moving average find the 13months

five month moving average 7th period moving average

month actual shed sales forecast month sales forecast

1 10 1 11000
2 12 2 14000
3 13 3 16000
4 16 4 10000
5 19 5 15000
6 23 14.00 6 17000
7 26 16.60 7 11000
8 30 19.40 8 14000
9 28 22.80 9 17000
10 18 25.20 10 12000
11 16 25.00 11 14000
12 14 23.60 12 16000
1 28 21.20 1 11000
2 20.80 2 13571.43
Weighted Moving Average

5 moving average

weights applied period month actual shed sales

forecast year
0.45 last month 1 10 1
0.25 two months ago 2 12 2
0.15 three months ago 3 13 3
0.1 four months ago 4 16 4
0.05 five months ago 5 19
lates to current ang use nito 6 23 16.20
if you want to lock put dollar sign sa ilolock 7 26 19.40 weights applied
8 30 22.55 0.6
9 28 26.15 0.3
10 18 27.25 0.1
11 16 23.35
12 14 20.20 month
1 28 17.30 1
2 21.70 2
3
3 moving average 4
5
6
weights applied period month sales forecast 7
0.6 last month 1 11000
0.25 two months ago 2 14000
0.15 three months ago 3 16000
4 10000 r
5 15000 Four years
6 17000 Three year
7 11000 Two years
8 14000 Last year
9 17000
10 12000
11 14000
12 16000
1 11000
2 ###
 actual shed sales forecast
3000
2800
2200
2000 2460
2140
2540
eights applied

actual shed sales forecast

120
93
100 PREDICTED DEMAND
75 Period Demand F1
100 1 68 60
50 2 75 71
81.25 3 70 75
4 74 69
5 69 71
6 72 66
Enrollment 7 80 72
2000 8 78 73
2200
2800
3000
2666.67
PREDICTED DEMAND
Error ABS Error
8 8 64 11.76471
4 4 16 5.333333
-5 5 25 7.142857
5 5 25 6.756757
-2 2 4 2.898551
6 6 36 8.333333
8 8 64 10
5 5 25 6.410256
58.63979
Exponential Smoothing

20000 20000 21000 0.4

seasonal relatives SEASONAL AVERAGE

simple ave method

quarter year1 year2 year3 year4 quarter ave quarter relatives

1 22 12 18 18 17.5 0.8917197452229
2 20 18 18 14 17.5 0.8917197452229
3 26 22 12 16 19 0.968152866242
4 28 16 26 28 24.5 1.2484076433121
78.5 4

ave of quarter of averages = 19.625

19.625

63.33 110 1.736933522817

150 2.3685457129323
160 2.5264487604611
 MAD, MSE and MAPE

QUARTER ACTUAL FORECAST1 FORECAST2

1 245 243 244
2 260 266 256
3 255 250 249
4 270 282 271
5 240 252 242

determine whos better between forecasy 1 & 2

QUARTER ACTUAL FORECAST1 error [error] [error]^2

1 245 243 2 2 4
2 260 266 -6 6 36
3 255 250 5 5 25
4 270 282 -12 12 144
5 240 252 -12 12 144
sum 37 353
n or n-1 5 4
MAD MSE
7.4 88.25

QUARTER ACTUAL FORECAST2 error [error] [error]^2

1 245 244 1 1 1
2 260 256 4 4 16
3 255 249 6 6 36
4 270 271 -1 1 1
5 240 242 -2 2 4
sum 14 58
n or n-1 5 4
MAD MSE
2.8 14.5

THE LOWER THE BETTER MAD,MSE and MAPE

25 24 -1
30 31 1
26 27 1
31 29 -2
22 25 3

PREDICTED DEMAND
Period Demand FORECAST1 error [error] [error]^2
 1 68 66 2 2 4
2 75 68 7 7 49
3 70 72 -2 2 4
4 74 71 3 3 9
5 69 72 -3 3 9
6 72 70 2 2 4
7 80 71 9 9 81
8 78 74 4 4 16
SUM 32 176
n or n-1 5 4
MAD MSE
6.4 44

PREDICTED DEMAND
Period Demand FORECAST2 error [error] [error]^2
1 68 66 2 2 4
2 75 68 7 7 49
3 70 70 0 0 0
4 74 72 2 2 4
5 69 74 -5 5 25
6 72 76 -4 4 16
7 80 78 2 2 4
8 78 80 -2 2 4
SUM 24 106
n or n-1 5 4
MAD MSE
4.8 26.5
([error]/actual)*100
0.816326530612245
2.30769230769231
1.96078431372549
4.44444444444444
5
14.5292475964745
5
MAPE
2.9058495192949

([error]/actual)*100
0.408163265306122
1.53846153846154
2.35294117647059
0.37037037037037
0.833333333333333
5.50326968394195
5
MAPE
1.10065393678839

1 1
1 1
1 1
2 4
3 9
16

([error]/actual)*100
2.94117647058823
9.33333333333333
2.85714285714286
4.05405405405405
4.34782608695652
2.77777777777778
11.25
5.12820512820513
42.6895157080579
5
MAPE
8.53790314161158

([error]/actual)*100
2.94117647058823
9.33333333333333
0
2.7027027027027
7.2463768115942
5.55555555555556
2.5
2.56410256410256
32.8432474378766
5
MAPE
6.56864948757532