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The Resort Development Spectrum (a New Approach to Modelling Resort

Development)

Article  in  Tourism Management · June 2000

DOI: 10.1016/S0261-5177(99)00055-2

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 Tourism Management 21 (2000) 225 } 240

The resort development spectrum * a new approach to modeling

resort development
Bruce Prideaux*
Department of Hospitality Tourism and Property Management, The University of Queensland, Gatton College, Lawes, Queensland 4345, Australia
Received 4 April 1998; accepted 28 January 1999

Abstract

The role of the market has been largely ignored in existing research into the development of resort areas. This paper argues that
a new approach to the issue of resort development is required and proposes a new model, the Resort Development Spectrum. The
model is based on the operation of the market speci"cally focusing on the operation of the supply side. Tourism development in resort
areas is found to occur in four phases commencing with local tourism and concluding with a fourth phase where the resort develops
a strong international pro"le. A possible "fth phase of decline, stagnation or rejuvenation is also postulated. The model does not "nd
that growth is automatic or even sequential through the phases. A major feature of the model is its ability to be operationalised
through the use of scenario generation and multiplier analysis, although these aspects of the model are not developed in this
paper. ( 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Destinations; Resort; Transport; Access price; Development models; Resort Development Spectrum; Australia; Suply side

1. Introduction modi"cations, it is possible to apply the model to other

types of resorts as well as the more general study of
Previous investigations into the development of destination development. The operation of the model will
tourism destinations have approached the question of be illustrated by an analysis of recent tourism develop-
growth from a number of perspectives, including chang- ment at the Queensland coastal resorts of Cairns and the
ing spatial relationships (Barrett, 1958; Gilbert, 1939; Sunshine Coast.
Miossec, 1976; Young, 1983; Smith, 1992), changes to the Following a review of the current state of research into
psychological needs of visitors (Cohen, 1972; Plog, 1973; destination development, the paper will consider the op-
Smith, 1977) and evolutionary cycles (Butler, 1980). The eration of the economic market that exists in coastal
role of the market, expressed as the economic forces of resorts. From this discussion, which will focus on coastal
price, demand, supply and equilibrium, has been largely resorts rather than the wider issue of destination develop-
ignored. This paper proposes a new model of resort ment, the Resort Development Spectrum will be out-
development, the Resort Development Spectrum, based lined. The model represents the growth path of resorts,
on the operation of the market within a tourism resort. based on partial equilibriums occurring at speci"c points
Although there are super"cial similarities to existing in the development process, on a continuum that starts
models such as the Tourism Area Cycle of Evolution with a small undeveloped coastal locality and concludes
(Butler, 1980) and Hierarchies of Control and Capital with a large international mass tourist resort. A four-
Input (Keller, 1987), the Resort Development Spectrum phased growth process is postulated with a possible "fth
approaches the question of development from an eco- phase of decline, stagnation or rejuvenation. Each
nomic viewpoint, based on changes within the resort growth phase exhibits a number of demand and sup-
market place. The model proposed in this paper applies ply}side characteristics that determine the composition
speci"cally to coastal areas in Queensland; however with of the resort's tourism market at a particular point in
time. Aside from the impact of demand and supply forces
that are expressed through partial equilibrium points,
* Tel.: #61-754601387; fax: #61-754601171. capacity is also an important and interrelated factor.
E-mail address: [email protected] (B. Prideaux) Resort capacity is a locality-speci"c factor determined by

0261-5177/00/$ - see front matter ( 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
PII: S 0 2 6 1 - 5 1 7 7 ( 9 9 ) 0 0 0 5 5 - 2
226 B. Prideaux / Tourism Management 21 (2000) 225}240

a combination of forces including environmental factors, (Wilkinson, 1987), Alpine areas of Australia (Digance,
land supply, community aspirations, perceptual (psycho- 1997), mountain regions (Tooman, 1997) and Swaziland
logical) components (Wall, 1983), government policy and (Harrison, 1995). Results of these studies have led to
availability of infrastructure services such as transport attempts to re"ne or embellish the original model (di
access, water and electricity. Indeed, in a locality with Benedetto & Bojanic, 1993; Strapp, 1988). Although
little growth space, capacity factors may choke o! studies by Wilkinson (1987) and Meyer-Arendt (1985)
growth at an early stage of development. While the appear to con"rm the shape of the curve, others have
factors of capacity, demand, elasticity and equilibrium found points of divergence (Cooper & Jackson, 1989;
are considered in a collective sense, their individual con- Getz, 1992; Hovinen, 1981).
tributions are not explored in depth, a task that is left to A number of researchers have identi"ed problems with
future research. the model, including its failure to take into account the
e!ect of a range of signi"cant economic factors, including
the role of the market. Debbage (1990), for example,
2. Research into destination life cycles found that corporate strategy and competitive economic
behavior were signi"cant factors in resort development in
Attempts to model the development of tourism desti- the Bahamas. Haywood (1986) stated that the true test of
nation areas such as resorts, has become an enduring the importance of the life cycle must be based on its
feature of tourism research. A number of models and ability to be operationalised as a tourism-area planning
typologies have been suggested to explain development and management tool. Cooper (1992) identi"ed a number
including; discussion of seaside resorts in England of problems with the life cycle concept, including identi-
(Gilbert, 1939), studies of changing beach resort morpho- "cation of the turning points of the cycle, identi"cation of
logy (Barrett, 1958), study of travellers' personalities stages and length of stages. Commenting on the life cycle
(Plog, 1973), modeling of the e!ect of evolutionary approach suggested by Butler, Cooper (1992) states that
change on resort hierarchies (Miossec, 1976), evolution- it has `much to o!er researchers and rather less to o!er
ary cycles (Butler, 1980), analysis of resort development the tourist practitionera.
of Maltese farming}"shing villages (Young, 1983), analy- As originally conceptualised, Butler did not envisage
sis of hierarchies of control and capital (Keller, 1987) and the model as a prescriptive tool and e!orts to use it in this
investigation of changing land patterns (Smith, 1992). way have caused problems particularly when trying to
Keller (1987) for example, focused on the hierarchies of identify stages and their turning points (Brownlie, 1985;
control and capital input that appeared to determine Cooper & Jackson, 1989; Haywood, 1986). In a recent
both the rate of development and the level of bene"ts publication, Butler (1993) acknowledged that the model
#owing back to the community. From these observa- was only one of a number of tools that can be used to
tions, a model was constructed based on development conceptualise the dynamics of change in tourism destina-
stages determined by the source of tourist arrivals. Keller tions. In a review of the model presented at the 1998
(1987) also parallels the stages of development to the Australian Tourism and Hospitality Conference, Butler
typologies suggested by Cohen (1972) and Plog (1972). (1998) noted that `at the time at which it was presented,
Of the approaches developed to explain destination the purpose of the model was relatively simple, to argue
area growth, the Tourism Area Cycle of Evolution pro- the case that destinations had a life as a product and this
posed by Butler (1980) has received the most attention life would proceed through stages and at some point
and has been tested by numerous researchers. The likely end. It attempts to relate growth, change, limits
strength of the model can be gauged from its longevity and intervention in a tourism context, and brings
and ability to survive in the face of substantial criticism together the demand and supply sides of the equationa.
(Agarwal, 1994; Bianchi, 1994; Getz, 1992; Haywood, As the model stands, its simplicity is both its virtue and
1986). Although the model's popularity has endured for its weak point; it explains the process of growth yet it
almost two decades, it continues to exhibit a number of remains to be demonstrated how the model can be satis-
weaknesses that ultimately limit its usefulness as an ana- factorily operationalised. Application of Haywood's
lytical tool. For example, Agarwal (1997, p. 65) noted that (1986, p.37) conceptual and management criteria to But-
`despite the large volume of research reviewing the resort ler's model appears to con"rm that the Tourism Area
cycle, its validity, applicability and universality have yet Cycle of Evolution model does not provide su$cient
to be successfully provena. basis for developing planning or policy in tourism areas.
Based on the concept of the product life cycle, Butler's Moreover, the Tourism Area Cycle of Evolution does not
model has been extensively tested in a number of loca- consider the e!ect that competing areas can have on the
tions including: Malta (Oglethorpe, 1984), The Isle of shape of the curve, nor does it state if an undesirable
Man (Cooper & Jackson, 1989), the Caribbean (Weaver, self-ful"lling prophecy such as decline is likely to occur.
1993), Majorca (Morgan, 1991), Nigeria Falls (Getz, Results of most of the tests of Butler's model appear to
1992), Minorca (Williams, 1993), small island nations support the general theory of development cycles but
 B. Prideaux / Tourism Management 21 (2000) 225}240 227

many deviations from the idealised model have been and the demand for new resort infrastructure such as
noted (Cooper, 1992; Kermath & Thomas, 1992). housing, schools and retail space for both residents
Problems identi"ed with the model fall into eight gen- and visitors?
eral areas: skepticism over the ability of one model to
explain tourism development (Bianchi, 1994; Choy, 1992; Attempts to widen the scope of existing models, includ-
Prosser, 1995), problems with the concept of the product ing Butler's original model, have failed to yield answers
life cycle (Hart, Casserly & Lawless, 1984), conceptual to the questions posed. Butler's model and those de-
limitations of carrying capacity (Haywood, 1986; Getz, veloped by Keller (1987), and Smith (1992) appear in-
1992), the use of the cycle concept in tourism planning capable of answering these questions. A new approach,
(Haywood, 1986; Getz, 1992), a lack of empirical evidence based on an analysis of the changes within the resort
to substantiate the concept (Choy, 1992), determining the economy as growth occurs, will provide a framework for
shape of the curve and turning points (Cooper, 1992) and answering these questions.
problems in applying the life cycle concept in tourism
destinations (Agarwal, 1994; Shaw & Williams, 1994). To
these general areas of concern should be added the failure 4. The operation of the resort * some theoretical issues
to take into account the operation of the economic mar-
ket in destination areas. Tourism activity creates a commercial sector, or mar-
In spite of numerous applications of Butler's Tourism ket, where goods and services are produced for sale. In
Area Cycle of Evolution model in a host of settings, essence, the economic factor of demand is the process
researchers have failed to demonstrate that the cycle can that alerts potential tourists to the existence of a particu-
be used to predict the development path of resort areas. lar destination such as a resort and leads to travel to that
At the current state of the debate, the model constitutes destination. In turn, the collective demands by tourists
the orthodoxy of the tourism destination literature and for services such as transport, accommodation, recre-
can be described as tourism's "rst and perhaps only ation and entertainment generate a requirement for the
widely recognised paradigm. However, the model con- provision or supply of these services by a range of public
tinues to demonstrate limitations, principally its appar- and private sector organisations. To encourage demand
ent inability to be operationalised (Agarwal, 1994; for resort products, suppliers market their products to
Haywood, 1986). It is highly likely that the Tourism Area prospective customers (tourists).
Cycle of Evolution will continue to be used to explain the Put simply, the resort market is the location where
concept of development but, regardless of future modi"- goods and services are produced and sold. The market
cations, is likely to continue to su!er from criticisms can be viewed from a number of perspectives such as the
about its ability to be implemented. demand-side, supply-side and at the point where equilib-
rium occurs. From a demand-side perspective, the de-
mand for goods and services is expressed, in economic
3. De5ciencies in existing models terms, as a need or want that acts to encourage suppliers
to respond by producing products or services for sale.
Existing models of destination area development fail to Alternatively, a supply-side condition exists when
satisfactorily examine the impact of tourism development suppliers produce a good that they then attempt to sell
on the supply side of the destination economy. On the to customers (tourists) to create a demand for that
supply side, the composition of the destination's tourism good. Demand and supply forces operate at a number of
infrastructure is generally ignored. Unanswered ques- levels ranging from the regional economy through to
tions include: the national economy and "nally to the international
economy. The operation of demand and supply forces
f What role if any, does the transport system play in over a range of price levels provides useful insights into
facilitating development? the operation of the tourism industry, particularly at the
f What are the likely changes in the composition of resort level.
the destination's accommodation stock and other Analysis in this study is primarily focused on the sup-
tourism-related infrastructure as development occurs? ply-side of the resort market place, however, the role of
f What planning action is required to facilitate the move demand in resort development should not be overlooked,
from one stage of development to the next? given that supply is the expression of the market's re-
f Is it possible to predict the actions required to facilitate sponse to demand forces. In making this observation, it is
the movement from one stage to another? assumed that demand for the products and services made
f What e!ects do changes in price have on demand, available in the market place will be stimulated by the
supply and investment in the resort market? marketing activities of supply-side "rms, that is, as new
f Is it possible to forecast the impact of growth in terms hotels are built tourists will arrive to occupy the in-
of employment generation, workforce requirements creased number of rooms. Obviously, the increase in
228 B. Prideaux / Tourism Management 21 (2000) 225}240

demand as a consequence of increased supply is not price) will rise, and as the distance between generating
automatic, rather it is the outcome of a conscious deci- regions and the resort increase, the size of the potential
sion by suppliers to promote their products and services market catchment expands.
to prospective customers.
4.2. Resort capacity
4.1. The mechanism of resort development
In a coastal resort, &total capacity' can be expressed as
The mechanism of resort development can be illus- the sum of the individual capacities of each organisation
trated by the e!ect of a range of demand and supply providing goods and services for the tourism industry
forces on a hypothetical coastal resort. Commencing (Martin & Uysal, 1990). For example, hotel capacity is
with a single-sector market resort in Fig. 1, the impact of the sum of all hotel rooms available for occupation. If the
demand and supply forces will be analysed. The growth resort develops an oversupply situation in hotel rooms,
of the hypothetical resort illustrated in Fig. 1 will be room rates will fall, resulting in lower than usual rates of
traced from a coastal settlement (village or small town) returns on investment. Conversely, if demand pressures
that services a single tourism sector through to the point increase to a level where an under-supply of rooms
where the settlement has grown into an international emerges, room rates can be expected to rise in the short
tourism resort and services a number of tourism sectors. run, and in the long run investors will be encouraged to
The model will be illustrated by applying it to the devel- expand capacity to a point where the demand for rooms
opment of a number of coastal resorts in Queensland. roughly equals supply (Tribe, 1995).
The notion of over-supply or under-supply presup-
4.1.1. Assumptions made poses that consumers (tourists) have the ability to travel
Assumptions made about the development of coastal to a resort, free of any restrictions. This is not always the
resorts are: case. If a distant resort is only accessible by car, capacity
will be determined by both the supply of resort accom-
f The price system operates in a manner that matches modation and other services, as well as the physical
the demand for goods with the quantity suppliers are ability of people to travel to the resort utilising the
willing to produce (Samuelson, 1992). existing transport network. Similarly, the cost of trans-
f Supply forces create the conditions necessary to stimu- port (or access cost) to the resort is a signi"cant factor in
late development. the resort's ability to attract tourists, particularly when
f Demand forces can be manipulated by factors such as generating regions are some distance away. The willing-
advertising to create demand for the services provided ness of tourists to accept travel hardships such as dis-
by the supply-side. tance and several changes in mode of transport will also
f No assessment is made as to which is necessarily "rst, be a factor (Prideaux, 1996).
demand or supply. At the point where demand equals supply, it is possible
f The hypothetical model used in the following dis- to identify an equilibrium point where total capacity is
cussion of the interaction of demand and supply rep- reached under existing circumstances. Once an equilib-
resents a small coastal settlement that is interested in rium point is reached, further growth is unlikely to occur
tourism development. unless capacity and existing travel barriers are overcome
f Demand conditions relate to the reaction of tourists and the resort is able to attract a new market segment
faced with a choice regarding a holiday destination. of tourists such as those who prefer air travel to the
Tourists are assumed to be normal consumers who automobile as their normal transport mode.
wish to maximise available resources of time and The hypothetical resort outlined in Figs. 1}3 illustrates
money when selecting a resort. a series of growth phases that commence when the resort
f Supply forces are assumed to include the private sector caters for visitors living in nearby areas. As the resort
and relevant elements of the public sector. Private gains popularity, new source markets are tapped and
sector suppliers are assumed to be pro"t maximisers. growth commences. New source markets may be based
f Equilibrium points occur where demand equals supply on distance criteria, cost criteria or a combination of the
at a given price. As the resort's demand and supply two. Growth based on distance criteria will draw visitors
pro"le changes over time, new equilibrium points will from progressively more distant source markets, com-
occur. mencing with surrounding areas followed by more
f Price refers to a combination of the standard of the distant intrastate, interstate and "nally international
holiday experience and access cost. markets. New source markets based on cost may re#ect
f Access cost refers to the cost of transport from tourism a resort's ability to attract visitors who live nearby but
generating regions to the resort. Two key factors relat- did not previously consider the resort as a holiday desti-
ing to the distance between generating regions and nation because it lacked the range of hotels and other
destinations are: as distance increases the cost (or amenities required.
 B. Prideaux / Tourism Management 21 (2000) 225}240 229

As the resort grows, investment in new infrastructure

is required including accommodation and transport
facilities. Construction of an airport at a resort
that previously relied on road transport will provide
an opportunity for resort businesses to develop new,
more distant markets thereby stimulating the supply-
side. Ultimately, a new equilibrium point will be reached
at the point where the maximum capacity of the resort is
reached and additional tourists cannot be accommod-
ated with existing facilities. In economic terms, the
Fig. 1. A single market sector resort in equilibrium.
ultimate success of the tourism industry at local,
state, national and international levels depends on
the interaction of the basic economic forces of demand,
supply, equilibrium and capacity. The operation of de- prices while providing the same quality of service o!ered
mand and supply forces and the resulting equilibrium are prior to the overall increase in price. Accommodation
illustrated in Fig. 1. operators and other service providers will then be faced
with a number of options; reduce cost levels to maintain
4.3. A one-sector resort in equilibrium overall rates of return on investment, identify new mar-
kets to increase demand at the higher price P or, leave
2
The following discussion illustrates how the price the industry. If the overall price remains high, it is likely
mechanism, expressed as supply and demand forces, that in the longer term a new supply curve to the left of
creates the conditions necessary for resort development. SS will emerge as the quantity of accommodation pro-
1
In Fig. 1, the vertical axis represents the price vided is reduced from Q to Q thus creating a new
1 2
paid for a holiday at the resort while the horizontal equilibrium point. Increasing cost pressures on the sup-
axis represents the supply-side of the resort market ply side may be one of the factors that force resort
measured by the quantity of visitors over time. The entrepreneurs to seek out new markets thus triggering
demand for travel to a tourist resort is represented by a new phase of growth.
demand curve DD while the supply of tourist products In Fig. 1, the spatial characteristics of the resort illus-
1
in the resort is represented by supply curve SS . trated at E are typical of a small seaside settlement with
1 1
At equilibrium point E , the demand for tourist limited tourist numbers but exhibiting signi"cant poten-
1
services Q equals the quantity of services that tourism tial to increase capacity. Realising the potential of the
1
operators are prepared to provide at price P . Price in area will require improvement of the resort's infrastruc-
1
this case is taken to be the overall price paid by tourists ture including transport access. At equilibrium point
for the range of goods and services consumed during E the resort is likely to exhibit the following character-
1
their stay at the resort plus the cost of travel (access cost) istics:
to the resort. As a consequence, the demand for and
supply of tourism services are said to be in equilibrium at f Accommodation * beach holiday houses, #ats, caravan
point E . parks, inexpensive motels. Investment funds are prim-
1
As in other markets, equilibrium is not static and arily sourced from local investors.
usually changes over time (Bull, 1991). In the resort f Recreation Activities * limited to the beach and shared
illustrated in Fig. 1, should the price for tourism services use of facilities with local residents.
increase to P , caused perhaps by increased wages or f Shopping * very limited and focused primarily on the
2
other costs, demand will fall to Q causing a contraction needs of local residents.
2
in visitor numbers. At price P there will be over-capacity f Entertainment * very limited and centred around the
2
equal to Q Q . Classical economic theory holds that activities organised by local hotels and other commun-
2 1
if the price increases to P there will be an upward ity-based organisations such as sporting clubs, reli-
2
shift in the supply curve to form a new equilibrium gious groups and local charities.
point based on P Q . However, as the capacity of f Promotion * limited. Funds are raised from local
2 2
tourism infrastructure is relatively "xed, the shape of businesses and used to promote the area in larger
the supply curve is unlikely to alter in the short term. In surrounding population centres.
the real world, the resort's accommodation sector will f Markets * typically, visitors will be budget conscious
initially respond by reducing prices to stimulate demand. and seeking a relatively inexpensive holiday. Most
Prices will tend to fall towards point P to stimulate tourists will be residents of surrounding areas. There
1
demand. may also be small numbers of interstate tourists who
In the long run, the accommodation sector and other are passing through the area on their way to larger,
service providers are unlikely to be able to sustain low better known resorts.
230 B. Prideaux / Tourism Management 21 (2000) 225}240

f Transport Access * in Australia, the private motor the end of this development phase hotels up to 3 star
vehicle will normally be the primary form of transport standard may also be built.
used to travel to resorts. If services are available, f Investment * investment from external sources has
coaches and perhaps rail will also be used, though to commenced and a number of local businesses will be
a much lesser extent than private cars. bought out and redeveloped.
f Recreational activates * an increase in the number of
4.4. A two sector resort * ewects of changes to supply and tourists with greater purchasing power will encourage
demand the development of golf courses, tennis courts and
other recreational facilities.
Over time, a resort will exhibit a number of equilib- f Shopping * new shops selling products other than
rium positions if growth occurs. Increased demand will those directly consumed by the resident population
often encourage suppliers to add higher quality infra- are established. The new shops might feature resort
structure typi"ed by a shift from inexpensive motels to leisure wear, recreational items as well as art and craft
resort apartments and quality motels o!ering a range of galleries.
recreational and leisure facilities. Fig. 2 illustrates the f Entertainment * a range of new entertainment venues
hypothetical resort moving from the original equilibrium are opened. These might include restaurants, night
point at E , to a new equilibrium point at E , after a new clubs and amusement arcades.
1 2
group of tourists, Q Q have been attracted. This new f Transport * transport access and the cost of transport
1 2
group of tourists are willing to pay the higher price of P . will play a major role in determining the ability of the
2
Points OQ and Q Q can be taken as representing resort to tap into new markets. In Queensland, the
1 1 2
di!erent phases of resort growth. Point E represents major mode of transport to the resort will continue to
2
a two-sector resort consisting of the original sector OQ be by private car; however, some aviation services by
1
who continue to pay the original price P and the new commuter airlines may commence during the course of
1
sector Q Q who pay the higher price of P . At equilib- the shift towards equilibrium point E .
1 2 2 2
rium point E the resort has undergone the "rst phase of f Promotion * promotion now assumes a more profes-
2
growth. Transport access to the resort is likely to become sional approach. Funds are still raised from local busi-
a key determinate of the rate and size of growth. As nesses and may be supplemented by local and state
access improves, perhaps through new road, rail and sea governments. In addition, the newly established tour-
links and later air services, new and more distant markets ist-dependent businesses such as hotels will fund their
will become accessible. own out-of-area promotional campaigns. It is likely
At equilibrium point E fundamental changes have that local businesses will have established a tourism
2
occurred to the supply side as new facilities have been promotion body with full-time sta!.
added to the facilities previously developed to meet f Markets * the original groups of tourists will, in most
demand at point E . These include: cases, continue to use the area as long as accommoda-
1
tion costs do not rise signi"cantly and the original low
f Accommodation * a number of high-quality resort priced facilities such as motels and caravan parks are
motels will be built. Many will o!er additional ameni- not redeveloped. A new wave of tourists prepared to
ties such as golf courses, sporting facilities, evening pay a higher price for a better standard of accommo-
entertainment, restaurant and shopping facilities. dation, and higher access costs will begin visiting the
There will also be an increased emphasis on building resort creating a resort with two identi"able market
apartment units. Accommodation facilities present at sectors.
E may be retained and possibly refurbished. Towards f Scale of growth * the resort's unique natural and built
1
attractions, competition from surrounding destina-
tions and the size of new tourism generating regions
will have a strong impact on the rate and scale of
growth.

The general trends identi"ed in Fig. 2 illustrate a the-

orised version of trends that can be observed occurring
along the Queensland Coast. To understand the pro-
cesses at work it is necessary to observe changes that
occur in both the demand and the supply side of the
model. In some instances, the demand for a tourist prod-
uct will stimulate the private sector to supply new facili-
ties and in other instances entrepreneurs in the private
Fig. 2. E!ects of changing equilibrium points in a hypothetical resort. sector will identify an opportunity, develop a facility and
 B. Prideaux / Tourism Management 21 (2000) 225}240 231

then actively market it. In practice, it is very unlikely that of the resort's source markets such as a move into inter-
equilibrium positions will last for more than a short state markets.
period and will re#ect changing demand at given price It should be noted that at equilibrium points E and
2
levels. In classical economic theory, equilibrium is as- E , the shape of the supply curve di!ers from that found
3
sumed to occur when demand equals supply, all other at E re#ecting changes in elasticity of demand. Tourists
1
things being equal (Samuelson, 1992). In the tourist in- seeking budget style accommodation, such as caravan
dustry, demand is not readily predictable and can change parks and low cost motels in equilibrium position E , will
1
rapidly as a consequence of numerous factors such as have a high elasticity of demand and be sensitive to
currency #uctuations, political interest, in#ation and relatively small increases in price. At equilibrium point
"ckleness on the part of the tourist consumer. E , characterised by serviced apartments and 3 star mo-
2
tels, tourists are willing to pay a higher price and argu-
4.5. A three-sector resort model ably have a more inelastic demand pro"le than
characterised at equilibrium point E . At equilibrium
1
Fig. 3 illustrates the development of a three-sector position E , tourists are prepared to pay much higher
3
resort in which each sector can grow simultaneously and prices than the preceding tourist segment and also ex-
to some extent independently of other sectors. Over time, hibit a lower price elasticity. However, it can be expected
the shape of the demand and supply curves continue to that visitors represented by price line Q E will exhibit
3 3
change re#ecting the various sectors, or populations of a range of sensitivity to price changes with visitors nearer
tourists, visiting the resort. In the resort illustrated in to point Q exhibiting greater sensitivity than those near
3
Fig. 3, there are three price levels re#ecting various levels E . For the P tourist segment, price may not be the
3 3
of accommodation and access cost. Equilibrium point overriding concern in holiday planning with factors such
E comprises the sum of three di!erent market sectors, as service levels, amenities and recreational opportuni-
3
these being OQ , Q Q and Q Q . This is not unexpected, ties, presumably being of equal or greater importance.
1 1 2 2 3
because larger resorts generally o!er a range of accom- A fourth sector can be postulated and would see a new
modation standards. Visitors represented by sector Q Q equilibrium point at E . To achieve this new equilibrium
1 2 4
are willing to pay the higher price P and prefer to stay in point, international tourists will need to be attracted in
2
hotels that have a higher standard than those required by considerable numbers.
sector OQ . The "nal sector, Q Q who pay P might be
1 2 3 3
tourists staying in 4 to 5 star resort hotels. This is not to 4.6. The growth path of a multi-segment resort
say, however, that visitors represented in each sector can
be characterised solely on the basis of the cost of accom- The possible path of progression from E to
1
modation. Transport access costs are also important and E through a series of intermediate equilibrium points is
3
the total price paid is a combination of the price of plotted in Fig. 4 which illustrates the e!ect of growth on
accommodation, transport and other holiday expenses. resorts over time. At Q the resort was able to attract
1
Indeed, tourism capacity represented at point Q will tourists willing to pay up to P . Beyond this point further
3 1
include a range of accommodation types including char- growth will only occur if additional tourists willing to
acteristic of preceding phases of development. Each of pay P are attracted, or new tourist sectors prepared to
1
the groups using the resort are likely to exhibit di!erent pay P can be developed. In the case where additional
2
elasticities of demand. Development of the additional capacity (including motel/hotel, recreation and other
resort sector Q Q will occur only if there is an expansion tourism services) continues to be priced at P , growth will
2 3 1

Fig. 3. A three-sector tourism resort. Fig. 4. Growth path caused by shifts in equilibrium points.
232 B. Prideaux / Tourism Management 21 (2000) 225}240

eventually cease at Q and a new equilibrium point E is f changes over time in the national and international
2 2
reached. economies,
At E the new demand curve (D D ), while having f the investment in new transport infrastructure, and
2 2 3
moved to the right of its original position, re#ects a situ- f distance that the resort lies from its major generating
ation where tourists are only prepared to pay P irre- regions.
1
spective of improvements to the resort's supply of
amenities contained in sector Q O . At E growth will The combination of these factors will determine the
1 2 2 shape of the supply line and the ideal capacity of a given
stagnate when the upper limit of the P market is reach-
1 resort. At each sector in the model illustrated in Fig. 4,
ed. Beyond Q additional growth will only occur if a new
2 "ve components of capacity are evident:
tourism sector willing to pay P can be attracted. In
2
e!ect, expansion of capacity on the horizontal axis re-
f infrastructure comprising tourist facilities such
#ects increases in quantity (at the same price level) and
as hotels, shops and restaurants, and other services
quality (at higher price levels). Growth beyond Q indi-
2 including electricity, communications, health and
cates that the quality of the resort's infrastructure is
justice,
increasing. A shift in the rating of resort accommodation
f transport infrastructure that enables people to travel
from low cost motels to 3 star motel properties is one
to the resort,
characteristic of such a change.
f ecological constraints including sensitive wildlife
If new regional tourism markets prepared to pay
reserves,
P are to be developed, four conditions will need to be
2 f physical constraints such as land and water supply,
satis"ed:
and
f tourists prepared to pay P will have to be identi"ed, f attractiveness of the resort's natural and built
2
f resort capacity is increased, attractions.
f the ability of the resort's unique natural and built
attractions to handle large tourist numbers is satis"ed,
and 5. The resort development model
f the quality of the supply of services, particularly in the
transport and accommodation sectors, will need to be By combining the characteristics of resort develop-
enhanced. ment illustrated in Figs. 1}4, a resort model, the Resort
Development Spectrum, can be developed. The Resort
The enhanced accessibility of the resort will support an Development Spectrum, illustrated in Fig. 5, incorpor-
increase in total tourism from OQ to OQ creating the ates the variables of demand, supply and capacity. Five
2 3
new equilibrium point E . Continued growth in demand phases of growth are postulated:
3
from E to E will occur if the price is contained to P .
3 4 2
For growth to occur beyond point Q additional trans- f Phase 1: Local tourism.
4
port infrastructure (such as an upgraded airport) and f Phase 2: Regional tourism.
new attractions will have to be constructed to attract a f Phase 3: National tourism.
new tourist sector prepared to pay P . Eventually, a new f Phase 4: International tourism.
3
equilibrium point E will be reached. The path between f Phase 5: Decline/stagnation/rejuvenation.
5
the equilibrium points E , E , E and ultimately to
1 2 3 The e!ect illustrated in Fig. 5 is a representation of the
E can take a number of shapes, depending on the time
4 resort's market sectors (and generating regions) as well as
taken to expand the quality of the resort's capacity. Each
resort can be expected to show a di!erent pattern of its phases of growth. As growth occurs new sectors are
supply-side capacity expansion based on: added, creating a multi-sector resort market place. At
each phase of development, the resort is likely to reach
f the main tourist attraction/s of the resort, a position where its market is well de"ned and to some
f success in developing new tourism generating regions, degree contained by capacity, measured in terms of sup-
f the support given by local authorities, ply. If the resort desires to increase its overall size, it will
f the support of the local residents for tourism develop- have to look for new market sectors and more distant
ment, market places. Thus in phase 4, the model identi"es the
f the time that resorts take to expand their supply-side existence of a number of market sectors each willing
capacity, paying a di!erent cost for their holiday experience.
f carrying capacity expressed as land available for devel- Three possible scenarios for the post-phase 4 period
opment, availability of resources such as water, and are stagnation, rejuvenation or decline. The actual shape
political factors, of the growth line will depend on the time taken to
f composition of new investments in infrastructure, expand capacity as the resort moves from one phase to
f e!ect of competing resorts, the next.
 B. Prideaux / Tourism Management 21 (2000) 225}240 233

Fig. 5. The resort development spectrum.

The model postulates that growth occurs as a result of f Each new phase of development will be characterised
expansion of the resort's infrastructure and parallel de- by a change in the style of hotels and apartments
velopment of new market sectors. The key components constructed.
determining the shape of the growth curve are the will- f Progression from one phase to the next is dependent
ingness of suppliers to invest in new tourist facilities, the on the development of new or expanded transport
rate of construction of new or expanded transport infras- facilities.
tructure designed to transport additional tourists from f Each tourism sector caters for distinct groups of clien-
new markets, capacity of the resort with respect to phys- tele and may continue to expand independently of
ical and ecological constraints and success in attracting development in other sectors.
new market sectors. The role of external political f The attitude of local government and the community
and economic forces will also become evident as the will exert an in#uence on the speed and size of growth.
resort moves into the international market place. The f Resort growth will be constrained by the area's
characteristics of each phase in the Resort Development carrying capacity including the attractiveness of its
Spectrum are out lined in Table 1. principal attractions, either natural or built.
The major features of the Resort Development Spec- f Intrastate tourists are the main source of tourists dur-
trum are: ing phases 1 and 2 while phase 3 tourists are sourced
from interstate. In phase 4 the emphasis shifts to inter-
f With each successive phase of development, the pro- national tourists.
motion task is expanded to include state, national or f Additional private and public sector infrastructure in-
even international market places and is undertaken by cluding emergency services, law enforcement, electri-
both private and public sectors. city, water, accommodation and retail outlets are
f Growth phases are based on the distance to major provided by various agencies, and "rms expand supply
generating regions, commencing with the surrounding to meet the increased demand placed upon them by
area followed by intrastate, interstate and "nally inter- a growing tourist trade.
national markets. f Expansion can be either demand-driven or supply-
f Each additional development phase will attract driven. In the case of demand-driven expansion, new
new tourist sectors prepared to pay a higher price than facilities will be constructed as demand places pressure
the previous sector. The higher price may consist of on existing plant and premises. Alternatively, supply-
either higher transport costs combined with modest driven expansion will occur as facilities are construc-
accommodation or higher transport costs and expen- ted on the assumption that their provision will
sive accommodation. For example, motel accommo- generate new business through increased patronage.
dation will typify the initial phase of development f For each phase of development it is possible to identify
while 5 star holiday hotels will appear in 3 and 4 a number of accommodation sectors. For example, in
Phases. phase 1, resort accommodation will generally include
234 B. Prideaux / Tourism Management 21 (2000) 225}240

Table 1
The Resort Development Spectrum Framework

Major characteristics Phase 1: Local tourism Phase 2: Regional tourism Phase 3: National tourism Phase 4: International tourism

Principal Markets Locals As per stage one plus; As per stage two plus; As per stage 3 plus;
People from nearby towns Tourists travelling from areas Tourist who travel long Emphasis on international
within the state or region distances from all parts of tourism
the nation
Possibly limited interstate State capital cities become
tourist tra$c passing through primary markets
the area on route to a larger
resort
Accommodation Beach houses Unit and appartment 3}4 star hotels International hotel chains
development occurs establish resort hotels
Caravan parks 2}3 star resort motels Integrated resorts
appear
Licensed hotels (not resorts) Caravan parks still Internationally known hotel Numerous 5 star hotels which
important chains commence hotel may incorporate golf courses,
development i.e. Hilton, casinos and stage shows
Ramada
Inexpensive motels Outside investment
commences in hotels
Backpackers Hostels
Promotion Local area and surrounding State wide Establish professionally Very professional approach
towns sta!ed promotion body
Undertaken by local progress May attract government Joint campaigns with state May attract signi"cant
and/or tourist associations funds and local government and government funds
local businesses
Limited funds Businesses operating in the Hotels and major attractions Corporate advertising very
resort advertise on an fund signi"cant campaigns signi"cant
individual basis in national media
Limited professionalism Increasing professionalism
of advertising campaigns
Tourism Infrastructure Limited to beach and nearby Commencement of Establishment of "rst theme Focus of tourist interest shifts
scenic areas such as parks a commercial sector based park from the beach to non-beach
on tourism activities
Limited shops catering for Additional specialist shops Expansion of shopping and Development of specialist
tourists and restaurants dining opportunities shopping prescints
specialising in tourism
Tour coach operators Construction of a range of Establishment of Duty-Free
commence sporting facilities such as shopping
golf courses
First man-made attractions Construction of Convention
built, generally on a small Centre and possibly Casino
scale
Transport Very limited in scope Road access is signi"cantly Scheduled interstate air International air services
enhanced services commenced by commence
national operators or
a$liates
Main mode is road Other modes may be assisted Road access continue to be Other modes continue to be
by infrastructure development improved, i.e. Freeways. developed
Possibly some tra$c from Limited (if any) scheduled air Other modes may be Depending on distance to
rail if the resort is located services operated by local signi"cantly redeveloped, source markets, air may
close to rail services airlines i.e. sea terminals and rail become the dominate mode.
services
No scheduled air services

caravan parks, holiday houses and inexpensive motels. f The model does not assume that the visitor pro"le
By phase 4, accommodation will include large interna- in each phase is limited to only that phase and
tional 5 star hotels as well as a range of holiday the preceding phases. Thus, in phase 2 there might
apartments in addition to phase 1 style accommoda- be a small number of tourists from interstate and
tion types. overseas.
 B. Prideaux / Tourism Management 21 (2000) 225}240 235

Growth is not necessarily an in"nite process and at development and the property may experience di$culty
some point in time growth may cease. While the follow- attracting distant markets.
ing discussion assumes the resort has attained interna- The rapid development of Port Douglas in Far North
tional status, growth may cease, stagnate or decline at Queensland illustrates the situation where a supply-led
any point in the resort's development. In the case where hotel project caused a typical phase 1 resort to develop
a resort has developed a large international market it will a new sector that exhibited some phase 3 characteristics.
continue to market its product both nationally and inter- Until the construction of the 5 star Sheraton Mirage
nationally while its market share may decline either Resort Hotel in 1987, tourist activity in Port Douglas
qualitatively, quantitatively or both. Decline in this case centred on inexpensive motels and caravan parks servi-
may be represented by a range of circumstances such as cing the local and intrastate market. The Sheraton Mi-
a decline in overall visitor numbers, the loss of a signi"- rage Resort Hotel was built as a supply-side initiative
cant market such as the international market or a speci"c and heavily marketed in Australia and overseas until the
sector of an existing market, reduction in total visitor desired occupancy rate was reached. The project became
spending or a reduction in bed numbers through closures a catalyst that encouraged investors to build additional
or redevelopment. Should decline occur as a consequence upmarket accommodation at Port Douglas as demand
of the failure of the resort to adapt its product to grew. Resort growth was initially supply-driven, later
the changing demands of its respective markets, neither becoming demand-driven as tourists &discovered' Port
the spending of additional funds on promotion or Douglas. Prior to the opening of the hotel, Port Doug-
upgrading of infrastructure are likely to arrest the las's accommodation stock consisted only of caravan
problem. Decline may be attributed to a number of parks, apartments and several cheap motels. Following
factors including the failure of the resort to develop the opening of the Sheraton Mirage Resort Hotel, a new
new products to cater for changed tourism demand, accommodation sector was added to the existing sector
failure to promote itself e!ectively, the success of to create a two-sector resort comprising a local market
competitors in drawing away potential clients, failure to and an interstate or phase 3 market. Elements of phase
rejuvenate infrastructure or for a range of economic and 2 development were constructed later.
political factors that e!ect the whole nation. The onset
of decline should be observable and therefore capable of
correction in most cases. To date the only evidence of 6. Operation of the model-example of phases
major decline in a coastal resort in Queensland has been
the former seaside resort of Redcli!e which saw its The operation of the model can be illustrated by exam-
tourism industry disappear through a combination of ining tourism development in two Queensland resorts,
factors including enhanced transport access to its com- the Sunshine Coast and Cairns. The Sunshine Coast will
petitors (Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast), a failure to be used to illustrate the mechanism of change as a resort
update tourism infrastructure and inaction by civic moves from phase 2 into phase 3, while Cairns will be
authorities. used to demonstrate the factors which operate as resorts
moves from phase 3 to phase 4. The Sunshine Coast,
5.1. Exceptions to general development trend best described as a sea, sand and sun destination,
is located in the south of Queensland. The resorts di!er
Exceptions to the general trend outlined in Fig. 5 can only marginally in terms of the number of bed nights
occur for a number of reasons. It is possible for growth to (in 1997 Cairns recorded 6.7 million bed nights while
cease at any phase and it is possible to jump phases as the Sunshine Coast recorded 6.2 million bed nights
occurred in Port Douglas. If a phase is missed, there is (Queensland Tourist and Travel Corporation, 1998)),
a strong probability that the market will respond and but exhibit very di!erent development patterns, and
elements of the missing phase such as transport infras- service di!erent market segments. Whereas Cairns
tructure, resort facilities and hotel types will emerge in experienced a rapid change in status from a phase 3
time. Another exception may occur if the resort is part of resort to an international resort demonstrating the char-
a circuit. In these circumstances, the point of entry to the acteristics of phase 4 of the model, the Sunshine Coast is
circuit may be a much larger town from where visitors only slowly undergoing the process of change that will
are bussed to other sites. A further exception may occur see it progress from phase 2 to 3. Development in both
when a developer builds a large property in the expecta- destinations has been underpinned by signi"cant
tion that an airport will be built or expanded to accom- transport infrastructure developments. In Cairns, the
modate the aeroplane types required to service the construction of an international airport played a funda-
intended market. If, as occurred with the 4 star Capricorn mental part in developing an international market
International Resort built at the Capricorn Coast in while in the Sunshine Coast, the redevelopment of the
Central Queensland, an airport is not built to the original domestic airport to unlimited Boeing 737-300
required standard, the resort will not attract similar aircraft operations in 1993 facilitated the development of
236 B. Prideaux / Tourism Management 21 (2000) 225}240

a national market pro"le that accords to phase 3 devel-

opment predicted in the model.

6.1. Sunshine Coast

Located north of Brisbane about one hour's drive by

car, the state capital, tourism development at the Sun-
shine Coast has progressed from phase 1 resort patterns
evident in the latter part of the 19th Century, to phase
2 development in the early decades of the 20th century
Fig. 6. Development of Sunshine Coast market segments 1982/83 to
when all weather roads were built to Brisbane. During 1996/97.
the 1960s, the destination gained popularity with inter-
state visitors as the level of car ownership increased. The
destination's major tourist attraction are its numerous frastructure constructed on the Sunshine Coast has been
sandy beaches and water sports. O!-beach tourism at- the reconstruction of the Brisbane to Sunshine Coast
tractions are relatively unsophisticated and orientated to highway to 4-lane motorway standard and the re-
the drive tourist. Nearby hinterland resort towns of development of the Maroochydore airport to jet stan-
Malaney and Montville focus on arts and crafts activities dard. The reconstruction of the highway has been the
as well as o!ering a range of accommodation including major factor in the growth of intrastate tourism as Bris-
farm stays. Although promoted nationally as one desti- bane residents have increasingly viewed the Sunshine
nation, the resort is divided by political boundaries into Coast as a alternative to the Gold Coast (an international
three distinct tourist sub-regions based on the local auth- destination located 80 km south of Brisbane) as a holiday
ority areas of Maroochy Shire, Caloundra City, and resort. Similarly, the redevelopment of the Maroochy-
Noosa Shire. On the sub-regional level, each authority dore Airport to accommodate Boeing 737 size aircraft
operates independently but on the national level, they has made it easier for interstate tourists to #y directly to
actively cooperate to market the destination as the Sun- the Sunshine Coast rather than the previous options of
shine Coast. The dominate form of tourism accommoda- either driving, or #ying to Brisbane and travelling the
tion in the Sunshine Coast has been caravan parks, Brisbane-Sunshine Coast leg by small non-jet commuter
holiday units and apartments, and motels. Following the aircraft.
opening of the 5 star Hyatt Regency Coolum Resort in In many respects the Sunshine Coast continues to be
1989, two further 4 to 5 star resort hotel properties have overshadowed by the much larger Gold Coast to the
been built to service the nearby Brisbane market as well south. Prior to 1987, the Gold Coast displayed many of
as a growing interstate market. the phase 3 characteristics of the Sunshine Coast but in
Fig. 6 shows the Sunshine Coast's major market sec- following years attracted considerable overseas tourists
tors based on intrastate (phases 1 and 2), interstate (phase and rapidly evolved into a phase 4 resort. The Gold
3) and international arrivals (phase 4). The "gure clearly Coast boosts a number of tourism-related attractions
illustrates the 1990s as the point at when the resort not found on the Sunshine Coast including three interna-
commenced its development into a phase 3 resort as tional standard theme parks, numerous 4}5 star
predicted by the Resort Development Spectrum. Data international hotels, and a greater range of shopping
was draw from the Queensland Visitors Survey (Queens- opportunities including duty free. Although the sun, surf
land Tourist and Travel Corporation (QTTC), 1996) and sand element remains an important element of the
which has been funded by the QTTC since 1982. Gold Coast's appeal, the emergence of major o!-beach
Data prior to 1982 showing market segments was not tourism infrastructure including shopping, theme parks,
collected. a casino, sporting facilities and events and a well-known
Analysis of Fig. 6 shows that over the period 1982}83 night club district has given the Gold Coast a destina-
to 1996}97 there has been strong growth in the intrastate tional image not matched by the Sunshine Coast.
market of 236.9 per cent or an average of 15.8 per cent It appears that until the Sunshine Coast develops
per year. In the same period, the interstate market has a signi"cant o!-beach tourism infrastructure, including
grown by 291.5 per cent or an average of 19.4 per cent per a major theme park and an entertainment district, it will
year while the international market has grown from 4.8 continue to attract a signi"cant number of intrastate
to 11 per cent. These "gures contrast to Cairns where visitors, apparently attracted by the Sunshine Coast's
intrastate tourism has fallen from 45.8 per cent of the reputation as a family destination verses the Gold
market in 1982}83 to 31.8 per cent in 1996}97 while Coast's more hedonistic image (Prideaux, 1996). The
international tourism has grown from 12.4 per cent in relatively unsophisticated nature of the Sunshine Coast's
1982}83 to 43.1 per cent in 1996}97. During the period o!-beach tourism infrastructure also appears to be a
1982}1995, the major non-accommodation tourism in- major factor hampering the continued growth of the
 B. Prideaux / Tourism Management 21 (2000) 225}240 237

destination's interstate market. While this market has

continued to grow strongly, it remains smaller in volume
than the intrastate market. Although the Sunshine Coast
has moved into a phase 3 development pattern it still is
some way from demonstrating all of the characteristics of
this phase of development.

6.2. Cairns

Originally developed as a port to service the mining

and agricultural industries of far north Queensland,
Cairns has developed into a major international tourism
destination based on construction of an international
airport and its easy access to the Great Barrier Reef,
nearby beaches and World Heritage listed rainforests.
Cairns provides a clear example of how a destination can Fig. 8. Location of Sunshine Coast and Cairns on the Resort Develop-
progress from phase 3 to phase 4 as infrastructure is ment Spectrum.
enhanced. The changing composition of visitor types
(Fig. 7) illustrate the rapid change from a phase 3 resort
to a phase 4 resort over the period 1985}1997 in the Fig. 8 illustrates the operation of the Resort Develop-
manner predicted in the Resort Development Spectrum. ment Spectrum for the Gold Coast and the Sunshine
The opening of the Cairns International Airport in 1985 Coast in the period 1985 to 1996. While the turning point
allowed direct access to international tourists and heral- for each phase is apparent, the position of each resort in
ded a wave of investment in resort hotels, golf courses, relation to future growth paths is speculative. In its
4 and 5 star tourist hotels by international operators and current phase of development the Sunshine Coast lacks
signi"cant investment in tours to the nearby reefs and many of the characteristics of a phase 4 resort as outlined
rainforests. in Table 1.

Fig. 7. Development of Cairns market segments 1982/83 to 1996/97.

238 B. Prideaux / Tourism Management 21 (2000) 225}240

7. Use of the Resort Development Spectrum for planing This can be followed by estimates of the additional
school places required, estimation of the type and quanti-
Existing models have been heavily criticised on the ty of retail spaces needed, as well as projection of the
basis of their inability to be operationalised. Unless the requirements for services such as hospitals, "re services,
Resort Development Spectrum can demonstrate an op- water, communications, policing and justice.
erational capability it will endure the same criticisms and By using scenario analysis, the resort's populous and
add little to the existing body of knowledge. Examples of local authority can gain an insight into the likely e!ects
destinational development cited from Queensland illus- of a range of development possibilities. Armed with the
trate the supply-side mechanism that operates in destina- results of the impact assessment of the preferred growth
tions as they move from one development phase to the scenario, resort planning authorities are much better
next. The model does o!er considerable scope for predic- placed to development e!ective town planning schemes
tion based on scenario generation and application of and plan infrastructure investment. In other words, the
multiplier analysis (Wall, 1997). model, when linked to scenario generation and multiplier
The capability of the model can be demonstrated analysis, can be used to predict the types of develop-
by taking the example of a coastal resort in phase 1 ment likely to occur in a given resort at any phase of
development. At this point, the resort is small and development.
not well known. If the resort's population, acting
through their local government authority, decide to
pursue an active development agenda, there is scope to 8. Conclusion
apply the model to predict future development patterns.
As a "rst step, an assessment of the resort's tourism The Resort Development Spectrum is an attempt to
attractiveness, such as the quality of its beaches and overcome many of the problems associated with existing
other natural features, will reveal if there is su$cient models. Previous models have tended, post ante, to
potential to attract regional and later national tourists. concentrate on the e!ects of growth. The strength
If there is potential for further growth, a series of scen- of the Resort Development Spectrum is that it points out
arios can be developed to ascertain possible future resort the type of actions that are required, ex ante, to facilitate
pro"les (van Doorn, 1986). Scenarios can be based on the growth of a resort from one phase to the next. In this
gradual growth or growth centred around the construc- regard, local authorities have some discretionary control
tion of at least one major commercial accommodation over the development. For example, if the local commun-
property. ity is not in favour of further tourist induced growth
As an example, assume that the scenario adopted was because of disruption to the community's life style,
to base development on attracting a large 1000 bed resort planning ordinances could be enforced to prevent or
as an initial development phase. Examples of this type of discourage certain types of development.
growth can be found in the previously discussed case of Conversely, desires by the local community for in-
Port Douglas and more recently, the 1000 bed Port creased tourism development can be assisted by recogni-
Hinchenbrook Resort Marina development at Caldwell tion that methods of promotion need to be adjusted and
in North Queensland. To support a resort of this size, that new forms of infrastructure will be required. In the
considerable supply-side infrastructure development case of transport infrastructure, early recognition of
is required including improved transport access and the eventual requirement in this area will a!ord planners
upgrading of essential services. the opportunity to set aside land for airports, road
Having determined the likely scale and type of devel- network, terminals, rail networks and port facilities if
opment, it is then possible to utilise multiplier analysis to required. Application of multiplier analysis will enable an
project the impact on the development on the town's estimation to be made of the requirements for a range of
workforce (Gamage, 1995; Lui, 1986). In a study of services and infrastructure such as housing, water supply
tourism multipliers in Victoria, Gamage (1995) used in- energy and communications.
put}output techniques to estimate the impact of tourism The Resort Development Spectrum identi"es a series
spending in Victoria. The study found that for every of growth phases that resorts can progress through, al-
$1000 spent by tourists, the total employment multiplier though not all resorts will move through each phase.
was 0.0285 employment opportunities. Using this analy- Indeed it is likely that some resorts will never grow
sis, it is possible to calculate a gross estimate of the total beyond phase 1 while only a few will ever reach phase 4.
employment generation that various types of tourism The strength of the model, in comparison to existing
development will create. models, is its ability to be operationalised and in so doing
Having arrived at a projection of the total expected create a base on which resort planning agencies can make
employment generation, the next step in the planning informed assessments on resort infrastructure require-
process is to determine the post-development require- ments at di!erent phases of growth as well as identifying
ments for housing of the resort's expanded workforce. possible rates of growth and the direction of growth.
 B. Prideaux / Tourism Management 21 (2000) 225}240 239

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