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Reference Material Frequency Distribution

The document discusses flood frequency and probability analysis using Gumbel's extreme value distribution. It provides the key equations for Gumbel's distribution that relate the return period (T) to the expected flood magnitude (xT). The equations are modified for practical application with finite data sets. Procedures are outlined for estimating flood magnitudes for given return periods using Gumbel's distribution fitted to annual maximum flood discharge data.

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Md. Habibur Rahman Bejoy Khan ,155408
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37 views

Reference Material Frequency Distribution

The document discusses flood frequency and probability analysis using Gumbel's extreme value distribution. It provides the key equations for Gumbel's distribution that relate the return period (T) to the expected flood magnitude (xT). The equations are modified for practical application with finite data sets. Procedures are outlined for estimating flood magnitudes for given return periods using Gumbel's distribution fitted to annual maximum flood discharge data.

Uploaded by

Md. Habibur Rahman Bejoy Khan ,155408
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Lecture Note on

Flood Probability (Flood Frequency)


1
Recalling that; P  ; where T =return period ,and P=the probability,
T
m
using plotting position(p.p.) method; P  ; m=order number of events,
N1
and N=total number of events.
If the events were taken as discharges; a plot of Q vs. T yields a
probability distribution. For small return periods, a simple best-fitting
curve can e used to extrapolate the probability distribution . A log-
scale for T is often preferable.
When larger T is involved, the frequency analysis of flood problems
should be used to predict the extreme flood events.
The general equation of hydrologic frequency analysis is:
x T  x  k  x ……………………………………….…....(1)
Where xT=value of variate x of random hydrologic series with return
period T; x =mean of the variate ; σx= standard deviation of variate; and
k= frequency factor which depends on return period T; and the type of
frequency distribution.
Some of the commonly used frequency functions:
1. Gumbel's extreme-value distribution (widely used in UK).
2. Log-Pearson type III distribution (widely used in USA).
3. Log-Normal distribution .
The following details is about the first type of distribution, which is
the Extreme-Value type I .The method was firstly introduced by
Gumbel (1941) and commonly known as Gumbel's distribution. The
method was used to predict a flood peaks, maximum rainfall, maximum
wind speed,….etc., and the annual series flows constitute a series of
largest value of flows. ‫ ﻳﻮﻣﺎ وأن اﻟﺴﻠﺴـﻠﺔ‬٣٦٥ ‫أﻗﺼﻰ ﺗﺼﺮﻳﻒ ﺧﻼل‬
‫اﻟﺰﻣﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺼﺎرﻳﻒ ﺗﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﻘﻴﻢ اﻟﻘﺼﻮى ﻟﻬﺎ‬
The probability of occurrence of an event equal or larger than
value such xo is:
P(x  x o )  1  e  e ………………………………..……(2)
y

Y =a dimensionless variable , given by:


Y =α (x-a) ,in which; α =1.2825/ σx ,and a= x -0.45005 σx
Hence; y can be written as;
1.2825(x  x )
y  0.577 ……………………………(3)
x

1
In practice, x is the value for given P that is required by Eq.(2) is
transposed as;
y P  Ln Ln(1  P) ……………………………………(4)
1
And since P  ,so that;
T
  T 
y T  Ln Ln   ……………………………….(5)
  T  1
yT =the value of y commonly called " reduced variate" ‫العامل المختزل‬
Now ,rearranging Eq. (3) using x with return period T, and the
reduced value of variate y to get the following:
y T  0.577
xT  x  x
1.2825
Thus; k= 0.7797 yT - 0.45005
Or more suitable form;
y T  0.577
k …………………………………….(6)
1.2825
These are the basic Gumbel's equations applicable to an infinite
sample size(i.e. N   ) .

Gumbel's Equations for Practical Use


Since practical annual data series of extreme events have finite
lengths of records ;Eq.(6) must be modified by considering the finite N
,as given below;
x T  x  k  n 1 …………………………………..(7)
(x  x ) 2 x
In which  n 1  and x
N1 N
Therefore ; Eq.(6) became :
y T  yn
k ………………………………...(8)
Sn
yn = reduced mean ; It was a function of sample size (N) and given in
Table -1- ; for N   ; yn = 0.577
Sn= reduced standard deviation ; It was a function of sample size (N)
and given in Table -2- ; for N   ; Sn =1.2825.

2
The procedure used to estimate flood magnitude corresponding
to given return period ,T are;
1. Collect discharge data and note the sample size N. Find x and σn-1 .
2. Using Table -1- and Table -2- to determine yn and Sn vs. N.
3. Find yT for given T by Eq.(5).
4. Find k by Eq.(8).
5. Determine xT using Eq.(7).

3
How to verify whether the given data follow Gumbel's
distribution or not……….. The following steps may be adopted:
1. Calculate xT for some return periods T  N using Gumbel's
formula.(say 3 or 4 values of x)
2. Plot xT vs. T on semi-log or log-log or Gumbel probability paper
(T must plot on log-scale)..
3. The use of Gumbel probability paper results a straight line for
xT vs. T relationship.
4. The Gumbel's distribution has a property that the average
annual series was located at T=2.33 years, when N is large.
This value called "Mean Annual Flood " ‫ متوس ط الفيض ان الس نوي‬.In
graphical plot this gives a mandatory point through which the
line showing variation of xT with T.
N1
5. For given data , T may calculated from PP method ( ) and for
m
various recorded values , x of variate obtained from pp are
plotted on graph descried above.
6. A good fit of observed data with theoretical variation line
indicates applicability of Gumbel's distribution.

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