Probability Cheat Sheet Edexcel Stats/Mech Year 1

Calculating probabilities Mutually exclusive independent events Tree diagrams

An experiment is a repeatable process that gives rise to a number of outcomes. An Events which have no outcomes in common are called mutually exclusive. The closed A tree diagram can be used to show the outcomes of two or more events
event is a collection of one or more outcomes. A sample space is the set of all possible curves do not overlap in a Venn Diagram. happening in succession.
outcomes.
𝑆 Example: A bag contains seven green beads and five blue beads. A bead is
Probabilities can be written as decimals or fractions and are in the range of taken from the bag at random and not replaced. A second bead is then
0(impossible) to 1(certain). taken from the bag. Find the probability that:
A B
If each outcome has an equal likelihood of occurring, a. Both beads are green
1. Draw a tree diagram to show the events.
number of possible outcomes in the event
Probability of event =
total number of possible outcomes For mutually exclusive events, 6
P(𝐴 or 𝐵) =P(𝐴)+P(𝐵) 11 Green
Example 1: The table shows the time taken, in minutes, for a group of students to
complete a number puzzle. 7 Green
When one event has no effect on another, they are independent. For independent events
Time, 𝑡(min) 5≤𝑡<7 7≤𝑡<9 9 ≤ 𝑡 < 11 11 ≤ 𝑡 < 13 13 ≤ 𝑡 < 15 12
A and B, the probability of B happening is the same regardless of whether A happens. 5
Frequency 6 13 12 15 4 Blue
For independent events,
P(𝐴 and 𝐵)=P(𝐴)×P(𝐵) 11
A student is chosen at random. Find the probability that they finished the
number puzzle: You can also use this multiplication rule to check if events are independent. 7
a. In under 9 minutes Green
Total number of students: 6 + 13 + 12 + 15 + 4 = 50 Example 2: The Venn diagram shows the number of students in a particular class who 11
Number of students who finished under 9 minutes: 6 + 13 = 19
5
watch any of three popular TV shows
!"
P (finished under 9 minutes) = #$ 12 Blue
b. In over 10.5 minutes 𝑆 4 Blue
% A B C
10.5 minutes is & through the 9 ≤ 𝑡 < 11 class. Estimate using interpolation: 11
1
× 12 = 3
4
3 + 15 + 4 = 22 3 4 5 10 7
'' 2. Multiply along the branch of tree diagram:
P (finished in over 10.5 minutes) = #$ 3 6 3
P(green and green) = × 44 = 55
45
Venn Diagrams
1
A Venn diagram can be used to represent events graphically. Frequencies or
probabilities can be placed in the regions of Venn diagrams. b. The beads are different colours
P(different colours) = P(green then blue) + P(blue then green)
a. Find the probability of a student chosen at random watches 𝐵 or 𝐶 or both.
7 5 5 7
A rectangle represents the sample space, 𝑆. It contains closed curves which represent 4 + 5 + 10 + 7 = 26 = × + ×
events. !" %# 12 11 12 11
P(watches 𝐵 or 𝐶 or both)= = %& 35
#$
=
A 𝑆 A 𝑆 𝑆 66
B B A B b. Determine whether watching 𝐴 and watching 𝐵 are statistically independent.
#'( )
P(𝐴)= =
#$ #$
('&'%$ %*
P(𝐵)= = #$
#$
( !
P(𝐴 and 𝐵)= = %&
#$
) %* %##
Intersection of A and Union of A and B The shaded area P(𝐴)×P(𝐵)= × #$ = *$$
#$
B shows the event in shows the event in shows the event in
P(𝐴 and 𝐵)≠ P(𝐴)×P(𝐵)
which both A and B which either A or B which A does not
occur occur Therefore, watching 𝐴 and watching 𝐵 are not statistically independent.
or both occur

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