The Strategy
The Strategy
The Strategy
Now that we have gone through the basic concepts and philosophy
behind the success of systematic option writing as a strategic
investment lets us take a closer look at the elements of the strategy.
The four call options that David uses to construct his position are as
follows:
1. Long one slightly In The Money (ITM) Call
2. Short one slightly Out of the Money (OTM) Call. This short call at a
slightly OTM strike is “covered” by the long call below at the slightly ITM
strike. This combination of a Short Call which is covered by a Long Call
at a lower strike is called a Bull Call Option spread. The Bull Call option
Spread on its own, will make money, as long as the market trades
above the strike price of the OTM call. Hence traders with a bullish
view on a stock will set up a Bull Call Spread on a stock using call
options.
3. The last position taken in this strategy is to short two naked calls, 10%
OTM. When a trader sells naked call options on a stock, he expects the
market to trade below the strike price of the call at expiry. The sale of
these naked calls not only negates bullish view of the Bull Call Spread
but gives the entire spread (of the 4 calls together) an overall bearish
outlook.
The most critical element of this strategy is to generate a net credit while
constructing the position. i.e. the premium received by selling the
covered slight OTM Call and the two 10% OTM naked calls must exceed
the premium paid to buy the slightly ITM call. The strategy needs to be
implanted either on expiry day ( using next month contracts, for example
if it is June expiry then the strategy will be set-up using July contracts ) or
one day prior to expiry.
Thus, the strategy can be deconstructed by thinking of it as the
combination of a Bull call Spread along with a pair of short naked call
options. The bullishness of the Bull Call Spread gets negated around the
strike price of the naked short call options i.e. as the spot price of the
stock moves beyond the strike of the naked calls, the trader starts
making losses, which increase even more as the spot moves further
away from the strike price of the naked calls.
The Zone of Maximum Profitability (ZMP) lies between the strike of the
covered call and the strike of the naked call options. Thus David’s view on
a stock price (even though David never takes an explicit view on a stock)
based David’s option writing strategy can be said to be a neutral view
with a bearish bias.
Discerning readers will have figured out by now that David’s strategy is
immune to the risk of a “Gap Down” in the markets (even if the market
gaps limit down at open David’s strategy will make a profit equal to the
initial credit) but can get into trouble on severe “Gap Up” days like the
“Limit Up” day in May 2009. Let us understand all that we have discussed
above better with a numerical example.
Example: Spot price of a stock at 101. An ITM Call of 100 Strike is bought by
paying a premium of Rs.10. An OTM Call of 102 strike, is sold and a
premium of Rs.5 is received as a credit. As discussed above the risk of
this call is covered by the long ITM Call of 100 strike. This forms the 100/102
bull spread of our position.
Now two naked calls of 110 strike are sold for Rs.3 each. The profit scenario
analysis table for this position is shown below for various scenarios of
spot price at expiry of these options (such a table needs to be created
before entering into any spread position by the trader).
Once such a table is created it is very easy to visualise what the profit of
the strategy will be at various levels of spot at expiry. The shaded region
displays the Zone of Maximum Profitability (ZMP) which is the region
between the strike price of the covered call and the strike price of the
naked calls.
Actual example
Let us see an example of implementing an actual position using Reliance
Calls on 27th June 2018. Reliance spot was at 965. To implement our
strategy we choose the Reliance 960 strike call (premium Rs.31.75),
Reliance 980 strike call (premium Rs.22) and two Reliance 1040 strike calls
(Premium Rs.6.85). All the calls are 26 July 2018 expiry contracts.
Discerning readers may raise an objection as to why we did not choose
the 1060 strike calls which fulfil the condition of being 10% OTM. The reason
is very simple, the 1060 calls were trading at a premium of Rs.4.85 and
using them to construct the spread would not lead to a net credit at the
start. On the other hand the strike of 1040, even though being only 8%
OTM, we felt was at a sufficient distance from the current spot price to
warrant using in creating the spread position.
The profitability analysis of the spread position on Reliance Calls is
highlighted in the figure below.
The total margin required for the trade set-up was Rs360k. Hence if
Reliance spot expired between 980 & 1040 in July and no adjustments
had to be made then the maximum percentage gain from this spread
position would be 6.65% in one month!
Capital requirements & risks
In an ideal world when the spot prices of stocks on which the spread is
being set-up remain well behaved requiring no adjustments to be made
and at expiry the spot trades in the Zone of Maximum Profitability, the
annualised returns from this strategy in our opinion could be as high as
50% or higher.
However in the real world stocks do not remain well behaved, they jump
around which will necessitate adjustments in many if not most cases
thereby reducing the profitability of the strategy.
In order to account for this jumping around of stocks we recommend
that traders set aside the same amount of capital as being utilised for
the initial margin. In the above example of the spread on Reliance call
options the initial margin requirement was Rs360k. We recommend that
traders set aside an additional Rs.360k as reserves for handling future
adjustment in the Reliance spread. Doing so would reduce the maximum
percentage return on the spread to a still respectable 3.3% in one month.
In other words this strategy is a capital intensive strategy suitable only
for High Networth Individuals allocating a certain portion, say 10% - 20% of
their total capital, to this particular strategy while deploying the rest of
the capital in the usual conventional fundamental trading ideas.
This strategy despite its slightly bearish tilt is a market neutral strategy
whose returns are not correlated with market direction. Hence a High
Networth Individual can add this strategy to his suite of other
fundamental or technical stock investing strategies which would result in
his achieving, a very good level of portfolio and strategy diversification.
One of the key dangers that a trader must guard against is wishful
thinking when the spot reaches near the strike price of the naked short
calls. There would definitely be a tendency to wait and watch and hope
that the spot falls back below the strike. Such wishful thinking would be
the surest way to the poorhouse for a trader who is trying to implement
this strategy on a consistent basis.
In order to avoid falling into the trap of wishful thinking we recommend,
that the trader maintain a trading plan for the adjustment process in a
trade diary the moment he sets up the spread, with the resolution to
follow his own plan ruthlessly and automatically like a machine.
The biggest pain point of this strategy is upside gaps like the one in Oct
2017 triggered by the PSU bank recapitalisation news. One way to avoid
gap risks is to avoid writing options on stocks just prior to earnings
announcements. In order to avoid sector specific gap risks, the investor
must implement this strategy simultaneously on stocks from at least 5 or
more different sectors which again makes this strategy very capital
intensive.