Solved Paper I - 2021
Solved Paper I - 2021
(2021)
Important Note: Answers are written such that they can be produced in the exam
like situation in the given time and word limit. This year for paper 1 UPSC
provided 2 sides (1 page) for 10 markers and 3 sides (1 & half page) for 15 & 20
markers. 10 markers should be addressed in 150 words and 15 & 20 markers in
250 words. There was clear guideline that writing less or more than word limit may
lead to reduction in marks.
Answer:
Let us assume, at given price if Quantity demanded (Qd) < Quantity Supplied (Qs)
supplier reduces price and if Qd> Qs supplier increases prices. Under this
condition Walrasian equilibrium is stable if above equilibrium price Qd < Qs and
below equilibrium price Qd > Qs.
Marshallian Stability Condition
Let us assume, at given quantity if demand price (Pd) > supply price (Ps) supplier
increases output and if Pd < Ps supplier reduces output. Under this condition
Marshallian equilibrium is stable if on left of equilibrium output Pd > Ps and on
right of equilibrium output Pd < Ps.
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Answer:
If one generalized lorenz curve (GL1) lies above another (GL2) in at least some
portion and no where it lies below the other then GL1 dominates GL2 and this is
called generalized lorenz dominance.
We know G (gini coefficient) is the ratio of area between the diagonal and the
lorenz curve to the area below the diagonal. So 1 – G = ratio of the area below the
lorenz curve to the are below the diagonal.
Consider a generalized lorenz curve. Area below the diagonal in such a curve = 0.5
* base * height = 0.5 * µ (since base = 1 and height = µ). So µ * (1 – G) = 2 * area
below a generalized lorenz curve.
This means that every W = µ * (1 – G) can be represented as a generalized lorenz
curve. So if W1 > W2 it means that area below the generalized lorenz curve of W1
(GL1) > area below the generalized lorenz curve of W2 (GL2). Now it will always
be possible to construct at least one set of generalized lorenz curve in a way that
GL1 will dominate GL2 .
According to Shorrock’s theorem, for the same preferences and strict concavity of
individual utility functions, if a generalized lorenz curve GL1 dominates another
generalized lorenz curve GL2 then GL1 represents a higher social welfare state.
Now invoking Shorrock’s result we can see that GL1 represents a higher state of
welfare than GL2 and thus W1 represents higher welfare than W2.
Note : One of the toughest question. I have borrowed solution form Gaurav
Agarwal’s notes.
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Answer:
Lets say goal of economic agent is to maximize his utility in each period of his life.
He gets utility from two sources: consumption (C) and leisure (L).
Thus,
U = F(C, L)
Where z represents shock to the economy. With positive shock income will
increase and with negative shock income will decrease. Lets say there is positive
economic shock.
Temporary Shock
In case of temporary shock economic agents knows that this will not change future
income. Thus, to allow higher consumption in future he will save.
Permanent Shock
In case of permanent shock agent know that rise in income will last long. So his
incentive to save would be reduced and his incentive to consume increased. Hence
autnomous expenditure will also increase due to change in expected future income.
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1.(d) Does government borrowing always crowd out the private investment ?
Illustrate.
Answer:
In crowding out increase in public spending increases interest rate and thus drive
outs private investment.
Lets say money demand is completely interest inelastic. With rise in fiscal
expenditure transaction demand for money increases there will be only one income
at transaction demand is equal to money supply. Thus interest rate increases such
that increases in government spending compensated by fall in private investment
and consumption.
No crowding out
When interest elasticity of money demand is infinitely elastic then rise in fiscal
spending will have no effect on interest rate and thus no crowding out.
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1.(e) The slope of the IS schedule will become steeper if the government
reduces the rate of proportional tax but will not change at all if the
government reduces the level of a lump sum tax. True or false ? Explain.
Answer:
IS curve gives relationship between income and interest rate at which goods market
is in the equilibrium. For simplicity lets assume closed economy.
IS : Y = C + I + G
C = a + bYd and
(1-b)Y = a – bT + v – qr + G
C = a + b*(1-t)*Y
(1- b + b*t)Y = a – b + v – qr + G
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2.(a) Explain the differences between Cournot model of duopoly with similar
product and differentiated product.
Answer:
Cournot’s model is duopoly model. In Cournot each firm acts on the assumption
that its competitor will not change its output irrespective of its decisions.
Lets say firm A enter into market first. Then he will behave as monopoly and start
selling quantity OA. Now firm B enters into market it will assume that A will keep
producing OA. Hence it considers its own demand curve as CD’
With CD’ curve it maximizes output by producing AB. Now A will realize that
price has fall. He will assume that firm B will keep producing same output. And
adjust output accordingly. He will produce (Total output – Output of B)/2.
Similarly By seeing rise in prices B will react assuming constant output of A. This
pattern of action reaction continue till each firm produces equal output that is 1/3
rd of total output.
In case of differentiated product demand for the each firms will be different. Thus
because of this case output for each firm will be different which was same in the
case of similar Cournot model.
In case of similar product Cournot model they assumed same cost (due to
similarity of product). However, in case of differentiated product cost may also
vary due to differentiation.
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Answer:
In oligopoly theory, conjectural variation is the belief that one firm has an idea
about the way its competitors may react if it varies its output or price.
Lets say market is at equilibrium at price p* and quantity q*. Now if single firm
decided to increase prices other firms may not follow it (This is conjecture). Thus
firm increasing prices will loose its market share to the other firms. Hence demand
curve is more elastic above price p*.
If single firm decreases price, other firms will also follow it to prevent the loss of
market share (This is conjecture). Hence demand curve is inelastic below price p*.
Kinked demand curve is not model of price determination. Kinked demand curve
just explains price stickiness. However, it fails to explain to determine exact price
and quantiy.
Also in the real world, prices are not static as suggested by Sweezy. Also firms
may not try to maximize profit but to increase market share by price and non price
competition. Due to advertisement a strong customer loyalty can be seen in that
case firms can raise prices without loosing much market. Thus Sweezy’s demand
curve is not providing satisfactory solution to price output decision under
oligopoly.
Note : Second part is of 10 marks but I guess marks are allocated to conceptual
understanding than number of pages written.
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2.(c) Examine how profit, wage and rent in Ricardian system move differently
with the movements in level of income.
Answer:
Assumptions
Model
Rent is surplus over the transfer earning of the land. Thus the difference between
average product and marginal product is paid as rent to the landowners. Now
remaining surplus has to be divided between labors and capitalist. There is constant
subsistence wage rate thus labors are paid w*number of labors. Remaining is profit
of capitalist.
Industry agriculture linkages
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Answer:
Supply curve explains relation between price and output in the economy.
With rise in demand and thus prices increases. At higher price level with constant
money wages labor demand curve will shift rightward. However labor will
immediately understand fall in real wages and thus labor supply curve will shift
leftward (Change in money wages). Thus output will remain same and just prices
will increase.
Keynesian Model
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Answer:
Liquidity preference is a Keynesian theory. It shows demand for money with the
given interest rate. Keynes said that there are two motives to hold money. One for
transaction purpose and other for speculation of future interest.
At low interest rate there is a chance of increasing interest rate and thus falling
bond prices. At low interest rate if capital loss outweighs interest rate earned
investor will prefer to hold money. It is called as speculative demand for money.
In Equilibrium MS = Md = F(Y,r)
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3.(c) Explain how the weaknesses of Keynesian speculative demand for money
have been identified in Regressive Expectations model.
Answer:
Keynesian throry of money demand divides money demand in two parts. Keynes
said that there are two motives to hold money. One for transaction purpose and
other for speculation of future interest.
At low interest rate there is a chance of increasing interest rate and thus falling
bond prices. At low interest rate if capital loss outweighs interest rate earned
investor will prefer to hold money. It is called as speculative demand for money.
According to Keynes the demand for money refers to the desire to hold money as
an alternative to purchasing an income-earning asset like a bond. However it was
not able to answeer the question : if bonds earn interest and money does not why
should a person hold money?
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Answer:
Assumptions
1. Flexibility of prices.
2. Flexible wage rates.
3. Perfect labor and goods market.
4. According to the hypothesis of rational expectations, expectations are
formed on the basis of all available relevant information concerning the
variable being predicted
Lets consider that there is expectation about increasing money supply and thus
prices. Lets say money supply increased and push prices up from P0 to P1′.
Increase in price level will sift labor demand outward. But as money supply change
is anticipated economic agent react to it adjust accordingly. It results into shift of
labor supply and hence output to leftward. With systematic rise in money supply
will result into same output and employment at increased price level. Thus long
run aggregate supply curve will be vertical line. (In first diagram show vertical
LAS)
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4.(b) Describe high powered theory of money supply in brief. State the
assumptions made in its construction.
Answer:
High powered money refers to that currency that has been issued by the
Government and Reserve Bank of India. H theory of money explains the change in
money supply of economy due to change in high powered money.
Assumptions
Model
Money multiplier is ratio of commercial bank money to the high powered money.
H=C+R
m = M/H
Now commercial bank money can be divided in currency held by public and
demand deposit (D).
M=C+D
Now C = k*D
R = r*D
Where r is cash reserve ratio
Hence H = (k+r)*D
and M = (k+1)*D
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Answer:
Government spending is expansionary fiscal policy thus will lead to outward shift
in IS curve. Decrease in required reserve ration is expansionary monetary policy
leading to outward shift in LM curve.
In closed economy there will not be any trade nor any capital exchange.
Expansionary fiscal policy will increase income. However it will also increase
transaction demand of money. To compensate it speculative demand of money
should decrease by increase in interest rate.
This rise in interest rate can crowd out private investment. But there is also
expansionary monetary policy which will prevent crowding out (by downward
revision of interest rate). Thus, there will not be recession instead output will
increase in this case.
Open Economy With Fixed Exchange Rate & Without Any Capital Mobility
In the economy without any capital mobility expansionary monetary policy will
not affect external balance. With perfect capital immobility the BP curve is vertical
at the income level at which imports equal exports.
Expansionary fiscal policy will increase income and thus import. On other hand
expansionary monetary policy will not affect capital outflow. Here exchange rate is
also fixed. Thus here there will not be recession but external balance of economy
will be in the disequilibrium.
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Answer:
But if the wage rate is w2 and if the firm estimates that by switching alone it would
be below point B, it will not switch. This is despite the fact that if all firms switch
simultaneously, the economy may reach much above B but still a coordination
failure will happen in the absence of state planning.
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Answer:
Gender sensitive human development index measures the gender gap. It can be
constructed as follow.
The gender sensitive human development index is the ratio of the HDIs calculated
separately for females and males using the same methodology as in the HDI. It is a
direct measure of gender gap showing the female HDI as a percentage of the male
HDI.
The GDI shows how much women are lagging behind their male counterparts and
how much women need to catch up within each dimension of human development.
It is useful for understanding the real gender gap in human development
achievements and is informative to design policy tools to close the gap.
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Answer:
Covered interest arbitrage refers to the spot purchase of the foreign currency to
make the investment and the offsetting simultaneous forward sale (swap) of the
foreign currency to cover the foreign exchange risk.
To do this, the investor exchanges the domestic currency for the foreign currency
at the current spot rate and at the same time the investor sells forward the amount
of the foreign currency he or she is investing plus the interest he or she will earn so
as to coincide with the maturity of the foreign investment.
If economic integration is not there neither interest arbitrage will work nor
exchange rate arbitrage. It will lead to failure of covered interest rate parity. Thus
for establishing covered interest rate parity economic integration is pre requisit.
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Answer:
The real exchange rate (RER) between two currencies is the nominal exchange rate
(e) multiplied by the ratio of prices between the two countries, P/P*. On other hand
Term of Trade is ratio between prices of two countries.
RER = E*(P/P*)
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Answer:
It is usually said that with increase in economic development energy use also
increases. Hence for ensuring long term economic sustainability sustainable use of
energy becomes important.
Sustainable use of energy will help us to fulfill SDG 7 related to clean and
affordable energy. It can ensure economic development. Thus, future economies
should focus on sustainable use of energy.
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Answer:
In the first part, industrial income rises and agricultural income falls. It also creates
disparity between urban and rural area. It is because backwash effect is working for
rural and agricultural sector.
Over the period spread effect starts working in rural area. It raises income in rural
area. Also because of political pressure government might take actions to reduce
inequalities. It together helps in reducing inequalities.
In countries like India and Brazil inequalities have not shown downward trend with
growth. Inequalities kept rising with growth. It might be because of weak
manufacturing sector and strong service sector. Another reason could be high
income inequalities in initial phases. Thus India and Brazil might be taking time to
go on downward path of Kuznet curve.
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6.(b) Does human capital cause economic growth ? Explain how human
capital formation can be enhanced.
Answer:
Human capital have played important role in economic growth. It can be seen in
the Japan, South Korea and South East Asian Countries. Endogenous growth
models also prdicts that human capital can cause economic growth. Romer’s model
also predicts that investment in human capital can lead to growth for longer time.
Y = AK
∆K = I = sY – dK
sY = K(∆K/K) + dK
Thus sY = (n+d)K
but Y/K = A
Hence sA = (n + d)
Thus by focusing on health, education and skilling human capital can be enhanced
in the country.
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Answer:
Harrod – Domar model wanted to determine unique rate at which investment and
income must grow such that full employment level is maintained for longer time.
In Harrod’s model warranted growth rate is growth rate which induces enough
investment to match planned saving. It is given by
So in the steady state or rate of growth of investment is equal to the rate of growth
of GDP is equal to s.σ. It is same as the Harrod’s warranted growth rate.
If capital grows faster than labor i.e. gw > gn, labor will become scarcer, wages
will increase and technological innovations will take place in labor saving
techniques. Thus Vr will increase (since now more capital is required to produce
same output) and this will lower gw. If however, labor grows faster than capital
then gw < gn, and labor redundancy will depress real wages and shift will be made
towards labor intensive technologies. Thus Vr will fall and gw will increase.
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Answer:
Product life cycle model explains that intially develope country innovates a
product. Over the time developing country acquires comparative advantage in that
product and starts dominating innovating country.
Stages of product life cycle model
1. In stage I (time OA), the product is produced and consumed only in the
innovating country.
2. In stage II (AB), production is perfected in the innovating country and
increases rapidly to accommodate rising demand at home and abroad.
3. In stage III (BC), the product becomes standardized and the imitating
country starts producing the product for domestic consumption.
4. In stage IV (CD), the imitating country starts underselling the innovating
country in third markets, and in stage V (past point D) in the latter’s market
as well.
Case Studies
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7.(b) Do you think that movement of the nominal exchange rate of Rupee
represents a corresponding movement of Indian goods vis-a-vis foreign
goods ? Explain your position.
Answer:
Since 2000 India have seen gradual depreciation of Indian currency. International
trade theories suggests that depreciation of currency increases export of the
currency and decreases import. In India this movement can be seen.
As currency depreciate export increased but however import have also shown
increasing trend. Rise in import increased due to following reasons.
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7.(c) What are the different categories of trade blocks ? Are trade blocks
beneficial to less developed economies ? Justify your answer.
Answer:
A trade bloc is a trade agreement among governments that are typically within a
shared geographical region. The agreement is entered into as a means of protecting
member nations from excessive imports of non-member nations. And to encourage
trade among member states, tariffs, taxes, and other trade barriers among them are
often reduced or abolished.
1. Free-Trade Area: All barriers to import and export of goods and services
among member countries are removed. For e.g. North American Free Trade
Agreement (NAFTA).
2. Customs Union: Free-trade area + all member countries adopt a common set
of trade restrictions with non-members.
3. Common Market: Customs union + all barriers to the movement of labor
and capital goods among member countries are removed.
4. Economic Union: Common market + member countries establish common
institutions and economic policy. For e.g. European Union (EU).
5. Monetary Union: Economic union + member countries adopt a single
currency. For e.g. European Zone
1. The ASEAN free trade aea have played important role in the development
of ASEAN countries. It increased economic development, job creation &
reduced poverty.
2. African free trade agreement is playing important role in the development of
African continent. UNECA estimates that AfCFTA will boost intra-African
trade by 52.3% once import duties and non-tariff barriers are eliminated.
3. However, usually less developed countries gains less in free trade agreement
due to their low negotiation power and limited production capacities.
4. In South Asia, SAFTA have limited success.
5. However, ASEAN free trade area have also created problems like 1999
currency crisis which affected economies of ASEAN countries.
Thus it can be said that effect of trade blocks on less developed countries is mixed.
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8.(a) If the government raises taxes on labour income and interest income,
explain how potential GDP and economic growth are affected.
Answer:
Potential GDP is an estimate of the highest level of output an economy can sustain
over a period of time. It assumes that an economy has achieved full employment
and that aggregate demand does not exceed aggregate supply.
Effect of Increased Labor Income Tax & Inerest Income Tax on Potential
GDP
Increase in labor income tax will reduce wages for the labor. This will discourage
labor force participation. Thus, labor supply curve will shift inward. Thus labor
supply will decrease and hence potential GDP
Increase in tax on interest income will affect investor sentiments. It will discourage
overall investment which will further affect potential GDP in the economy.
If the government raises taxes on labour income and interest income, potential
GDP and economic growth of the country will lower.
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8.(b) Examine the effects of providing public service by a private agency at a
lesser price than earlier one on (i) a closed economy with fixed wages. (ii) a
closed economy with flexible wages.
Answer:
When private agency provides public service at low price, value of marginal
product for the labor will change. It will generate different effect in the economy in
case of fixed wages and flexible wages .
This is a Keynesian case. Fall in prices will increase real wages. As shown in
below figure it will result into the involuntary unemployment RT. Labor market
won’t be in equilibrium. Employment and output will be less than natural level.
This is a classical case. Now service is provided at lesser price. Lets assume that
there is no government subsidies. So in such case value of marginal product of
labor will decrease and real wages will increase. Thus labor demand curve will
shift dowanward (Nd(P1) to Nd(P0)). Labor will get to know increase in real
wages. As the wages are flexible there will be downward revision of nominal
money wages. It will shift labor supply curve outward. Hence, equilibrium will be
reestablish at the initial employment and output level.
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Answer:
1. It argues that it is silly to think that there might be social preferences that are
analogous to individual preferences
2. Social prefrences should not be used in social welfare theorem
3. Arrow’s Theorem to emphasize the chaotic, untrustworthy nature of
democracy.
Sen’s Modification
Amartya Sen extended Arrow’s framework to take into account not only ordinal
information about people’s preferences among pairs of alternatives, but
also cardinal information about the utility they derive from each one.
In this way he was able to investigate the consequences of other assumptions than
Arrow’s about the measurability and interpersonal comparability of individual
preferences.
Note : Most difficult question of the 2021 Paper. Not sure about exact solution.
Even after googling you will not find exact solution.
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