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Modeling An Epidemic - Project2 - Systems Thinking Course

The document describes a systems thinking assignment on modeling the spread of an epidemic. Students are asked to build on an SIR model developed in class to include additional factors like deaths and incubation period. They then explore policy interventions like lockdowns and enhanced preventative behavior. Students are evaluated on documenting their model, comparing graphs with and without interventions, and critiquing assumptions to improve the model. Diffusion of innovations and other contagion problems are given as examples that exhibit similar structural behavior to epidemics.

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Nikhil Anand
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
34 views

Modeling An Epidemic - Project2 - Systems Thinking Course

The document describes a systems thinking assignment on modeling the spread of an epidemic. Students are asked to build on an SIR model developed in class to include additional factors like deaths and incubation period. They then explore policy interventions like lockdowns and enhanced preventative behavior. Students are evaluated on documenting their model, comparing graphs with and without interventions, and critiquing assumptions to improve the model. Diffusion of innovations and other contagion problems are given as examples that exhibit similar structural behavior to epidemics.

Uploaded by

Nikhil Anand
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Systems Thinking

Professor Aakriti Gupta

Project 2: Modeling an Epidemic (15 marks)


This is a group assignment

In class, we developed the base model for an epidemic to understand the system
dynamics modeling process for a complex problem such as this. We explored the
propagation of an infectious disease through a population of susceptible individuals -
using the famous SIR model. Infectious diseases present critical management and
public policy challenges (Covid has been a case in point, and we may also consider HIV,
the threat of bioterror attack, Spanish Flu, the plague, etc.). They also provide a useful
setting to explore feedback—how the states of a system (the levels or stocks) influence
(or “feed back” to) the flows that alter those states. These systems are the building
blocks from which more complex systems are composed. The assignment will build
from the introduction to the structure and behavior of fundamental feedback systems,
and take us towards developing a more complex model and assessing policy
alternatives.

The assignment gives you practice with the concepts of dynamic modeling and the
modeling process while enabling familiarity with Vensim. The assignments may be
discussed in class in the 9th lecture (depending on logistics), and is important from an
end term perspective.

You are to work on this assignment in your allocated groups, and submit your work
(model) and writeup (with graphs, text, simulation explainers) via the course website.
Include your model (the “.mdl” model file you created in Vensim) with your final
submission.

A1. 5 points. Build the model described below.

Be sure to document your model (both the diagram and the equations). This means the
following:

1. Add sufficient commentary and explanation so that the meaning of each variable,
the reasoning behind each formulation, and the data sources for each parameter
value are clear to your audience. Do not wait until later to fill in the documentation,
but document each equation as you create it. Doing so saves time in the long run.
Forcing yourself to describe, in writing, the rationale for each formulation and
sources for each parameter tests your understanding: if you can’t write a concise,
clear description of a variable and its equation you probably don’t understand it well
enough.

2. Label causal links with the correct polarities.

3. Denote causal loops with appropriate names and labels.

Always provide the units of measure for every variable, and check that every equation is
dimensionally consistent. Vensim can test your model for dimensional consistency
(look up the tutorial online). Models that fail the dimensional consistency test are
meaningless. Dimensional errors are usually symptoms of more serious conceptual
difficulties.

Model description:

On top of your base model which was developed in class:

• Add a sector for deaths by adding a new stock for People died, a flow called deaths,
CFR (Case Fatality Rate) and change the equation of recovery to balance inflows and
outflows
• “Deaths” = Infectious post incubation*CFR/Infection Duration
• Derive Recovery
• Add a stage where a person in Infected but not yet infectious. This stage is the
incubation period.
• After this stage, people move to Infectious post incubation stage, at a constant
flow based on Incubation period
• “Infected after Incubation” = Infected not yet infectious/Incubation period
Further Data inputs:

• Transmissibility = 0.1
• Initial Population = 1000
• Contacts per day = 10
• Incubation period = 5 days
• Infection duration = 10 days
• CFR = 1%

A2. What is the impact of policy decisions on the dynamics of the epidemic? You will
now make edits and changes to the existing model to explore implications of NPIs
(Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions).

A. Let’s say the govt. introduces a lockdown to reduce the contact rate. Split the
contact rate into “Contacts per day (Normal)” and “Contacts per day (effective)” to
study the impact. The new variable, “Contacts per day (effective)” = Contacts per day
(Normal) * Effect of Lockdown. Take Effect of Lockdown as 0.5.
B. Enhanced caution due to handwashing, sanitising and mask wearing also reduces the
transmissibility of the virus. Split transmissibility into “Virus Transmissibility” and
“Effective Transmissibility”, same as above. Take “Effect of enhanced caution” as 0.5.
Add equation as follows:

Effective transmissibility = Transmissibility normal*0.5*(1-Fraction Infectious)

1. 4 points. Upload the new model under the name “Group<no.>_Epidemic


_A2_Policy Impact”. Share the graphs of the previous runs (A1) and compare them
to the new run with both lockdown and enhanced caution activated. What is the
impact of new policy? What is the role of Fraction Infectious in transmissibility? Can
you explain?
2. 2 points. “You don’t change the numbers, you just change the dates.” - Swedish
epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. Do you agree or disagree? Argue referencing the
model.

B1. 2 points. Critique your model and suggest improvements that can be made to
improve modeling outcomes. The model you have developed so far is very simple.
Briefly critique its formulation and list the major assumptions you view as unrealistic.
What are some improvements that an advanced modeler would make to address these
assumptions? Feel free to use Covid as a case in point to explore opportunities for
improvement to bring the model closer to real life contagion problems. (150 words,
bullet points preferred)

B2. 2 points. The feedback structure governing the spread of contagious disease can
also help to explain the growth of new products, the diffusion of innovations, the
spread of financial panics, and other forms of social contagion important in business
settings as well as other creative contexts such as a zombie apocalypse. Can you
explain one (or a different choice) of these problems that illustrate similar structural
behavior of contagion? Illustrate the important loops and provide an explanation. (100
words)

To summarise: Each group’s submission has 3 components:


A. Model for A1 named as “Group<no.>_Epidemic_A1_Base Model”
B. Model for A2 named as “Group<no.>_Epidemic_A2_Policy Impact”
C. PDF with graphs, explainers, CLDs and supportive material for entire exercise
named “Group<no.>_Epidemic_Project2 submission”
Assigned: Tuesday, January 10, 2022; Due: 11 PM Sunday, January 16, 2022
Expected time to complete: Not more than 3 hours.

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