7 - Estimation of Parameters: CORE119 - Statistics and Probability
7 - Estimation of Parameters: CORE119 - Statistics and Probability
READING MATERIAL
Topic 7-9
2nd Semester, SY 2021-2022
7 | ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS
LEARNING COMPETENCIES:
The learners are able to:
1. discuss the concept of estimation;
2. differentiate point estimate and interval estimate;
3. identify the properties of point estimator;
4. determine the value of level of confidence and level of significance;
5. compute the (a) point estimate of the parameters, (b) standard error of the mean, (c)
margin of error;
6. use the z- and t-distribution table in computing the margin of error;
7. find the confidence intervals of the population mean when population standard deviation
is known using z-distribution table and when the population standard deviation is
unknown using t-distribution.
8. compute the (a) proportion estimate of the parameters, (b) standard error of the
proportion, (c) margin of error of the proportion;
9. find the confidence interval of the population proportion when the sample proportion is
known;
10. solve problems involving confidence interval estimation of the population proportion;
11. compute for an appropriate sample size using the length on the interval; and
12. solve problems involving sample size determination.
The main purpose of estimation is to determine the approximate value of a population parameter on the basis of a sample
statistic. In statistics, estimation refers to the process by which one makes inferences about a population, based on the
information obtained from a sample. The sample mean 𝒙 ̅ (estimator) is used to estimate the population mean 𝝁, where
the computed is what we call the estimate.
Example 1:
Consider an Economics professor who wanted to estimate the mean monthly allowance of first year Business
Administration students. The professor randomly selected 50 students and computed the mean of their monthly
allowances and came up with Php3,500. The point estimate is the sample mean value. Hence, the professor
estimates that the mean monthly allowance of all the first year Business Administration students is Php3,500.
Example 2:
Given a finite population 2, 4, and 6,
a. find the sample mean and sample standard deviation to estimate the parameters.
b. find the sampling distribution of the mean using a sample size 2 with replacement and show that 𝝁𝒙̅ is an
unbiased estimator of 𝝁.
Solution:
a. Find the sample mean and sampling distribution
To find the sample mean, To find the sample standard deviation,
∑𝑛1 𝑥𝑖
𝑥̅ = =6 ∑(𝑥 − 𝑥̅ )2
𝑛 𝑠=√
2+4+6 𝑛−1
𝑥̅ =
3
2 (2 − 4)2 + (4 − 4)2 + (6 − 4)2
𝑥̅ = = 4 𝑠=√
3 3−1
Finding the frequency, the probability of each mean, and the product of the mean and its corresponding
probability:
(𝒙
̅) 𝒇 ̅)
𝑷(𝒙 (𝒙
̅) ∙ 𝑷(𝒙
̅)
1 2
2 1
9 9
2 6
3 2
9 9
3 12
4 3
9 9
2 10
5 2
9 9
1 6
6 1
9 9
2 6 12 10 6 36
𝜇𝑥̅ = ∑ 𝑥̅ 𝑃(𝑥̅ ) = + + + + = =𝟒
9 9 9 9 9 9
2. INTERVAL ESTIMATOR
An interval estimator draws inferences about a population by estimating the value of an unknown parameter
using an interval. Here, we try to construct an interval that “covers” the true population parameter with a specified
probability.
Example 3:
The mean monthly allowance of Business Administration students is Php3,500. If the precision of the estimate
Php3,500 is ±Php500, the monthly allowance for a certain student could be as low as Php3,000 and as high as
Php4,000. But if the precision is ±Php100, the monthly allowance of a certain student could be somewhere
between Php3,400 and Php3,600.
𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒇𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝒍𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒍 = 𝟏 − 𝜶
Interval Estimate of the Population Mean (𝝁) with Known Population Standard Deviation (𝝈)
As discussed in the previous lesson, even if the population is not normally distributed, as long as the sample size is at
least 30 (𝒏 ≥ 𝟑𝟎), it is assumed using Central Limit Theorem (CLT) that the distribution behaves closely to a normal
curve.
The confidence interval of the population mean (𝝁) when population standard deviation (𝝈) is known is:
𝝈 𝝈
̅ − 𝒛𝜶 ( )] < 𝝁 < 𝑼𝒑𝒑𝒆𝒓 𝑳𝒊𝒎𝒊𝒕 [𝒙
𝑳𝒐𝒘𝒆𝒓 𝑳𝒊𝒎𝒊𝒕 [𝒙 ̅ + 𝒛𝜶 ( )]
𝟐 √𝒏 𝟐 √𝒏
where: 𝑥̅ = 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛
𝜇 = 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛
𝜎 = 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑛 = 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑒
𝝈
𝒛𝜶 ( ) = 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑖𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟
𝟐 √𝒏
𝝈
( ) = 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛
√𝒏
𝑧𝛼 = 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
2
Margin of Error
This refers to the maximum acceptable difference (determined by 𝜶) between the observed sample statistic (men or
proportion) and the true population parameter (mean or proportion).
Sometimes before we conduct a study or research, it is important to know how many members of the population should
we use as samples, and most often, we want that our sample size is manageable. The formula presented below can be
used to select the minimum number of samples to have a reliable or valid result.
𝒛𝜶 ∙ 𝝈 𝟐
𝟐
𝒏=( )
𝑬
where: 𝐸 = 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑖𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟
𝜎 = 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑑𝑒𝑣𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑛 = 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑒
𝑧𝛼 = 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
2
Example 4:
Compute the margin of error of the 95% confidence interval estimate of 𝝁 when 𝝈 = 𝟏𝟎 and 𝒏 = 𝟐𝟓.
Solution:
From the table above, 𝑧𝛼 = 1.96 for 95% level of confidence, thus, the margin of error is:
2
𝜎 10
𝑧𝛼 ( ) = 1.96 ( ) = 1.96 (2) = 𝟑. 𝟗𝟐
2 √𝑛 √25
• When computing a confidence interval for a population mean using raw data, round off to one more decimal
place than the number of decimal places in the original data.
• When computing a confidence interval for a population mean using sample mean and a standard deviation,
round off to the same number of decimal places as given for the mean.
Example 5:
A car company wants to estimate the miles per hour rate of their new car model. It was known through experience
that similar models have standard deviation of 4.5 mile per gallon. A random sample of 100 units of the new
model showed a mean of 32 miles per gallon. Construct a 98% confidence interval for the population mean miles
per gallon rate of the new car model.
Solution:
𝝈 𝝈
𝒙̅ − 𝒛𝜶 ( ) < 𝝁 < 𝒙 ̅ + 𝒛𝜶 ( )
𝟐 √𝒏 𝟐 √𝒏
4.5 4.5
32 − 2.33 ( ) < 𝜇 < 32 + 2.33 ( )
100 100
30.95 < 𝜇 < 33.05
𝟑𝟏 < 𝝁 < 𝟑𝟑
Answer: Therefore, with 98% confidence, the population mean miles per gallon rate of the new car model is
between 𝟑𝟏 < 𝝁 < 𝟑𝟑 from the 100 random samples.
Example 6:
In estimating the mean selling price of all college textbooks which was reported to have a standard deviation of
Php80, how many college textbooks must be selected as samples if you want to be 95% confident that the sample
mean (𝒙 ̅) is within Php20 of the true population mean (𝝁).
Solution:
𝒛𝜶 ∙ 𝝈 𝟐
𝟐
𝒏=( )
𝑬
2
(1.96)(80)
𝑛=[ ]
20
𝑛 = 61.4656
𝒏 = 𝟔𝟏
Answer: Therefore, 61 textbooks must be selected to be 95% confident that the sample mean is within Php20
of the population mean.
Note: The number of samples MUST be rounded off to nearest WHOLE NUMBER.
Interval Estimate of the Population Mean with Unknown Population Standard Deviation (t –
Distribution)
In a normal distribution, if the sample mean (𝑥̅ ) and the sample standard deviation (𝑠) are known, and if the population
standard deviation (𝜎) is unknown, then the confidence interval of the mean is:
𝒔 𝒔
̅ − 𝒕𝜶,𝒅𝒇 ( ) < 𝝁 < 𝒙
𝒙 ̅ + 𝒕𝜶,𝒅𝒇 ( )
𝟐 √𝒏 𝟐 √𝒏
Example 7:
Compute the margin of error of the 90% confidence interval estimate of 𝝁 when 𝒔 = 𝟓 and 𝒏 = 𝟏𝟔.
Solution:
Since it is a 90% confidence interval, 𝛼 = 10% 𝑜𝑟 0.1, that means 𝑡𝛼 = 𝑡0.05 . From the 𝑡 −table, for 𝑑𝑓 = 𝑛 − 1 =
2
16 − 1 = 𝟏𝟓, 𝑡0.05 = 1.753, thus the margin of error is:
𝑠 5
𝑡𝛼 ( ) = 1.753 ( ) = 1.753 (1.25) = 𝟐. 𝟏𝟗
2 √𝑛 √16
Example 8:
A printer manufacturer wants to estimate the pages-per-cartridge print rate of their new printer model. A random
sample of 10 units of the new printer model showed a mean of 1400 pages-per- cartridge with a standard
deviation of 20. Construct a 98% confidence interval to estimate the pages-per- cartridge rate of their new printer
model.
Solution:
From the problem, 𝑠 = 20 ; 𝑥̅ = 1400 ; 𝑛 = 10 ; 𝑑𝑓 = 9 ; 𝑡0.01 = 2.821, we have the following
solution:
𝒔 𝒔
̅ − 𝒕𝜶,𝒅𝒇 ( ) < 𝝁 < 𝒙
𝒙 ̅ + 𝒕𝜶,𝒅𝒇 ( )
𝟐 √𝒏 𝟐 √𝒏
20 20
1400 − 2.821 ( ) < 𝜇 < 1400 + 2.821 ( )
√10 √10
𝟏𝟑𝟖𝟐 < 𝝁 < 𝟏𝟒𝟏𝟖
Answer: Therefore, with 98% confidence, the pages-per-cartridge rate of the company’s new printer model is
𝟏𝟑𝟖𝟐 < 𝝁 < 𝟏𝟒𝟏𝟖 based on the given data.
Example 9:
A printer manufacturer wants to estimate the pages-per-cartridge print rate of their new printer model. A random
sample of 10 units of the new printer model showed a mean of 1400 pages-per- cartridge with a standard
deviation of 20. Construct a 98% confidence interval to estimate the pages-per- cartridge rate of their new printer
model
Solution:
From the problem, 𝑠 = 20 ; 𝑥̅ = 1400 ; 𝑛 = 10 ; 𝑑𝑓 = 9 ; 𝑡0.01 = 2.821, we have the following
solution:
𝒔 𝒔
̅ − 𝒕𝜶,𝒅𝒇 ( ) < 𝝁 < 𝒙
𝒙 ̅ + 𝒕𝜶,𝒅𝒇 ( )
𝟐 √𝒏 𝟐 √𝒏
20 20
1400 − 2.821 ( ) < 𝜇 < 1400 + 2.821 ( )
√10 √10
𝟏𝟒𝟖𝟐 < 𝝁 < 𝟏𝟒𝟏𝟖
Answer: Therefore, with 98% confidence, the pages-per-cartridge rate of the company’s new printer model is
𝟏𝟒𝟖𝟐 < 𝝁 < 𝟏𝟒𝟏𝟖 based on the given data.
Example 10:
The volume of 15 randomly selected bottles of muriatic acid are 95, 110, 88, 95, 65, 75, 92, 77, 105, 115, 102,
88, 108, 105, and 70 ounces. Find 95% confidence interval for the mean volume of muriatic acid, assuming an
approximately normal distribution for the population of the muriatic acid contents.
Solution:
From the given problem, we have first to
solve the sample mean and sample
standard deviation by using the formula
∑𝑥
𝑥̅ = (for the sample mean) and
𝑛
∑(𝑥−𝑥̅ )2
𝑠=√
𝑛−1
(for the sample standard deviation), or
you may simply use your calculators for
an easy solution.
𝒔 𝒔
̅ − 𝒕𝜶,𝒅𝒇 ( ) < 𝝁 < 𝒙
𝒙 ̅ + 𝒕𝜶,𝒅𝒇 ( )
𝟐 √𝒏 𝟐 √𝒏
15.4 15.4
92.7 − 2.145 ( ) < 𝜇 < 92.7 + 2.145 ( )
√15 √15
𝟖𝟒. 𝟐 < 𝝁 < 𝟏𝟎𝟏. 𝟐
Answer: Therefore, with 95% confidence, the volumes are 𝟖𝟒. 𝟐 𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠 < 𝝁 < 𝟏𝟎𝟏. 𝟐 𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑠 based on the
randomly selected data.
Sometimes we are concerned with portions of the population that share common characteristic (i.e., What portion of the
population are senior citizens? How many percent of the population have IQs greater than 120?). There are some
questions which require population proportion (𝑷).
In this lesson we will be dealing with the estimate of the population proportion 𝒑 using large sample size (𝒏 ≥ 𝟑𝟎).
Estimating population proportion is similar to estimating population mean. When the sample proportion 𝒑 ̅ is computed
from a large sample 𝒏, then the interval estimate of the population proportion 𝑷 at certain 𝜶 can be computed as:
̅𝒒
𝒑 ̅ ̅𝒒
𝒑 ̅
̅ − 𝒛𝜶 √
𝒑 ̅ + 𝒛𝜶 √
<𝑷<𝒑
𝟐 𝒏 𝟐 𝒏
where: 𝑃 = 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑝̅ = 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
𝑞̅ = 1 − 𝑝̅
𝑛 = 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑖𝑧𝑒
𝑧𝛼 = 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛
2
𝑝̅ 𝑞̅
𝑧𝛼 √ = 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑖𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 (𝐸)
2 𝑛
Example 11:
Compute the margin of error of the 98% confidence interval estimate of 𝑷 when 𝑝̅ = 0.2, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛 = 36.
Solution:
Since 𝑝̅ = 0.2 then 𝑞̅ = 0.8. Also, from the table, 98% level of confidence corresponds to 𝑧𝛼 = 2.33, thus the
2
margin of error is:
̅𝒒
𝒑 ̅ (0.2)(0.8)
𝒛𝜶 √ = 2.33√ = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟔
𝟐 𝒏 36
Example 12:
A biologist wants to estimate the proportion of male rats. He collected 60 rats from the rice field an found that
38% are males. Compute the 95% confidence interval estimate of the proportion of male rats.
Solution:
From the given problem, we have: 𝑛 = 60 ; 𝑝̅ = 38% 𝑜𝑟 0.38, hence 𝑞̅ = 0.62. For 95% confidence level, 𝑧𝛼 =
2
1.96, thus,
̅𝒒
𝒑 ̅ ̅𝒒
𝒑 ̅
̅ − 𝒛𝜶 √
𝒑 ̅ + 𝒛𝜶 √
<𝑷<𝒑
𝟐 𝒏 𝟐 𝒏
(0.38)(0.62) (0.38)(0.62)
0.38 − 1.96 √ < 𝑃 < 0.38 + 1.96 √
60 60
𝟎. 𝟐𝟔 < 𝑷 < 𝟎. 𝟓𝟎
Answer: Therefore, at 95% confidence level, the male rats comprise about 26% to 50% of the population of rats.
Activity 5.1
I. Determine if the following situation uses probability (P) or non-probability sampling (NP)
by writing your answers on space provided BEFORE each item. Also, write the specific
type of probability or non-probability sampling used on the space provided AFTER each
item.
_______ 1. Selected vehicles are classified according to the last _______________
number of their plates as odd or even.
_______ 2. The minority groups or senators are to be interviewed. _______________
_______ 3. Animals going astray for observation. _______________
_______ 4. Five hundred “likes” from netizens in Facebook is used _______________
as a basis for making a decision.
_______ 5. The respondents are selected according to class size _______________
whereas 30 for freshmen, 20 for sophomores, 10 for
juniors, and 5 for seniors.
II. A group of students got the following scores in a test: 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, and 21. Consider
samples of size 3 that can be drawn from this population.
a. Complete the table below by filling out the sample means of the distribution.
Samples (𝒏 = 𝟑) Sample Mean (𝒙 ̅)
6, 9, 12
6, 9, 15
6, 9, 18
6, 9, 21
6, 12, 15
6, 12, 18
6, 12, 21
6, 15, 18
6, 15, 21
6, 18, 21
9, 12, 15
9, 12, 18
9, 12, 21
9, 15, 18
9, 15, 21
9, 18, 21
12, 15, 18
12, 15, 21
12, 18, 21
15, 18, 21
̅
𝒙 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
̅)
𝑷(𝒙
d. Determine the mean, variance, and standard deviation of the sample mean.
References:
• Teaching Guide in Statistics and Probability
• Gabuyo, Y. A. and Cardena, M. C. (2016). Statistics and Probability. The Inteligente Publishing, Inc., QC.
• Banigon, R. B. (et. Al) (2018). Statistics and Probability for SHS. Educational Resources Corporation, QC.
• https://www.slideshare.net/sirgibey/cabt-shs-statistics-probability-estimation-of-parameters-intro
• http://www.econ.uiuc.edu/~econ173/data/Lecture%203&4.ppt