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Statistics Ass.2

1. A manufacturing firm uses three analytical plans (Plan 1, 2, 3) for product development at varying rates (30%, 20%, 50%). Plan 3 has the highest defect rate (2%) and is most likely responsible if a random product is found defective (52.6% probability). 2. A person speeding has a 27% chance of receiving a speeding ticket based on the probabilities of passing four radar trap locations (40%, 30%, 20%, 30% operation) and his individual passing probabilities (20%, 10%, 50%, 20%). 3. A government agency uses three consulting firms (A, B, C) at rates of 40%, 35%, 25%. If a cost overrun

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33 views

Statistics Ass.2

1. A manufacturing firm uses three analytical plans (Plan 1, 2, 3) for product development at varying rates (30%, 20%, 50%). Plan 3 has the highest defect rate (2%) and is most likely responsible if a random product is found defective (52.6% probability). 2. A person speeding has a 27% chance of receiving a speeding ticket based on the probabilities of passing four radar trap locations (40%, 30%, 20%, 30% operation) and his individual passing probabilities (20%, 10%, 50%, 20%). 3. A government agency uses three consulting firms (A, B, C) at rates of 40%, 35%, 25%. If a cost overrun

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WOLLEGA UNIVERSITY

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING


MASTERS IN ROAD &TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING
STATISTICS FOR ROAD AND TRANSPORTATION
ENGINEERING
(CENGRTE6101)
PROJECT II
PROBABILITY

By: Temesgen W.
ID.No. WU1400209

Instructor: Mekonin. A

December, 2021
1. A certain federal agency employs three consulting firms (A, B, and C) with probabilities
0.40, 0.35, and 0.25, respectively. From past experience it is known that the probability of
cost overruns for the firms is 0.05, 0.03, and 0.15, respectively. Suppose a cost overrun is
experienced by the agency.
a) What is the probability that the consulting firm involved is company C?
b) What is the probability that it is company A?

Given
P (A) = 0.4
P (B) = 0.35
P(C) = 0.25
 Let D denotes the event that the company experience cost overrun. It is given:
P (D/A) = 0.05
P (D/B) = 0.03
P (D/C) = 0.15

Solution

a) We need to find the probability that the consulting firm involved is company C, i.e. we
need to find P (C/D).

P(D /C ) P(C )
P(C / D)=
P(D /C ) P(C)+ P(D / B)P (B)+ P(D / A) P (A )

0.15∗0.25
¿
0.15∗0.25+ 0.03∗0.35+ 0.05∗0.4

0.0375
¿
0.068

¿ 0.551

=55.1%
b) We need to find the probability that the consulting firm involved is company A, i.e. we
need to find P (A/D). using Bayes’ theorem, we get the required probability as follows:
P( D / A) P( A)
P( A /D)=
P( D/C) P(C)+ P(D/ B)P(B)+ P(D/ A ) P( A)
0.05∗0.4
¿
0.15∗0.25+ 0.03∗0.35+ 0.05∗0.4
0.02
¿
0.068
¿ 0.294
=29.4%
2. A manufacturing firm employs three analytical plans for the design and development of a
particular product. For cost reasons, all three are used at varying times. In fact, plan 1, 2
and 3 are used for 30%, 20%, and 50% of the products, respectively. The “defect rate” is
different for the three procedures as follows:
P (D/P1) = 0.01, P (D/P2) = 0.03, P (D/P3) = 0.02,
where P(D/P j) denotes the probability of a defective product, given plan j. if a random
product was observed and found to be defective, which plan was mostly likely used and
responsible?
Given
Let P1 = event that plan 1 is chosen
P2= event that plan 2 is chosen
P3= event that plan 3 is chosen
P (P1) = 0.3
P (P2) = 0.2
P (P3) = 0.5
Also P (D/P1) = 0.01, Also P(D/P2) = 0.03 and Also P(D/P3) = 0.02
Solution
To find the plan which is the most in a defective item, which plan was mostly likely used
and responsible? By considering Bayes rule.
P(D /P1 ) P( P1 )
P(P1 / D)=
P ( D/P 1) P (P1)+ P(D/ P2 ) P( P2 )+ P(D/ P3) P( P3 )
0.01∗0.3
¿
0.01∗0.3+ 0.03∗0.2+0.02∗0.5
0.003
¿
0.019
¿ 0 . 158
¿ 15 . 8 %
P(D / P2 ) P( P 2)
P(P2 / D)=
P ( D/P 1) P (P1)+ P(D/ P2 ) P( P2 )+ P(D / P3) P( P3 )

0.03∗0.2
¿
0.01∗0.3+ 0.03∗0.2+0.02∗0.5
0.006
¿
0.019
¿ 0 . 316
=31.6%
P( D / P3 )P(P 3)
P(P3 / D)=
P ( D/ P1) P(P1)+ P( D / P2 )P(P2 )+ P( D/ P3) P( P3 )
0.02∗0.5
¿
0.01∗0.3+ 0.03∗0.2+0.02∗0.5
0.01
¿
0.019
¿ 0.526
¿ 52.6 %
The conditional probability of Plan 3 used given a defect product is the largest of the
three 52.6%, so a defective products likely the result of the use of plan 3.
3. Police plan to enforce speed limits by using radar traps at four deferent locations within
the city limits. The radar traps at each of the locations L1, L2, L3, and L4 will be
operated 40%, 30%, 20%, and 30% of the time. If a person who is speeding on his way to
work has probabilities of 0.2, 0.1, 0.5, and 0.2, respectively, of passing through these
locations, what is the probability that he will receive a speeding ticket?
Given
Let R denote the event that a person will receive a speeding ticket.
The location of the radar traps are L 2, L2, L3 and L4 will be operating 40%, 30%,
20%, and 30% respectively. Mean that if she is spreading through location L 1,
there is 40% chance that she will get a speeding ticket.
Hence, P (R/L1) = 40% = 0.4
P (R/L2) = 30% = 0.3
P (R/L3) = 20% = 0.2
P (R/L4) = 30% = 0.3
A person who is speeding on his way to work probabilities of 0.2, 0.1, 0.5, and
0.2 of passing through locations L1, L2, L3, and L4 respectively. i.e.
P (L1) = 0.2
P (L2) = 0.1
P (L3) = 0.5
P (L4) = 0.2
Solution
We need to find the probability that he will receive speeding ticket. I.e. we need
to calculate P (R).
According to theorem of total probability,
4
P( R)=∑ P(R / Li)P (Li)
i=1

P ( R )=P( R /L1 ) P( L1 )+ P ( R/ L2) P( L2)+ P(R /L3 )P( L3 )+ P(R/ L4 )P ( L4 )


¿ 0.4∗0.2+0.3∗0.1+0.2∗0.5+0.3∗0.2
¿ 0.27

=27%

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