Probability: Experience
Probability: Experience
21) PROBABILITY
experience,
people often make
statements like:
nscod on past
This boy is likely to top the school in the ICSE examination this year.
Mostprobably it will rain today.
There is a good chance of India winning the cricket match against Bangladesh.
All these words -likely, probably, chance involve an element of uncertainty. Probability measures
nuimerically the possibility of an event happening. A numerical value is given to an event to show how
Tossing of a coin, rolling a dice or drawing a card from a pack of 52 playing cards are all random
experiments.
Sample space: The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is known as the sample
space.
An Event is a subset of the sample space. It is a well-defined collection of some specific outcomes
of an experiment. For example, in the experiment of tossing 3 coins simultaneously, the event of
getting exactly 2 heads is {HHT, HTH, THH}.
An Elementary event is an event with only one favourable outcome. For example,
when 5 identical cards are marked with numbers 1 to 5 picking a card with number 3 is an
elementary event.
A Compound event is an event which has more than one favourable outcome. For example,
in the above example picking an odd numbered card has favourable outcomes {1, 3, 5}.
then E is the event non-occurring.
Complementary events: If E is an event happening,
laking the above example of 5 cards, picking an even numbered card E = (2, 4 , E = {1, 3, 5), t h e n
Occurrence of an event
An ev c t occurs when the outcome of an experiment satisties the condition mentioned in the event.
For example, wh tossed if an event E is named as getting two tails and if the pair of
when two coins are
coins shows
w S two tails, we say that event E has occurred.
Favourable outcomes
The outcomes which ensure the occurrence of an event are called favourable outcomes. For ex
the favourable outcomes for an event E of getting a sum of 5 when two dice are rolled are ja example,
(4, 1), (2, 3), (3, 2)}. 11,4
Here (1, 4) means showing up 1 on the first dice and 4 on the second dice.
(i) P(S) =1
The probability of the sample space S considered as an event NOTE
has to be 1. It is called a sure event. For example, It probability of an event happening
1s P,then the probability of the event
when a dice is rolled, the probability of getting a
positive not happening is 1 -P.
number less than 7 is 1.
(i) For any sequence of mutually exclusive events E, Ez, Es their sum of probability is 1. r
Empirical/Experimental Probability
Here probability of an event E is based on what actually happens in the experiment.
D No. of trials in which the event occurs
Total no. of trials
ICSE Mathematics 10
(350
c o i n s are
22 coins
led 100 times and the results
rolle
whern are as follows:
e.g,
0 1
N o . o fh e a d s
2 Total
No. o f t r i a l s
14 56 30 100
14
robability of getting one head = 6
Here, pr 100 25 Fig. 21.1
NOTE
2. A pack of playing cards has 52 cards.
Total no. of
Random Experiment 52 Cards
outcomes
(i1) note at least 2 m e a n s or more favourable outcomes (io) at most one head?
Solution:
Totalnumber of outcomes 23 8 which are {(HHH), (HHT), (HTH), (THH), (TITH), (THT), (HTT), (TTT)}.
() Favourable outcomes for 1 head {(TTH), (THT), (HTT) =
un) Favourable outcomes for at least 2 heads = {(HHT), (HTH), (THH), (HHH
2 heads 3 heads
of getting at least 2 heads
= or =
Probability 8 2
Favourable outcomes for at most 1 head
=
{(TTT), (HTT), (THT), (TTH)
Probability of getting at most 1 head = 0 heads or 1 head =8 2
Example 2: If two dice are thrown simultaneously, what is the probability of getting on the uppermost
faces of the dice?
) a doublet (same number on both) (11) a sum of 7 (ii) a product of 12
(v) 4 or5 (vi) More than 10.
Gio) both are odd numbers.
Probability 351
Solution:
Total no. of outcomes = 62 = 36
P(product 12) ==
36
(iv) Favourable outcomes for both are odd numbers = {(1, 1), (1, 3), (1, 5), (3, 1), (3, 3), (3, 5), (5. 11
Probability = 36
(oi) More than 10 = 11 or 12
Probability =
Example 3: Some identical cards are numbered from 2 to 25 and well shuffled. When a card is drawn
randomly, what is the probability that the card has
() a prime number (i) a multiple of 2 and 3 (iii) not a multiple of 7.
Solution: From 1 to 25, there are 25 cards but 1 is not there.
Total no. of cards =24. or no. of cards = (25-2) +1
() A prime number = {2, 3,5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23)
P(prime)=
(i) A multiple of 2 and 3 =
a
multiple of 6 {6, 12, 18, 24)
P(multiple of 2and 3) =
(in) A multiple of 7 = {7, 14, 21), i.e., 3 cards but not a multiple of 7 = 24 - 3 21 cards.
. P(not a multiple of 7) =
12 =40.
352 ICSE Mathematics 10
bers
E v e nn u m b e r s {2, 4, 6, 8, 10} x 2 red suits 10
P(red e v e n ) = 1
=
favourable cards
40 4
A club odd number = {3, 5, 7, 9
i) i.e., 4 favourable cards
4
P(club odd) =
40 10
are no
Alack, there Jacks as all face cards are removed.
P(Jack)=00
40
Gir) A prime number = {2, 3 , 5 , 7} x 4 suits
i.e., 16 favourable cards
16 2
P(prime) =
40
vample 5: If All even numbered cards are removed from a pack of 52 playing cards. What 1s the
Exa
probability that a card picked up is
(i) a face card
(ii) a multiple of 3 of clubs
(ii) a red multiple of 5 io) a prime numbered card.
Solution: Even number cards ={2, 4, 6, 8, 10) x 4 suits i.e., 20 cards are removed.
N o . of cards left = 52 20 = 32.
16
(1) A red multiple of 5 - {5 of Hearts, 5 of diamonds) = 2 cards
32 16
(10) A prime numbered card = {3, 5, 7}x 4 suits = 12 cards
2
x = 2 x 5 10
No. of
green balls =
10.
Probability 353
made with 3, 5, 7 and 9,
what is the probability that the
Example 7: If two-digit numbers are
r
mber is
()greaterthan 55 prime number.
(ii) a
(ii) Consecutive days = {(Mon, Tue), (Tue, Wed), (Wed, Thurs), (Thurs, Fri), (Tue, Mon), (Wed, Tue)
(Thurs, Wed), (Fri, Thurs)}
8
P(consecutive days) 25
the probability that in January may have 5 Mondays if it is a
Example 9: Find a
year
(i) leap year (ii) non-leap year.
Solution:
(1) If 1st Jan is a Monday, then Mondays are {1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd, 29th
If 2nd Jan is a Monday, then (2nd, 9th, 16th, 23nd, 30th} are Mondays.
If 3rd Jan is a Monday, then (3rd, 10th, 17th, 24th, 31s) are Mondays.
But if 4th Jan is a Monday we can get only 4 Mondays in January.
P(in a
leap year) =
Example 10: A carton has 500 vests of which 480 are good, 15 have minor defects and 5 have ma
with
defects. There are 2 traders A and B. A accepts only the good vests whereas B rejects the vests w
major defects. What is the probability that a vest is acceptable to (i) A and (ii) B?
Solution:
No. of good vests 480 24
For A Probability
25
=
(1) >
Total no. of vests 500
Total no. -
ICSE Mathematics 10
(354)
A s contains 6 green, 7 red and3 white balls. A ball is chosen wvithout looking into
bag contains
probability
that the ball is
ind the 22) not white (Gi) white or green
red
green)
=
No. ofwhite balls+green balls6+3
Pwhite o r Total no. of balls 16 16
P
probability that a card picked up
are 12 cards numbered 1 to 12. What is the
le 12: There
Exam
domly has
a p r i m en u m b e r 2) a number between 3 and 11
Go) a cube number.
asquarenumber
Salution:
-5
9 Aprime number =23,5, 7, 11)
P(prime)=
Anumberbetween 3 and 11 =
4 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10) =7
Pbetween 3 and 11) =
12
Asquare number {1, 4 9} =3 =
P(square no.) =
)Acube number =
[1, 8) =2
P(cubeno.)26
of length
20 cm is drawn somewhere o n a rectangular paper
mple 13: A circle with diameter o n this paper
and assuming that the cube falls on
is thrown
and width 30 cm. If a small cube will fall
Paper, what is the probability that it (ii) outside the circle.
) inside the circle
Solution: 10x10 22x1001
Area of circde r
Probability of ffalling inside the cirde =
2-11_31
tObability of falling outside the ircle =1- 42
white and others black. Probability of getting a
Exampl There are 60 balls in a box. Some are
there?
white ball of black ball. How many
of each coloured balls are
1 getting a
Solution:
there be x white balls.
(6)-2) black balls.
Probability 355
black ball
Probability of white ball
= x
Probability of geting a
2
5 x = 180
3 (60-a) 2x 3(60 -x) =
180 -
3x
60 2 60
X = 36 white
36 =
24
EXERCISE 21
a
1. If a dice is rolled, what is the probability of getting
ii) number 7
(i) prime number (i) multiple of 3
of getting
what is the probability
2. If two coins are tossed,
(11) at least 1 head
(11) no head
(i) 2 heads Find the probability that the drawn
of well shuffled playing cards.
at random from a pack
3. A card is drawn
card is (iii) neither a club nor a king
(ii) a multiple of 3
neither a red card nor a black king
(1)
which x are white.
18 balls out of ball?
4. A bag contains that it will be a white
what is the probability
ball is drawn
without looking, (),findx.
i) If one
a white ball is thrice that in
the bag, the probability of drawing
If 6 white balls are put in A card is now drawn
(i) more
numbers are multiples of 3 are removed.
all cards whose
5. From a pack of playing cards,
that the card drawn is
What is the probability 2011
at random.
numbered red card.
face card
(11) an even
cuDe
(i) a dimensions. If a small
paper with 30 cm x 20 cm
drawn on a rectangular that it will tall
diameter 20 cm is
6. A circle with falls on the paper what
is the probability
that it
the paper and assuming [Take T 3.14]
=
is dropped on
circle?
circle? (i) outside the
(i) inside the have 5 Tuesdays in a
that the month of February may
7. Find the probability
(it) non-leap year
i) leap year
that there are 53 Mondays in a
8. Find the probability
(i) non-leap year 1s
(i) leap year that the nuoe
are made with 3, 7, 9, a digit can be repeated, what is the probability
9. If 2 digit numbers
()greaterthan 70 (17) a prime number i) a multiple of 3
faces on the coins
tossed together, what is the probability of getting different
10. When 2 coins are
ICSE Mathematics 10
(356
are rolled, what is the probability that
2 dice
the
s u m
off tthe
numbers is
atleast 10 )the product of numbers is 8
9 even
numbers
( both a r e
the p r o b a b i l i
that a
leap year has 53 sundays?
h a tis
0A game of chance has a spinning arrow pivoted at the centre of a dial as shown in
the figure. When turned the arrow points to any of the twelve numbers. What is the
probability that the arrow points at
) an odd number
) a prime number
) a number more than 5
() a perfect square
21. A dice is thrown 500 times and frequency of the outcomes are noted as given below.
Outcomee 1 23 56
Frequency 75 85100 86 90 64
Find the probability of getting
)a number less than 3 (11) a prime number
A bag contains 4 green, 12 red andx yellow balls. Express in terms of x the probability of getting a yellow
No. of heads 0 1
28 52 20
Frequency
What is the probability of
i1) at most 1 head
i) one head
black. If the probability of drawing a white ball is twice
32. A bag has 24 balls. Some are white and remaining balls.
white
that of drawing a black ball, find the number of
33. If two dice are rolled, What is the probability that
() the sum of the numbers on the dice is a prime number?
of the numbers the dice is 8?
(i) the sum on
is find x.
(i) Given that the probability 13
1 coins and twenty 50 paise coins in his coin box? If he
36. A boy had thirty 2 rupee coins, twenty-five rupee that it is
what is the probability
picks upa coin from the box,
2 coin (ii) either 2 or a R1 coin (17) not a l coin
1) a
MISCELLANEOUS EXERCISE
7, what is the probability that number is
digit numbers are made with 3, 5 or a
1. If two
number (ii) a multiple of 5
(i) a prime
(ii) less than 40.
2. In an aquarium, there are 36 red and some black fish. When a fish is removed, the probability or Bet
11
black fish is Find the number of black fish.
20
t
3. ldentical cards are marked 1 to 100. When a card is drawn at random, what is the probability that
i) a multiple of 11 (i) a perfect square
(iti) a number in which one digit is twice the other (io) a multiple of 2 and 3
(o) a prime number containing the digit 9
er,
4. On a square paper of side 20 cm, a circle of diameter 10 cm is drawn. Assuming that it falls on u
what is the probability that a tiny cube dropped on the paper falls Take T-
) within the circle (ii) outside the circle?
(0 no heads
(i) at least 2 tails
is
cards is well
is well shuffled and a card is randomly picked up, what is the probability that
deck
k of playing
Whena
6
it is
card or a queen (i) a multiple of 3
red
a
( (io) a nine and an ace
face c a r d
red
a
(it) letter is chosen randomly. What is the probability that it is a
7. From the letters
of the word MATHEMATICS, a
points at
(i) an odd number
) a perfect cube
(ii) a factor of 8 (iv) the smallest prime number
were shuffled and put in a box. If a card is picked up froom
11. Odd numbered cards 1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11, 27, 29
this box, what is the probability that the number on the card is a
the lot?
Probability 359
6. Sixteen cards are labelled as a, b, c, d,., m, n, o, p. They are put in a box and shuffled. A boy is as
a card from the box. What is the probability that the card drawn is:
sked to draw
() A vowel? (i) A consonant? (it) None of the letters of the word 'median',
andom 2017
7. Cards bearing numbers 2,4, 6,8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18 and 20 are kept in a bag8 A card is drawn at r
the bag. Find the probability of getting a card which 1s;
from
() a prime number. (i1) a number divisible by 4.
(in) a number that is a multiple of 6. (io) an odd number.
8. There are 25 discs numbered 1 to 25. They are put in a closed box and shaken thoroughly. A disc 2018)
lisc isis cdrawn
at random from the box. Find the probability that the number on the disC 1;
) an odd number (ii) divisible by 2 and 3 both.
(ii) a number less than 16.
9. Each of the letters of the world 'AUTHORIZES' is written on identical circular discs and put in a bag, Th
2019
are well shuffled. If a disc is drawn at random from the bag, what is the probability that the letter is: ey
(i) A vowel
(i) One of the first 9 letters of the English alphabet which appears in the given word
(in) One of the last 9 letters of the English alphabet which appears in the given word?
2020
LET'S RECALL
2 =4
7. If a coin is tossed n times or n coins are tossed together =2" outcomes
8. If 2 dice rolled
are
possible.
are
simultaneously or one dice two times, the total no. of outcomes =6 =
36
9. (1) At least 3> 3 or more
(i) At most 2 0 or 1 or 2
10. () multiples of 2and 3 = multiples of 6 >6, 12 18, etc.
(ti) multiples of 2 or 3 multiples of 2 as well as
11. Favourable outcomes should
multiples of 32, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12, etc.
be listed in each case.
DO YOU KNOW?
BLAISE PASCAL (1623-1662)
Blaise Pascal, a French
mathematician, was a child prodigy. He
first digital calculator and invented the
for binomial coefficients in hydraulic press. He gave a tabular
number is the sum of the
the
expansion of (a + b". n Pascal's presentation
numbers above it. triangle, each
Probability had its origin in the games of
interested in gambling chance. In 1654,
from that collaboration problems, Blaise Pascal prompted by a friend
was born corresponded with Fermat and
helped in creating two major new the Theory of Probability. Blaise
treatise on the areas of
research. Pascal
subject of Projective He wrote
strongly influencing Modern Geometry and later on a
significant
Economics and Social Probability Theory
Science.
(360 ICSE Mathematics 10 Blaise Pascal