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CE 461 Mod 2 Trip Genration Distribution

Transportation Engineering notes: trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and trip assignment

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Eng. victor kamau Njeri
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67 views39 pages

CE 461 Mod 2 Trip Genration Distribution

Transportation Engineering notes: trip generation, trip distribution, modal split and trip assignment

Uploaded by

Eng. victor kamau Njeri
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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CE 461: URBAN

TRANSPORTATION
PLANNING II
TRIP GENERATION. MODAL SPLIT. TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT.
OUTLINE

• Demand Forecast
• Trip generation.
• Trip Distribution
• Modal split
• Traffic Assignment.
INTRODUCTION

• Planning for transportation involves the use of mathematical models,


including regression analysis, entropy-maximizing models, and critical path
analysis.
• There are many reasons why the results of these models should be
treated with caution, four of which are discussed herein
INTRODUCTION

• They are only as good as the data they manipulate.

• But many times the data is inaccurate or incomplete.

• They are based on assumptions that the mathematical


relationships between variables remain constant.
INTRODUCTION

• They can be manipulated to produce the outcome that would be


the most preferred by the actors promoting policy or a project.
• Because the predictions were rarely subjected to subsequent
evaluation, their validity is largely questioned, and the modeler is
happy to predict the future since projections rarely question the
validity of the methodology.
TRAVEL
DEMAND
FORECASTING
• Impacts of facilities or modes of travel
• Lines on existing roads
• Roads
NEED FOR TRAVEL • Light rail
DEMAND • Bus service
FORECASTING
• Geometric design
• Pavement design
• Types of decisions
• Time (when do you go?)
• Destination (where do you go?)
• Mode (how do you get there?)
TRAVELER
DECISIONS • Route choice (what route do you choose?)

• Influences
• Economic
• Social
• Collect data on travel behavior
• Observation (number of buses, cars, bikes,
etc.)
• Surveys
• Collect data on what travelers have done
PREDICTING • Collect data on their values and choices
TRAVEL (utility)
DECISIONS
• Inexact nature of prediction
• Incomplete data
• Reporting problems
PREDICTION OF FUTURE OUTCOMES
COMMON FLAWS IN FORECASTING
Divide process into 4 steps:

• Trip Generation
• Trip Distribution
PROCESS OF • Mode Split
TRAVEL DEMAND • Trip Assignment
FORECASTING
We will explore further:

• Trip generation Poisson models


• Mode choice logit models
• Trip assignment route choice models
VIENNA
AND
NAIROBI
• Assumptions:
• Trip-making is a function of land use
• Trips are made for specific purposes
• Different trip types are made at different times of
TRIP the day
GENERATION • Travelers have options available to them
• Trips are made to minimize inconvenience
• System modeling is based on Traffic Analysis Zones
and networks
• Poisson model often used
TRIP GENERATION

• The trip generation stage of the classical transport model aims at predicting
the total number of trips generated by (Oi ) and attracted to (Dj ) each
zone of the study area.
• This can be achieved in a number of ways:
• Starting with the trips of individuals or households who reside in each
zone or,
• Directly with some of the properties of the zones: population,
employment, number of cars, etc.
TRIP GENERATION

Each Group to,


1. Identify a study zone of a city
2. Derive the household characteristics of the selected zone
3. Prepare a survey process for the zone

Every group members role must be recorded


ZONES OF NAIROBI CITY
• Relates the number of trips being produced from a zone or site by time
period to the land use and demographic characteristics found at that location.
• The subject has also been viewed as a trip frequency choice problem: how
many shopping (or other purpose) trips will be carried out by this person
type during a representative week?

TRIP
GENERATION
TRIP GENERATION TERMINOLOGY

• Journey (a.k.a. trip): one-way movement from a point of origin to a point


of destination to satisfy the need or demand for activity
• Home-based (HB) Trip: Home is the origin or destination
• Non-Home-based (NHB): Neither end of the trip is the home of the
traveler
• Trip Production: Home end of a HB trip or origin end of a NHB trip
TRIP GENERATION TERMINOLOGY

• Trip Attraction: non-home end of the HB trip and the destination end of
the NHB trip
• Trip Generation: total number of trips generated by households in a zone
(HB and NHB), where the task remains to allocate NHB to various zones
• Trip chaining: multiple trips are performed in sequence as a matter of
efficiency, performing several activities
CLASSIFICATION OF TRIPS—TRIP PURPOSE

• Homebased (HB)
– Work (HBW)
– School (HBS)
– Shopping (HBSH)
– Social and recreation (HBR)
– Other (HBO)
• Non-homebased (NHB) - not classified into categories
CLASSIFICATION OF TRIPS—PERSON TYPE

• Income level
• Car ownership
• Household size
• Household structure
– group housing
– single
– family-head
– family-worker
TRIP GENERATION STUDIES

• Household based
• Zonal based
FACTORS AFFECTING TRIP GENERATION—
PERSONAL TRIPS (PRODUCTION)
• Income
• Car ownership
• Household structure
• Family size
• Value of land
• Residential density
• Accessibility
FACTORS AFFECTING TRIP GENERATION—
PERSONAL TRIPS (ATTRACTION)
• Office space
• Commercial space
• Educational space
• Number of employees
• Type of employment (e.g., government, retail, industrial)
TRIP GENERATION MODELING
GROWTH-FACTOR MODELLING

• Several techniques have been used in model trip generation.


• Most methods attempt to predict the number of trips produced (or
attracted) by household or zone as a function of (generally linear)
relations to be defined from available data.
GROWTH-FACTOR MODELLING

• It is important to be clear about the following aspects mentioned above:


1. what trips to be considered (e.g. only vehicle trips and walking trips
longer than three blocks);
2. what is the minimum age to be included in the analysis (i.e. five years or
older).
OUTPUTS OF THE • Quantity – Traffic volumes
PROCESS • Quality – Traffic Speeds
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
• Matches trip origins and destinations
estimated by the trip generation models
• Different trip distribution models are
TRIP
developed for each of the trip purposes for
DISTRIBUTION
which trip generation has been estimated
• Most common model in practice is the
"gravity model"
• Choice of where to go
• may vary with trip purpose.
• Input
TRIP • trips generated from and attracted to each
DISTRIBUTION zone
• Interzonal transportation cost

• Output – trip interchange between zones –


presented as Origin-Destination (OD) matrix
DISTRIBUTION OF
TRIPS BY TRIP PURPOSE
DISCUSS THE IMPLICATION ON TRANSPORTATION PLANNING
THE PURPOSE OF TRIP DISTRIBUTION

• to produce a trip table of


the estimated number of
trips from each TAZ to
every other TAZ within
the study area.
TYPICAL CAR AND TRUCK DISTRIBUTION BY
TIME OF THE DAY
TRIPS BY PUBLIC TRANSPORT IN THE US (1903-2017)
METHODS OF TRIP DISTRIBUTION

• Growth Factor Methods – This • Synthetic Methods – This include;


include; • Gravity model
• Uniform factor method • Tanner model
• Average factor method • Intervening opportunities model
• Fratar method • Competing opportunities model
• Furness method
GROWTH FACTORS METHODS

• Assume that in the future the trip-making pattern will remain substantially
the same as today but that the volume of trips will increase according to
the growth of the generating and attracting zones.
Advantages:
• Simpler than Synthetic Methods
• Good for small towns where considerable changes in land-use and
external factors are not expected

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