Consequence

Analysis:
Fire
Modelling
OBJECTIVES

Able to understand fundamentals of

industrial fires

Able to perform modeling and

consequence assessment on industrial
fires
Why should we
learn about
consequence
analysis
Let’s recall…

RISK Probability Consequence

FREQUENCY CONSEQUENCE
ANALYSIS ANALYSIS
Probabilistic model Fire and explosion
Leak frequency model modeling
Corrosion
Structural analysis
THE MOST COMMON CHEMICAL PLANT
ACCIDENTS
Chemical plant accidents follow typical patterns. It is important to study
these patterns in order to anticipate the types of accidents that will occur.
What causes
a fire
Fire
Fire is a process in which substances combine
chemically with oxygen from the air and typically
give out bright light, heat (exothermic), and
smoke.
Fuels
Liquids: gasoline, acetone, ether, pentane
Solids: plastics, wood dust, fibers, metal particles
Gases: acetylene, propane, carbon monoxide, hydrogen

Oxidizers
Gases: oxygen, fluorine, chlorine
Liquids: hydrogen peroxide, nitric acid, perchloric acid
Solids: metal peroxides, ammonium nitrite

Ignition sources
Sparks, flames, static electricity, heat
Fire Classifications
Pool Fire
Fire Ball
Jet Fire
Flash Fire
Probable
consequences
 How to measure
damage/consequences
due to fire

Heat flux, 𝑞 , (𝑊/𝑚 )

′ 2
Fire Models
 Calculation Procedures:

Pool Fire Burning rate

Pool fires usually appear in jet Maximum Surface Emitting Power

fuels and diesel oils, in
hydrocarbons (heavier than
hexane), glycols, oils and Actual Surface Emitting Power
hydraulic fluids.
For the calculation of the heat
flux, the shape of the flame is View Factor
considered cylindrical.

Heat Flux
Pool Fire
Burning rate
Burning rate
The burning rate, m΄ (𝒌𝒈/𝒎𝟐 𝒔), expresses
the rate with which the flammable
Maximum Surface Emitting material that forms the pool burns. In the
Power
case of a pool fire, the temperature of the
surface of the pool is very near the boiling
Actual Surface Emitting
Power point of the liquid fuel.

View Factor The burning rate can be calculated according to the

following methods:
a) Zabetakis-Burgess Method [Zabetakis & Burgess 1961],
Heat Flux b) Burgess-Strasser-Grumer Method [Burgess et al. 1961],
c) Mudan Method [Mudan 1985].
Pool Fire Zabetakis-Burgess Method
Burning rate 𝑚′ = 𝑚′ ∞ (1 − 𝑒 −𝑘𝛽𝐷 )

Maximum Surface Emitting

Power

Actual Surface Emitting

Power

View Factor

Heat Flux
Pool Fire Burgess-Strasser-Grumer Method
Burning rate
∆𝐻𝑐
𝑚′ = 𝜌𝐿 𝑐1
∆𝐻𝑣 + 𝐶𝑝 (𝑇𝑏 − 𝑇𝑎 )
Maximum Surface Emitting
Power

∆𝐻𝑐 (J/kg) and ∆𝐻𝑣 (J/kg) represent the heat of combustion

Actual Surface Emitting and the heat of vaporization, respectively,
Power 𝐶𝑝 (J/kgK) : the specific heat capacity of the fuel
𝜌𝐿 (𝑘𝑔/𝑚^3): the density of the liquid fuel at its boiling
temperature.
View Factor
𝑇𝑏 (𝐾), and 𝑇𝑎 (𝐾), represent the boiling temperature of the
fuel and the ambient temperature, respectively
𝑐1 = 1.27 𝑥 10−6 𝑚/𝑠
Heat Flux
This expression produces good results for the calculation of the burning rate of
hydrocarbons and liquid fuels in general, but it greatly underestimates the
burning rate of liquefied gases such as LNG and LPG.
Pool Fire Mudan Method
Burning rate
𝑐1 ∆𝐻𝑐
𝑚′ =
∆𝐻𝑣 + 𝐶𝑝 (𝑇𝑏 − 𝑇𝑎 )
Maximum Surface Emitting
Power

𝑐1 = 0.001 𝑘𝑔/𝑚2 𝑠
Actual Surface Emitting
Power

The above expression in comparison with the expression of Burgess,

View Factor Strasser and Grumer, gives a better representation of the burning rate of
liquefied gases, but predicts less accurately the burning rate of other fuels

Heat Flux
Exercise:
Calculate the burning rate of n-hexane in a pool fire of 10 m diameter.
The following data are available and compare the result with the given
figure!
Boiling temperature: 341.9 Κ
Ambient temperature: 298 Κ
Heat of combustion: 44,700 kJ/kg
Heat of vaporization: 450 kJ/kg
Specific heat capacity: 2.31 kJ/kg K
Liquid density: 616 kg/m3
Pool Fire Max SEP, 𝑆𝐸𝑃𝑚𝑎𝑥 (kW/m ) 2

Maximum Surface Emitting Power, SEPmax (kW/m2),

Burning rate expresses the emitting power from the flame’s surface if no
soot is present.

Maximum Surface Emitting 1

Power 𝑆𝐸𝑃𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 𝐹𝑠 𝑚′ ∆𝐻𝑐
𝐿
1+4
𝐷
Actual Surface Emitting
Power Fs: the radiation fraction (-) which represents the
fraction of the combustion energy radiated from
the flame temperature (see the provided Table)
View Factor
L: the mean flame length (m)
D: the pool diameter (m)
𝑚′: burning rate (kg/m2s)
Heat Flux
∆Hc: the heat of combustion (J/kg)
Pool Fire

Burning rate

Maximum Surface Emitting

Soot
Power

Actual Surface Emitting

Power

View Factor

Heat Flux
Pool Fire Radiation Fraction (Fs)

Burning rate

Maximum Surface Emitting

Power

Actual Surface Emitting

Power

View Factor

Heat Flux
Pool Fire Mean Flame Length (L (m))
Pritchard-Binding method
0.305
Burning rate 𝑚′
𝐿/𝐷 = 10.615 𝑢∗ −0.03
𝜌𝑎𝑖𝑟 𝑔 𝐷
Maximum Surface Emitting
Power where,
L: mean flame length (m)
Actual Surface Emitting D: pool diameter )m)
Power m’: burning rate (kg/m2s)
ρair: density of the air (kg/m3)
View Factor
g: acceleration due to gravity = 9.814 (m/s2)
u*: dimensionless wind velocity,
−1/3
𝑔 𝑚′ 𝐷
Heat Flux 𝑢∗ = 𝑢𝑤
𝜌𝑎𝑖𝑟
if u*<1 then u*=1
uw: wind velocity (m/s)
Exercise
Pool Fire Actual SEP, 𝑆𝐸𝑃𝑎𝑐𝑡 (kW/m ) 2

The Actual Surface Emitting Power, SEPact (kW/m2), takes

Burning rate into consideration the presence of soot and it is calculated as

Maximum Surface Emitting 𝑆𝐸𝑃𝑎𝑐𝑡 = 𝑆𝐸𝑃𝑚𝑎𝑥 1 − 𝑠 + 𝑆𝐸𝑃𝑠𝑜𝑜𝑡 𝑠

Power

Actual Surface Emitting Where,

Power SEPsoot: the surface emitting power of soot (kW/m2)
s: the surface fraction that is covered by soot (-)
View Factor

For oil products, s equals 80%, while SEPsoot=20kW/m2

[Hagglund & Person, 1976].
Heat Flux
In the case of fires of small diameter (1-2 m), where not much
smoke is formed, it can be assumed that SEPact=SEPmax
Pool Fire Actual SEP, 𝑆𝐸𝑃𝑎𝑐𝑡 (kW/m ) 2

Alternative methods:
Burning rate
Mudan-Croce method for Hydrocarbon Fuels Fires

Maximum Surface Emitting

Power 𝑆𝐸𝑃𝑎𝑐𝑡 = 140𝑒 −0.12𝐷 + 20(1 − 𝑒 −0.12𝐷 )

Actual Surface Emitting The equation is valid for large diameter pool fires caused by jet
Power plane fuel JP-4, benzene, kerosene, etc. The expression
produces good results for pool diameters well above 15 m.

Non-Hydrocarbon Fuel Fire Method

View Factor

𝑐3 𝑚′ ∆𝐻𝑐
𝑆𝐸𝑃𝑎𝑐𝑡 =
Heat Flux 1 + 72 𝑚′ 0.61
Where 𝑐3 = 0.35 and ∆𝐻𝑐 (𝑘𝐽/𝑘𝑔) is the heat combustion
Pool Fire View Factor, Fview (-)
The view factor, Fview (-), is defined as the
Burning rate
fraction of the emitted radiation that
reaches the receptor per unit area (the
Maximum Surface Emitting
Power
receptor can be a person or some
material). The shape of the flame is a
Actual Surface Emitting tilted cylinder as:
Power

View Factor

Heat Flux
Pool Fire Case: wind exists
The angle of tilt, Θ, represent the tilt of
Burning rate cylinder because of the wind, and is
measured with respect to the vertical. The
Maximum Surface Emitting view factor, Fview, is calculated as a function
Power of the perpendicular contribution Fv, and
the horizontal contribution Fh as:
Actual Surface Emitting
Power

View Factor

Heat Flux
Pool Fire The two contributions Fv and Fh have been derived [Mudan 1987] for the
geometry as:

Burning rate

Maximum Surface Emitting

Power and

Actual Surface Emitting

Power
Where

View Factor

Heat Flux

and the Froude number, Fr, and the Reynolds number, Re, &
are given as
Pool Fire Example
Burning rate

Maximum Surface Emitting

Power

Actual Surface Emitting

Power

View Factor

Heat Flux
Pool Fire Case: less wind

Burning rate When there is no wind, the flame

shape is presented as a straight
cylinder and the equations for Fv and
Maximum Surface Emitting
Power Fh simplify as:

Actual Surface Emitting

Power

View Factor

Heat Flux
Pool Fire
Case: less wind
Burning rate

Maximum Surface Emitting

Power

Actual Surface Emitting

Power

where
View Factor

Heat Flux
Pool Fire Heat Flux, q′ (kW/m ) 2

The heat flux, 𝑞′ (𝑘𝑊/𝑚2 ) in a certain distance from the

Burning rate center of the fire is calculated as

Maximum Surface Emitting

Power 𝑞′ = 𝑆𝐸𝑃𝑎𝑐𝑡 𝐹𝑣𝑖𝑒𝑤 𝜏𝑎

Actual Surface Emitting Where 𝜏𝑎 (-) is the atmospheric transmissivity calculated as:
Power

𝜏𝑎 = 𝑐4 𝑃𝑤 𝑋 − 𝑅 −0.09

View Factor
Where,
c4: 2.02 [unit (Pa0.09m0.09)]
Heat Flux Pw: partial water vapor pressure in air (Pa) calculated as
𝑃𝑤 = 𝑅𝐻 𝑃𝑤𝑜
𝑃𝑤𝑜 : saturation vapor pressure in air(Pa)
RH: relative humidity
Typical end results
 Calculation Procedures:

Fire Ball Dimensions and Duration

Usually a fire ball results from the

Burning Rate
rapid ignition that follows an event
known as a BLEVE* (Boiling Liquid
Expanding Vapor Explosion), but it Maximum Surface Emitting Power
can also appear during the ignition of
a flammable gas mixture. Fire balls
can radiate very large amounts of Actual Surface Emitting Power

heat causing material damages,

injuries or deaths in an area much View Factor
larger than the fire radius

Heat Flux
 Fire Ball
Dimensions and Duration
These expressions are based upon the knowledge of
the mass, M (kg), of the flammable substance. This
Burning Rate
mass is usually obtained from the initial volume, V
(m3), of the vessel, the fraction, f (-), of this volume
Maximum Surface Emitting which is filled with pressurized gas in the liquid
Power
phase, and the density, ρmat (kg/m3), of the
Actual Surface Emitting
flammable substance, as
Power
𝑀 = 𝑓 𝑉 𝜌𝑚𝑎𝑡
View Factor

Heat Flux
 Fire Ball
Dimensions and Duration During the first third of the total time duration, tmax (s),
of the fire ball, its diameter, D (m), increases until it
reaches its maximum value, Dmax (m). Following that, in
Burning Rate the remaining time, the fire ball rises while its
diameter remains constant.

Maximum Surface Emitting

Power The increase of the diameter, D (m), of the fire ball
sphere for the first third of the total time is given
Actual Surface Emitting by the empirical expression [Hardee, Lee & Benedict
Power 1978], as a function of the time, t (s),

View Factor
𝐷 = 𝑐1 𝑀1/4 𝑡 1/3

Heat Flux Where, 𝑐1 = 8.664 𝑚 𝑘𝑔−1/4 𝑠 −1/3

 Fire Ball Calculating the maximum Diameter and the
maximum total time duration
Dimensions and Duration

Roberts Method
Burning Rate
𝐷𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 𝑐2 𝑀1/3
Maximum Surface Emitting
Power 𝑡𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 𝑐3 𝑀1/3

Actual Surface Emitting Where, 𝑐2 = 5.8 𝑚 𝑘𝑔−1/3 , and 𝑐3 = 0.45 𝑠 𝑘𝑔−1/3

Power
TNO Method

View Factor 𝐷𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 𝑐4 𝑀0.325

𝑡𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 𝑐5 𝑀0.26
Heat Flux
Where, 𝑐4 = 6.48 𝑚 𝑘𝑔−0.325 , and 𝑐5 = 0.852 𝑠 𝑘𝑔−0.26
 Fire Ball Height of the fire ball center from the ground, Η (m), is
usually considered equal to the maximum diameter, Dmax (m).

Dimensions and Duration

𝐻 = 𝐷𝑚𝑎𝑥

Burning Rate Example:

Maximum Surface Emitting

Power

Actual Surface Emitting

Power

View Factor

Heat Flux
 Fire Ball
Dimensions and Duration

Burning Rate
The burning rate can be calculated as
Maximum Surface Emitting
Power 𝑀
𝑚′ = 2
0.888 𝜋 𝐷𝑚𝑎𝑥 𝑡𝑚𝑎𝑥
Actual Surface Emitting
Power

View Factor

Heat Flux
Exercise

Calculate the burning rate!

 Fire Ball
Dimensions and Duration
The maximum surface emitting power, SEPmax
(kW/m2), can be estimated as a function of the
Burning Rate burning rate, m’ (kg/m2s), the heat of combustion,
∆Hc (kJ/kg), and the radiation fraction, Fs (-), as:
Maximum Surface Emitting
Power
𝑆𝐸𝑃𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 𝐹𝑠 𝑚′ ∆𝐻𝑐
Actual Surface Emitting
Power 0.32
𝐹𝑠 = 𝑐6 𝑃𝑠𝑣

View Factor Where, 𝑐6 = 0.00325 𝑃𝑎−0.32 , and

𝑃𝑠𝑣 = vapor pressure inside the vessel (Pa)

Heat Flux Usually, the radiation friction takes values between 0.2
and 0.4
 Fire Ball
Dimensions and Duration

In the case of a fire ball which is a very rapid

Burning Rate
expansion of gases with a very small duration of
fire, usually it is assumed that not enough
Maximum Surface Emitting soot is formed to be able to influence the
Power
radiative heat flux.
Actual Surface Emitting
Power

𝑆𝐸𝑃𝑎𝑐𝑡 = 𝑆𝐸𝑃𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 𝐹𝑠 𝑚′ ∆𝐻𝑐

View Factor

Heat Flux
 Fire Ball The view factor, Fview, expresses the fraction of
the emitted radiation that reaches the receptor
Dimensions and Duration
per unit area (the receptor can be human or any
object).
2
Burning Rate 𝑅
𝐹𝑣𝑖𝑒𝑤 =
𝑋
Maximum Surface Emitting
Power
𝑋= 𝐻 2 + 𝑎2
Actual Surface Emitting
Power

View Factor

Heat Flux
 Fire Ball
Heat flux (𝑞′) (kW/m2)
Dimensions and Duration
𝑞′ = 𝑆𝐸𝑃𝑎𝑐𝑡 𝐹𝑣𝑖𝑒𝑤 𝜏𝑎

Burning Rate Atmospheric transmissivity 𝜏𝑎 (-)

−0.09
Maximum Surface Emitting 𝜏𝑎 = 𝑐7 𝑃𝑤 𝑋 − 𝑅
Power
𝑃𝑤 = 𝑅𝐻 𝑃𝑤𝑜
Actual Surface Emitting
Power
Pw (Pa), denotes the partial water vapor pressure in air,
View Factor X (m) is the distance of the receptor from the center of
the fire of radius R (m).
The constant c7 is equal to 2.02 Pa0.09m0.09
Heat Flux
Effects of
Fire on
People
Types of Burns
Thermal Radiation Intensity Limit
Assessing effects on People

Thermal radiation dose

Probability of Injury or Death

Overall Effects
 Thermal Radiation Dose (𝐷) (W4/3s.m-8/3)

𝐷 = 𝑡𝑒𝑓𝑓 𝑞 ′ 4/3

Thermal radiation dose

𝑞′ is the heat flux calculated for various types of fires
𝑡𝑒𝑓𝑓 represents the person’s exposure time to this heat flux

The exposure time 𝑡𝑒𝑓𝑓 (s)

Probability of Injury or
Death (𝑥𝑜 − 𝑟)
𝑡𝑒𝑓𝑓 = 𝑡𝑟 +
𝑢
𝑡𝑟 is the person’s reaction time ( assumed to be 5 s)
Overall Effects 𝑥𝑜 is the distance between flame’s surface and the position
where the intensity of heat flux is lower than 1 kW/m2 (m)
𝑟 is the distance of the person from the surface of the flame (m)
𝑢 is the escape velocity, usually taken as 4 m/s

If 𝑡𝑒𝑓𝑓 > the actual duration of the fire, the exposure time is taken as equal to the duration of fire
 Many methods for the reproduction of the dose-response
curves exist, but the most widely used method today (because
of its ease in computer calculations) is the method of
Thermal radiation dose probit functions.
Probability (P)
Probability of Injury or 1 𝑃𝑟 − 5
Death 𝑃 = 𝐹𝑘 1 + erf
2 2

Overall Effects The parameter, Fk (-), refers to the influence of clothes in the probability
of injury or death, and it constitutes a correction factor, providing there
is no ignition of the clothes. Its values range from 0.14 for winter clothes
(large coverage of skin area) to 0.95 for summer clothes (small coverage
of skin area).
Thermal radiation dose
Probit function (Pr)
Pr = 𝑐1 + 𝑐2 𝑙𝑛𝐷

Probability of Injury or
Death

Overall Effects

D refers to the radiation dose

 Example:

Thermal radiation dose

Probability of Injury or
Death

Overall Effects
 To calculate the overall effects, the previous expressions must
be integrated over the whole area around the fire. If one
assumes a population density of 𝑁𝑜 (persons/m2) in the vicinity,
Thermal radiation dose and the fire has a radius R (m), then the total number of
persons dying will be equal to:

Probability of Injury or ∞
Death
𝑁 = 𝑁𝑜 𝜋 𝑅2 + න 𝑃 𝑁𝑜 2𝜋 𝑟 𝑑𝑟
𝑅

Overall Effects

The first term represents the lethality inside the fire, while
the second term (together with the corresponding probit
function for lethality), the lethality outside the fire.
Example
For the pool fire, calculate for the summer season, the following:
a) The probability of injury (1st or 2nd degree burns) and death in a
distance of 30 m from the flame's surface.
Given 𝑞 ′ = 13.2 𝑘𝑊/𝑚2 , 𝑥𝑜 = 138.4 𝑚 (𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑞 ′ = 1 𝑘𝑊/𝑚2 )

b) If, in the area where the pool fire was developed, the population density
is about 1 person per 20 m2 (in the whole area), calculate the number of
persons with 1st and 2nd degree burns, as well as the number of deaths.
Given: R = 21.2 m (Obtained from calculating the diameter of pool fire)