Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Feb 697 700 793 861 1032

Mar 776 774 885 938 1126
Apr 898 932 1055 1109 1285
May 1030 1099 1204 1274 1468
Jun 1107 1223 1326 1422 1637
Jul 1165 1290 1303 1486 1611
Aug 1216 1349 1436 1555 1608
Sep 1208 1341 1473 1604 1528
Oct 1131 1296 1453 1600 1420
Nov 971 1066 1170 1403 1119
Dec 783 901 1023 1209 1013
 Cost Data avaliable for cocoa
powder
Holding cost (% of the cost/year 40%
Ordering cost (INR/order) 1000
Quantity in Kg Price(INR/Kg)
1 to 2000 120.3
2001 to 4000 120.2
4001 to 6000 120.1
Above 6000 120

Cost Data avaliable for cocoa

butter
Holding cost (% of the cost/year 30%
Ordering cost (INR/order) 1200
Quantity in Kg Price(INR/Kg)
1 to 1000 72.06
1001 to 2000 72.05
2001 to 3000 72.03
Above 3000 72.02

Cost Data avaliable for dark

chocolate
Holding cost (% of the cost/year 35%
Ordering cost (INR/order) 800
Quantity in Kg Price(INR/Kg)
1 to 1250 105.3
1251 to 2500 105.3
2501 to 3570 105.25
Above3750 105.2

Cost Data avaliable for dry fruits

and nuts
Holding cost (% of the cost/year 25%
Ordering cost (INR/order) 2100
Quantity in Kg Price(INR/Kg)
1 to 2500 90
2501 to 5000 90.2
5001 to 7500 90.15
Above 7500 90.1
 Calculate quaterly sa

Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Quarter 2006 2007

Jan 742 741 896 951 1030 I 2215 2215
Feb 697 700 793 861 1032 II 3035 3254
Mar 776 774 885 938 1126 III 3589 3980
Apr 898 932 1055 1109 1285 IV 2885 3263
May 1030 1099 1204 1274 1468 Sum 11724 12712
Jun 1107 1223 1326 1422 1637
Jul 1165 1290 1303 1486 1611
Aug 1216 1349 1436 1555 1608
Sep 1208 1341 1473 1604 1528 Year Period(x) Sales (y)
Oct 1131 1296 1453 1600 1420 2006 1 11724
Nov 971 1066 1170 1403 1119 2007 2 12712
Dec 783 901 1023 1209 1013 2008 3 14017
2009 4 15412
2010 5 15877
Demand Pattern 2006 to 2010 2011 6
1800
1600
1400
1200 seasonal 2011
Quarter
1000 factor Forecasr
800
600 I 0.18557 17250.2
400 II 0.259083 17250.2
200
0 III 0.30359 17250.2
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
IV 0.251756 17250.2
Column B Column C Column D Sum
Column E Column F
Calculate quaterly sales
Seasonal
forecasting
2008 2009 2010 Sum factor
2574 2750 3188 12942 0.185569671073
3585 3805 4390 18069 0.259083479109
4212 4645 4747 21173 0.303590375957
3646 4212 3552 17558 0.251756473861
14017 15412 15877 69742 1

Y= a+bx
Total Demand 69742
Predicted sales Time period 5
11747.2 11747.2 Standard deviatio 264 SUMMARY OUTPUT
12847.8 12847.8 264.2019
13948.4 13948.4 mean 1162.367 1162
Regression Statistics
15049 15049 264.2019 Multiple R 0.990649
16149.6 16149.6 R Square 0.981385
17250.2 17250.2 Adjusted R Squ 0.97518
Standard Error 276.7463
SUMMARY OUTPUObservations 5
seasonal factor
*2011 forecast
3201.11393995 Regression StatisticsANOVA
4469.24183132 Multiple R df
5236.99470334 R Square Regression 1
4342.84952539 Adjusted R SquareResidual 3
17250.2 Standard Error Total 4
Observations
Coefficient
ANOVA Intercept 10646.6
X Variable 1 1100.6
Regression
Residual
Total

CoefficientsStandard Error
Intercept 10646.6 290.254
Period(x) 1100.6 87.51487
 SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.990649
R Square 0.981385
Adjusted R Square 0.97518
Standard Error 276.7463
Observations 5

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 12113204 12113204 158.1595 0.001084
Residual 3 229765.6 76588.53
Total 4 12342969

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%
SS MS Intercept 10646.6 290.254 36.68029 4.457E-05 9722.882 11570.32
12113204 12113204 Period(x) 1100.6 87.51487 12.57615 0.001084 822.0886 1379.111
229765.6 76588.53
12342969

Standard Et Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95. Upper 95.0%

290.254 36.68029 4.456683255547E-05 9722.882 11570.32 9722.882 11570.32
87.51487 12.57615 0.001084001382954 822.0886 1379.111 822.0886 1379.111

t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
36.68029 4.457E-05 9722.88221831585 11570.32 9722.882 11570.32
12.57615 0.001084 822.088609634023 1379.111 822.0886 1379.111
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
9722.882 11570.32
822.0886 1379.111
Safety Stock (SS) Z*SDADLT SDADLT

Total Demand 69742 5 13948.4

13948.4 12 1162.367

Standard deviation of monthly demand 264.2019 264

Lead time (days) 15
Lead time (months) 0.5
Average demand during LT (ADLT) 581.1833 demand * LT

SDADLT Std Deviation of montly demand * Square root of LT month

SDADLT 186.6762

Safety stock 307.0823 Z*SDALT

service level 0.95
z value 1.645

Re order level
ROL ADLT+SS
888.2657
ROL 888
 Standard deviation demand during lead time

Average demand (yearly)

Average demand (monthly)

demand * Square root of LT months

S&D EOQ
Carrying Cost 2.5% per month per carton
Cost per carton 1200 per carton (Rs)
Ordering Cost (S) 8000 INR Demand
12
Carrying cost (H) 360

EOQ 766666.7 875.595035770913 carying cost

875.595 SS
EOQ (Q*) 875 437.5
no of order cycles D/Q* 19.7142857142857
cycle ime Q*/D 0.0507246376811594

annual stock holding cost+ safety

Total Annual stock holding cost + annual
Inventory cost ordering cost

Q*/2 X H + SS X CC+ D/Q* X S

17250

360
360 holding cost (S) 8000
307

annual ordering cost 157500 Q*/2 X H

safety stock holding unit 110520 SS X CC

annual ordering cost 157714.285714 D/Q* X S
Total cost 425734.285714
forecasted demand (no of cartons) 17250

Per Carton (no of bags) 100

Per bag (no of bars) 20 34500000 34500000
Seven star (weight gm) 30
Seven star (weight kg) 1000

Cocoa powder Cocoa Butter Dark Chocolate

5.1 6.2 7.8
Total bars 34500000
Quantity in (gm) * total bars 175950000 213900000 269100000
Quantity in (kg) 175950 213900 269100
dry fruits and nuts
4

138000000
138000
Cost Data avaliable for cocoa powder
Holding cost (% of the cost/year 40% Demand Order Cost (S)
Ordering cost (INR/order) 1000 175950 1000
Quantity in Kg Price(INR/Kg) 175950 1000
1 to 2000 120.3 175950 1000
2001 to 4000 120.2 175950 1000
4001 to 6000 120.1
Above 6000 120

Cost Data avaliable for cocoa butter

Demand Order Cost (S)
Holding cost (% of the cost/year 30% 213900 1200
Ordering cost (INR/order) 1200 213900 1200
Quantity in Kg Price(INR/Kg) 213900 1200
1 to 1000 72.06 213900 1200
1001 to 2000 72.05
2001 to 3000 72.03
Above 3000 72.02

Demand Order Cost (S)

Cost Data avaliable for dark chocolate
269100 800
Holding cost (% of the cost/year 35% 269100 800
Ordering cost (INR/order) 800 269100 800
Quantity in Kg Price(INR/Kg) 269100 800
1 to 1250 105.3
1251 to 2500 105.3
2501 to 3570 105.25
Above3750 105.2

Cost Data avaliable for dry fruits and Demand Order Cost (S)
nuts 138000 2100
Holding cost (% of the cost/year 25% 138000 2100
Ordering cost (INR/order) 2100 138000 2100
Quantity in Kg Price(INR/Kg) 138000 2100
1 to 2500 90
2501 to 5000 90.2
5001 to 7500 90.15
Above 7500 90.1
Quantity Range Unit cost Carrying cost EOQ* Feasible (FQ**) Purchase cost
1 to 2000 120.3 48.12 7312967.581 2704.249911 1 21166785
2001 to 4000 120.2 48.08 7319051.581 2705.374573 2705.374573086 21149190
4001 to 6000 120.1 48.04 7325145.712 2706.50064 4001 21131595
Above 6000 120 48 7331250 2707.628113 6000 21114000

``3

Quantity Range Unit cost Carrying cost EOQ* Feasible (FQ**) Purchase cost
1 to 1000 72.06 21.618 23746877.6 4873.076811 1 15413634
1001 to 2000 72.05 21.615 23750173.49 4873.414972 1001 15411495
2001 to 3000 72.03 21.609 23756768.01 4874.091506 2001 15407217
Above 3000 72.02 21.606 23760066.65 4874.429879 4874.429879294 15405078

Quantity Range Unit cost Carrying cost EOQ* Feasible (FQ**) Purchase cost
1 to 1250 105.3 36.855 11682539.68 3417.9730 1 28336230
1251 to 2500 105.3 36.855 11682539.68 3417.9730 1251.0000 28336230
2501 to 3750 105.25 36.8375 11688089.58 3418.7848 3418.78481081 28322775
Above3750 105.2 36.82 11693644.76 3419.5972 3751 28309320

Quantity Range Unit cost Carrying cost EOQ* Feasible (FQ**) Purchase cost
1 to 2500 90 22.5 25760000 5075.431016 1 12420000
2501 to 5000 90.2 22.55 25702882.48 5069.80103 2501 12447600
5001 to 7500 90.15 22.5375 25717138.1 5071.20677 5071.2068 12440700
Above 7500 90.1 22.525 25731409.54 5072.61368 7501 12433800
Holding cost Ordering cost Variable cost Total cost Purchase cost
24.06 175950000 175950024.06 197116809.06 21271675.5 Holding cost
65037.20474 65037.20473698 130074.409474 21279264.4095 Ordering cost
96104.02 43976.50587353 140080.525874 21271675.5259 Variable cost
144000 29325 173325 21287325

Holding cost Ordering cost Variable cost Total cost

10.809 256680000 256680010.809 272093645
10818.3075 256423.5764236 267241.883924 15678737 15510395
21619.8045 128275.862069 149895.666569 15557113
52658.46599 52658.46598601 105316.931972 15510395

Holding cost Ordering cost Variable cost Total cost

18.4275 215280000 215280018.428 243616248 28435769
23052.8025 172086.3309353 195139.133435 28531369
62969.74273 62969.74273411 125939.485468 28448714
69055.91 57392.69528126 126448.605281 28435769

Holding cost Ordering cost Variable cost Total cost

11.25 289800000 289800011.25 302220011.25
28198.775 115873.6505398 144072.42554 12591672.4255 12554992.3
57146.16163 57146.1609493 114292.322577 12554992.3226
84480.0125 38634.84868684 123114.861187 12556914.8612
Demand X Unit Cost
FQ* X carrying cost/2
(D/FQ) X S
Holding cost +ordering cost