Stat 101: Elementary Statistics

Exercises for Probability (ANSWER KEY)

Specifying the Sample Space

Specify a sample space for the following random experiments:
1. Rolling a die three times
You can specify this using the Rule Method since specifying it using the Roster Method would be too tedious.
Ω = {(𝑎, 𝑏, 𝑐)|𝑎, 𝑏, 𝑐 ∈ {1,2,3,4,5,6}}
2. Tossing a coin until “heads” appears
You can specify these in three ways:
a. Ω = {𝐻, 𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇𝐻 … }
b. Ω = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, … } You count the number of toss until “heads” appears.
c. Ω = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, … } You count the number of “tails” until “heads” appears.
3. Selecting a person at random and observing his favorite color in the rainbow
Ω = {𝑅𝑒𝑑, 𝑂𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒, 𝑌𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤, 𝐺𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑛, 𝐵𝑙𝑢𝑒, 𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑔𝑜, 𝑉𝑖𝑜𝑙𝑒𝑡}
4. Selecting a student at random and observing his grade in the exam (measured in percentage)
Since this is continuous, you cannot use roster method in listing all the possible outcomes. Take note that we
must include outcomes such as 0.1%, 0.0005%, 45.6333%. Listing all of them would take you a lifetime. This is
why for continuous variables such as this, we specify it using rule method.
Ω = {𝑥|𝑥 ∈ [0,100]}
5. Counting the number of car accidents in a randomly selected day along the North Luzon Expressway.
You can specify it using the roster method since this is not continuous which means that there are no outcomes
such as 0.5 accidents.
Ω = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, … }

Composition of Events
1. A Japanese industry is considering on setting up plants in the Philippines. We define the following events:
L = event of putting up a plant in Luzon
V = event of putting up a plant in Visayas
M = event of putting up a plant in Mindanao
Express the following events as a composition of the events L, V, M.
a. event of putting up plants both in Luzon and in Visayas
𝐿 ∩ 𝑉 *keyword: “and” → intersection
b. event of putting up a plant in Luzon but not in Visayas
𝐿 ∩ 𝑉 𝑐 *keyword: “but not” → “and not” → intersection and complement
c. event of not putting a plant in Luzon
𝐿𝑐

d. event of putting up plants in at least one of the three subdivisions, Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao.
𝐿∪𝑉∪𝑀 *keyword: “at least one” → union
e. event of putting up plants in all 3 geographic subdivisions
𝐿∩𝑉∩𝑀 *keyword: “all” → intersection
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 2. Three new antivirus software are being developed to target and clean computer virus. We then define the
following events:
A = event that Antivirus A detects the virus
B = event that Antivirus B detects the virus
C = event that Antivirus C detects the virus
Express the following events in terms of A, B, and C:
a. event where Antivirus A did not detect the virus
𝐴𝑐
b. event where Antivirus B and C detects the virus
𝐵 ∩ 𝐶 *keyword: “and” → intersection
c. event where all three Antivirus detect the virus
𝐴∩𝐵∩𝐶 *keyword: “all” → intersection
d. event where Antivirus A detects the virus but not Antivirus B
𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 *keyword: “but not” → “and not” → intersection and complement
e. event where at least one of Antivirus B or C detects the virus
𝐵 ∪ 𝐶 *keyword: “at least one” “or” → union

3. Consider the random experiment of tossing a fair coin 4 times.

a. Specify the sample space.
Ω = {𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝑇𝑇𝑇,
𝑇𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝑇𝑇 𝑇𝑇𝐻𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝑇𝑇}
b. Let A be the event of observing heads on the first 2 tosses. What are the elements of A?
𝐴 = {𝐻𝐻𝐻𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝐻𝐻𝑇𝑇}
c. Let B be the event of observing exactly two heads. What are the elements of B?
𝐵 = {𝐻𝐻𝑇𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝐻𝑇, 𝐻𝑇𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝐻𝐻𝑇, 𝑇𝐻𝑇𝐻, 𝑇𝑇𝐻𝐻}
d. Suppose you tossed a fair coin 4 times and observed HHTT. Did A occur? Did B occur? Did A ∪ B occur?
Did A ∩ B occur?
A occurred since HHTT is in A.
B occurred since HHTT is in B.
Since at least one of A and B occurred, A ∪ B also occurred.
Since both A and B occurred, A ∩ B also occurred.
e. Are A and B mutually exclusive?
NO. They are not mutually exclusive since 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = {𝐻𝐻𝑇𝑇} ≠ ∅.

Rules of Counting
1. A man has four shirts. One is red, the others are yellow, white, and green. He has three pairs of pants. One is
red, the others are white and blue. How many ways can he match his shirts with his pants?
You can view it as experiment in two stages: 1st stage is choosing the shirt and 2nd stage would be choosing
the pants. There are 4 possible outcomes in the 1st stage and 3 possible outcomes in the 2nd stage.
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 4 × 3 = 12
There are a total of 12 possible combinations of shirts and pants. If you want to list it down, that would be:

red shirt & red pants yellow shirt & red pants white shirt & red pants green shirt & red pants
red shirt & white pants yellow shirt & white pants white shirt & white pants green shirt & white pants
red shirt & blue pants yellow shirt & blue pants white shirt & blue pants green shirt & blue pants

2. In a Science exam, a student has a choice of 8 questions out of 10. How many ways can a student choose a set
of 8 questions if she chooses arbitrarily?
Since you are choosing 8 questions out of 10, all these questions should be DISTINCT and order DOES NOT
MATTER in this case (you are merely picking from a pool of questions). This leaves us with using
COMBINATION.
10 10! 10 ∗ 9 ∗ 8! 90
𝐶(10,8) = ( )= = = = 45
8 (10 − 8)! 8! 2! 8! 2
3. How many ways can we form a committee consisting of four members if we were to select them from the 15
officers of an organization?
Same with #3, we just choose four members from the 15 officers. These members should be distinct and order
does not matter. Hence, we use combination.
15 15! 15 ∗ 14 ∗ 13 ∗ 12 ∗ 11!
𝐶(15,4) = ( )= = = 1365
4 (15 − 4)! 4! 11! 4!
4. If a multiple choice test consists of 5 questions each with 4 possible answers of which only 1 is correct,
a. How many different ways can a student answer the 5 questions?
Think of this as working in 5 stages. There are four possible outcomes (A, B, C, D) for each stage. Take
note that, outcomes can be repeated.
4 × 4 × 4 × 4 × 4 = 45 = 1024
b. How many ways can a student answer all the 5 questions incorrectly?
Since only 1 is correct, these means that there are 3 possible outcomes (wrong answers) for each
stage.
3 × 3 × 3 × 3 × 3 = 35 = 243
c. If the student is choosing the answers at random, what is the probability of getting a score of 0?
Since the student is choosing an answer at random, we can use the classical probability. The
probability of getting a score of 0 is the same as the probability of getting all the 5 questions
incorrectly. Thus, if we let
A = event that the student answers all the 5 questions incorrectly (score of 0)
We have
𝑛(𝐴) 243
𝑃(𝐴) = = = 0.2373
𝑛(Ω) 1024

Event Composition Method

1. Danielle, a health worker, is studying the prevalence of certain diseases in a particular community. Based on
her previous studies, she came up with the following figures: 10% of the people in the community will contract
disease A sometime during their lifetime; 25% will contract disease B; and 5% will contract both diseases.
a. Define the basic events.
A = event that a person contracts disease A
B = event that a person contracts disease B
b. List down the given probabilities.
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 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.10 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.25
Since 5% will contract BOTH diseases, that would be
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.05
c. Find the probability that a randomly selected person from this community will contract:
i. At least one of the 2 diseases
We need to find 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵). Using the properties of probability, we have
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.10 + 0.25 − 0.05 = 0.30
ii. Disease B but not disease A
We need to find 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴𝑐 ). Using the properties of probability, we have
𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐴𝑐 ) = 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.25 − 0.05 = 0.20
In Venn diagram, we visualize it as:

A B
B 𝐴∩𝐵

iii. Exactly one of the 2 diseases

When you say EXACTLY ONE of the 2 diseases, that would be “Disease A but not disease B” or
“Disease B but not disease A”. Expressing it as a composition of events:
Disease A but not B → 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐
Disease B but not A → 𝐵 ∩ 𝐴𝑐
Joining the two, we have (𝑨 ∩ 𝑩𝒄 ) ∪ ( 𝑩 ∩ 𝑨𝒄 ). *It can be A only OR B only.
Visualizing it in Venn diagram, we have

B B
A A
Ω

Note that (𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ) and ( 𝐵 ∩ 𝐴𝑐 ) are MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE since their intersection is an

empty set ∅.
Recall: If A and B are mutually exclusive, then 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵).
Thus,
𝑃[(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ) ∪ ( 𝐵 ∩ 𝐴𝑐 )] = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ) + 𝑃( 𝐵 ∩ 𝐴𝑐 )
For 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ),
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ) = 𝑃(𝐴) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.10 − 0.05 = 0.05
We already know 𝑃( 𝐵 ∩ 𝐴𝑐 ) from the previous item. Combining the two, we have
𝑃[(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ) ∪ ( 𝐵 ∩ 𝐴𝑐 )] = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ) + 𝑃( 𝐵 ∩ 𝐴𝑐 ) = 0.05 + 0.20 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓
Another way to look at it is:

A B A B 𝐴∩𝐵
Ω

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 Thus, we have
𝑃[(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵𝑐 ) ∪ ( 𝐵 ∩ 𝐴𝑐 )] = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.30 − 0.05 = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟓

2. In a certain federal prison it is known that 2/3 of the inmates are under 25 years of age. It is also known that
3/5 of the inmates are male and the 5/8 of the inmates are female or 25 years of age or older.
a. Define the basic events.
A = Event that the prisoner is under 25 years old
M = Event that the prisoner is a male
b. List down the given probabilities.
2 3 5
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝑀) = 𝑃(𝐴𝑐 ∪ 𝑀𝑐 ) =
3 5 8
c. Determine the probability that a prisoner selected at random from this prison is female and at least
25 years old?
𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝑀𝑐 = event that the prisoner is female and at least 25 years old
1 2 5
𝑃(𝐴𝑐 ∩ 𝑀𝑐 ) = 𝑃(𝐴𝑐 ) + 𝑃(𝑀𝑐 ) − 𝑃(𝐴𝑐 ∪ 𝑀𝑐 ) = + − = 0.1083
3 5 8

Conditional Probability and Independence

1. The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is 0.83, the probability that it arrives on time
is 0.92, and the probability that it departs and arrives on time is 0.78.
Let D = event that the flight departs on time
A = event that the flight arrives on time
The given probabilities are:
𝑃(𝐷) = 0.83 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.92 𝑃(𝐷 ∩ 𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐷) = 0.78
a. Find the probability that a plane arrives on time given that it departed on time.
We must find: 𝑃(𝐴|𝐷). Note that the conditioning event is D.
Using the definition of conditional probability, we have
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐷) 0.78
𝑃(𝐴|𝐷) = = = 0.9398
𝑃(𝐷) 0.83
b. Find the probability that a plane departed on time given that it has arrived on time.
We must find: 𝑃(𝐷|𝐴). Note that the conditioning event is A.
Using the definition of conditional probability, we have
𝑃(𝐷 ∩ 𝐴) 0.78
𝑃(𝐷|𝐴) = = = 0.8478
𝑃(𝐴) 0.92
2. A movie critic feels that the probabilities that a certain movie will get an award for best actress is 0.18, for
best actor is 0.33, and at least one of these two awards is 0.40. Suppose it was just announced that the movie
won the best actor award, what is the probability that it will win the best actress award?
Let A = event that the movie will get an award for best actress
B = event that the movie will get an award for best actor
The given probabilities are:
𝑃(𝐴) = 0.18 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.33 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 0.40
However, to compute for conditional probability, we need 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵).
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 Recall: If A and B are events, then 𝑃(𝐴∪𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵).
Using algebraic manipulation, we have:
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
→ 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) [transpose 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)]
→ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) [transpose 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)]
Thus,
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.18 + 0.33 − 0.40 = 0.11
For the probability that it will win the best actress award given that it won best actor award, we have
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) 0.11
𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = = = 0.33
𝑃(𝐵) 0.33

3. A random sample of 200 adults is classified below according to sex and the highest level of education attained.
If a person is picked at random from this group, find the probability that the person

Male Female

Elementary 38 45

Secondary 28 50
College 22 17

To answer the questions, we must set up our probabilities and table first.

Male Female TOTAL

Elementary 38 45 83

Secondary 28 50 78
College 22 17 39
TOTAL 88 112 200

Let M = event that the person is Male

F = event that the person is Female
E = event that the person’s highest level of education is Elementary
S = event that the person’s highest level of education is Secondary
C = event that the person’s highest level of education is College

To set up the probabilities, we divide it by the total number of observations.

𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 88 112
𝑃(𝑀) = = 200 𝑃(𝐹) = 200
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝑜𝑏𝑠
83 78 39
𝑃(𝐸) = 200 𝑃(𝑆) = 200 𝑃(𝐶) = 200

The intersections are:

38 28 22
𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝐸) = 𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝑆) = 𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝐶) =
200 200 200
45 50 17
𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐸) = 200 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝑆) = 200 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐶) = 200

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 a. is a male, given that the person’s highest level of education attained is secondary education
Find 𝑃(𝑀|𝑆).

𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝑆) 28⁄200 28
𝑃(𝑀|𝑆) = = = = 0.3590
𝑃(𝑆) 78⁄ 78
200
b. does not have a college degree, given that the person is a female
Find 𝑃(𝐶 𝑐 |𝐹).

𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐶) 17⁄
𝑃(𝐶 𝑐 |𝐹) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐶|𝐹) = 1 − =1− 200 = 1 − 17 = 0.8482
𝑃(𝐹) 112⁄ 112
200

THERE IS A SHORTCUT BY JUST USING THE TABLE:

Since the conditioning event is “Secondary”, just look

Male Female TOTAL
at the “Secondary” section, and from that get the
Elementary 38 45 83 probability of “Male” in the “Secondary” section only.

Secondary 28 50 78 Thus, for 𝑃(𝑀|𝑆), we would have

𝑛𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝑀𝑎𝑙𝑒 & 𝑆𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑦 28
College 22 17 39 𝑃(𝑀|𝑆) = = 78 = 0.3590
𝑛𝑜.𝑜𝑓 𝑆𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑦

TOTAL 88 112 200

Since the conditioning event is “Female”, just look at the “Female” section, and from that
get the probability of “not College” (Elem + Secondary) in the “Female” section only.

Thus, for 𝑃(𝐶 𝑐 │𝐹)., we would have

𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝑁𝑂𝑇 𝐶𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑒𝑔𝑒 & 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 45 + 50 95
𝑃(𝐶 𝑐 |𝐹) = = = = 0.8482
𝑛𝑜. 𝑜𝑓 𝐹𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 112 112

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 4. A town has one fire engine and one ambulance available for emergencies. The probability that the fire engine
is available when needed is 0.98 and the probability that the ambulance is available when called is 0.92.
In the event of an injury resulting from a burning building and assuming that the availability of fire engine and
ambulance are independent of each other,
Let F = event that the fire engine is available
A = event that the ambulance is available
Note that events F and A are independent according to the problem.
The given probabilities are:
𝑃(𝐹) = 0.98 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.92
And since F and A are independent,
𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐹) ∗ 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.98 ∗ 0.92 = 0.9016
a. Find the probability that at least one of the ambulance and the fire engine will be available.
Find 𝑃(𝐹 ∪ 𝐴).
𝑃(𝐹 ∪ 𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐹) + 𝑃(𝐴) − 𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐴) = 0.98 + 0.92 − 0.9016 = 0.9984
b. Find the probability that a fire engine is available given that the ambulance is available.
Find 𝑃(𝐹|𝐴). However, they are independent. Thus,
𝑃(𝐹|𝐴) = 𝑃(𝐹) = 0.98

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