Cosm Unit 1
Cosm Unit 1
v .; o,--. ------;.-'.--.:r---- - - - - - - - -- - -
1 100 _70 = 0.7
Now P(_E ) = J _ 0.6 == 0.4 and P(E~
1~.) = 1()0
1
..._ By Baye "s theorem.
P(E1 ).P(E2 E1)
0.6 X 0.4 6
-------=-
0.6x0.4+0.4x0.7 13
I ,.1n1pll' _l : A bag A contains 2 white and 3 red balls and a bag B contains 4
5 red balls. One ball is drawn at random from one of the bags and it is found to be reel
the probability that the red ball drawn is fron1 bag B. (JNTU (A) Nov. lilt (Sd
Sofadop: Let A and B denote the events of selecting bag A and bag B resnecUVl=-t
.
I I
Theo P(A) = 2, P(_B) = 2.
Let R denote the event of cnwing • red ball.
•
- - of Probability
Having selected bag A, the probability to draw a red ball from A= P(R I A) == ~
Similarly, P(R I A) = !
9
One of the bags is selected at random and from it a ball is drawn at random.
It is found to be red. Then the probability that the se\ected bag is B
P(B).P(RI B)
=P(BI R)= P(A).P(RI A)+P(B)P(RI B)
1 5
-2 • -9
- l 3 1 5
-.-+ •
2 S 2 9
25
--
52
I ,~1111pk J :
The prohability clcnsi1y / (.t} ot a contmuou~ wndom vnrMhlc l!i &t
.f _(x). = c l' 1'1, - oo < x < oo , Show thal c 112 un<l l1nd the mean nnd vurlilllce
distnbu110n. Also find the prolrnhilily 1h,1I 1hc w• iul~ !i~N between Ound 4,
IJNTU Jun. 2007, (A) Nov. 20 Ill (Set No. 2), (I<) May 20 n (!It!\
We hnve J.f(x) dx = I
00
rsincc the toWI prohabililY is unityJ
-oo
co
i.e., f c e-lxldr = I - 00
-00
00
1
Hence f (x) = c e-!xl == - e- lxl
2
00
=
I
f xe-lxldx = 0, since integrand is odd.
oo
2 -"I:;
= (0 - (- 2)] = 2
De probability between O and 4 = P(O < X < 4)
4 4
= 1 Je-I·xi dx = re- X dx
1 J l·: in O< x < 4, \x\ = x1
2 0 2 0
l
= (1 - e- 4) == 0.4908 (nearly)
2
Probability density function of a random variable Xis
l . c.
-sin x, 1or O< x < 1t
· ,-----,,--- 5 5 5 I •
~'Likelihoods''
(iil Tht.' ProbahiJity that India will win at least one test match
27 98 exPerirnent.
=1- Probability thnt India wiJl win none of the test matches = 1- 125 =125
(iii) The ProhnbiJity that India will win at most one match
= The Probability that India wiIJ w1n one match or no matches
I U
The girls cons·
= P(U' ) . PUV) . P(W) + P(W) . P(W) . P(W) being studied '
2 3 3 3 3 3 45 9 find the proba,
- - .-.-+-. - . - = - = -
5 5 5 5 5 5 125 25
Solution
1.22 BAYE'S THEOREM [JNTU 2007S, 2008, (A), (H) Dec. 2009, (A) Nov. 2010 (Set No. 4))
£ 1 .E:y_,··. ,E,, are n mutually exclusive and exhaustive events such tha
P(E,) > 0 (i = 1, 2, ...... , n) in a sample space Sand A is any other event in S intersecting wit
eveiy E, (i.e., A can only occur in combination with any one of the events E" E , •••• ,E.) sue
that P(A.) > 0. 2 Probab
If E, is any of the events of E,, E2, ••••• ,E. where P(E,), P(E), .... ,P(E.) and P(A I £,) Probabi
P(A, E1 ) , ••.• ,P(A I E,,) are known, then
Proof: EP E2,····,En are n events of S such that P(E) > 0 and E1 n E1 = <\> for i j where *
s:: 1, 2, ..... , 11 • Also El' E 2,. ••• ,En are exhaustive events of Sand A is any other event of S
P(A) > 0.
S= E 1uE.,u
...
.... uEn and
A= Ans = An(E 1U E2u ...... uE)
Note : Baye's theorem is also known as formula for the Probability of "Causes", i.
hility of a particular (cause) E.l given that event A has happened {already).
SOLV'ED EXAMPl_,ES
I ,~11npk I : In a certain college, 25% of boys and I 0% of girls are studying mathematics.
girls constitute 60% of the student body. (a) What is the probability that mathematics is
· g studied? (b) If a student is selected at random and is found to be studying mathematics,
the probability that the student is a girl? (c) a boy ? (JNTU 2004 (Set No. 2))
. 40 2
Solution: G 1ven P {Boy) = P(B) = - = -
100 5
60 3
and P (Girl) = P(G) = - =-
100 5
25
Probability that mathematics is studied given that the student is a boy = P(M I B) =
100
= 4l
32
3 1
P(G)P(M/G) _5·10 _ i
P(M) - _i_ 8
25
(c) Probability of maths student is a boy= P(B IM)
2 1
P(B) P(M I B) - .-
-
P(M) - 5 4
4
- -5
-
25
8
I· \ ~ll II p It 2 :
The chance that doctor A will diagnose a disease x correctly is
chance that a patient will die by his treatment after correct diagnosis is 40% and the
death by wrong diagnosis is 70%. A patient of doctor A, who had disease
chance that his disease was diagnised cone
/ 1( /11 /VI} , -, i"f--,
0 0~ )". 0 ~ 0.95
, n,1~)
1 1 t q,- ,,oi',,
-
In 111J11l1 111, 1w y 1J1.id1111tl·. A, II,<. mr1n11f uc.:Wrc 20%, 3(1°/(, ttnd 5
I· , uunh· ,, :
101 ,1 ol 1h, 11 V½, 111111 '>'¾, n, i: dcf!.:1;1, v,•. A holf 1 , Jrnwn at random •
n11lp1 ,, 1111d 11" ,,,
ht ,1, h I ll\1 11111I 1h, p,oh11li1l111u, 1hal ,1 i,, mu1111lud111cd from(/) Mnchmc A (II)
(///1 Mod111H I f,Ji\1'1I120117 (l'M No, 4). ( A) Apr. %Oil (
~
11
btJl11n : I t1 /'( 11), /'(//), I'll') lw llw p,ohub1J1J14;r, of llw cv1 ntN th1tl the
111 ullil,lt l11tt d h;y ll1L lllfh lrHH .) A, II, (' H;'JJlt • IJV Jy J ht Jl
/'I l O I 10 \ fill I
, I Of ~ • I '{/ I ) J ) , / ;( ( r)
1 I oo 1 I 00 2
'.' ') dt ,1oi, 111111 th( 1,.,1, u dt h < 11w# 'I J1, n
t, )
I ; f I )/ I) /' )
l'{I I
1, "1,1 • {11/ /IJ I 00 ' ' ' ')
(/) 11 111111 I JOO
ti," l IIVt ' Jh, n flu p,,.1,11h1h1v 1Jm1 Jt J
J
f
,0111 '" H huu A l 1 (A I /J)
1
/'(x) =- QOI I,
2
tobemu-.
.
. ! ]Sil I rI
.. J
J+ :+,_._ J
14
Probabi\ity and Stati~
R
. I 1 1
eg. 1: If P(A) =
2
, P(B) = and P(AnB) = 8, then
4
1 1 1 5
P(AuB) +- -
= - - = - .
· 2 4 8 8
eg. 2: If P(A) = 0.25, P(B) = 0.50 and P(AuB) = 0.59, then
P(AnB) = 0.25 + 0.50 - 0.59 = 0.16
Cor 2. If £ 1 and E 2 are two events, then
(a) P(E1 nE2 ) = P(E1 )-P(E1 nE2)
(b) P(E1 uE2 )=1-P(E1 nE2 )
1 3 3
P(E3 ) = 2 . 8= 16
1 6 3
:. P(E4) = 2. 8 = 8
3 3 9
and P(E3nE4) = 16 . 8 - 128
The probability that the marbles are of same colour = P(E 1 nE2 ) + P(E 3 nE4 )
5 9 14 7
0 109
= 128 + 128 = 128 = 64 = ·
. h" Example 6 : Two marbles are drawn in succession from a box containing IO red, 3
; tbte, ~? blue and 15 orange marbles, with replacement being made after each draw. Find th
ro ab1hty that
(i) Both are white
(ii) First is red and second is white.
- ------ = - == 0.307 69
- 0.15 +0.2 1+0. 16 13
Exan 1ple 8 : A busin essm an goes to hote ls X, Y, Z, 20% , 50% , 30% of the time
respectively. It is know n that 5%, 4%, 8% of the room s in X, Y, Z hotel s have
faulty plumbings.
What is the probability that busin ess man 's room havi ng fault y plum bing is assig
ned to hotel Z?
[JNTU 2007, 2008 , (K) 2009, (A) Nov. 2010 (Set No. 3)]
Solution : Let the prob abili ties of busin ess man goin g to hote ls X, Y, Z be
respe ctive ly
P(X), P(Y), P(Z). Then
20 2 50 5 30 3
P(X) = 100 = 10; P(Y) = 100 - 10; P(Z) = 100 = 10
Let Ebe the even t that the hotel room has fault y plum bing . Then the prob abili
ties that
hotels X, Y, Z have faulty plum bing are
5 1 4 1 8 2
P(E IX) = l00 = ; P(E I Y) -
20 100 - 25; P(E IZ)= l00 - 25
The probability that the busin ess man 's room havi ng fault y plum bing is assig
ned to hotel Z
_ P(Z IE) = P(Z) .P(E I Z)
P(Z) . P(E I Z) + P(Y) . P(E I Y) + P(X ).P( E IX)
3 2
-x-
10 25 4
-
3 2 5 1 2 1 9
10 . 25 + 10 . 25 + 10 . 20
Exan1ple 9 : In a factory, mach ine A prod uces 40%
of the outpu t and mach ine B prod uces
60%.
bu
?n
the average, 9 item s in 1000 prod uced by A are defec tive and 1 item in 250
nradu
- 00
V
z
5
2 ( 4 x ) .--- 1
- 3f
- (2x 3 -x 4 )dx-I = -3 2. !.----
5 o
4 4 4 1
0
6 1 :::;:: -
-
3 [ 32
4 4 -5 -
32] ( 1-
1 = 24 4 5
.!.) - 1 ~ 5 --e- 2 x
5
when x > 0, fit(
() ~ kX
Example 13: For the continuous probability function/ x (I{) pee. 2013 (Set No,,
2 01
(i) k (ii) Mean (iii) Variance [JNTU 2005, 2005S, ~ ' .
, . . function for a continue
(OR) Is f(x) when x ~ O can be regarded as a probabthty
= .!.x2e-x
2 . bl [JNTU (H) Nov. 20H
random variable? If, so find Mean and Variance of the random varia e. a;;
. . • ""
[Hint : In order that f(x) should be a probab1hty iunc
tion J f (x) dx =1 ]
-aJ
00
i.e., k (0 + 2) = 1 or k = _!_
2
00 00
- k [ 3( -x) 2 -
- x -e - 3x (e x) + 6x(-e-x)- 6e-x]oo •
= k [-e-x( 3 2 ](X) o ' Using Bernoulli's Rule
x + 3x + 6x + 6) - k (i
1 o - [O + 6] :::: 6k
µ = 6 ( 2 ) = 3 (-.- h ~)
~ (
Random Variables 9:
00
-00
-J
00
0
x2.kx2 e-xdx-(3)2= k 1
x4e"-xdx-9
O
- ~ [-e-x(x 4 2
+4x 3 +12x +24x+24)~ - 9 [·: k = ~1
1
- [O + 24] - 9 = 12 - .9 = 3
2
E\ a n1 p Ir 1..i : The trouble shooting capability of an IC chip in a circuit is a ran
variable X whose distribution function is given by
i) P(AnB) = 2_ _l
=
36 18
ii) P(AuB) = P{A) + P(B)-P(AnB)
4 11 2 13
=-+-----
36 36 36 - 36
= o.!. + 1.!. + 2 .2 -+ 3. - 1
6 2 10 30
l
·= 0 + - + -3 + -1 \2
= - = \. 2
2 S 10 \0
F ,a m p k 2h : Let X denote the sum
of the two numbers
fair dice is tossed. D that appear when a pa
etennine the (i) Distr ir ()f
ibution function, (i i)
mean and (i ii) varian
ce.
(JNTU (K) May 20
(or) Two dice are \0 (Set No.4)\
rolled at random. F
. ind the probability di
numbers on them. A stribution of the sum
lso find the mean of th
e
.
distribution?
of the
(JNTU (K ) Nov. 20
Solution : (i) If tw 11 (Set No.4)\
o unbiased dice are
which tum up mus thrown, then the su
t be an in m X of the two num
teger between 2 an bers
For X= 2, there is d 12.
only one favourable
since there are 36 sa point (1, 1) and hen
mple points in all. ce P(X= 2) = l/36
For X = 3, there ar
e two favourable sa
P(X= 3) = 2 /3 6 . mple points (1, 2)
and {2, l) and henc
Similarly for X= 4,
there are three favo
and hence P(X = 4) urable sample poin
ts (1, 3,), (2, 2), (3
= 3 / 36 and so
on. ,l
Now'the probabilit
y distribution in this
case is given by the
X = X. following table:
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 .9 10
P(X = x.) 1/36 2/36 11 12
3/36 4/36 5/36
6/36 5/36 4/36
(ii) 3/36 2/36 1/36
Mean, µ = u; p(x;)
= 2X _!_ +3X
36
236- + 4 2_ +
X +12 X _!_
· 36 ..... 36
l
= 36 (2 +6 +12 +20
+30 + 42 + 40 +36 +30
+ 22 +12)
i.e., E(x) = 252 = 7
36
(iii) Variance, a2 =
E (x2)-[E (x)]2
= Ix; p (x,)-(7)2
,j 2 x.!..+32 X~+42 x
36 1-+52 X 4
36 36 2 \
36 + .... + 12 X 36 - 49
m Variables 73
I
= -(4 + 18 + 48 + 100 + 180 + 294 +320+324 + 300 + 242 + 144]-49
36
1974
= -49 = 54.83 -49 = 5.83
36
~:xample 27 : A fair die is tossed. Let the random variable X denote the twice th
number appearing on the die:
00
f i<x) r1x = 1
-00
fbr,dorn vam:1u,.., ...
00
0
. f 0. dx+ f kx e-Mdx =1 00 i.e., k f x e-Mdx = l
0
i.e.,
-~ 0
00
. k[x(~)- 1.(¢)] = 1
i.e., -A A 0
.
z.e.,
k [(o-O)-(o-~)] = 1 A
or k = ').,
2
00
2
Variance of the distribution, cr
2
= f x J(x) dx- µ
-00
2
f
oo x 2 f (x) dx - ( )2 = A fx e
2
A 2 oo 3 -'A,x dx - 24 (Apply Bernoulli's Rule)
i-.e., o- = 2
o o A
= ,.,2 [co-o+o-o)-(o-o+o-;)]-;
6 4 2
= A,2 - A,2 = A,2
\HI) l l r\A "-- 1\.) >VI L.)' llllU llll;
1nunn1unI V UIUC VI K
.
an Q , (lV
') beterniine~
.-\u;1
8
, =K+2K+2K+3K=8K= l0 =0.8
P(O < X < 4) = P(X = 0) + P(X == 1) + P(X == 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X "' 4)
=? + K + 2K + 2K + 3K == 8K == 8 (0.1) = 0.8
Note : P(X < 5) == P(X == 0) + P(X == 1) + .... + P(X = 5)
=== 0.81 [Ref~r (ii)]
5
P(X > ) == l-P(X s; 5) == 1-0.81== 0.19 SI
(iii) P(O < X < 6) == P(X == 1) + P(X == 2) + .... + P(X = 5) ""O.
The required minimum value of K is obtained as below.
1 2 3
- 10 + 10 = 10 = o. 3
P(X< 3) = [P(X= 0) + P(X= 1) + P(X= 2)] + P(X= 3) = 0.3 + 0.2 = 0.5
=~
3
P(X< 4) = P(X< 3) + P(X= 4) = 0.5 + = 0.8 > 0.5
10
. . ) 1
:. T he m1n1mum value of K for which P(X < K) > is K = 4
2
(iv) ~he distribution function of Xis given by the following table :
X F(x) = P(X < x)
0 0
1 K = 1/10
2 3K = 3/10
3 5K = 5/10
4 8K = 8/10
5 8K + K2 = 81/100
6 8K + 3K2 = 83/100
7 9K + 10K2 = 1
7
(v) Mean,µ= L Pi xi
i=O
- 0(0) + l(K) + 2(2.K) +3(2K) + 4(3K) + 5(K2) + 6(2K2) + 7(7K2 + K)
-
66
66K2 + 30K = l00 +
30
10 = 0.66 + 3 = 3.66 ( ·: K = l0 1)
7
(vi) Variance= L Pi x; - µ 2
i=O 2 2
- K + 8K + 18K + 48K + 25K2 + 72K2 + 343K + 49K - (3.66)
440 124
- 440K2 + 124K - (3.66)
2
= 100 + lQ - (3.66) 2
- 4.4 + 12.4 - 13.3956 = 3.4044
Example 4 : A random variable X has the following probability distribution.