 has a p-value of 0.9599.

1 - 0.9599 = 0.0401

0.0401 = 4.01% probability that a ball bearing is above the upper specification limit.

d. This probability is the p-value of Z when X = 0.74, hence:

 has a p-value of 0.0006.

0.0006 = 0.06% probability that a ball bearing is below the lower specification limit.

8.10 The operations manager at a compact fluorescent


light bulb (CFL) factory needs to estimate the
mean life of a large shipment of CFLs. The manufacturer’s specifications
are that the standard deviation is 1,000 hours. A random
sample of 64 CFLs indicated a sample mean life of 7,500 hours.
a. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for the population
mean life of compact fluorescent light bulbs in this
shipment.

b. Do you think that the manufacturer has the right to state


that the compact fluorescent light bulbs have a mean life of
8,000 hours? Explain.
No, since the confidence interval
does not include 8,000 hours the
manufacturer
cannot support a claim that the bulbs
have a mean of 8,000 hours.

No, since the confidence interval


does not include 8,000 hours the
manufacturer
cannot support a claim that the bulbs
have a mean of 8,000 hours.

No, since the confidence interval


does not include 8,000 hours the
manufacturer
cannot support a claim that the bulbs
have a mean of 8,000 hours.
No, since the confidence interval does not include 8000 hours the manufacturer cannot
support a claim that the bulbs have a mean of 8000 hours
c. Must you assume that the population compact fluorescent light
bulb life is normally distributed? Explain.

d. Suppose that the standard deviation changes to 800 hours.


What are your answers in (a) and (b)?
The confidence interval is narrower, based on a population standard deviation of 800
hours rather than the original standard deviation of 1000 hours.

7304<= μ <= 7696. No, since the confidence interval does not include 8000 the manufaturer cannot
support a claim that the bulbs have a mean life of 8000 hours

The confidence interval is narrower,


based on a population standard
deviation of 800
hours rather than the original
standard deviation of 1,000 hours.

7.304 ≤ µ ≤ 7,696. No, since the


confidence interval does not
include 8,000 the
manufacturer cannot support a claim
that the bulbs have a mean life of
8,000
8.15 A marketing researcher wants to estimate the mean amount
spent ($) on Amazon.com by Amazon Prime member shoppers.
Suppose a random sample of 100 Amazon Prime member shoppers
who recently made a purchase on Amazon.com yielded a
mean of $1,500 and a standard deviation of $200.
a. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for the mean
spending for all Amazon Prime member shoppers.
b. Interpret the interval constructed in (a).
Mean = 200
Stanndard deviation = 1500
Sample size 100
Confidence 1-0,95 = 0,05
Critical value = 1,96
Margin error = 39,2
Upper limit = 1500-39,2 = 1460,8
Lower limit = 1500+39,2 = 1539,2
95 confidence interval = (1460,8 ~ 1539,2)

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