Chapter 7

Estimation
If we wish to estimate the mean μ of a population for which a census is impractical, say the average
height of all 18-year-old men in the country, a reasonable strategy is to take a sample, compute its
mean x−, and estimate the unknown number μ by the known number x−. For example, if the average
height of 100 randomly selected men aged 18 is 70.6 inches, then we would say that the average
height of all 18-year-old men is (at least approximately) 70.6 inches.

Estimating a population parameter by a single number like this is called point estimation; in the
case at hand the statistic x^− is a point estimate of the parameter μ. The terminology arises because
a single number corresponds to a single point on the number line.

A problem with a point estimate is that it gives no indication of how reliable the estimate is. In
contrast, in this chapter we learn about interval estimation. In brief, in the case of estimating a
population mean μ we use a formula to compute from the data a number E, called
the margin of error of the estimate, and form the interval [x^−−E,x−+E]. We do this in such a way that
a certain proportion, say 95%, of all the intervals constructed from sample data by means of this
formula contain the unknown parameter μ. Such an interval is called
a 95% confidence interval for μ.

Continuing with the example of the average height of 18-year-old men, suppose that the sample of
100 men mentioned above for which x^−=70.6 inches also had sample standard deviation s = 1.7
inches. It then turns out that E = 0.33 and we would state that we are 95% confident that the average
height of all 18-year-old men is in the interval formed by 70.6±0.33 inches, that is, the average is
between 70.27 and 70.93 inches. If the sample statistics had come from a smaller sample, say a
sample of 50 men, the lower reliability would show up in the 95% confidence interval being longer,
hence less precise in its estimate. In this example the 95% confidence interval for the same sample
statistics but with n = 50 is 70.6±0.47 inches, or from 70.13 to 71.07 inches.

7.1 Large Sample Estimation of a Population Mean

LEARNING OBJECTIVES
1. To become familiar with the concept of an interval estimate of the population mean.
2. To understand how to apply formulas for a confidence interval for a population mean.

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Figure 7.2 "Computer Simulation of 40 95% Confidence Intervals for a Mean"shows the intervals
generated by a computer simulation of drawing 40 samples from a normally distributed population
and constructing the 95% confidence interval for each one. We expect that about (0.05)(40)=2 of the
intervals so constructed would fail to contain the population mean μ, and in this simulation two of the
intervals, shown in red, do.

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Figure 7.2 Computer Simulation of 40 95% Confidence Intervals for a Mean

It is standard practice to identify the level of confidence in terms of the area α in the two tails of the
distribution of X^−− when the middle part specified by the level of confidence is taken out. This is
shown in Figure 7.3, drawn for the general situation, and in Figure 7.4, drawn for 95% confidence.
Remember from Section 5.4.1 "Tails of the Standard Normal Distribution" in Chapter 5 "Continuous
Random Variables" that the z-value that cuts off a right tail of area c is denotedzc. Thus the number
1.960 in the example is z.025, which is zα/2 for α=1−0.95=0.05.

Figure 7.3

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100(1−α) α/2.

Figure 7.4

α/2=0.025.

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 EXAMPLE 2
Use Figure 12.3 "Critical Values of " to find the number zα/2 needed in construction of a confidence
interval:
a. when the level of confidence is 90%;
b. when the level of confidence is 99%.

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 Solution:
a. In the next section we will learn about a continuous random variable that has a probability
distribution called the Student t-distribution. Figure 12.3 "Critical Values of " gives the value tc that cuts off a
right tail of area c for different values of c. The last line of that table, the one whose heading is the
symbol ∞ for infinity and [z], gives the corresponding z-value zc that cuts off a right tail of the same area c. In
particular, z0.05 is the number in that row and in the column with the heading t0.05. We read off directly
that z0.05=1.645.
b. In Figure 12.3 "Critical Values of " z0.005 is the number in the last row and in the column headed t0.005,
namely 2.576.

Figure 12.3 "Critical Values of " can be used to find zc only for those values of cfor which there is a
column with the heading tc appearing in the table; otherwise we must use Figure 12.2 "Cumulative
Normal Probability" in reverse. But when it can be done it is both faster and more accurate to use the
last line of Figure 12.3 "Critical Values of " to find zc than it is to do so using Figure 12.2 "Cumulative
Normal Probability" in reverse.

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 EXERCISES
BASIC
1. A random sample is drawn from a population of known standard deviation 11.3. Construct a 90% confidence
interval for the population mean based on the information given (not all of the information given need be
used).
a. n = 36, x−=105.2, s = 11.2
b. n = 100, x−=105.2, s = 11.2
2. A random sample is drawn from a population of known standard deviation 22.1. Construct a 95% confidence
interval for the population mean based on the information given (not all of the information given need be
used).
a. n = 121, x−=82.4, s = 21.9
b. n = 81, x−=82.4, s = 21.9
3. A random sample is drawn from a population of unknown standard deviation. Construct a 99% confidence
interval for the population mean based on the information given.

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 a. n = 49, x−=17.1, s = 2.1
b. n = 169, x−=17.1, s = 2.1

4. A random sample is drawn from a population of unknown standard deviation. Construct a 98% confidence

interval for the population mean based on the information given.

a. n = 225, x−=92.0, s = 8.4

b. n = 64, x−=92.0, s = 8.4

5. A random sample of size 144 is drawn from a population whose distribution, mean, and standard

deviation are all unknown. The summary statistics are x−=58.2 and s = 2.6.

a. Construct an 80% confidence interval for the population mean μ.

b. Construct a 90% confidence interval for the population mean μ.

c. Comment on why one interval is longer than the other.

6. A random sample of size 256 is drawn from a population whose distribution, mean, and standard

deviation are all unknown. The summary statistics are x−=1011 and s = 34.

a. Construct a 90% confidence interval for the population mean μ.

b. Construct a 99% confidence interval for the population mean μ.

c. Comment on why one interval is longer than the other.

APPLICATIONS

7. A government agency was charged by the legislature with estimating the length of time it takes citizens to fill

out various forms. Two hundred randomly selected adults were timed as they filled out a particular form. The

times required had mean 12.8 minutes with standard deviation 1.7 minutes. Construct a 90% confidence

interval for the mean time taken for all adults to fill out this form.

8. Four hundred randomly selected working adults in a certain state, including those who worked at home,

were asked the distance from their home to their workplace. The average distance was 8.84 miles with

standard deviation 2.70 miles. Construct a 99% confidence interval for the mean distance from home to work

for all residents of this state.

9. On every passenger vehicle that it tests an automotive magazine measures, at true speed 55 mph, the

difference between the true speed of the vehicle and the speed indicated by the speedometer. For 36

vehicles tested the mean difference was −1.2 mph with standard deviation 0.2 mph. Construct a 90%

confidence interval for the mean difference between true speed and indicated speed for all vehicles.

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 10. A corporation monitors time spent by office workers browsing the web on their computers instead of

working. In a sample of computer records of 50 workers, the average amount of time spent browsing in an

eight-hour work day was 27.8 minutes with standard deviation 8.2 minutes. Construct a 99.5% confidence

interval for the mean time spent by all office workers in browsing the web in an eight-hour day.

11. A sample of 250 workers aged 16 and older produced an average length of time with the current employer

(“job tenure”) of 4.4 years with standard deviation 3.8 years. Construct a 99.9% confidence interval for the

mean job tenure of all workers aged 16 or older.

12. The amount of a particular biochemical substance related to bone breakdown was measured in 30 healthy

women. The sample mean and standard deviation were 3.3 nanograms per milliliter (ng/mL) and 1.4 ng/mL.

Construct an 80% confidence interval for the mean level of this substance in all healthy women.

13. A corporation that owns apartment complexes wishes to estimate the average length of time residents

remain in the same apartment before moving out. A sample of 150 rental contracts gave a mean length of

occupancy of 3.7 years with standard deviation 1.2 years. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean

length of occupancy of apartments owned by this corporation.

14. The designer of a garbage truck that lifts roll-out containers must estimate the mean weight the truck will lift

at each collection point. A random sample of 325 containers of garbage on current collection routes

yielded x−=75.3 lb, s = 12.8 lb. Construct a 99.8% confidence interval for the mean weight the trucks must lift

each time.

15. In order to estimate the mean amount of damage sustained by vehicles when a deer is struck, an insurance

company examined the records of 50 such occurrences, and obtained a sample mean of $2,785 with sample

standard deviation $221. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean amount of damage in all such

accidents.

16. In order to estimate the mean FICO credit score of its members, a credit union samples the scores of 95

members, and obtains a sample mean of 738.2 with sample standard deviation 64.2. Construct a 99%

confidence interval for the mean FICO score of all of its members.

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 LARGE DATA SET EXERCISES
23. Large Data Set 1 records the SAT scores of 1,000 students. Regarding it as a random sample of all high school
students, use it to construct a 99% confidence interval for the mean SAT score of all students.
http://www.1.xls
24. Large Data Set 1 records the GPAs of 1,000 college students. Regarding it as a random sample of all college
students, use it to construct a 95% confidence interval for the mean GPA of all students.
http://www.1.xls

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 25. Large Data Set 1 lists the SAT scores of 1,000 students.
http://www.1.xls
a. Regard the data as arising from a census of all students at a high school, in which the SAT score
of every student was measured. Compute the population mean μ.
b. Regard the first 36 students as a random sample and use it to construct a 99% confidence for the
mean μ of all 1,000 SAT scores. Does it actually capture the mean μ?
26. Large Data Set 1 lists the GPAs of 1,000 students.

http://www.1.xls
a. Regard the data as arising from a census of all freshman at a small college at the end of their first
academic year of college study, in which the GPA of every such person was measured. Compute the
population mean μ.
b. Regard the first 36 students as a random sample and use it to construct a 95% confidence for the
mean μ of all 1,000 GPAs. Does it actually capture the meanμ?

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