Scribd
Upload
57 views

Project Probability

This document provides an introduction to the topic of probability. It defines probability as the branch of mathematics concerning how likely events are to occur. Several key terms related to probability are listed, such as experiment, sample space, event, and outcome. The formula for calculating probability is provided as P(A) = n(A) / n(S), where n(A) is the number of favorable outcomes and n(S) is the total number of outcomes. An activity is described where students recorded the results of coin tosses to understand probability through observation and calculation. The conclusion states that probability theory is widely applied, such as in insurance, economics, science, and games involving chance.

Uploaded by

Gd
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
57 views

Project Probability

This document provides an introduction to the topic of probability. It defines probability as the branch of mathematics concerning how likely events are to occur. Several key terms related to probability are listed, such as experiment, sample space, event, and outcome. The formula for calculating probability is provided as P(A) = n(A) / n(S), where n(A) is the number of favorable outcomes and n(S) is the total number of outcomes. An activity is described where students recorded the results of coin tosses to understand probability through observation and calculation. The conclusion states that probability theory is widely applied, such as in insurance, economics, science, and games involving chance.

Uploaded by

Gd
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 6

PROJECT _ CLASS _ 10 2nd PROJECT

TOPIC – PROBABILITY

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

INDEX

INTRODUCTION: - Probability is the science of how likely events are to happen. It is


the branch of mathematics concerning numerical descriptions of how likely an event is to
occur, or how likely it is that a proposition is true. The higher the probability of an event, the
more likely it is that the event will occur. At its simplest, it’s concerned with the roll of a
dice, or the fall of the cards in a game. But probability is also vital to science and life more
generally. The concepts of probability have been given an axiomatic mathematical
formalization in probability theory, which is used widely in areas of study such as
mathematics, statistics, finance, gambling, science (in particular physics), artificial
intelligence, machine learning, computer science, game theory, and philosophy to, for
example, draw inferences about the expected frequency of events. Probability theory is also
used to describe the underlying mechanics and regularities of complex systems.

Probability is used, for example, in such diverse areas as weather forecasting and to work out
the cost of your insurance premiums. A basic understanding of probability is an essential skill
in life, even if you are not a professional gambler or weather forecaster.

SOME TERMS RELATED TO PROBABILITY: -

• EXPERIMENT
• RANDOM EXPERIMENT
• SAMPLE SPACE
• EVENT
• OCCURANCE OF AN EVENT
• FAVOURABLE OUTCOMES
• EQUALLY LIKELY OUTCOMES

Students must define the above terms with examples. They can refer to their text book
for this purpose.

DEFINITION OF PROBABILITY: -

The formula of the probability of an event is:


Or, P(A) = n(A) / n(S)

Where,

• P(A) is the probability of an event “A”


• n(A) is the number of favourable outcomes
• n(S) is the total number of events in the sample space

Let A be an event then the number of outcomes favourable to A is greater than or equal to
zero and less than or equal to total number of outcomes. It follows that

0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1

Students must define with examples the following: -

• SURE EVENT
• IMPOSSIBLE EVENT
• ELEMENTARY EVENTS
• COMPOUND EVENTS
• COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS

Mention the probabilities or their relations for the above events (if possible). Refer to your
text book for help.

ACTIVITY

Our class was divided into five groups and each group was asked to toss a coin 20 times.
Coins of same denomination and size were used by every group, so that it may be treated as
if the same coin was tossed by all the groups. Each group was asked to record the
observations regarding the number of heads and number of tails. All the groups were then
asked to record their observations in a table in the following format.
TABLE

Group No. of No. of No. of 𝐶𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑠 𝐶𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑠
no. tosses HEADS TAILS 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑠
1 20 09 11 9 11
20 20
2 20 12 08 9+12 21 11+8 19
= =
20+20 40 20+20 40
3 20 11 09 9+12+11 32 11+8+9 28
= =
20+20+20 60 20+20+20 60
4 20 08 12 9+12+11+8 40 11+8+9+12 40
= =
20+20+20+20 80 20+20+20+20 80
5 20 10 10 9+12+11+8+10 50 11+8+9+12+10 50
= =
20+20+20+20+20 100 20+20+20+20+20 100

OBSERVATION

Group 1 wrote its observation and calculated its result in fraction and a cumulative process
was followed thereafter. Each group noted their observation and calculated the fractions on
the combined data of the previous groups. From the above table, we can see that as the
number of tosses increases, the values of the fractions in the fifth and sixth columns gradually
moves closer to 0.5. Also the sum of probabilities recorded in the last two columns is always
equal to 1.

If H is the event of getting heads and T is the event of getting tails in tossing a coin, then

50 50 100
P(H) + P(T) = + 100 = 100 = 1.
100

Thus, we can conclude that the sum of probabilities of all elementary events, i.e. all possible
probabilities sum up to 1.

CONCLUSION

Probability theory is applied in everyday life in risk assessment and modelling. The insurance
industry and markets use actuarial science to determine pricing and make trading decisions.
Governments apply probabilistic methods in environmental regulation, entitlement analysis
(reliability theory of aging and longevity), and financial regulation. In addition to financial
assessment, probability can be used to analyze trends in biology (e.g., disease spread) as well
as ecology (e.g., biological Punnett squares).

Probability plays an important role in analyzing insurance policies to determine which plans
are best for us or our family and what deductible amounts you need. For example, when
choosing a car insurance policy, we use probability to determine how likely it is that you'll
need to file a claim. Nearly every day we use probability to plan around the weather.
Meteorologists can't predict exactly what the weather will be, so they use tools and
instruments to determine the likelihood that it will rain, snow or hail. Athletes and coaches
use probability to determine the best sports strategies for games and competitions. We use
probability when you play board, card or video games that involve luck or chance. We must
weigh the odds of getting the cards you need in poker or the secret weapons you need in a
video game. The likelihood of getting those cards or tokens will determine how much risk
we're willing to take.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

NOTE :
1. Acknowledgement, Index and Bibliography are to be written by the students
themselves. Here they are only mentioned as headings so that students follow the
correct sequence.
2. The images of the pages from your text book which you may need to refer for
developing “some terms related to probability” and “definition of probability” are
attached here.
Reference for developing content under definition of probability.

You might also like