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Stat and Prob Q1 M5

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145 views

Stat and Prob Q1 M5

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Ka Jp Villanueva
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Statistics and SENIOR

HIGH
Probability SCHOOL

SLM
Mean and Variance of Discrete
Random Variable 5
Quarter 1
Statistics and Probability
Quarter 1 – SLM 5: Mean and Variance of Discrete Random Variable
First Edition, 2020

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trademarks, etc.) included in this module are owned by their respective copyright holders.
Every effort has been exerted to locate and seek permission to use these materials from
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ownership over them.

Published by the Department of Education Division of Pasig City

Development Team of the Module


Writer: Maria Geralyn Pale-Federigan
Editors: Nenet M. Peñaranda
Reviewers: Christopher E. Cruz, Ma. Lourdes D. Espino
Illustrator: Name
Layout Artist: Name
Management Team: Ma. Evalou Concepcion A. Agustin
OIC-Schools Division Superintendent
Aurelio G. Alfonso, Ed. D.
OIC-Assistant Schools Division Superintendent
Victor M. Javeña, Ed. D.
Chief - School Governance and Operations Division
OIC – Chief Curriculum Implementation Division
Education Program Supervisors
1. Librada L. Agon, Ed. D., EPP/TLE
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5. Norlyn D. Conde, Ed. D., MAPEH
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8. Perlita M. Ignacio, Ph. D., ESP/SPED
9. Dulce O. Santos, Ed. D., Kinder/MTB
10. Teresita P. Tagulao, Ed. D., Mathematics

Printed in the Philippines by ________________________


Department of Education – Division of Pasig City
Office Address: Caruncho Avenue, San Nicolas, Pasig City
Telefax: 641-88-85/ 628-28-19
E-mail Address: [email protected]
Statistics and SENIOR
HIGH

Probability SCHOOL

SLM

5
Quarter 1

Mean and Variance of


Discrete Random Variable
Introductory Message

For the facilitator:

Welcome to the Statistics and Probability for Senior High School Self Learning
Module on Mean and Variance of Discrete Random Variable!

This module was collaboratively designed, developed and reviewed by educators


from Schools Division Office of Pasig City headed by its Officer-In-Charge Schools
Division Superintendent, Ma. Evalou Concepcion A. Agustin in partnership with
the Local Government of Pasig through its mayor, Honorable Victor Ma. Regis N.
Sotto.
The writers utilized the standards set by the K to 12 Curriculum using the Most
Essential Learning Competencies (MELC) while overcoming their personal, social,
and economic constraints in schooling.

This learning material hopes to engage the learners into guided and independent
learning activities at their own pace and time. Further, this also aims to help
learners acquire the needed 21st century skills especially the 5 Cs namely:
Communication, Collaboration, Creativity, Critical Thinking and Character while
taking into consideration their needs and circumstances.

In addition to the material in the main text, you will also see this box in the body of
the module:

Notes to the Teacher


This contains helpful tips or strategies
that will help you in guiding the learners.

As a facilitator you are expected to orient the learners on how to use this module.
You also need to keep track of the learners' progress while allowing them to
manage their own learning. Moreover, you are expected to encourage and assist the
learners as they do the tasks included in the module.
For the learner:

Welcome to the Statistics and Probability Self Learning Module on Mean and
Variance of Discrete Random Variable!

The hand is one of the most symbolized part of the human body. It is often used to
depict skill, action and purpose. Through our hands we may learn, create and
accomplish. Hence, the hand in this learning resource signifies that you as a
learner is capable and empowered to successfully achieve the relevant
competencies and skills at your own pace and time. Your academic success lies in
your own hands!

This module was designed to provide you with fun and meaningful opportunities
for guided and independent learning at your own pace and time. You will be
enabled to process the contents of the learning material while being an active
learner.

This module has the following parts and corresponding icons:

Expectation - These are what you will be able to know after completing the
lessons in the module

Pre-test - This will measure your prior knowledge and the concepts to be
mastered throughout the lesson.

Recap - This section will measure what learnings and skills that you
understand from the previous lesson.

Lesson- This section will discuss the topic for this module.

Activities - This is a set of activities you will perform.

Wrap Up- This section summarizes the concepts and applications of the
lessons.

Valuing-this part will check the integration of values in the learning


competency.

Post-test - This will measure how much you have learned from the entire
module. Ito po ang parts ng module
EXPECTATION

Lesson 5: Mean and Variance of Discrete Random Variable

Learning Objective:
At the end of the lesson, learners are expected to interpret mean
and variance of discrete random variable.

PRETEST

Directions: Given below is the histogram of a probability distribution of


discrete random variable X. Examine the graph and answer the following.

Histogram
0,3
Probability of X

0,2
P(X)

0,1
0
0 1 2 3 4
Values of X

a. Does the graph represent a probability distribution? Explain your answer.


b. Estimate the mean. Explain your answer.
c. Compute the actual mean.
d. Tell whether the distribution has a small or large variance. Explain your
answer.
e. Compute the actual variance and standard deviation.
RECAP

In the last lesson you have learned how to compute for the mean and
variance of a discrete random variable. Let us recall the steps on how to
compute the mean and variance of a discrete random variable.
To compute for the mean of a discrete random variable:
Step 1. Construct the probability distribution of the discrete random
variable.
Step 2. Multiply the value of the discrete random variable to its
corresponding probability.
Step 3. Get the summation of the products of the squared value of the
random variable and its probability.

𝝁 = ∑[(𝑋) • 𝑃(𝑋)]

To compute for the variance and standard deviation:


Step 1. Find the mean of the discrete random variable.
Step 2. Square each value of the discrete random variable.
Step 3. Multiply the squared value of the discrete random variable to its
corresponding probability, then find the summation of the products.
Step 4. Use the formula to find the variance.

𝜎 2 = ∑ [ 𝑋 2 • 𝑃(𝑋)] − 𝜇 2

Step 5. Find the standard deviation by getting the square root of the
variance.

𝜎 2 = √∑ [ 𝑋 2 • 𝑃(𝑋)] − 𝜇 2

LESSON
Mean is a measure of central tendency (measure of location) than balances
the distribution. To physically interpret that, let us take a look at the
histogram of our previous example.

Histogram
50,00%

37,50%
Probability

25,00%

12,50%

0,00%
0 1 2 3 More
Z- number of persons who tested positive

The histogram above shows the probability distribution when 3 persons are
tested for COVID-19 and Z represents the number of persons who tested
positive. From the graph, the probability that none of the three persons
tested positive is 0.125 or that is 12.5%, the probability that 1 of the 3
tested positive is 0.375 or 37.5%, the probability that 2 tested positive is
0.375 or 37.5% and the probability that all 3 tested positive is 0.125 or
12.5%. Imagine the bars in the graph to be like woods and the horizontal
axis is a seesaw, the seesaw will only be balance at point 1.5, which is the
mean of the distribution. The mean is a value that acts like the middle of
the seesaw so that the left and right side of the distribution will be equal.
Histogram
50,00%

Probability 37,50%

25,00%

12,50%

0,00%
0 1 1.5 2 3 More

mean

Mean of a discrete random variable is also known as the Expected Value.


Events that are repeated many times like tossing a fair coin, rolling a die,
betting in a lotto game and the likes will produce the same average or the
expected average outcome over many observations.

Example 1.

Find the expected outcome when a die is rolled many times.

To find the expected outcome or mean:

Step 1. Construct the probability distribution.

Outcomes 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6

Step 2. Multiply the value of the random variable to its corresponding


probability.
Outcomes 1 2 3 4 5 6
Probability 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
(1)(1/6) (2)(1/6) (3)(1/6) (4)(1/6) (5)(1/6) (6)(1/6)
Product 1/6 2/6 3/6 4/6 5/6 6/6

Step 3. Find the summation of the products of the values of the random
variable and the probabilities.
1 2 3 4 5 6 21
∑[(𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒) • 𝑃(𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒)] = ( ) + ( ) + ( ) + ( ) + ( ) + ( ) = = 3.5
6 6 6 6 6 6 6
When a die is rolled repeatedly the expected outcome is 3.5.

Let us look at the histogram of this event.

Histogram
0,18
0,16
0,14
Probability
0,12
0,1
0,08
0,06
0,04
0,02
0
1 2 3 4 5 6
Outcomes

The distribution is balance at point 3.5 which is the mean or expected value.

Note: 1/6 is approximately equal to 0.166667

Example 2

Gabriel is planning to play an online game where it is possible for him to


lose Php 2,000, break even, win Php 1,000 and win Php 5,000. Find the
expected outcome if he plays and will the odd be at his favor. The probability
distribution for each outcome is given in the table below:

Outcome -2,000 0 1,000 5,000

Probability 0.30 0.400 0.20 0.10

To find the mean, the first step is to construct the probability distribution
which is already given above, we proceed to step 2.

Step 2. Multiply the value of the random variable to its corresponding


probability.

Outcome -2,000 0 1,000 5,000

Probability 0.30 0.400 0.20 0.10


(-2000)(0.30) (0)(0.40) (1000)(0.20) (5000)(0.10)
Product - 600 0 200 500

Step 3. Find the summation of the products of the values of the random
variable and the probabilities.
∑[(𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒) • 𝑃(𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒)] = (−600) + (0) + (200) + (500) = 100

Gabriel is expected to win Php 100 after repeatedly playing the game, the
odds are in his favor.

If mean is a measure of location, variance on the other hand, is a measure of


spread. It is not only important to locate the point where the distribution
will be balanced, we also have to consider if the data in the set are spread
out. Let us consider the examples below, random variable X and Y both have
a mean of 0.

Probability Distribution of X

Values of
X -2 -1 0 1 2
P (X) 1/10 2/10 4/10 2/10 1/10

X * P(X) (-2)(1/10) (-1)(2/10) (0)(4/10) (1)(10) (2)(1/10)


-2/10 -2/10 0 2/10 2/10

2 2 2 2
∑[(𝑋) • 𝑃(𝑋)] = (− ) + (− ) + (0) + ( ) + ( ) = 𝟎 (mean)
10 10 10 10

Probability Distribution of Y

Values of Y -3 3
P (Y) 1/2 1/2
Y * P(Y) (-3)(1/2) (3)(1/2)
-3/2 3/2

3 3
∑[(𝑌) • 𝑃(𝑌)] = (− ) + ( ) = 𝟎 (mean)
2 2

If we are to compare these two distributions base on the mean, we will say
that they do not differ from each other since they have the same mean, but
is that really the case? To answer that question let us examine the
histogram of the two discrete random variables.
Below you can see that the values of X are close to each other and to the
mean, while the values of Y are far apart and are spread out from the mean.
Histogram Histogram
0,5 0,6
PROBABILITY OF X

Probability of Y
0,4 0,5
0,3 0,4
0,3
0,2
0,2
0,1 0,1
0 0
-2 -1 0 1 2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
VALUES OF X Values of Y

Let us get the variance and standard deviation to check if our observation is
correct.

X P(X) X•P(X) X2 X2•P(X)

-2 0.1 -0.2 4 0.4


𝝈𝟐 = ∑[𝑿𝟐 • 𝑷(𝑿)] − 𝝁𝟐
-1 0.2 -0.2 1 0.2
𝝈𝟐 = 1.2 − (0)2
0 0.4 0 0 0 𝝈𝟐 = 𝟏. 𝟐 (variance)
𝝈 = √1.2
1 0.2 0.2 1 0.2
𝝈 = 𝟏. 𝟏 (standard deviation)
2 0.1 0.2 4 0.4

∑[𝑿𝟐 • 𝑷(𝑿)] = (𝟎. 𝟒) + (𝟎. 𝟐) + (𝟎) + (𝟎. 𝟐) + (𝟎. 𝟒) = 𝟏. 𝟐

Y P(Y) Y•P(Y) Y2 Y2•P(Y) 𝝈𝟐 = ∑[𝒀𝟐 • 𝑷(𝒀)] − 𝝁𝟐

𝝈𝟐 = 9 − (0)2
-3 0.5 -1.5 9 4.5
𝝈𝟐 = 𝟗 (variance)
3 0.5 1.5 9 4.5 𝝈 = √9
𝝈 = 𝟑 (standard deviation)
∑[𝒀𝟐 • 𝑷(𝒀)] = (𝟒. 𝟓) + (𝟒. 𝟓) = 𝟗

The variance and standard deviation of random variable X is smaller than


the variance and standard deviation of Y, this means that random variable X
have less variability than Y, and in Statistics the less variability or the less
spread of the data are in the set the better.

Example 3

In a factory, a certain part of a car is being produced, the target number of


parts that should be produced in a day is 100. The quality control officer
checks and records all parts that are produced in a day. The data for a 20-
day production are shown on the table below. Find the average number of
parts produced in 20 days. Did they meet the target number of parts that
should be produced in a day? Determine the variance and standard
deviation and tell if there is a big difference between the average number of
parts produced to the number of parts produced daily in 20 days.

102 100 98 100 101 102 102 100 99 102


98 102 100 100 100 100 100 100 99 101
To find the mean or the expected value:
Step 1. Construct the probability distribution.

Number of Parts Probability


98 2/20
99 2/20
100 9/20
101 2/20
102 5/20

Step 2. Multiply each value of the random variable to its corresponding


probability.
X- Number of Parts Probability P(X) X * P(X)
98 2/20 196/20
99 2/20 198/20
100 9/20 900/20
101 2/20 202/20
102 5/20 510/20

Step 3. Get the summation of the product.


196 198 900 202 510 2006
∑[(𝑋) • 𝑃(𝑋)] = ( )+( )+( )+( )+( )= = 𝟏𝟎𝟎. 𝟑
20 20 20 20 20 20
The average number of parts that they have produced in 20 days is 100.3
parts or at least 101. They have met the target number of parts that
should be produced in a day, since the target number of parts that they
need to produce in a day is only 100 and they were able to produce an
average of 101 parts a day in 20 days.

To find the variance and standard deviation, first we have to find the
mean, which we already computed,100.3.
Step 2. Square each value of the random variable.

X- Number of Probability P(X) X * P(X) X2


Parts
98 2/20 196/20 9604
99 2/20 198/20 9801
100 9/20 900/20 10000
101 2/20 202/20 10201
102 5/20 510/20 10404

Step 3. Multiply the squared value of the random variable to its


corresponding probability then get the summation of the products.

X- Number of
Parts Probability P(X) X • P(X) X2 X2 • P(X)
98 2/20 196/20 9604 19208/20
99 2/20 198/20 9801 19602/20
100 9/20 900/20 10000 90000/20
101 2/20 202/20 10201 20402/20
102 5/20 510/20 10404 52020/20

𝟏𝟗𝟐𝟎𝟖 𝟏𝟗𝟔𝟎𝟐 𝟗𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎 𝟐𝟎𝟒𝟎𝟐 𝟓𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟎 𝟐𝟎𝟏𝟐𝟑𝟐


∑[𝑿𝟐 • 𝑷(𝑿)] = ( )+( )+( )+( )+( )= = 𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟔𝟏. 𝟔
𝟐𝟎 𝟐𝟎 𝟐𝟎 𝟐𝟎 𝟐𝟎 𝟐𝟎

Step 4. Apply the formula in finding the variance:

𝝈𝟐 = ∑[𝑿𝟐 • 𝑷(𝑿)] − 𝝁𝟐
𝝈𝟐 = 10061.6 − (100.3)2
𝝈𝟐 = 10061.6 − 10060.09
𝝈𝟐 = 𝟏. 𝟓𝟏

Step 5. Find the standard deviation by getting the square root of the
variance.
𝝈 = √∑[𝑿𝟐 • 𝑷(𝑿)] − 𝝁𝟐
𝝈 = √1.51
𝝈 = 1.2288
𝝈 = 𝟏. 𝟐𝟑

The variance of the distribution is 1.51 and the standard deviation is 1.23.
The variance and standard deviation are both small numbers which
indicates that the number of parts produced per day in 20 days are less
disperse and that the average which is 100.3 parts do not differ or is very
close from the number of parts produced per day in 20 days.

ACTIVITIES

ACTIVITY 1: PRACTICE

Directions: Examine each histogram, then answer the following questions.


a. Does the graph represent a probability distribution? Explain your answer.
b. Estimate the mean. Explain your answer.
c. Compute the actual mean.
d. Tell whether the distribution has a small or large variance. Explain your
answer
e. Compute the actual variance and standard deviation.

1.

Histogram
0,5
Probability

0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
98 99 100 101 102
X - discrete random variable
2.

Histogram
0,4

Probability of Y
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Values of Y

ACTIVITY 2: Keep Practicing

Directions: Answer the problem below. Show your complete solutions.


The first patient who recovered from COVID-19 virus in the Philippines was
recorded on March 16, 2020. Given in the table below are the number of
recoveries for the whole March of 2020 . Find the mean number of COVID-
19 patients who recovered from the virus. Does the number indicate a good
recovery rate if there were a total of 2084 confirmed cases at the end of the
month? Find the variance and standard deviation, interpret the results.

Date
March 16

March 21

March 22

March 23

March 24

March 25

March 26

March 27

March 28

March 30

March 31

Recorded

Number of
1 4 15 1 2 6 2 3 4 7 7
Recoviries
Data are from Laging Handa website.

WRAP – UP

Mean is a measure of central tendency (measure of location) than balances


the distribution. It is like the point at the middle of the seesaw so that the
left and right side of the distribution are equal.

Mean of a discrete random variable is also known as the Expected Value or


the expected average outcome over many observations.

Variance and Standard Deviation are measures of variability or measures


of spread. It is not only important to locate the point where the distribution
will be balance, because two different random variables may have the same
mean but have different distribution, since one can be less dispersed than
the other. The variance and standard deviation will tell us if the data in a
given set are close to each other and if the data are close to the mean. In
Statistics, the smaller the variance the better.

VALUING

Mean will balance a statistical distribution while Variance is the squared


difference from the mean.

As a student who is now living in the new normal, you should know how to
balance your schedule or time in studying all your different subjects since
you are now more independent and have more freedom when it comes to
doing school works online. Everything now is different from what we used to
do, but we should learn how to adjust to this new normal and let us all
continue to live our lives and pray that this too shall pass.
POSTTEST

I. Directions: Write True if the statement is true and write the correct
statement if the underlined phrase is false.

__________________ 1. If Y is a random variable that represents the number of


cars sold, then to construct the histogram, the values of Y will lie on the x-
axis.
__________________ 2. A small variance means that the distribution is
disperse.
__________________ 3. Mean is a measure of variability.

__________________ 4. If the variance is 4, then the standard deviation is 2.

__________________ 5. If the variance is equal to zero, then all the values of


the random variable are zero.

II. Directions: Read and answer the given problem. Show your complete
solutions.

The data below are the scores of 25 students in a 15-item Statistics quiz.
Construct the probability distribution of the random variable N that
Activity 1
1. a. YES, the graph shows a the results.
probability distribution. The sum of all

7
8
9

12
13
the probabilities is equal to 1.

b. The mean is 100, it is the point


where the distribution will be balance.

13
14
13
12
12

d. The variance is a small number, the


c. 𝜇 = 100 (mean)

values of the random variable are close


to each other.
7

10
14
15
10

and
(standard deviation)
e. 𝝈𝟐 = 𝟏. 𝟐 (variance) 𝝈 = 𝟏. 𝟏
9
9

12
15
11

KEY TO CORRECTION
8
9
7

10
10
the passing score is 12. Find the variance and standard deviation, interpret
represents the score. Find the mean. Does the mean indicate a good result if
Pre-Test
stribution. The sum of all the probabilities is equal to 1.
a. YES the histogram shows a probability
istribution will be balance. distribution. The sum of the probabilities is equal to
1.

es of the random variable are far from the mean other. b. The mean is 2, it is the point where the graph will
be balance.
deviation)
c. ∑[𝑋 • 𝑃 (𝑋)] = (0 • 0.2) + (1 • 0.2) + (2 • 0.2) + (3 •
0.2) + (4 • 0.2) = 2

(X) X2 X2 • P(X)
1 1 2/11 d. Base on the graph the variance is a small number,
𝝁 = 𝟐 (mean)

1 4 8/11 the values of the random variable X are close to each


1 9 9/11 other.
1 16 32/11
1 36 36/11
1 49 98/11
e. 𝝈𝟐 = 𝟐 (variance) and 𝝈 = 𝟏. 𝟒𝟏 (standard deviation)

1 225 225/11
4 3 8 6 14 15 𝟓𝟐
( )+( )+( )+( )+( )+( )= = 𝟒. 𝟕𝟑
11 11 11 11 11 11 𝟏𝟏
21 16 36 40 11 48 39
∑[ 𝑋 • 𝑃(𝑋)] = ( ) + ( ) + ( ) + ( ) + ( ) + ( ) + ( )
25 25 25 25 25 25 25
28 30 𝟐𝟔𝟗
+( )+( )= = 𝟏𝟎. 𝟕𝟔
25 25 𝟐𝟓
𝟏𝟒𝟕 𝟏𝟐𝟖 𝟑𝟐𝟒 𝟒𝟎𝟎 𝟏𝟐𝟏 𝟓𝟕𝟔
∑[𝑿𝟐 • 𝑷(𝑿)] = ( )+( )+( )+( )+( )+( )
𝟐𝟓 𝟐𝟓 𝟐𝟓 𝟐𝟓 𝟐𝟓 𝟐𝟓
𝟓𝟎𝟕 𝟑𝟗𝟐 𝟒𝟓𝟎 𝟑𝟎𝟒𝟓
+( ) +( )+( )= = 𝟏𝟐𝟏. 𝟖
𝟐𝟓 𝟐𝟓 𝟐𝟓 𝟐𝟓

(variance) and
(standard deviation)
𝝁 = 𝟏𝟎. 𝟕𝟔 (mean) 𝝈𝟐 = 𝟔. 𝟎𝟐 𝝈 = 𝟐. 𝟒𝟓

The mean score of the students in the quiz in


Statistics is 10.76. This is not a good result because if the
passing score is 12 (80% of 15), the average 10.76 implies
that most of the students did not pass the quiz.
The variance is 6.02 and the standard deviation is
2.45, the variance indicates that most of the scores vary
or are different from each other and that they are spread
out from the mean. The scores have an average difference
of 2.45 from the mean.
R E F E R E N CE S

R. R. Belecina, E. S. Baccay, E. B. Mateo, Statistics and Probability Rex

Book Store, First Edition, Rex Book Store

Jeremy Orloff and Jonathan Bloom, Variance of Discrete Random Variables,


www-math.mit.edu

Laging Handa, http://www.covid19.gov.ph/mar-covid-19-timeline/

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