Political Risk Rating of Brazil

Sequence Components Points Obtatin Max Point

1 Government Stability 9 12
A. Government Unity 3 4
B. Legislative Strength 3 4
C. Popular Support 3 4

2 Socio Economic Conditions 6 12

A. Unempoyment 2 4
B. Consumer Confidence 2 4

C. Poverty 2 0

3 Investment Profile 6 12
A. Contract Viability 2 4
B. Profit repatrition 2 4
C. Payment Delays 2 4

4 Internal Conflict 8 12
A. Civil War 4 4
B. Political Violance 2 4

C. Civil Disorder 2 4

5 External Conflict 8 12
A. War 3 4
B. Cross Border Conflict 3 4
C. Foreign Pressure 2 4

6 Corruption 2 6

7 Military in Politics 2 6

8 Religious Tension 4 6

9 Ethnic Tension 2 6

10 Law and Order 2 6

11 Democratic Accountability 3 6

12 Bureaucracy Quality 2 4

Total 54 100

Composite

CPER(Brazil) = .5 (PR + E
=.5 (55+35+
= 63.25
 The Economic Risk Rating
A. GDP Per Head
B. Real Gdp Growth
C. Annual Inflation Rate
D. Budget Balance as a % of GDP
E. Current Account Balance as A % of GDP
Total

Financial Risk Rating of Brazil

Sequence Component
A Foreign Debt as a % of GDP
B Foreign Debt services as a % o Exports goods and services
C Current Account as a % of exports gods and services
D Net international Liquidity as Months cover
E Exchange Rate Stability
Total

66.25
 Composite Political, Economic, and Financial Risk rating,

R(Brazil) = .5 (PR + ER + FR) Where,

=.5 (55+35+36.5) PR= Political Risk= 55
= 63.25 ER= Economic Risk= 35
FR= Financial Risk= 36.5
 Maximum Point Point obtain
5 4
10 9
10 9
10 2
15 11
50 35

ting of Brazil
Maximum Point Point obtain
10 8
10 3.5
15 12
5 5
10 8
50 36.5

Composite Country Risk Rating

80.0 to 100 Points
70.0 to 79.5 Points
60.0 to 69.5 Points
50.0 to 59.5 Points
00.0 to 49.5 Points
 Addition to risk Argentina's composite
Risk Type
premium Risk Rating
Very Low 1%
Low 2%
Moderate 3% 66.25
High 4%
Very High 5%
 Allternatives
Government Loan(30%) Preffered Stock(10%) Common Stock(20%)
Required Amount 108000000 36000000 72000000
Weight 0.5 0.166666666666667 0.333333333333333
Cost 0.118 0.2 0.16
Corporate tax 0.34
WACC 0.125606666666667
Country Risk 0.02
Adjusted WACC 0.145606666666667
NPV $ 373,332,324.37
IRR 29%
MIRR 18%

Bank Debt(40%) Common Stock(30%)

Required Amount 144000000 108000000
Weight 0.571428571428571 0.428571428571429
Cost 0.14 0.16
Corporate tax 0.34
WACC 0.121371428571429
Country Risk 0.02
Adjusted WACC 0.141371428571429
NPV 393871118
IRR 29%
MIRR 18%

Preffered stock(20%) Common Stock(50%)

Required Amount 72000000 180000000
Weight 0.285714285714286 0.714285714285714
Cost 0.2 0.16
Corporate tax
WACC 0.171428571428571
Country Risk 0.02
Adjusted WACC 0.191428571428571
NPV 201139812
IRR 29%
MIRR 21%
 AES Tiete: Cash Flow Calculation
Base Case, Bid price= BRL 48

Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Bid price 33.94557 33.5357 33.13098 32.73075 32.31984
Capacity Revenue 71.7059 70.8401 69.98517 69.13973 68.27173
Revenues-Pass Through (GAS COST) 152.9397 156.4595 160.0602 163.7437 167.3481
Variable Revenues-Pass Through 9.772071 9.652963 9.535351 9.419043 9.299632
Gross Revenue 268.3633 270.4883 272.7117 275.0332 277.2393
Revenue Tax 24.8236 25.02016 25.22583 25.44057 25.64463
Net Revenue 243.5397 245.4681 247.4859 249.5926 251.5946
Variable costs
Gas Cost 133.0715 136.1322 139.2632 142.4663 145.6005
Variable O&M 8.577888 8.474316 8.372044 8.270907 8.167072
Total Variable costs 141.6494 144.6065 147.6352 150.7372 153.7676
Gross profit 101.8903 100.8616 99.85061 98.85548 97.82707
Fixed Costs
Personnel, Materials, Services, and others 15.68908 15.49964 15.31259 15.1276 14.93769
Regulatory costs 6.821337 6.738975 6.657646 6.577219 6.494647
Depreciation 16.37121 16.17354 15.97835 15.78533 15.58715
Total Fixed cost 38.88162 38.41216 37.94858 37.49015 37.01949
EBT 63.00865 62.44946 61.90203 61.36533 60.80758
Corporate Tax 21.42294 21.23282 21.04669 20.86421 20.67458
Net Income 41.58571 41.21664 40.85534 40.50112 40.133
Depreciation 16.37121 16.17354 15.97835 15.78533 15.58715
Capital Expenditure
Net working capital 3.465476 3.43472 3.404612 3.375093 3.344417
Net Cash Flow 54.49144 53.95546 53.42908 52.91135 52.37574

Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

CPI 0.059108 0.065 0.06 0.055 0.054 0.0518 0.0518 0.0518
Exchange rate 2.3426 2.397069 2.64003941 2.721597 2.80673 2.877925 2.931976 2.96781
Gas Rate 3.428333 3.845583 4.08825 4.307917 4.428538 4.561394 4.652622 4.759633

Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Initial Investment -136.3616 -132.2753 -85.508761 -83.39342
Cash flow -136.3616 -132.2753 -85.508761 -83.39342 54.49144 53.95546 53.42908 52.91135

NPV $40.74
IRR 9%

MIRR 9%
 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
31.89857 31.46751 31.0272 30.8028 29.10545 29.05876 27.50042 27.41472 25.98281 25.8648
67.38186 66.4713 65.54119 65.06717 61.48174 61.38311 58.0913 57.91027 54.88554 54.63625
171.1992 174.9676 178.819 182.755 186.7777 190.8888 195.0904 199.3844 203.7729 208.2579
9.177214 9.051947 8.923992 8.858782 8.365534 8.351966 7.899113 7.874208 7.458096 7.423802
279.6569 281.9584 284.3113 287.4838 285.7304 289.6826 288.5812 292.5836 292.0994 296.1828
25.86826 26.08115 26.2988 26.59225 26.43006 26.79564 26.69376 27.06398 27.01919 27.39691
253.7886 255.8772 258.0125 260.8915 259.3003 262.887 261.8875 265.5196 265.0802 268.7859

148.9493 152.2262 155.5752 158.9978 162.4958 166.0707 169.7243 173.4582 177.2743 181.1743
8.060621 7.951693 7.840428 7.783723 7.354812 7.343014 6.949228 6.927572 6.565736 6.535914
157.0099 160.1779 163.4156 166.7816 169.8506 173.4137 176.6735 180.3858 183.84 187.7102
96.77867 95.69934 94.59693 94.10995 89.44972 89.47329 85.21398 85.13387 81.24016 81.07567

14.74299 14.54376 14.34025 14.23654 13.45205 13.43047 12.71024 12.67063 12.00882 11.95428
6.409994 6.323373 6.234892 6.189799 5.848719 5.839337 5.526189 5.508968 5.221227 5.197512
15.38399 15.17609 14.96374 14.85552 14.03693 14.01441 13.26285 13.22152 12.53094 12.47403
36.53697 36.04323 35.53889 35.28185 33.3377 33.28422 31.49928 31.40112 29.76099 29.62582
60.2417 59.65612 59.05804 58.8281 56.11202 56.18907 53.7147 53.73275 51.47917 51.44985
20.48218 20.28308 20.07973 20.00155 19.07809 19.10428 18.263 18.26914 17.50292 17.49295
39.75952 39.37304 38.97831 38.82654 37.03393 37.08478 35.4517 35.46362 33.97625 33.9569
15.38399 15.17609 14.96374 14.85552 14.03693 14.01441 13.26285 13.22152 12.53094 12.47403

3.313293 3.281086 3.248192 3.235545 3.086161 3.090399 2.954309 2.955301 2.831354 2.829742
51.83021 51.26804 50.69386 50.44652 47.9847 48.00879 45.76025 45.72984 43.67584 43.60119

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
0.0518 0.0518 0.0518 0.0518 0.0518 0.0518 0.0518 0.0518 0.0518 0.0518
3.004065 3.040799 3.079459 3.120128 3.162869 3.207754 3.231123 3.419552 3.425046 3.61913
4.869104 4.981094 5.090678 5.207763 5.322334 5.439425 5.559093 5.681393 5.806383 5.934124

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

52.37574 51.83021 51.26804 50.69386 50.44652 47.9847 48.00879 45.76025 45.72984 43.67584
 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043
24.54798 24.40349 23.19152 23.02562 21.90923 21.72632 20.69716 20.69716 20.69716 20.69716
51.85463 51.54941 48.98927 48.63882 46.2806 45.89422 43.72023 43.72023 43.72023 43.72023
212.8417 217.5262 222.3138 227.2068 232.2073 237.3179 242.541 247.8789 253.3343 258.9097
7.041135 6.999146 6.646947 6.598736 6.274315 6.221162 5.922086 5.922086 5.922086 5.922086
296.2854 300.4783 301.1415 305.4699 306.6715 311.1596 312.8804 318.2184 323.6737 329.2491
27.4064 27.79424 27.85559 28.25597 28.36711 28.78227 28.94144 29.4352 29.93982 30.45554
268.879 272.684 273.286 277.214 278.3044 282.3774 283.939 288.7832 293.7339 298.7936

185.1601 189.2337 193.3968 197.6515 201.9999 206.4439 210.9856 215.6273 220.3711 225.2193
6.203161 6.166648 5.860388 5.818466 5.536361 5.490141 5.230075 5.230075 5.230075 5.230075
191.3633 195.4003 199.2572 203.47 207.5362 211.934 216.2157 220.8574 225.6012 230.4493
77.51571 77.28371 74.02877 73.74397 70.76815 70.44338 67.7233 67.92579 68.13274 68.34424

11.34567 11.27889 10.71873 10.64206 10.12608 10.04154 9.56588 9.56588 9.56588 9.56588
4.932899 4.903863 4.660318 4.626981 4.402644 4.365889 4.159078 4.159078 4.159078 4.159078
11.83896 11.76927 11.18476 11.10475 10.56635 10.47813 9.981788 9.981788 9.981788 9.981788
28.11752 27.95202 26.56381 26.37379 25.09507 24.88557 23.70675 23.70675 23.70675 23.70675
49.39819 49.33169 47.46495 47.37018 45.67308 45.55781 44.01655 44.21905 44.426 44.6375
16.79538 16.77277 16.13808 16.10586 15.52885 15.48966 14.96563 15.03448 15.10484 15.17675
32.6028 32.55891 31.32687 31.26432 30.14423 30.06816 29.05093 29.18457 29.32116 29.46075
11.83896 11.76927 11.18476 11.10475 10.56635 10.47813 9.981788 9.981788 9.981788 9.981788

2.7169 2.713243 2.610572 2.60536 2.512019 2.50568 2.420911 2.432048 2.44343 70.80986
41.72486 41.61494 39.90106 39.76371 38.19856 38.04061 36.6118 36.73431 36.85952 110.2524

2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
0.0518 0.0518 0.0518 0.0518 0.0518 0.0518 0.0518 0.0518 0.0518 0.0518
3.630444 3.830517 3.847995 4.054411 4.078417 4.291552 4.322473 4.542725 4.580969 4.808758
6.064675 6.198097 6.334456 6.473814 6.616238 6.761795 6.910554 7.062586 7.217963 7.376759

2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042

43.60119 41.72486 41.61494 39.90106 39.76371 38.19856 38.04061 36.6118 36.73431 36.85952
 2041 2042 2043
0.0518 0.0518 0.0518
4.808758 4.808758 4.808758
7.539047 7.704906 7.874414

2043

110.2524
 AES Tiete: Cash Flow calculation
Optimistic Case, Bid Price= BRL 50

Year 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Bid price 37.53804 37.0847937032 36.63724 36.19465 35.74025
Capacity Revenue 82.99294 81.9908594734 81.00136 80.02283 79.0182
Revenues-Pass Through (GAS COST) 159.5933 163.266090021 167.0233 170.867 174.6281
Variable Revenues-Pass Through 11.29032 11.1528851226 11.01717 10.88296 10.74517
Gross Revenue 291.4146 293.49462832 295.6791 297.9674 300.1317
Revenue Tax 26.95585 27.1482531196 27.35032 27.56199 27.76219
Net Revenue 264.4588 266.3463752 268.3288 270.4055 272.3696
Variable costs
Gas Cost 133.0715 136.132158351 139.2632 142.4663 145.6005
Variable O&M 9.485687 9.37115426881 9.258059 9.146218 9.031394
Total Variable costs 142.5572 145.503312619 148.5213 151.6125 154.6319
Gross profit 121.9016 120.843062581 119.8075 118.793 117.7376
Fixed Costs
Personnel, Materials, Services, and others 17.43231 17.2218243643 17.01398 16.80845 16.59743
Regulatory costs 7.579264 7.48774972359 7.397384 7.308021 7.216274
Depreciation 18.19023 17.9705993366 17.75372 17.53925 17.31906
Total Fixed cost 43.2018 42.6801734245 42.16509 41.65572 41.13276
EBT 78.69976 78.1628891564 77.64244 77.13726 76.60488
Corporate Tax 26.75792 26.5753823132 26.39843 26.22667 26.04566
Net profit 51.94184 51.5875068432 51.24401 50.91059 50.55922
Depreciation 18.19023 17.9705993366 17.75372 17.53925 17.31906
Capital Expenditure
Net working capital 4.328487 4.2989589036 4.270334 4.24255 4.213269
Net Cash Flow 65.80359 65.2591472762 64.7274 64.2073 63.66501

FX Rate - EOY (BRL/USD) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
- Base Case 2.34 2.40 2.64 2.72 2.81 2.88 2.93
- Optimistic Scenario 2.16 2.38 2.45 2.53 2.59 2.64
- Pessimistic Scenario $ 2.64 $ 2.90 $ 2.99 $ 3.09 $ 3.17 $ 3.23
IPCA (Brazil’s CPI)
- Base Case 5.9% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 5.2%
- Optimistic Scenario 5.9% 5.4% 5.0% 4.9% 4.7% 4.7%
- Pessimistic Scenario 0.0715 0.066 0.0605 0.0594 0.05698 0.05698

Henry Hub* - $/MMBtu 3.428333 3.845583 4.08825 4.30791666667 4.428538 4.561394 4.652622

Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Initial Investment -151.5129 -146.9725 -142.5146 -138.989
Cash flow -151.5129 -146.9725 -142.5146 -138.989 65.8035870568 65.25915 64.7274 64.2073

NPV $7.33

IRR 8%

MIRR 9%
 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
35.2744 34.79772 34.31081 34.06266 32.18569 32.13406 30.4108 30.31603 28.73258 28.60208
77.98827 76.93437 75.85786 75.30922 71.15942 71.04527 67.2353 67.02578 63.52493 63.2364
178.6467 182.5789 186.5977 190.7049 194.9024 199.1923 203.5766 208.0573 212.6366 217.3167
10.60391 10.45937 10.31172 10.23647 9.667308 9.651652 9.1291 9.100362 8.620206 8.580634
302.5133 304.7704 307.0781 310.3133 307.9149 312.0233 310.3518 314.4995 313.5143 317.7358
27.98248 28.19126 28.40472 28.70398 28.48212 28.86216 28.70754 29.0912 29.00008 29.39056
274.5308 276.5791 278.6734 281.6093 279.4327 283.1612 281.6443 285.4083 284.5143 288.3452

148.9493 152.2262 155.5752 158.9978 162.4958 166.0707 169.7243 173.4582 177.2743 181.1743
8.913677 8.793222 8.670182 8.607476 8.133173 8.120126 7.684666 7.660718 7.260589 7.227611
157.863 161.0194 164.2454 167.6053 170.629 174.1908 177.4089 181.1189 184.5349 188.4019
116.6678 115.5597 114.428 114.004 108.8038 108.9703 104.2353 104.2894 99.9794 99.9433

16.3811 16.15973 15.93361 15.81838 14.94673 14.92275 14.12248 14.07847 13.34314 13.28253
7.122216 7.02597 6.927658 6.877555 6.498577 6.488152 6.14021 6.121075 5.801363 5.775014
17.09332 16.86233 16.62638 16.50613 15.59658 15.57157 14.7365 14.69058 13.92327 13.86003
40.59663 40.04803 39.48765 39.20206 37.04189 36.98247 34.9992 34.89013 33.06777 32.91758
76.07116 75.51169 74.94037 74.80191 71.76189 71.98786 69.23614 69.39925 66.91163 67.02572
25.86419 25.67397 25.47972 25.43265 24.39904 24.47587 23.54029 23.59575 22.74995 22.78875
50.20697 49.83771 49.46064 49.36926 47.36284 47.51199 45.69585 45.80351 44.16168 44.23698
17.09332 16.86233 16.62638 16.50613 15.59658 15.57157 14.7365 14.69058 13.92327 13.86003

4.183914 4.153143 4.12172 4.114105 3.946904 3.959333 3.807988 3.816959 3.68014 3.686415
63.11637 62.5469 61.9653 61.76129 59.01253 59.12422 56.62437 56.67713 54.40481 54.4106

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
2.97 3.00 3.04 3.08 3.12 3.16 3.21 3.23 3.42 3.43
2.67 2.70 2.74 2.77 2.81 2.85 2.89 2.91 3.08 3.08
$ 3.26 $ 3.30 $ 3.34 $ 3.39 $ 3.43 $ 3.48 $ 3.53 $ 3.55 $ 3.76 $ 3.77

5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%
4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%
0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698

4.759633 4.869104 4.981094 5.090678 5.207763 5.322334 5.439425 5.559093 5.681393 5.806383

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
63.66501 63.11637 62.5469 61.9653 61.76129 59.01253 59.12422 56.62437 56.67713 54.40481
 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043
27.1459 26.98612 25.64588 25.46242 24.22789 24.02562 22.88754 22.88754 22.88754 22.88754
60.01693 59.66367 56.70054 56.29493 53.5655 53.11831 50.60212 50.60212 50.60212 50.60212
222.0997 226.9879 231.9837 237.0893 242.3073 247.6401 253.0902 258.6603 264.3528 270.1706
8.139071 8.090619 7.684213 7.628583 7.25423 7.192896 6.84779 6.84779 6.84779 6.84779
317.4016 321.7283 322.0143 326.4753 327.355 331.977 333.4277 338.9977 344.6903 350.5081
29.35964 29.75987 29.78632 30.19896 30.28033 30.70787 30.84206 31.35729 31.88385 32.422
288.0419 291.9684 292.228 296.2763 297.0746 301.2691 302.5856 307.6404 312.8064 318.0861

185.1601 189.2337 193.3968 197.6515 201.9999 206.4439 210.9856 215.6273 220.3711 225.2193
6.859642 6.819266 6.480594 6.434236 6.122275 6.071163 5.783575 5.783575 5.783575 5.783575
192.0198 196.0529 199.8774 204.0858 208.1221 212.515 216.7692 221.4109 226.1547 231.0028
96.02214 95.9155 92.35058 92.19055 88.95249 88.75407 85.81644 86.22955 86.65174 87.08323

12.6063 12.5321 11.9097 11.82451 11.2512 11.15727 10.62876 10.62876 10.62876 10.62876
5.480999 5.448737 5.178131 5.14109 4.891827 4.850987 4.621198 4.621198 4.621198 4.621198
13.1544 13.07697 12.42752 12.33862 11.74038 11.64237 11.09088 11.09088 11.09088 11.09088
31.24169 31.0578 29.51535 29.30421 27.88341 27.65063 26.34083 26.34083 26.34083 26.34083
64.78045 64.8577 62.83523 62.88634 61.06908 61.10344 59.47561 59.88872 60.31092 60.7424
22.02535 22.05162 21.36398 21.38135 20.76349 20.77517 20.22171 20.36216 20.50571 20.65242
42.7551 42.80608 41.47125 41.50498 40.30559 40.32827 39.2539 39.52655 39.8052 40.08999
13.1544 13.07697 12.42752 12.33862 11.74038 11.64237 11.09088 11.09088 11.09088 11.09088

3.562925 3.567174 3.455937 3.458748 3.358799 3.360689 3.271158 3.293879 3.3171 91.47063
52.34657 52.31588 50.44283 50.38485 48.68718 48.60995 47.07362 47.32355 47.57898 142.6515

2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039
3.62 3.63 3.83 3.85 4.05 4.08 4.29 4.32 4.54 4.58
3.26 3.27 3.45 3.46 3.65 3.67 3.86 3.89 4.09 4.12
$ 3.98 $ 3.99 $ 4.21 $ 4.23 $ 4.46 $ 4.49 $ 4.72 $ 4.75 $ 5.00 $ 5.04

5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%
4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%
0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698

5.934124 6.064675 6.198097 6.334456 6.473814 6.616238 6.761795 6.910554 7.062586 7.217963

2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042
54.4106 52.34657 52.31588 50.44283 50.38485 48.68718 48.60995 47.07362 47.32355 47.57898
 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045
4.808758 4.808758 4.808758 4.808758 4.808758 4.808758
4.327882 4.327882 4.327882 4.327882 4.327882 4.327882
5.289634 5.289634 5.289634 5.289634 5.289634 5.289634

0.0518 0.0518 0.0518 0.0518 0.0518 0.0518

0.04662 0.04662 0.04662 0.04662 0.04662 0.04662
0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698

7.376759 7.539047 7.704906 7.874414 8.047651 8.2247

2043
142.6515
 AES Tiete: Cash Flow Calculation
Pessimistic Case, Bid Price= BRL 42

Year 2019 2020

Bid price $ 27.13 $ 26.80
Capacity Revenue $ 57.04 $ 56.35
Revenues-Pass Through (GAS COST) 139.6326 142.8463
Variable Revenues-Pass Through $ 8.16 $ 8.06
Gross Revenue $ 231.96 $ 234.06
Revenue Tax $ 21.46 $ 21.65
210.5 Net Revenue $ 210.50 $ 212.41

Variable costs
Gas Cost 133.0715 136.1322
Variable O&M $ 7.86 $ 7.76

140.9274 Total Variable costs 140.9274 143.8932

Gross profit $ 69.57 $ 68.51

Fixed Costs
Personnel, Materials, Services, and others $ 14.26 $ 14.09
Regulatory costs $ 6.20 $ 6.13
Depreciation $ 14.88 $ 14.70
35.35 Total Fixed cost $ 35.35 $ 34.92
EBT $ 34.22 $ 33.59
Corporate Tax $ 11.64 $ 11.42

Net profit $ 22.59 $ 22.17

Depreciation $ 14.88 $ 14.70
Capital Expenditure
Net working capital $ 1.88 $ 1.85

Net Cash Flow $ 35.59 $ 35.03

FX Rate - EOY (BRL/USD) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
- Base Case 2.34 2.40 2.64 2.72 2.81 2.88
- Optimistic Scenario 2.16 2.38 2.45 2.53 2.59
- Pessimistic Scenario $ 2.64 $ 2.90 $ 2.99 $ 3.09 $ 3.17
IPCA (Brazil’s CPI)
- Base Case 5.9% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2%
- Optimistic Scenario 5.9% 5.4% 5.0% 4.9% 4.7%
- Pessimistic Scenario 0.0715 0.066 0.0605 0.0594 0.05698

Henry Hub* - $/MMBtu 3.4283333 3.8455833 4.08825 4.307917 4.428538 4.561394

Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Initial Investment $ (123.97) $ (120.25) $ (77.74) $ (75.81)

Cash Flow -123.96509 -120.25026 -77.73524 -75.8122 35.59033 35.02631

NPV ($105.85) wacc 0.0927

IRR 5%

MIRR 7%
 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
$ 26.48 $ 26.16 $ 25.83 $ 25.49 $ 25.15 $ 24.80 $ 24.62 $ 23.26 $ 23.22 $ 21.98
$ 55.67 $ 55.00 $ 54.31 $ 53.60 $ 52.87 $ 52.14 $ 51.76 $ 48.91 $ 48.83 $ 46.21
146.1339 149.4971 152.788 156.30428683 159.745 163.2614 166.8552 170.5281 174.2817 178.118
$ 7.96 $ 7.86 $ 7.76 $ 7.66 $ 7.55 $ 7.45 $ 7.39 $ 6.98 $ 6.97 $ 6.59
$ 236.24 $ 238.51 $ 240.69 $ 243.06 $ 245.32 $ 247.64 $ 250.62 $ 249.68 $ 253.30 $ 252.90
$ 21.85 $ 22.06 $ 22.26 $ 22.48 $ 22.69 $ 22.91 $ 23.18 $ 23.10 $ 23.43 $ 23.39
$ 214.39 $ 216.45 $ 218.42 $ 220.57 $ 222.63 $ 224.73 $ 227.44 $ 226.58 $ 229.87 $ 229.50

139.2632 142.4663 145.6005 148.94932079 152.2262 155.5752 158.9978 162.4958 166.0707 169.7243
$ 7.67 $ 7.57 $ 7.48 $ 7.38 $ 7.28 $ 7.18 $ 7.13 $ 6.74 $ 6.72 $ 6.36

146.9306 150.041 153.0802 156.33148956 159.5086 162.7557 166.1264 169.2316 172.7957 176.0886
$ 67.46 $ 66.41 $ 65.34 $ 64.24 $ 63.12 $ 61.98 $ 61.31 $ 57.35 $ 57.08 $ 53.41

$ 13.92 $ 13.75 $ 13.58 $ 13.40 $ 13.22 $ 13.04 $ 12.94 $ 12.23 $ 12.21 $ 11.55
$ 6.05 $ 5.98 $ 5.90 $ 5.83 $ 5.75 $ 5.67 $ 5.63 $ 5.32 $ 5.31 $ 5.02
$ 14.53 $ 14.35 $ 14.17 $ 13.99 $ 13.80 $ 13.60 $ 13.51 $ 12.76 $ 12.74 $ 12.06
$ 34.50 $ 34.08 $ 33.65 $ 33.22 $ 32.77 $ 32.31 $ 32.07 $ 30.31 $ 30.26 $ 28.64
$ 32.96 $ 32.33 $ 31.69 $ 31.03 $ 30.36 $ 29.67 $ 29.24 $ 27.04 $ 26.82 $ 24.78
$ 11.21 $ 10.99 $ 10.77 $ 10.55 $ 10.32 $ 10.09 $ 9.94 $ 9.19 $ 9.12 $ 8.42

$ 21.75 $ 21.34 $ 20.91 $ 20.48 $ 20.03 $ 19.58 $ 19.30 $ 17.85 $ 17.70 $ 16.35
$ 14.53 $ 14.35 $ 14.17 $ 13.99 $ 13.80 $ 13.60 $ 13.51 $ 12.76 $ 12.74 $ 12.06

$ 1.81 $ 1.78 $ 1.74 $ 1.71 $ 1.67 $ 1.63 $ 1.61 $ 1.49 $ 1.47 $ 1.36

$ 34.47 $ 33.91 $ 33.34 $ 32.76 $ 32.16 $ 31.55 $ 31.20 $ 29.12 $ 28.97 $ 27.05
 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
2.93 2.97 3.00 3.04 3.08 3.12 3.16 3.21 3.23 3.42
2.64 2.67 2.70 2.74 2.77 2.81 2.85 2.89 2.91 3.08
$ 3.23 $ 3.26 $ 3.30 $ 3.34 $ 3.39 $ 3.43 $ 3.48 $ 3.53 $ 3.55 $ 3.76

5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%
4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%
0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698

4.652622 4.759633 4.869104 4.9810936369 5.090678 5.207763 5.322334 5.439425 5.559093 5.681393

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

34.46626 33.90939 33.34205 32.756556277 32.16171 31.55406 31.19545 29.12135 28.96512 27.04827

Basic assumption for simulation

Revenue 210.5
Revenue growth 0.1
veriable cost 140.93
fixd cost 35.35
wacc 0.0927
 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
$ 21.91 $ 20.77 $ 20.67 $ 19.62 $ 19.50 $ 18.54 $ 18.40 $ 17.51 $ 17.36 $ 16.54
$ 46.06 $ 43.66 $ 43.46 $ 41.25 $ 41.01 $ 38.97 $ 38.69 $ 36.81 $ 36.51 $ 34.78
182.0386 186.0455 190.1405 194.3256 198.6028 202.9741 207.4416 212.0074 216.6735 221.4424
$ 6.57 $ 6.22 $ 6.19 $ 5.87 $ 5.84 $ 5.54 $ 5.50 $ 5.23 $ 5.19 $ 4.94
$ 256.58 $ 256.69 $ 260.47 $ 261.07 $ 264.95 $ 266.02 $ 270.04 $ 271.56 $ 275.73 $ 277.70
$ 23.73 $ 23.74 $ 24.09 $ 24.15 $ 24.51 $ 24.61 $ 24.98 $ 25.12 $ 25.51 $ 25.69
$ 232.85 $ 232.95 $ 236.37 $ 236.92 $ 240.44 $ 241.41 $ 245.06 $ 246.44 $ 250.23 $ 252.01

173.4582 177.2743 181.1743 185.1601 189.2337 193.3968 197.6515 201.9999 206.4439 210.9856
$ 6.34 $ 6.01 $ 5.99 $ 5.68 $ 5.65 $ 5.37 $ 5.33 $ 5.07 $ 5.03 $ 4.79

179.8027 183.2874 187.1601 190.8412 194.8813 198.7639 202.9803 207.0702 211.4719 215.7755
$ 53.05 $ 49.66 $ 49.21 $ 46.08 $ 45.56 $ 42.65 $ 42.08 $ 39.37 $ 38.75 $ 36.24

$ 11.52 $ 10.92 $ 10.87 $ 10.31 $ 10.25 $ 9.74 $ 9.67 $ 9.21 $ 9.13 $ 8.70
$ 5.01 $ 4.75 $ 4.73 $ 4.48 $ 4.46 $ 4.24 $ 4.21 $ 4.00 $ 3.97 $ 3.78
$ 12.02 $ 11.39 $ 11.34 $ 10.76 $ 10.70 $ 10.17 $ 10.10 $ 9.61 $ 9.53 $ 9.07
$ 28.55 $ 27.06 $ 26.93 $ 25.56 $ 25.41 $ 24.15 $ 23.98 $ 22.81 $ 22.62 $ 21.55
$ 24.50 $ 22.60 $ 22.28 $ 20.51 $ 20.15 $ 18.50 $ 18.10 $ 16.56 $ 16.13 $ 14.68
$ 8.33 $ 7.69 $ 7.58 $ 6.97 $ 6.85 $ 6.29 $ 6.15 $ 5.63 $ 5.48 $ 4.99

$ 16.17 $ 14.92 $ 14.70 $ 13.54 $ 13.30 $ 12.21 $ 11.95 $ 10.93 $ 10.65 $ 9.69
$ 12.02 $ 11.39 $ 11.34 $ 10.76 $ 10.70 $ 10.17 $ 10.10 $ 9.61 $ 9.53 $ 9.07

$ 1.35 $ 1.24 $ 1.23 $ 1.13 $ 1.11 $ 1.02 $ 1.00 $ 0.91 $ 0.89 $ 0.81

$ 26.84 $ 25.07 $ 24.82 $ 23.17 $ 22.89 $ 21.36 $ 21.05 $ 19.62 $ 19.28 $ 17.96
 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038
3.43 3.62 3.63 3.83 3.85 4.05 4.08 4.29 4.32 4.54
3.08 3.26 3.27 3.45 3.46 3.65 3.67 3.86 3.89 4.09
$ 3.77 $ 3.98 $ 3.99 $ 4.21 $ 4.23 $ 4.46 $ 4.49 $ 4.72 $ 4.75 $ 5.00

5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%
4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%
0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698

5.806383 5.934124 6.064675 6.198097 6.334456 6.473814 6.616238 6.761795 6.910554 7.062586

2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

26.84213 25.06772 24.81925 23.17388 22.88966 21.36119 21.04691 19.62434 19.28488 17.95825
 2041 2042 2043
$ 16.54 $ 16.54 $ 16.54
$ 34.78 $ 34.78 $ 34.78
226.3162 231.2972 236.3877
$ 4.94 $ 4.94 $ 4.94
$ 282.57 $ 287.55 $ 292.64
$ 26.14 $ 26.60 $ 27.07
$ 256.43 $ 260.95 $ 265.57

215.6273 220.3711 225.2193

$ 4.79 $ 4.79 $ 4.79

220.4172 225.161 230.0091

$ 36.02 $ 35.79 $ 35.56

$ 8.70 $ 8.70 $ 8.70

$ 3.78 $ 3.78 $ 3.78
$ 9.07 $ 9.07 $ 9.07
$ 21.55 $ 21.55 $ 21.55
$ 14.47 $ 14.24 $ 14.01
$ 4.92 $ 4.84 $ 4.76

$ 9.55 $ 9.40 $ 9.25

$ 9.07 $ 9.07 $ 9.07

$ 0.80 $ 0.78 $ 32.26

$ 17.83 $ 17.69 $ 50.58

 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045
4.58 4.808758 4.808758 4.808758 4.808758 4.808758 4.808758
4.12 4.327882 4.327882 4.327882 4.327882 4.327882 4.327882
$ 5.04 5.289634 5.289634 5.289634 5.289634 5.289634 5.289634

5.2% 0.0518 0.0518 0.0518 0.0518 0.0518 0.0518

4.7% 0.04662 0.04662 0.04662 0.04662 0.04662 0.04662
0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698 0.05698

7.217963 7.376759 7.539047 7.704906 7.874414 8.047651 8.2247

2041 2042 2043

17.82592 17.69067 50.5786

 Forecast: NPV
Statistic
Trials
Base Case
Mean
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
Coeff. of Variation
Minimum
Maximum
Mean Std. Error

Forecast: IRR
Statistic
Trials
Base Case
Mean
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
Coeff. of Variation
Minimum
Maximum
Mean Std. Error
 Forecast: MIRR
Statistic
Trials
Base Case
Mean
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
Coeff. of Variation
Minimum
Maximum
Mean Std. Error
Forecast: NPV
Forecast values
1,000
($105.85)
($104.40)
($105.75)
'---
$19.51
$380.72
0.3441
3.17
-0.1869
($158.00)
($30.95)
$0.62

Forecast: IRR
Forecast values
1,000
5%
5%
5%
5%
0%
0%
'---
'---
0
5%
5%
0%
Forecast: MIRR
Forecast values
1,000
7%
7%
7%
'---
1%
0%
0.0398
3.28
0.0833
6%
10%
0%
Base Case
Bidding Price and Variable Cost for Addjusted for Inflation Scenerio Analysis
Fiscal Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bidding Price, adjusted for inflation 50.00 53.25 56.45 59.55 62.77
Variable Cost, adjusted for inflation 3.90 4.15 4.40 4.64 4.90

Optimistic Case
Bidding Price and Variable Cost for Addjusted for Inflation Scenerio Analysis
Fiscal Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bidding Price, adjusted for inflation 50.00 52.93 55.78 58.54 61.39
Variable Cost, adjusted for inflation 3.90 4.13 4.35 4.57 4.79

Pessimistic Case
Bidding Price and Variable Cost for Addjusted for Inflation Scenerio Analysis
Fiscal Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Bidding Price, adjusted for inflation 50.00 53.58 57.11 60.57 64.16
Variable Cost, adjusted for inflation 3.90 4.18 4.45 4.72 5.00

Annual GAS price scenerio analysis

Gas Price 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
$ 3.43 3.85 4.09 4.31 4.43

Currency Rate Scenerio Data

Fiscal Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Base Case $ 2.34 $ 2.40 $ 2.64 $ 2.72 $ 2.81
Optimistic Case $ 2.15 $ 2.38 $ 2.45 $ 2.53
Pessimistic Case $ 2.64 $ 2.90 $ 2.99 $ 3.09

IPCA (Brazil's CPI) Scenerio Data

Fiscal Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Base Case 6.00% 6.50% 6.0% 5.5% 5.4%
Optimistic Case 5.85% 5.40% 4.95% 4.86%
Pessimistic Case 7.15% 6.60% 6.05% 5.94%
 Scenerio Analysis

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
66.02 69.44 73.03 76.82 80.79 84.98 89.38 94.01 98.88 104.00
5.15 5.42 5.70 5.99 6.30 6.63 6.97 7.33 7.71 8.11

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
64.25 67.25 70.38 73.66 77.10 80.69 84.45 88.39 92.51 96.82
5.01 5.25 5.49 5.75 6.01 6.29 6.59 6.89 7.22 7.55

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
67.82 71.68 75.77 80.09 84.65 89.47 94.57 99.96 105.66 111.68
5.29 5.59 5.91 6.25 6.60 6.98 7.38 7.80 8.24 8.71

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
4.56 4.65 4.76 4.87 4.98 5.09 5.21 5.32 5.44 5.56

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
$ 2.88 $ 2.93 $ 2.97 $ 3.00 $ 3.04 $ 3.08 $ 3.12 $ 3.16 $ 3.21 $ 3.23
$ 2.59 $ 2.64 $ 2.67 $ 2.70 $ 2.74 $ 2.77 $ 2.81 $ 2.85 $ 2.89 $ 2.91
$ 3.17 $ 3.23 $ 3.26 $ 3.30 $ 3.34 $ 3.39 $ 3.43 $ 3.48 $ 3.53 $ 3.55

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%
4.66% 4.66% 4.66% 4.66% 4.66% 4.66% 4.66% 4.66% 4.66% 4.66%
5.70% 5.70% 5.70% 5.70% 5.70% 5.70% 5.70% 5.70% 5.70% 5.70%
 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
109.39 115.06 121.02 127.29 133.88 140.82 148.11 155.78 163.85 172.34
8.53 8.97 9.44 9.93 10.44 10.98 11.55 12.15 12.78 13.44

2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
101.34 106.06 111.01 116.18 121.60 127.27 133.20 139.41 145.91 152.71
7.90 8.27 8.66 9.06 9.48 9.93 10.39 10.87 11.38 11.91

2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
118.04 124.76 131.87 139.39 147.33 155.73 164.60 173.98 183.89 194.37
9.21 9.73 10.29 10.87 11.49 12.15 12.84 13.57 14.34 15.16

2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
5.68 5.81 5.93 6.06 6.20 6.33 6.47 6.62 6.76 6.91

2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
$ 3.42 $ 3.43 $ 3.62 $ 3.63 $ 3.83 $ 3.85 $ 4.05 $ 4.08 $ 4.29 $ 4.32
$ 3.08 $ 3.08 $ 3.26 $ 3.27 $ 3.45 $ 3.46 $ 3.65 $ 3.67 $ 3.86 $ 3.89
$ 3.76 $ 3.77 $ 3.98 $ 3.99 $ 4.21 $ 4.23 $ 4.46 $ 4.49 $ 4.72 $ 4.75

2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037
5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%
4.66% 4.66% 4.66% 4.66% 4.66% 4.66% 4.66% 4.66% 4.66% 4.66%
5.70% 5.70% 5.70% 5.70% 5.70% 5.70% 5.70% 5.70% 5.70% 5.70%
 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043
181.27 190.66 200.53 210.92 221.84 233.34
14.14 14.87 15.64 16.45 17.30 18.20

2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043

159.83 167.28 175.08 183.24 191.79 200.73
12.47 13.05 13.66 14.29 14.96 15.66

2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043

205.44 217.15 229.52 242.60 256.42 271.04
16.02 16.94 17.90 18.92 20.00 21.14

2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043

7.06 7.22 7.38 7.54 7.70 7.87

2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043

$ 4.54 $ 4.58 $ 4.81 $ 4.81 $ 4.81 $ 4.81
$ 4.09 $ 4.12 $ 4.33 $ 4.33 $ 4.33 $ 4.33
$ 5.00 $ 5.04 5.289634 5.289634 5.289634 5.289634

2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043

5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%
4.66% 4.66% 4.66% 4.66% 4.66% 4.66%
5.70% 5.70% 5.70% 5.70% 5.70% 5.70%
 Depreciation
Total capital Expenditure 1,200,000,000.00
Yearly Depreciation 45,600,000.00

Initial Investment 1,200,000,000.00

Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Investment Percentage 30% 30% 20% 20%
Investment Amount (136,361,600.91) (132,275,282.78) (85,508,761.00) (83,393,415.82)
Gross Revenue(Capacity) In USD 504,310,914.36 500,242,717.65
Less: 9.25% revenue tax 46648759.5786773 46272451.3821648
Net revenue 457,662,154.79 453,970,266.26
Less: Depreciation 15,552,648.92 15,364,862.43
Less: Gas cost 133,071,513.54 136,132,158.35
Less: Variable Operation & Maintanance cost 37,963,103.43 37,504,727.63
Less: Fixed cost 16,501,769.78 16,302,523.38
Less: Other Regulatory Cost $ 6,821,337.25 $ 6,738,974.75
Profit Before Tax 247,751,781.87 378,059,178.07
Less: Corporate Tax 34% 84,235,605.84 128,540,120.54
Net Profit 163,516,176.03 249,519,057.52
Add: Depreciation 15,552,648.92 15,364,862.43
Operating Cash Flow 179,068,824.95 264,883,919.96
Salvage Value of Capital
Working Capital Recovery (38,138,512.90) 307,657.38
Cash Flow of AES Tiete(in USD) (359,613,655.34) 140,930,312.05 265,191,577.33

NPV $1,666,250,884.05 Adjusted WACC 11.27%

IRR 60% WACC 9.27%
MIRR 19% Country Risk Premium 2%

Revenue Calculation: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total MMBtu of Gas needed in Dispatch Capacity 12870630 12870630
Total MMBtu of Gas needed in Full Capacity 28601400 28601400
Price of/Mmbtu in USD 4.09 4.31 4.43 4.56 4.65 4.76
Total Gas Cost in USD(Dispatch) 59,882,181.09 61,259,471.26
Total Gas Cost in USD(Capacity) 133,071,513.54 136,132,158.35
Variable cost:
Variable cost(Operation And Maintanence)/Mmbtu In BRL 3.70 3.70
Variable cost/ Mmbtu in USD 1.26 1.25
Total Variable Cost In USD(Dispatch) 16,242,057.94 16,045,947.36
Total Variable Cost in USD(Dispatch) Escalated Inflation 17,083,396.54 16,877,127.43
Total Variable Cost In USD(Capacity) 36,093,462.09 35,657,660.80
Total Variable Cost in USD(Capacity) Escalated Inflation 37,963,103.43 37,504,727.63
Bid Price In BRL 50 50
Bid Price In USD 10.75 10.51
Revenue from Total Dispatch In USD 138,315,867.57 135,206,126.66
Revenue From Total Capacity in USD 307,368,594.60 300,458,059.24
Mark up on gas cost Dispatch 75,883,755.65 77,629,082.03
Mark up on gas cost Capacity 148,834,805.78 152,258,006.31
Mark up on Variable Cost(Dispatch) 21,648,381.29 21,386,993.44
Mark up on Variable Cost(Capacity) 48,107,513.99 47,526,652.10
Total revenue(Dispatched) USD 235,848,004.52 234,222,202.14
Total Revenue(Capacity) USD 504,310,914.36 500,242,717.65

Total MMBtu needed/Day:

Installed Capacity 500
Numbers of Hour per year 8760
Capacity Factor 0.9
Dispatch/year 0.5
Total Energy/year(MW/hour) 1971000
Required Mmbtu/MWh 6.53
Total MMBtu needed/Year(Full Capacity): 28601400
Total MMBtu needed/Year(Dispatch): 12870630

Assumed foreign Exchange rate of BRL to USD $ 2.64 $ 2.72 $ 2.81 $ 2.88 $ 2.93 $ 2.97
Customer Price Index 6.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%

Net revenue 457,662,154.79 453,970,266.26

Working Capital Requirement 38,138,512.90 37,830,855.52
Change in Working Capital 38,138,512.90 (307,657.38)
 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

496,415,912.18 492,827,890.44 489,570,855.91 486,403,467.40 483,546,394.70 480,884,090.04 478,734,688.29 474,703,885.40 473,217,658.12 469,793,728.83 468,660,847.56 465,823,677.08
45918471.8762763 45586579.8657175 45285304.1720349 44992320.734643 44728041.5097292 44481778.3291399 44282958.6671894 43910109.3996435 43772633.3756852 43455919.916495 43351128.3992389 43088690.1298624
450,497,440.30 447,241,310.57 444,285,551.74 441,411,146.67 438,818,353.19 436,402,311.72 434,451,729.63 430,793,776.00 429,445,024.74 426,337,808.91 425,309,719.16 422,734,986.95
15,179,432.34 14,996,059.52 14,807,794.69 14,614,787.36 14,417,290.24 14,215,554.53 14,112,741.94 13,335,079.75 13,313,688.15 12,599,711.74 12,560,446.65 11,904,397.58
139,263,197.99 142,466,251.55 145,600,509.08 148,949,320.79 152,226,205.85 155,575,182.38 158,997,836.39 162,495,788.79 166,070,696.14 169,724,251.46 173,458,184.99 177,274,265.06
37,052,103.66 36,604,501.36 36,144,957.97 35,673,838.40 35,191,759.50 34,699,334.48 34,448,374.97 32,550,147.21 32,497,931.56 30,755,157.05 30,659,313.26 29,057,935.97
16,105,777.17 15,911,213.78 15,711,459.85 15,506,673.99 15,297,124.34 15,083,077.45 14,973,990.58 14,148,870.54 14,126,173.49 13,368,625.73 13,326,964.43 12,630,879.10
$ 6,657,645.76 $ 6,577,219.09 $ 6,494,646.80 $ 6,409,994.46 $ 6,323,372.91 $ 6,234,892.34 $ 6,189,799.10 $ 5,848,719.19 $ 5,839,336.91 $ 5,526,189.36 $ 5,508,967.83 $ 5,221,227.01
375,502,481.37 373,152,316.83 371,126,692.43 369,205,852.45 367,588,806.19 366,169,452.92 364,726,823.04 364,910,959.31 363,667,894.63 364,088,125.02 363,254,026.99 363,920,547.30
127,670,843.66 126,871,787.72 126,183,075.43 125,529,989.83 124,980,194.11 124,497,613.99 124,007,119.83 124,069,726.17 123,647,084.18 123,789,962.51 123,506,369.18 123,732,986.08
247,831,637.70 246,280,529.11 244,943,617.00 243,675,862.62 242,608,612.09 241,671,838.93 240,719,703.21 240,841,233.14 240,020,810.46 240,298,162.51 239,747,657.81 240,187,561.22
15,179,432.34 14,996,059.52 14,807,794.69 14,614,787.36 14,417,290.24 14,215,554.53 14,112,741.94 13,335,079.75 13,313,688.15 12,599,711.74 12,560,446.65 11,904,397.58
263,011,070.04 261,276,588.62 259,751,411.70 258,290,649.98 257,025,902.32 255,887,393.46 254,832,445.14 254,176,312.90 253,334,498.61 252,897,874.26 252,308,104.46 252,091,958.79

289,402.16 271,344.14 246,313.24 239,533.76 216,066.12 201,336.79 162,548.51 304,829.47 112,395.94 258,934.65 85,674.15 214,561.02
263,300,472.21 261,547,932.77 259,997,724.93 258,530,183.74 257,241,968.45 256,088,730.25 254,994,993.65 254,481,142.37 253,446,894.55 253,156,808.91 252,393,778.61 252,306,519.81

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630
28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400
4.87 4.98 5.09 5.21 5.32 5.44 5.56 5.68 5.81 5.93 6.06 6.20
62,668,439.10 64,109,813.20 65,520,229.09 67,027,194.36 68,501,792.63 70,008,832.07 71,549,026.37 73,123,104.95 74,731,813.26 76,375,913.16 78,056,183.24 79,773,419.28
139,263,197.99 142,466,251.55 145,600,509.08 148,949,320.79 152,226,205.85 155,575,182.38 158,997,836.39 162,495,788.79 166,070,696.14 169,724,251.46 173,458,184.99 177,274,265.06

3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70
1.23 1.22 1.20 1.19 1.17 1.15 1.15 1.08 1.08 1.02 1.02 0.97
15,852,297.63 15,660,796.36 15,464,186.24 15,262,623.39 15,056,371.72 14,845,693.59 14,738,323.58 13,926,189.62 13,903,849.78 13,158,224.64 13,117,219.02 12,432,088.98
16,673,446.65 16,472,025.61 16,265,231.09 16,053,227.28 15,836,291.78 15,614,700.52 15,501,768.74 14,647,566.24 14,624,069.20 13,839,820.67 13,796,690.97 13,076,071.19
35,227,328.06 34,801,769.69 34,364,858.31 33,916,940.86 33,458,603.83 32,990,430.20 32,751,830.17 30,947,088.05 30,897,443.97 29,240,499.19 29,149,375.60 27,626,864.39
37,052,103.66 36,604,501.36 36,144,957.97 35,673,838.40 35,191,759.50 34,699,334.48 34,448,374.97 32,550,147.21 32,497,931.56 30,755,157.05 30,659,313.26 29,057,935.97
50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
10.27 10.04 9.82 9.60 9.39 9.19 8.99 8.80 8.61 8.43 8.24 8.07
 132,166,301.72 129,194,820.84 126,413,719.02 123,571,572.84 120,911,519.42 118,308,727.41 115,761,964.20 113,270,023.68 110,831,725.72 108,445,915.57 106,111,463.38 103,827,263.58
293,702,892.71 287,099,601.86 280,919,375.60 274,603,495.21 268,692,265.37 262,908,283.14 257,248,809.34 251,711,163.74 246,292,723.81 240,990,923.49 235,803,251.95 230,727,252.40
79,414,550.92 81,241,085.59 83,028,389.48 84,938,042.43 86,806,679.37 88,716,426.31 90,668,187.69 92,662,887.82 94,701,471.35 96,784,903.72 98,914,171.61 101,090,283.38
155,759,940.45 159,342,419.08 162,847,952.30 166,593,455.21 170,258,511.22 174,004,198.47 177,832,290.84 181,744,601.23 185,742,982.46 189,829,328.08 194,005,573.29 198,273,695.91
21,128,885.56 20,873,641.27 20,611,587.60 20,342,932.64 20,068,028.15 19,787,223.79 19,644,114.65 18,561,654.19 18,531,878.33 17,538,064.77 17,483,410.04 16,570,227.95
46,953,079.01 46,385,869.49 45,803,528.01 45,206,516.98 44,595,618.10 43,971,608.43 43,653,588.12 41,248,120.43 41,181,951.84 38,973,477.26 38,852,022.31 36,822,728.77
232,709,738.20 231,309,547.70 230,053,696.10 228,852,547.92 227,786,226.93 226,812,377.52 226,074,266.55 224,494,565.70 224,065,075.40 222,768,884.06 222,509,045.02 221,487,774.91
496,415,912.18 492,827,890.44 489,570,855.91 486,403,467.40 483,546,394.70 480,884,090.04 478,734,688.29 474,703,885.40 473,217,658.12 469,793,728.83 468,660,847.56 465,823,677.08

$ 3.00 $ 3.04 $ 3.08 $ 3.12 $ 3.16 $ 3.21 $ 3.23 $ 3.42 $ 3.43 $ 3.62 $ 3.63 $ 3.83
5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%

450,497,440.30 447,241,310.57 444,285,551.74 441,411,146.67 438,818,353.19 436,402,311.72 434,451,729.63 430,793,776.00 429,445,024.74 426,337,808.91 425,309,719.16 422,734,986.95
37,541,453.36 37,270,109.21 37,023,795.98 36,784,262.22 36,568,196.10 36,366,859.31 36,204,310.80 35,899,481.33 35,787,085.39 35,528,150.74 35,442,476.60 35,227,915.58
(289,402.16) (271,344.14) (246,313.24) (239,533.76) (216,066.12) (201,336.79) (162,548.51) (304,829.47) (112,395.94) (258,934.65) (85,674.15) (214,561.02)
 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043

465,051,719.41 462,783,700.73 462,379,788.71 460,665,642.11 460,636,584.18 459,463,196.87 459,815,614.97 459,171,898.92 460,190,278.55 461,412,704.60 462,839,756.00
43017284.0451847 42807492.3179027 42770130.4555072 42611571.8953461 42608884.0364354 42500345.7100914 42532944.3845084 42473400.6500454 42567600.7658087 42680675.1758552 42812677.4301011
422,034,435.36 419,976,208.42 419,609,658.25 418,054,070.22 418,027,700.14 416,962,851.16 417,282,670.58 416,698,498.27 417,622,677.78 418,732,029.43 420,027,078.57
11,850,328.23 11,247,009.14 11,180,808.40 10,625,525.64 10,549,516.58 10,038,028.81 9,954,226.01 9,482,698.24 9,482,698.24 9,482,698.24 9,482,698.24
181,174,298.89 185,160,133.47 189,233,656.40 193,396,796.84 197,651,526.37 201,999,859.95 206,443,856.87 210,985,621.72 215,627,305.40 220,371,106.12 225,219,270.45
28,925,955.86 27,453,289.37 27,291,697.24 25,936,284.62 25,750,750.95 24,502,239.32 24,297,681.61 23,146,709.99 23,146,709.99 23,146,709.99 23,146,709.99
12,573,510.10 11,933,372.67 11,863,131.94 11,273,962.33 11,193,314.71 10,650,612.72 10,561,695.75 10,061,392.38 10,061,392.38 10,061,392.38 10,061,392.38
$ 5,197,512.38 $ 4,932,898.75 $ 4,903,863.33 $ 4,660,318.27 $ 4,626,980.95 $ 4,402,644.21 $ 4,365,888.60 $ 4,159,078.18 $ 4,159,078.18 $ 4,159,078.18 $ 4,159,078.18
363,487,128.80 364,409,638.48 364,370,157.33 365,557,979.35 365,907,136.96 367,369,326.09 368,103,178.60 369,848,619.49 370,772,799.00 371,882,150.65 373,177,199.79
123,585,623.79 123,899,277.08 123,885,853.49 124,289,712.98 124,408,426.57 124,905,570.87 125,155,080.72 125,748,530.63 126,062,751.66 126,439,931.22 126,880,247.93
239,901,505.01 240,510,361.40 240,484,303.84 241,268,266.37 241,498,710.39 242,463,755.22 242,948,097.88 244,100,088.86 244,710,047.34 245,442,219.43 246,296,951.86
11,850,328.23 11,247,009.14 11,180,808.40 10,625,525.64 10,549,516.58 10,038,028.81 9,954,226.01 9,482,698.24 9,482,698.24 9,482,698.24 9,482,698.24
251,751,833.23 251,757,370.54 251,665,112.24 251,893,792.02 252,048,226.97 252,501,784.03 252,902,323.89 253,582,787.10 254,192,745.58 254,924,917.67 255,779,650.10
$ 12,477,234.53
58,379.30 171,518.91 30,545.85 129,632.34 2,197.51 88,737.42 (26,651.62) 48,681.03 (77,014.96) (92,445.97) 35,002,256.55
251,810,212.53 251,928,889.45 251,695,658.09 252,023,424.35 252,050,424.47 252,590,521.44 252,875,672.27 253,631,468.13 254,115,730.62 254,832,471.70 303,259,141.18

2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043
12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630
28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400
6.33 6.47 6.62 6.76 6.91 7.06 7.22 7.38 7.54 7.70 7.87
81,528,434.50 83,322,060.06 85,155,145.38 87,028,558.58 88,943,186.87 90,899,936.98 92,899,735.59 94,943,529.78 97,032,287.43 99,166,997.75 101,348,671.70
181,174,298.89 185,160,133.47 189,233,656.40 193,396,796.84 197,651,526.37 201,999,859.95 206,443,856.87 210,985,621.72 215,627,305.40 220,371,106.12 225,219,270.45

3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70
0.96 0.91 0.91 0.86 0.86 0.81 0.81 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77
12,375,622.87 11,745,560.20 11,676,424.95 11,096,527.93 11,017,149.58 10,482,988.87 10,395,471.31 9,903,041.92 9,903,041.92 9,903,041.92 9,903,041.92
13,016,680.14 12,353,980.22 12,281,263.76 11,671,328.08 11,587,837.93 11,026,007.69 10,933,956.73 10,416,019.49 10,416,019.49 10,416,019.49 10,416,019.49
27,501,384.16 26,101,244.89 25,947,610.99 24,658,950.96 24,482,554.62 23,295,530.82 23,101,047.36 22,006,759.83 22,006,759.83 22,006,759.83 22,006,759.83
28,925,955.86 27,453,289.37 27,291,697.24 25,936,284.62 25,750,750.95 24,502,239.32 24,297,681.61 23,146,709.99 23,146,709.99 23,146,709.99 23,146,709.99
50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
7.89 7.72 7.56 7.39 7.24 7.08 6.93 6.78 6.63 6.49 6.35
 101,592,234.42 99,405,317.44 97,265,476.95 95,171,699.56 93,122,993.69 91,118,389.13 89,156,936.53 87,237,706.98 85,359,791.56 83,522,300.94 81,724,364.91
225,760,520.94 220,900,705.42 216,145,504.32 211,492,665.68 206,939,985.99 202,485,309.19 198,126,525.62 193,861,571.06 189,688,425.69 185,605,113.20 181,609,699.81
103,314,269.61 105,587,183.55 107,910,101.58 110,284,123.82 112,710,374.54 115,190,002.78 117,724,182.84 120,314,114.87 122,961,025.39 125,666,167.95 128,430,823.65
202,635,717.22 207,093,702.99 211,649,764.46 216,306,059.28 221,064,792.58 225,928,218.02 230,898,638.82 235,978,408.87 241,169,933.86 246,475,672.41 251,898,137.20
16,494,966.56 15,655,181.54 15,563,033.97 14,790,112.72 14,684,312.52 13,972,351.35 13,855,702.74 13,199,363.55 13,199,363.55 13,199,363.55 13,199,363.55
36,655,481.25 34,789,292.32 34,584,519.92 32,866,917.15 32,631,805.61 31,049,669.66 30,790,450.53 29,331,918.99 29,331,918.99 29,331,918.99 29,331,918.99
221,401,470.60 220,647,682.53 220,738,612.50 220,245,936.09 220,517,680.76 220,280,743.26 220,736,822.11 220,751,185.39 221,520,180.50 222,387,832.44 223,354,552.11
465,051,719.41 462,783,700.73 462,379,788.71 460,665,642.11 460,636,584.18 459,463,196.87 459,815,614.97 459,171,898.92 460,190,278.55 461,412,704.60 462,839,756.00

$ 3.85 $ 4.05 $ 4.08 $ 4.29 $ 4.32 $ 4.54 $ 4.58 $ 4.81 $ 4.81 $ 4.81 $ 4.81
5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%

422,034,435.36 419,976,208.42 419,609,658.25 418,054,070.22 418,027,700.14 416,962,851.16 417,282,670.58 416,698,498.27 417,622,677.78 418,732,029.43 420,027,078.57
35,169,536.28 34,998,017.37 34,967,471.52 34,837,839.18 34,835,641.68 34,746,904.26 34,773,555.88 34,724,874.86 34,801,889.82 34,894,335.79 35,002,256.55
(58,379.30) (171,518.91) (30,545.85) (129,632.34) (2,197.51) (88,737.42) 26,651.62 (48,681.03) 77,014.96 92,445.97 107,920.76
-35,002,256.55
 Depreciation
Total capital Expenditure 1,200,000,000.00
Yearly Depreciation 45,600,000.00

Initial Investment 1,200,000,000.00

Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Investment Percentage 30% 30% 20% 20%
Investment Amount (359,613,655.34) (136,361,600.91) (132,275,282.78) (85,508,761.00) (83,393,415.82)
Gross Revenue(Dispatch) In USD 235,848,004.52 234,222,202.14 232,709,738.20 231,309,547.70
Less: 9.25% revenue tax 21815940.4180014 21665553.6975454 21525650.7831338 21396133.1624749
Net revenue 214,032,064.10 212,556,648.44 211,184,087.41 209,913,414.54
Less: Depreciation 15,552,648.92 15,364,862.43 15,179,432.34 14,996,059.52
Less: Gas cost 59,882,181.09 61,259,471.26 62,668,439.10 64,109,813.20
Less: Variable Operation & Maintanance cost 17,083,396.54 16,877,127.43 16,673,446.65 16,472,025.61
Less: Fixed cost 16501769.7838757 16302523.3797027 16105777.171721 15911213.782385
Less: Other Regulatory Cost $ 6,821,337.25 $ 6,738,974.75 $ 6,657,645.76 $ 6,577,219.09
Profit Before Tax 98,190,730.52 157,273,160.44 156,567,785.49 155,956,896.54
Less: Corporate Tax 34% 33,384,848.38 53,472,874.55 53,233,047.07 53,025,344.82
Net Profit 64,805,882.14 103,800,285.89 103,334,738.42 102,931,551.72
Add: Depreciation 15,552,648.92 15,364,862.43 15,179,432.34 14,996,059.52
Operating Cash Flow 80,358,531.06 119,165,148.32 118,514,170.76 117,927,611.24
Salvage Value of Capital
Working Capital Recovery (17,836,005.34) 122,951.31 114,380.09 105,889.41
Cash Flow of AES Tiete(in USD) (359,613,655.34) 62,522,525.72 119,288,099.63 118,628,550.85 118,033,500.64

204,063,232.43

Sales Growth 0.04 NPV $562,932,636.48 Adjusted WACC 11.27%

Variable Cost (Protion of Sales) 0.41 IRR 29% WACC 9.27%
Fixed Cost $ 18,112,901.09 MIRR 16% Country Risk Premiu 2%
Adjusted WACC 0.1127

Revenue Calculation: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Total MMBtu of Gas needed in Dispatch Capacity 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630
Total MMBtu of Gas needed in Full Capacity 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400
Price of/Mmbtu in USD 4.09 4.31 4.43 4.56 4.65 4.76 4.87 4.98
Total Gas Cost in USD(Dispatch) 59,882,181.09 61,259,471.26 62,668,439.10 64,109,813.20
Total Gas Cost in USD(Capacity) 133,071,513.54 136,132,158.35 139,263,197.99 142,466,251.55
Variable cost:
Variable cost(Operation And Maintanence)/Mmbtu In BRL 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70
Variable cost/ Mmbtu in USD 1.26 1.25 1.23 1.22
Total Variable Cost In USD(Dispatch) 16,242,057.94 16,045,947.36 15,852,297.63 15,660,796.36
Total Variable Cost in USD(Dispatch) Escalated Inflation 17,083,396.54 16,877,127.43 16,673,446.65 16,472,025.61
Total Variable Cost In USD(Capacity) 36,093,462.09 35,657,660.80 35,227,328.06 34,801,769.69
Total Variable Cost in USD(Capacity) Escalated Inflation 37,963,103.43 37,504,727.63 37,052,103.66 36,604,501.36
Bid Price In BRL 50 50 50 50
Bid Price In USD 10.75 10.51 10.27 10.04
Revenue from Total Dispatch In USD 138,315,867.57 135,206,126.66 132,166,301.72 129,194,820.84
Revenue From Total Capacity in USD 307,368,594.60 300,458,059.24 293,702,892.71 287,099,601.86
Mark up on gas cost Dispatch 75,883,755.65 77,629,082.03 79,414,550.92 81,241,085.59
Mark up on gas cost Capacity 148,834,805.78 152,258,006.31 155,759,940.45 159,342,419.08
Mark up on Variable Cost(Dispatch) 21,648,381.29 21,386,993.44 21,128,885.56 20,873,641.27
Mark up on Variable Cost(Capacity) 48,107,513.99 47,526,652.10 46,953,079.01 46,385,869.49
Total revenue(Dispatched) USD 235,848,004.52 234,222,202.14 232,709,738.20 231,309,547.70
Total Revenue(Capacity) USD 504,310,914.36 500,242,717.65 496,415,912.18 492,827,890.44

Total MMBtu needed/Day:

Installed Capacity 500
Numbers of Hour per year 8760
Capacity Factor 0.9
Dispatch/year 0.5
Total Energy/year(MW/hour) 1971000
Required Mmbtu/MWh 6.53
Total MMBtu needed/Year(Full Capacity): 28601400
Total MMBtu needed/Year(Dispatch): 12870630

Assumed foreign Exchange rate of BRL to USD $ 2.64 $ 2.72 $ 2.81 $ 2.88 $ 2.93 $ 2.97 $ 3.00 $ 3.04
Customer Price Index 6.0% 5.5% 5.4% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%

Net revenue 214,032,064.10 212,556,648.44 211,184,087.41 209,913,414.54

Working Capital Requirement 17,836,005.34 17,713,054.04 17,598,673.95 17,492,784.54
Change in Working Capital 17,836,005.34 (122,951.31) (114,380.09) (105,889.41)

$ 3.64
 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

230,053,696.10 228,852,547.92 227,786,226.93 226,812,377.52 226,074,266.55 224,494,565.70 224,065,075.40 222,768,884.06 222,509,045.02 221,487,774.91 221,401,470.60 220,647,682.53 220,738,612.50
21279966.8892216 21168860.6826668 21070225.9912013 20980144.9207962 20911869.6557175 20765747.3269425 20726019.4742975 20606121.7756772 20582086.6648035 20487619.1790573 20479636.030606 20409910.6339551 20418321.6558769
208,773,729.21 207,683,687.24 206,716,000.94 205,832,232.60 205,162,396.89 203,728,818.37 203,339,055.92 202,162,762.29 201,926,958.36 201,000,155.73 200,921,834.57 200,237,771.90 200,320,290.84
14,807,794.69 14,614,787.36 14,417,290.24 14,215,554.53 14,112,741.94 13,335,079.75 13,313,688.15 12,599,711.74 12,560,446.65 11,904,397.58 11,850,328.23 11,247,009.14 11,180,808.40
65,520,229.09 67,027,194.36 68,501,792.63 70,008,832.07 71,549,026.37 73,123,104.95 74,731,813.26 76,375,913.16 78,056,183.24 79,773,419.28 81,528,434.50 83,322,060.06 85,155,145.38
16,265,231.09 16,053,227.28 15,836,291.78 15,614,700.52 15,501,768.74 14,647,566.24 14,624,069.20 13,839,820.67 13,796,690.97 13,076,071.19 13,016,680.14 12,353,980.22 12,281,263.76
15711459.8501802 15506673.9927313 15297124.3441809 15083077.4498489 14973990.5830467 14148870.5398241 14126173.4861321 13368625.7317653 13326964.4333186 12630879.1020154 12573510.0993923 11933372.6740487 11863131.9430827
$ 6,494,646.80 $ 6,409,994.46 $ 6,323,372.91 $ 6,234,892.34 $ 6,189,799.10 $ 5,848,719.19 $ 5,839,336.91 $ 5,526,189.36 $ 5,508,967.83 $ 5,221,227.01 $ 5,197,512.38 $ 4,932,898.75 $ 4,903,863.33
155,494,596.78 155,099,004.14 154,841,921.67 154,684,007.77 154,384,096.54 155,748,582.64 155,435,788.18 156,828,414.77 156,733,888.48 158,167,580.86 158,283,803.73 159,770,511.11 160,091,223.41
52,868,162.91 52,733,661.41 52,646,253.37 52,592,562.64 52,490,592.82 52,954,518.10 52,848,167.98 53,321,661.02 53,289,522.08 53,776,977.49 53,816,493.27 54,321,973.78 54,431,015.96
102,626,433.88 102,365,342.73 102,195,668.30 102,091,445.13 101,893,503.72 102,794,064.55 102,587,620.20 103,506,753.75 103,444,366.40 104,390,603.37 104,467,310.46 105,448,537.33 105,660,207.45
14,807,794.69 14,614,787.36 14,417,290.24 14,215,554.53 14,112,741.94 13,335,079.75 13,313,688.15 12,599,711.74 12,560,446.65 11,904,397.58 11,850,328.23 11,247,009.14 11,180,808.40
117,434,228.57 116,980,130.10 116,612,958.54 116,306,999.66 116,006,245.65 116,129,144.30 115,901,308.35 116,106,465.50 116,004,813.05 116,295,000.94 116,317,638.69 116,695,546.48 116,841,015.85

94,973.78 90,836.83 80,640.52 73,647.36 55,819.64 119,464.88 32,480.20 98,024.47 19,650.33 77,233.55 6,526.76 57,005.22 (6,876.58)
117,529,202.35 117,070,966.93 116,693,599.07 116,380,647.02 116,062,065.30 116,248,609.17 115,933,788.55 116,204,489.97 116,024,463.37 116,372,234.50 116,324,165.45 116,752,551.70 116,834,139.27

2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630
28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400
5.09 5.21 5.32 5.44 5.56 5.68 5.81 5.93 6.06 6.20 6.33 6.47 6.62
65,520,229.09 67,027,194.36 68,501,792.63 70,008,832.07 71,549,026.37 73,123,104.95 74,731,813.26 76,375,913.16 78,056,183.24 79,773,419.28 81,528,434.50 83,322,060.06 85,155,145.38
145,600,509.08 148,949,320.79 152,226,205.85 155,575,182.38 158,997,836.39 162,495,788.79 166,070,696.14 169,724,251.46 173,458,184.99 177,274,265.06 181,174,298.89 185,160,133.47 189,233,656.40

3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70
1.20 1.19 1.17 1.15 1.15 1.08 1.08 1.02 1.02 0.97 0.96 0.91 0.91
15,464,186.24 15,262,623.39 15,056,371.72 14,845,693.59 14,738,323.58 13,926,189.62 13,903,849.78 13,158,224.64 13,117,219.02 12,432,088.98 12,375,622.87 11,745,560.20 11,676,424.95
16,265,231.09 16,053,227.28 15,836,291.78 15,614,700.52 15,501,768.74 14,647,566.24 14,624,069.20 13,839,820.67 13,796,690.97 13,076,071.19 13,016,680.14 12,353,980.22 12,281,263.76
 34,364,858.31 33,916,940.86 33,458,603.83 32,990,430.20 32,751,830.17 30,947,088.05 30,897,443.97 29,240,499.19 29,149,375.60 27,626,864.39 27,501,384.16 26,101,244.89 25,947,610.99
36,144,957.97 35,673,838.40 35,191,759.50 34,699,334.48 34,448,374.97 32,550,147.21 32,497,931.56 30,755,157.05 30,659,313.26 29,057,935.97 28,925,955.86 27,453,289.37 27,291,697.24
50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
9.82 9.60 9.39 9.19 8.99 8.80 8.61 8.43 8.24 8.07 7.89 7.72 7.56
126,413,719.02 123,571,572.84 120,911,519.42 118,308,727.41 115,761,964.20 113,270,023.68 110,831,725.72 108,445,915.57 106,111,463.38 103,827,263.58 101,592,234.42 99,405,317.44 97,265,476.95
280,919,375.60 274,603,495.21 268,692,265.37 262,908,283.14 257,248,809.34 251,711,163.74 246,292,723.81 240,990,923.49 235,803,251.95 230,727,252.40 225,760,520.94 220,900,705.42 216,145,504.32
83,028,389.48 84,938,042.43 86,806,679.37 88,716,426.31 90,668,187.69 92,662,887.82 94,701,471.35 96,784,903.72 98,914,171.61 101,090,283.38 103,314,269.61 105,587,183.55 107,910,101.58
162,847,952.30 166,593,455.21 170,258,511.22 174,004,198.47 177,832,290.84 181,744,601.23 185,742,982.46 189,829,328.08 194,005,573.29 198,273,695.91 202,635,717.22 207,093,702.99 211,649,764.46
20,611,587.60 20,342,932.64 20,068,028.15 19,787,223.79 19,644,114.65 18,561,654.19 18,531,878.33 17,538,064.77 17,483,410.04 16,570,227.95 16,494,966.56 15,655,181.54 15,563,033.97
45,803,528.01 45,206,516.98 44,595,618.10 43,971,608.43 43,653,588.12 41,248,120.43 41,181,951.84 38,973,477.26 38,852,022.31 36,822,728.77 36,655,481.25 34,789,292.32 34,584,519.92
230,053,696.10 228,852,547.92 227,786,226.93 226,812,377.52 226,074,266.55 224,494,565.70 224,065,075.40 222,768,884.06 222,509,045.02 221,487,774.91 221,401,470.60 220,647,682.53 220,738,612.50
489,570,855.91 486,403,467.40 483,546,394.70 480,884,090.04 478,734,688.29 474,703,885.40 473,217,658.12 469,793,728.83 468,660,847.56 465,823,677.08 465,051,719.41 462,783,700.73 462,379,788.71

$ 3.08 $ 3.12 $ 3.16 $ 3.21 $ 3.23 $ 3.42 $ 3.43 $ 3.62 $ 3.63 $ 3.83 $ 3.85 $ 4.05 $ 4.08
5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%

208,773,729.21 207,683,687.24 206,716,000.94 205,832,232.60 205,162,396.89 203,728,818.37 203,339,055.92 202,162,762.29 201,926,958.36 201,000,155.73 200,921,834.57 200,237,771.90 200,320,290.84
17,397,810.77 17,306,973.94 17,226,333.41 17,152,686.05 17,096,866.41 16,977,401.53 16,944,921.33 16,846,896.86 16,827,246.53 16,750,012.98 16,743,486.21 16,686,480.99 16,693,357.57
(94,973.78) (90,836.83) (80,640.52) (73,647.36) (55,819.64) (119,464.88) (32,480.20) (98,024.47) (19,650.33) (77,233.55) (6,526.76) (57,005.22) 6,876.58
 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043

220,245,936.09 220,517,680.76 220,280,743.26 220,736,822.11 220,751,185.39 221,520,180.50 222,387,832.44 223,354,552.11

20372749.0887241 20397885.4704023 20375968.7519357 20418156.045436 20419484.6485206 20490616.6964461 20570874.5007073 20660296.0698926
199,873,187.01 200,119,795.29 199,904,774.51 200,318,666.07 200,331,700.74 201,029,563.81 201,816,957.94 202,694,256.04
10,625,525.64 10,549,516.58 10,038,028.81 9,954,226.01 9,482,698.24 9,482,698.24 9,482,698.24 9,482,698.24
87,028,558.58 88,943,186.87 90,899,936.98 92,899,735.59 94,943,529.78 97,032,287.43 99,166,997.75 101,348,671.70
11,671,328.08 11,587,837.93 11,026,007.69 10,933,956.73 10,416,019.49 10,416,019.49 10,416,019.49 10,416,019.49
11273962.3283159 11193314.7060757 10650612.7247523 10561695.7538306 10061392.3774315 10061392.3774315 10061392.3774315 10061392.3774315
$ 4,660,318.27 $ 4,626,980.95 $ 4,402,644.21 $ 4,365,888.60 $ 4,159,078.18 $ 4,159,078.18 $ 4,159,078.18 $ 4,159,078.18
161,642,052.69 162,162,145.13 163,787,481.07 164,502,898.97 166,212,512.45 166,910,375.52 167,697,769.65 168,575,067.75
54,958,297.91 55,135,129.34 55,687,743.56 55,930,985.65 56,512,254.23 56,749,527.68 57,017,241.68 57,315,523.03
106,683,754.77 107,027,015.78 108,099,737.51 108,571,913.32 109,700,258.22 110,160,847.84 110,680,527.97 111,259,544.71
10,625,525.64 10,549,516.58 10,038,028.81 9,954,226.01 9,482,698.24 9,482,698.24 9,482,698.24 9,482,698.24
117,309,280.42 117,576,532.36 118,137,766.32 118,526,139.33 119,182,956.46 119,643,546.08 120,163,226.21 120,742,242.96
$ 12,477,234.53
37,258.65 (20,550.69) 17,918.40 (34,490.96) (1,086.22) (58,155.26) (65,616.18) 16,891,188.00
117,346,539.07 117,555,981.67 118,155,684.71 118,491,648.37 119,181,870.24 119,585,390.83 120,097,610.03 150,110,665.48

2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043

12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630 12870630
28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400 28601400
6.76 6.91 7.06 7.22 7.38 7.54 7.70 7.87
87,028,558.58 88,943,186.87 90,899,936.98 92,899,735.59 94,943,529.78 97,032,287.43 99,166,997.75 101,348,671.70
193,396,796.84 197,651,526.37 201,999,859.95 206,443,856.87 210,985,621.72 215,627,305.40 220,371,106.12 225,219,270.45

3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70 3.70

0.86 0.86 0.81 0.81 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.77
11,096,527.93 11,017,149.58 10,482,988.87 10,395,471.31 9,903,041.92 9,903,041.92 9,903,041.92 9,903,041.92
11,671,328.08 11,587,837.93 11,026,007.69 10,933,956.73 10,416,019.49 10,416,019.49 10,416,019.49 10,416,019.49
 24,658,950.96 24,482,554.62 23,295,530.82 23,101,047.36 22,006,759.83 22,006,759.83 22,006,759.83 22,006,759.83
25,936,284.62 25,750,750.95 24,502,239.32 24,297,681.61 23,146,709.99 23,146,709.99 23,146,709.99 23,146,709.99
50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
7.39 7.24 7.08 6.93 6.78 6.63 6.49 6.35
95,171,699.56 93,122,993.69 91,118,389.13 89,156,936.53 87,237,706.98 85,359,791.56 83,522,300.94 81,724,364.91
211,492,665.68 206,939,985.99 202,485,309.19 198,126,525.62 193,861,571.06 189,688,425.69 185,605,113.20 181,609,699.81
110,284,123.82 112,710,374.54 115,190,002.78 117,724,182.84 120,314,114.87 122,961,025.39 125,666,167.95 128,430,823.65
216,306,059.28 221,064,792.58 225,928,218.02 230,898,638.82 235,978,408.87 241,169,933.86 246,475,672.41 251,898,137.20
14,790,112.72 14,684,312.52 13,972,351.35 13,855,702.74 13,199,363.55 13,199,363.55 13,199,363.55 13,199,363.55
32,866,917.15 32,631,805.61 31,049,669.66 30,790,450.53 29,331,918.99 29,331,918.99 29,331,918.99 29,331,918.99
220,245,936.09 220,517,680.76 220,280,743.26 220,736,822.11 220,751,185.39 221,520,180.50 222,387,832.44 223,354,552.11
460,665,642.11 460,636,584.18 459,463,196.87 459,815,614.97 459,171,898.92 460,190,278.55 461,412,704.60 462,839,756.00

$ 4.29 $ 4.32 $ 4.54 $ 4.58 $ 4.81 $ 4.81 $ 4.81 $ 4.81

5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%

199,873,187.01 200,119,795.29 199,904,774.51 200,318,666.07 200,331,700.74 201,029,563.81 201,816,957.94 202,694,256.04

16,656,098.92 16,676,649.61 16,658,731.21 16,693,222.17 16,694,308.40 16,752,463.65 16,818,079.83 16,891,188.00
(37,258.65) 20,550.69 (17,918.40) 34,490.96 1,086.22 58,155.26 65,616.18 73,108.17
-16,891,188.00
Probabilit Net Cash Flow for each year Discount Rate(USD) 11.2700%
0.1 157,232,003.00 Annuity Factor 8.2584701288299
0.25 209,642,670.70 Expected CF 264,004,562.19
0.35 235,848,004.52 PV of Expected CF 2,180,273,790.75
0.2 314,464,006.00 Country Risk Premium 2% WACC
0.1 504,310,914.36 Assumption
𝑅_𝑓 5%

Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
359,613,655.34 157232003.00 157232003.00 157232003.00 157232003.00 157232003.00 157232003.00
359,613,655.34 209642670.70 209642670.70 209642670.70 209642670.70 209642670.70 209642670.70
359,613,655.34 235848004.52 235848004.52 235848004.52 235848004.52 235848004.52 235848004.52
359,613,655.34 314464006.00 314464006.00 314464006.00 314464006.00 314464006.00 314464006.00
359,613,655.34 504310914.36 504310914.36 504310914.36 504310914.36 504310914.36 504310914.36

E[R] 5.06282258298658
Variance 4.45125935079763
SD 2.10980078462343

S 2,180,273,790.75
X 359,613,655.34
T 5
𝑅_𝑓 0.05
s^2 4.45125935079763
s 2.10980078462343

𝑑_1 2.79382776702373
𝑑_2 -1.92383020637664

𝑁𝑑_1 0.99739558935902
〖𝑁𝑑〗 _2 0.02718793492696
CE 2,166,980,810.96
 9.27%

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
157232003.00 157232003.00 157232003.00 157232003.00 157232003.00 157232003.00 157232003.00 157232003.00 157232003.00 157232003.00
209642670.70 209642670.70 209642670.70 209642670.70 209642670.70 209642670.70 209642670.70 209642670.70 209642670.70 209642670.70
235848004.52 235848004.52 235848004.52 235848004.52 235848004.52 235848004.52 235848004.52 235848004.52 235848004.52 235848004.52
314464006.00 314464006.00 314464006.00 314464006.00 314464006.00 314464006.00 314464006.00 314464006.00 314464006.00 314464006.00
504310914.36 504310914.36 504310914.36 504310914.36 504310914.36 504310914.36 504310914.36 504310914.36 504310914.36 504310914.36
 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
157232003.00 157232003.00 157232003.00 157232003.00 157232003.00 157232003.00 157232003.00 157232003.00 157232003.00
209642670.70 209642670.70 209642670.70 209642670.70 209642670.70 209642670.70 209642670.70 209642670.70 209642670.70
235848004.52 235848004.52 235848004.52 235848004.52 235848004.52 235848004.52 235848004.52 235848004.52 235848004.52
314464006.00 314464006.00 314464006.00 314464006.00 314464006.00 314464006.00 314464006.00 314464006.00 314464006.00
504310914.36 504310914.36 504310914.36 504310914.36 504310914.36 504310914.36 504310914.36 504310914.36 504310914.36
P V for the Cash Flow Return Rate Probability Expected Return Variance
1,298,495,800.07 2.61080782331227 0.1 0.2610807823312 0.60123763816607
1,731,327,733.70 3.81441043184852 0.25 0.9536026079621 0.389633224777294
1,947,743,700.27 4.4162117354277 0.35 1.5456741073997 0.146336955863288
2,596,991,600.14 6.22161564662453 0.2 1.2443231293249 0.268560272867085
4,164,836,621.88 10.5814195596863 0.1 1.0581419559686 3.04549125912389
5.0628225829866 4.45125935079763
 True NPV Calculation
Traditional NPV 40,741,912.00
Real option value 2,166,980,810.96
True NPV 2,207,722,722.96
Revenue:
Salvage Value
Land
 Assumption
For the capacity revenue, we consider the Dispatchable unit
5% of the capital Expenditure
The government is leasing the land for 25 years