Global warming

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For scientific and political disputes, see Global warming
controversy, Scientific opinion on climate
change and Public opinion on climate change.
For past climate
change see Paleoclimatology and Geologic temperature
record. For the Sonny Rollins album see Global Warming
(album).

1880-2009 global mean surface temperature change

relative to the 1961–1990 average. Source: NASA GISS
Comparison of ground based (blue) and satellite based
(red: UAH; green: RSS) records of temperature variations
since 1979. Trends plotted since January 1982.
Mean surface temperature change for the period 2000 to
2009 relative to the average temperatures from 1951 to
1980.[1]
Global warming is the increase in the average
temperature of Earth's near-surface air and oceans since
the mid-20th century and its projected continuation.
According to the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report by
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
global surface temperature increased
0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during the 20th century.[2]
[A]
 Most of the observed temperature increase since the
middle of the 20th century has been causedby increasing
concentrations of greenhouse gases, which result
from human activity such as the burning of fossil
fuel and deforestation.[3] Global dimming, a result of
increasing concentrations of atmospheric aerosols that
block sunlight from reaching the surface, has partially
countered the effects of warming induced by greenhouse
gases.
Climate model projections summarized in the latest IPCC
report indicate that the global surface temperature is likely
to rise a further 1.1 to 6.4 °C(2.0 to 11.5 °F) during the
21st century.[2] The uncertainty in this estimate arises from
the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse
gas concentrations and the use of differing estimates of
future greenhouse gas emissions. An increase in global
temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change
the amount and pattern of precipitation, probably including
expansion of subtropical deserts.[4] Warming is expected to
be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with
continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice.
Other likely effects include changes in the frequency and
intensity of extreme weather events, species extinctions,
and changes in agricultural yields. Warming and related
changes will vary from region to region around the globe,
though the nature of these regional variations is uncertain.
[5]
 As a result of contemporary increases in atmospheric
carbon dioxide, the oceans have become more acidic, a
result that is predicted to continue.[6][7]
The scientific consensus is that anthropogenic global
warming is occurring.[8][9][10]
[B]
 Nevertheless, political and public debate continues.
The Kyoto Protocolis aimed at stabilizing greenhouse gas
concentration to prevent a "dangerous anthropogenic
interference".[11] As of November 2009, 187 states had
signed and ratified the protocol.[12]
Proposed responses to climate change
include mitigation to reduce emissions, adaptation to the
effects of global warming, and geoengineering to remove
greenhouse gases from the atmosphere or block incoming
sunlight.
Two millennia of mean surface temperatures according to
different reconstructions, each smoothed on a decadal
scale, with the actual recorded temperatures overlaid in
black.
Evidence for warming of the climate system includes
observed increases in global average air and ocean
temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and
rising global average sea level.[13][14][15][16][17] The most
common measure of global warming is the trend in
globally averaged temperature near the Earth's surface.
Expressed as a linear trend, this temperature rose by
0.74 ± 0.18 °C over the period 1906–2005. The rate of
warming over the last half of that period was almost
double that for the period as a whole (0.13 ± 0.03 °C per
decade, versus 0.07 °C ± 0.02 °C per decade). The urban
heat island effect is estimated to account for about
0.002 °C of warming per decade since 1900.
[18]
 Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased
between 0.13 and 0.22 °C (0.22 and 0.4 °F) per decade
since 1979, according to satellite temperature
measurements. Temperature is believed to have been
relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before
1850, with regionally varying fluctuations such as
the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.[19]
Estimates by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space
Studies (GISS) and the National Climatic Data
Center show that 2005 was the warmest year since
reliable, widespread instrumental measurements became
available in the late 19th century, exceeding the previous
record set in 1998 by a few hundredths of a degree.[20]
[21]
 Estimates prepared by the World Meteorological
Organization and the Climatic Research Unit show 2005
as the second warmest year, behind 1998.[22]
[23]
 Temperatures in 1998 were unusually warm because
the strongest El Niño in the past century occurred during
that year.[24] Global temperature is subject to short-term
fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can
temporarily mask them. The relative stability in
temperature from 2002 to 2009 is consistent with such an
episode.[25][26]
Temperature changes vary over the globe. Since 1979,
land temperatures have increased about twice as fast as
ocean temperatures (0.25 °C per decade against 0.13 °C
per decade).[27] Ocean temperatures increase more slowly
than land temperatures because of the larger effective
heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses
more heat by evaporation.[28] The Northern
Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern
Hemisphere because it has more land and because it has
extensive areas of seasonal snow and sea-ice cover
subject toice-albedo feedback. Although more greenhouse
gases are emitted in the Northern than Southern
Hemisphere this does not contribute to the difference in
warming because the major greenhouse gases persist
long enough to mix between hemispheres.[29]
The thermal inertia of the oceans and slow responses of
other indirect effects mean that climate can take centuries
or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. Climate
commitment studies indicate that even if greenhouse
gases were stabilized at 2000 levels, a further warming of
about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) would still occur.[30]
External forcings
External forcing refers to processes external to the climate
system (though not necessarily external to Earth) that
influence climate. Climate responds to several types of
external forcing, such asradiative forcing due to changes
in atmospheric composition (mainly greenhouse
gas concentrations), changes in solar
luminosity, volcanic eruptions, and variations in Earth's
orbit around the Sun.[31]Attribution of recent climate
change focuses on the first three types of forcing. Orbital
cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and
thus are too gradual to have caused the temperature
changes observed in the past century.
Greenhouse gases
Main articles: Greenhouse effect, Radiative forcing,
and Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere
Greenhouse effect schematic showing energy flows
between space, the atmosphere, and earth's surface.
Energy exchanges are expressed in watts per square
meter (W/m2).

Recent atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO2) increases.

Monthly CO2measurements display seasonal oscillations
in overall yearly uptrend; each year's maximum occurs
during theNorthern Hemisphere's late spring, and declines
during its growing season as plants remove some
atmospheric CO2.
The greenhouse effect is the process by
which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by
gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's lower
atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by Joseph
Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively
by Svante Arrhenius in 1896.[32]
Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean
warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F).[33][C] The major
greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about
36–70 percent of the greenhouse effect; carbon
dioxide (CO2), which causes 9–26
percent; methane (CH4), which causes 4–9 percent;
and ozone (O3), which causes 3–7 percent.[34][35][36] Clouds
also affect the radiation balance, but they are composed of
liquid water or ice and so have different effects on
radiation from water vapor.
Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has
increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from
CO2,methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous
oxide. The concentrations of CO2 and methane have
increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750.
[37]
These levels are much higher than at any time during
the last 650,000 years, the period for which reliable data
has been extracted from ice cores.[38][39][40] Less direct
geological evidence indicates that CO2 values higher than
this were last seen about 20 million years ago.[41] Fossil
fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the
increase in CO2 from human activity over the past 20
years. Most of the rest is due to land-use change,
particularly deforestation.[42]
Over the last three decades of the 20th century, GDP per
capita and population growth were the main drivers of
increases in greenhouse gas emissions.[43] CO2emissions
are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and
land-use change.[44][45]:71 Emissions scenarios, estimates of
changes in future emission levels of greenhouse gases,
have been projected that depend upon uncertain
economic, sociological, technological, and natural
developments.[46] In most scenarios, emissions continue to
rise over the century, while in a few, emissions are
reduced.[47][48] These emission scenarios, combined with
carbon cycle modelling, have been used to produce
estimates of how atmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases will change in the future. Using the six
IPCC SRES"marker" scenarios, models suggest that by
the year 2100, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 could
range between 541 and 970 ppm.[49] This is an increase of
90-250% above the concentration in the year 1750. Fossil
fuel reserves are sufficient to reach these levels and
continue emissions past 2100 if coal, oil sandsor methane
clathrates are extensively exploited.[50]
The destruction of stratospheric ozone
by chlorofluorocarbons is sometimes mentioned in relation
to global warming. Although there are a few areas of
linkage, the relationship between the two is not strong.
Reduction of stratospheric ozone has a cooling influence.
[51]
 Substantial ozone depletion did not occur until the late
1970s.[52] Ozone in the troposphere (the lowest part of
the Earth's atmosphere) does contribute to surface
warming.[53]
Aerosols and soot
Ship tracks over the Atlantic Ocean on the east coast of
the United States. The climatic impacts from aerosol
forcing could have a large effect on climate through the
indirect effect.
Global dimming, a gradual reduction in the amount of
global direct irradiance at the Earth's surface, has partially
counteracted global warming from 1960 to the present.
[54]
 The main cause of this dimming is aerosols produced
by volcanoes and pollutants. These aerosols exert a
cooling effect by increasing the reflection of incoming
sunlight. The effects of the products of fossil fuel
combustion—CO2 and aerosols—have largely offset one
another in recent decades, so that net warming has been
due to the increase in non-CO2 greenhouse gases such
as methane.[55] Radiative forcing due to aerosols is
temporally limited due to wet deposition which causes
aerosols to have an atmospheric lifetime of one week.
Carbon dioxide has a lifetime of a century or more, and as
such, changes in aerosol concentrations will only delay
climate changes due to carbon dioxide.[56]
In addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing
solar radiation, aerosols have indirect effects on the
radiation budget.[57] Sulfate aerosols act ascloud
condensation nuclei and thus lead to clouds that have
more and smaller cloud droplets. These clouds reflect
solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and
larger droplets.[58] This effect also causes droplets to be of
more uniform size, which reduces growth of raindrops and
makes the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight.
[59]
 Indirect effects are most noticeable in marine stratiform
clouds, and have very little radiative effect on convective
clouds. Aerosols, particularly their indirect effects,
represent the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.[60]
Soot may cool or warm the surface, depending on whether
it is airborne or deposited. Atmospheric soot aerosols
directly absorb solar radiation, which heats the
atmosphere and cools the surface. In isolated areas with
high soot production, such as rural India, as much as 50%
of surface warming due to greenhouse gases may be
masked by atmospheric brown clouds.[61] Atmospheric soot
always contributes additional warming to the climate
system. When deposited, especially on glaciers or on ice
in arctic regions, the lower surface albedo can also directly
heat the surface.[62] The influences of aerosols, including
black carbon, are most pronounced in the tropics and sub-
tropics, particularly in Asia, while the effects of
greenhouse gases are dominant in the extratropics and
southern hemisphere.[63]
Solar variation
Main article: Solar variation

Solar variation over thirty years.

Variations in solar output have been the cause of
past climate changes.[64] The effect of changes in solar
forcing in recent decades is uncertain, but small, with
some studies showing a slight cooling effect,[65] while
others studies suggest a slight warming effect.[31][66][67][68]
Greenhouse gases and solar forcing affect temperatures
in different ways. While both increased solar activity and
increased greenhouse gases are expected to warm
the troposphere, an increase in solar activity should warm
the stratosphere while an increase in greenhouse gases
should cool the stratosphere.[31]Observations show that
temperatures in the stratosphere have been cooling since
1979, when satellite measurements became
available. Radiosonde (weather balloon) data from the
pre-satellite era show cooling since 1958, though there is
greater uncertainty in the early radiosonde record.[69]
A related hypothesis, proposed by Henrik Svensmark, is
that magnetic activity of the sun deflects cosmic rays that
may influence the generation of cloud condensation nuclei
and thereby affect the climate.[70] Other research has found
no relation between warming in recent decades
and cosmic rays.[71][72] The influence of cosmic rays on
cloud cover is about a factor of 100 lower than needed to
explain the observed changes in clouds or to be a
significant contributor to present-day climate change.[73]
Feedback
Main article: Climate change feedback
Feedback is a process in which changing one quantity
changes a second quantity, and the change in the second
quantity in turn changes the first. Positive
feedback amplifies the change in the first quantity
while negative feedback reduces it. Feedback is important
in the study of global warming because it may amplify or
diminish the effect of a particular process. The main
positive feedback in global warming is the tendency of
warming to increase the amount of water vapor in the
atmosphere, a significant greenhouse gas. The main
negative feedback is radiative cooling, which increases as
the fourth power of temperature; the amount of heat
radiated from the Earth into space increases with the
temperature of Earth's surface and atmosphere. Imperfect
understanding of feedbacks is a major cause of
uncertainty and concern about global warming. A wide
range of potential feedback process exist, such as Arctic
methane release and ice-albedo feedback.
Consequentially, potentialtipping points may exist, which
may have the potential to cause abrupt climate change.[74]
Climate models
Main article: Global climate model

Calculations of global warming prepared in or before 2001

from a range of climate models under the SRES A2
emissions scenario, which assumes no action is taken to
reduce emissions and regionally divided economic
development.
The geographic distribution of surface warming during the
21st century calculated by the HadCM3 climate model if a
business as usual scenario is assumed for economic
growth and greenhouse gas emissions. In this figure, the
globally averaged warming corresponds to 3.0 °C (5.4 °F).
The main tools for projecting future climate changes
are mathematical models based on physical principles
including fluid dynamics, thermodynamics andradiative
transfer. Although they attempt to include as many
processes as possible, simplifications of the actual climate
system are inevitable because of the constraints of
available computer power and limitations in knowledge of
the climate system. All modern climate models are in
fact combinations of models for different parts of the Earth.
These include an atmospheric model for air movement,
temperature, clouds, and other atmospheric properties; an
ocean model that predicts temperature, salt content, and
circulation of ocean waters; models for ice cover on land
and sea; and a model of heat and moisture transfer from
soil and vegetation to the atmosphere. Some models also
include treatments of chemical and biological processes.
[75]
 Warming due to increasing levels of greenhouse gases
is not an assumption of the models; rather, it is an end
result from the interaction of greenhouse gases with
radiative transfer and other physical processes.
[76]
 Although much of the variation in model outcomes
depends on the greenhouse gas emissions used as
inputs, the temperature effect of a specific greenhouse
gas concentration (climate sensitivity) varies depending on
the model used. The representation of clouds is one of the
main sources of uncertainty in present-generation models.
[77]

Global climate model projections of future climate most

often have used estimates of greenhouse gas emissions
from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios (SRES). In addition to human-caused
emissions, some models also include a simulation of
the carbon cycle; this generally shows a positive feedback,
though this response is uncertain. Some observational
studies also show a positive feedback.[78][79][80] Including
uncertainties in future greenhouse gas concentrations and
climate sensitivity, the IPCC anticipates a warming
of 1.1 °C to 6.4 °C (2.0 °F to 11.5 °F) by the end of the
21st century, relative to 1980–1999.[2]
Models are also used to help investigate the causes of
recent climate change by comparing the observed
changes to those that the models project from various
natural and human-derived causes. Although these
models do not unambiguously attribute the warming that
occurred from approximately 1910 to 1945 to either
natural variation or human effects, they do indicate that
the warming since 1970 is dominated by man-made
greenhouse gas emissions.[31]
The physical realism of models is tested by examining
their ability to simulate current or past climates.[81] Current
climate models produce a good match to observations of
global temperature changes over the last century, but do
not simulate all aspects of climate.[42] Not all effects of
global warming are accurately predicted by the climate
models used by the IPCC. Observed Arctic shrinkage has
been faster than that predicted.[82] Precipitation increased
proportional to atmospheric humidity, and hence
significantly faster than current global climate models
predict.[83][84]
Attributed and expected effects
Main articles: Effects of global warming and Regional
effects of global warming
Global warming may be detected
in natural, ecological or social systems as a change
having statistical significance.[85] Attribution of these
changes e.g., to natural or human activities, is the next
step following detection.[86]
Natural systems

Sparse records indicate that glaciers have been retreating

since the early 1800s. In the 1950s measurements began
that allow the monitoring of glacial mass balance, reported
to the WGMS and the NSIDC.
Global warming has been detected in a number of
systems. Some of these changes, e.g., based on the
instrumental temperature record, have been described in
the section on temperature changes. Rising sea levels and
observed decreases in snow and ice extent are consistent
with warming.[17] Most of the increase in global average
temperature since the mid-20th century is, with high
probability,[D] attributable to human-induced changes in
greenhouse gas concentrations.[87]
Even with current policies to reduce emissions, global
emissions are still expected to continue to grow over the
coming decades.[88] Over the course of the 21st century,
increases in emissions at or above their current rate would
very likely induce changes in the climate system larger
than those observed in the 20th century.
In the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, across a range of
future emission scenarios, model-based estimates of sea
level rise for the end of the 21st century (the year 2090-
2099, relative to 1980-1999) range from 0.18 to 0.59 m.
These estimates, however, were not given a likelihood due
to a lack of scientific understanding, nor was an upper
bound given for sea level rise. Over the course of
centuries to millennia, the melting of ice sheets could
result in sea level rise of 4–6 m or more.[89]
Changes in regional climate are expected to include
greater warming over land, with most warming at high
northern latitudes, and least warming over theSouthern
Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean.[88] Snow
cover area and sea ice extent are expected to decrease.
The frequency of hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy
precipitation will very likely increase.
Ecological systems
In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing
of spring events, and poleward and upward shifts in plant
and animal ranges, have been linked with high confidence
to recent warming.[17] Future climate change is expected to
particularly affect certain ecosystems,
including tundra, mangroves, and coral reefs.[88] It is
expected that most ecosystems will be affected by higher
atmospheric CO2 levels, combined with higher global
temperatures.[90] Overall, it is expected that climate change
will result in the extinction of many species and reduced
diversity of ecosystems.[91]
Social systems
There is some evidence of regional climate change
affecting systems related to human activities, including
agricultural and forestry management activities at higher
latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere.[17] Future climate
change is expected to particularly affect some sectors and
systems related to human activities.[88] Low-
lying coastal systems are vulnerable to sea level rise and
storm surge. Human health will be at increased risk in
populations with limited capacity to adapt to climate
change. It is expected that some regions will be
particularly affected by climate change, including
the Arctic, Africa, small islands, and Asian and
African megadeltas. In some areas the effects on
agriculture, industry and health could be mixed, or even
beneficial in certain respects, but overall it is expected that
these benefits will be outweighed by negative effects.[92]
Responses to global warming
Mitigation
Main article: Climate change mitigation
See also: Fee and dividend
Reducing the amount of future climate change is
called mitigation of climate change. The IPCC defines
mitigation as activities that reduce greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions, or enhance the capacity ofcarbon sinks to
absorb GHGs from the atmosphere.[93] Many countries,
both developing and developed, are aiming to use cleaner,
less polluting, technologies.[45]:192 Use of these
technologies aids mitigation and could result in substantial
reductions in CO2 emissions. Policies include targets for
emissions reductions, increased use of renewable energy,
and increased energy efficiency. Studies indicate
substantial potential for future reductions in emissions.
[94]
 Since even in the most optimistic scenario, fossil
fuels are going to be used for years to come, mitigation
may also involve carbon capture and storage, a process
that traps CO2 produced by factories
and gas or coal power stations and then stores it, usually
underground.[95]
Adaptation
Main article: Adaptation to global warming
Other policy responses include adaptation to climate
change. Adaptation to climate change may be planned,
e.g., by local or national government, or spontaneous, i.e.,
done privately without government intervention.
[96]
 The ability to adapt is closely linked
to social and economic development.[94] Even societies
with high capacities to adapt are still vulnerable to climate
change. Planned adaptation is already occurring on a
limited basis. The barriers, limits, and costs of future
adaptation are not fully understood.
Geoengineering
Another policy response is engineering of the climate
(geoengineering). This policy response is sometimes
grouped together with mitigation.[97] Geoengineering is
largely unproven, and reliable cost estimates for it have
not yet been published.[98] Geoengineering encompasses a
range of techniques to remove CO2 from the
atmosphere or to block incoming sunlight.
UNFCCC
Most countries are Parties to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
[99]
 The ultimate objective of the Convention is to prevent
"dangerous" human interference of the climate system.
[100]
 As is stated in the Convention, this requires that GHGs
are stabilized in the atmosphere at a level where
ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food
production is not threatened, and economic development
can proceed in a sustainable fashion.
The UNFCCC recognizes differences among countries in
their responsibility to act on climate change.[101] In
the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC, most developed
countries (listed in Annex I of the treaty) took on legally
binding commitments to reduce their emissions.[102] Policy
measures taken in response to these commitments have
reduced emissions.[103] For many developing (non-Annex I)
countries, reducing poverty is their overriding aim.[104]
At the 15th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties, held in
2009 at Copenhagen, several UNFCCC Parties produced
the Copenhagen Accord.[105] Parties agreeing with the
Accord aim to limit the future increase in global mean
temperature to below 2 °C.[106] The 16th Conference of the
Parties (COP16) was held at Cancún in 2010. It produced
an agreement, not a binding treaty, that the Parties should
take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to
meet the 2 °C goal. It also recognized the need to
consider strengthening the goal to a global average rise of
1.5 °C.[107]
Views on global warming
Main articles: Global warming controversy and Politics of
global warming
See also: Scientific opinion on climate change and Public
opinion on climate change

Per capita greenhouse gas emissions in 2000,

including land-use change.
Total greenhouse gas emissions in 2000, including land-
use change.
There are different views over what the appropriate policy
response to climate change should be.[108][109] These
competing views weigh the benefits of limiting emissions
of greenhouse gases against the costs. In general, it
seems likely that climate change will impose greater
damages and risks in poorer regions.[110]
Politics
Developed and developing countries have made different
arguments over who should bear the burden
of economic costs for cutting emissions. Developing
countries often concentrate on per capita emissions, that
is, the total emissions of a country divided by its
population.[111] Per capita emissions in the industrialized
countries are typically as much as ten times the average in
developing countries.[112] This is used to make the
argument that the real problem of climate change is due to
the profligate and unsustainable lifestyles of those living in
rich countries.[111]
On the other hand, commentators from developed
countries point out that total carbon emissions,[111] carrying
capacity, efficient energy use and civil and political
rights are very important issues. World population is the
number of humans per unit area. However the land is not
the same everywhere. Not only the quantity of fossil fuel
use but also the quality of energy use is a key debate
point. For example, efficient energy
use supporting technological change might help reduce
excess carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere. The use of
fossil fuels for conspicuous consumption and
excessive entertainment are issues that can conflict
with civil and political rights. People in developed countries
argue that history has proven the difficulty of implementing
fair rationing programs in different countries because there
is no global system of checks and balances or civil
liberties.
The Kyoto Protocol, which came into force in 2005, sets
legally binding emission limitations for most developed
countries.[102] Developing countries are not subject to
limitations. This exemption led the U.S. and Australia to
decide not to ratify the treaty,[113] [114][115] although Australia
did finally ratify the treaty in December 2007.[116] Debate
continued at the Copenhagen climate summit and
the Cancún climate summit.
Public opinion
In 2007–2008 Gallup Polls surveyed 127 countries. Over a
third of the world's population was unaware of global
warming, with people in developing countries less aware
than those in developed, and those in Africa the least
aware. Of those aware, Latin America leads in belief that
temperature changes are a result of human activities while
Africa, parts of Asia and the Middle East, and a few
countries from the Former Soviet Union lead in the
opposite belief.[117] In the Western world, opinions over the
concept and the appropriate responses are divided. Nick
Pidgeon of Cardiff University said that "results show the
different stages of engagement about global warming on
each side of the Atlantic", adding, "The debate in Europe
is about what action needs to be taken, while many in the
U.S. still debate whether climate change is happening."[118]
[119]
 A 2010 poll by the Office of National Statistics found
that 75% of UK respondents were at least "fairly
convinced" that the world's climate is changing, compared
to 87% in a similar survey in 2006.[120] A January
2011 ICM poll in the UK found 83% of respondents viewed
climate change as a current or imminent threat, while 14%
said it was no threat. Opinion was unchanged from an
August 2009 poll asking the same question, though there
had been a slight polarisation of opposing views.[121]
Other views
Most scientists accept that humans are contributing to
observed climate change.[44][122] National science
academies have called on world leaders for policies to cut
global emissions.[123] However, some scientists and non-
scientists question aspects of climate-change science.[124]
[125]

Organizations such as the libertarian Competitive

Enterprise Institute, conservative commentators, and
some companies such as ExxonMobil have challenged
IPCC climate change scenarios, funded scientists who
disagree with the scientific consensus, and provided their
own projections of the economic cost of stricter controls.
[126][127][128][129]
 In the finance industry, Deutsche Bank has
set up an institutional climate change investment division
(DBCCA),[130] which has commissioned and published
research[131] on the issues and debate surrounding global
warming.[132] Environmental organizations and public
figures have emphasized changes in the current climate
and the risks they entail, while promoting adaptation to
changes in infrastructural needs and emissions
reductions.[133]Some fossil fuel companies have scaled
back their efforts in recent years,[134] or called for policies
to reduce global warming.[135]
Etymology
The term global warming was probably first used in its
modern sense on 8 August 1975 in a science paper
by Wally Broecker in the journal Science called "Are we on
the brink of a pronounced global warming?".[136][137]
[138]
 Broecker's choice of words was new and represented
a significant recognition that the climate was warming;
previously the phrasing used by scientists was
"inadvertent climate modification," because while it was
recognized humans could change the climate, no one was
sure which direction it was going.[139] The National
Academy of Sciences first used global warming in a 1979
paper called the Charney Report, it said: "if carbon dioxide
continues to increase, [we find] no reason to doubt that
climate changes will result and no reason to believe that
these changes will be negligible."[140] The report made a
distinction between referring to surface temperature
changes as global warming, while referring to other
changes caused by increased CO2 as climate change.[139]
Global warming became more widely popular after 1988
when NASA scientist James Hansen used the term in a
testimony to Congress.[139] He said: "global warming has
reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high
degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship
between the greenhouse effect and the observed
warming."[141] His testimony was widely reported and
afterward global warming was commonly used by the
press and in public discourse.[139]
See also
Global Warming portal
 Glossary of climate change
 Index of climate change articles
 History of climate change science
Notes

A. ^ Increase is for years 1905 to 2005. Global surface

temperature is defined in the IPCC Fourth
Assessment Report as the average of near-surface
air temperature over land and sea surface
temperature. These error bounds are constructed
with a 90% confidence interval.
B. ^ The 2001 joint statement was signed by the national
academies of science
of Australia,Belgium, Brazil, Canada, the Caribbean,
the People's Republic of
China, France, Germany,India, Indonesia, Ireland, Ital
y, Malaysia, New Zealand, Sweden, and the UK. The
2005 statement added Japan, Russia, and
the U.S. The 2007 statement
added Mexico and South Africa. The Network of
 African Science Academies, and the Polish Academy
of Scienceshave issued separate statements.
Professional scientific societies include American
Astronomical Society, American Chemical
Society, American Geophysical Union, American
Institute of Physics, American Meteorological
Society, American Physical Society,American
Quaternary Association, Australian Meteorological
and Oceanographic Society,Canadian Foundation for
Climate and Atmospheric Sciences, Canadian
Meteorological and Oceanographic
Society, European Academy of Sciences and
Arts, European Geosciences Union, European
Science Foundation, Geological Society of
America, Geological Society of Australia, Geological
Society of London-Stratigraphy
Commission, InterAcademy Council,International
Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, International
Union for Quaternary Research, National Association
of Geoscience Teachers, National Research Council
(US), Royal Meteorological Society, and World
Meteorological Organization.
C. ^ Note that the greenhouse effect produces an
average worldwide temperature increase of about
33 °C (59 °F) compared to black body predictions
without the greenhouse effect, not an
average surface temperature of 33 °C (91 °F). The
average worldwide surface temperature is about
14 °C (57 °F).
D. ^ In the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, published
in 2007, this attribution is given a probability of
 greater than 90%, based on expert judgement.
[142]
 According to the US National Research Council
Report – Understanding and Responding to Climate
Change - published in 2008, "[most] scientists agree
that the warming in recent decades has been caused
primarily by human activities that have increased the
amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere."[44]
E.Causes of global warming
F. While many people pinpoint varying causes of global
warming, all are gradual and have been happening for
years past.
G. The cause that is primarily noted as the cause of
global warming is greenhousegas. First of all let’s
explain the greenhouse effect, which is the process
by which infrared radiation is absorbed and emitted by
atmospheric gas and then warms the planet. Its
existence is positive to an extent, but when human
activity strengthens atmospheric concentrations, it
can be a negative thing.
H. The main greenhouse gases on earth that
contribute to the greenhouse effect are carbon
dioxide, methane and ozone as well as nitrous oxide
and other naturally occurring gases. The levels of
carbon dioxide and methane have increased
significantly over the past 650,000 years due to fossil
fuels being burned, deforestation and other causes.
I. Currently the CO2 concentration is 383 parts per
million (ppm). This is expected to rise as damaging
human activity increases or even just continues.
Emissions may continue to rise if coal, tar sands or
methane continue to be used.
J. Feedback processes also can contribute to the global
warming issue. The evaporation of water is a big part
of this. Warming causes water to evaporate into the
atmosphere and the evaporated water acts as
greenhouse gases, thus the cycle continues. This
takes a while to be reversed because CO2 has a long
lifespan.
K.Clouds can emit infrared radiation back to Earth,
which causes a warming effect, while also reflecting
sun and radiation back to space for cooling. Cloud
feedback isn’t as strong as water vapor feedback.
L. There is also ice-albedo feedback; this is when ice
near the poles melts quickly as surface temperatures
rise. Land and open water replace the areas where
ice melted; these do not reflect as well as ice, so
more radiation is absorbed. Thus there is more
warming and more melting, etc.
M. Finally, solar variation is considered a cause of
global warming. Some researchers, such as from
Duke University, believe that the sun may have
created 45-50 percent of the increase in average
global temperature from 1900-2000 and 25-35
percent from 1980-2000. It is also considered that
solar output may have contributed to global warming;
the magnetic properties of the sun may deflect cosmic
rays, influencing cloud condensation and thus
affecting the Earth’s climate.
N. An increase in solar activity may cause a
warming of the stratosphere. However, it is
considered by some scientists such as Peter Foukal
that solar variation combined with changing volcanic
 activity may have increased temperatures before
industrial times but decreased temperatures since.
Basically solar variation is a controversial cause of
global warming.
O. Steps To Stop Global Warming
P.• Drive an energy-efficient car. For instance, hybrid
cars run on gas and electricity. The average hybrid
can save 16,000 pounds of carbon dioxide (which is
considered a greenhouse gas emission) a year! And
$3,750 in gas money! Pay attention to the MPG (miles
per gallon) of a car you may want to buy. No SUVs!
Read consumer reports about which vehicles are
most energy-efficient.
Q. • While on the subject of cars, make sure that
tires are properly inflated or else you can release as
much as 250 extra pounds of carbon dioxide annually.
If you have an old air filter, that can also cost an extra
800 pounds of CO2 and $130 a year. Check these
monthly.
R. • Check your water heater (or don’t use it at all).
Keeping it at less than 120 degrees F can save
money and emissions. An extra two degrees can save
2,000 pounds of carbon dioxide and $98 a year! If you
go tankless, you can save 300 pounds of CO2 and
$390 a year.
S.• Also, don’t use hot water if you don’t need to, like
when doing laundry. There are special detergents
formulated for use with cold water. You don’t need to
take cold baths or anything, but a few minutes early
out of the shower helps. Showers account for 2/3 of
water heating costs and shorter showers can mean
 reducing 350 pounds of carbon dioxide a year. Try
using low-flow showerheads too.
T. • Speaking of laundry, try air-drying your clothes
instead of using a dryer… this can save 700 pounds
and $75 a year.
U. • Take care with your appliances. Unplug them
when you don’t use them; this saves 1,000 pounds
and $256 a year because appliances still use energy
if they’re plugged in, even when not in use. You can
get a power strip with an on-off switch so you can
keep plugs in but they don’t all have to be used. Also
try going with blue Energy Star label products.
V.• Look at your light bulbs! Get energy-saving ones.
Compact fluorescent bulbs use 66 percent less
energy and replacing just 3 regular bulbs can mean
saving 300 pounds and $60 each year.
W. • Buy recycled products. Also try donating or
selling instead of throwing away… craigslist.com is a
great way to do that!
X.• As far as consumerism, try buying products with less
packaging! It kills me going through all the layers of
plastic covering and plastic wrap and paper wrapping
and ties and such! Buying in bulk can mean less
packaging and less money being spent. Plus more
food is just better to have around.
Y.• Ceiling fans are a pretty harmless way to cool down
a room without using an air conditioner. It uses less
energy and can be considered a comfort.
Z. • Plant trees! Not only do they suck up carbon dioxide,
provide cleaner air and save 2,000 pounds of CO2 a
year, but you can strategize where you place them so
 they can shade your home. Deciduous trees lose their
leaves in the winter so sun can warm your home as
well.
AA. • Install blinds in your windows and keep
windows and doors shut during the day to keep it
cooler.
BB. • Buy organic. Large agricultural sources use
chemicals, which pollute water and require energy to
produce. And use cloth bags while you’re at it instead
of those plastic bags!
 One of the
biggest issues facing us right now is global warming.
Its effects on animals and on agriculture are indeed
frightening, and the effects on the human population
are even scarier. The facts about global warming are
often debated, but unfortunately, even if we disagree
about the causes, global warming effects are real,
global, and measurable. The causes are mainly from
us, the human race, and the effects on us will be
severe.
Global Warming Effects and Causes: A Top 10 List
1. Global Warming Cause: Carbon dioxide emissions
from fossil fuel burning power plants
Our ever increasing addiction to electricity from coal
burning power plants releases enormous amounts of
carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. 40% of U.S. CO2
emissions come from electricity production, and
burning coal accounts for 93% of emissions from the
electric utility industry [EPA, pg. 10]. Every day, more
electric gadgets flood the market, and without
widespread alternative energy sources, we are highly
dependent on burning coal for our personal and
commercial electrical supply.
2. Global Warming Cause: Carbon dioxide emissions
from burning gasoline for transportation
Our modern car culture and appetite for globally
sourced goods is responsible for about 33% of
emissions in the U.S. [EPA pg. 8] With our population
growing at an alarming rate, the demand for more
cars and consumer goods means that we are
increasing the use of fossil fuels for transportation
and manufacturing. Our consumption is outpacing
our discoveries of ways to mitigate the effects, with
no end in sight to our massive consumer culture.
3. Global Warming Cause: Methane emissions
from animals,agriculture such as rice paddies, and
from Arctic seabeds
Methane is another extremely potent greenhouse
gas, ranking right behind CO2. When organic matter
is broken down by bacteria under oxygen-starved
conditions (anaerobic decomposition) as in rice
paddies, methane is produced. The process also
takes place in the intestines of herbivorous animals,
and with the increase in the amount of concentrated
livestock production, the levels of methane released
into the atmosphere is increasing. Another source
of methane is methane clathrate, a compound
containing large amounts of methane trapped in the
crystal structure of ice. As methane escapes from the
Arctic seabed, the rate of global warming will
increase significantly.

4. Global Warming Cause: Deforestation, especially

tropical forests for wood, pulp, and farmland
The use of forests for fuel (both wood and for
charcoal) is one cause of deforestation, but in the
first world, our appetite for wood and paper
products, our consumption of livestock grazed on
former forest land, and the use of tropical forest
lands for commodities like palm oil plantations
contributes to the mass deforestation of our world.
Forests remove and store carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere, and this deforestation releases large
amounts of carbon, as well as reducing the amount
of carbon capture on the planet.

5. Global Warming Cause: Increase in usage of

chemical fertilizers on croplands
In the last half of the 20th century, the use
of chemical fertilizers (as opposed to the historical
use of animal manure) has risen dramatically. The
high rate of application of nitrogen-rich fertilizers
has effects on the heat storage of cropland (nitrogen
oxides have 300 times more heat-trapping capacity
per unit of volume than carbon dioxide) and the run-
off of excess fertilizers creates ‘dead-zones’ in our
oceans. In addition to these effects, high nitrate
levels in groundwater due to over-fertilization are
cause for concern for human health.

6. Global Warming Effect: Rise in sea

levels worldwide
Scientists predict an increase in sea levels worldwide
due to the melting of two massive ice sheets in
Antarctica and Greenland, especially on the East
coast of the U.S. However, many nations around the
world will experience the effects of rising sea levels,
which could displace millions of people. One
nation, the Maldives, is already looking for a new
home, thanks to rising sea levels.

7. Global Warming Effect: More killer storms

The severity of storms such as hurricanes and
cyclones is increasing, and research published
in Nature found:
“Scientists have come up with the firmest evidence
so far that global warming will significantly increase
the intensity of the most extreme storms worldwide.
The maximum wind speeds of the strongest tropical
cyclones have increased significantly since 1981,
according to research published in Nature this week.
And the upward trend, thought to be driven by rising
ocean temperatures, is unlikely to stop at any time
soon.”

8. Global Warming Effect: Massive crop failures

According to recent research, there is a 90% chance
that 3 billion people worldwide will have to choose
between moving their families to milder climes and
going hungry due to climate change within 100
years.
“Climate change is expected to have the most severe
impact on water supplies. “Shortages in future are
likely to threaten food production, reduce sanitation,
hinder economic development and damage
ecosystems. It causes more violent swings between
floods and droughts.”" – Guardian: Global warming
causes 300,000 deaths a year

9. Global Warming Effect: Widespread extinction of

species
According to research published in Nature, by
2050, rising temperatures could lead to the
extinction of more than a million species. And
because we can’t exist without a diverse population
of species on Earth, this is scary news for humans.
“Climate change now represents at least as great a
threat to the number of species surviving on Earth as
habitat-destruction and modification.” Chris
Thomas, conservation biologist at the University of
Leeds

10. Global Warming Effect: Disappearance of coral

reefs
A report on coral reefs from WWF says that in a worst
case scenario, coral populations will collapse by
2100 due to increased temperatures and ocean
acidification. The ‘bleaching’ of corals from small but
prolonged rises in sea temperature is a severe
danger for ocean ecosystems, and many other
species in the oceans rely on coral reefs for their
survival.
“Despite the oceans’s immensity — 71 per cent of
the Earth’s surface with an average depth of almost
4km (2½m) — there are indications that it is
approaching its tipping point. For reefs, warming
waters and acidification are closing in like a pair of
jaws that threaten to make them the first global
ecosystem to disappear.” – Times Online: 21st-
century Noah’s Ark needed to save coral reefs from
extinction