P(A)+P(B)-2P(ANB) =p P (Exactly one of the events B or C occurs) =p => P(B)+P(C)-2P(BAC) =p fa) P (Exactly one of the eventsC or A occurs) =p => P(C)+P(A)-2P(AMB) =p lil P (All the three events occur simultaneously) =p? = P(A BC) = p? Gv) Adding (i), (ii) and (ii), we get 3 P(A)-+ P(B)+ P (C)-P(AB)-P(BAC)-P(An) = ee 0) Required probability = P (4 UB UC) P(A) + P (B) + P(C) ~P(AMB)—P (BAO) ~ PANO) +P(AMBAO) 3p, 92. 39+ 292 Det 2 XAMPLE 7 The probabilities that a student passin Mathematics, Pkysies and Chemistryarem, pan respectively, Of these subjects, Ure student has a75% chance of passing in atleast oe, a 50% chance in al least tao and « 40% chunice of passing in exactly two. Find the wile passin prmec SOLUTION Let A, Band C be three events given by A = The student passes in Mathematics fi = The student passes in Physics C = The student passes in Chemistry I is given that P(A) = p, PB) = mand PC) = wo PIAUBUG) = 2 100 50 at) PIAA B) + P(BOC)+ PIC AA) -2P (AN BAC) 100 4 i) PIA MB) + P(BAC) 4 PIC A) ~3P (AD BAC (AB) + P(BAC) 4 PC HA) ~3P( al[Using (vol PADD PARQ) -P(CnA)+P(AnBAO = 2 AOB)=P(BNO) +P (COAL? (ANB, [Using (iv) and (w)] 5 be two events associated with a random experiment. Then, the probal under the condition that Bhas already occurred and P (B) = 0, iscalled the nd it is denoted by P(A/B). Thus, we have sbability of occurrence of A given that Bhas already cocurred then P(A) + Ois defined as the probability of occurrence of event Bwhen A of symbols P(A/B) and P(B/A) depend on the nature of the events theatre of the random experiment. These two symbols have the following Probability of occurrence of A when Boccurs OR Probability of occurrence of A when Bis taken as the sample space : OR Probability of occurrence of A with respect to B. ~ Probability of occurrence of B when A occurs OR Probability of occurrence of B when A is taken OR Probability of occurrence of understand properly the meaning as the sample space Bwith respect to A ‘of conditional probability let us discuss the . ls. Teo bas are craton from the : taining 5 white and 4 red ba anion Let there ier bag. = ede the following events: 7 the other eee sr sera B= Drawing red all inthe second draw ite ball in : wing a whiGi 30.10 MATHEMATICN Now P(B/A) = Probability of drawing a red ball in second draw given that a whi pay has already been drawn in the first draw = P(B/A) = Probability of drawing a red ball from a bag containing 4 white ang , I 4red balls : = Poyay=t= 8 2 J For this random experiment P (A/B) is not meaningful because A cannot occur afjer the . occurrence of event B. gen sjarly In the above illustration events A and B were subsels of to different sample spaces 1s Hy ye outcomes of too different trials wick are performed one after the other. ILLUSTRATION 2 Consider the random experiment of throwing a pair of dice and to events asseriaing shese Te i vith it he ill ee probabi = The sum of the numbers on two dice is 8 = {(2, 6), (6, 2), (3,5), (6, 3), (4, 4)} ;. ; = Thereis an even number on first die = {(2,1), (2, 6), (4,1), (4, 6), (6, Hy onpl6, 6) In this case, events A and Bare the subsets of the same sample space. So, we have the following meanings for P (4/5) and P (B/A). Probability of occurrence of A when B occurs Type T or Probability of occurrence A when Bis taken as the sample space, _ Number of elementary events in B which are favourable toA ‘Number of elementary events inB p(a/g) ~ Number of elementary events favourable toA QB 3 Number of elementary events favourabletoB 18 P(B/A) = Probability of occurrence of B when A occurs. or Probebility of occurrence of B when. A is taken as the sample space Number of elementary events in A which are fayourable toB = P(B/A)= ‘Number of elementary events in = _p(gyay = Number of elementary events favourabletoA OB _ 3 iit) Number of elementary events favourable toA 5 LLUSTRATION A die is thrown twice and the sum of the numbers appearing is observe to be & WME ‘he conditional probability that the number 4 has appeared at least once? SOLUTION Consider the following events : A= Number 4 appears at least once, B = The sum of the numbers appearing 8 © Required probability = P (A/B) Probability of occurrence of A when Bis taken as the sample sPs* __ Number of elementary events favourable to which are favourable 108 Number of elementary events favourable to B ts favourable to(A-yB) _ 2 "Number of elementary events favourable to B 5 It follows from illustrations 2 and 3 that if A and B are two events associated with the #6 sample space Sof a random experiment, thenae nt viding numer itor al 9 d ae ral ind denominator by (5)] np Pe ae P(A) sults have also been derived j rived in the next section by using multiplication theorem on EXAMPLES BASED ON Pa /Ri=ZADB pip pa) _ NASD) 1B) i aia) tice is rolled. Consider the following events: 5i,B = 2,3}, and C = 2, 9,4,5) Find INCERT] (B/A) (i) P(ASC) and P (C/A) P(AnB/C) (iv) PAO B/C) ve,n(A) = 3,n(8) = 2.n(C) = 4 3), ANC = 3,5, AUBAC = 2,3,5)andANBOC = {3} L(A = 2,n(AUBod = Bandn|AnBac) = 1 1 n(A0B) 1 a ; m(Anc)_ 21 Ano _ 2 Mercv EC) =a) 8 n(AUBNOO) _ 3 n) 4 nAnsog 1 7 ate) 4 sced three times, Find P (E/F)in each of the flowing the third toss, F = Pleads on fist f70 losses = At lems 100 heads, F = At mast two hesds = At mont tuo tails, F = Ableast one tail a ivematt The sample space associated to the EIveH EY pe given by = (MH, HET, HTH, THE, HTT, TH TTA, = (HHH, HTH, THH, THY, F = qi, HET F {HHH} 1 and n(F) = -30.12 MATHEMATI¢g " pa Gi) We have E = (HHH, HHT, HTH, THY}, F =< {CTT, THE, TTH, HTT, THM, TH, Hip, Eq F = (HHT, HTH, THM) ; Clearly, (EF) = 3 and n(F) = 7 nEnF) 3 P(E/F) ie nF) fii) We have, E = (HHH, HAT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTHY F iT, HTH, THH, HIT, THT, TTH, TTT} ) noth F = (HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH} n(ENF) = 6 and n(F) = 7 pieyA) = REND WS B, Bo» nh) 7 : x Two coins are tossed once. Find P (E/E) in each of the following 3) E=Tail appears on at least one coin, F =One coin shows head Gi appears, F = No head appea NCER SOLUTION The sample space associated to the random experiment of tossing two cnine « given by S= (HH, HT, TH, TT}, (i) We have, E = {HT,TH,TT},F = (AT, TH} EF = (HT, TH} Clearly, n(EOF) = 2 and m(F) = 2 payn = MEO 2, : nF) 2 () Wehave, Conai Required probabitity = "EOF) _ 2 _ 4 | UAE ae R LE4 Mother, father and son line up at random for a family picture, Find P (A/B), Aan 8&* defined as follows: A = Sononone end, B = Father inthe middle Ne SOLUTION Total number of ways in which Mother (M), Father (B) and Son ($) can be line! & . s at random in one of the following ways: 2 MFS, MSP, FMS, FSi, SPM, SME We have, E A = (SMP, SFM, MFS, FMS} and B = \MFS, SFM} c AOB = [MES SEM} Clearly,n(A mB) = 2 and n(B) = 2 early Required probability = P(A/B) = MAOB 2 | n(B) 2 | EXAMPLES And Bare two events such that P (A) « 0. Find P(B/A),if (®) Aisa subset of B (i) ANB = 4 i : SOLUTION (i) IFA is a subset of B, then leanty AOB =A => n(AMB) = n(A) ' Ang(n0saBiliry pea) = HARB n(Ay 4, then n(A nk) = 9 mMAQB)_ o na) ~ aay = 4 couple has two children, Find the the children are boys, ifit is known that he children are girls if ts known that the older cid isn git children are boys, if fs known that atleast one of the children is a boy. omi0N Let B, and G(i=1,2) stand for the event that i! child be a boy and a git! ectively. Then, the sample 5 »» By Gye Gy Bae Op a 4) Consider the following events: A = Both the children are boys = {By By}, B= The older child is a boy ={B; By, Bi G2) 4.0.8 = {B, By} Clearly,n(4 9B) = Land n(B) = 2 Required probability =P(A/B) mane ; 1H probability that the older child is boy, INCERT] space associated to the random experiment is Consider the following events: Both the children are girls = {G, Gy}, B~ The older child is 2 girl = {Gy Ga. Gx Ba) ANB = GG} Ceay.n(A 9B) = Land OB) = Ey nA 1 Required probabilit 7 3 i) Consider the following events: ‘A = Both the children are boys = [By 2} B = Atleast one of the children is aboy = 12) By, By Gp. Gy Ba} AOB = (By, Bh vearly,n(A.B) = 1 and n(B) re aera Required probability = 7g = 3 smbers appenrieg ort Uhemt are different, fin the aa of dice is thrown. Ifthe too musnbers appenrs scifi dt robability 1 teu ofthe mabe js 6 Gi) the sure of the rmumters is or less (lit) the su he imbers is 4 SOLUTION Consider the following events sh pace moa ae B = Thesumof the numbers on fone ike es C = The sum of the numbers on WOE TE D = The ‘sum of the numbers on two dice s Clearly, a4 is . (2, 1), (2+ 3), (2 A= (2,2. Dalle 9.1. OE 49, 4,54 (3, 9), (3/5) 8 Ka Or ie 5 Bh 39), (6, 4), (Oe 5, 6), (6,14 (6, (5 B Be (G1 4) (4 240%, 9) and, D = 41,33 (3, 062) © = G0, 2),2 9, M5, 1, 2),(2, 1) (1, 3903, DY Clearly, A AB = (1,5) (6, 1-( 4,4 hr ad, AAD = 0, 9)(3 9) 8). (2. (3. D.(3, Ds (5.1.18, 45, 98, 4CLM © WANE) © MAD) =? ant (A) = 90 (© Reaqutvoat probatinty © e(aray = MAO a 2 nay 0 8 Require! pratanitity< p(p/ay = MOP) 2d ny 0718 Required probability » Pea) = MADE). A. 2 nay” 30” 18 SSN MLEE ie de Prono fuee and the eam of the numbers appenring is observed 10 be 6, Wha heb ta Uae inden has ape {fous once? INCERT Wor ho Falloaving events Sai oF the numbers appearing an two cice bs 6 (1,9), (8,19, 2,4), (4, 2, (3, Nuuwhor a has appeared at least ance EDDA, A 9. 4, (4, 9, A), A, 6), (6, 4p tok 61209) ® quireat probability = B(B/a) = MA OW 2 nay "5 NAMIE 4 rowen Hyoe times, Leenty A ard B are defined as below: \ = Cethogg ad ove third die, 8 = Getting 6 on the first and 5 on the second throw audslity oF A given that & has already ovcurred. (NCERT} CLEHON The sample apace 8 associated fo the ranclom experiment of throwing three dice GS 64 6 = 216 elements W \ 1400.20.00 94, (.49,(,5,40,0,6.4 U4, (22,0, 02. 3,0, (2 49.028, 4, 2, 6 4) (61.6, 2.46, 8.4.66, 4, 9), (6,5, 4), (6, 6, 0} st A 168 0,65, D. (6.5, 9, (6,5, 0, (65,5), (6,5, 6} . Fu Ak = 1654) ade MAAR 1 " Required probability = P(A/E) = - samedi Sh ny) "6 AANUPLE 1 A Nao vo dive are rolled int order, Find the conditional probabil ( ov grater than 9, given that the black die resulted in a 5. some 8, gen atthe real le readtet in a ruatder les thar d, SOLUTION () Consider the flowing events 4 = Getting a sum greater than 9, © Black die resulted in aS Charly, A= KK, 8, (6, 4d, (4, 6, (6,5), (8, 69, (6, 6) B® €5, 1,5, 2068, 3, Ah GSA Requi AmB © 45,9, (8, 6) 2m(A) = Ganda = 6 Heoce, Reuired prubabiity « P(A/i) = MAOM 6 2 9 lence, Required probability = # (A/a) = NEES «Sw (WO Conaiter the fatlowing events: A © Getting 8 as the stun, A Rect die remuted iva number hess than p Charly, A (2 6, ASL, dD PA Be DODO VEVE DEAE DAMA pa2e4) . (C2 MD, 2D, DP P,are girls tis koa th ient chosen raadoraly event that a student chosen randonuly studies in nosen student is a girl. We have to find P (4/2), 10 ass XILand Bs £430 = 430% 12 — sgand, (a) = 430 io MADE) 1 pam Be 8 1 ¢ m(B) 430 «10 dat random from the question bank, mat isthe p multiple choice question: at selected question isan easy question and Bbe the even ple choice question 800, n(B) = 500+ 400 = 900 sion is an easy multiple question By _ 500 1002016 waTHEMATICg 2 exameceas IfP(A)= ©, p(B) = 5 and PAB) z find 6 @ P(ANB) (ii) P(A/B) (iil) P(B/A) tnetep, : SOLUTION (i) We know that P(AWB) = P(A) +P(B)-P(AOB) = P(AMB) = P(A)+ P(H)-P(AUB) = £4 5-7 2 4 i ike ty oe @ “Piaget P@) B/S P(AnB 4M _ 2 @ Pre =2AoR a P(A, 6/3 else PTA ae p(B) = Zand P(AsB) = 2 EVaMPLE ie EealaleP (A GB i€2P (A) = PB) = Sand (arB) = 2 ine SOLUTION We have, 2P(A)

Ap Ay) represents tho conditional probability of he event A; , given that the events Aj, A), ..., Aj_ ; have already occu Seite foo) This theorem can be proved by using the prineiple of mathematic draw re esp | © Probab"LUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES LEVELY Hock balls. 00 balls are drawn WY, B= Getting. a black ball in second draw Min first draw and a black ballin second draw [By Multiplication Theorems) £ jetting a black ball in second draw when a white ball has iraywn in first draw 4 ball ase left after drawing a white ball] w outof which 13 are black Bea err 5 (A@ 8) = P(A) P(B/A) = Ex? = > y of draiving a diamond card in each ofthe two consecutive draws froma irddrawn te not replaced after the first drew. of drawing a diamond card in the firstdraw and Bbe the event of he second craw. Then, 51 cards are left out of which 12 cards are diamond ‘o-a diamond card in second draw when a diamond son dvaven in first draw P(A) PBA) = GX iy = y pian) ack bal, If our bulls ave draw on all white al setting a whit ne ball in first, second, third and to events of § 1 deno! Then, pars p(D/AeBOc) (Ay P (BLA) AfSido MATHEMATICS pf? Now, P(A) = Probability of drawing a white ball in first draw 07a N 11 When a white ball is drawn in the first draw there are 19 balls left in the bay Out Of Which {yy tied white rae 4 9 P(B/A) Since the balll drawn is not replaced, therefore aft eawing, a white ball in second draw they are 18 balls left in the bag, out of which 3 are white, PC/AnB=3 =! Ri) 18 6 After drawing a white ball in third draw there are 17 balls left in the bag, out of which 2m white P@/ANBAC) = 2 7 Hence, Required probability = P(A ABAC AD) i = P(A) P(B/A) P (C/A aB) P(D/A MBanc) i ae pees 4°19" 6°17 ~ 969 AgnirLes A bag contains 19 tickets, numbered from 1 1019. A ticket is race and them another ther 4s drawn without replacement. Find the probability that both tickets will show even numbers SOLUTION Let A be the event of drawing an even numbered ticket in first draw and B be the AM event of drawing an even numbered ticket in the second draw Then, Required probability = P(A 7B) = P(A) P(B/A) 0 Since there are 19 tickets, numbered 1 to 19, in the bag out of which9 areeven numbered vi 2 4 N 6,8, 10, 12, 14,16, 18. re, if Y Pi) = 2 Since the ticket drawn in the first draw is not replaced, therefore second ticket drawn is fom Req the remaining 18 tickets, out of which 8 are even numbered, 84 piBja) = & = %. 9 Substituting these values in (), we get coat 9 Required probability = P(A mB) = P(A) P(B/A) = x5 = 15 rate Pxanuries Arun contains 5 white and 6 back balls: Two successive drawings of three balls at 28 ‘ sare nude suck that the ballsare not replaced before the second dra, Fil the probability that the =? 2 (Sem gives 3 white balls ancl second draue gives 3 black balls. . SOLUTION Consider the following events: a Then A= Drawing 9 white balls in frst draw, B= Drawing 3 black ball in the secon Required pr Required probability = P (A.B) = P(A) P(B/A) ‘ Now) PA) miqgd = 2. = 8 Now, p 3c,” 286” 143 r e black balls After drawing,3 white balls in first draw 10 balls are leftin the bag, out of which Sare back PS ae any Mie 320 ie P (BIA) Substituting these values in (i), we obtain Bou ee PG Required probability = P(A. B)= P(A) P(B/A) = 743" 15 ™ 439 Bin,gooam oS) ant Ry denote the events of — =1~P(RYA(RY/RY ty of not getting a ret ball in first draw Hy of getting an other colour (white or black) ballin first draw ball is brawn in first draw there are 5 other colour (white of which one other colour ball can be drawn in °C ways nes in (0, we obtain = 1-P(RY P(R2/RD = 1 ry of electric bulbs Fr nat replacement. If either bulb is defectioy, the ents . eres 5 defectene bulbs. imal the provabls the sax Ciwarly, the sample will be rejected if at least one o ¢ consider the following event= > is detective. B Second bulb is defective. P(AUB _ 1-P(vA .1-P(ayPe/Al= xi probability Pairs of balis are drawn i of ome white and one red bail is and n red balls. ent of getting one white and one eed ballin ah Pid Ar 9 Az A, 3)Substiniting these values in (), we get min 2 ed Required probability ata fe et ¥ rer Ow NS aT” Gar hy EXERCISE 902 | LEVEL 1. From a pack of 52 cards, two are drawn one by one without replacement. Find thy probability that both of them are kings, Froma pack of 52 cards, 4 are drawn ane by one without replacement, Find the peobsbiliny that allare aces (or, king INCERT EXEMPLAR) Find the chance of drawing 2 white balls in succession from a bag containing 5 red and 7 nnot bei white balls, the ball first dra 13 roplacexd 4. Abag contains 25 tickets, numbered from 1 10.25, A ticket is drawn and then another ticket is drawn without replacement, Find the probability that both tickets will show even 5. From a deck of cards, three cards are drawn on by one without replacement. Find the probability that each time itis a cardl of spade. 6, Two cards are drawn without replacement from a pack of 52 cards, Find the probability that ()) bothare kings (ii) the first is a king and the second is an ace (ii) the first isa heart and second is red. A bag contains 20 tickets, numbered from 1 to 20. Two tickets are drawn without ‘eplacement. What is the probability that the first ticket has an even number and the second an odd number 6. Anum contains 3 white, 4 red and 5 black balls. Two balls are drawn one by one without replacement, What is the probability that at least one ball is black? A bag contains 5 white, 7 red and 3 black balls, If three balls are drawn one by one without replacement, find the probability that none is red [CBSE 2002¢} cds and then a second card is draws. econd card isa diamonst ifthe first 10, A card is draven from a well-shuffled deck of 52 « that the first card isa heartand the Pind the probabili ard is not replaced 11. Anum contains 10 black and 5 white balls, Two balls are drawn from the ure. ane after the ier without replacement. What js the probability that both drawn balls are black? INCERT! 12. Three c ively, without replacement from a pack af 52 wel shail cards. What is the probability that first two cards are kings and third card drawnis an ace! INCERTI three randomly selectedt oranges drawn ea for sale ich vs are drawn sucee 15. A box of oranges is inspected by examinin| vithout replacement. If all the three oranges are good, the box is approve otherwise its rejected. Find the probability that a box containing, 15 oranges out O88 12.are good and 3 aro bad ones will be approved for yale. 14 A bag contains 4 white, 7 black and 5 ved balls, Three balls are drawn one went. Find the probability that the balls clrawn are white, black after the othe? ang red without replace respectively. 305.1 PRE heorems, THEOREM ROOF Also, Thus, Hen,A Werle «HF FONG Fy i) Hb ek FUR FG yh AGB yp od otiiay. weit rae PO) rite ida HF Mligfigs Mig MUN GH OOHEITIOHAL PRON ARIEFY itecadiscedl Fhe coming ty, 1 TN ee nocd toed Wt ERT AV (H/ Ay, WELAVAE HHA UE et) Arh tA Fil THEO LF CARTE HCI AL, PARE AREY of batuinereal rr nnd FUB/AD gy prepooett (her wwe wal pl HIAPH 4 mid L1H ee henley wet A/al30.24 THEOREM 2 If A isan event associated with the sample space Sof a ran P(S/A)=P(A/A) =1 ROO! We have P(S/A) NATHEMATIONS 1 experiment, then P(SOA)_P(A)_, P(A) P(A) Also, P(A/A) Hence, P(S/A)=P(A/A)=1 P|(A UBIC P(A DA) _ Pts P(A) PLA) A) 4 Qe, A and Ble tivo events associated with a random experiment and Sb the apple gpa. uch that P (C) » 0, then P(A/C) + P(B/C) =P (A 9 B/C) In particular, if A and Bere mutually exclusive events, then P|(A UB/C) =P(A/C)+ PBI) We have, (A B/C] = P(A UB/C) } U Pi(A upvc) P{(A uByc) = P(A UBC) = [a vByc)= 2 = Pla uByc) J P(ANO) PAUBAG PC) ) _ PKAnQUBOO} Pc) P(AAC)+ (BOQ - PIAA a(BoO) PO) P (ANC) +P (BAC)-P(ANBNC) PO P(BAC)_P(AN BNC) PC PC P(A/C) + P(B/C) =r (ia a ac) i Aan § aoe uastiatiy cocoate ee ae oa a wnjc)=0 PA mB/0)|=P (ase) +P (B/C) one THEOREM 4 If A and Bare two events associated with a random experiment, then P(A/B) =1 ~P(A/B) SOOE We know that P(S5/B) =1 % P\(A 2 A){B\=1 } - P(A/B) +P (ASB) =1 = — P(A/B) =1~P(A/B) Following examples will illustrate conditional probability. {See Theoret event f° Aand A are mutually exshist’® the applications of the above formulae ane! properti®,oBABILITY ri ks woz Cave) woul | fA and B are two eoenty such tat py 4/Byand P (B/A), ON We have, P(A) (A) =05, P18) = 0.6 and P(A Wf =08, find = 05, P(B) "06 and P(A UB) a0 We know that B= PA + PO) -Pnm (AB) = P(A) + PCB) — pia = PIA AB) nat AUB = 05 + 05-08 ~ 9 ee P(AMB) 03 _ 3 PB) 06 ~ 3 amd, PYB/A) = a (ar five events such that P(A) =0.3, PCB) =0.4 and P(B/A) = 0.5, find wrt? IfA and B are 8) end P(A UB), WON We have, P(A) =0.3, P(B)=06 and P(B/A) =05 (A 9B) = P(A) P(B/A) = 0.3% 05 =015 >(aym) = PAH) OI a ‘e P(B) 06 4 A) = 0.3, P(B) = 06 and P(AMB) = 015 P(A B)=P(A) + P(B)~ P(A mB) =03 + 06-015 =075 NILES IPP (nat A) =07, P(B) =07 and P (B/A) = 0.5, then fird P (A/B) and P(A WB) (ON We have, P (not A) = 07 or, P(A) = 07 P(A) = 07 P(A)=1-P(A)] Pa) = 08 e p(pay = PAOD BIN) = ey os . PAO) Tee (AnB) = 015 P(AmB) _ 045 _ 3 PAB) = ae ae a ri +P -P(AMB) = 0.3407 -015 = 0.85 ee “ : e a or associated with a random experiinent suc h that P(A) = 08, P ca bA,find (i) PAB) Gi) P(AZB) Gil) PAB) “LUTION (i) Wehave, P(B/A) = 04 + P(B/A) = 268A) PBA) gg PLA) Bi fy P(A) =08 (given)} (ANB) _o4 0B P(A AB) = 0.32 ‘i) We kno 9 thal oa PAB = eo 32 Peary ~22 068 [PAN B= 0.82 and P(B) = 05)P(A) = and, Py RequirSetting § on black die than 4 on red die. A= Both the nu Since the sum of two integerPADD Required prob =P(A/B= : ” tequired probability = P (A Pe x FLAMPLE 11 10% of the bulls produced in a factory are ned colour and 2% are red amd defect ang r bulb és picked at random. determine the probability of its being defective if it is red. INCERT EXEMPLagy : TION Consider the following events: A = The bulb produced is red, B= The bulb produced is defective. i 0 i it is given that P(A) = — Itis given that P(A) = 72 Required probability = P(B/A) EXAMPLEI2 A couple has 2children, Find the probability that both are boys, if itis known that omeaf - the children isaboy (ii) the older child isa boy. (CBSE 201g, 2g x SOLUTION Let B; and G; stand for i child be a boy and girl respectively. Then the sample space can be expressed es 5 = {B; By, By Gp, G By, Gy Goh C Consider the following events: A= Both the children are boys; B = One of the children is a boy; C = The older child is aboy : Then, A =(B; By), B=(B; Gp, By By,G; B) and C =[B, By, B Ci] ¥ AB = {B, B)} and ANC = By, By} , P(AOB _ V4 _1 @ Required probability = P(A/B) = ———— = —— = — aie oT ee WO : P(AnC) _ V4 1 (i) Required probability = P(A/c) = —=E2O _ Ve 1 Re eI ee PO 22 EXAMPLE 15 Consider a random experiment in which a coin is tossed and if the coin shows head ® © x tossed again but if it shows a tail then a die is tossed. If 8 possible outcomes are equally likely, find the probability thal the die shows a number greater than 4 if it is known that the first throws oF the coe ina tail, (CBSE 0H SOLUTION The sample space $ associated with the given random experiment is S={(H.H), (H.T),11), (7, 2)(T,3)(T 4), (P, 5), TO). Ne Let A be the event that the die shows a number greater than 4 and B be the event that the throw of the coin results in a tail. Then, A = 47, 9)(1, 6) and B = ((T, 1), ,2,(T, 9. (7, MT, DT, Oo Required probability = P(A/B) = rane ® nace * : * : EXAMPLE 14 A coi is tossed twice and the four possible outcomes are assumed tobe epuaily Hy. BA is the event, “both head and til have appeared’, and B be the egnt, ‘at most one tal is obseroed P(A), P(B), P(A/B) and P(B/A). & SOLUTION Here, § = {HH,HT,TH, TT}, A =(HT,TH) and B= (HH, HT,TH) leg fe ACB = {HT,TH}.two bags. Therefore, P(A) =! and P (0) ~obability of dravring a red ball when first is selected = Probability of drawing a sed ball from lity of drawing a red ball from second bag. ~ toa die fs thrown, Find the probability of abtasnisga 6 given that experiment is ).(T, 3), 4), 0,3), sd onthe coin, B = Getting 6 on the dice. 2), (HL, 3),(H, 4), (H,5).(H, Qand B= (H, 6), (7,6) P(ANB) _ 1/2 _ 6/2 6 robability = P(B/A) = sitice of & students is selected at mndom from a group consisting oF 8b k girl in He cornmitee, calculate the proba here cer the following events: 1 girl on the committee, B = There are exactly 2 girls on the coA = (HT, TH, HM HH) and so ACB = (HH PiAy = 2, PAN =} [: S=(HH, HT,TH, Tp ‘ 4 MAAR ish 1 red probability « P(B/A) = ) P(A) 4 3 An instructor haya Yel bank: consisting of 300 easy TruefFalve questions, 200 dif (MCQ) and 400 difficull meultighe choke, the probability that wl bem ue/False questions, 500 easy multiple choice question’ tions. Ifa questions is selected at randam from the test bank, what ‘ tion given that ét is a multiple choice question. TION Consider the following events: E = The question selected is an easy question, ) = The question selected is a difficult question 0 T= The question selected is a True/False question, é M = The question selected is a multiple choice question. Y Total number of questions = 300 + 200 +500 + 400 = 1490 800 4 600 3 pp _ 500 5 POE iP PY 1400-7 14007 900 9 500 _ 5, P(M) and P(E M) = DS [600 1a a eae ae Required probability Pei) PEO) = ee j 5 A die is thrown three times, Evenis A and B are defined as follows: A:4 onthe third throw, B: 6 on the first and 5 onthe second throw. Find the probability of A given that B has already occurred, SOLUTION There are 6x6%6=216 elementary events associated with the random experiment Clearly, A= (1,1, 4), (1,2, 41, 3,4), (1, 4,4), (1,5, 4). (1, 6, 4),(2,1, 4), (2, 2,4), (2, 3,4 (2,4, 4), (2,5, 4), (2, 6, 4), (3,1, 4), (3,2, 4), (3, 3, 4), (3, 4, 4), (3,5, 2,3, 6 4 (4,1, 4),(4, 2,4), (A, 3, 9), (4, 4, 9), (4,5, 4), (4, 6, 4), G1, 4), ©, 2, eB, 3,4 6,4, 4), 6,5, 4), 6, 6, 4), (6,1, 4), (6,2, 4), (6, 3, 4), (6, 4, 4), (6,5, 4), (6,6, B = ((6,5,1),(6,5, 2), (6,5, 9), (6,5, 4),(6,5,5),(6,5, 6)) and, ANB=(6,5,4)} We observe thatn (A) = %6,n(B) =6 and n(A mB) =1 6 P(ANB) it and P(B)= 5 216 . P(AMB _ 1/216 1 Required probability = Fp = 6/216” 6 Three dice are thrown al the same timw, Find the probability of getting three two's i kriown that the sum of the numberson the dice was. st NCERTEXEN ‘Associated to the random experiment of throwing three dice there are SOLUTION 6% 6% 6 =216 elementary events, Consider the following events: ‘A =Sum of the numbers on the dice is six, B = Getting three twosability th ads English newsps he reads Hindi ne ability th E = Student reads English newspaper. 5 P (H) +P(E)-P (HAD) =1 Foi ADs PA) 3/5 3 = PUD ee On Ue 1 PB 7% 2 mibly consists of two subsystems say A and B. From prev 1g probabilities are assumed fo be krictvn. 2, P(B fails alone) = 015, P(A and B fail) ~0. (ii) PUA fais alone) er the following events: E=A fails, F = Bails 2, P(A and B fails) ~0.15 and, P (B fails alone) =0.15 P(EMF) = 015 and P(E OF) = 015 P)- PEA) =015 (F) =P EF) + 05 =015 + 015 ~0:30 iy, EOD. O18 1 P(A fails/B has failed) = P(E/PL = pip) = 03072 PUA fails alone) = PE P(E) ~ P(E MB) = 02-015 = 005 LEVEL-2 Three distinguishable balls are distriinsted ie Heree cols, Find the con ata the three accuapy ue same cell, given Hatt east fave af Uhr are 1m the sanMATHEMATICS-xi, 30.32 SOLUTION Since each ball can be plac 1 in three ways. Therefore, three distinet balls can be placed in three cells in 3x 3 3 Consider the following events: E ~ All balls are in the same cell, F ~ At least two balls are in the same cell All balls can be placed in the same cell in three ways. Now, P (F) = P (At least two balls are in the same cell) =1-P (Balls are placed in distinct cells) 621 pif) = 1-2 2 1- 7-7 Clearly, Ec F ENF=E . = PEnA-PH=-3 Required probability =P (E/pF)-P EOF) _ 3/27 1 EQ 27 + EXAMPLE Consider the experiment of tossing a coin. If the coin shows head toss it again but if it row a die. Find the conditional probability of the event ‘the die shows a numaber greater sat Ieastone tail’ {NCERT] SOLUTION The outcomes of the experiment can be represented in the following tree diagram. HD Head (t) << (HT) ca 2) (13) ‘Tail ™) Fig. 20.3 Outcomes cf the random experment The sample space Sof the experiment is given as S = 4H, H),(H, 1), (7,1), 1, 2, (T, 3), 1, 4), (T, 5), (1, The probabilities of these elementary events are: La EA Loi t Leet pqH,Hy=txte!, py, ny=-1x Par, 1y=1x f MH, Wm 5 5=y PADIS (= 3x ea idee cs 1a p(T. 2j=1«h- fotx tnd PG ded x tet PAT, 2 2G mre SEs (Aer xe seen : eieet pyr,5y =o) and,p qr, 6=2% b= Lialber tor ter rhak hl ree sl Consider the following events: ‘A= The die shows a number greater than 4, B = There is at least one tail Clearly, A=4T,5),(T, 6)}, B= KH, T)AT, WAT, 2 (T, 3), (0, A) (7 5), (8) and, A B=4T,5)(T, oh P(B)=P (H,1)} +P (,1)}+P (TD) +P AT, N+P ATA) +P ATS) +P AT, OF p(B) » P(A Req! H Pt ‘arty of) given t SOLUTION[See Fig. 30.3} 26 Required probability - P(a/B) = 2(408) _ 1/6 _4 _2 “P® ° 3/4 8 9 Here, the elementary events are not equally likely. So, we cannot say that! P(AmB) _ 2/8 _2 and so P(A, eet aca re OE TT/ae? der the experiment of throwing adie, if multiple of 3 comes up throw te die agin number comes toss a coirt, Find the conditional probability of the event ‘the coin shows @ at least one die shows a2’. 7B) =F (0, 5)} + PAT, oa t+ The sample space of the experiment is given by {3,2),(3, 2) (3, 3). (3, 9-(3, 9B, 8, (6,9), (6,2), (6, 3). (6, 4). (6,5) (6, 9) #),(,D, 2, H), 2.1), 4H), 4D, 8, HT ‘tes of the elementary events are: bxeaag =+ P(3.3= 1 xt eb, PUGO)= oo sy oa 1 3 1 “x (Po, = ras : (PG, = =o 1 1 P2, Eh= "i i 1 Pa Dh 7 P (5, H)}= a y, the elementary events are not equally likely. Con : sider the following evens: at wast one A=The coin shows a tail, Clearly, A= (,T,2,1), (4,10: die shows a2 1), B=K3 2, (6,202.1, (2,1) and, A B= &2, 7wir of dice is thrown, Find i pig ui di always exits an odd mug RN 4 he {dice is thrown, Find the eave eh a ene ERO of getting 7 a the Dumber ics rolled. 1 the aSSet ian Gd muta, what he prob vr of dice i throw. Fine! C8 ReBAbltty of wenting the sum § orm the probability that the sum of the ne pee Humbers showing on two dice is mers ane selected at random from integers 1 through 9. If the that both the numbers are odd. dies thrown twice and the sum of the numbers appearing is observed tobe 8. Wh wlitional probability that the nuimbjor Shas appenred at ectonea are thrown and it is known that the first die shows a 6. Find the probabilir um of the numbers showing on two dice is 7 mar of dice is thrown. Let Ebe the event that the sum is greater than or equal the event Sappears on the first-die”. Find P (E/F).I{ Fis the event” appears on ie”, find P (E/F). bability that a student selected at random from a class will pass snd the probability that he/she passes in Mathematics and Computer is the probability that he/she will pass in Computer Science ifit is knc sed in Mathematics? probability that a certain person will buy a shirt is 0.2, the probability that he w .0.3,and the probability that he will buy a shirt given that he buys a trou he probability thathe will buy botha shirt and a trouser. Find also the peobabi 1! buy a trouser given that he buys a shirt. school there are 1000 students, out of which 430 are girls. It is known that out of the girls study in class XII. What is the probability that a student chosen random. es in class XII given that the chosen student is a girl? ds numbered 1 through 10 are placed in a box, mixed up thoroughly an is drawn randomly. If itis known that the number on the drawn card is mon is the probability that itis an even number? me that each born child is equally likely to be a boy or a girl If a family cen, what is the constitutional probability that both are girls? Given that ungestis agit! (ii) atleast one is girl. ae 03,096 1 nu 31 O54 26 WPF any 9 w \ 1 iO}Pee MATHEMATICS. HINTS TO NCEAT & SELECTED PROBLEMS PAAR) =P pias 5 2.2 13° 5°13 PA UB =P(A) 4 PUN-Pianned ek? oft ms 26 13 26 O° PARR =P ys Pinerus sted Lot : an ui (i) P(ayp = PAB ant 4 PB ~ s/t ~ 5 (ii) Pippa) = PLAN _ a _ 2 PA) ofl 3 () Wehave, A= HHH, HTH, THH, TTHN); B= (Hu, HET) P(A/B =1 2 i) Wehave, A= (HHH, HTH, THH, HHT), B= {CTT, TTH, HTT, THT, HHT, THH, HTH P(A/B) =3 7 (iil) 4 = (HHH, HTH, THR, HEE, THE, rT, THY 8= (THK, HTH, HHT, TTH, THT, HTT, TTT} P. =e (4/8) ~5 % (i) Wehave, A= (TH, HT}, B= {HT TH} P{A/B) =1 (ii) Wehave, A= (HH), B= aT; P(A/B) =0 10. We have, A= (1,4), 4,2, 4), (1, 3,4),(L, 4.4), (15,4), (1, 6,4),(2, 1, 4), (2, 2, 4),(2, 3,4), (2, 4, 4), (2,5, 4), (2, 6, 4),(3,1, 4), 3, 2, 4), (3, 3, 4), (3, 4, 4), (3,5, 4), (3, 6, 8 (4,1, 4), (4, 2, 9), (4, 3, 4), (4, 4, 4), (4,5, 9), (4, 6, 4), (5,1, 4), S, 2,4), (5, 3, 4) 6,4, 4), 6,5, 4), (5, 6,4), (6/1, 4),(6,2,4),(6, 3, ,(6.4, 4), (6.5, 4), 6.6,4)) B = (6,5,1), (6,5, 2),(6,5, 3),(6,5, 4), (6,5, 5), (6,5, 6)} We observe that n(A) ~ 36, 1(B) = 6 and n(A mB) =1 36 nt 64 nb - eet aed Po FADE) = Fe BB 8 ae) Be 3 P(ANB)_1/3% 1 P(AMB) 1/216 1 lence, P. = = ==, P(B/A)= = - Haney FCO rnc wens) | P(A) 78h 76 11. The sample space Sis given by S = (MIS, MSE, FSM, FMS, SMF, SFM} Clearly, A=(MFS, PMS SMF, SFM), B= (MES, SIM} and 90 4-8 = {MFS, SM) PIAAB 2/6 1 ana, pp/aye2iAOB), 2/6 1 EMD sor 2/6 Pid)” 4/6 "2 19. Let A = Getting two odd numbers, B= Getting the pum as an even number Pian °C2/°C, c, 10 Required probability = P(A/B) =~ (7, (eps Oye, 34%, 16 os in class XU, B = Randomly chosen student is a gir!. 25. A= Student chosen randomly stucties in clase XI indlomly chosen student isa git 430) = 7) = 2M, and PAOD Fi95 PAB PAD =m 7 eoren THEORE OE“ute ball in first draw) # = Drawing a ted ball in second de then events A ane as the first draw result Aand Bas ball in first rst draw is not replaced back in the bu is increased or decreased accordiny {drawn in fitst draw is replaced back in the bag, ther 8) remains same whether we get a white ball or and P (i) = P(B/A} ‘ove discussion that if A and B are two independent events a iment, then A) = P(B) and vice-versa, cendent eevnts associated with a random experinvent, then PB) ‘us occurrence of f00 independent events is equal lo te preva of tet heorem, we have A) P(B/A) pendent events, therefore P (B/A) = P (3). A) P(B), ve independent events associate with a random experinnent Ay) = P(A) P (Ag) PCA) orem, we have 1A) =P (Ay) P(Ag/ AY P(Ag/Ay re independent events. Therefore, (Ay Ag) = PKAg) noe P (Anl A € (Ay P(Ag) PAD: Ay be mevents associated NTEVENTS. L#t Aj, 12 ben Leb Ay Ag pA rrastlly independent if the probability fo the product parte p 1 for i ? (A) PLA) for ff tod ENT EVENT aid to be yf ther ts equal P(A)) tor be pitt (A) BOAR) PLA) PIA) PAR 7 ‘heirae MATHEMATICS. xy number of independent events, then the mditions for there must by depron (Cy whereas. for their mnetual independen ns tha! mutually independent events are always paineive not be true as illu below ot cont 50 defective and 50 non-defectice bulbs, Two bulbs are drawn at acement. The events. A. B, Ca defined as @ whether (i) A, B,C SOLUTION We have 1 P(R) P(A B) = Probabi id ; 1 (and =1x 1.1. pan 3X Ett PAP that the first is defective and the second is non-defective (B90) = Probebility that both the bulbs are non-defective Vol at =ix tal. pipe. 223 eo and, Probability that both the bulbs are defective vet OeL ed (And) =txlalorpwme c Rg y (A) Hence, A, B, C are pairwise independent. Now, P(A BOC) = Probability that the first bulb is defective and the second is non-defective and the first and second are both defective ‘or both non-defective 0 and, P(A) P(B) P(C) Clearly, P(A OBAC) # P(A) P(B) P(C). Thus, A, B,C are not mutually independent LIMARES Incase of two events only associated to. random experiment, there smo distinction betwee their mutual independence and pairwise independence. THEOREM 3 If A and Bare independent events associated with a random experiment, then prove tal (i) A and B are independent events Gi) A and B areiudependent events (CBSE20171 (iii) A and B are also independent events INCERT! SOLUTION. Since A and Bare independent events, Therefore, P(AMB) = P(A) P(B) () This evident from the Venn-diagram (Fig. 30.5) that A. Band A > Bare mutually exclusive events such that (An B) U(A 9 8) = B. Therefore, by addition theorem on probability, we! have P(ANB)+P(A P(B) 0 o(A pi B) and B art jear fromt ch that (A Aa Probabitit If Ay, Probabits» mA Sd ; Fig 90.5 am (see Fig. 305) that A mB and A ri Barermutually exclusive #) = A. So, by addition theorem cn probability, we have PAY (AnB aoe {Using Ol A and B are independent events if A and B are independent events. yw that P(A OB) = P(A) PCB), P(AUB) P(A) + P(B)— P(A OB) [By Addition Theor P(A) + P(B)~ P(A) PB) P(A) ~P (BMP (A) p(A)| (1 -P (B)) = P(A) PUB) crm independent events till mean mutually independent rciated to a taridom experiment, Hen 4 are independent events 053 east one = P(AUB) P(A) + PAB) P(A NBS P(A) + P(B) =P (A) PAB) 1 -f) P(A) -P (+ P(A) PCB P(AY = PUB ® 1 P(A) PC) sare independent events unsoiaied seth arendom experiment, U ‘ scourrence of al least ane = P(A, Az An) 1 = PAA 1-PiAyoa, 1 PUA PA). PA 1s are independent if for andor experioue KB mt and B rel wih the frat ¢ PA) PB with the seconMATHEMATICS-Xy | ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES Ee Type T PROBLEMS ON PROVING THE INDEPENDENCE OR DEPENDENCE OF EVENTS EXAMPLE A coin és tossed thrice and all eight outcomes are equally likely. E “The first throw results in head” F : The last Hrrow results in tail Prove that events E and F are independent SOLUTION Let Sie the sample space associated with the given random « $ = (HHH, HHT, THM, HT, 7TH, HT, TAIT, TTT, & = (HET, HH, HTT, MRE F = (HHTATT, THT,TTT, EOP = (HHT, ATT} p@ = 9O -$ 2) py - 4 =} and PEEDA = 2 n@ 8" 2 82 3 eee Clearly, PES F) = x) = pe re) oo ee Hence, E and F are independent events. EXAN An unbiased die is thrown teoice, Let the event A be ‘ede number om the first throw” and theevent ‘odd number on the second throw’. Check the independence ofevents A and B. INCERT] SOLUTION Clearly, Total number of elementary events = 36 An odd number on the first throw means an odd number on first throw ancl any number on second throw. Therefore, favourable number of elementary events to event A is 3 6 P{A) neat 2 181 362 and, P(A 4B) = P (Getting an odd number on both throw: Similarly, P (B) Clearly, P(A > B) P(A) PB) Hence, A and Bare independent events. PXamPLes Three coins are tossed, Consider the events :E= three heads or tre tails, eads and G =A! most favo heads. Of the pairs (E, F), (E, G) and (F, G) which are indepe pendent? INCERT] de SOLUTION The sample space Sassociated with the experiment is given by $= (HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, 1TH, THT, HIT, TIT} Clearly, E = (HHH, TTT}, F = (HHH, HHT, HTH, THE) and, G = (HHT, HTH, THH, HIT, THT, 1TH, TIT} Abo, En k= (HHH) EoG=(TT,PoG= (HHT HTH TH} pipe tnt ofa) p@ae, PEND =~ PENG) =+ and PIENC PeyaEatP=aa5 PO ag, PENN = 5 Pl 8 Clearly, P(E. F) = P(E) P (P), but P (EG) # P(E) PG) and PAF 9G) « PAP) PG) So, Eand F are independents, £ and G are depenclent events and F aru G are also dependent events, EXAMPLES A fair coin and an wnbins B be the event 3 on the die.”. Check whether A and B areindependent ex cad die are tossed. Let A be tte event ‘head appears an te coin’ and vent or not INCERTI Sin Mila,MATHEMATICS. and, P(A, Aq Aq) = Probability that all the digits of the number on the drawn, ticket are unity P(A; Ag Ay) = 0 3 ve that pon P (Ay cog) = PAY) P (Ag), P Ag Ag) =P (AQ) P(A), P(A AD =P OAS) PA, 36 But, P(A; Ag Ag) # P(A) P (AQ) P (Aa) aa Hence. Ay, Ap and Ay are pairwise independent but not mutually independent ¢ throw once. fA is the event "the number appearing is a multiple of 8” and B thy ; enun ing iseven”. Are theevents A and B independent? CERT ain OLUTION rn that oat eras Ser ish p(s) = 2 = 672 P(A P (Number appearing is even and a nuiltipte of 3) E Number app A)» PB) 7 A end Bare independent events, dice are thrown together. Let A Be the eoont “getting 6 om te frst lie” aid bs sting 2on the second die", Are the events A and B inulependent? NCERT EXEMPA\ A LUTION The elementary events favorable to A are: (6,1), (6,2), (6, 3), (6,4), (6,5)-(6, 6) at to Bare: (1, 2), (2, 2), (3, 2), (4,2), G, 2), (6, 2). So, there is only gne elementary event vz, (6,2) favourable to(A £8 a Ae 61 1 P(A) = 2. = 2, P(B) = 2. = Land ANB) =— 6 6 » 3606 : : 36 11 Clearly, P(A nB) = 2-11-74) 2B). Dae = 5% CA) PO. _. saa Hence, A and B are independent events. ca Fora loaded die, the probabliities of outcornes are give as unuler: So.4 and Baren 2 3 PQ) = PQ) = 2, P(3) = POS) = P(6) = and P(A) => ; 10 Bene) 10 : 0 a two times, Let A and B be the events as defined below a 1 ting some number each time, B= Getting a total score of 10 or more ror nok A and B are independent events NCERT EXEMPALR TION We have, : A= ((1, 1), (2, 23, BoC, MoS, 5), (6, 6)} are, B= ((4r 6), (6, 4), , 8), (6,5) (5, 6) (6, 8) 52 $0, APB =I(6, 6), 5,5) 3 P(A) = P(A, 1) + PA2, 2)+ PC, 3) + PCA. 4) + PCB, 9) + PCO, 6) PUI) POA) + P(2) PC) + PLS) PCB)-+ PLA) PA) # PE) POS) PO) PLO) 2.2 Lea see tl tal (an 010710" 10°10" 10 101010 10" 10" 105 é PCB) = P(A, 6) + Pl6, 4) + PCB,5)+P46,5) + PG, 6) + PCG, 6) 4 Plays = P(4) PAB) at 46) PLA)» PCS) PAB) + P46) PS) + PES) 24) + PLO) PAO) ee tix i030 "10" 10" 10 10 10° 10 10 10 reog eter 12d io 100 1 ta 1 and, P(A) = P{5,5) + 216, 6) = PCS) PUB) + PIO) MO) = 70" 44" 1g" to 01 1 sia 1A and B are two events such that P(A) = *, pm) =) and PAA B)=* fing y= 5, P=5 7 P (not Aand net B). SOLUTION We observe that ieee P(AnB) POA) PB ( Tats Py So, 4 and Bare independent ovents, Now P (not 4 and not B) = P(A B) P (not A and not B) = P(A) P(B) Parone! ght Pinot A andnot = (1-2) (1-1 . da as ia Nal ar FOR Events E and F ave independent, Find P (E), fP (B) =0.35 and P(E WF) =08, SOLUTION Wehave, PEGA) = P®+P(H-PENH > P(EUF) = P@ +P) PDP fe Band F are independent A and B are independ PEEUR = P@4+ Pini -P(e)} 06 = 0.354 P(F) (10,35) [Substituting the values of P (£) and P (ELF, 0.25 = (0.65) P(F) 025 _ 5 065 13 If P(A) =04, P(B)=p, P(A UB) = 0.6 and A and B are given to be indep ind the value of p. SOLUTION Since A and B are independent events, Therefore, P (A > B) = P (4) P (B). We know that P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)-P(ANB) > P(A UB) =P (A) +P (B)~P(A) P(B) [-P(AnB)=P(A)P 5 f => P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)|1 Peay) 06 04+ p(l—O.4) [+P (4) 04, P(A UB) = 06 and P(B) =p) 02 = 06p > p = 1/3. Let A and B be two independent events. The probability of their simultaneous occurren 1/8 and the probability that neither occurs is 3/8. Find P (A) and P (B). SOLUTION Let P (A) =x and P (B)=y. We have, P (AB) =1/Band P(A 0B) = 3/8 Now, P(AMB) = 1/8 4 => PCA) P(B) = 1/8 = xy = 1/8 5 Since A and Bare independent events. Therefore, so are A and 3 Thus, P(A MB) = 5 3 =) P(A) P(B) = 5 ao = (l-st=yas2.22 a PB ken a 30” "15 mit 30y?—20y44-0 wine 30y? —24y-By +40 out 6y (y-4)-1 Gy-4) =0 = (6y-1) Gy-4)=0 => yah or y ssi) When y= sat 1 1 Putting y = “in (ii), we obtain x = ngy = in (i), wo obtain x =2 CASE IL When y : ie 5 Putting y= in Gi), we obtain x =8. Thus, P(A) = and P(B)=1 o P(A) =5 and PCB) =* me 5 6 é 5 out PAMPL 1 A.and B are to candidates seeking admission in a college. The probability that A is eda selected is 0.7 and the probability that exactly owe of them is selected is 0.6. Find he probubility that B is selected. INCERT EXEMPLAR] SOLUTION Let Eand F be the events defined by E =Candidate A is selected, F = Candidate Bis selected Clearly, F and F are independent events, Itis given that P(E) =07 and e nAvEn ») =06 Now, 1(enRvEon)=06 uu Eand F are independent events} > P(E) + P(F)-2P (EMF) =06 P(E) + P(F) -2 P(E) P(F) = 06 : 07 + P(E) -2x 07 x P(F) =06 Seoit 07 + P(F)-14 P(F) =06 04 P(F) =07 -0.6 m=t a Hence, the probability that Bis selected is 7 ON FINDING THE PROBABILITY OF SINULTANEOUS OCCURRENCE OF INDEPENDENT EVENTS PXAMPLE 2% A bag contains 5 white, u replacement, what és the probability that none is white? SOLUTION Let A, B,C and D denote theeventsof a8) ae ae and fourth draw respectively. Sinee the ie Is are A, B,C and D are independent events such P(A) = P(B) = PC) = PD) Type U1 7 red and 4 black balls. If four balls are dracen ome by one with a white ball in first, second, thir lacement. Therefore2047 balls out of which 11 arenot white. nsnot white, Therefore, P(A) =11/16= P(i) =P (C) =P (D} ‘lity = RCA ‘ BOCAD)~ P(A) P (a) PC) PID) - (2 16 Tes 25 of them are girs and 55 boys; 10 of themar rich andthe mplexioned. What isthe probability of selecting a fir complexioned oe jecting @ fair complexioned student; B = Solecting a rich student; a) P(AMBacy PLA) PO PC) [+ A,B,C are independent events] "28" 46 7 52 Slack balls and a second bag contains 6 red and 4 black balls. A 5 te probability tat bot are () re (t) black. et 4 be the event that ared ball is draven from firstbag and Bbe the event thata » fom the second bag, Then, A\and B are independent events such that 1 and P(C) = 56 ability = P(A 98) = P(A) P(B) = 2x5 = > i ) = P(A) PH) = x the events of drawing a black ball from first and second bag respectively. independent events such that P (A) ~5/8 and P (B) = 4/10. 541 4 probability = P(A08) = P(A)P(@) = 2x5 = 5 bilit P(A B) = P(A) P(B) Sone ice-man fires four bullets on a dacoit. The probability that the dacoit will be killed by at is the probability that the dacott is still alive? j =1,2, 3, 4be the event that the dacoit is not Killed by the * bullet. Then, 6 = 0.4. If the dacit is alive after four shots, then non of the four shots hits the 4 shots are independent. bility that the dacoit is still alive = P(A, 43 043 9.49) ‘ P (Ay) P (Ap) P (Ag) P (Ag) (o.4}4 = 0.0256. Teo dice are thrown. Find the probability of getting an odd nacnaber on the First die anu a te other. Consider the following events A= Getting an odd number on fit de, B= Getting « multiple of 9 on the second die and B = (3/6) 1 rine we = band P= 3 * 5 6 Required probability = P(A0.B) id p= be} = 2 (Aad byesMATHEMATICSx4, 30.49 with the given experiment. An odd number «din one of the following 6 ways: ALLER ‘Thereare 36elementary events associat on the firstdieand a multiple of 3on the other ¢ G3. 6), (3.1), (3, 6,6, 11,6, 6) beobt Required probability 366 Type IV ON FINDING THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE OF AT LEAST ONE EVENT FOR INDEPENDENT EVENTS EXAM A lug contains 5 white, 7 red and 8 black balls. Four balls are drawn one by one with placement, what isthe probability that at least one is white? SOLUTION Let 4 be the event that ball drawn in ith draw is white 1 B) =1/6, then © ind find P (8). (CBSE 25} sable’ ©. 4 and Bare two independent events. The probability that A and B occur is 1/6 and the 7.077 probability that neither of them occurs is 1/3. Find the probability of occurrence of two events. 05 0. Tf and B aratwo independentevents such that P(A U B) = 0.60 and P(A) = 02, find P (B). ‘ 11. Adicis tossed twice. Find the probability of getting a number greater than 3on each toss az 2. Given the probability that A can solve a problem is 2/3 and the probability that B can solve the same problem is 3/5. Find the probability that none of the two will be able to solve the ; problem. An unbiased die is tossed twice. Find the probability of getting 4,5, or 6 on the first tossand nw 1,2,3 or 4 on the second toss, 7 81 A bag contains 3 red and 2 black balls. One ball is drawn from it at random, Its colour is ee noted and then it is put back in the bag. A second draw is made and the same procedure is repeated. Find the probability of drawing (i) two red balls, (ii) two black balls, (i) first red and second black ball. 5 Three cards are drawn with replacement from a well shuffled pack of cards, Find the fv) E probability that the cards drawn are king, queen and jack. ‘An article manufactured by a company consists of two parts X and Y. In the process of manufacture of the part X, 9 out of 100 parts may be defective. Similarly, 5 out of 100 are likely to be defective in the manufacture of part Y. Calculate the probability that the assembled product will not be defective. 17. The probability that A hits a targetis 1/2 and the probability that B hitsit, is2/5. Whatis the probability that the target will be hit, if each one of A and B shoots at the target? 15, An anti-aircraft gun can take a maximum of 4 shots at an enemy plane moving away from it. The probabilities of hitting the plane at the first, second, third andl fourth shot are 0.4, 05. 0.2 and 0.1 respectively. What is the probability that the gun hits the plane? 19. The odds against a certain event are 5 to 2 and the exlds in favour of another event independent to the former are 6 to 5. Find the probability that (i) at least ane of the events will occur, and (ii) none of the events will occu 20. A die is thrown thrice. Find the probability of getting an odd number at least once, 21. Two balls are drawn at random with replacement from a box containing 10 black and 8 red balls. Find the probability that (i) both balls are red, (ii) first ball is black and Se red, (ili) one of them is black and other is red. eae 22. Anum contains 4 red and 7 black balls. Two balls are drawn at random with es Find the probability of getting (0) 2red balls, (ii) 2black balls, (il) coere oes lack ball. el,Oe OG A B08 coming Wo te sc ee ete, A comming te tie oy a cay ae eh ee a eg eb ee = peter and tae 2 Sonal nearest ents ache PLB 4 game saga a 8 oxo I om won cnmaee ay ccna I is BP ne Bars cnt 6 me et abc, Ae rae Z A) PB cheney ; oar ae gh sw cnet ot tt by a 2 the ghawen, 6 4 pete 1 ow thee eon Tha F(A and PB par a=-1-; oeate groeiny = FAB scupact Ancithe wide putesch enema deer, see ceegece #KTE ® ar Winat 1 the peobatbile O56 A30.88 (i) Required probability = P(A OB ) =P (AYP (BY = 558 5 h 2 h throw, i 1. 2 >). Let Ay denote the event of getting an odd number ini! (A) = 2 = ds i913 Required probability = P(A, UA; UAg) te con Hy Pa eae -(t=t [toh aee le “ut”, Ge 1=P(A) PAY) PAY ier 2 a)"8 2 Ri" Ge Consider the following events: be B, = ball drawn is red, & =i" ball drawn is black, where f= 1,2 Por i Non te etic ee eee ’ pie {) Required probability = P (Ry OR3) = PAR) PRD = 3g 4g gt 0 8 0 > ii) Required probability = P (BR) = P(B) P(Ra) = = * Py: P it (B, O Ry) P (By) P (Rg) is “18 BL Pe ) Required probability = P ((Ry > By) U (By > Ra) P (Ry OB) + P(B, A Rp) - PU P (Ry) PAB) + PCB) P (Ra) = bx e+ wae & , aM PLES 30.7 MORE ON THEOREMS OF PROBABILITY jubility that the previous sections, we have discussed these problems based on addition and quton C multiplication en theorems which require the use of anly one of the two theorems. In this R= section, we will diseuss problems based upon the use of hath the theorems, Following examples oe w lustrate the same. i Requ ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES LEVEL+ a .¢ contains 4 white and 2 black balls. Another contains 3 white and 5 black balis. Ifone : 1, find the probability that are white (Gi) both are black (iii) one is white and one is black. SOLUTION Consider the following events: Bhar W, = Drawing a white ball from firstbag, Wa, = Drawing a white ball from second bag. eye Drawing a black ball from first bag, By = Drawing a black ball from second bag, Mie | Clearly, P (Wy) =4/6, P (B,) =2/6, P (Wz) =3/8 and P (By) =5/8. SHER P (both balls are- white) = P [(white ball from Ist bag) and (white ball from 2nd bag)) S >: =P (Wy 0 Wp) Q P (W,) PAWN) {¢ Wy and W) are independent events) Reg 4.3 1 Gosek (ii) P (both balls are black) = P {(black ball from Ist bag) and (black ball from 2nd bag)] P (By Bp) = P (By) P(BD) By and By are independent events] 2 Beas t 7 ne ome month (iii) P (one white ball and one black ball) Sou ent P [(black from Ist and white from 2nd) or ( white from Ist and black from 2nd)} of tion vn RI in first draw and one blue ball raw and blue ballin second draw) or (blue ball in first draw and probability = P| (Ry 9K3) U(K; 0 Ro) = P(R, OK) + PRL ORD niion cwithout replacement from a ell shuffled d other is a queen of red cot ide card in # draw) i= 1, 2 TION Let Wi te the event of di a white ball in dra Ing a black ball in #" draw, where Requined probability = P 1M,wiry Aba ve acemen MATHEMATICS-xy POM OB OW, OR) + POR AW, 9 By AI) [By addition Theorem WA) PCR P (Wg AY) 9 BY) P C/I, Wy) f PCB) PW3/A,) P (Bly By, OW) PNG / By Wy 7 By [By Multiplication Theorem eSeSs2y S50 20 01 mumberad 1 1925. Teo oars are drawn after the oer. Fit the probability of 7 andl on the other itis a nualtiple of U1 ‘wo.cands can be drawn in the following mutually excl sive ways multiple of 7 and second bears a multiple of IL d bears a multiple Considi of and second bears @: multiple of 7 if we define the following events: First card drawn bea te a multiple of 7, Ay Second card drawn beats a multiple of 7, ed drawn bears a multiple of 11, By Second card drawn bears @ multiple of 11 Required probability = P [(Ay 0B) U(B, 9.43)) = PAL AB) +P(8, 0A) [By addition Theorem) = P(A) P (By/Ap + P (B,) P(Aa/B,) a Between 1 and 25, there are three multiples of 7 viz. 7,14, 21 and 2 multiples of 11 viz. 11,22. 3 3 P(A) P(B/Ay) = =, PtB) = 2, Paya) > Substituting these values in (i), we obtain Required probability = 2242, 3 _ 1 25" 24” 35” 24 ~ 50 rating P(A TAwsner | Bag.A contains 4 red and 5 black ball and bag B contains 3 retand 7 back balls, Oneball rawr from bag A and two from bag B. Find the probability thal outof3 bulls drton, keoareblackaed mc Require . SOLUTION Two black and one red ball can be drawn from two bags in two mutually exchssive AMPLE 9. Drawing one blackball from bag A and two balls from bag Bout of which oneis black and other is red (H) Drawing one red ball from bag A two black balls from bag A Thus, if we define the following events: £,= Drawing a black ball from bag A, £, = Drawing one red and one black ball from bag 8 £3 = Drawing one red ball from bag A, Fy = Drawing two black balls from bay B x7) 21 We a8, 1 P (Two black balls and one red ball) ; ? Then, PG) =2, Pe) PiEs)= 5s Pllyd~ Wp Now, = P [(1 black from bag A and one red and one black from bag i) or (one red from bay. A and 2 black from bag B89) PG) . = PLE OB) (Es NE) Mire, = P(E, OE) + P(E, Ey) [By adtlition Theorem} Proba P(E,) P(E) + P(E) P(E4) [By multiplication Theorem for independent events} 2 8524 ee, 945° 9° 15 ~ 135 * 15 \ =og contains 5 red mar rt, What i the probabil or i=1, 2,3, let Rj denote te ent “Getting a black marbel in Pdeene robability = P (RA ARa AB) Ute ge POR ARg By) 4 P(R hs) +PiRy rr PCR) P(R3/R3) PUBa/Ry Ra) + PUR,) PUB / 543 8 Consider the following events: Getting a red marbel in first draw Getting at least one black marbel in the last two draws ability = P (AB) = P(A) P(B/A} = PLA) fh -P(B/A) (Getting no black marbel in second and third draws when a red m Iready been drawn in firat draw) P (Getting red marbels in second and third drei marbel has already been drawn in first draw) children contain 3.girls and 1 boy; 2 girls and 2 bows: g n from each group. Find the chance that the ree groups of One child is selected at random irl and One gir! and 2 boys can be selected in the following mutually exclusive ways 1 Group? Group 3 Group 1 . Boy Boy Boy Gil Girl Girl Boy as the events of selecting che events of selecting, a boy from first A ne eyes ane independent events such that PU) Boy me dav th a git! from first, second and third grou dele a yecond and third y and By, By, By Then By, By, By, e 3 2 D (By ricy = 2, PG) = 2, MGs) = ge PMD P (electing 1 gisland 2 boys) (lor Hor WD) pail) PIG OB P (Gy 0B Be) + PBL in) PAG.) (Re) P (Ba) + PCB) PCa) F (By) Required probability By P (By) P (8) PGs)ae ee ip Bod oe 44004 eR EXAMPLE 10 The probwbilities of A, Band C solving a problem are 1/3, 2/7 and 3/8 respectively. If all the three try to solve the problem simultaneously, find the probability that exactly ome of them cart solve ik SOLUTION Let F,F and Fs be the events that the problem is solved by A, B and ¢ respectively. Th P(E) = 5, PU) = 2 and Pe) Exactly on of 4, Band can solve the problem in the following mutually exclusive ways: (@) Asolves but Band C donot solve ie. Fy rE, AE (1) Bsolves but A and C do not solve ie. Ey AF, AF (ill) C solves but A and B do not solve ie. Ey OE, Ey Required probability = P (I or ILor It} = PIE, 9 ME) UE, ni OF) UE, 0 AEs) = PAE, EZ OE) +P (Ey By E3) + PE, By V3) P(E,) P (Ep) P(E) + P (E,) P (Ey) P (Es) + P (Ey) P (Ep) P(E) 1 2), 3 BN eV Shalit 2\(3 3 Al-a0-F)G)0-20-0-212) A 12, ie rethey likely to ¢ 3 168 42 28 (56 PxomrLeas Three critics review a book. Ost in favour ofthe book are 5:2, 4: 3.and 3: 4 respectively for three critics. Find the probability that the majority are in facour of the book. ‘LUTION Let SOLUTION Let A, Band C denote the events that the book will be reviewed favourably by the nd F are indepr first, the second and the third critic respectively. Then A, B,C are independent events and we >(E) are given that 525 ces: ree eases P(A) = = 2,P (8) = —*. = 4 and PO ~ -3, Aand B Yi 2° 7 OR pa ee Or sea oy and B will The book will be favourably reviewed by the majority of the reviewers if at least two (out of mae three) review itfavourably. This happens in any one of the following mutually exclusive ways: * speaks ()) Ist favours, 2nd favours and third does not favour ie. AB AC P(Aar (Il) Ist favours, 2nd does not favour and third favours ie. A ABC P (III). 1st does not favour, 2nd favours and thitd favours i.e. A AB AC aE (IY) Ist favours, 2nd favours and third also favours ie. A BOC ey Required probability =P (I MUI UIV) = PIANBAC) ANB AE) UA OBAC) UAB AC) PE = PIAGQBAC) + PIAOB AC) + P(A MBAC)+ P(AMBAC) me [v Four events are mutually exclusive) ; 5 P(A) P.(B) P(C) + P(A) P (BYP (C) + P(A) P (BP iC) + P(A) PCB) PC) (See, in 429 [+ A, Band are independent} aa, 54,453 3.2 4 3,543, BOr de 24460 _ 209 y dB wi) "F277 Go ere 3 a8 and B EXAMPLE 12 A, Band C shot to hit a target. IfA hls the target 4 times in 5 trials: B hits it 3 times int Pay frials and C hits 2 tines in 3 trials; what is the probability thatthe target is hit by @ least 2 persons? SOLUTION Let £}, E and £3 be the events that A hits the target, B hits the target and C hits the target respectively. Then, E,, Ep, Ey are independent events auch that