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Mathematics
Quarter 4 – Module 4:
Probability and Predicting
Outcome
Mathematics – Grade 6
Quarter 4 – Module 4: Probability and Predicting Outcome
First Edition, 2020

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Mathematics
Quarter 4 – Module 4:
Probability and Predicting
Outcome
Introductory Message
For the facilitator:
As a facilitator, you are expected to orient the learners on how to use
this module. You also need to keep track of the learners' progress while
allowing them to manage their own learning at home. Furthermore, you are
expected to encourage and assist the learners as they do the tasks included
in the module.

For the learner:

As a learner, you must learn to become responsible of your own
learning. Take time to read, understand, and perform the different activities
in the module.
As you go through the different activities of this module be reminded of
the following:
1. Use the module with care. Do not put unnecessary mark/s on any part
of the module. Use a separate sheet of paper in answering the exercises.
2. Don’t forget to answer Let Us Try before moving on to the other
activities.
3. Read the instructions carefully before doing each task.
4. Observe honesty and integrity in doing the tasks and checking your
answers.
5. Finish the task at hand before proceeding to the next.
6. Return this module to your teacher/facilitator once you are done.
If you encounter any difficulty in answering the tasks in this module,
do not hesitate to consult your teacher or facilitator. Always bear in mind that
you are not alone. We hope that through this material, you will experience
meaningful learning and gain deep understanding of the relevant
competencies. You can do it!

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 Let Us Learn

Good day dear learner! Welcome to another exciting activity

in Math. I hope you are very eager to learn in today’s lesson. Before
we begin, do all the preliminaries and then set back relax and we
are now ready to engage in our new lesson.
Are you ready for our activities today? We are going to learn
about probability and predicting outcome. We have prepared
activities that will help you learn as we go on this journey.
After going through this module, you are expected to:
1. Describe the meaning of probability such as 50% chance of
rain and one in a million chance of winning M5SP-IVg-19

Let Us Try

Direction: Read the following statements. Write 1 if the

situation/s can considered as impossible to happen, 2 if unlikely
to happen, 3 if equally to happen, 4 if likely to happen or 5 if
certain to happen. Write the answer before the number.

_____1. When one is seated, he is rested.

_____2. When a man sleeps, he snores.
_____3. A man in the bathroom always takes a bath.
_____4. Fever indicates that one is sick.
_____5. When the cloud is low and dark, it means it will rain.

Let Us Study

Probability will help us decide how often something is likely

to happen, but it will never help you exactly when that event will
happen unless the probability is 0 (it will happen0 or 1 (it will
surely happen).

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 The event is unlikely to happen when its probability is closer
to 0, like winning a jackpot in a lottery where you only have one in
a million chance of winning. The most likely to happen an event is,
the closer its probability.
Ø Less probable than not

• 0-0.0-0% = Impossible to happen

Example:
It will snow tomorrow in the Philippines.
- Tropical countries does not experience snow since
Philippines belongs to a tropical country, therefore it is
impossible for this country to experience snow.

!
• "
- 0.25-25% = Unlikely to happen

Example:
The likelihood that 2 people in any group of 15 will have the
same birthday is about 8%.
- Matching birthdays in a group of 15 is most unlikely (but
not impossible) since the probability is closer to 0%

!
• #
- 0.50-50%=As likely or as unlikely or equally to happen

Example:
The weather forecaster says there is a 50% chance of rain
today.
- This means that the chance to rain today is as likely at it
is unlikely. It means that it will rain or it will not rain
today.
-
Ø More probable than not

$
• "
-0.75-75% = Likely to happen

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 Example:
The sports’ analyst says that Manny Pacquiao has 75%
chance of winning his fight.
- This means that Manny Pacquiao is likely to win his fight.
It does not mean that he will win the fight. So, if he does
not win, don’t say the analyst is wrong.

• 1.0-100% = Certain to happen

Example:
The sun will rise tomorrow.
- It is certain that the sun will rise everyday. So, the
probability of the sun to rise tomorrow is 100%

Let Us Practice

Directions: Which of the following situations can be

considered as unlikely to happen, likely to happen, equally
likely to happen, impossible to happen, or certain to
happen? Write your answer on the blank before each
number.
______ 1. The sun sets in the east.

______ 2. A pregnant woman with a big and round stomach may

have a baby girl.

______ 3. An earthquake occurred. There will be a tsunami.

______ 4. The teacher is beautiful, so she is a very good teacher.

______ 5. The jeepney that runs is likely to meet an accident.

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 Let Us Practice More

Direction: Which of the following situations can be considered as

unlikely to happen, likely to happen, equally to happen, impossible
to happen, or certain to happen. Write the answer before each
number.
_________________ 1. Reading books makes a man wiser.
_________________ 2. When mother is loving and caring to her
children, she loves her family.
_________________ 3. When one is active in the class recitation, he
surely passes in the written test.
_________________ 4. Dressing up nicely means one has taken a
bath.
_________________ 5. Blowing hard one’s nose is breaking one’s
eardrum.

Let Us Remember

• Probability is used to describe how likely or unlikely it is

that something will happen. It is the number that we use to
describe and express that likelihood.
• The event is unlikely to happen when its probability is
closer to 0.
• The event is most likely to happen if its probability is closer
to 1.
• As likely as unlikely events have the same chance of
happening.
• An event that is certain must happen.
• An impossible event cannot happen.

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 Let Us Assess

A. Directions: Which of the following situations can be considered

as unlikely to happen, likely to happen, equally likely to
happen, impossible to happen, or certain to happen? Write
your answer on the blank before each number.
________1. Mark is thrifty. He will be rich someday.
________2. When a pupil is absent, he is sick.
________3. People living in the slum areas are poor.
________4. When the teacher is out, the class is noisy.
________5. Students prefer to have holidays than school
days.

B. Classify the situation based on the scale:

0 = impossible to happen ¾= likely to happen
¼ = unlikely to happen 1 = certain to happen
½ = equally to happen

_____ 6. Bats are birds.

_____ 7. Fish can live on land.
_____ 8. A good reader understands well.
_____ 9. A rich man is always happy.
_____ 10. A crocodile always lives on water.

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 Let Us Enhance

Direction: Predict simply on the following situations. Write

L likely to happen, U unlikely to happen, E equally likely to
happen, I impossible to happen, or C certain to happen.

______1. Cleaning ones ear with cotton buds often makes hearing
clear.
______2. Not all gold glitters.
______3. When one is in pensive mood, he thinks deeply.
______4. Honesty is the best policy.
______5. When one stares at nothing, he has depression.

Let Us Reflect

There are times that we have to make choices in life. There

are times when we will face a difficult decision on a certain
situation. We use probability in daily life to make decisions when
you don’t know for sure what the outcome will be. Most of the
times, we won’t perform actual probability problems, but we’ll use
subjective probability to make judgment calls and determine the
best course of action.

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Let Us Enhance Let Us Assess
A. A.
1. U 1. Likely to happen
2. C 2. Unlikely to happen
3. L 3. Unlikely to happen
4. C 4. Likely to happen
5. L 5. Likely to happen
B.
6. 0
7. 0
8. ¾
9. ½
10. ½
Let Us Practice More Let Us Practice Let Us Try
1. Likely to happen 1. Impossible to happen 1. 2
2. Certain to happen 2. Equally to happen 2. 3
3. Equally to happen 3. Unlikely to happen 3. 2
4. Likely to happen 4. Unlikely to happen 4. 5
5. Likely to happen 5. Unlikely to happen 5. 2
Answer Key
 References

Burgos, J. Perez, M. Placer, D. et al. 2016. 21st Century

Mathletes 6 p.334-350, Quezon City: Vibal Group

Riel, T. Butaran, R. Camitan, A et al. 2013. Number Smart 6

p.566-572, Pasay City: Phoenix Publishing

Lesson Guides in Elementary Mathematics Grade 6 p.347-349

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For inquiries or feedback, please write or call:

Department of Education – Davao City Division

Elpidio Quirino Ave., Poblacion District, Davao City, 8000 Davao del Sur

Telefax: (082) 224-3274, (082) 222-1672

E-mail Address: [email protected]