Nama : Femi Lilianti Prastika Jansen

NIM : 55112120121
TUGAS : FORUM HAL. 146-153 4.6 dan 4.50

1. HAL 146-153 4.6

The monthly sales for Yazici Batteries, Inc., were as follows :

a) Plot the monthly sales data.

b) Forecast January sales using each of the following :
o Naive method
o A 3-month moving average.
o A 6-month weighted average using .1, .1, .1, .2, .2, and .3, with the heaviest weights
applied to the most recent months.
o Exponential smoothing using an a = .3 and a September forecast of 18.
o A trend projection.

c) With the data given, which method would allow you to forecast next March’s sales?
2. Page 146-153 4.50
City government has collected the following data on annual sales tax collections and new car
registrations :

Determine the following :

a) The least-squares regression equation.
b) Using the results of part (a), find the estimated sales tax collections if new car registrations total
22,000.
c) The coefficients of correlation and determination.

ANSWER :
1. Page 146-153 4.6

a) Plot The Monthly Sales Data

Sales
25

20

15
Sales

10

0
ry ar
y ch ril ay ne Ju
ly st be
r er be
r
be
r
nua ru ar Ap M Ju ugu m tob m m
a b M A e c e ce
J F e pt O v
Se No De
Month
b) Forecast January sales using each of the following :
 Naïve Method

Month Sales Naïve

January 20
February 21
March 15
April 14
May 13
June 16
July 17
August 18
September 20
October 20
November 21
December 23
January (Next Year) 23

Naïve Method is Assumes that demand in the next period is equal to demand in
the most recent period. So in this case the answer is 23

 A 3-Month Moving Average

Month Sales 3-Months Moving Average

January 20
February 21
March 15
April 14 [(3 x 15) + (2 x 21) + (20)] / 6 = 18 2/3
May 13 [(3 x 14) + (2 x 15) + (21)] / 6 = 16 2/3
June 16 [(3 x 13) + (2 x 14) + (15)] / 6 = 14
July 17 [(3 x 16) + (2 x 13) + (14)] / 6 = 14 1/3
August 18 [(3 x 17) + (2 x 16) + (13)] / 6 = 15 1/3
September 20 [(3 x 18) + (2 x 17) + (16)] / 6 = 17
October 20 [(3 x 20) + (2 x 18) + (17)] / 6 = 18 1/3
November 21 [(3 x 20) + (2 x 20) + (18)] / 6 = 19 1/3
December 23 [(3 x 21) + (2 x 20) + (20)] / 6 = 20 1/3
January (Next Year) [(3 x 23) + (2 x 21) + (20)] / 6 = 21 1/3

1
The Forecast for January using 3-Months Moving Average is 21
3
 A 6-Month Weighted Average

Weight Applied Period

0,1 Six Months Ago

0,1 Five Months Ago
0,1 Four Months Ago
0,2 Three Months Ago
0,2 Two Months Ago
0,3 Last Months
1 Sum of weight

Month Sales 6-Months Weighted Average

January 20
February 21
March 15
April 14
May 13
June 16
[(16 x 0.3) + (13 x 0.2) + (14 x 0.2) + (15 x 0.1) +
July 17 (21 x 0.1) + (20 x 0.1)] / 1 = 15 4/5
[(17 x 0.3) + (16 x 0.2) + (13 x 0.2) + (14 x 0.1) +
August 18 (15 x 0.1) + (21 x 0.1)] / 1 = 16
[(18 x 0.3) + (17 x 0.2) + (16 x 0.2) + (13 x 0.1) +
September 20 (14 x 0.1) + (15 x 0.1)] / 1 = 16 1/5
[(20 x 0.3) + (18 x 0.2) + (17 x 0.2) + (16 x 0.1) +
October 20 (13 x 0.1) + (14 x 0.1)] / 1 = 17 1/3
[(20 x 0.3) + (20 x 0.2) + (18 x 0.2) + (17 x 0.1) +
November 21 (16 x 0.1) + (13 x 0.1)] / 1 = 18 1/5
[(21 x 0.3) + (20 x 0.2) + (20 x 0.2) + (18 x 0.1) +
December 23 (17 x 0.1) + (16 x 0.1)] / 1 = 19 2/5
January (Next [(23 x 0.3) + (21 x 0.2) + (20 x 0.2) + (20 x 0.1) +
Year) (18 x 0.1) + (17 x 0.1)] / 1 = 20 3/5

3
The Forecast for January using 6-Month Weighted Average is 20
5
 Exponential Smoothing

Exponential
Month Sales
Smooth
September 20 18
October 20 18,6
November 21 19,02
December 23 19,614
January (Next
Year) 20,6298

α =0,3
F t+1 =α At + ( 1−α ) F t

F t+1 =0,3 ( A t ) + 0,7(F t )

Forecast for October = 0,3 ( 20 ) +0,7 ( 18 )

= 18,6
Forecast for November = 0,3 ( 20 ) +0,7 ( 18,6 )
= 19,02 or 19
Forecast for December = 0,3 ( 21 ) +0,7 ( 19,614 )
= 19,6 14 or 19,6
Forecast for January = 0,3 ( 23 ) +0,7 ( 19,614 )
= 20,6298 or 20,6
  A Trend Projection

2
Month (x) Sales Demand ( y ) x xy
1 20 1 20
2 21 4 42
3 15 9 45
4 14 16 56
5 13 25 65
6 16 36 96
7 17 49 119
8 18 64 144
9 20 81 180
10 20 100 200
11 21 121 231
12 23 144 276
∑ x 2=¿ 65
∑ x =¿78 ∑ y=¿218 0 ∑ xy =¿1474

x=
∑ x = 78 =6
n 12

y=
∑ y = 218 =18,2
n 12

b=
∑ xy−n x y = 1474−12 (6 ) (18,2 ) = 163,6 =0,750
∑ x 2−n x 2 650−( 12 ) ( 6 )
2
218

a= y−b x=18,2−0,75 ( 6 ) =13,7

Thus, the least-squares trend equation is ^y =13,7 +0,75(x ), To sales demand next
January x=13

Demand in next January = 13,7+0,75 ( 13 )

= 23,45

c) A Trend Projection can Forecast next March’s sales.

 To sales demand next March x=15

Demand in next March = 13,7+0,75 ( 15 )
 = 24,95

2. Page 146-153 4.50

3.0
Annual Sales Tax Collection

2.0
(in Million)

1.0

0.0
5 10 15 20 25
New Car Registration (In Thousand)

a) The Least-Square Regression Equation

New Car Annual Sales Tax

Registrations (x) Collection ( y ) x
2
xy
(In Thousand) (In Millions)
10 1,0 100 10
12 1,4 144 16,8
15 1,9 225 28,5
16 2,0 256 32
14 1,8 196 25,2
17 2,1 289 35,7
20 2,3 400 46
∑ x 2=¿ 161 ∑ xy =¿194,
∑ x =¿104 ∑ y=¿12,5 0 2

x=
∑ x = 104 =14,86
n 7

y=
∑ y = 12,5 =1,79
n 7

b=
∑ xy−n x y = 194,2−7 ( 14,86 )( 1,79 ) = 8,00 =0,125
∑ x 2−n x 2 1610−( 7 ) ( 14,86 )
2
64,26
 a= y−b x=1,79−0,125 ( 14,86 ) =−0,0675
^y =−0,0675+0,125( x ) or ^y =−0,0675+0,125(New Car Registration)

b) The estimated sales tax collections if new car registrations total 22,000
New Car Registration = 22 (in Million)

Sales Tax Collection (in Million) ¿−0,0675+0,125(22)

¿ 2,6825
Sales ¿ $ 2.682.500

c) The coefficients of correlation and determination.

Annual Sales
New Car
Tax Collection 2 2
Registrations (x) x xy y
( y)
(In Thousand)
(In Millions)
10 1,0 100 10 1,0
12 1,4 144 16,8 2,0
15 1,9 225 28,5 3,6
16 2,0 256 32 4,0
14 1,8 196 25,2 3,2
17 2,1 289 35,7 4,4
20 2,3 400 46 5,3
∑ xy =¿194, ∑ y2 =¿
∑ x =¿104 ∑ y=¿12,5 ∑ x =¿ 1610 2
2 23,51

 Coefficient of Corelation

n ∑ xy−∑ x ∑ y
r=
√ [ n∑ x −(∑ x ) ] [n ∑ y −(∑ y ) ]
2 2 2 2

( 7 )( 194,2 )−( 104 )( 12,5 )

¿
√[ ( 7 )( 1610 ) −( 104 ) ] [ ( 7 ) ( 23,51 )−( 12,5 ) ]
2 2

1359,4−1300
¿
√(454)(8,32)
59,4
¿
√ 3.777,28
 59,4
¿
61,46

¿ 0,966

 Coefficient of Determination

2 2
r =0,96 6 =0,933∨93,3 %