Equipment Data Collection 2 Spot Speed Study EEE GE Determining Roadway Speeds jon roadways. High speeds carry a high risk, whereas low speeds are rela- O bserving vehicle speeds is one way traffic engineers measure travel safety being based on observed speeds, it is imperative that such speed data be col- lected correctly and presented effectively. ‘Many things affect the way drivers behave on the roadway. The proximity of roadside hazards, such as trees and utility poles, the frequency of driveways or curb cuts, and the presence of pedestrians—to name just a few—affect how vehicle operators pilot their vehicles. Since each driver is affected differently, the taaffic engineer must look at a spectrum of vehicle-driver combinations, observe how each negotiates travel on the roadway, and define the range of speeds that may be expected at any particular time. The e« for the data collection procedure is: wre sophisticated equipment is available—such as hand-held radar or laser—then it can be used to refine the collection procedure, ‘The procedure to be followed for data collection does not require any special equipment. Although radar detectors and the like can be used, the manual method described here will suffice in most cases if the observer follows the proce- dure, As an option, this lab may be completed using videotape of the selected6 roadway. However, the student must ensure that the videotape is recorded in real time and that it contains all the information needed to accomplish the task. the site, and choose a location and time to take observations. ‘To accomplish this step, the observer must know the intended use for the information to be gathered. If the the data is to limits, then. To obtain quality data, the observer needs to ere his presence will If the observer is visible to drivers, the data can be biased toward lower-than-normal speeds, since drivers usually slow their vehicles when they think they are being moni- tored. The observer need not hide, however. Waiting at a bus top, sitting in a vehicle in an adjacent parking lot, or sitting in a restaurant overlooking the roadway are just some of the places where drivers expect to see people and will not be alarmed by the observer's presence. 2. Mark the speed trap. ‘The recorded time is later used to compute vehicle speed. The trap’s length should be governed by the anticipated speeds of the observed traffic, Minimum suggested lengths are shown in Table 2-1. Table 2-1. Recommended Trap Length 7 those timing the vehicles, but _ ‘The investiga- tor should exercise extreme care when working close to moving traffic. ‘Markings should be placed outside the traveled way, preferably on sidewalks or carbs. Physical features such as utility poles, trees, and signposts can be used as the trap markers. Spot Speed StudyData Analysis 3. Collect the data, and record it on the Spot Speed Study form. ‘The observer may wish to use the Spot Speed Study Data Collection Form ‘on page 9 to record the speed data. All of the information at the top of the form must be completed before data collection can proceed 1¢ observer should then repeat the process until the required 100 observations are obtained. (See the “Appendix for a complete discussion of sample size determination.) 4. Check your work before leaving the field. Before leaving the field, the data collection form should be checked to see that all field data have been collected correctly. The student should compute ‘one or two speeds from the observed times to see if they are reasonable. Since the speed observations deal only with one direction of travel, speeds for the opposite direction can be collected by repeating the steps above. i 1. Compute speeds. ‘A column is provided on the data collection sheet to compute the speed of each of the vehicles observed. 2. Construct Speed Groups. ‘Once the speeds have been computed, the data analysis form provided on page 13 can be used. In Column 1, Speed Groups, the analyst should group the data by the nearest one-mile-per-hour s ec, TERT The second would be 27.0 mph and so on, Then, in Column 2, Number Observed, the analyst enters the number of observations Falling within the corresponding speed group. entered inColumn2, ___ 3. Compute Frequency and Cumulative Frequency. Frequency is the percent of the total observations that are associated with a speed group. Column 3, For the 23-mph group mentioned above, the entry would be four percent, since the total number of observations is 100. Spot Speed Study 78 ‘Spot Speed Study Cumulative frequency, Column 4, is the total percent of the observations in a particular speed group and all slower speed groups. For example, if the 24-mph group were 12% and the 23-mph group 4%, then the cumulative frequency for the 24-mph group is 12 plus 4 or 16%, Plot the Cumulative Frequency Curve. “To plot the cumulative frequency curve, the points to be plotted, Column 5, must be defined. Since the cumulative frequency was determined using speed groups, it is appropriate that the high points of cach speed group be used to construct the graph. So if we were to plot the 23-mph and 24-mph speed-group data previously mentioned, we would use 24 mph with 4%, 25 mph with 16%, and so on. Our plot uses the abscissa, or X-axis, for the speed and the ordinate, or ¥-axis, for the cumulative frequency. Such a plot appears in the following example. Example Spot Speed Plot 100 70) 60] 0 0 Cumulative Frequency 20 o 10 20 30 0 30 o Observed Speed Determine the 50th percentile speed, the 85th percentile speed, and the normal speed range. ‘The 50th percentile speed represents what many people mistakenly consider the average speed on the roadway. It is not the average but the median, which is the middle value of the ordered set of speeds observed. It does not really tell us anything about what is happening on the roadway. ‘The observed 851 i is what most drivers view as the upper limit of safe travel speeds. Itis often found at the uppet portion of the cumulative frequency curve's constant slope. In some cases, it corresponds, to the posted speed limit.Spot Speed Study Data Collection Form Location: Observers: Date: Time: Direction of Travel: Posted Speed: Weather Conditions: Length of trap: Time, sec |Speed, mph] Time, sec |Speed, mph] Time, sec |Speed, mph] Time, sec Spot Speed Study 9Spot Speed Study ‘Sample Data Collection Form Location: Bled. Observer's: Bill Smits Date.__ 3/25/2077 Time, Mi Direction of Travel:_MB__ Posted Speed:_5O meh Weather Condlitions;__faér__ Length of Trap:__1 76 feet Speed Time ‘Speed Time Speed 28,5 28 428 LF 44,5 32,4 3.5 342 37 32.4 56,5 35 34.2 28 42.8 29D 41 29.2 41 29.2 53,5 32 374 29 413 28,5 3F 30.7 3.2 SH4. 30.7 3.2 S74 3.5 342 315 32 3A4 3A 38.6 49.9. 3.5 354.2 3.4 55.2 428 3.0 EZ 42 28,5 59.9 248 428 3.1 586 55.2 3g 307 45 26.6 374 3.5 342 3,8 315 28,5 5.6 53,5 39 30.7 445 4.6 26,0 Baca 56.5 315 43 278 42 28,5 46,0 29 413 29: 415 30.7 3.7 324 5.4 55,2 36,5 3.0 39D 4.5 278 34,2 3.8 B15 3itis| 38.6. 34.2 35 54,2 aie 30.7 3E5 27 445 42 26,5 565 3.5 365 3.6 53,5 28,5 3A 358.6 3.3 36.5 3F4 34 S52 3.7 32,4 ‘Spot Speed Study "12 6. z Spot Speed Study Many engineers consider the 85th percentile speed to be what drivers view as the design speed of the roadway, however some engineers divide the 85th percentile by 0.85 to arrive at an approximation of the actual design speed. jer the pace of traffic to be that 10-mph section of the curve having the highest percentage of observations. For the example curve shown, the 50th percentile speed is 35 mph; the 85th percentile speed is 40 mph; and the speed range is 30 to 42 mph. Interpret the speed curve. This step in the process can be very elaborate or very succinct, depending on why the study is being performed and how the results will be used. However, all studies should answer the following questions + How do the 85th percentile speed and the posted speed limit compare? + "What percentage of traffic observed was traveling over the speed limit? + Js the range of speeds particularly broad or narrow? Why? + Is there an indication that drivers view the design speed of the roadway as higher than it is? \ Draw conclusions based on these observations. ‘The last step in the analysis is to draw conclusions based on the observed data and prepare the report. Analysts must base conclusions on the observed data without the influence of their personal opinion. For exam- ple, an analyst cannot state, based solely on a speed study, that more law enforcement will solve a speeding problem. A study of law enforcement practices on this roadway must be performed before such a conclusion can be reachedSpot Speeds Data Analysis Location: Direction: Date: Date of Observations: Timo: Analyst ‘Cumulative Frequency @ Spot Speed Study 13Sample Data Analysis Spot Speeds Location: loycle Bly Direction: NB. Date:_ 5/27/2011 Date of Observations:_3/2 5/2011 Analyst Bil Emich ‘Speed Number Frequency Groups Observed (%) a) (2) 8) Z Z 26 7 7 3 a 2 2 3 28 29 # F 72 29 30 4 4 76 30 BT é é 24 37 32 z z 3f SZ 33 é é 3F 33 34 é é 45 34 35 77 a 56 35 36 5 3 6f 36 SF F F 68 37 EZ} g 2 FF 38 39 3 3 62 39 40 3 3 65. 40 47 ° ° 65 41 42 3 3 90 42 45 3 3 95 43 44 oO o 95 44 45 2 2 oF 45 46 ° 0 a 46 4F 1 1 98 47 48 o ° 98 48 49 o ° 98 49 50 1 7 9 50 St o o 99 37 52 ° oO EZ 52 33 | ft 7 100 53 Spot Speed Study 15Equipment Data Collection 16 Turning Movement Counts =a mam Assessing the Signalized Intersection | vehicles use a section of roadway or an intersection is necessary for ana- lyzing and timing signals, determining capacity, and estimating the level of service that will be needed. Accurate counts of current traffic flow pro- vide a departure point for estimates of future traffic volume. Moreover, the effec tiveness of various traffic control measures, geometric modifications, or maintenance practices is governed by traffic volume data. The turning move- ment count at controlled intersections (those containing signs or signals) is another way to determine traffic volume. A ny traffic study requires accurate traffic counts. Determining how mary Other than note-taking materials and a watch, no special equipment is required. If a manual or electronic turning-movement count board is available, it should be used. A calculator or laptop computer can be programmed. to ease the count- ing task. For the observer's first experience collecting this type of data, it is best to have two or three members of the data collection team working together. Before going to the field, the observer should know how the data is going to be used. The following procedure assumes th¢ ‘As described the observers will be mes volumes This method serves most traffic engineering needs except when observing a signal at which the demand volume exceeds the capacity. In this case, the observers need to collect supple- mental information regarding the unmet demand. Unmet demand at a signalized intersection is evident by the existance of queues on the approaches, which do not dissipate with one signal change. Put another way, some drivers must wait through more than one complete cyclechange before they move through the intersection. *his value can be recorded at the end of eacl 15 minute period for each of the approaches throughout the counting period and noted as unmet demand volume. 1 Visit the site, and choose a location and time to collect the data. “collected. If the purpose is to determine the peak-hour fein at the inter- section for use in later analysis, then the observer should first obtain previ- ‘ous traffic data for the intersection or one or more of the approach roadways. This data should indicate what time of day the peak-hour traffic is likely to occur. in the absence of previous traffic data, the observer should conduct a machine count, or otherwise observe peak conditions, to identify the peak hour traffic flow. Unlike a spot speed study, the person conducting the TMC does not need to be invisible to the drivers. It is unusual for traffic volumes to be affected by the presence of people counting traffic, so he Gianna SPACER? a vantage point that gives a clear view of the intersection and all of its approaches. If necessary, more than one person may be needed to observe all of the traffic. If video cameras are used, the equipment should be placed where turning vehicles do not block the view of the road. Collect and record the data. Se est the count period—usually three hours. Before starting, the times marking the begin- ning of each fifteen minute observation period are recorded. Then the watch is started, and the volume count begins. During each time period, the 1¢ Turning ec ft Data Collection Form (page 19) has a column for each of the twelve possible movements that can occur at the intersection. i - 2 collision or other emergency affect traffic flow during the time period, the observer should discard the data and return another day. ‘The data collection form shown on page 19 is just one way the data can be recorded in the field. The observer may wish to program a calculator or lap- top computer to facilitate this task. ‘Turning Movement Counts 17Data Analysis, 1 3. Check your work before leaving the field. Before leaving the field, the data shects should be checked to see that they are complete. Items such as weather, location, street names, observer names, and the like should be verified. Any unusual observations should be listed as comments. Check the data. Even though the data is checked for completeness prior to leaving the field, it is wise to check each Field Data Sheet again at the office prior to reduc- tion and analysis. Summarize field sheets. ‘The field sheets are summarized on the Turning Movement Count Summary sheet (page 21). An example showing peak-hour data appears on page 23. Identify the peak hour, and compute the peak-hour factor. e peak hour is determined by identifying the four consecutive fifteen minute (1-hour) periods having the highest volume. In the example shown, the period from 4:15 to 5:15 has the highest hourly volume, with 3021 vehicles observed. Now a summary of traffic can be prepared for each of the twelve possible movements through the intersection. This summary appears as the last line on the example sum- mary sheet; it shows the number of vehicles observed making a particular move during each of the four consecutive fifteen-minute intervals of the peak hour. Next, the peak hour factor (PHF) is computed. spread out evenly throughout the hour. Computation of the peak-hour fac- tor is not limited to the intersection as a whole. ft can be computed for each approach and for each lane or lane group also. 48 Turning Movement CountsTurning Movement Count Data Collection Form Location: Direction: Observer: Date: Weather: Comments: Sheet of Turning Movement Counts 18iv | iol} ou s 1 jr) wy s 1 |e) ow s TV | reo. 1 |sui6eq reo, oul Id wogoauig uonseua uuogoasig years yang eens yeas 819590 ‘wo1200) yeureeh fea ea Arewuing qunog juewenoy Buwing a Turning Movement CountsaM uonsenig at ‘woy9aIG a ‘uoqoeuig TN voyoaug Foo ieong YOO wens TY reeng TW 880g ne) VET Daa i wane rng exnzenn er — fea $1 20 Aewuing yunog juewenowy Burwiny ajdweg 23 ‘Turning Movement Counts.24 Prepare a graphical summary. While a tabular summary is useful, a graphical summary presents informa- tion that can be more readily comprehended. An example of a graphical summary is shown in Figure 3-1 on page 25. All twelve vehicle movements are shown, and the number of vehicles that were observed executing a par- ticular move appears in the appropriate box. the intersection. In the example, the total entering is 3021 and the total exiting is 3021, Interpret the data and draw conclusions. Interpretation of volume data depends on the use for which the count was conducted. Among the questions to be addressed are: = Is the traffic evenly distributed among all the approaches to the inter- section? + Does the peak-hour factor indicate that a surge of traffic is arriving at the intersection during a particular time frame, or is the traffic spread out evenly over the peak hour? + Are there heavy turning volumes? + What percentage of the approach volume is heavy vehicles? + At intersections without signals, is the volume of traffic moving through the intersection limited because of delays caused by sign interpretation? While some of these questions may lead to useful conclusions, volume data alone cannot answer all the questions that may arise about an intersection. ‘Additional information such as accident history, signal timing, pedestrian flow, and volume distribution throughout the remainder of the day may be needed to complete the traffic engineering analysis. ‘Turning Movement CountsFigure 3-1. GRAPHIC SUMMARY OF VEHICLE MOVEMENTS INTERSECTION: POWDER SPRINGS ROAD, CALLOWAY ROAD & CHEATHAM HILL ROAD OBSERVERS: _“RADER, ROBERSON, MARTIN DATE: _SEPTEMBER 8, 2000, erry: MARIETTA DAY: FRIDAY TIME: 4:30PM - 5:30PM UTHBOUND TRAFFIC TOTAL ENTERING INTERSECTION EW | 3249 ws | 1169 froraL|44i ROAD Nor TO SCALE oe CHEATHAM HILL \WESTBOUND TRAFFIC EASTBOUND TRAFFIC =: a — CALLOWAY, ROAD NORTHBOUND TRAFFIC Turning Movement Counts POWDER SPRINGS ROAD 25Equipment 4 i Vehicle Delay Study EEE lm Assessing the Signalized Intersection Il uch has been written, using Highway Capacity Manual (HCM 2010) methodology, regarding the computation of capacity and levels of service at intersections. But often overlooked is the fact that field ‘observations are the basis for the computations. The amount of delay encoun- tered by the typical vehicle using an intersection approach determines the Level of Service for that approach. Direct measurement of this delay provides a quick, reli- able method for determining the effectiveness of an intersection. ‘This section focuses on field and office procedures that allow the user to measure the average vehicle delay per approach and thereby assess the perform- ance of an operating signal. The procedures illustrate how the stopped delay can. be measured to approximate the control delay now used by the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) to determine Level of Service, Field assessment of average delay per vehicle, and the translation of that observation into HCM- designated levels of service, is a powerful tool for many traffic engineering applications. In addition to allowing the engineer to determine the current performance level of an existing signal, each approach modification—and the resulting effect on intersection performance—can be analyzed. The change in Level of Service caused by a change in the timing of a signal can be determined quickly and accurately, giving almost immediate feedback to the designer. Fine ‘tuning of signal timing while in the field is a real possibility. No special equipment is needed to complete the procedure, top computer or calculator programmed to aid in data entry and a video camera. If properly placed, the video camera will allow data to be collected simultane- ously on multiple approaches and for multiple movements on a single approach.Data Collection ‘The manual method of data collection is presented here and assumes no special ‘equipment is used. It is important to understand that if simultaneous measure- ment of delays on multiple approaches—or for multiple moves within an approach—is needed, then multiple observers or a videotaping device is necessary. 1. Visit the site to determine the best observation points and time for observations. As in all data-gathering efforts, the observer should ascertain the best time of day to collect the data. turning-moveme! 1, or similar traf- needed prior (o executing the delay study. fic volume information, may 2. Collect and record the data. Before collecting the data, the analyst must decide which lanes or lane Sean ESTED THe HICM recognizes lane groups as the group of lanes on an approach from which drivers can complete the same move during the same signal phase. lat wn through lane and a combined right-turn and through lane—all controlled bya single phase—is considered to be a lane group and would warrant a single delay determination for the entire lane group. Once the analyst has identified all of the lane groups for all of the approaches, delay information can be collected for each. As an example, two lanes will be studied: 1) a left-tum Jane with a dedi- cated left-turn phase and 2) a combined through and right-turn lane. Both lanes need not be on the same approach to the intersection, although data collection is easier if they are on the same approach, The procedure for collection of the data is quite simpl vehicles will be counted more than once if.they are stopped for more than one interval. This is acceptable. Simultaneously, using a one-minute recording interval, the number of vehi- cles using the lane group on the approach—and whether they must stop or not—is also recorded. Assuming that all vehicles which must stop is approx- imately fifty percent, the procedure should continue until a minimum of Vehicle Delay Study 2728 350 vehicles are observed entering the intersection via this lane group. The form on page 29, or one of similar design, may be used to record the find- ings. Also, it may be helpful to have two observers per lane or lane group, with one collecting the delay information and one collecting the volume information. Check the data before leaving the field. ‘The columns should be quickly summed and the average delay computed ‘before leaving the field. These computations will be checked later during the analysis phase but are computed here in order to check that the col- lected data is reasonable. Summarize field data. ‘To summarize the data, add each of the columns as was done on the exam- ple data collection form. This should be done as a preliminary in the field, if possible, so that any anomalies can be revealed. Be aware that the summa- tion of vehicle delays and the total volume may not coincide, since they are two entirely different data items. The delay data may reflect vehicles that were delayed more than one interval, thus counted more than once, whereas the volume numbers reflect each vehicle counted once and only once. Calculate total and average control delay. Several calculations are needed. First, the total delay observed is calculated. ‘This value is simply the number of delay intervals multiplied by fifteen sec- onds. For the example, this is 154 x 15 = 2310 vehicle-seconds of delay. One vehicle-second of delay is one vehicle delayed for one second. ‘The total delay divided by the total number of vehicles delayed equals the average delay per stopped vehicle. For the example data this is 2310/23 9.9 seconds per vehicle. This value indicates how long a vehicle is delayed if it is required to stop on the approach. It is not used to determine the Level of Service for the approach. ‘The average delay per vehicle is computed by dividing the total delay by the total volume. HCM procedure multiplies this value by 0.9 to compensate for sampling error. A correction factor is added to account for the effect of the average number of vehicles processed per cycle. And, adjustments are made for acceleration and deceleration time. The reader is referred to the HM for further explanation of this method. Vehicle Delay StudyVehicle Delay Data Collection Form ‘Approach: Observers. Lane Group: Date: Time Period: Weather: Vehicles Delayed.» Vehicle Delay Study 29A very close approximation of the values obtained by the HCM procedure is calculated by dividing the total stopped delay by the total volume and multiplying the result by 1.3. For the example data, this is (2310/409)(1.3) = 7.3 seconds per vehicle. This value is a close approximation of control delay and can be used to identify the Level of Service encountered by the traffic Often, the percentage of total volume delayed is computed to provide insight into what portion of the traffic is forced to stop at the intersection. For the example data, this is 233/409 = 0.57 or 57%. Compare calculated delays to Highway Capacity Manual Level of Service limits. ‘The Level of Service is determined by the average control delay per vehicle, using the Highway Capacity Manual limits for each Level of Service. Using Table 4-1, the example approach operating during the observation period at 7.3 seconds of delay per vehicle is at Level-of-Service A. Table 4-1. HCM Levels of Service Level of Service Control Delay per Vehicle, sec 10.1 0 20.0 20.1 10 35.0 35.110 55.0 55.1 t0 80.0 Summarize and draw conclusions. Ac this point’ itis important to summarize what the study has revealed and what it has not revealed. If all of the intersection’s lane groups have been studied, then the results should be presented graphically to facilitate an understanding of their interaction. This type of presentation will immedi- ately identify those portions of the intersection that are suffering, and it will allow the traffic engineer to determine if the signal is performing as intended. If desired, a weighted average of the average delay per vehicle can be computed to identify an overall Level of Service for the intersection. This value means little, however, since the pattern and quality of flows are what is of interest. Vehicle Delay Study 3132 Several questions should be addressed with the findings. They include but are not limited to: + How does this intersection’s performance compare to rest of the system's performance? + Can things improve at this location? + Should there be an ongoing delay study of this location as part of a “preventive maintenance” program? ‘The question of capacity of the intersection is intentionally omitted from the previous list of questions. Capacity can be determined by measuring saturation flow rates, as explained elsewhere in this manual, and a low Level of Service can indicate a capacity deficiency. However, the observer should refrain from drawing conclusions regarding capacity from Level-of- Service observations. Vehicle Delay StudyVehicle Delay ‘Sample Data Collection Form ‘Approach:. Maple and Oat Observer/s: Miller Lane Group: _Maple: Eastbound Lefe Lun le Date: 11,20 _Time Period: _4:00 PM = Weather: es 4:00 2 = 4 7 25 sf 4:07 2 3 2 3 4:02 Qi 4 2 oO 4:05. oO je = 3 4:04. F oO 0 oO * 4:05 7 z i a 0. oO oO 2 6 3 3 oO 0. 3 6 2, O (a 7 3 a 6 4 0. 0. 3 5 4 3 oO t 2 4 4 4 6 oO (ej oO t Vehicle Delay Study 33Equipment 34 Parking Stud) GE On- and Off-Street Analysis sions erupt in parking lots when one driver “steals” a space from another, Drivers pay parking garages high prices for the right to park one block closer to their destination. Shoppers choose businesses that have sufficient and convenient parking, and many businesses owe their success or failure to the existence or lack of sufficient, nearby parking. Even the success and failure of schools, parks, and similar public-usé facilities can be linked to parking. Yet, parking studies—if done at all—often fail to identify whether adequate parking S. Part of th Is the existence of empty spaces throughout the day a sufficient measure? If 30, how many? Should the parking duration be limited? Are those the parking was created to serve the actual users? Is the supply of parking equal to or greater than the demand for parking? These and other questions need to be answered in order to draw proper conclusions for a particular locale. In this chapter, a procedure is presented for collecting and analyzing data on parking usage. The investigator will collect sufficient data to calculate park- ing volume, duration, turnover, accumulation, and load. With this data, conclu- sions can be drawn as to the sufficiency of the existing parking and any remedy required. D= love parking. This is evidenced by their behavior. Heated discus an also be used. In any case, a complete understanding of the procedure is required before anything other than basic equipment is considered.Data Collection 1. Identify the study area. ‘he procedure is applicable to both on- and off-street parking with no limit to the number of parking spaces. ‘The nature and size of the retail lot should be sufficient to demonstrate the analysis techniques. The lot should allow the observer to dio ei yrs ag es ee states where only one license plate is required, it will be necessary for the. observer to see the rear of each vehicle, regardless of how the vehicle is parked, 2. Sketch the lot, and determine the best path for data collection. Data collection requires the observer to circulate through the lot at a regu- lar interval, follow a predefined path, and fo best accomplish this task, various: Ttis important that the observer follow this i Varying from the predetermined route will jeopardize the credibility of the data. Since parking space numbering is rare, a sketch of the designated route through the lot should be kept with the data collec- tion sheets so that the numbered data entries can be associated with their spaces. 3. Prepare data collection sheets, and do a trial walk-through. ‘The data collection form on page 37 includes one row for each parking space and one column for eac! Notice that the example form on page 39 shows that each space has an entry for every time the observer circulates through the lot. Entries should have one of three forms: the last three digits of 1¢ space is emply. Preparing a sufficient amount of data collection forms in advance and testing the path through the lot will case much of the burden of the field work. 4. Collect the data. To hours of data wil be cole at 15-minae intervals, This colton period is chosen so that their will be sufficient data to demonstrate the Parking Study 35Data Analysis 36 Parking Study 5. collection and analysis techniques. The actual duration of a parking study will vary depending upon the objectives of the study. Shout: comprehensive evaluation of the parking activity warrants a more lengthy study period, possibly covering the entire business day. This emphasizes the need for the traffic engineer to define the purpose of the study early in the effort. At the start of each period, the observer proceeds through the lot, following the prescribed route and recording the license plate number of each parked vehicle, Usually, only the last three digits need be recorded—but, depend- ing on the time available to complete one circuit, the investigator should use his own judgement as to how much of the license plate can be recorded. Empty spaces should be recorded by a dash so that a full accounting of the lotis secured. On completing one circuit, the observer will wait until the quarter hour is reached and proceed with the next round of data collection. This is repeated until the full study time expires. Check the data before leaving the field. As always, data should be reviewed prior to leaving the field and any dis- crepancies resolved Summarize the data. ‘The form shown on page 41 provides for the summary of information for 40 parking spaces, The investigator shoul Note that the time a vehicle occupies a space is inferred from the observa- tion interval, but such inference can be erroneous, In the example, each space in the lot was observed at 15-minute intervals with the underlying assumption that the vehicle haa occupied the spat for a full 15-minute period, Tis assump tion is similar to that employed when measuring delays at controlled inter- sections and may or may not be valid at the location. It is allowed that errors above and below the actual values offset each other so that quality results are realized.Parking Study Data Collection Form Location: Observers: Date: Time: Weather: Sheet of Vehicles Parked 20 Parking Study 37Parking Study Sample Data Collection Form Location:_West- side Loe Observers: TRE, BLL, KC. Oate:_O2/05__Time:_4=5 PAA, __Weather:_Saans Sheet_7 of 7 Vehicles Parked Parking Study 392. Compute parking statistics. Several descriptive values can be found from the data collected, all of which will provide insight as to the behavior of the users of the lot and aid in the identification of deficiencies. They are parking volume, turnover, uration, Ioad, and accumulation, ‘The parking volume is the hourly representation of the number of vehicles using the facility during the analysis period. This is computed by adding. the “Vehicles Parked” columns of the data summary sheet and dividing by the number of hours in the observation period. For the example summary on page 43, 28 vehicles were observed during one hour so the volume is 28 vehicles-per-hour. ‘Although the average is ‘important, a study of a parking facility can include a space-by-space review of the turnover, Such an effort would yield information concerning long term versus short-term parkers along with information relating to the rela- tive attractiveness of individual parking spaces within the lot. Duration is the average time a vehicle occupies a space, and it is computed by vehicle-minute refers to one vehicle occupying one parking space for one minute. For the example (page 43), 28 vehicles were parked for 945 vehicle-minutes for an average of 33.75 minutes per parked vehicle Parking load is the amount of available parking actually used and is best expressed in percent. To do so, the total vehicle-hours or vehicle-minutes For the example, re used out of the ee minutes (20 spaces 60 minutes er sae) The Fring ot .ce time elapses during which vehicles search for a parking space and enter and exit spaces and lots, a parking load of 100% is nearly impossible to achieve. Garber and Hoel, among others, suggest the average for surface lots is 85%, for garages 80%, and for on- street parking 90%. Values depend on the use of the spaces as well, with employee parking being more inclined to approach 100% than retail parking. Whereas the parking load allows an examination of the use of available parking from one perspective, a computed value that may better represent utilization of the parking is parking accumulation. The accumulation is sim- ply the total number of vehicles using the spaces at a particular time. 40 Parking StudyDate: Time: Parking Study Data Summary Form _ Weather: Observeris: Sheet Space _| Vehicles Parked Time Used Vehicles Parked of Time Used Total Parking Study 41Parking Study Sample Data Summary Form Location: West side Lob ‘Observeris: LCC Date:_O2/0.5_Time:_4-5 PM. Weather: a Sheet__7 of _1 — SI icles Parked ‘Time Used Space Vehicles Parked 2 45 a1 2 1 50 22 3 2 50 23 4 t 60 wa 5 ft 60 25 6 t 15 26 7 2 45 27 8 t 45 28 A 9 7 15 29 i a 60 30 Z a) 31, +3 60 32 2 45 33 h 30 34 7 45. 35 2 60 36 Fl 60 37 7 60 38 f 60 39 t GO. Parking Study 4344 Parking Study For the example, at 4:15, 16 vehicles were present; at 4:30, 15 vehicles, at 4:45, 17 vehicles, and at 5:00, 13 vehicles. Plotting this accumulation over time shows graphically how the parking load changes as time passes and is useful in identifying high-demand periods. ‘Summarize the data, and draw conclusions. ‘The investigator should use great care in summarizing parking data, espe- cially when presenting conclusions. Parking is a volatile issue in most com- munities, and the results will be closely scrutinized by all sectors. Consequently, the investigator should be certain that conclusions are based on the collected data and that the limitations of the methodology are clearly presented. Questions that should be addressed include: * Is the parking area fully utilized? + Does the parking demand appear to be satisfied? * Does the duration indicate that employees are using the area most attractive for customers? + What does the turnover rate indicate? * Would relocation of the acces$ drives better utilize the parking area? + Is there one time period that exhibits a much higher demand than ‘others? Why? + Bxcept for construction of new spaces, what can be done to improve parking at this location? ‘+ How can video monitoring, or mobile video taping equipment, be used to improve the data collection process?Equipment Saturation Flow Rat¢ m@§ Assessing the Signalized Intersection Ill in a fashion similar to the relationship of vehicle delay and the Level of Service. At any intersection, capacity and delay must be computed to ensure that both the quantity and the quality of flow requirements have been satisfied. Theoretical values can be used for saturation flow rate and subsequent capacity calculations, but field data can produce a closer approximation of inter- section capacity. ‘ Saturation flow rate is expressed in the quantity of vehicles per hour of green time, per lane. It is a primary measure used in determining the capacity of an approach to an intersection that is controlled by a signal. Saturation flow rate is defined as the number of vehicles that would pass through an intersection in an hour if the signal were continuously green. Knowing this, the traffic engineer can review the signal timing for that intersection, then—using the percentage of time that the approach’s indication is green—calculate the capacity of the approach. An example of such a computation is presented later in this chapter. In addition to saturation flow rate, this chapter presents the concept of startup delay and a method for its measurement when collecting saturation flow rate data, Startup delay is the extra time lost at the beginning of a green-signal phase before the traffic stream starts moving. The time lost at the beginning of a green phase, in addition to the amount of yellow time used as green time by the traffic, will allow a closer approximation of the approach capacity. An example of this calculation appears in this chapter as well. : : aturation flow rate relates to the capacity of a signal-controlled intersection; Minimum equipment needs for this procedure are a stopwatch, or other such timing device, and note-taking materials. The investigator may wish to use a lap- top or palm computer for data collection. Should limited manpower be available, then videotaping the intersection or using continuous-monitoring apparatus, such as those in Intelligent Vehicle Highway Systems, will suffice. 45Data Collection 46 Saturation Flow Rate 1 Visit the intersection to choose a location for viewing and to assess traffic flow. investigator will be evaluating a referably with no right turn on red allowe . It helps to have two observers, one for the stopping point and one for the end of the queue. When choosing an intersection approach, special attention needs to given to the anticipated flow of traffic. For the procedure to be valid, the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) states that These need not be consecutive intervals and should contain a typical mix of vehicle types. Should a queue contain one or m trucks or other ten, the morning or evening peak period will be the best time to collect the data. Record Identifying characteristics of the intersection approach. The form on page 47 shows the type of information that should be recorded prior to the collection of the traffic data, One form should be used for each ane oF lane group examined. The investigator should not be limited to just the information on the form but should include all that may be pertinent to the goal of the effort. Should the investigator wish to compare saturation flow rates by roadway grade, or some other parameter, then more informa- tion may be useful. In most cases, the example data collection form should suffice, For this study, the investigator will be determining the saturation flow rate and the startup delay. General observation should be made of yellow- and all-red time that is used as green time. Collect and record the data. ‘Two observers or more may be employed. At the beginning of the green time for the phase, the watch is started. One observer will note the total number of vehicles in the queue when the green phase begins. As the fourth vehicle's rear axle crosses the chosen stop point, the time is recorded on the data form. (The first 4 vehicles exhibit a startup delay in addition to the normal headway between moving vehicles.)Saturation Flow Rate Data Collection Form Intersection: City Observers: Date: Time: Lane: Movements Allowed: Cycles | Cycle 4 Saturation Flow Rate 47Saturation Flow Rate ‘Sample Data Collection Form Intersection:_SPSH Drive and Hort City:__ Marietta Observeris:__7RG, N7C Date:__#/12 _Time__42M, Lane:_L7 tormet NB___ Movements Allowed:_£7 ont Queue | Cyclet |’ cycte2 | Cycles |-Cyclea |. Cycles | Cycleé-| Cycle7 9 POF 10 21.0. 221 oa . eB " 23,5 2 30:0 ; B 4 " 1 332 Saturation Flow Rate 49Data Analysis fhe stop point or the green phase ends. When his occurs, the watch is stopped and the time is recorded. Should the queue not clear the intersection ‘when the green phase ends, the observers should record the end of the green time in the appropriate row representing the number of vehicles that entered during the green. The observers should continue timing during the clearance interval (the yellow and all-red) until the rear axle of the last vehicle enters the intersection. ‘When the stream of vehicles stops entering the intersection, the amount of ‘clearance time is recorded. The total green time, cycle Jength, and amount of clearance time used should be recorded as shown in Cycle 2 on the example data sheet (page 49). ‘The data collection form is constructed so that a study of the variability in headways (the time between the rear axle of one vehicle passing a point until the rear axle of the next passes a point) can be conducted. If this is desired, then the time at which each vehicle passes the stop point should be recorded. 4, Check the data before leaving the field. ‘As always, the investigator should check the data before leaving the field. ‘This checking should include the green time for the cycle observed, confir- ‘mation that the minimum number of cycles, 15, were observed and valid data obtained, and the time for the fourth vehicle. 4. Summarize the field data. The first three columns of the Saturation Flow Rate Data Analysis form (page 51) take data directly from the data collection sheet. 2. Calculate average saturation flow rate, and startup delay. tion headway. Thi: ray Ths me ieitee om the eens the effects of nie lelay, since it is measured after the traffic stream starts to move and stabilize. Some startup delay has been found as far back as the sixth or seventh vehicle in the traffic stream (page 53). However, the effects of startup delay on the computation of average headway and saturation flow rate have been determined to be minimal (HCM). 50 Saturation Flow RateSaturation Flow Rate Data Analysis Intersection: City: Observer/s: Date: Time: Lane: Movements Allowed: Average | Saturation ‘Cycle 14 Nn” Th Headway. Flow vlefalolufaloliel 10. 7 2 ey B TES "aa [ | IS o Saturation Flow Rate 51Saturation Flow Rate Sample Data Analysis Intersection: PSU Drive and Hornet City.___ Marietta. Observers: AUG Date__1/12 _Time:__4 PM, _tane:_/T Hornet NB___ Movements Allowed:_L7-o/tl ‘Saturation Headway. |- Flow 197 | -1637 225 | 1676 185. | 1972. | 240 Q LOS | 1770 | 477 [= 0 190.| 1695 | 250 | 0 204 | 1765 |. 434 “0. 207. | 178F | 134 0 197 | 1657: | 1 133 0 a4 75. | 339 | 225 | 1016 |. FP 3aF oF é 7H0. | 485%). 1972 | 240 a 29 70 221 | 2035 | 1770 | FF o. ae 6 | 175 | 190 | 7895 | 230 o 25 12 2 187 | 204 | 1765.|_ 134 0 o4 77 25.5 | 20? | 78% | 134 Q a gS g 197 | £04 | 1765 "| 134 } 1805 Saturation Flow Rate 53The average headway is computed using the following equation: ‘Average headway = (Tw — T4y/(N-4) For Cycle 1: Average headway = (21.0~9.2) / (10-4) = 1.97 seconds per vehicle ‘The saturation flow rate is simply the average headway converted to an hourly rate. Measured in vehicles per hour of grecn per lane (vphgpl) this value can be expected to fall in the 1700 to 2000 range. Highway Capacity “Manual procedures use 1900 as the default value when field measurements are not available. Saturation flow rate = 3600/Average Headway For Cycle 1: Saturation flow rate = 3600/1.97 = 1831 vehicles per hour of green Recall that startup delay is the time lost at the beginning of the cycle for the traffic steam to start moving. Computation of this parameter from field data requires that the average headway be deducted from the time taken by the first four vehicles to enter the intersection. The remaining time is the startup delay, Values normally expected are in the one- to two- second range. The following equation is used for the calculation: Startup delay = T4 - (4)( Average Headway) For Cycle 1 Startup delay = 9.2 ~ (4)(1.97) = 1.33 seconds ‘After the computations for each cycle are completed, the averages are cal- culated and entered in the appropriate cell. The average delay of 1.55 sec- | onds falls in the range that may be expected, as does the saturation flow rate of 1803 vphgpl. 3. Identify maximum green time, effective green time, j and cycle length. | When assessing a pre-timed signal, However, for a semi-actuated signal—such as in the example—or a fully actuated signal, the length of the green phase used in capacity determinations should be the maximum green time. For the example signal the maximum green time is 30 seconds. Using the maximum green time, the startup delay, and the amount of clear- ance time used by the traffic stream, the effective green can be computed. 54 Saturation Flow Rate‘The effective green represents the total time during a cycle that vehicles on the approach lane can be expected to move. It is computed using the follow- ing equation: Effective green = (Maximum green) — (Startup delay) + (Clearance time used) The clearance time used can be a difficult value to obtain, since not every cycle will have a queue which uses the clearance time to process vehicles. As the lane approaches its maximum capacity it can be expected that approximately ¥ of the clearance time will be used by the traffic. Following the Highway Capacity Manual’s recommendation for a minimum of 15 cycles to obtain the saturation flow rate, it is recommended that at least 15 cycles be observed, during which vehicles use the clearance interval to proceed through the intersection, when the clearance time is to be deter- mined. For the example shown, only two cycles had vehicles using the clearance time, so the computation of effective green will take a conserva- tive approach and assume a value of zero for the clearance time used. For the example data: Bffective green = 30 ~ 1.55 + 0 = 28.45 seconds ‘The example signal has a fixed cycle of 90 seconds. Should a signal with a variable cycle length be observed, the maximum cycle length should be used to calculate the capacity of the approach. Calculate lane capacity. Lane capacity is a direct function of the cycle length, the effective green time, and the saturation flow rate. If the lane were presented with 2 con- tinuous uninterrupted green phase, then the capacity of the lane would be the saturation flow rate, or 1802 vehicles per hour. This is never the case. To calculate the lane’s capacity, only thet portion of the hour that the signal is green is considered. In addition, consideration must be given to the number of cycles occurring within the hour and the resulting startup delay, or time lost, at the begin- ning of each cycle. Computation of the effective green time as explained above takes this into account. Lane capacity is computed using the follow- ing equati Lane capacity = [(Effective green time)/(Cycle length)] x (Saturation flow rate) For the example shown: Lane capacity = [(28.45}/(90)} x (1803 vphgp!) = 570 vehicles per hour. Saturation Flow Rate 5556 ‘This value represents the capacity of the lane and should not be used to time the signal. The next chapter, Poisson Distribution, presents in greater detail some of the challenges of signal timing. Interpret results, and draw conclusions. As in any field study, interpretation of the results partially depends on the reason the study was conducted and how the results will be used Questions include: * Is the saturation flow rate within the expected range? If not, are there indications as to why? * Is the capacity sufficient for the existing demand volume? + Does the capacity appear to be sufficient to accommodate traffic gener- ated by future land use? * Do the measured values for startup delay fall within the expected range? If not, why? * Is a portion of the clearance interval being used by traffic as green time? If'so, what does this indicate? ‘The study of intersection capacity alone does not tell the whole story. Analysts should refrain from drawing conclusions without assessing other characteristics of the intersection. Saturation Flow RateEquipment Poisson Distribution m@ Assessing the Signalized Intersection IV any theoretical analyses of intersections assume that vehicles arrive at an intersection in a random fashion, The ability to verify that traf- fic arrives in a statistically random pattern is of great value to the traffic engineer. For example, procedures from the Highway Capacity Manual for the analysis of signalized intersections require the analyst to state whether the wwaffic stream follows a random pattem or is affected by some other source, such as a signal upstream from the approach, Default values for analyses assume a random distribution if field data, in particular the platoon ratio mentioned later, in this manual, are not available. ‘The Poisson distribution is a simple, random, statistical distribution. It is referred to as a counting distribution used to predict the number of occurrences of an event within a certain interval. Often, When used in traffic engineering, the occurrences are vehicles arriving, and the time interval is cycle length. The Poisson equation can be used to estimate the number of vehicles arriving at an intersection within a given time span so that the amount of green needed to process a predicted number of vehicles can be estimated. In conjunction with the saturation flow rate, the Poisson distributi “hat can be expected (0 fall) Also, when left-turning traffic is of concern, the length of a left-turn lane can be estimated by using this random distribution. Including this topic in the manual serves two purposes. First, It provides a ‘procedure for estimating the randomness of the traffic stream by comparing ‘ield measurements to computed theoretical values, Secondly, it demonstrates how a statistical distribution can be used in conjunction with field-measured saturation flow rates, startup delays, and volumes to calculate the minimum green time for an approach to an intersection. Equipment can be as simple as a stopwatch and note-taking materials or as sophisticated as a centralized video monitoring system and laptop computer. ‘The requirement here is that the equipment must allow the observer to identify 57Data Collect n 1. lef tum Loew (hoi) Waffle to accomplish the study. right tum Free (AS) ele eee ty 7 100 consecutive twenty-second intervals and observe the number of vehicles arriving at the intersection within each of the intervals. Select a signalized intersection that has sufficient ‘You will be studying an exclusive left-turn lane and a combined through- i he lanes shoul icient number of data points for the analysis ‘The observer must first decide which lanes or lane groups should be mea- sured. A Jane group can be thought of as one lane or group of lanes from which drivers can complete the same move during the same phase. For example, an exclusive left-turn lane and a combined right-turn and through-lane are examined as two separate lane groups. The Poisson distri- bution would be applied separately for each of the two lane groups. However, a combined left-turn and through-lane and a combined right- turn and through-lane approach controlled by a single-signal phase would be one lane group, and the study would look at the distribution for the entire lane group, 2. For 100 consecutive twenty-second intervals, record the number of vehicles arriving at the intersection during each interval. ‘The interval length will affect the quality of the results and should be cho- sen carefully. The twenty-second interval offers both enough observations and a reasonable time in the field. An interval shorter than 15 seconds would yield very few points for the probability curve and not allow a signif- icant comparison to the theoretical Poisson distribution. On the other hand, longer interval lengths necessitate longer and impractical field-data collection periods. The data collection will be done for each of the lanes separately but can be accomplished concurrently. The observer can accomplish this task by desig- nating a point on the approach to the intersection for determining whether a vehicle has arrived. This point is best chosen upstream of the intersection but before the point representing the maximum queue for that lane. This will allow vehicles arriving at the intersection to be counted without inter- ference from the queue of vehicles waiting at the intersection when the signal is red. In many instances, the best location for this point will be the beginning of the separate left-turn lane. A Poisson Distribution Data Collection Form is provided on page 59. 58 Poisson DistributionPoisson Distribartion Lattin Lane = sauetia daw einen Thal) igo turn Lame Gandy - Seleckin = aan umaran ¢ BS) aa = TR: slab turn lone exclasive ~ Hy Combine. right turn A Thragh x Girovp ing lone gp ex teft turn lone exclusive —— 1 lone orp Combine. right turn &Throwgh— 1 Lone. o™p + i controlled by game signol then conclude it is the some lone grup = Foch lone thos its oun poisson distr’ bation ~ Mork the destynated bine. bi Seand “Intervel 1c second ~ short pre longer Used be eshimele the time A signal cycle 4 The approvale com ondDate:_ Time Time: Vehicles Time Poisson Distribution Data Collection Form Observer Lane Group: Vehicles Time Intersection: Vehicles | Time | Vehicles Poisson Distribution 59Data Analysis, Check the data before leaving the field. As always, the investigator should check the data before leaving the field. ‘The data should be summed, and a check of the correct number of intervals should be made. Summarize field data. A completed Poisson Distribution Data Summary Form is included on page 63 to demonstrate the reduction of the field data, Key to the understanding of the Poisson distribution is to take great care in the treatment of the col- lected material; small errors can have a serious effect on results. For the 100 observations recorded, sum those having the same number of vehicles observed, and enter it in the corresponding row. For the example shown on page 65, 34 observed frequency intervals were found to have no vehicles arriving, 34 intervals were observed in which only one vehicle arrived, 16 intervals were observed where two vehicles arrived, and so on. When com-i plete, sum the values in Column 2, and check to sec that the total equals the number of intervals observed. Next, calculate the number of vehicles observed. Multiply the values in Column 1 by the values in Column 2, and enter the product in Column 3. ‘The sum of the values in Column 3 is the total number of vehicles arriving during the observation period. Divide this total by the total number of intervals observed to yield the average number of vehicles arriving during a 15-second interval. This is the average arrival rate (m#, or AAR) and will be used in the Poisson equation to calculate theoretical probabilities. Calculate observed probabilities. ‘An assessment of traffic randomness requires a comparison of the observed distribution of arrivals to the theoretical distribution of arrivals. To do this, itis necessary to compute the observed probabilities. The observed probability is a measure of the likelihood that an observer randomly choosing a 15-second interval would witness a particular number of vehicles arriving ‘The values are a result of dividing the observed frequency for each level by the total number of observed intervals, or Column 2 divided by the sum of Column 2. Therefore, the observed probability of having 4 vehicles arrive during a 15-second interval is 5/100 = 0.05 or 5%. Stated another way, the observer can expect to see exactly 4 vehicles arrive in a 15-second interval 5% of the time. ‘The cumulative probability represents the likelihood an observer will count a particular number of vehicles, or less, during a randomly selected inter- val. Ic is computed by adding all of the observed probabilities for that value and all lower values. For example, the probability of 4, or less, vehicles Poisson Distribution 6162 arriving during an interval is 0.98 (or 98% of the intervals) and is the sum of observed probabilities for 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 vehicles or 0.34, 0.34, 0.16, 0.09, and 0.05. ities. Compute theoretical Poisson probal ‘Once the actual cumulative probability has been computed, the theoretical values are calculated using the Poisson equation. If the distribution of arrivals is a random one, then the theoretical and observed values should be close. The form of the Poisson equation to be used is as follows: mc" x! Prox) = where m is the average arrival rate, x is the number of vehicles expected to arrive and the constant eis the base for natural logarithms. For the example, the computed probability of exactly two vehicles arriving during an interval is 0.2225, or 22.25%, and is calculated using m = 1.24 vehicles per interval, and x = 2 vehicles. ‘The cumulative Poisson probabilities in the last column are calculated, si ilarly to the cumulative observed probabilities, by adding all values up to, and including, the row of interest. he probability that two or less vehicles will arrive is theoretically 0.2894 plus 0.3588 plus 0.2225 or 0.8707. Compare observed probabilities to Poisson probabilities. ‘The statistically valid method to compare field observations to a theoretical distribution is to apply a Chi-squated test, the application of which is demonstrated here. ‘The question to be answered is whether the collected data indicate that the Poisson equation is a good indicator of how vehicles arrive at the intersec- tion. Also, recognizing the limited amount of data gathered, would it be unreasonable to use a Poisson distribution to forecast future events, such as the change in the capacity of an approach because of a change in green time or to find the length of a turning lane? Comparing cumulative-observed and cumulative-theoretical probabili- ties in the example data summary yields some interesting results. For this example, the values compare favorably, especially at the higher lev- els. The predicted values are within three percent of the observed values. So it appears reasonable to use the Poisson equation to predict arrivals on this approach, However, the Goodness-of-Fit test must be applied before proceeding. Poisson DistributionLocation, Date: Number of Vehicles Time: Poisson Distribution Data Summary Form Observer/s:_. Lane Group: Intersection: Total Vehicles Observed - Probability Cumulative Probability Computed Poisson Cumulative Poisson Col. 1 x2 4= 2/32 xa Poisson Equation z Equation Poisson Distribution 63Poisson Distribution Sample Data Summary Form Location:_SPSU Drive and Hornet Wat Observer/s: Students A and B Date___1/1.2__Time:_4M,___Lane Group:__Thru and Right Lane Northbound. Observed ‘Total Observed .| Cumulative ‘Cumulative Frequency -| Vehicles Probability | Poisson Poisson tet Poisson z Col 1x2 Equation 34; 0 34 34 16 32 9 2F 3 20 a 3 7 é 100 124 m= AAR = 33/52 r(x) = x! Poisson Distribution 65In a nutshell, the Goodness of Fit test identifies significant differences between the expected values and the observed values by computing the statistic Chi-squared, x, and comparing the computed value to the stan- dard x? value. The following equation is used for the computation: ayaa pe yOce Ae where the symbols 0, and ¢; represent the observed and expected frequen- cies, respectively, for the ith cell. The decision criteria should not be used if the expected frequency of a cell is less than five ‘The observed and expected frequencies computed using the Poisson equation are shown below. The Goodness-of-Fit test will be applied to this data to determine if the Poisson distribution properly reflects di behavior on this approach. Computing the x? using the stated equation yields the following: Data Summary : Number of Vehicles | Observed Frequency | Computed Frequency 0 34 28.9 1 34 33.9) | 2 16 22.2 3 9 92 4 5 29 3 1 7 6 i 2 ‘The reader will notice that the values for 3, 4, 5, and 6 vehicles were com- bined because the number of observations in the cells was less than 5. If the Poisson distribution is a good estimator of the arrivals, then the tabu- lar or theoretical Chi-squared will be greater than the computed Chi- squared. In order to identify the proper Chi-squared, the number of degrees of freedom must be found. By definition, the number of degrees of freedom, ¥, in a Chi-square goodness-of-fit test is equal to the number of cells minus the number of quantities obtained from the observed data that are used to calculate the expected frequencies minus 1 66 Poisson DistributionFor this example the average arrival rate was the only quantity obtained from the observed data used to compute the Poisson frequencies. Therefore, the number of degrees of freedom for this example is 5 ~ 2 From the table shown, x93 = 7.815 and 3.424 < 7.815, so it can be con- luded that the Poisson distribution provides a good fit for the distribution of arrival rates. Values for Chi-square v 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 xbos |: 3.841)-| 5.991] 7.815] 9.488 | 11.970 | 12.592 | 14.067 | 15.507 | 16.919 | 18.307 ¥ a |i | 13 “4 15 16 7 13 | 19 20 Nios | 19.675 [21.026 } 22.362 }.23.685 | 24.996 | 26.296 | 27587 | 28.869 | 30.144 | 31.410 » a 22. || 28 24 | 25 26 a7 | 28 | 29 30 Xaes | 32.671 +] 33.924 |- 35.172. ]-36-415 | 37.652 | 38.885 | 40.113 | 41.337 | 42.957 | 43.73 As stated earlier, the above statistics are presented only as a refresher for the investigator, Readers are urged to pursue a rigorous study of statistical analysis as part of their formal transportation engineering education. 5, Calculate maximum arrivals. The next step in the analysis focuses on the application of the Poisson equation to identification of the capacity of a lane group. The values pre- sented will be hypothetical but the reader may wish to refer to the satura- tion flow rate chapter and use values obtained when conducting that investigation. Should a quick determination of an existing approach be desired, then the length of the cycle and the length of green time would be useful. Note that many signal timing procedures exist, and the application , of a Poisson distribution is but one of them, Determining the capacity of an existing lane group, or the minimum green time required, can be accomplished using the Poisson equation. It is used to determing the highest number of vehicles that may be expected to arrive during a signal cycle. Knowing this number, the saturation flow rate and startup delay can be used to compute the minimum green time needed 10 process the traffic. First, however, the analyst must determine how often the signal should be able to process all of the demand. Since it is usually impossible to time a signal to process all levels of traffic all the time, a level of acceptance is cho- sen. For this example, the signal should exhibit sufficient green time to process the traffic for 9 out of 10 cycles. The Poisson equation can be used to calculate the maximum number of vehicles expected to arrive during Poisson Distribution 6768 Poisson 90% of the cycles. So, timing the green-signal time to process this traffic would result in the green time being insufficient only 10% of the time. Calculating the maximum number of vehicles expected to arrive in 9 of 10 cycles is computed using the cumulative Poisson distribution. If the cycle length is 60 seconds and the demand volume is 180 vehicles per hour, then the average arrival rate is (180)(60)/3600 = 3 vehicles per cycle. Calculating the probabilities of exactly 0, 1, 2 .. . vehicles arriving during the 60-second cycle and suinming the values, 5is the maximum number of vehicles expected. The computed probability of having 5, or less, vehicles arriving during a 60-second cycle is 0.916, or 91.6%. Therefore, allocating sufficient green time to process five vehicles should allow the approach to process all of the traffic 91.6% of the time. Calculate mil ‘The minimum green time can be calculated using the saturation flow rate and startup delay for the approach. The chapter on saturation flow rate addresses how these values are acquired. For this example, it may be assumed that the saturation flow rate is 1800 vehicles per hour of green time and the startup delay is 3 seconds. Using these values, the minimum. green time is calculated by the equation 3 + (3600/1800)(X) = G, where X ‘equals the number of vehicles which must be processed and G is the mini- mum green time needed to move the traffic. Substituting X = 5 vehicles, the equation yields a green time of 13 seconds. Calculate the minimum. green time needed for the approach observed during the data collection, assuming a 60 second cycle. lum green Summarize and draw conclusions. ‘The analyst should summarize the findings and draw conclusions from the effort. Questions to be addressed are: + Does the Poisson equation provide a good indication of driver behavior at this intersection? + Can it be used to predict the minimum green time needed? + Should observed frequencies be used for analysis at this location rather than the Poisson theoretical frequencies? * Does this effort indicate that statistical functions are useful in traffic engineering? + Bow can the Poisson equation be used to calculate the minimum length ofa left-turn lane? ‘The reader should note that use of any statistical function requires thor- ough study of statistics. This chapter is only a demonstration of how statis- tical functions, such as the Poisson distribution, can and are very useful in the study of traffic engineering. tributionEquipment . Data Collection Queue Length EEE Ml Assessing the Signalized Intersection V off the roadway. Queue length determination and analysis identifies the characteristics of a waiting line of vehicles or people. It makes use of the Poisson distribution of arrivals along with a negative exponential distribution of service times, The procedure is useful in customer service analyses of drive-in banking and fast-food restaurants; itis also used in predicting toll-booth activity and parking garage utilization. Information such as the average length of wait- ing time, length of a queue, and length of a storage lane can be easily computed. ‘The field portion of this exercise focuses on the data acquisition needed to apply the standard formulae as presented in Garber and Hoel, Traffic and Highway Engineering, and other similar texts. The procedure is limited (o single-channel or single-queue analysis, since it requires little data acquisition to produce mean- ingful results. Procedures exist for multi-channel analysis of two or more drive- in windows, toll booths, or similar service bays that require minimal data acquisition to render useful results. Te chapter addresses a topic that applies to many situations both on and Note-taking materials and a stopwatch are all that is needed. If available, two taaffic counters capable of measuring and recording headways may be used to record arriving and departing vehicles. Videotape is an option. 4. Choose a location to study and a time to collect data. ‘The investigator should choose a fast-food facility or drive-in bank that has only one operating window. Fast-food restaurants that have two successive windows—one used to take money and the next to receive food—are accept- able, As an alternative, the observer may wish to choose a toll booth. If so, the toll booth should be a single booth with only one queue. It is important that the traffic entering and exiting the service line can be easily counted. ‘Two observers may be required if automatic counters are not available. 692. 3. Data Analysis 1 70 Queue Length ‘This observation should take place during a peak period when the service rate (the number of vehicles serviced per hour) is at, or neat, its highest. The service rate to be determined should be the maximum service rate the facility can render—when the arrival rate is at its highest and workers are the most motivated. For some facilities, this may be a significant factor in obtaining data needed to determine the service rate. For others, the service time may be unaffected by the arrival rate and length of queue. The investi- gator should be aware of the possible effect on the data quality. Should peak time for the facility produce queues that fill the available storage area, causing arriving drivers to change their decision to enter the queue and make use of the services, another time should be chosen when the queue is less than, but near, its maximum, Collect data and record values. ‘Two sets of data will be obtained. One should address the service rate of the facility (page 71) and the other the variation in the length of the queue (page 73). Only the service rate data is needed if the investigator does not wish to compare the variation in queue length to the computed values. Service time is the time it takes one vehicle from the queue to be serviced by the facility and depart. For a bank, the service time starts when the vehicle stops at the speaker or window and ends when the vehicle starts to move after using the data collection form on page 71, 50 service times will be collected. Collection of the queue length variations over the course of 60 minutes is obtained by recoiding the queue length at the end of each minute for one hour. Consecutive readings are required over this period, since the variabil- ity in the length of the queue is to be compared to theoretical computed values. The observer starts timing and at the end of each minute observes and records the length of the queue, excluding any vehicle being serviced. Simultaneously, the number of vehicles arriving and entering the queue is recorded at the end of each 5-minute interval, Check and summarize collected data. Collected data should be summarized by computing the average queue length, average service rate, and total arrival rate. A check should be made of entered values and reasonableness of the computations. ‘Summarize field data. Since most values were computed in the field, the computations are rechecked. Next, the queue-length data is reduced, using the data sum- mary form on page 75.Location: Date: Time: Queue Length Service Rate Data Collection Form Observations: Weather: Average Service ‘Time ‘sec. Average Service Volume| Queue Length nQueue Length Data Collection Form Location: Observeris: Date: Time: _Weather: Average queue length = Sum of all queue lengths/60 Total arriving vehicles = Sum recorded values Queue Length 73Date: ‘Queue Length Queue Length Data Summary Form Observations: Time: Weather: * Frequency Cumutative Frequency LL R B 4 15 Total Queue Length 75‘The procedure begins with identifying the number of queues that had vehicles, 1 vehicle, 2 vehicles, and so on, and entering these values in Column 2. The sum of Column 2 should be 60, the number of queues observed. Column 3 is the frequency of that queue length and is computed by dividing Column 2 by the total, 60. Column 4, cumulative frequency, is computed by adding all frequencies, including the time interval. 2. Calculate standard relationships. Using the collected data, a number of standard relationships can be caleu- lated. These can be used to identify and assess the performance character- istics of the facility. Garber and Hoel present eight standard relationships pertaining to single-channel queues, where the queue length is not restricted by the storage length, and the arrival rate and service rate are assumed to be random. The formulae and an example calculation of each are shown below. These use an assumed service rate of 140 vehicles per hour and an assumed arrival rate of 90 vehicles per hour, For each of the calculations, 4 equals the arrival rate in vehicles per hous, and Q equals the service rate in vehicles per hour. a. The probability of exactly units being in the system, where equals, the total number of vehicles—including the unit being served—is: mo ( M8) Therefore, the probability of exactly 2 vehicles in the system is 0.148. i . The expected, or average number of vehicles in the system, E(1t) is: q BO =o ‘Therefore, the average number of vehicles in the system for the example is 1.8. c. The average queue length, E(m), is: pee QAQ-4) and the mean queue length is 1.16 vehicles. Et) 4. The average waiting time in the queue after arrival, E(W), is 2 Q@-4) ‘This calculates to be 0.013 hours or 46.3 seconds. EW) = Queue Length = 77 a78 Queue Length , The average time a vehicle spends in the system including and waiting to be served, B(v), is By) = OT ‘This calculates to be 0.02 hours or 72 seconds. £. The probability of a vehicle spending time, ‘hours, or less in the system is: ela If itis desirable to know how often the total time a vehicle will be in the system less than 50 seconds, then the equation yields 0.36. Priv N= a) This equation can be used to find the length of the storage lane for the queue. If itis desirable to have the storage lane long enough to accommodate 90% of the queues that develop, then Pr( > N) = 0.10 and the equation can be solved for N. For the example rates, it is computed that more than 4 vehicles will be in the queue 10.9% of the time, and more than 5 vehicles will be in the qucue 7% of the time. Based on this, a storage lane long enough to accommo- date 5 vehicles should be sufficient over 90% of the time. ‘Summarize and interpret results. Having computed all of the relationships, the investigator can now exam- ine the results and draw conclusions about the expected operation of the facility, Among additional questions that may be addressed are: + Does the observed average queue length compare favorably to the computed value? If not, is there an indication why? + If itis desirable for the facility to have sufficient storage length for 95% of the expected queues to be accommodated, how many vehicles must be accommodated?* Do the computed values indicate the need for improvements in the operation of the facility, such as the addition of more windows or chan- nels, or changes in the operation to increase the rate of service? + Assuming an arrival rate equal to 90% of the service rate, how mucia of an increase in service time can occur at the facility before the queue length gets too tong for the site? : ‘These and other questions can provide useful input to the decision maker ! responsible for the operation of a business facility. Given the small amount of data collection needed to render significant results, the study of queue length is a cost-effective management tool. The procedure presented here for single-channel analysis is similar to that for multi-channel applications. Queue Length 79Chap Equipment 80 Headway Study. S| Capacity and the Unsignalized Intersec! tant to know the minimum size of the headway in traffic flow that drivers are willing to accept when entering or crossing a traffic stream. The reader is reminded that the length of a headway is measured from the front of one vehicle to the front bumper of the next. Although many methods exist to compute the expected number of headways of a given size in the traffic stream, the traffic engineer usually must assume the minimum headway drivers actually will use. Based on this assumption, there are methods to identify the level of service at an intersection, as well as the capacity of each of its approaches. For example, the 2010 Highway Capacity Manual’s analysis methodology assumes a minimum acceptable headway in the flow of conflicting traffic through an intersection without signals, then computes the level of service and capacity for cach of the movements. Pedestrians preparing to cross the roadway must assess the headways in the conflicting traffic, determine when one of sufficient length exists, and decide if they will cross. Again, there is methodology that allows the investigator to compute the number and size of the headway expected and identifies whether there are sufficient headways to allow safe pedestrian passage. However, all of the computation methods require identification—or an assumption—of the mini- ‘mum headway before calculations can be made. ‘This chapter presents a method for collecting field data to identify the min- imum useable headway. The engineer need not use assumed standardized values in his calculations. As in any traffic engineering analysis, recognition and defini- tion of the differences between the standardized values and the observed values increases the accuracy of the predictive equations. [ the analysis of interstate ramps and unsignalized intersections, it is impor~ Simple videotaping equipment that records in real time will do. If available, intelligent transportation system monitoring stations may be used. If so, the location must meet the procedure’s requirements for the vantage point.Data Collection monitoring. In this exercise, a (PinterSetion) will be used to identify ¢ procedure may be applied to other types of intersections, as 1 well as freeway ramps, curb cuts, and pedestrian crosswalks. The major : roadway should have relatively high volume. It may be multilane but t should not include a two-way, left-turn lane (TWITL) or median. Including i a median or TWETL would require single and multistage movements to be : measured that is beyond the scope of this exercise. The procedure will 7 accommodate a TWLTL, but a two-lane or multilane main roadway will suffice for this exercise. .9 that the frequency and size of vehicle headways on the major roadway are relatively unaffected. \ i i ' i 1. Visit the site, and identify a vantage point for video \ | the ‘A suitable vantage point needs to be chosen for video monitoring—

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