Om Final Guideline
Om Final Guideline
20WBR07945
Calculation formula
Ft-1= At
b. Moving average
Ft-1= Σ At / n
d. Exponential smoothing
Ft = Ft-1 + 𝛂 (At-1 - Ft-1 )
Break-even analysis
BEP=F/1-(V/P) RM
Profit = TR-TC
=PX=(F+VX)
=(P-V)X-F
TC= FC+VC
Chapter 2 layout decision
(consideration, issue) Layout design must consider how to achieve the following
Types of layout
1. Office layout
2. Supermarket layout
3. Servicescapes : the physical surroundings in which a service takes place and how they
affect customers and employees
Chapter 6 Forecasting
Forecasting is the process of predicting a future event. It is an underlying basis of all business
decisions such as production, inventory, personnel and facilities.
1. Short-range forecast- time span of up to 1 year but generally less than 3 month and it is
used for planning purchasing, job scheduling, workforce levels, job assignments,
production levels.
2. Medium-range forecast- also called intermediate forecast generally spans from 3 months
to 3 years. It is useful in sales and production planning, budgeting, cash budgeting and
analysis of various operational plans.
3. Long-range forecast- generally is 3 years or more time span. It is used in new products
planning, capital expenditures, family location, research and development.
From inception to completion
Forecasting method
Qualitative method
Used when the situation is vague and little data exist such as new products and new technology
Qualitative method involves intuition, experience
for example forecasting sales on internet
· The opinions of a group of high level experts or managers, often in combination with
statistical models, are pooled to arrive at a group estimate of demand.
· Relatively quick
· ‘Group-think’ disadvantage
· These experts do not have to be in the same facility, they do not know who the other
panelists are.
· It can help not only in preparing forecast but also in improving product design and
planning for new products.
· What consumers say, and what they actually do are often different (disadv)
Quantitative method
Used when situation os stable and historical data exist such as existing products and existing technology
Quantitative involves mathematical techniques
Eg
Forecasting sales of colour television
· Used when some trend might be present. Older data usually less important
· Ranges from 0 to 1
· Subjectively chosen
- Not recognizing that forecasts will always be wrong. Estimates of future demand
are bound to be subject to error and the magnitude of error tends to be greater for
forecasts that cover very long or extremely short spans of time.
- Failure to forecast the right things. Organisations may forecast the demand for
raw materials need not be forecast because these demands can be computed from
the forecast for finished products.
- Used the wrong method. There are many forecasting models with their own
strengths and weaknesses. So choosing the wrong model will cause the inaccurate
forecasting.
· There is a trade-off between cost and accuracy. More forecast accuracy can be obtained
at a cost.
· High accuracy approaches use more data, the data are more difficult to obtain and the
models are more costly to design, implement and operate.
· Each organization must make the cost and accuracy trade-off that is appropriate to its
own situation.
· If the attitudes and intentions of customers are a relevant factor in forecast and if the data
can be economically obtained from customers, then a survey of customers may be
appropriate method for developing demand estimates.
· On the other hand, if the requirement is to forecast sales of a new product, then a
customer survey may not be practical.
· Workers, cash, inventories and machine schedules are short-range in nature and can be
forecasted using moving average or exponential smoothing models.
· Factory capabilities and capital funds are long-range production resource needs and can
be estimated by regression and executive committee consensus.
· Managers are advised to use different forecasting methods for different products. Factors
such as whether a product is high volume and high cost should be taken into consideration.
· Is the product/service whether the product is a manufactured good or a service and where
the product is in its life cycle all affect the choice of forecasting model.
· Each forecasting model differs in its impulse response and noise dampening abilities. The
model selected must fit the forecasting situation.
· For example, in the case where we would like to keep our work force reasonably stable, a
forecasting model that has high noise dampening ability with low impulse response is more
appropriate to have less erratic forecasts for a planned stable work force.
Chapter 7b
Capacity: the throughput, or the number of units a facility can hold, receive, store, or produce in
a period of time.
Managing demand
solution= reduce demand by raising prices, scheduling longer lead time and discouraging
marginally profitable business.
Long term solution is to increase capacity
Eg
Add additional flights to meet the demand on the long-term basis
Reduce demand by raising the prices on the air tickets
Use bigger plane on the peak demand period
Relook into the flight scheduling and revamp with minimum number of flights for those having
discouraging marginally profitable business. Use that schedule to implement more flight which
demand are more encouraging
Promote and encourage those demand towards low demand period in order to reduce capacity
problem
Last resort. Implement coach sharing with another airline
2. Capacity exceed demand
Solution = stimulate demand through price reductions or aggressive marketing
Accommodate the market through product change
BEP=F/1-(V/P) RM
Profit = TR-TC
=PX=(F+VX)
=(P-V)X-F
TC= FC+VC
Chapter 8- product and service design
Product decision
Use competitive strategy of getting products to market rapidly and may include rapid design,
efficient delivery system and JIT manufacturing
Factors affecting new product opportunities
1. Understanding customer
- Many commercially important products are initially through of and even prototyped by
used rather than producers
- These users ( companies, organisation, individual) tend to be well ahead of market trends
and have needs that go far beyond average users
2. Economic change
- Economic change bring increasing levels of affluence in the long run but economic
cycles and price changes in the short run. For example, people can afford automobile in
the long run but in the short run, recession can weaken the demand for automobiles
3. Sociological and demographic change
- Factors such as decreasing the family size. This trend change the size preference for
homes, apartments and automobile
4. Technological change
- Technological change makes everything possible from smartphones to artificial hearts.
5. Political change/legal change
- political/ legal changes bring about new trade agreement, tariffs and government contract
requirements.
6. Other change
- Market practice, competitors, professionals standard, suppliers, distributors.
1. Reasons why a domestic business operation will decide to change some form its
international operation. (Why is local business globalised?)
i. Reduce costs
· Foreign locations with lower wage rates can lower direct (labour cost) and
indirect costs (insurance).
· Opportunities to cut the costs of taxes, tariffs, trade agreements & trading
group. (less government rules)
ii. Improve the Supply Chain (deliver faster, transportation cost lower)
· The result of local presence permits firms to customize goods and services to
meet unique cultural needs in foreign markets improve understanding of
differences in culture and the way business is handled in different countries.
· Global operations may add production flexibility so goods and services can
be switched between booming economies and those are not.
· Firms serve themselves and their customers well when they remain open to
the free flow of ideas.
· Global firms can recruit and retain good employees as they offer better
growth opportunities and insulation (protection) against unemployment during
times of economic downturn.
i. Reality of global competition –World is getting smaller. For every industry, firms need
to compete globally.
Companies all over the globe are aggressively exporting their products and service to
other countries to share up profits partly because of increased competition at home
- International companies = those whose scope of operations spans the globe as they buy,
produce and sell in the world markets. Companies are shifting the headquarters of whole
business units to forieng countries relatively unencumbered by national boundaries to
increase profits
- Strategic alliance and production sharing = companies formed strategic alliance and
production sharing to achieve high quality and least-cost produce
- Fluctuation of international financial conditions = inflation, fluctuating currency
exchange rate, turbulent interest rates and enormous trade balances have created complex
financial conditions for global businesses
ii. Quality, customer service, and cost challenges –Availability of information particularly
on what other firms are offering has enabled the customer to demand for better quality, price and
customer service.
- Many companies adopt Total Quality Management (TQM) to focus in customer’s needs
and structure the organisation to deliver on those needs
- Many firms implement the JIT manufacturing to reduce inventory costs. To reduce cost,
most firms focused on labour rates …..
iv. Continued growth of the U.S. service sector -The growth of need for the service sector
in the US provides employment opportunities for other countries. Setting up a service call center
in India.
v. Scarcity of production resources -Scarcity of coal and crude oil will further increase
price and this will affect business cost of operations.
i. Introduction stage
· In this stage, sales begin, production and marketing are developing and
profits are negative
· concern for increasing the stability of the manufacturing process and cost
cut-ting;
· The issue involve pruning the line to eliminate items not returning good
margin becomes important.
· The product may be dropped by the firm or replaced by improved
products.
During the induction stage, issues such as product design and development are critical. In this
stage, sales begin, production and marketing are developing and profits are negatives
Growth stage
Successful products move on to the growth stage when sales grow dramatically, marketing
efforts intensify, production concentrates on expanding capacity fast enough to keep up with
demand and profit begins. In this stage, the focus on change to product and process reliability.
Maturity stage
From there we move to the maturity stage where concern is for increasing the stability of the
manufacturing process and cost cutting. The production concentrated in high volume production,
efficiency and low cost. Marketing shifts to competitive sales promotion aimed at increasing or
maintaining market share. Profits are at their peak.
Decline stage
Finally in the decline stage, profit and sales decline. The issue involve pruning the line to
eliminate items not returning good margin becomes important. Eventually the product may be
dropped by the form or replaced by improved products.
Advantages of globalisation PG 23
Disadvantages of globalisation
Managing global service operations
1. Capacity planning- form must do a good job of locating existing support facilities, transportation,
personnel, communication system and housing
2. Location planning- good location strategies provide barries to entry and competitive positioning
for service as well as generate additional demand
3. Facilities design and layout scheduling-
4. Scheduling
Demand option
i. Influencing demand
• Use advertising or promotion to increase demand in low periods
• Attempt to shift demand to slow periods
• Change prices to balance demand and capacity
• Change other factors to influence demand
ii. Back ordering (accepting orders for goods but unable to fill at the moment) during
high- demand periods
• Requires customers to wait for an order without loss of goodwill or the order
iii. Counter-seasonal product and service mixing
• Develop a product mix of counter-seasonal items
• used in conjunction with inventory, backlog, overtime, part time labor, or subcontracting
• Daily production is uniform
• Use inventory or idle time as buffer
• Stable production leads to better quality and productivity
Forward scheduling
Forward scheduling start as soon as the requirement are know (hospital, restaurant, clinics)
Produces a feasible schedule through it may not meet due dates (delivery schedule at earliest possible
date)
Frequently results in buildup of work-in-process inventory
The hospital also using the forward scheduling to broke the date so the staff of hospital will have
a easy of scheduling on the surgery/ operation
Backward scheduling
Backward scheduling begins with the due date and schedules the final operation first
Schedule is produced by working backward through the process
Resources may not be available to accomplish the schedule
In this backward scheduling all things is very busy up-front, everything is emergence look for the due
date work
Eg
Student know that the assignment due date is 2 weeks before and it may take 1 weeks to complete the
assignment so students can plan to start to do the assignment one week before the due date
Difference between scheduling manufacturing system and from
scheduling service system
Manufacturing Service
Eg
- adjust staffing
-
-
Chapter 13 managing quality
https://notesmatic.com/2020/03/garvins-eight-dimensions-of-quality-with-examples/
Product quality
- Performance = the ability to perform the task expected from it
- Features = attributes that supplement the product’s basic performance
- Reliability = product’s propensity to perform consistently over the product’s useful life
- Conformance = adherence to quantifiable specifications
- Durability = ability to tolerate stress or trauma without failing
- Serviceability = the ease and low cost of repair for a product
- Aesthetics= degree to which product attributes are match to customer preference
- Perceived quality= quality as the customer perceive ot created through image,
recognition or world-of-mouth
- Value = the value of money for the customer
Service quality
- Reliability = consistency of performance and dependability
- Responsiveness = willingness or readiness of employee
- Competence = required skills and knowledge. Which means possession of the required
skill and knowledge to perform the service. For example, able to explain to customer with
appropriate answer
- Access = approachability and ease of contact
- Courtesy = politeness, respect, consideration, friendliness
- Communication= keeping customer informed
- Credibility = trustworthiness, believability, honesty
- Security= freedom from danger, risk or doubt
- Understanding / knowing customer needs = understand the customer’s need
- Tangible = physical evidence of the service
service
Past Year Case Study (sample) (Jan 2018)
Berjaya Hotels & Resorts Sdn. Bhd. (BHR), the hospitality arm of the Berjaya Group, is
preparing to launch a new chain of niche hotels that is expected to yield larger profit margins.
The first of these hotels, known as The Living Room (TLR), is slated to open by the end of next
year. TLR’s concept is different from conventional hotels that place an emphasis on in-house
restaurants, tiered room types and wide open spaces to project luxury.
That conventional approach is inefficient and wastes much space, says BHR CEO Hanley Chew,
a hospitality veteran with over 25 years of experience. BHR is a unit of Berjaya Land Bhd.
(Bland). “Conventional hotels with huge chandeliers, thick cupboards and high ceilings are
probably not going to be there for too long, because the needs of guests today are very, very
different,” Chew tells The Edge. In contrast, TLR will focus on maximising the utilisation of
space and offering guests more flexibility. Specifically, it will target a growing group of
corporate travellers, especially millennials, who travel with their families.“The (millennials) are
not looking for very luxurious offerings but something very practical, convenient and flexible,”
says Chew. “They do not want to be told that breakfast ends at 10 o’clock or that 12 o’clock is
the check-out time”. TLR will offer about 200 rooms of 25 sq m each, with identical layouts.
Each room will come with a full-sized bed that becomes a table when folded, providing guests
with more space. More importantly, each room will be able to accommodate four guests, thanks
to a sofa that can be transformed into a double-decker bed. Guests would also have the flexibility
of checking in and out any time of the day or night, says Chew.
3
Other differentiating factors are TLR will not have the usual front desk, in-house food and
beverage (F&B) operations and spacious lobby. Instead, BHR plans to have a Starbucks
outlet at each hotel to function as a check-in spot, and guests will be given Starbucks credit to
spend at the coffee house. Starbucks will also meet the catering needs of corporate events and
meetings held in the hotels. BHR will not be aiming for specific star ratings, the accommodation
will be benchmarked against four-star hotels in terms of furnishings and other materials. The
margins are expected to be fatter, Chew says BHR is targeting an operating profit margin of 55%
for TLR compared with 28% to 35% for a typical hotel. In term of workforce, Chew plans to hire
part-time workers, particularly non-working mothers who have idle hours between family
commitments and institute four-hour shifts, half the normal shift cycle in many hotels. TLR’s
ideal mix of staff would be 60% core full-time staff and 40% part-timers. This 60% will be able
to make all the beds. They will be trained to handle work in all areas of the
hotel.
Question 1 (Continued)
Source: Adapted from The Edge Malaysia , Business & Investment Weekly July 31- August
6, 2017, Berjaya Hotels breaks new ground to unlock fatter margins. Required:
(a) Based on the case above, what is the competitive strategy used by BHR to compete with its
conventional hotels and explain its implementation? (12 marks)
(b) Explain benchmarking principles and how it is apply in BHR’s case study? (8 marks)
(c) Compute labour productivity for the given scenarios, if one junior full-time staff make up 21
beds and begin paid daily wages of RM60 as compared to one senior full-time staff make up 26
beds and begin paid daily wages of RM84.
Compute both the productivity and explain which staff is more productive. (Round your
answer to nearest two decimals) (6 marks)
(d) Given that the operating profit margin targeted at 55% for the first year, based on Naïve
approach in forecasting, what will be the operating profit margin for the next following year?
(2 marks)quality
(e) Discuss what are the determinants of service quality should BHR provides in this new TLR
concepts based on Total Quality Management (TQM) view points. (12 marks)
[Total: 40 marks]
1. Factors That Affect Location Decisions (five-10m) PG 110
i. Labor productivity
· Employees with poor training/education/work habits may not good choice even low
wages.
· The value of foreign currencies continually rise and fall in most countries could well
make a good location decisions in 2003- disastrous one in 2008
iii. Costs
· Tangible costs - easily measured costs such as utilities, labor, materials, taxes
· Intangible costs - less easy to quantify and include education, public transportation,
community, quality-of-life
· National, state, local governments attitudes toward private and intellectual property,
zoning, pollution, employment stability may be in flux (many incoming)
· Worker attitudes towards turnover, unions, absenteeism can affect a company’s decision
· JIT system may be more easily accomplished when suppliers are clustered near the
customer
· Firm locate near their raw material and suppliers because of Perishable goods (Bakeries,
frozen seafood processors), high transportation costs (steel producers close to coal & ore
suppliers), bulky products (lumber mills close to timber resources)