Q1.

Analyze impacts of the Covid 19 pandemic on the World trade in

2020
- Merchandise trade
All regions recorded declines in merchandise trade in 2020. Trade in nominal US
dollar terms fell more sharply than trade in volume terms. The impact of the
pandemic on merchandise trade differed across regions.
World exports of manufactured goods decreased by 5.2 per cent in 2020 while
total merchandise exports declined by 7.7 per cent overall.
World exports of automotive products were the most affected, among
manufactured goods, by the pandemic while textiles saw a strong increase
Trade in medical goods registered growth of 16.3 per cent in 2020 - compared
with 4.7 per cent growth in 2019 when the pandemic was just starting.
After three successive negative quarters, world exports of intermediate goods rose
by 8.5 per cent year-on-year in Q4 of 2020, a sign of strong recovery in supply
chains.
- Commercial services
Travel and transport were the hardest hit by COVID-19 and associated travel
restrictions.
Other commercial services were affected unevenly by the pandemic. Sectors
requiring physical proximity, such as construction, and personal, cultural and
recreational services, fell steeply. Financial services, in contrast, continued to
grow.
Exports of computer services saw double-digit growth in many economies across
various regions in 2020. Rapid growth was recorded in most economies, in marked
contrast with declines in other services sectors.
- Signal
The recovery of merchandise trade since the third quarter of 2020 has been strong
but uneven, with exports and imports growing faster in some regions than in
others.
The post-pandemic trade recovery is already showing signs of divergence across
countries and regions. Merchandise export and import volumes in the first quarter
of 2021 rose to new heights in Asia and reverted to pre-pandemic levels in Europe
and North America but lagged behind in poorer, less industrialized regions, such as
Africa and the Middle East.
- LDCs
LDCs’ exports of goods amounted to US$ 173 billion in 2020, a 12 per cent
decrease from 2019, while LDC commercial services exports totalled US$ 28
billion, collapsing by 35 per cent. Goods exports suffered particularly from a 30
per cent drop in fuel prices, with fuels and mining products representing around
half of LDCs’ merchandise exports. In services, LDCs were hit by travel
restrictions, with travel receipts representing the largest source of services export
earnings for LDCs.

Q2. Analyze impacts of the Covid 19 pandemic on Vietnamese trade?

Answer:
- About exporting.

Thanks to its effectiveness in anti-epidemic work and the implementation of

solutions to remove difficulties, take advantage of new-generation free trade
agreements, results of international trade activities for agricultural, forestry and
fishery products of Vietnam still achieving many remarkable achievements.
Such as: There are 3 agricultural and aquatic products with an increase in exports
compared to the previous year: rice reached 6.25 million VND tons, turnover
reached 3.12 billion USD, down 1.9% in volume but up 11.2% in turnover thanks
to export prices increased sharply; Meanwhile, cassava and rubber increased
mainly due to export volume get a raise.
- About importing

Imports are not severely affected by the epidemic because the disease is effectively
controlled and production can meet domestic consumption demand.
+ Soybean:
The weather is favorable, the situation of pests and diseases is controlled relatively
effectively, winter-Spring crops, including soybean, are in the reproductive stage
grow and develop well. However, due to the small, scattered and non-scale
production scale, specialized image – focus, soybean production in the country is
only enough to meet about 8-10% of consumption demand, soybeans importing
increased by 11.1% in volume and 14.8% in turnover compared to 2019.
+ Animal feed

With the growth rate of the livestock industry in Vietnam over the past time, while
the domestic source of homemade feed materials (rice bran, broken, cassava, corn,
etc.) is not enough to meet the demand. Import turnover of animal feed of Vietnam
in 2020 reached 3.84 billion USD up 3.7% compared to 2019.

Q3. Analyze the positive factors of CPTPP on Vietnamese export

The positive factors of CPTPP on Vietnamese export:

-New market:
+ In Vietnam's new markets in the CPTPP (Canada, Mexico and Peru), the first
year export turnover growth rate is very impressive, in the range of 26%-36%.
+ promote bilateral trade with markets where the CPTPP has not yet taken effect,
such as Peru and Chile.

+Vietnam's exports still record a certain growth rate in new markets and are
considered to be very positive in the context of total imports of CTPPP partners.

- Tariff elimination:
+In some CPTPP markets, the importing country was maintaining 0% MFN tax on
a significant proportion of tariff lines at the time of CPTPP's entry into force (for
example, Canada's MFN Tariff has 57.58% tariff lines). is 0%). Thus, with these
markets, many types of goods can already enjoy 0% tax without having to apply
for a certificate of origin to enjoy incentives under the CPTPP. Therefore, the
proportion of goods applying for CPTPP certification of origin in this market
calculated on the total natural turnover will be lower.
+ CPTPP markets with which Vietnam has shared one or more FTAs before (01
FTA with Australia and New Zealand; 02 FTAs with Japan; and 07 FTAs with
Singapore), the rate of taking advantage of preferential tariffs with other markets.
This should be combined with the percentages of all existing FTAs, not looking at
each FTA

-+Unlike all previous FTAs, in the CPTPP, the self-certification mechanism allows
both exporters, importers and manufacturers to self-certify origin.

- ability to penetrate difficult market

+ In order for the opportunities from the CPTPP to help Vietnam's investment
proactively solve outstanding problems and enhance its competitiveness so that it
can improve and increase exports and investment to the Australian market, take
full advantage of the opportunity. fully utilize the benefits from the CPTPP and
existing and future FTAs between Vietnam and Australia.
Q4. Analyze the risks faced by Vietnamese firms under the CPTPP context?
Answer:
- CPTPP stands for Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-
Pacific Partnership.
- CPTPP is a new generation free trade agreement (FTA).
- CPTPP includes 11 countries such as Viet Nam, Japan, Canada, Australia
and others...
- The risks faced by Vietnamese firms under the CPTPP context:
+ 3/4 of businesses have never received specific benefits from the CPTPP
even though this Agreement has come into force since the beginning of
2019. The reason cited by approximately 60% of enterprises is that they did
not have any business activities related to markets or partners in CPTPP
 countries during these two years. Besides, there are also limitations in
capacity of the business itself. In the end, it's because they don't know how
beneficial the CPTPP is for their business.
+ Damages businesses face due to CPTPP:
 From a competition perspective, the most common is damage caused
by enterprises' products having to compete more fiercely with
imported goods enjoying preferential treatment from the CPTPP.
 From the perspective of compliance costs, the main concern lies in the
additional costs of getting ready for high-standard commitments on
intellectual property, labor, and environment in the CPTPP.
 It can be seen that the number of businesses that have suffered
damage from the CPTPP so far is very rare, and these businesses
themselves can still benefit from the CPTPP in other respects.
However, this fact also confirms that the CPTPP is not only full of
positive effects, and the more small a business is, the more
complicated the risk is.

Q5. To what extent Vietnamese firms know about the CPTPP?

Answer:
- CPTPP stands for Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific
Partnership.
- CPTPP is a new generation free trade agreement (FTA).
- CPTPP includes 11 countries such as Viet Nam, Japan, Canada, Australia and
others...
* To extent Vietnamese firms know about the CPTPP.
- CPTPP is the most well-known FTA of enterprises in Vietnam, with 69% of
enterprises having heard or preliminary knowledge.
- At a deeper level, 1 out of 5 businesses has a certain understanding of CPTPP
commitments. However, only 1 out of 20 enterprises knows about CPTPP
commitments related to their business activities
- In the comparison between business groups, the survey results show that the level
of understanding about CPTPP among business groups, although not completely
equal, is not too far apart. Specifically, enterprises with foreign elements have the
highest rate of knowledge about CPTPP (29.7%), followed by enterprises with
100% state capital (27.3%). The private enterprises in the group that know the least
about CPTPP also achieved 22.6%.
* Reason:
- Issues that have only indirect and long-term effects on specific businesses
- The direct tariff benefits of the CPTPP are largely confined to new markets.
- The rules of origin of this Agreement are more complicated
- CPTPP is a very new agreement, and commitments on tax incentives in the early
stages are not attractive enough.

Q6. Analyze effects of CPTPP on FDI flows to Vietnam.

Theo Bộ Kế hoạch và Đầu tư, trong năm 2019, Việt Nam thu hút xấp xỉ 9,5 tỷ
USD vốn đầu tư từ các nước CPTPP, giảm gần 36% so với năm 2018. Trong đó:
Vốn đăng kÝ cấp mới khoảng 4,05 tỷ USD, giảm 51,3% so với năm 2018; Vốn
đăng kÝ tăng thêm là hơn 1,6 tỷ USD, giảm 50,6% so với năm 2018; Giá trị góp
vốn mua cổ phần đạt 4,4 tỷ USD, tăng 36,5% USD so với năm 2018. Đáng chú Ý
là trong khi tổng số vốn đăng kÝ giảm, số dự án cấp mới lại tăng hơn 13% so với
năm 2018. Quy mô trung bình các dự án FDI mới từ các nước CPTPP giảm mạnh
trong năm 2019 so với trước đó, từ gần 11 triệu USD/dự án năm 2018 giảm xuống
còn khoảng 4,7 triệu USD/dự án năm 2019 (giảm 56,9%).
Xét theo từng đối tác, đầu tư từ Nhật Bản vào Việt Nam có mức giảm sâu nhất về
giá trị (từ gần 9 tỷ USD năm 2018 giảm xuống còn hơn 4 tỷ USD năm 2019, tương
đương 52%4 ). Về tốc độ, vốn FDI giảm mạnh từ các nguồn truyền thống như
Australia (giảm gần 63%), Malaysia (giảm 50%)
Trên thực tế, thời gian đầu thực thi CPTPP cũng là khoảng thời gian mà dòng vốn
đầu tư nước ngoài trên thế giới nói chung và ở Việt Nam nói riêng có chuyển động
mạnh dưới tác động của hai xu hướng (1) Gia tăng đầu tư trở lại sau một thời gian
trầm lắng quan sát các diễn biến căng thẳng thương mại Mỹ-Trung năm 2019; và
(2) Dịch chuyển sản xuất nhằm đa dạng hóa chuỗi cung ứng, tránh phụ thuộc quá
lớn vào một thị trường dưới tác động của dịch COVID-19. Ở cả hai xu hướng này,
dòng đầu tư nước ngoài trên thế giới được cho là sẽ gia tăng, đặc biệt là ở các khu
vực Đông Á, Đông Nam Á, trong đó có Việt Nam. CPTPP được đánh giá là một
tác nhân thuận lợi cho quá trình thu hút dòng FDI này. Tuy nhiên, kết quả thu hút
đầu tư nước ngoài trong thời gian này dường như chưa phản ánh xu hướng nói
trên. Và vì vậy có nhiều vấn đề được nhận diện từ thực tế bất ngờ này
So với bức tranh ảm đạm của 2019, kết quả thu hút đầu tư từ các đối tác CPTPP
năm 2020 dường như khả quan hơn. Theo số liệu của Bộ Kế hoạch và Đầu tư, tổng
vốn đầu tư nước ngoài vào Việt Nam năm 2020 đạt 28,5 tỷ USD, giảm gần 25% so
với cùng kỳ năm 2019. Trong khi đó, vốn FDI từ các đối tác CPTPP cùng giai
đoạn đạt 11,8 tỷ USD, tăng 24,4% so với cùng kỳ . Tất nhiên, nhiều Ý kiến chuyên
gia cũng chỉ ra rằng sự gia tăng của vốn FDI từ CPTPP năm 2020 dường như đang
bị thổi phồng do đặt trong so sánh với con số giảm sâu của năm 2019, do đó cần có
cái nhìn lạc quan một cách thận trọng về kết quả này. Mặc dù vậy, có một thực tế
đã được nhiều chuyên gia nhấn mạnh, CPTPP và các FTA đang góp phần tạo ra
sức hấp dẫn riêng của Việt Nam trong thu hút nguồn vốn FDI chuyển dịch từ
Trung Quốc dưới ảnh hưởng của dịch COVID-19.