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Predict 1 & 2 Overview

This document discusses building capacity for pandemic prevention using a One Health approach. It proposes targeted surveillance of animals like primates, bats, and birds in areas where human activities increase contact. The approach involves sampling animals and humans, testing samples for known and novel viruses using PCR and sequencing, and reporting results to authorities. It had success in the past by sampling over 56,000 animals, developing diagnostic methods, and detecting 984 viruses. The new focus is proposed to identify drivers of high-risk human behaviors and pathways for disease emergence, with targeted surveillance of wildlife, livestock, and humans. A One Health policy aim is to validate approaches through collaborative evidence gathering and promote policies that reduce virus spread.

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662 views34 pages

Predict 1 & 2 Overview

This document discusses building capacity for pandemic prevention using a One Health approach. It proposes targeted surveillance of animals like primates, bats, and birds in areas where human activities increase contact. The approach involves sampling animals and humans, testing samples for known and novel viruses using PCR and sequencing, and reporting results to authorities. It had success in the past by sampling over 56,000 animals, developing diagnostic methods, and detecting 984 viruses. The new focus is proposed to identify drivers of high-risk human behaviors and pathways for disease emergence, with targeted surveillance of wildlife, livestock, and humans. A One Health policy aim is to validate approaches through collaborative evidence gathering and promote policies that reduce virus spread.

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UncoverDC
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We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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PREDICT:

Building capacity to prevent


pandemics using a One Health
approach
The Challenge

Pre-empt or combat, at their source, the first


stage of emergence of zoonotic diseases that
pose a significant threat to public health
(potentially pandemic infections)
Emerging Infectious Diseases

• Majority are of animal origin


(zoonotic)

• 75% of emerging zoonoses have


wildlife origins

• Human activities at the interface are


linked to EIDs (Nipah virus, SARS,
Ebola)

• Annual population growth among


highest in buffers to protected areas
near wildlife
Emerging Infectious Diseases
One Health Approach

Animals

Humans
Environment
Hot Spots 2
Targeted, Risk-based Surveillance
Targeted, Risk-based Surveillance

• Primates
• Bats
• Rodents
• Birds
• Suids
• Carnivores
• Ungulates
• Humans
Work Flow
• Conventional PCR –
• Oral Swab
Viral Family testing
• Rectal Swab or Feces
• Urine sample
• Blood Sample • Sequencing

• Interpretation

• Report to Authorities
• Approval of Results
• Guidance for Policy
• Analysis and Modeling
Work Flow
• Conventional PCR –
• Oral Swab
Viral Family testing
• Rectal Swab or Feces
• Urine sample
• Blood Sample • Sequencing

• Interpretation

• Modify methods
• Report to Authorities
• Approval of Results
• Guidance for Policy
• Analysis and Modeling
Safely Sampled More than 56,000 Animals
Developed & Operationalized Diagnostic Platform
Laboratory Capacity Building

• Trained 32
laboratories
globally
• 27 screening for
targeted viral
families
Ran Over 400,000 Diagnostic Tests
Viral Detection Success

Overall 984 known and new viruses:


• 812 novel and 147 known in animals
• 3 novel and 31 known in human pilot studies
Outbreak Investigations
With Governments: Making Data Available to the Public
PREDICT-2 Focus

Identify large-scale
trans-boundary
ecological processes
underlying human
activities at high-risk
interfaces

Characterize pathways
for disease emergence
PREDICT-2 Focus

Target Biological
Sampling on:
Wildlife
Livestock
People

Behavioral Risk
Assessment

In support of mitigation
Behavioral Risk Surveillance Strategy
• GOAL: To identify drivers of specific behaviors/practices
that lead to viral spillover and potential targets for
mitigation
• How accomplished?
– Rapid, targeted 4-8 week in-depth qualitative
research in DRC, Cameroon, Uganda, Indonesia,
China, Bangladesh
• Fill in knowledge gaps
• Inform behavioral survey for higher data quality
– Develop behavioral risk survey
• Informed by qualitative data, EPT-1 research and published
manuscripts
• Pilot tested in countries with no in-depth qualitative research
• Administered in as many countries as possible

– Concurrent biological sampling and behavioral risk


survey/rapid questionnaire (Interim tool to be used
first)
– Focus on highest risk sites for risk mitigation

Pending discussion with local partners and authorities


Qualitative Research

Observational
assessment=
Human
Environment
Focus Groups=
Community Life

Ethnographic
Interviews=
Individual &
Household
Targeted, Risk-based Training & Surveillance
Targeted, Risk-based Surveillance

• Camels
• Bats
• Humans
Scientific Strategy: Viral Families

• Coronaviruses
• Influenza’s
• Parainfluenza’s
• Filoviruses
• Others if possible

• SARI – ILI - FUO


Scientific Strategy: Virus Risk
Expanded characterization of viruses with epidemic and
unknown pandemic potential combined with risk assessment

Spillover risk
Pandemic risk
One Health Policies/Practices
Promoting policies and practices that reduce the risk of virus
evolution, spillover, amplification, and spread

• Collaboration with The World Bank – building an evidence base for One
Health

• Proposal to hold ‘Phase II’ workshop in partnership with World Bank (likely
in a future year)

• Oriented toward policy change

• One Health assessment and investment criteria

Objective 5: Validating One Health Approaches


One Health Policies/Practices

Validating One Health Approaches

2011- 2012 Workshop and Report

Objective 5: Validating One Health Approaches


One Health Policies/Practices
Conduct a systematic and dedicated effort to validate and evaluate
the utility of One Health approaches using all available evidence
Preventive/Early Warning Reactive

Monitoring/early Response/Control: $$$


detection: $
Health burden:
Health burden: DALYs
DALYs

Deaths: 49 Deaths: 9,500+

Duration: <90 days Duration: >460 days

Perceptions: Perceptions:
Confidence in Vulnerability fears and
preparedness lack of predictive value
infrastructure
Operations:
Operations: Multidisciplinary; Sole-discipline; limited
inclusive (all gender, income) population integration

Objective 5: Validating One Health Approaches


WHERE we are working
Geographic Focus
Asia* Africa* Africa*
Bangladesh Cameroon Republic of Congo
Cambodia Cote d’Ivoire Rwanda
China DR Congo Senegal
Lao PDR Egypt Sierra Leone
India Ethiopia Sudan
Indonesia Gabon South Sudan
Nepal Ghana Tanzania
Malaysia Guinea Uganda
Mongolia Kenya
Myanmar Liberia M.E.*
Philippines Jordan
Thailand
Vietnam
*In-country locations TBD based on identification of target
epizones and transmission pathways
PREDICT-2 Partners
Consortium Partners:
EcoHealth Alliance, Metabiota, Smithsonian Institution, UC Davis,
Wildlife Conservation Society
Global Partners:
CDC, EPT One Health Workforce, EPT Preparedness & Response, FAO, WHO,
DTRA, Columbia University, HealthMap, UC San Francisco
Implementing Partner Examples (in addition to consortium partners):
Africa: Institut National de Recherche Biomedical, Mountain Gorilla Veterinary
Project, Inc., Sokoine University of Agriculture
Asia: Center for Molecular Dynamics Nepal, Chulalongkorn University, East
China Normal University, ICCDR-B, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Institut Pasteur du
Cambodge
Host country and regional partner Examples:
Ministries of Agriculture, Health, Livestock, Wildlife, and associated
Departments; USAID missions; and relevant host country laboratories,
universities, and research institutes (e.g. Institut Pasteur, Wuhan Institute of
Virology, local CDCs, etc.)
PREDICT - 2

The Ministries of Health, Agriculture & Environment and


Implementing University and NGO Partners in 31 Countries

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