Climate change

Contemporary climate change includes both global

warming and its impacts on Earth's weather patterns.
There have been previous periods of climate change,
but the current changes are distinctly more rapid and
not due to natural causes.[2] Instead, they are caused
by the emission of greenhouse gases, mostly carbon
dioxide (CO2 ) and methane. Burning fossil fuels for
energy production creates most of these emissions.
Certain agricultural practices, industrial processes, and
forest loss are additional sources.[3] Greenhouse gases
are transparent to sunlight, allowing it through to heat
the Earth's surface. When the Earth emits that heat as
infrared radiation the gases absorb it, trapping the heat
near the Earth's surface and causing global warming.
Average surface air temperatures from 2011 to
Due to climate change, deserts are expanding, while
2021 compared to the 1956–1976 average
heat waves and wildfires are becoming more
common.[4] Increased warming in the Arctic has
contributed to melting permafrost, glacial retreat and
sea ice loss.[5] Higher temperatures are also causing
more intense storms, droughts, and other weather
extremes.[6] Rapid environmental change in
mountains, coral reefs, and the Arctic is forcing many
species to relocate or become extinct.[7] Climate
change threatens people with food and water scarcity,
increased flooding, extreme heat, more disease, and
economic loss. Human migration and conflict can be a
result.[8] The World Health Organization (WHO) calls
climate change the greatest threat to global health in
the 21st century.[9] Even if efforts to minimise future
warming are successful, some effects will continue for Change in average surface air temperature since
centuries. These include sea level rise, and warmer, the industrial revolution, plus drivers for that
more acidic oceans.[10] change. Human activity has caused increased
temperatures, with natural forces adding some
Many of these impacts are already felt at the current variability.[1]
1.2 °C (2.2 °F) level of warming. Additional warming
will increase these impacts and may trigger tipping
points, such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet.[11] Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations
collectively agreed to keep warming "well under 2  °C". However, with pledges made under the
Agreement, global warming would still reach about 2.7 °C (4.9 °F) by the end of the century.[12] Limiting
warming to 1.5 °C will require halving emissions by 2030 and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.[13]

Making deep cuts in emissions will require switching away from burning fossil fuels and towards using
 Some effects of climate change, clockwise from top left: Wildfire intensified by heat and drought, worsening
droughts compromising water supplies, and bleaching of coral caused by ocean acidification and heating.

electricity generated from low-carbon sources. This includes phasing out coal-fired power plants, vastly
increasing use of wind, solar, and other types of renewable energy, and taking measures to reduce energy
use. Electricity will need to replace fossil fuels for powering transportation, heating buildings, and operating
industrial facilities.[15][16] Carbon can also be removed from the atmosphere, for instance by increasing
forest cover and by farming with methods that capture carbon in soil.[17] While communities may adapt to
climate change through efforts like better coastline protection, they cannot avert the risk of severe,
widespread, and permanent impacts.[18]

Contents
Terminology
Observed temperature rise
Regional aspects to temperature rises
Drivers of recent temperature rise
Greenhouse gases
Aerosols and clouds
Land surface changes
Solar and volcanic activity
Climate change feedback
Future warming and the carbon budget
Impacts
Environmental effects
Tipping points and long-term impacts
Nature and wildlife
Humans
Reducing and recapturing emissions
Clean energy
Energy conservation
Agriculture and industry
 Carbon sequestration
Adapting to a changing climate
Policies and politics
Policy options
International climate agreements
National responses
Society
Denial and misinformation
Public awareness and opinion
History
Early discoveries
Developing scientific consensus
See also
References
Sources
External links

Terminology
Before the 1980s, it was unclear whether warming by increased greenhouse gases would dominate aerosol-
induced cooling. Scientists then often used the term inadvertent climate modification to refer to the human
impact on the climate. In the 1980s, the terms global warming and climate change were popularised. The
former refers only to increased surface warming, the latter describes the full effect of greenhouse gases on
the climate.[19] Global warming became the most popular term after NASA climate scientist James Hansen
used it in his 1988 testimony in the U.S. Senate.[20] In the 2000s, the term climate change increased in
popularity.[21] Global warming usually refers to human-induced warming of the Earth system, whereas
climate change can refer to natural or anthropogenic change.[22] The two terms are often used
interchangeably.[23]

Various scientists, politicians and media figures have adopted the terms climate crisis or climate emergency
to talk about climate change, and global heating instead of global warming.[24] The policy editor-in-chief
of The Guardian said they included this language in their editorial guidelines "to ensure that we are being
scientifically precise, while also communicating clearly with readers on this very important issue".[25] In
2019, Oxford Languages chose climate emergency as its word of the year, defining it as "a situation in
which urgent action is required to reduce or halt climate change and avoid potentially irreversible
environmental damage resulting from it".[26][27]

Observed temperature rise

Multiple independent instrumental datasets show that the climate system is warming.[30] The 2011–2020
decade warmed to an average 1.09  °C [0.95–1.20  °C] compared to the pre-industrial baseline (1850–
1900).[31] Surface temperatures are rising by about 0.2  °C per decade,[32] with 2020 reaching a
temperature of 1.2 °C above the pre-industrial era.[33] Since 1950, the number of cold days and nights has
decreased, and the number of warm days and nights has increased.[34]
There was little net warming between the 18th century
and the mid-19th century. Climate information for that
period comes from climate proxies, such as trees and
ice cores.[35] Thermometer records began to provide
global coverage around 1850.[36] Historical patterns of
warming and cooling, like the Medieval Climate
Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, did not occur at the
same time across different regions. Temperatures may
have reached as high as those of the late-20th century
in a limited set of regions.[37] There have been
prehistorical episodes of global warming, such as the
Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum.[38] However,
the modern observed rise in temperature and CO2 Global surface temperature reconstruction over the
concentrations has been so rapid that even abrupt last 2000 years using proxy data from tree rings,
geophysical events in Earth's history do not approach corals, and ice cores in blue.[28] Directly observed
current rates.[39] data is in red.[29]

Evidence of warming from air temperature

measurements are reinforced with a wide range of other observations.[40][41] There has been an increase in
the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation, melting of snow and land ice, and increased atmospheric
humidity.[42] Flora and fauna are also behaving in a manner consistent with warming; for instance, plants
are flowering earlier in spring.[43] Another key indicator is the cooling of the upper atmosphere, which
demonstrates that greenhouse gases are trapping heat near the Earth's surface and preventing it from
radiating into space.[44]

Regional aspects to temperature rises

Regions of the world warm at differing rates. The pattern is independent of where greenhouse gases are
emitted, because the gases persist long enough to diffuse across the planet. Since the pre-industrial period,
the average surface temperature over land regions has increased almost twice as fast as the global-average
surface temperature.[45] This is because of the larger heat capacity of oceans, and because oceans lose more
heat by evaporation.[46] The thermal energy in the global climate system has grown with only brief pauses
since at least 1970, and over 90% of this extra energy has been stored in the ocean.[47][48] The rest has
heated the atmosphere, melted ice, and warmed the continents.[49]

The Northern Hemisphere and the North Pole have warmed much faster than the South Pole and Southern
Hemisphere. The Northern Hemisphere not only has much more land, but also more seasonal snow cover
and sea ice. As these surfaces flip from reflecting a lot of light to being dark after the ice has melted, they
start absorbing more heat.[50] Local black carbon deposits on snow and ice also contribute to Arctic
warming.[51] Arctic temperatures are increasing at over twice the rate of the rest of the world.[52] Melting
of glaciers and ice sheets in the Arctic disrupts ocean circulation, including a weakened Gulf Stream,
further changing the climate.[53]

Drivers of recent temperature rise

The climate system experiences various cycles on its own which can last for years (such as the El Niño–
Southern Oscillation (ENSO)), decades or even centuries.[54] Other changes are caused by an imbalance of
energy that is "external" to the climate system, but not always external to the Earth.[55] Examples of
external forcings include changes in the concentrations
of greenhouse gases, solar luminosity, volcanic
eruptions, and variations in the Earth's orbit around the
Sun.[56]

To determine the human contribution to climate

change, known internal climate variability and natural
external forcings need to be ruled out. A key approach
is to determine unique "fingerprints" for all potential
causes, then compare these fingerprints with observed
patterns of climate change.[57] For example, solar
forcing can be ruled out as a major cause. Its
fingerprint would be warming in the entire
atmosphere. Yet, only the lower atmosphere has
warmed, consistent with greenhouse gas forcing.[58]
Attribution of recent climate change shows that the Drivers of climate change from 1850–1900 to
main driver is elevated greenhouse gases, with 2010–2019. There was no significant contribution
aerosols having a dampening effect.[59] from internal variability or solar and volcanic
drivers.

Greenhouse gases

Greenhouse gases are transparent to sunlight, and thus

allow it to pass through the atmosphere to heat the
Earth's surface. The Earth radiates it as heat, and
greenhouse gases absorb a portion of it. This
absorption slows the rate at which heat escapes into
space, trapping heat near the Earth's surface and
warming it over time.[60] Before the Industrial
Revolution, naturally-occurring amounts of
greenhouse gases caused the air near the surface to be
about 33 °C warmer than it would have been in their
absence.[61][62] While water vapour (~50%) and CO2 concentrations over the last 800,000 years as
clouds (~25%) are the biggest contributors to the measured from ice cores (blue/green) and directly
greenhouse effect, they increase as a function of (black)
temperature and are therefore feedbacks. On the other
hand, concentrations of gases such as CO2 (~20%),
tropospheric ozone,[63] CFCs and nitrous oxide are not temperature-dependent, and are therefore external
forcings.[64]

Human activity since the Industrial Revolution, mainly extracting and burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, and
natural gas),[65] has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, resulting in a radiative
imbalance. In 2019, the concentrations of CO2 and methane had increased by about 48% and 160%,
respectively, since 1750.[66] These CO2 levels are higher than they have been at any time during the last 2
million years. Concentrations of methane are far higher than they were over the last 800,000 years.[67]

Global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 were equivalent to 59 billion tonnes of CO2 . Of
these emissions, 75% was CO2 , 18% was methane, 4% was nitrous oxide, and 2% was fluorinated
gases.[68] CO2 emissions primarily come from burning fossil fuels to provide energy for transport,
manufacturing, heating, and electricity.[3] Additional CO2 emissions come from deforestation and industrial
processes, which include the CO2 released by the
chemical reactions for making cement, steel,
aluminum, and fertiliser.[69] Methane emissions come
from livestock, manure, rice cultivation, landfills,
wastewater, and coal mining, as well as oil and gas
extraction.[70] Nitrous oxide emissions largely come
from the microbial decomposition of fertiliser.[71]

Despite the contribution of deforestation to greenhouse

gas emissions, the Earth's land surface, particularly its
forests, remain a significant carbon sink for CO2 .
The Global Carbon Project shows how additions to
Land-surface sink processes, such as carbon fixation in
CO2 since 1880 have been caused by different
the soil and photosynthesis, remove about 29% of
sources ramping up one after another.
annual global CO2 emissions.[72] The ocean also
serves as a significant carbon sink via a two-step
process. First, CO2 dissolves in the surface water. Afterwards, the ocean's overturning circulation
distributes it deep into the ocean's interior, where it accumulates over time as part of the carbon cycle. Over
the last two decades, the world's oceans have absorbed 20 to 30% of emitted CO2 .[73]

Aerosols and clouds

Air pollution, in the form of aerosols, not only puts a large burden on human health, but also affects the
climate on a large scale.[74] From 1961 to 1990, a gradual reduction in the amount of sunlight reaching the
Earth's surface was observed, a phenomenon popularly known as global dimming,[75] typically attributed
to aerosols from biofuel and fossil fuel burning.[76] Globally, aerosols have been declining since 1990,
meaning that they no longer mask greenhouse gas warming as much.[77]

Aerosols scatter and absorb solar radiation. They also have indirect effects on the Earth's radiation budget.
Sulfate aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei and lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud
droplets. These clouds reflect solar radiation more efficiently than clouds with fewer and larger droplets.[78]
They also reduce the growth of raindrops, which makes clouds more reflective to incoming sunlight.[79]
Indirect effects of aerosols are the largest uncertainty in radiative forcing.[80]

While aerosols typically limit global warming by reflecting sunlight, black carbon in soot that falls on snow
or ice can contribute to global warming. Not only does this increase the absorption of sunlight, it also
increases melting and sea-level rise.[81] Limiting new black carbon deposits in the Arctic could reduce
global warming by 0.2 °C by 2050.[82]

Land surface changes

Humans change the Earth's surface mainly to create more agricultural land. Today, agriculture takes up
34% of Earth's land area, while 26% is forests, and 30% is uninhabitable (glaciers, deserts, etc.).[84] The
amount of forested land continues to decrease, which is the main land use change that causes global
warming.[85] Deforestation releases CO2 contained in trees when they are destroyed, plus it prevents those
trees from absorbing more CO2 in the future.[86] The main causes of deforestation are: permanent land-use
change from forest to agricultural land producing products such as beef and palm oil (27%), logging to
produce forestry/forest products (26%), short term shifting cultivation (24%), and wildfires (23%).[87]
 Land use changes not only affect greenhouse gas
emissions. The type of vegetation in a region affects
the local temperature. It impacts how much of the
sunlight gets reflected back into space (albedo), and
how much heat is lost by evaporation. For instance,
the change from a dark forest to grassland makes the
surface lighter, causing it to reflect more sunlight.
Deforestation can also affect temperatures by
modifying the release of chemical compounds that
influence clouds, and by changing wind patterns.[88]
In tropic and temperate areas the net effect is to
The rate of global tree cover loss has approximately produce significant warming, while at latitudes closer
doubled since 2001, to an annual loss approaching to the poles a gain of albedo (as forest is replaced by
an area the size of Italy.[83] snow cover) leads to a cooling effect.[88] Globally,
these effects are estimated to have led to a slight
cooling, dominated by an increase in surface
albedo.[89]

Solar and volcanic activity

Physical climate models are unable to reproduce the rapid warming observed in recent decades when taking
into account only variations in solar output and volcanic activity.[90] As the Sun is the Earth's primary
energy source, changes in incoming sunlight directly affect the climate system.[80] Solar irradiance has been
measured directly by satellites,[91] and indirect measurements are available from the early 1600s
onwards.[80] There has been no upward trend in the amount of the Sun's energy reaching the Earth.[92]
Further evidence for greenhouse gases causing global warming comes from measurements that show a
warming of the lower atmosphere (the troposphere), coupled with a cooling of the upper atmosphere (the
stratosphere).[93] If solar variations were responsible for the observed warming, the troposphere and
stratosphere would both warm.[58]

Explosive volcanic eruptions represent the largest natural forcing over the industrial era. When the eruption
is sufficiently strong (with sulfur dioxide reaching the stratosphere), sunlight can be partially blocked for a
couple of years. The temperature signal lasts about twice as long. In the industrial era, volcanic activity has
had negligible impacts on global temperature trends.[94] Present-day volcanic CO2 emissions are equivalent
to less than 1% of current anthropogenic CO2 emissions.[95]

Climate change feedback

The response of the climate system to an initial forcing is modified by feedbacks: increased by self-
reinforcing feedbacks and reduced by balancing feedbacks.[97] The main reinforcing feedbacks are the
water-vapour feedback, the ice–albedo feedback, and the net effect of clouds.[98][99] The primary
balancing mechanism is radiative cooling, as Earth's surface gives off more heat to space in response to
rising temperature.[100] In addition to temperature feedbacks, there are feedbacks in the carbon cycle, such
as the fertilizing effect of CO2 on plant growth.[101] Uncertainty over feedbacks is the major reason why
different climate models project different magnitudes of warming for a given amount of emissions.[102]

As the air is warmed by greenhouse gases, it can hold more moisture. Water vapour is a potent greenhouse
gas, so this further heats the atmosphere.[98] If cloud cover increases, more sunlight will be reflected back
into space, cooling the planet. If clouds become higher and thinner, they act as an insulator, reflecting heat
from below back downwards and warming the planet.[103] The
effect of clouds is the largest source of feedback uncertainty.[104]

Another major feedback is the reduction of snow cover and sea ice
in the Arctic, which reduces the reflectivity of the Earth's
surface.[105]
More of the Sun's energy is now absorbed in these
regions, contributing to amplification of Arctic temperature
changes.[106] Arctic amplification is also melting permafrost, which
releases methane and CO2 into the atmosphere.[107] Climate Sea ice reflects 50% to 70% of
change can also cause methane releases from wetlands, marine incoming solar radiation while the
systems, and freshwater systems.[108] Overall, climate feedbacks dark ocean surface only reflects 6%,
are expected to become increasingly positive.[109] so melting sea ice is a self-
reinforcing feedback.[96]
Around half of human-caused CO2 emissions have been absorbed
by land plants and by the oceans.[110] On land, elevated CO2 and
an extended growing season have stimulated plant growth. Climate change increases droughts and heat
waves that inhibit plant growth, which makes it uncertain whether this carbon sink will continue to grow in
the future.[111] Soils contain large quantities of carbon and may release some when they heat up.[112] As
more CO2 and heat are absorbed by the ocean, it acidifies, its circulation changes and phytoplankton takes
up less carbon, decreasing the rate at which the ocean absorbs atmospheric carbon.[113] Overall, at higher
CO2 concentrations the Earth will absorb a reduced fraction of our emissions.[114]

Future warming and the carbon budget

A climate model is a representation of the physical,
chemical, and biological processes that affect the
climate system.[115] Models are used to calculate the
degree of warming future emissions will cause when
accounting for the strength of climate
feedbacks. [116][117] Models also include natural
processes like changes in the Earth's orbit, historical
changes in the Sun's activity, and volcanic
forcing.[118] In addition to estimating future
temperatures, they reproduce and predict the
circulation of the oceans, the annual cycle of the
seasons, and the flows of carbon between the land
surface and the atmosphere.[119]

The physical realism of models is tested by examining

their ability to simulate contemporary or past
Projected global surface temperature changes
climates.[120] Past models have underestimated the rate
relative to 1850–1900, based on CMIP6 multi-
of Arctic shrinkage[121] and underestimated the rate of
model mean changes
precipitation increase.[122] Sea level rise since 1990
was underestimated in older models, but more recent
models agree well with observations.[123] The 2017 United States-published National Climate Assessment
notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes".[124]

A subset of climate models add societal factors to a simple physical climate model. These models simulate
how population, economic growth, and energy use affect – and interact with – the physical climate. With
this information, these models can produce scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions. This is then used
as input for physical climate models and carbon cycle models to predict how atmospheric concentrations of
greenhouse gases might change in the future.[125][126] Depending on the socioeconomic scenario and the
mitigation scenario, models produce atmospheric CO2 concentrations that range widely between 380 and
1400 ppm.[127]

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report projects that global warming is very likely to reach 1.0 °C to 1.8 °C by
the late 21st century under the very low GHG emissions scenario. In an intermediate scenario global
warming would reach 2.1  °C to 3.5  °C, and 3.3  °C to 5.7  °C under the very high GHG emissions
scenario.[128] These projections are based on climate models in combination with observations.[129]

The remaining carbon budget is determined by modelling the carbon cycle and the climate sensitivity to
greenhouse gases.[130] According to the IPCC, global warming can be kept below 1.5 °C with a two-thirds
chance if emissions after 2018 do not exceed 420 or 570 gigatonnes of CO2 . This corresponds to 10 to 13
years of current emissions. There are high uncertainties about the budget. For instance, it may be 100
gigatonnes of CO2 smaller due to methane release from permafrost and wetlands.[131] However, it is clear
that fossil fuel resources are too abundant for shortages to be relied on to limit carbon emissions in the 21st
century.[132]

Impacts

Environmental effects

The environmental effects of climate change are broad

and far-reaching, affecting oceans, ice, and weather.
Changes may occur gradually or rapidly. Evidence for
these effects comes from studying climate change in
the past, from modelling, and from modern
observations.[133] Since the 1950s, droughts and heat
waves have appeared simultaneously with increasing
frequency.[134] Extremely wet or dry events within the
monsoon period have increased in India and East
Asia.[135] The rainfall rate and intensity of hurricanes The sixth IPCC Assessment Report projects
and typhoons is likely increasing.[136] Frequency of changes in average soil moisture that can disrupt
tropical cyclones has not increased as a result of agriculture and ecosystems. A reduction in soil
climate change.[137] However, a study review article moisture by one standard deviation means that
published in 2021 in Nature Geoscience concluded average soil moisture will approximately match the
that the geographic range of tropical cyclones will ninth driest year between 1850 and 1900 at that
probably expand poleward in response to climate location.
warming of the Hadley circulation.[138]

Global sea level is rising as a consequence of glacial melt, melt of the ice sheets in Greenland and
Antarctica, and thermal expansion. Between 1993 and 2020, the rise increased over time, averaging
3.3 ± 0.3 mm per year.[140] Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects that in a very high emissions scenario
the sea level could rise by 61–110  cm.[141] Increased ocean warmth is undermining and threatening to
unplug Antarctic glacier outlets, risking a large melt of the ice sheet[142] and the possibility of a 2-meter sea
level rise by 2100 under high emissions.[143]
Climate change has led to decades of shrinking and
thinning of the Arctic sea ice.[144] While ice-free
summers are expected to be rare at 1.5 °C degrees of
warming, they are set to occur once every three to ten
years at a warming level of 2  °C.[145] Higher
atmospheric CO2 concentrations have led to changes
in ocean chemistry. An increase in dissolved CO2 is
causing oceans to acidify.[146] In addition, oxygen
levels are decreasing as oxygen is less soluble in
warmer water.[147] Dead zones in the ocean, regions
with very little oxygen, are expanding too.[148]

Historical sea level reconstruction and projections

Tipping points and long-term impacts up to 2100 published in 2017 by the U.S. Global
Change Research Program[139]
Greater degrees of global warming increase the risk of
passing through ‘tipping points’—thresholds beyond
which certain impacts can no longer be avoided even if temperatures are reduced.[149] An example is the
collapse of West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, where a temperature rise of 1.5 to 2 °C may commit
the ice sheets to melt, although the time scale of melt is uncertain and depends on future warming.[150][151]
Some large-scale changes could occur over a short time period, such as a shutdown of certain ocean
currents like the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).[152] Tipping points can also
include irreversible damage to ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest and coral reefs.[153]

The long-term effects of climate change include further ice melt, ocean warming, sea level rise, and ocean
acidification.[154] On the timescale of centuries to millennia, the magnitude of climate change will be
determined primarily by anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This is due to CO2 's long atmospheric lifetime.[155]
Oceanic CO2 uptake is slow enough that ocean acidification will continue for hundreds to thousands of
years.[156] These emissions are estimated to have prolonged the current interglacial period by at least
100,000 years.[157] Sea level rise will continue over many centuries, with an estimated rise of 2.3 metres
per degree Celsius (4.2 ft/°F) after 2000 years.[158]

Nature and wildlife

Recent warming has driven many terrestrial and freshwater species poleward and towards higher
altitudes.[159] Higher atmospheric CO2 levels and an extended growing season have resulted in global
greening. However, heatwaves and drought have reduced ecosystem productivity in some regions. The
future balance of these opposing effects is unclear.[160] Climate change has contributed to the expansion of
drier climate zones, such as the expansion of deserts in the subtropics.[161] The size and speed of global
warming is making abrupt changes in ecosystems more likely.[162] Overall, it is expected that climate
change will result in the extinction of many species.[163]

The oceans have heated more slowly than the land, but plants and animals in the ocean have migrated
towards the colder poles faster than species on land.[164] Just as on land, heat waves in the ocean occur
more frequently due to climate change, harming a wide range of organisms such as corals, kelp, and
seabirds.[165] Ocean acidification makes it harder for organisms such as mussels, barnacles and corals to
produce shells and skeletons; and heatwaves have bleached coral reefs.[166] Harmful algal blooms
enhanced by climate change and eutrophication lower oxygen levels, disrupt food webs and cause great
loss of marine life.[167] Coastal ecosystems are under particular stress. Almost half of global wetlands have
disappeared due to climate change and other human impacts.[168]

Climate change impacts on the environment

Ecological collapse. Extreme weather. Arctic warming.

Bleaching has Drought and high Permafrost thaws
damaged the Great temperatures undermine infrastructure
Barrier Reef and worsened the 2020 and release methane, a
threatens reefs bushfires in greenhouse gas.[107]
worldwide.[169] Australia.[170]

Habitat destruction. Pest propagation.

Many arctic animals rely Mild winters allow
on sea ice, which has more pine beetles to
been disappearing in a survive to kill large
warming Arctic.[171] swaths of forest.[172]

Humans

The effects of climate change on humans have been

observed worldwide. They are mostly due to warming
and shifts in precipitation. Impacts can now be
observed on all continents and ocean regions,[174]
with low-latitude, less developed areas facing the
greatest risk.[175] Continued warming has potentially
“severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts” for people
and ecosystems.[176] The risks are unevenly
distributed, but are generally greater for disadvantaged The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (2021)
people in developing and developed countries.[177] projects that extreme weather will be progressively
more common as the Earth warms.[173]
Food and health
The WHO has classified climate change as the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century.[178]
Extreme weather leads to injury and loss of life,[179] and crop failures to undernutrition.[180] Various
infectious diseases are more easily transmitted in a warmer climate, such as dengue fever and malaria.[181]
Young children are the most vulnerable to food shortages. Both children and older people are vulnerable to
extreme heat.[182] The World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated that between 2030 and 2050,
climate change would cause around 250,000 additional deaths per year. They assessed deaths from heat
exposure in elderly people, increases in diarrhea, malaria, dengue, coastal flooding, and childhood
undernutrition.[183] Over 500,000 more adult deaths are projected yearly by 2050 due to reductions in food
availability and quality.[184]

Climate change is affecting food security. It has caused reduction in global yields of maize, wheat, and
soybeans between 1981 and 2010.[185] Future warming could further reduce global yields of major
crops.[186] Crop production will probably be negatively affected in low-latitude countries, while effects at
northern latitudes may be positive or negative.[187] Up to an additional 183 million people worldwide,
particularly those with lower incomes, are at risk of hunger as a consequence of these impacts.[188] Climate
change also impacts fish populations. Globally, less will be available to be fished.[189] Regions dependent
on glacier water, regions that are already dry, and small islands have a higher risk of water stress due to
climate change.[190]

Livelihoods

Economic damages due to climate change may be severe and there is a chance of disastrous
consequences.[191] Climate change has likely already increased global economic inequality, and this trend
is projected to continue.[192] Most of the severe impacts are expected in sub-Saharan Africa, where most of
the local inhabitants are dependent upon natural and agricultural resources[193], and South-East Asia.[194]
The World Bank estimates that climate change could drive over 120 million people into poverty by
2030.[195]

Current inequalities based on wealth and social status have worsened due to climate change.[196] Major
difficulties in mitigating, adapting, and recovering to climate shocks are faced by marginalized people who
have less control over resources.[197][193] Indigenous people, who are subsistent on their land and
ecosystems, will face endangerment to their wellness and lifestyles due to climate change.[198] An expert
elicitation concluded that the role of climate change in armed conflict has been small compared to factors
such as socio-economic inequality and state capabilities.[199]

Low-lying islands and coastal communities are threatened by sea level rise, which makes flooding more
common. Sometimes, land is permanently lost to the sea.[200] This could lead to statelessness for people in
island nations, such as the Maldives and Tuvalu.[201] In some regions, the rise in temperature and humidity
may be too severe for humans to adapt to.[202] With worst-case climate change, models project that almost
one-third of humanity might live in extremely hot and uninhabitable climates, similar to the current climate
found in the Sahara.[203] These factors can drive environmental migration, both within and between
countries.[8] More people are expected to be displaced because of sea level rise, extreme weather and
conflict from increased competition over natural resources. Climate change may also increase vulnerability,
leading to "trapped populations" who are not able to move due to a lack of resources.[204]

Climate change impacts on people



Environmental Agricultural changes. Tidal flooding. Sea-

migration. Sparser Droughts, rising level rise increases
rainfall leads to temperatures, and flooding in low-lying
desertification that extreme weather coastal regions.
harms agriculture and negatively impact Shown: Venice, Italy
can displace agriculture. Shown: (2004).[207]
populations. Shown: Texas, US (2013).[206]
Telly, Mali (2008).[205]

Storm intensification. Heat wave

Bangladesh after intensification.
Cyclone Sidr (2007) is Events like the
an example of June 2019
catastrophic flooding European heat
from increased wave are
rainfall.[208] becoming more
common.[209]

Reducing and recapturing emissions

Climate change can be mitigated by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and by enhancing sinks that absorb
greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.[210] In order to limit global warming to less than 1.5 °C with a high
likelihood of success, global greenhouse gas emissions needs to be net-zero by 2050, or by 2070 with a
2 °C target.[131] This requires far-reaching, systemic changes on an unprecedented scale in energy, land,
cities, transport, buildings, and industry.[211] The United Nations Environment Programme estimates that
countries need to triple their pledges under the Paris Agreement within the next decade to limit global
warming to 2 °C. An even greater level of reduction is required to meet the 1.5 °C goal.[212] With pledges
made under the Agreement as of October 2021, global warming would still have a 66% chance of reaching
about 2.7 °C (range: 2.2–3.2 °C) by the end of the century.[12]

Although there is no single pathway to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2  °C,[213] most scenarios and
strategies see a major increase in the use of renewable energy in combination with increased energy
efficiency measures to generate the needed greenhouse gas reductions.[214] To reduce pressures on
ecosystems and enhance their carbon sequestration capabilities, changes would also be necessary in
 agriculture and forestry,[215] such as preventing
deforestation and restoring natural ecosystems by
reforestation.[216]

Other approaches to mitigating climate change have a

higher level of risk. Scenarios that limit global
warming to 1.5 °C typically project the large-scale use
of carbon dioxide removal methods over the 21st
century.[217] There are concerns, though, about over-
reliance on these technologies, and environmental
impacts.[218] Solar radiation management (SRM) is
also a possible supplement to deep reductions in
emissions. However, SRM would raise significant
ethical and legal issues, and the risks are poorly
Global greenhouse gas emission scenarios, based understood.[219]
on policies and pledges as of 11/21

Clean energy

Renewable energy is key to limiting climate

change.[221] Fossil fuels accounted for 80% of the
world's energy in 2018. The remaining share was split
between nuclear power and renewables (including
hydropower, bioenergy, wind and solar power and
geothermal energy).[222] That mix is projected to
change significantly over the next 30 years.[214] Solar
panels and onshore wind are now among the cheapest
forms of adding new power generation capacity in
many locations.[223] Renewables represented 75% of
all new electricity generation installed in 2019, nearly
all solar and wind.[224] Other forms of clean energy,
such as nuclear and hydropower, currently have a Coal, oil, and natural gas remain the primary global
larger share of the energy supply. However, their energy sources even as renewables have begun
future growth forecasts appear limited in
rapidly increasing.[220]
comparison.[225]

To achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, renewable

energy would become the dominant form of electricity
generation, rising to 85% or more by 2050 in some
scenarios. Investment in coal would be eliminated and
coal use nearly phased out by 2050.[226][227]

Electricity would also need to become the main energy

source for heating and transport.[228]
In transport,
emissions can be reduced fast by a switch to electric
vehicles.[229] Public transport and active transport
(cycling and walking) also produce less CO2 .[230] For
shipping and flying, low-carbon fuels can be used to
reduce emissions.[229] Heating would be increasingly Wind and solar power, Germany
decarbonised with technologies like heat pumps.[231]
There are obstacles to the continued rapid growth of clean energy, including renewables. For wind and
solar, there are environmental and land use concerns for new projects.[232] Wind and solar also produce
energy intermittently and with seasonal variability. Traditionally, hydro dams with reservoirs and
conventional power plants have been used when variable energy production is low. Going forward, battery
storage can be expanded, energy demand and supply can be matched, and long-distance transmission can
smooth variability of renewable outputs.[221] Bioenergy is often not carbon-neutral and may have negative
consequences for food security.[233] The growth of nuclear power is constrained by controversy around
nuclear waste, nuclear weapon proliferation, and accidents.[234][235] Hydropower growth is limited by the
fact that the best sites have been developed, and new projects are confronting increased social and
environmental concerns.[236]

Low-carbon energy improves human health by minimising climate change. It also has the near-term benefit
of reducing air pollution deaths,[237] which were estimated at 7 million annually in 2016.[238] Meeting the
Paris Agreement goals that limit warming to a 2 °C increase could save about a million of those lives per
year by 2050, whereas limiting global warming to 1.5 °C could save millions and simultaneously increase
energy security and reduce poverty.[239]

Energy conservation

Reducing energy demand is another major aspect of reducing emissions.[240] If less energy is needed, there
is more flexibility for clean energy development. It also makes it easier to manage the electricity grid, and
minimises carbon-intensive infrastructure development.[241] Major increases in energy efficiency
investment will be required to achieve climate goals, comparable to the level of investment in renewable
energy.[242] Several COVID-19 related changes in energy use patterns, energy efficiency investments, and
funding have made forecasts for this decade more difficult and uncertain.[243]

Strategies to reduce energy demand vary by sector. In transport, passengers and freight can switch to more
efficient travel modes, such as buses and trains, or use electric vehicles.[244] Industrial strategies to reduce
energy demand include improving heating systems and motors, designing less energy-intensive products,
and increasing product lifetimes.[245] In the building sector the focus is on better design of new buildings,
and higher levels of energy efficiency in retrofitting.[246] The use of technologies like heat pumps can also
increase building energy efficiency.[247]

Agriculture and industry

Agriculture and forestry face a triple challenge of limiting greenhouse gas emissions, preventing the further
conversion of forests to agricultural land, and meeting increases in world food demand.[248] A set of
actions could reduce agriculture and forestry-based emissions by two thirds from 2010 levels. These
include reducing growth in demand for food and other agricultural products, increasing land productivity,
protecting and restoring forests, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production.[249]

On the demand side, a key component of reducing emissions is shifting people towards plant-based
diets.[250] Eliminating the production of livestock for meat and dairy would eliminate about 3/4ths of all
emissions from agriculture and other land use.[251] Livestock also occupy 37% of ice-free land area on
Earth and consume feed from the 12% of land area used for crops, driving deforestation and land
degradation.[252]
Steel and cement production are responsible for about
13% of industrial CO2 emissions. In these industries,
carbon-intensive materials such as coke and lime play
an integral role in the production, so that reducing
CO2 emissions requires research into alternative
chemistries.[253]

Carbon sequestration

Natural carbon sinks can be enhanced to sequester

significantly larger amounts of CO2 beyond naturally
occurring levels.[254] Reforestation and tree planting
on non-forest lands are among the most mature Taking into account direct and indirect emissions,
sequestration techniques, although the latter raises food industry is the sector with the highest share of
global emissions.
security concerns.[255] Farmers can promote
sequestration of carbon in soils through practices such
as use of winter cover crops, reducing the intensity and
frequency of tillage, and using compost and manure as
soil amendments.[256] Restoration/recreation of coastal
wetlands and seagrass meadows increases the uptake
of carbon into organic matter (blue carbon).[257] When
carbon is sequestered in soils and in organic matter
such as trees, there is a risk of the carbon being re-
released into the atmosphere later through changes in
land use, fire, or other changes in ecosystems.[258]

Where energy production or CO2 -intensive heavy

industries continue to produce waste CO2 , the gas can
be captured and stored instead of released to the Most CO2 emissions have been absorbed by
atmosphere. Although its current use is limited in scale carbon sinks, including plant growth, soil uptake,
and expensive,[259] carbon capture and storage (CCS) and ocean uptake (2020 Global Carbon Budget).
may be able to play a significant role in limiting CO2
emissions by mid-century.[260] This technique, in
combination with bio-energy (BECCS) can result in net negative emissions: CO2 is drawn from the
atmosphere.[261] It remains highly uncertain whether carbon dioxide removal techniques, such as BECCS,
will be able to play a large role in limiting warming to 1.5 °C. Policy decisions that rely on carbon dioxide
removal increase the risk of global warming rising beyond international goals.[262]

Adapting to a changing climate

Adaptation is "the process of adjustment to current or expected changes in climate and its effects".[263]
Without additional mitigation, adaptation cannot avert the risk of "severe, widespread and irreversible"
impacts.[264] More severe climate change requires more transformative adaptation, which can be
prohibitively expensive.[263] The capacity and potential for humans to adapt is unevenly distributed across
different regions and populations, and developing countries generally have less.[265] The first two decades
of the 21st century saw an increase in adaptive capacity in most low- and middle-income countries with
improved access to basic sanitation and electricity, but progress is slow. Many countries have implemented
adaptation policies. However, there is a considerable gap between necessary and available finance.[266]
Adaptation to sea level rise consists of avoiding at-risk areas, learning to live with increased flooding and
protection. If that fails, managed retreat may be needed.[267] There are economic barriers for tackling
dangerous heat impact. Avoiding strenuous work or having air conditioning is not possible for
everybody.[268] In agriculture, adaptation options include a switch to more sustainable diets, diversification,
erosion control and genetic improvements for increased tolerance to a changing climate.[269] Insurance
allows for risk-sharing, but is often difficult to get for people on lower incomes.[270] Education, migration
and early warning systems can reduce climate vulnerability.[271]

Ecosystems adapt to climate change, a process that can be supported by human intervention. By increasing
connectivity between ecosystems, species can migrate to more favourable climate conditions. Species can
also be introduced to areas acquiring a favorable climate. Protection and restoration of natural and semi-
natural areas helps build resilience, making it easier for ecosystems to adapt. Many of the actions that
promote adaptation in ecosystems, also help humans adapt via ecosystem-based adaptation. For instance,
restoration of natural fire regimes makes catastrophic fires less likely, and reduces human exposure. Giving
rivers more space allows for more water storage in the natural system, reducing flood risk. Restored forest
acts as a carbon sink, but planting trees in unsuitable regions can exacerbate climate impacts.[272]

There are synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation. Adaptation often offer short-term
benefits, whereas mitigation has longer-term benefits.[273] Increased use of air conditioning allows people
to better cope with heat, but increases energy demand. Compact urban development may lead to reduced
emissions from transport and construction. At the same time, it may increase the urban heat island effect,
leading to higher temperatures and increased exposure.[274] Increased food productivity has large benefits
for both adaptation and mitigation.[275]

Policies and politics

Countries that are most vulnerable to climate change
have typically been responsible for a small share of
global emissions. This raises questions about justice
and fairness.[276] Climate change is strongly linked to
sustainable development. Limiting global warming
makes it easier to achieve sustainable development
goals, such as eradicating poverty and reducing
inequalities. The connection is recognised in
Sustainable Development Goal 13 which is to "take The Climate Change Performance Index ranks
urgent action to combat climate change and its countries by greenhouse gas emissions (40% of
impacts".[277] The goals on food, clean water and score), renewable energy (20%), energy use
ecosystem protection have synergies with climate (20%), and climate policy (20%).
mitigation.[278]    High    Medium    Low    Very Low

The geopolitics of climate change is complex. It has

often been framed as a free-rider problem, in which all countries benefit from mitigation done by other
countries, but individual countries would lose from switching to a low-carbon economy themselves. This
framing has been challenged. For instance, the benefits of a coal phase-out to public health and local
environments exceed the costs in almost all regions.[279] Furthermore, net importers of fossil fuels win
economically from switching to clean energy, causing net exporters to face stranded assets: fossil fuels they
cannot sell.[280]

Policy options
A wide range of policies, regulations, and laws are being used to reduce emissions. As of 2019, carbon
pricing covers about 20% of global greenhouse gas emissions.[281] Carbon can be priced with carbon taxes
and emissions trading systems.[282] Direct global fossil fuel subsidies reached $319 billion in 2017, and
$5.2 trillion when indirect costs such as air pollution are priced in.[283] Ending these can cause a 28%
reduction in global carbon emissions and a 46% reduction in air pollution deaths.[284] Subsidies could be
used to support the transition to clean energy instead.[285] More direct methods to reduce greenhouse gases
include vehicle efficiency standards, renewable fuel standards, and air pollution regulations on heavy
industry.[286] Several countries require utilities to increase the share of renewables in power
production.[287]

Policy designed through the lens of climate justice tries to address human rights issues and social inequality.
For instance, wealthy nations responsible for the largest share of emissions would have to pay poorer
countries to adapt.[288] As the use of fossil fuels is reduced, jobs in the sector are being lost. To achieve a
just transition, these people would need to be retrained for other jobs. Communities with many fossil fuel
workers would need additional investments.[289]

International climate agreements

Nearly all countries in the world are parties to the 1994

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC).[291] The goal of the UNFCCC is
to prevent dangerous human interference with the
climate system.[292] As stated in the convention, this
requires that greenhouse gas concentrations are
stabilised in the atmosphere at a level where
ecosystems can adapt naturally to climate change, food
production is not threatened, and economic
development can be sustained.[293] The UNFCCC
does not itself restrict emissions but rather provides a
framework for protocols that do. Global emissions Since 2000, rising CO2 emissions in China and the
rest of world have surpassed the output of the
have risen since the UNFCCC was signed.[294] Its
yearly conferences are the stage of global United States and Europe.[290]
negotiations.[295]

The 1997 Kyoto Protocol extended the UNFCCC and

included legally binding commitments for most
developed countries to limit their emissions.[296]
During the negotiations, the G77 (representing
developing countries) pushed for a mandate requiring
developed countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing
their emissions,[297] since developed countries
contributed most to the accumulation of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere. Per-capita emissions were
also still relatively low in developing countries and
developing countries would need to emit more to meet
their development needs.[298] Per person, the United States generates CO2 at a
far faster rate than other primary regions.[290]
The 2009 Copenhagen Accord has been widely
portrayed as disappointing because of its low goals,
and was rejected by poorer nations including the G77.[299] Associated parties aimed to limit the global
temperature rise to below 2 °C.[300] The Accord set the goal of sending $100 billion per year to developing
countries for mitigation and adaptation by 2020, and proposed the founding of the Green Climate
Fund.[301] As of 2020, the fund has failed to reach its expected target, and risks a shrinkage in its
funding.[302]

In 2015 all UN countries negotiated the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep global warming well below
2.0 °C and contains an aspirational goal of keeping warming under 1.5 °C.[303] The agreement replaced the
Kyoto Protocol. Unlike Kyoto, no binding emission targets were set in the Paris Agreement. Instead, a set
of procedures was made binding. Countries have to regularly set ever more ambitious goals and reevaluate
these goals every five years.[304] The Paris Agreement restated that developing countries must be
financially supported.[305] As of October 2021, 194 states and the European Union have signed the treaty
and 191 states and the EU have ratified or acceded to the agreement.[306]

The 1987 Montreal Protocol, an international agreement to stop emitting ozone-depleting gases, may have
been more effective at curbing greenhouse gas emissions than the Kyoto Protocol specifically designed to
do so.[307] The 2016 Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol aims to reduce the emissions of
hydrofluorocarbons, a group of powerful greenhouse gases which served as a replacement for banned
ozone-depleting gases. This made the Montreal Protocol a stronger agreement against climate change.[308]

National responses

In 2019, the United Kingdom parliament became the first national government to declare a climate
emergency.[309] Other countries and jurisdictions followed suit.[310] That same year, the European
Parliament declared a "climate and environmental emergency".[311] The European Commission presented
its European Green Deal with the goal of making the EU carbon-neutral by 2050.[312] Major countries in
Asia have made similar pledges: South Korea and Japan have committed to become carbon-neutral by
2050, and China by 2060.[313] In 2021, the European Commission released its “Fit for 55” legislation
package, which contains guidelines for the car industry; all new cars on the European market must be zero-
emission vehicles from 2035.[314] While India has strong incentives for renewables, it also plans a
significant expansion of coal in the country.[315]

As of 2021, based on information from 48 national climate plans, which represent 40% of the parties to the
Paris Agreement, estimated total greenhouse gas emissions will be 0.5% lower compared to 2010 levels,
below the 45% or 25% reduction goals to limit global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C, respectively.[316]

Society

Denial and misinformation

Public debate about climate change has been strongly affected by climate change denial and
misinformation, which originated in the United States and has since spread to other countries, particularly
Canada and Australia. The actors behind climate change denial form a well-funded and relatively
coordinated coalition of fossil fuel companies, industry groups, conservative think tanks, and contrarian
scientists.[318] Like the tobacco industry, the main strategy of these groups has been to manufacture doubt
about scientific data and results.[319] Many who deny, dismiss, or hold unwarranted doubt about the
scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change are labelled as "climate change skeptics", which
several scientists have noted is a misnomer.[320]
There are different variants of climate denial: some
deny that warming takes place at all, some
acknowledge warming but attribute it to natural
influences, and some minimise the negative impacts of
climate change.[321] Manufacturing uncertainty about
the science later developed into a manufactured
controversy: creating the belief that there is significant
uncertainty about climate change within the scientific
community in order to delay policy changes.[322]
Strategies to promote these ideas include criticism of
scientific institutions,[323] and questioning the motives
of individual scientists.[321] An echo chamber of Data has been cherry picked from short periods to
climate-denying blogs and media has further fomented falsely assert that global temperatures are not
misunderstanding of climate change.[324] rising. Blue trendlines show short periods that
mask longer-term warming trends (red trendlines).
Blue dots show the so-called global warming
Public awareness and opinion hiatus.[317]

Climate change came to international public attention

in the late 1980s.[325] Due to media coverage in the early 1990s, people often confused climate change
with other environmental issues like ozone depletion.[326] In popular culture, the climate fiction movie The
Day After Tomorrow (2004) and the Al Gore documentary An Inconvenient Truth (2006) focused on
climate change.[325]

Significant regional, gender, age and political differences exist in both public concern for, and
understanding of, climate change. More highly educated people, and in some countries, women and
younger people, were more likely to see climate change as a serious threat.[327] Partisan gaps also exist in
many countries,[328] and countries with high CO2 emissions tend to be less concerned.[329] Views on
causes of climate change vary widely between countries.[330] Concern has increased over time,[328] to the
point where in 2021 a majority of citizens in many countries express a high level of worry about climate
change, or view it as a global emergency.[331] Higher levels of worry are associated with stronger public
support for policies that address climate change.[332]

Climate movement

Climate protests demand that political leaders take action to prevent climate change. They can take the form
of public demonstrations, fossil fuel divestment, lawsuits and other activities.[333] Prominent
demonstrations include the School Strike for Climate. In this initiative, young people across the globe have
been protesting since 2018 by skipping school on Fridays, inspired by Swedish teenager Greta
Thunberg.[334] Mass civil disobedience actions by groups like Extinction Rebellion have protested by
disrupting roads and public transport.[335] Litigation is increasingly used as a tool to strengthen climate
action from public institutions and companies. Activists also initiate lawsuits which target governments and
demand that they take ambitious action or enforce existing laws on climate change.[336] Lawsuits against
fossil-fuel companies generally seek compensation for loss and damage.[337]

History

Early discoveries
In the 1820s, Joseph Fourier proposed the greenhouse
effect to explain why Earth's temperature was higher
than the sun's energy alone could explain. Earth's
atmosphere is transparent to sunlight, so sunlight
reaches the surface where it is converted to heat.
However, the atmosphere is not transparent to heat
radiating from the surface, and captures some of that
heat, which in turn warms the planet.[339]

In 1856 Eunice Newton Foote demonstrated that the

warming effect of the sun is greater for air with water
vapour than for dry air, and that the effect is even
greater with carbon dioxide (CO2 ). She concluded that
"An atmosphere of that gas would give to our earth a
This 1912 article succinctly describes the
high temperature..."[340][341]
greenhouse effect, how burning coal creates
carbon dioxide to cause climate change.[338]
Starting in 1859,[342] John Tyndall established that
nitrogen and oxygen—together totaling 99% of dry air
—are transparent to radiated heat. However, water
vapour and gases such as methane and carbon dioxide absorb radiated heat and re-radiate that heat into the
atmosphere. Tyndall proposed that changes in the concentrations of these gases may have caused climatic
changes in the past, including ice ages.[343]

Svante Arrhenius noted that water vapour in air continuously varied, but the CO2 concentration in air was
influenced by long-term geological processes. Warming from increased CO2 levels would increase the
amount of water vapour, amplifying warming in a positive feedback loop. In 1896, he published the first
climate model of its kind, projecting that halving CO2 levels could have produced a drop in temperature
initiating an ice age. Arrhenius calculated the temperature increase expected from doubling CO2 to be
around 5–6  °C.[344] Other scientists were initially skeptical and believed that the greenhouse effect was
saturated so that adding more CO2 would make no difference, and that the climate would be self-
regulating.[345] Beginning in 1938, Guy Stewart Callendar published evidence that climate was warming
and CO2 levels were rising,[346] but his calculations met the same objections.[345]

Developing scientific consensus

There is a near-complete scientific consensus that the climate is warming and that this is caused by human
activities. As of 2019, agreement in recent literature reached over 99%.[351][352] No scientific body of
national or international standing disagrees with this view.[353] Consensus has further developed that some
form of action should be taken to protect people against the impacts of climate change. National science
academies have called on world leaders to cut global emissions.[354]

Scientific discussion takes place in journal articles that are peer-reviewed. Scientists assess these every few
years in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports.[355] The 2021 IPCC Assessment Report
stated that it is "unequivocal" that climate change is caused by humans.[352]

See also
2020s in environmental history
 Anthropocene – proposed new geological
time interval in which humans are having
significant geological impact
Global cooling – minority view held by
scientists in the 1970s that imminent cooling
of the Earth would take place

The public substantially underestimates the degree

of scientific consensus that humans are causing
climate change.[347] Studies from 2019–
2021[348][349][350] found scientific consensus to
range from 98.7–100%.

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2. IPCC SR15 Ch1 2018, p. 54: These global-level rates of human-driven change far exceed
the rates of change driven by geophysical or biosphere forces that have altered the Earth
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3. Our World in Data, 18 September 2020
4. IPCC SRCCL 2019, p. 7: Since the pre-industrial period, the land surface air temperature
has risen nearly twice as much as the global average temperature (high confidence).
Climate change... contributed to desertification and land degradation in many regions (high
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climate variability expected to enhance the risk and severity of wildfires in many biomes
such as tropical rainforests (high confidence).
5. IPCC SROCC 2019, p. 16: Over the last decades, global warming has led to widespread
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