ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

University of Southeastern Philippines

COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING
Obrero, Davao City

MATH 212
ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

DALIA M. RECONALLA, Ph.D

August 2020

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Faculty Information:

Name: Dalia M. Reconalla

Email: [email protected]
Contact Number: 0906-209-6611
Office: College of Engineering
Contact Number: (082) 224-3334
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TABLE OF CONTENTS

CONTENTS PAGE

Cover page ………………………………… 1

Faculty Information ……………………………….... 2

Table of Contents ………………………………… 3

Lesson 2 ………………………………………. 4

Application 2…………………………………………. 12

References …………………………………………. 15

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Learning Outcome:
o Apply the fundamentals of probability to determine the probability of a
discreet random variable.

Time Frame: 2 hours

Introduction:
Discrete random variables are used in many practical applications. The three
important discreet random variables—the binomial, the Poisson, and the
hypergeometric and their usefulness in different physical situations are presented in this
lesson. These random variables are often used to describe the number of occurrences
of a specified event in a fixed number of trials or a fixed unit of time or space.

Abstraction:
1. Basic Concept: Probability Distribution
A probability distribution may be defined as a distribution showing the
different values of a random variable with their corresponding probabilities.
Generally, when it is not advisable to list all the possible values of the random
variable because the process is too cumbersome, a mathematical function is used to
characterize or generalize the correspondence involved. This correspondence which
assigns probabilities to the values of the random variable is referred to as a
probability function.
For a random variable X, the probability that it takes on x as value is denoted
by either
f(x) or P(X = x)
Thus if we toss a coin three times and denote the number of heads that fall as
X, then we have:
f(0) = P(X = 0) = 1/8
f(1) = P(X = 1) = 3/8
f(2) = P(X = 2) 3/8
f(3) = P(X = 1) = 1/8
In an experiment of tossing a die, if we denote the number that occurs by X,
the probability function may be written as:
f(x) = 1/6, x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

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This means that P(X = 1) = 1/6, P(X = 2) = 1/6, …, P(X = 6) = 1/6

It must be noted that the sum of the probabilities of all values of a random variable is
always equal to 1.
Example 1. Consider an experiment where a ball is drawn at random from a box
containing 6 red, 4 blue, 3 green and 2 yellow balls. Let a random variable X take on
the value:
• 0 if the ball drawn is red;
• 1 if it is blue; and
• 2 if it is either green or yellow.
Solution: Construct a Probability Table indicating the Outcome, Probability of
the Outcome, Value of the Random Variable X and the Probability of the value of
the random Variable
Table 1. Values of the Random Variable X and their Probabilities

Outcome Probability Value of the Prob. Of the Value of

of Outcome Random the Random Variable
Variable P(X = x)
X
Red 6/15 0 P(X = 0) = 2/5

Blue 4/15 1 P(X = 1) = 4/15

Green 3/15 2 P(X = 2) = 3/15

Yellow 2/15 2 3+2=5

or Green P(X= 2) = 5/15 or 3/5
TOTAL= 15/15 = 1

Probability distribution are generally classified into two according to the

nature of the random variable involved.
Those which are defined by discrete random variables are called discrete
probability distribution and the most commonly used types under this major
classification are the binomial, hypergeometric, and Poisson distributions.
Probability distribution which involve continuous random variables are
known as continuous probability distribution, the most remarkable of which is the
normal distribution.

2.2 Uniform Distribution

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The simplest of all discrete probability distributions. It is one where the

random variable assume each of its values with an equal probability. Such a
probability distribution is called a discrete uniform probability distribution.

If the random variable X assumes the values , with equal probabilities,

then the discrete uniform distribution is given by

f(x, k) = , x = 1, 2, 3, . . . , n

Example 2: An employee is selected from a staff of fifteen(15) to supervise a certain

project by selecting a tag at random from a box containing 15 tags numbered from 1
to 15. Find the formula for the probability distribution of X representing the number
on the tag that is drawn. What is the probability that the number drawn is less than 6?
Solution:
Given: k = 15

f(x, 15) = , x = 1, 2, 3, . . . , 15

P(x < 6) = + + + + = =

2.3 The Binomial Probability Distribution

Most often an experiment consists of repeated trials, each with two possible
outcomes that may be defined as a success or a failure. This referred to as the
Bernoulli process and each trial is called a Bernoulli trial.
The number, x, of successes in n Bernoulli trials is called a binomial random
variable that has a probability distribution called the binomial distribution.
A coin-tossing experiment is a simple example of an important discrete random
variable called the binomial random variable.

Definition 2.1 A binomial experiment is one that has these five

characteristics:
1. The experiment consists of n identical trials.
2. Each trial results in one of two outcomes. The one outcome is called
success, S and the other a failure, F.
3. The probability of success on a single trial is equal to p and remains the
same from trial to trial. The probability of failure, q is equal to ( 1- p) = q.
4. The trials are independent.
5. We are interested in x, the number of successes observed during the n trials,
for x = 0, 1, 2, ,3, …,n..

A binomial experiment consists of n, identical trials with probability of

success p on each trial. The probability of k successes in n trials is

P(x = k) = b(k; n, p) = Cnk pk qn – k = ( )

pk qn – k
where: n is a positive integer,
q = probability of failure = 1 - p

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k = 0, 1, 2, ..., n.
The random variable x, the number of successes in n trials, has a probability
distribution with this center and spread:
Mean : μ = np
Variance : σ2 = npq
Standard deviation: σ = √

Example 3: Over a long period of time it has observed that a given rifleman can hit a
target on a single trial with probability of 0.8. Suppose he fires four shots at the
target.1) What is the probability that he will hit the target exactly two times? 2) What
is the probability that he will hit the target at least once?

Solution: A ―trial‖ is a single shot at the target, and you can define a ―success‖ as a
hit and a ―failure‖ as a miss, so that n = 4 and p = 0.8. If you assume that the
rifleman’s chance of hitting the target does not change from shot to shot, then the
number x of times he hits the target is a binomial random variable.
Let:
A ―trial‖ is a single shot at the target, ―success‖ as a hit ; ―failure‖ as a miss,
n = 4 and p = 0.8.
If you assume that the rifleman’s chance of hitting the target does not change
from shot to shot, then the number x of times he hits the target is a binomial random
variable.

P(x = 2)
• p(2) = C42 (0.8)2 (0.2)4 – 2 = 0.1536 the probability that he will hit the target
exactly two time.
• P(at least 1) = P(x ≥ 1) = p(1) + p(2) + p(3) + p(x=4)
= 1 – p(0)
= 1 – C40 (0.8)0 (0.2)4 = 0.9984

Example 4: Given that 6 fair coins are flipped once, what is the probability of getting
a) exactly 6 heads?
b) 4, 5, or 6 heads?
c) less than 2 heads?

Solution: Let H be the event of getting head, P(H)

a) p = 0.5, q = 1 – 0.5 = 0.5, n = 6; k = 6

P(H) =f(x) = b(k; n, p) = ( )

pk qn – k . Thus,
P(H) = b(6; 6, 0.5) = ( )
= 0.015625

b) ∑ where k = 4, 5, 6
P (4 x ) = 6 C4 + 6C5
+ 6 C6
= 0.3438
c) ∑ where k = 0, 1
p(0 x ) = 6 C0 + 6 C1
= 0.1094

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2.3.1 Multinomial Distribution

If we let each trial to have more than 2 possible outcomes, then the binomial
experiment becomes a multinomial experiment. An example is the drawing of a card
from a deck with replacement if one is interested in the four suits as outcomes.

In general, if a given trial can result in any one of k possible outcomes

with probabilities then the multinomial distribution
will give the probability that occurs times; occurs times; . . . , and
occurs times in n independent trials, where + = n.

We denote this joint probability distribution by

f( , . . ., ; , n) = p1x1 p2x2 .. . pkxk

∑ and ∑ =1

Example 5: The probabilities that a delegate to a convention arrived by air, ferry, bus,
or taxi are 0.5, 0.2, 0.2, and 0. 1, respectively. What is the probability that among the
ten delegates randomly selected at this convention, 4 arrived by air, 3 arrived by ferry,
2 arrived by bus and 1 arrived by taxi.

Solution:
f( 0.5, 0.2, 0.2, 0.1, 10) =
= = 0.0252

2.3.2 Negative Binomial Distribution

Recall that in the binomial experiment the random variable X represents the
number of successes obtained in a series of n independent and identical Bernoulli
trials; the number of trial is fixed and the number of successes will vary from
experiment to experiment.
The negative binomial random variable represents the number of trials needed
to obtain exactly k successes.; here, the number of successes is fixed and the number
of trials will vary from experiment to experiment.

Properties of experiment involving the Negative Binomial random

variable are:
a) The experiments consists of a series of independent and identical
Bernoulli trials, each with probability p of success;
b) The trials are observed until exactly k successes are obtained, where k
is fixed by the experimenter;
c) The random variable X is the number of trials needed to obtain the k
successes.

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A random variable X, the number of trials to produce k successes, is said to

have a negative binomial distribution with probability of success p if its probability
distribution is given by
f(x) = b*(x; k, p) = ( )
where k = 1, 2, 3,. . . and x = k, k+1, k+2, . . . and let q = 1 – p.

Let X be a negative binomial random variable with parameters k and p.

Mean = E(X) =
Variance (X) = =
Example 6. A particular production process is claimed to be 90% effective, that is the
material produced can be shaped as desired in a later processing stage with a
probability of 0.9. What is the probability that exactly 15 boxes will be produced in
order to obtain the third defective box?

Solution:
Let ―success‖ – obtaining a defective box
p = 0.1, k = 3
The probability that x = 15 is given by
f(15) = = 0.0257

2.4 Geometric Distribution

Properties of experiment involving the Geometric random variable are:

a) The experiment consists of a series of n Bernoulli trials. The outcome
of each trial can be identified as being either a ―success‖ or a ―failure‖;
b) The trials are identified and independent so the probability of success,
p, remains the same from trial to trial;
c) The number of trials needed to obtain the first success is denoted by
the random variable x.

Note that if we consider the special case of the negative binomial distribution
for which k = 1, the negative binomial reduces to the form
f(x) = b*(x; 1, p) =

This constitutes a geometric progression, thus this special case is referred to as

the geometric distribution. So, whenever k = 1
f(x) = b*(x; 1, p) =
where x = 1, 2, 3,…

A random variable x is said to have a geometric distribution with probability

of success p it its probability distribution is given by

f(x) = g(x; p) =
where q = 1 – p; 0 , p , 1; x = 1, 2, 3,. . .
The mean of a geometric random variable is

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Example 7. From Example 6, particular production process is claimed to be 90%

effective, that is the material produced can be shaped as desired in a later processing
stage with a probability of 0.9. If it is known that on the average, 1 in every ten box
is defective, what is the probability that the third box inspected is the first
defective item found?

Solution.
x = 3 , p = 0.1
g(3; 0.1) =

2.5. The Hypergeometric Probability Distribution

In binomial distribution, sampling is done with replacement such that it

guarantees that the draws are independent. Thus if we sample without replacement,
the random variable X, the number of successes in n draws, is no longer binomial.
Rather, it follows a distribution known as the hypergeometric distribution.

Properties of experiment involving the Hypergeometric Probability

Distribution

a) A random sample of size n is drawn without replacement and

without regard to order from a collection of N objects; and
b) Of the N objects, k may be classified as successes and the other N –
k as failures.

A random variable X has a hypergeometric distribution if its probability distribution

is given by
* +[ ]
f(x) = h(x; N, n, k) =
[ ]

The Expected Mean, E(X) = n ( )

Variance , Var(X) = n ( ) ( )( )

Example 8: Thirteen cards are drawn from a deck of ordinary playing cards. Find the
probability of selecting 8 red cards and 5 black cards.

Solution:
N = 52; n = 13; x = 8;
N – k = 26; n – x = 13- 8 = 5

* +[ ]
f(x) = h(x; N, n, k) =
[ ]

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* +* +
f(x) = h(8; 52, 13, 26) = = 0.1618
* +
Example 9: A company ships his products in boxes of size 20. Since no
manufacturing process is perfect, defective items are inevitable. The buyer, before
accepting a box, selected and tested three items. Suppose that a given box actually
contains five defective items sampled.
a. Find the probability distribution function of the hypergeometric random
variable X.
b. What is the probability that exactly 2 defective are found in the sample?
c. Find the expected number of defective items in the sample.
d. Find the variance for the random variable X.

Solution:
a) The probability distribution function for X:
* +[ ]
f(x) = h(x; N, n, k) =
* +
where x = 0, 1, 2, 3

b) If x = 2, then
f(2) = h(x; N, n, k)
= h(2; 20, 3, 5)
= = 0.1316
c) The expected number of defective items in a sample of size 3 is
E(X) = = =
d) The variance for X, Var(X) = 3 ( ) ( ) ( ) =

2.6. Poisson Distribution

Another discrete random variable that has numerous practical applications is

the Poisson random variable. Its probability distribution provides a good model for
data that represents the number of occurrences of a specified event in a given unit of
time or space.

Poisson random variables usually arise in connection with what are called
Poisson Processes. Such process is named after the French mathematician Simeon
Denis Poisson (1871-1840).

Examples of experiments for which the random variable x can be modeled by the
Poisson random variable.

• The number of bacteria present in a unit volume of fluid

• The number of customer arrivals at a checkout counter during a given time
• The number of machine breakdown during a given day
• The number of traffic accidents at a given stretch of highway during a given
period

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In each example, let x represents the number of events that occur in a period of
time or space during which an average of μ such events can be expected to occur.

Let μ be the average number of times that an event occurs in a certain period of time
or space. The probability of k occurrence of this event is

P(x = k) = , e = 2.71828… , for values of k = 0, 1, 2, 3, ....

The mean and standard deviation of the Poisson random variable x are

Mean: μ
Standard deviation: σ = √

Example 10: The average number of traffic accidents on a certain an intersection of

highway is two per week. Assume that the number of accidents follows a Poisson
distribution with μ= 2.
a) Find the probability of no accidents on this section of highway during a 1-week
period.
b) Find the probability of at most three accidents on this section of highway during a
2-week period.

Solution:

Assume that the number of accidents follows a Poisson distribution with

μ= 2(average number of accidents per week)

a) Let P(x= 0) be the probability of no accidents on this intersection of highway

during a given week
P(x = 0) = p(0)= = = 0.135335

b) During a 2-week period, μ= 2(2).= 4

Let P(x ≤ 3) be the probability of at most three accidents during a 2-week
period
P(x ≤ 3) = p(0) + p(1)+ p(2) + p(3)
= + + +
= 0.433

Application: Exercise #2
Solve the following problems.
1. Let x be a binomial random variable with n = 7, p= 0.3. Find these values:
a) P(x = 4) b) P(x 1) c) P(x > 1

d) μ = np e) σ = √

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2. A long period of time, it has been observed that a professional basketball

player can make a free throw on a given trial with probability equal to 0.75.
Suppose he shoots five free throws.
a. What is the probability that he will make exactly three free throws?
b. What is the probability that he will make at least one free throw?
3. Of all the Harry Potter books purchased in a recent year, about 60% were
purchased for readers 14 or older.2 If 12 Harry Potter fans who
bought books that year are surveyed and if p .6, find the following
probabilities:

Source: Mendenhall, Beaver, & Bevear

Intro. to Probability and Statistics, 2009

a. At least five of them are 14 or older.

b. Exactly nine of them are 14 or older.
c. Less than three of them are 14 or older.

4. A research focused on the number of illnesses involving the organism

Escherichia coli (01257:H7), which causes a breakdown of red blood cells and
intestinal hemorrhages in its victims. According to the Center for Disease
Control of the Department of Health, an estimated 73,000 cases of E. coli
infection and 61 deaths occur in Region X. A 2028 outbreak traced to wild
pigs, who spread the bacteria into a cabbage field in that , sickened 204 people
in 26 municipalities. Outbreaks have occurred at a rate of 2.5 per 100,000. Let
us suppose that this rate has not changed.

a. What is the probability that at most five cases of E.coli per 100,000 are
reported in California this year?
b. What is the probability that more than five cases of E. coli are reported in
California this year?
c. Approximately 95% of occurrences of E. coli involve at most how many
cases?

5. A case of wine has 12 bottles, 3 of which contain spoiled wine. A sample of 4

bottles is randomly selected from the case.
a. Find the probability distribution for x, the number of bottles of spoiled wine
in the sample.
b. What are the mean and variance of x?

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6. A particular industrial product is shipped in lots of 20. Testing to determine

whether an item is defective is costly; hence, the manufacturer samples
production rather than using a 100% inspection plan. A sampling plan
constructed to minimize the number of defectives shipped to customers calls
for sampling five items from each lot and rejecting the lot if more than one
defective is observed. (If the lot is rejected, each item in the lot is then tested.)
If a lot contains four defectives, what is the probability that it will be
accepted?

Closure
Congratulations! You have successfully completed the tasks and activities for
Lesson 2. It is expected that you have gained insights about discreet probability
distribution.
Now if you are ready, please proceed to Lesson 3 of this module which will
introduce you to another probability distribution, the continuous probability
distribution.

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References

Broto, A.S. (2007). Simplified Approach to Inferential Statistics(1st ed.). National .

Philippines.

Carambas, Zenaida U(2011). Basic probability and Statistics. Valencia Educational

Supply. Baguio City

Peck, R., Olsen, C. and Devore, J.L. (2012): Introduction to Statistics and Data
Analysis(4th edition). Brooks/Cole/Cengage Learning, 20 Channel
Center Street Boston, MA 02210, USA

Ott, R.L., Longnecker, M. (2010). An Introduction to Statistical Methods and Data

Amalysis(6th ed). Brooks/Cole, Cengage Learning, CA, USA.

Raussas, George(2003). Introduction to Probability and Statistical Inference.

Elseviere Science, USA

Walpole, RE, & Myers, RH.(1993). Probability and Statistics for Engineers and (5th
ed.). Macmillan Publishing Company, New York.

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