ENGINEERING

DATA6.53ANALYSIS
MATH403
PROBABILITY

MATH403 – ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS 2

 OBJECTIVES
• Understand and describe sample spaces and events for
random experiments
• Explain the concept of probability and its application to
different situations.
• Define and illustrate the different probability rules
• Solve for the probability of different statistical data

MATH403 – ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS 3

PROBABILITY

MATH403 – ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS 4

PROBABILITY
- Probability is the likelihood or chance of an
event occurring.
Probability Theory:
𝑆
𝑃 𝐴 =
𝑇
Where,
S – Successful Outcomes
T – Total Number of Possible Outcomes

MATH403 – ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS 5

 Example:
Find the probability of showing an even number from a single roll of dice.

Example:
Find the probability of showing two heads from tossing the coin twice.

MATH403 – ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS 6

HOW TO INTERPRET PROBABILITY?
Mathematically, the probability that an event will occur is expressed as a
number between 0 and 1. Notationally, the probability of event A is
represented by P(A).

If P(A) equals zero, event A will definitely not occur.

If P(A) is close to zero, there is only a small chance that event A will occur.
If P(A) equals 0.5, there is a 50-50 chance that event A will occur.
If P(A) is close to one, there is a strong chance that event A will occur.
If P(A) equals one, event A will definitely occur.

MATH403 – ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS 7

 SET THEORY
• A set is a well-defined collection of objects.

• Each object in a set is called an element of the set.

• Two sets are equal if they have exactly the same

elements in them.

• A set that contains no elements is called a null set or

an empty set.

• If every element in Set A is also in Set B, then Set A is

a subset of Set B.

MATH403 – ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS 8

VENN DIAGRAM
A
A
A A
A B
B

A B

B B
C
C
C
S S S
INTERSECTION OF EVENTS
• The intersection of two events A and B is denoted by the symbol A ∩ B.
• It is the event containing all elements that are common to A and B.
• A∩B=Ø
• MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

AA A BC
A
A B
A B

C
C
B B

S S S
INTERSECTION OF EVENTS

Example #1:
➢A = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}
➢B = {2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19}

➢A ∩ B = ?
➢A ∩ B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}∩{2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19}
➢A ∩ B = {2, 3, 5, 7}
INTERSECTION OF EVENTS

Example #2:
➢A = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9}
➢B = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10}

➢A ∩ B = ?
➢A ∩ B = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9} ∩ {2, 4, 6, 8, 10}
➢A ∩ B = Ø
UNION OF EVENTS
• The Union of Events A and B is the event containing all the elements that
belong to A or to B or to both and is denoted by the symbol A ∪ B.

AA
A BC

A
A B
B

C
B B
C
S S S
UNION OF EVENTS

Example #1:
➢A = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9}
➢B = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10}

➢A ∪ B = ?
➢A ∪ B = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9} ∪ {2, 4, 6, 8, 10}
➢A ∪ B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}
ABSOLUTE COMPLIMENT OF AN EVENT
• Compliment of an event A with respect to S is the set of all elements of S
that are not in A and is denoted by Ac.

A A B
A B

A B

C
S SS S
COMPLIMENT OF AN EVENT
Example #1:
➢ S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15}
➢ A = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10}
➢ B = {1, 5, 9, 13}

➢A ∪ B = ?
➢ A ∪ B = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10} ∪ {1, 5, 9, 13}
➢ A ∪ B = {1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 13}

➢ (A ∪ B)c = ?
➢ (A ∪ B)c = {1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 13}c
➢ (A ∪ B)c = {3, 7, 11, 12, 14, 15}
RELATIVE COMPLIMENT OF AN EVENT
• The difference of A and B or the relative compliment of B with respect to
A is denoted by A / B

A B

A B

C
S S
OPERATIONS WITH EVENTS
Example No. 1: In a class of 40 students, 27 like Calculus and 25 like Chemistry.
How many like both Calculus and Chemistry?
OPERATIONS WITH EVENTS
Example No. 2: In a commercial survey involving 1000 persons on brand reference, 120 were
found to prefer brand A only, 200 prefer brand B only, 150 prefer brand C only, 370 prefer either
brand A or B but not C, 450 prefer brand B or C but not A and 370 prefer either brand C or A but
not B. How many persons have no brand preference, satisfied with any of the three brands.
THE ADDITION PRINCIPLE
• If one event can occur in m different ways and a second event with no common
outcomes can occur in n different ways, then the first and second event can occur in
𝑁 = 𝑚 + 𝑛 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
Example #1:
➢ There are 2 vegetarian entrée options and 5 meat entrée options on a dinner menu.
What is the total number of entrée options?
𝑁 =2+5
𝑵 = 𝟕 𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒓𝒆𝒆 𝒐𝒑𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒔

Example #2:
➢ A student is shopping for a new computer. He is deciding among 5 desktop computers
and 4 laptop computers. What is the total number of computer options?
𝑁 =5+4
𝑵 = 𝟗 𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒑𝒖𝒕𝒆𝒓 𝒐𝒑𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒔
THE MULTIPLICATION PRINCIPLE
• If one event can occur in m ways and a second event can occur
in n ways after the first event has occurred, then the two events
can occur in
𝑁 = 𝑚 ⋅ 𝑛 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠
• Also called “Fundamental Principle of Counting”

• For two or more events:

𝑁 = 𝑛1 ⋅ n2 ⋅ 𝑛3 ⋅ … ⋅ 𝑛𝑚
THE MULTIPLICATION PRINCIPLE
Example 1: If there are 5 main routes between city A and city B,
and 3 main routes between city B and city C. In how many ways
can a person drive from city A to city C and return, through city B
in both trips without driving on the same route twice?
THE MULTIPLICATION PRINCIPLE
Example 2: How many 3-digit number can be formed from the
digits 1, 3, 4, 6, 7 and 9 if each digit is to be used once.
THE MULTIPLICATION PRINCIPLE
Example 3: How many 4-digit numbers can be formed from the
digits 0, 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, and 9 if each digit can be used only once?
THE MULTIPLICATION PRINCIPLE
Example 3: How many even 4-digit numbers can be formed
from the digits 0, 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, and 9 if each digit can be used
only once?
FACTORIAL NOTATION
• If n is a positive integer, n factorial denoted by n! is defined as:

𝑛! = 1 ⋅ 2 ⋅ 3 ⋅ … ⋅ 𝑛
Example:
➢ 4! = 1 ⋅ 2 ⋅ 3 ⋅ 4 = 24
➢ 6! = 1 ⋅ 2 ⋅ 3 ⋅ 4 ⋅ 5 ⋅ 6 = 720

• Recursive formula for n!:

0! = 1

𝑛! = 𝑛 𝑛 − 1 !
 PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION
Permutation and combination are the ways to represent a
group of objects by selecting them in a set and forming
subsets. It defines the various ways to arrange a certain
group of data. When we select the data or objects from a
certain group, it is said to be permutations, whereas the
order in which they are represented is called combination.
Both concepts are very important in Mathematics.
 PERMUTATION AND COMBINATION
Permutation Combination

Arranging people, digits, numbers, alphabets, Selection of menu, food, clothes, subjects,
letters, and colours team.

Picking a team captain, pitcher and shortstop

Picking three team members from a group.
from a group.

Picking two favourite colours, in order, from a

Picking two colours from a colour brochure.
colour brochure.

Picking first, second and third place winners. Picking three winners.
 PERMUTATION OF ‘N’ DIFFERENT OBJECTS,
TAKEN ‘R’ AT A TIMEC
• Permutation is arrangement of a set of objects or things in a specific
or definite order.
𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑟 =
𝑛−𝑟 !
Where:
• n = total number of elements in a set
• r = the number of elements taken to form the arrangement
 PERMUTATION OF ‘N’ DIFFERENT OBJECTS,
Example #1:
TAKEN ‘R’ AT A TIME
➢A locker combination system uses four digits from 0-9, How many different 4- digit
locker combinations are possible if no digits can be replaced in each combination?

𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑟 =
𝑛−𝑟 !
n = 10 (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9)
r = 4 (4-digit code)

10!
10𝑃4 =
10 − 4 !

= 𝟓, 𝟎𝟒𝟎 (𝟒 − 𝒅𝒊𝒈𝒊𝒕 𝒍𝒐𝒄𝒌𝒆𝒓 𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒃𝒊𝒏𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏)

 PERMUTATION OF ‘N’ DIFFERENT OBJECTS,
TAKEN ‘R’ AT A TIME
Example #2:
➢There are four balls of four different colors. Two balls are taken at a time and arranged in a
definite order. For example, if a white and a red balls are taken, one definite arrangement
is white first, red second, and other arrangement is red first, white second. How many
such arrangements are possible?

𝑛!
𝑛𝑃𝑟 =
𝑛−𝑟 !
n = 4 (four different colored balls)
r = 2 (two balls taken)

4!
4𝑃2 =
4−2 !

= 𝟏𝟐 𝒂𝒓𝒓𝒂𝒏𝒈𝒆𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔
 PERMUTATION OF ‘N’ DIFFERENT OBJECTS
TAKEN ALL AT A TIME
Formula:
𝑛𝑃𝑛 = 𝑛! ⊳ (𝑛 = 𝑟)

Example #1:
➢Find the number of different 5-letter arrangements that can be made from the
letters of the word ANGLE?
𝑛𝑃𝑛 = 𝑛!
n = 5 (A, N, G, L, E)
r = 5 (5 letter arrangements)
5𝑃5 = 5!

= 𝟏𝟐𝟎 𝒅𝒊𝒇𝒇𝒆𝒓𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝟓 − 𝒍𝒆𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒓 𝒂𝒓𝒓𝒂𝒏𝒈𝒆𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔

 PERMUTATION OF ‘N’ DIFFERENT OBJECTS
TAKEN ALL AT A TIME
Example #2:
➢The number of ways can 4 nurses and 3 engineers be seated
on a bench with nurses seated together is
Number of ways the nurses can be arranged Number of Order:
= 4! N N N N E E E
Number of ways the 3 engineers can be E N N N N E E
arranged
E E N N N N E
= 3!
𝑁 = 4! 3! 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑟𝑑𝑒𝑟 E E E N N N N

= 4 orders
𝑁 = (4!)(3!)(4)

𝑵 = 𝟓𝟕𝟔 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔
PERMUTATION OF ‘N’ OBJECTS OF WHICH SOME ARE ALIKE
• Permutation of n things taken “r” at a time, of which p are alike, q are alike, s are alike, etc..

𝑛!
𝑃=
𝑛 − 𝑟 ! 𝑝! 𝑞! 𝑠! …
Example #1:
➢ Find the number of permutation that can be formed from the word COMMITTEE.
n = 9 (C, O, M, M, I, T, T, E, E)
r = 9 (all letters are taken)
From which there are:
2 M’s; 2 T’s; 2 E’s
𝑛!
𝑃=
𝑛 − 𝑟 ! 𝑝! 𝑞! 𝑠!

9!
𝑃=
9 − 9 ! 2! 2! 2!

𝑷 = 𝟒𝟓, 𝟑𝟔𝟎
 PERMUTATION OF ‘N’ OBJECTS OF WHICH
SOME ARE ALIKE
Example #2:
➢There are 3 copies each 0f 4 different books. In how many different ways
can they be arranged on a shelf?
n = 12 (3 copies x 4 different books)
r = 12 (all books are arranged)
From which there are:
3 Book 1; 3 Book 2; 3 Book 3; 3 Book 4
𝑛!
𝑃=
𝑛 − 𝑟 ! 𝑝! 𝑞! 𝑠! 𝑡!

12!
𝑃=
12 − 12 ! 3! 3! 3! 3!

𝑷 = 𝟑𝟔𝟗, 𝟔𝟎𝟎 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔

RING OR CYCLIC PERMUTATION
• The number of ways of arranging n different things around a circle.

𝑃 = 𝑛 − 1 ! ⊳ 𝑖𝑛 𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑒

Special case:
• For bracelets, key rings, or any other similar set up, there are only half
as many arrangements as with other circular permutations because
they can be flipped over, thus there is no distinction between
clockwise and counterclockwise order, it is still the same arrangement.

𝑛−1 !
𝑃= ⊳ 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒
2
 RING OR CYCLIC PERMUTATION
Example #1:
➢In how many ways can 10 people be seated at a round table?

𝑃 = 𝑛−1 !

𝑃 = 10 − 1 !

𝑷 = 𝟑𝟔𝟐, 𝟖𝟖𝟎 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔

 RING OR CYCLIC PERMUTATION
Example #2:
➢By stringing together 10 differently colored beads, how many
different bracelets can be made?

𝑛−1 !
𝑃=
2

10 − 1 !
𝑃=
2

𝑷 = 𝟏𝟖𝟏, 𝟒𝟒𝟎 𝒅𝒊𝒇𝒇𝒆𝒓𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒃𝒓𝒂𝒄𝒆𝒍𝒆𝒕𝒔

COMBINATION
• It is an arrangement of a set of objects or things where order does not
count.

𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 =
𝑛 − 𝑟 ! 𝑟!
Where:
• n = total number of elements in a set
• r = the number of elements taken to form the arrangement
COMBINATION
Example #1:
➢In a certain basketball team of 12 players, how many different starting lineups
are possible?

In choosing a 5 man lineup, the arrangement of picking does not count. So we

use combination formula:
𝑛!
𝑛𝐶𝑟 =
𝑛 − 𝑟 ! 𝑟!
• n = 12 (total players)
• r = 5 (number of players for each lineup)

12!
12𝐶5 =
12 − 5 ! 5!

= 𝟕𝟗𝟐 𝒅𝒊𝒇𝒇𝒆𝒓𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒓𝒕𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒍𝒊𝒏𝒆𝒖𝒑𝒔

COMBINATION
Example #2:
➢A semiconductor company will hire 7 men and 4 women. In how many ways
can the company chose from 9 men and 6 women who qualified for the
position?

The number of ways to select 7 out of 9 qualified men is:

= 9C7
The number of ways to select 4 out of 6 qualified women is:
= 6C4
Applying the principle of counting:
𝑁 = (9𝐶7)(6𝐶4)

= 𝟓𝟒𝟎 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔
 COMBINATION OF ‘N’ DIFFERENT THINGS
TAKEN 1, 2, 3, …, N AT A TIME
Formula:

𝐶 = 𝑛𝐶1 + 𝑛𝐶2 + 𝑛𝐶3 + ⋯ + 𝑛𝐶𝑛

or
𝐶 = 2𝑛 − 1
Example #1:
➢In how many ways can a manager choose one or more janitor from five equally
qualified applicants?
𝐶 = 5𝐶1 + 5𝐶2 + 5𝐶3 + 5𝐶4 + 5𝐶5

𝑪 = 𝟑𝟏 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔
or
𝐶 = 25 − 1

𝑪 = 𝟑𝟏 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔
 COMBINATION OF ‘N’ DIFFERENT THINGS
TAKEN 1, 2, 3, …, N AT A TIME
Example #2:
➢A girl has 7 flowers, each of a different variety. How many different
bouquets can she form?

𝐶 = 7𝐶1 + 7𝐶2 + 7𝐶3 + 7𝐶4 + 7𝐶5 + 7𝐶6 + 7𝐶7

𝑪 = 𝟏𝟐𝟕 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔
or
𝐶 = 27 − 1

𝑪 = 𝟏𝟐𝟕 𝒘𝒂𝒚𝒔
PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
• Probability is the likelihood or chance of an event occurring.

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑠𝑒𝑡

𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 =
𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡

𝑛(𝐸)
𝑃(𝐸) =
𝑛(𝑆)
Note:
• The probability of an event is a number between 0 and 1.
For Impossible Event:
• P(E) = 0 , means that the event cannot occur
For a Sure or Certain Event:
• P(E) = 1 , means that the event is sure to occur
COMPLEMENTARY PROBABILITY
• Probability that the event E will not happen

𝐹 𝐹𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
𝑃 𝐸ത = =
𝑆 + 𝐹 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠

𝑃 𝐸ത = 1 − 𝑃 𝐸
Where:
• S = number of successful outcomes
• F = number of failures
COMPLEMENTARY PROBABILITY
Example #1:
➢Find the probability of not getting a sum of seven in one roll of a pair
of dice.
❖ Find the total number of possible outcomes
and total number of failures
❖ Total number of possible outcomes 𝐹𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
𝑃𝑛𝑜𝑡 7 =
= 6 · 6 = 36 𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
❖ Possible outcomes of forming a sum of 7:
𝟑𝟎
1+6 𝑷𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝟕 =
2+5 𝟑𝟔
3+4 𝟓
4+3 𝑷𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝟕 =
𝟔
5+2
6+1
Total number of failures = 36 – 6 = 30
COMPLEMENTARY PROBABILITY
Example #2:
➢Find the probability of not getting a sum of nine in one roll of a pair of
dice.
❖Find the total number of possible
𝐹𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
outcomes and total number of failures 𝑃𝑛𝑜𝑡 9 =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
❖Total number of possible outcomes
= 6 · 6 = 36
❖Possible outcomes of forming a sum of 32
𝑃𝑛𝑜𝑡 9 =
9: 36
3+6
𝟖
4+5 𝑷𝒏𝒐𝒕 𝟗 =
5+4 𝟗
6+3
Total number of failures = 36 – 4 = 32
COMPLEMENTARY PROBABILITY
Example #3:
➢If the probability of winning a certain game is Pw = ¾, then what is
the probability of losing a game?

𝑃𝑤
ഥ = 1 − 𝑃𝑤

3
𝑃𝑤
ഥ =1−
4

𝟏
𝑃𝑤
ഥ=
𝟒
COMPLEMENTARY PROBABILITY
Example #4:
➢If the probability of winning a certain game is PE = 2/5, then what is
the probability of losing a game?

𝑃𝐸 ҧ = 1 − 𝑃𝐸

2
𝑃𝐸 ҧ = 1 −
5

𝟑
𝑃𝐸 ҧ =
𝟓
MATHEMATICAL EXPECTATION
• Mathematical expectation, also known as the expected value, which is the
summation of all possible values from a random variable defined as:

𝐸 = 𝑝𝑆 = ∑ (p1S1) + (p2S2) + .. + (pnSn)

Example:
➢The dice is thrown. What is the mathematical expectation?
𝐸 = 𝑝𝑆
P = 1/6
S = 1,2,3,4,5,6
1
𝐸 = × (1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 6)
6
𝟐𝟏
𝑬= = 𝟑. 𝟓
𝟔
 ODDS
• It is the ratio of the probability of an event’s occurring to the probability of its
not occurring:

𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑓𝑢𝑙 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑠
𝑂𝐷𝐷𝑆 =
𝐹𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑠
• In terms of probability
𝑝
𝑂𝐷𝐷𝑆 =
𝑞
Where:
• p = probability of success
• q = probability of failure
• q=1-p
ODDS
Example #1:
The probability of an event that an LPA (Low Pressure Area) will become
typhoon is 0.3. Find the odds in favor of typhoon.
p = probability of success 𝑝
𝑂𝐷𝐷𝑆 =
p = 0.3 𝑞

q = probability of failure 0.3

𝑂𝐷𝐷𝑆 =
q=1–p 0.7
q = 1 – 0.3
𝟑
q = 0.7 𝑶𝑫𝑫𝑺 = = 𝟑: 𝟕
𝟕
 PROBABILITY OF MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
EVENTS
• Two or more events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur
simultaneously, or they cannot occur at the same time or they don’t have
common outcome.

𝑃 𝐴𝑜𝑟𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃(𝐵)

𝑃 𝐴∪𝐵 =𝑃 𝐴 +𝑃 𝐵
Addition Rule of Probability:
• The probability that a set of mutually exclusive events will happen in a single
trial is the sum of the probabilities of the separate events.

𝑃 = 𝑃 1 + 𝑃 2 + 𝑃 3 + ⋯ + 𝑃(𝑛)
 PROBABILITY OF MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
EVENTS
Example #1:
➢Find the probability of drawing an ACE or a Face card in a
single draw from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards.
❖ Find probability of drawing an ACE card and
𝑃 𝐴𝐶𝐸 ∪ 𝐹𝐴𝐶𝐸 = 𝑃𝐴𝐶𝐸 + 𝑃𝐹𝐴𝐶𝐸
probability of drawing a face card
4 12
𝑃 𝐴𝐶𝐸 ∪ 𝐹𝐴𝐶𝐸 = +
❖ Number of ACE cards: 4 (♥, ♦, ♣, ♠) 52 52
PACE = 4/52
16
𝑃 𝐴𝐶𝐸 ∪ 𝐹𝐴𝐶𝐸 =
❖ Number of Face cards: 52
12 (4 Jacks, 4 Queens, 4 Kings) (♥, ♦, ♣, ♠) 𝟒
PFACE = 12/52 𝑷 𝑨𝑪𝑬 ∪ 𝑭𝑨𝑪𝑬 =
𝟏𝟑
 PROBABILITY OF MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE
EVENTS
Example #2:
➢In a standard deck of 52 playing cards, what is the probability of
drawing an ACE or a KING in a single draw of one card from the deck?
❖Find probability of drawing an ACE 𝑃 𝐴𝐶𝐸 ∪ 𝐾𝐼𝑁𝐺 = 𝑃𝐴𝐶𝐸 + 𝑃𝐾𝐼𝑁𝐺
card and probability of drawing a
face card 𝑃 𝐴𝐶𝐸 ∪ 𝐾𝐼𝑁𝐺 =
4
+
4
52 52

❖Number of ACE cards: 4 (♥, ♦, ♣, ♠)

8
PACE = 4/52 𝑃 𝐴𝐶𝐸 ∪ 𝐾𝐼𝑁𝐺 =
52

𝟐
❖Number of KING cards: 4 (♥, ♦, ♣, ♠) 𝑷 𝑨𝑪𝑬 ∪ 𝑲𝑰𝑵𝑮 =
𝟏𝟑
PKING = 4/52
 PROBABILITY OF MUTUALLY
EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
Example #3:
➢Find the probability of drawing a number 2 or a Face card in a single
draw from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards.
❖Find probability of drawing a number 2
card and probability of drawing a face 𝑃 2 ∪ 𝐹𝐴𝐶𝐸 = 𝑃2 + 𝑃𝐹𝐴𝐶𝐸
card
4 12
❖Number of #2 cards: 4 (♥, ♦, ♣, ♠) 𝑃 2 ∪ 𝐹𝐴𝐶𝐸 = +
52 52
P2 = 4/52
16
❖Number of Face cards: 𝑃 2 ∪ 𝐹𝐴𝐶𝐸 =
52
12 (4 Jacks, 4 Queens, 4 Kings) (♥, ♦, ♣,
♠) 𝟒
𝑷 𝟐 ∪ 𝑭𝑨𝑪𝑬 =
PFACE = 12/52 𝟏𝟑
 PROBABILITY OF MUTUALLY
EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
Example #4:
➢The probabilities that a student will receive an A, B, C, D and E grade
are 0.35, 0.30, 0.20, 0.10 and 0.05 respectively. What is the probability
that a student will receive at least a C grade?
The event of having at least a ‘C’ grades are either A grade, B, grade,
C grade

𝑃𝑎𝑡𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝐶 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 + 𝑃(𝐶)

𝑃𝑎𝑡𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝐶 = 0.35 + 0.30 + 0.20

𝑷𝒂𝒕𝒍𝒆𝒂𝒔𝒕 𝑪 = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟓
 PROBABILITY OF MUTUALLY
EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
Example #5:
➢Roll a pair of dice once. What is the probability of rolling a sum
greater than 8.
The possible sums that are greater than 8 are: 𝑃 = 𝑃9 + 𝑃10 + 𝑃11 + 𝑃12
> 8
9, 10, 11, 12
4 3 2 1
𝑃>8= + + +
Possible outcomes of forming a sum of 9: 36 36 36 36
(3+6), (4+5), (5+4), (6+3)
P9 = 4/36 10
𝑃>8=
36
Possible outcomes of forming a sum of 10:
(4+6), (5+5), (6+4) 𝟓
P10 = 3/36 𝑷>𝟖=
𝟏𝟖
Possible outcomes of forming a sum of 11:
(5+6), (6+5)
P11 = 2/36

Possible outcomes of forming a sum of 12:

(6+6)
P12 = 1/36
 PROBABILITY OF INCLUSIVE EVENTS

• Two or more events are said to be inclusive, when one or the

other or both can occur. In other words, two events are said to
be inclusive if they have a common outcome.

𝑃 𝐴 𝑜𝑟 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)

𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐵)
 PROBABILITY OF INCLUSIVE EVENTS
Example #1:
➢Find the probability of drawing a club or a face card in a single draw
from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards.
Find probability of drawing an CLUB, probability of
drawing a face card and drawing a face of club card 𝑃 𝐶𝐿𝑈𝐵 ∪ 𝐹𝐴𝐶𝐸 = 𝑃𝐶𝐿𝑈𝐵 + 𝑃𝐹𝐴𝐶𝐸 − 𝑃𝐶𝐿𝑈𝐵 &𝐹𝐴𝐶𝐸

Number of CLUB cards: 13 (ACE to KING) 13 12 3

PCLUB = 13/52 𝑃 𝐶𝐿𝑈𝐵 ∪ 𝐹𝐴𝐶𝐸 = + −
52 52 52
Number of Face cards: 22
12 (4 Jacks, 4 Queens, 4 Kings) (♥, ♦, ♣, ♠) 𝑃 𝐶𝐿𝑈𝐵 ∪ 𝐹𝐴𝐶𝐸 =
52
PFACE = 12/52
𝟏𝟏
Number of “face of club” cards: 𝑷 𝑪𝑳𝑼𝑩 ∪ 𝑭𝑨𝑪𝑬 =
3 (♣Jack, ♣Queen, ♣King) 𝟐𝟔
PCLUB&FACE = 3/52
 PROBABILITY OF INCLUSIVE EVENTS
Example #2:
➢Find the probability of drawing a club or a number card in a single
draw from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards.
Find probability of drawing an CLUB, probability of
drawing a face card and drawing a face of club card
𝑃 𝐶𝐿𝑈𝐵 ∪ 𝑁𝑈𝑀𝐵𝐸𝑅 = 𝑃𝐶𝐿𝑈𝐵 + 𝑃𝑁𝑈𝑀𝐵𝐸𝑅 − 𝑃𝐶𝐿𝑈𝐵&𝑁𝑈𝑀𝐵𝐸𝑅
Number of CLUB cards: 13
PCLUB = 13/52 13 36 9
𝑃 𝐶𝐿𝑈𝐵 ∪ 𝑁𝑈𝑀𝐵𝐸𝑅 = + −
52 52 52
Number of number cards:
36 (9♥, 9♦, 9♣, 9♠) 40
PNUMBER = 36/52 𝑃 𝐶𝐿𝑈𝐵 ∪ 𝑁𝑈𝑀𝐵𝐸𝑅 =
52
Number of numbers of club cards:
9 (2 to 10) 𝟏𝟎
𝑷 𝑪𝑳𝑼𝑩 ∪ 𝑵𝑼𝑴𝑩𝑬𝑹 =
PCLUB&NUMBER = 9/52 𝟏𝟑
 PROBABILITY OF INCLUSIVE EVENTS
Example #3:
➢Find the probability of drawing a heart or a face card in a single draw
from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards.
Find probability of drawing an HEART, probability
of drawing a face card and drawing a face of club
card
𝑃 𝐻𝐸𝐴𝑅𝑇 ∪ 𝐹𝐴𝐶𝐸 = 𝑃𝐻𝐸𝐴𝑅𝑇 + 𝑃𝐹𝐴𝐶𝐸 − 𝑃𝐻𝐸𝐴𝑅𝑇&𝐹𝐴𝐶𝐸
Number of HEART cards: 13 (ACE to KING) 13 12 3
𝑃 𝐻𝐸𝐴𝑅𝑇 ∪ 𝐹𝐴𝐶𝐸 = + −
PHEART = 13/52 52 52 52

Number of Face cards: 22

𝑃 𝐻𝐸𝐴𝑅𝑇 ∪ 𝐹𝐴𝐶𝐸 =
12 (4 Jacks, 4 Queens, 4 Kings) (♥, ♦, ♣, ♠) 52
PFACE = 12/52
𝟏𝟏
𝑷 𝑯𝑬𝑨𝑹𝑻 ∪ 𝑭𝑨𝑪𝑬 =
Number of “face of heart” cards: 𝟐𝟔
3 (♣Jack, ♣Queen, ♣King)
PHEART&FACE = 3/52
 PROBABILITY OF INDEPENDENT EVENTS
• Two events are independent if the occurrence or non-occurrence of
one has no effect on the probability of the occurrence of the other.

𝑃 𝐴𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴
𝑃 𝐴&𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴

The notation “|” is read as “given”

Multiplication Rule of Probability (Independent Events)

• The probability that a set of independent events will happen is the
product of their separate probabilities.
𝑃 = 𝑃 𝐴 ⋅ 𝑃 𝐵 ⋅ 𝑃 𝐶 ⋅ … ⋅ 𝑃(𝑁)
 PROBABILITY OF INDEPENDENT EVENTS
• Example #1:
➢An urn contains 6 red marbles and 4 black marbles. Two marbles are
drawn with replacement from the urn. What is the probability that
both of the marbles are black?

LET: 𝑃 𝐴&𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ⋅ 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴

A – event that the first marble is black 4 4
B – event that the second marble is 𝑃 𝐴&𝐵 = ⋅
10 10
black
16
Probability of A(1st draw): 𝑃 𝐴&𝐵 =
100
P(A) = 4/10
𝟒
Probability of B|A(2nd draw): 𝑷 𝑨&𝑩 =
𝟐𝟓
P(B|A) = 4/10
 PROBABILITY OF INDEPENDENT EVENTS
• Example #2:
➢An urn contains 6 red marbles and 4 black marbles. Two marbles are
drawn in succession with replacement from the urn. What is the
probability that the 1st marble is red and the 2nd marble is black?

LET:
𝑃 𝑅&𝐵 = 𝑃 𝑅 ⋅ 𝑃 𝐵|𝑅
R – event that the first marble is red
6 4
B – event that the second marble is 𝑃 𝑅&𝐵 = ⋅
10 10
black
24
𝑃 𝑅&𝐵 =
100
Probability of R(1st draw):
P(R) = 6/10 𝑷 𝑹&𝑩 =
𝟔
𝟐𝟓

Probability of B|R(2nd draw):

P(B|R) = 4/10
 PROBABILITY OF INDEPENDENT EVENTS
• Example #3:
➢An urn contains 5 red, 7 white, and 10 blue balls. If three balls are
drawn in succession with replacement, find the probability that the
balls drawn are in the order blue, white, and red.

LET: 𝑃 𝐵𝑊𝑅 = 𝑃 𝐵 ⋅ 𝑃 𝑊|𝐵 ⋅ 𝑃(𝑅|𝐵𝑊)

B – event that the first ball is blue 10 7 5
W – event that the second ball is white 𝑃 𝐵𝑊𝑅 = ⋅ ⋅
22 22 22
R – event that the third ball is red
𝟏𝟕𝟓
Probability of B(1st draw): 𝑷 𝑩𝑾𝑹 = = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟑𝟐𝟖𝟕
𝟓𝟑𝟐𝟒
P(B) = 10/22

Probability of W|B(2nd draw):

P(W|B) = 7/22

Probability of R|BW(3rd draw):

P(R|BW) = 5/22
 PROBABILITY OF INDEPENDENT EVENTS
• Example #4:
➢An urn contains 8 red, 5 white, and 10 blue balls. If three balls are
drawn in succession with replacement, find the probability that the
balls drawn are in the order blue, blue, and red.
LET:
B – event that the first ball is blue 𝑃 𝐵𝐵′𝑅 = 𝑃 𝐵 ⋅ 𝑃 𝐵′|𝐵 ⋅ 𝑃(𝑅|𝐵𝐵′)
B’ – event that the second ball is blue
10 10 8
R – event that the third ball is red 𝑃 𝐵𝐵′𝑅 = ⋅ ⋅
23 23 23
Probability of B(1st draw): 𝑷 𝑩𝑩′𝑹 = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟔𝟓𝟕𝟓
P(B) = 10/23

Probability of B’|B(2nd draw):

P(B’|B) = 10/23

Probability of R|BW(3rd draw):

P(R|BB’) = 8/23
 PROBABILITY OF DEPENDENT EVENTS
• Two events are dependent if the occurrence or non-
occurrence of one has effect on the probability of the
occurrence of the other.

𝑃 𝐴𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵/𝐴
𝑃 𝐴&𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵/𝐴
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 𝑃 𝐵/𝐴

Multiplication Rule of Probability (Dependent Events)

• The probability that a set of dependent events will happen is
the product of their separate probabilities.
𝑃 = 𝑃 𝐴 ⋅ 𝑃 𝐵 ⋅ 𝑃 𝐶 ⋅ … ⋅ 𝑃(𝑁)
 PROBABILITY OF DEPENDENT EVENTS
• Example #1:
➢An urn contains 6 red marbles and 4 black marbles. Two marbles are
drawn without replacement from the urn. What is the probability that
both of the marbles are black?
LET:
𝑃 𝐴&𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 ⋅ 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴
A – event that the first marble is black
4 3
B – event that the second marble is 𝑃 𝐴&𝐵 = ⋅
10 9
black
12
𝑃 𝐴&𝐵 =
Probability of A(1st draw): 90
P(A) = 4/10 𝟐
𝑷 𝑨&𝑩 =
𝟏𝟓
Probability of B|A(2nd draw):
P(B|A) = 3/9
 PROBABILITY OF DEPENDENT EVENTS
• Example #2:
➢An urn contains 6 red marbles and 4 black marbles. Two marbles are
drawn in succession without replacement from the urn. What is the
probability that the 1st marble is red and the 2nd marble is black?
LET:
R – event that the first marble is red 𝑃 𝑅&𝐵 = 𝑃 𝑅 ⋅ 𝑃 𝐵|𝑅
B – event that the second marble is 𝑃 𝑅&𝐵 =
6 4
⋅
black 10 9

24
Probability of R(1st draw): 𝑃 𝑅&𝐵 =
90
P(R) = 6/10
𝟒
𝑷 𝑹&𝑩 =
𝟏𝟓
Probability of B|R(2nd draw):
P(B|R) = 4/9
 PROBABILITY OF DEPENDENT EVENTS
• Example #3:
➢An urn contains 5 red, 7 white, and 10 blue balls. If three balls are
drawn in succession without replacement, find the probability that the
balls drawn are in the order blue, white, and red.
LET:
B – event that the first ball is blue
W – event that the second ball is white 𝑃 𝐵𝑊𝑅 = 𝑃 𝐵 ⋅ 𝑃 𝑊|𝐵 ⋅ 𝑃(𝑅|𝐵𝑊)
R – event that the third ball is red
10 7 5
𝑃 𝐵𝑊𝑅 = ⋅ ⋅
Probability of B(1st draw): 22 21 20
P(B) = 10/22
𝟓
Probability of W|B(2nd draw): 𝑷 𝑩𝑾𝑹 =
P(W|B) = 7/21
𝟏𝟑𝟐

Probability of R|BW(3rd draw):

P(R|BW) = 5/20
 PROBABILITY OF DEPENDENT EVENTS
• Example #4:
➢An urn contains 8 red, 5 white, and 10 blue balls. If three balls are drawn
in succession without replacement, find the probability that the balls
drawn are in the order blue, blue, and red.
LET:
B – event that the first ball is blue 𝑃 𝐵𝐵′𝑅 = 𝑃 𝐵 ⋅ 𝑃 𝐵′|𝐵 ⋅ 𝑃(𝑅|𝐵𝐵′)
B’ – event that the second ball is blue
R – event that the third ball is red 10 9 8
𝑃 𝐵𝐵′𝑅 = ⋅ ⋅
23 22 21
Probability of B(1st draw):
𝟏𝟐𝟎
P(B) = 10/23 𝑷 𝑩𝑩′𝑹 = = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟔𝟕𝟕𝟔
𝟏𝟕𝟕𝟏
Probability of B’|B(2nd draw):
P(B’|B) = 9/22

Probability of R|BW(3rd draw):

P(R|BB’) = 8/21
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

• Given two events, A and B, if the probability of event B is

affected of the occurrence of event A, then the probability of
event B is said to be conditional to that of event A. In general,
the condition A occurs reduces the entire sample space to the
sample space of A. Mathematically,

𝑃(𝐴&𝐵)
𝑃 𝐵|𝐴 =
𝑃(𝐴)
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
• Example #1:
➢Roll a die once. Find the probability that a number less than 4
will come out given that the roll resulted to an odd number.

Probability of showing <4 & ODD: 𝑃(< 4&𝑂𝐷𝐷)

𝑃 < 4|𝑂𝐷𝐷 =
(1,3) 𝑃(𝑂𝐷𝐷)
P(<4&ODD) = 2/6
2
Probability of showing ODD: (1, 3, 5) 6
𝑃 < 4|𝑂𝐷𝐷 = 3
P(ODD) = 3/6
6

𝟐
𝑷 < 𝟒|𝑶𝑫𝑫 =
𝟑
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
• Example #2:
➢Find the probability that a number less than 5 will result in a single toss
of a die given that the toss resulted is an even number.

Probability of showing <5 & EVEN: 𝑃(< 5&𝐸𝑉𝐸𝑁)

𝑃 < 5|𝐸𝑉𝐸𝑁 =
(2,4) 𝑃(𝐸𝑉𝐸𝑁)
P(<5&EVEN) = 2/6
2
6
Probability of showing EVEN: (2, 4, 6) 𝑃 < 5|𝐸𝑉𝐸𝑁 = 3
P(EVEN) = 3/6 6

𝟐
𝑷 < 𝟓|𝑬𝑽𝑬𝑵 =
𝟑
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
• Example #3:
➢In the House of Representatives, a certain committee is composed of six
LP’s and five UNA’s. Three of the LP’s are men, and three of the UNA’s
are men. If a man is chosen for chairman, what is the probability that he
is an LP?

Probability of showing LP & MAN: 𝑃(𝑀𝐴𝑁&𝐿𝑃)

𝑃 𝐿𝑃|𝑀𝐴𝑁 =
3 MEN in LP and the committee is 𝑃(𝑀𝐴𝑁)
composed of 11 individuals 3
P(LP&MAN) = 3/11
𝑃 𝐿𝑃|𝑀𝐴𝑁 = 11 6
Probability of showing MAN: 11
There’s a total of 6 men in the
committee 𝟏
𝑷 𝑳𝑷|𝑴𝑨𝑵 =
P(MAN) = 6/11 𝟐
 BAYES’ THEOREM

• (Also known as Bayes’ Rule) is a useful tool for calculating

conditional probabilities.
• Let E1, E2, …, En be a set of mutually exclusive events that
together form the sample space S. Let X be any event from
sample space, such that P(X)>0. Then,

𝑃 𝐸1 ⋅ 𝑃(𝑋|𝐸1)
𝑃(𝐸1|𝑋) =
𝑃 𝐸1 𝑃 𝑋 𝐸1 + 𝑃 𝐸2 𝑃 𝑋 𝐸2 + ⋯ + 𝑃 𝐸𝑛 𝑃(𝑋|𝐸𝑛)
BAYES’ THEOREM
Example #1:
➢In a certain college, 5% of the men and 2% of the women took
engineering. Furthermore, 60% of the students are men. Now if a
student is selected at random and is found to be an engineering
student, what is the probability that the student is man?
𝑃(𝑀&𝐸)
𝑃 𝑀|𝐸 =
𝑃(𝐸)
P(M) = 0.60 𝑃 𝑀 𝑃(𝐸|𝑀)
P(E|M) = 0.05 𝑃 𝑀|𝐸 =
𝑃 𝑀 𝑃(𝐸|𝑀) + 𝑃 𝑊 𝑃(𝐸|𝑊)

0.60 ⋅ 0.05
P(W) = 0.40 𝑃 𝑀|𝐸 =
(0.60 ⋅ 0.05) + (0.40 ⋅ 0.02)
P(E|W) = 0.02
𝟏𝟓
𝑷 𝑴|𝑬 = = 𝟎. 𝟕𝟖𝟗𝟓
𝟏𝟗
BAYES’ THEOREM
Example #2:
➢A committee is composed of six Democrats and five Republicans. Three
of the Democrats are men, and 3 of the Republicans are men. If a man is
selected for chairman, what is the probability that he is a Republican?
𝑃(𝑀&𝑅)
𝑃 𝑅|𝑀 =
P(R) = 5/11 𝑃(𝑀)

P(M|R) = 3/5 𝑃 𝑅|𝑀 =

𝑃 𝑅 𝑃(𝑀|𝑅)
𝑃 𝑅 𝑃(𝑀|𝑅) + 𝑃 𝐷 𝑃(𝑀|𝐷)

P(D) = 6/11 5 3
11×5
P(M|D) = 3/6 𝑃 𝑅|𝑀 =
(
5 3 6 3
× )+( × )
11 5 11 6

𝟏
𝑷 𝑹|𝑴 =
𝟐
BAYES’ THEOREM
Example #3:
➢In the House of Representatives, a certain committee is
composed of six LP’s and five UNA’s. Three of the LP’s are men,
and three of the UNA’s are men. If a man is chosen for
chairman, what is the probability that he is an LP?
BAYES’ THEOREM
Example #4:
➢In the recently concluded board examination, 50%, 30%, and 20% of
the total number of examinees came from Luzon, Visayas, and
Mindanao, respectively. The percentage of passers from Luzon, Visayas,
and Mindanao are 65%, 45%, and 50%, respectively. If a student is
selected at random is found to be a passer, what is the probability that
the student is from Visayas?
 SAMPLE PROBLEMS
Example #1:
➢A class have 12 boys and 4 girls. If three students are selected at
random from class, what is the probability p that they are all boys?
 SAMPLE PROBLEMS
Example #2:
➢In an EDA Class, 70% of the students failed Quiz 1, 50% failed Quiz 2,
and 40% of the students failed both quizzes. A student is selected in
random.
(1) If he failed quiz 2, what is the probability that he failed quiz 1?
(2) If he failed quiz 1, what is the probability that he failed quiz 2?
(3) What is the probability that he failed quiz 1 or quiz 2?
 SAMPLE PROBLEMS
Example #3:
➢Two men, and three women are in a chess tournament. Those of the
same sex have equal probabilities of winning, but each man is twice as
likely to win as any woman. (1) Find the probability that one of them
wins the tournament. (2) If one man and woman are married, find the
probability that one of them wins the tournament.
 SAMPLE PROBLEMS
Example #4:
➢A man is dealt 4 spade cards from ordinary deck of 52 cards. If he is
given three more cards, find the probability p that at least one of the
additional cards is also a spade.
ANY QUESTIONS?