Discrete Probability Distributions

Maria Zefanya Sampe

Short Semester 2020 – Business Mathematics
 Probability Distribution
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

A listing of all the outcomes of an experiment and

the probability associated with each outcome.

CHARACTERISTICS OF A PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

1. The probability of a particular outcome is between 0 and 1

inclusive.
2. The outcomes are mutually exclusive.
3. The list of outcomes is exhaustive.
So the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes is equal to 1.
Example 1
Suppose we are interested in the number of heads showing
face up on three tosses of a coin. This is the experiment.
The possible results are zero heads, one head, two heads,
and three heads.
What is the probability distribution for the number of
heads?
Random Variables
RANDOM VARIABLES

A variable measured or observed as the result of an

experiment. By chance, the variable can have different values.

EXAMPLES OF RANDOM VARIABLES

1. The number of employees absent from the day shift on

Monday, the number might be 0, 1, 2, 3, . . .
The number absent is the random variable.
2. The hourly wage of a sample of 50 plumbers in
Jacksonville, FL. The hourly wage is the random variable.
3. The number of defective lightbulbs produced in an hour at
the Cleveland Electric Company, Inc..
Discrete Random Variables
A random variable that can assume only certain clearly separated values.
Example : The number of cards carried is the discrete random variable

Continuous Random Variables

Continuous random variable can assume an infinite number of values
within a given range. It is measured on a continuous interval or ratio scale.
Example :
1. The times of commercial flights between Atlanta and Los Angeles are 4.67 hours, 5.13 hours, and so on.
The random variable is the time in hours and is measured on a continuous scale of time.
2. The annual snowfall in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The random variable is the amount of snow, measured
on a continuous scale.
The Mean, Variance, And Standard Deviation
Of A Discrete Probability Distribution
MEAN

• The mean of a probability distribution is also referred to

as its expected value.
• It is a weighted average where the possible values of a
random variable are weighted by their corresponding
probabilities of occurrence.

FORMULA
The Mean, Variance, And Standard Deviation
Of A Discrete Probability Distribution
VARIANCE AND STANDARD DEVIATION

• The variance describe the amount of spread (variation) in a distribution

The computational steps are:
1. Subtract the mean from each value of the random variable, and square this difference.
2. Multiply each squared difference by its probability.
3. Sum the resulting products to arrive at the variance.
The standard deviation, 𝝈 is found by taking the positive square root of 𝝈𝟐 ;
that is, 𝝈 = 𝝈𝟐

FORMULA
 Solutions:
Example 2 1. This is a discrete probability distribution for the random
variable called “number of cars sold.”
John Ragsdale sells new cars for Pelican Ford.
John usually sells the largest number of cars 2. The mean number of cars sold is computed by weighting
on Saturday. the number of cars sold by the probability of selling that
He has developed the following probability number and adding or summing the products
distribution for the number of cars he expects
to sell on a particular Saturday.

3. The following table illustrates the steps to calculate the

variance using formula

FORMULA
1. What type of distribution is this?
2. On a typical Saturday, how many cars does
John expect to sell?
3. What is the variance of the distribution?
 Binomial Probability Distribution
BINOMIAL PROBABILITY EXPERIMENT
1. An outcome on each trial of an experiment is classified into
one of two mutually exclusive categories a success or a failure.
2. The random variable is the number of successes in a fixed
number of trials.
3. The probability of success is the same for each trial.
4. The trials are independent, meaning that the outcome of one
trial does not affect the outcome of any other trial.
FORMULA

where:
C denotes a combination.
n is the number of trials.
x is the random variable defined as the number of successes.
We use the Greek letter π (pi) to denote a binomial population parameter.
π is the probability of a success on each trial.
 Mean And Variance Of
Binomial Distribution
The mean (𝝁) and the variance (𝝈𝟐 ) of a binomial distribution are

MEAN VARIANCE
Example 3
There are five flights daily from Pittsburgh via American Airlines into the Bradford Regional Airport
in Bradford, Pennsylvania. Suppose the probability that any flight arrives late is 0.20
• What is the probability that none of the flights are late today?
• What is the probability that exactly one of the flights is late today?
• What is the mean and variance of this binomial distribution?

Solutions:

π = 0.20. There are five flights, so n = 5,

X = the random variable for the number of successes.
In this case, a “success” is a flight that arrives late.

The probability for no late arrivals, x = 0

The probability that exactly one of the five flights will arrive late today
For the example regarding the number of late flights, recall that π = .20 and n = 5.
Binomial Probability Tables
Binomial Probabilities for n = 6 and Selected Values of π
Binomial Probability Tables
In the Southwest, 5% of all cell phone calls are dropped.

• What is the probability that out of six randomly selected calls, none was dropped?
• Exactly one?
• Exactly two?
• Exactly three?
• Exactly four?
• Exactly five?
• Exactly six out of six?
 Hypergeometric Probability Distribution
HYPERGEOMETRIC PROBABILITY EXPERIMENT
1. An outcome on each trial of an experiment is classified into one of two
mutually exclusive categories—a success or a failure.
2. The random variable is the number of successes in a fixed number of trials.
3. The trials are not independent.
4. We assume that we sample from a finite population without replacement
and
5. n/N > 0.05. So, the probability of a success changes for each trial.

FORMULA

where:
N is the size of the population.
S is the number of successes in the population.
x is the number of successes in the sample. It may be 0, 1, 2, 3, . . . .
n is the size of the sample or the number of trials.
C is the symbol for a combination.
 Mean And Variance Of
Hypergeometric Distribution
The mean (𝝁) and the variance (𝝈𝟐 ) of a hypergeometric distribution are

MEAN VARIANCE

𝑆 𝑛𝑆 𝑁 − 𝑆 (𝑁 − 𝑛)
𝑛
𝑁 𝑁 2 (𝑁 − 1)
Example 4
PlayTime Toys Inc. employs 50 people in the Assembly Department. Forty of the employees belong to a
union and 10 do not. Five employees are selected at random to form a committee to meet with management
regarding shift starting times.
What is the probability that four of the five selected for the committee belong to a union?

Solutions:

The hypergeometric distribution is appropriate for determining the probability. In this problem,
N is 50, the number of employees.
S is 40, the number of union employees.
x is 4, the number of union employees selected.
n is 5, the number of employees selected.

The probability 4 of the 5 committee members belong to a union.

 The hypergeometric probabilities of finding 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 union members on the committee.

Hypergeometric Probabilities
(n = 5, N = 50, and S = 40)
for the Number of
Union Members on the Committee

Comparison of the results using the binomial distribution and the

hypergeometric distribution. Because 40 of the 50 Assembly Department
employees belong to the union, we let π = 0.80 for the binomial distribution.
The binomial probabilities for table come from the binomial distribution with
n = 5 and 𝜋 = 0.80.
 Poisson Probability Distribution
POISSON PROBABILITY EXPERIMENT
1. The random variable is the number of times some event occurs
during a defined interval.
2. The probability of the event is proportional to the size of the
interval.
3. The intervals do not overlap and are independent.

FORMULA

where:
μ (mu) is the mean number of occurrences (successes) in a particular interval.
e is the constant 2.71828 (base of the Napierian logarithmic system).
x is the number of occurrences (successes).
P(x) is the probability for a specified value of x.
 Mean And Variance Of
Poisson Distribution
The mean (𝝁) and the variance (𝝈𝟐 ) of a poisson distribution are

MEAN VARIANCE
Example 5
Budget Airlines is a seasonal airline that operates flights from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, to various cities in
the northeast. The destinations include Boston, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, and both LaGuardia and JFK airports in
New York City. Recently Budget has been concerned about the number of lost bags. Ann Poston from the
Analytics Department was asked to study the issue. She randomly selected a sample of 500 flights and found
that a total of twenty bags were lost on the sampled flights.

Show that this situation follows the Poisson distribution.

• What is the mean number of bags lost per flight?

• What is the likelihood that no bags are lost on a flight?
• What is the probability at least one bag is lost?

Solutions:

Based on the sample information we can estimate the mean number of bags lost per flight. There were 20
bags lost in 500 flights so the mean number of bags lost per flight is .04, found by 20/500. Hence μ = .04.
In this case x, the number of lost bags is 0. The probability of one or more lost bags is:
The probability of exactly one lost bag is: