Probability PDF
Probability PDF
If p is the probability that a person will receive a sum of money P(AandB) P(A) P(B)
S, the mathematical expectation is defined as:
Dependent Events(Conditional Probability)
E pS
Two events are dependent if the occurrence or non-occurrence
Where: of one affect probability of the occurrence of the other.
p - probability of success
S - sum or prize
P(AandB) P(A) P(B/A)
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CERTC-DAVAO Probability
P N!
P(B/A) AandB P p1r1 p2 r2 pk rk
PA r1 ! r2 ! ... rk !
IX. BAYE’S THEOREM
XIII. Hypergeometric Probability
Let E1, E2, ... , En be a set of mutually exclusive events that
together form the sample space S. Let X be any event from the Suppose a population consists of N items, p of which are
same sample space, such that P(X) > 0. Then, successes. And a random sample drawn from that population
consists of n items, r of which are successes. Then the
hypergeometric probability is:
P E P X/E
P E /X i i
i P(E )P X/E ... P E P X/E
1 1 n n
P
p Cr q Cnr
NCn
X. BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
XIV. Geometric Probability
The binomial probability refers to the probability that a
binomial experiment result in exactly r successes. Also Probability that first head appears on nth toss
known as Repeated Trials Probability.
P 1 p n1 p
P nCr pr qn r
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CERTC-DAVAO Probability
XVII. Z Probability
In probability theory, the normal distribution is a very Sample Problems
common continuous probability distribution. Normal
1. Roll a pair of dice one time. What is the probability of
distributions are important in statistics and are often used in
getting a sum of 8?
the natural and social sciences to represent real-
2. A number from 1 to 1000 (inclusive) is randomly selected.
valued random variables whose distributions are not known.
What is the probability that it will be divisible by 4 and 5?
A random variable with a Gaussian distribution is said to
3. A committee of 5 is to be selected from a group of 6 men
be normally distributed and is called a normal deviate.
and 9 women. If the selection is made randomly, what is
the probability that the committee consists of 3 men and
two women?
4. 5 cards are randomly selected without replacement from
an ordinary deck of playing cards. What is the probability
of getting exactly 2 red cards?
5. If the odds against event E are 2:7, find the probability of
success.
6. If a man purchases a raffle ticket, he can win a first prize
of P5000 or a second prize of P2000 with probabilities
0.001 and 0.003. What should be a fair price to pay for the
ticket?
Standard Normal Distribution 7. One card is drawn from a standard deck of 52 playing
The standardized value of a normally distributed random cards. What is the probability that the card drawn is either
variable is called a Z score and is calculated using the a heart or a spade card?
following formula. 8. One card is drawn from a standard deck of 52 playing
cards. What is the probability that the card drawn is either
a heart or a face card?
xμ 9. A single card is drawn from a standard 52- card deck.
z
σ Determine the probability that the single card drawn is a
four, a five or a spade.
10. John draws two cards from a pack of playing cards (jokers
x = the value that is being standardized excluded). If John will not replace the first drawn card
μ = the mean of the distribution back to the pack before drawing the second card, what is
σ= standard deviation of the distribution the probability that both cards are face cards?
11. A bag contains 3 white balls and 5 black balls. If two balls
are drawn in succession without replacement, what is the
Probability lesser than a z-value P(z < a) probability that both balls are black?
12. A box contains 4 black balls and 6 white balls. What is the
probability of getting one black ball and one white ball in
two consecutive draws from the box without replacing the
ball every after drawing?
13. In the game of poker 5 cards are drawn from a pack of 52
well-shuffled cards. Find the probability that 4 are aces.
Probability greater than a z-value P(z > a) 14. In the game of poker 5 cards are drawn from a pack of 52
well-shuffled cards. Find the probability that 3 are of any
one suit and 2 are of another.
15. In a survey of 120 reviewees, 80 students enrolled at
review center A, 60 students reviewed at review center B,
and 20 students enrolled in both review center. If a
student is selected at random, what is the probability that
he enrolled in review center A given that he enrolled in
Probability between z-values P(a<z<b) review center B?
16. In a certain group of people, it is known that 40% of the
people take Vitamins C and E on a daily basis. It is known
that 75% take Vitamin C on a daily basis. If a person is
selected at random, what is the probability that the person
takes Vitamin E given that the person takes Vitamin C?
17. Three machines A, B, and C produce respectively 50%,
30%, and 20% of the total number of items of a factory.
Probability outside of a range of z-values The percentages of defective output of these machines
P(z<a or z>b) are 3%, 4%, and 5%.
a.) If an item is selected at random, find the probability
that the item is defective.
b.) If an item is selected at random and is found defective,
what is the probability it was produced by machine A?
18. In certain city, 30 percent of all cars emit excessive
amounts of pollutants. The probability is 0.95 that a car
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CERTC-DAVAO Probability
emitting excessive amounts of pollutants will fail the 33. A person conducting telephone surveys must get 3 more
state’s vehicular emission test, and the probability is 0.15 completed surveys before their job is finished. On each
that a car not emitting excessive amounts of pollutants will randomly dialed number, there is 9% chance of reaching
also fail the test. If a car fails the emission test, what is the an adult who will complete the survey. What is the
probability that it actually emits excessive amounts of probability the 3rd completed survey occurs in the 10th call.
emissions? 34. The final scores of students in a graduating course are
19. In a family of four children, what is the probability of distributed normally with a mean of 72 and a standard
having a set of three and one (i.e. three sons and a deviation of 10. What is the probability that a student’s
daughter or three daughters and a son)? score will be below 65?
20. Find the probability that a couple having 3 children will 35. The final scores of students in a graduating course are
have at least one girl. distributed normally with a mean of 72 and a standard
21. If the probability that a missile will hit the target is 3/5, find deviation of 10. What is the probability that a student’s
the probability of exactly 4 hits out of 6 tries. score will be above 78?
22. From past experience, it is known that 90% of one-year- 36. The final scores of students in a graduating course are
old children can distinguish their mother’s voice from the distributed normally with a mean of 72 and a standard
voice of a similar sounding female.
A random sample of deviation of 10. What is the probability that a student’s
25 one year-old children are given this voice recognition score will be between 65 and 78?
test. Find the probability that all 25 children recognize their 37. The final scores of students in a graduating course are
mother’s voice. distributed normally with a mean of 72 and a standard
23. A manufacturer has determined that a certain machine deviation of 10. What is the probability that a student’s
averages one faulty resistor for every 1000 it produces. score will be below 65 or above 78?
What is the probability that an order of 200 resistors will 38. Suppose the temperature during June is normally
have one or more faulty resistors? distributed with mean 68º and standard deviation 6º. Find
24. If the probability that the average freshman will not the probability that the temperature is between 70º and
complete 5 years of an engineering course is 2/5, what is 80º.
the probability that in every 4 freshmen at least 3 will 39. Each of the two triangles in the figure shown has an area
complete the 5-year course? of 12 cm2. The dimensions of the rectangle in the middle
25. A receptionist in a certain call center receives an average of the figure are 10 cm by 4 cm. If a point is selected at
of 1 phone call per hour. What is the probability that she random inside the figure, what is the probability that the
will receive no phone call next hour? point will be inside the rectangle as well?
26. Suppose that the average number of telephone calls
arriving at the switch board of a small telecommunication
company is 30 calls per hour. What is the probability that
no calls will arrive in the next 3 minutes? 40. A point is selected at random inside a circle. Find the
27. At a telephone enquiry system the number of phone calls probability that the point is closer to the center of the circle
regarding relevant enquiry follow Poisson distribution with than to its circumference?
an average of 5 phone calls during 10–minute time
intervals. What is the probability that there is at most one
phone call during a 10–minute time period.
28. Suppose a card is drawn randomly from an ordinary deck
of playing cards, and then put back in the deck. This
exercise is repeated five times. What is the probability of
drawing 1 spade, 1 heart, 1 diamond, and 2 clubs?
29. The probabilities that a page of a training manual will have
0, 1, 2, or 3 typographical errors are 0.75, 0.15, 0.10, and
0.05 respectively. If 6 pages are randomly selected, the
probability that 2 will contain no errors, 2 will contain one
error, one will contain 2 errors, and one will contain 3
errors is
30. A certain union chapter has 32 male and 26 female
members. An important committee of 7 people needs to
be struck. The presidents says they will randomly select 7
of the members to be on the committee.
A. What is probability there are exactly 6 women on the
committee?
B. What is probability there at least 6 women on the
committee?
C. What is probability there at most 6 women on the
committee?
31. Juliana randomly presses letter keys on Mr. Garvin’s
laptop one at a time. What is the probability that the third
press will be the first vowel?
32. A fair coin is tossed repeatedly until it comes up heads.
What is the probability that the first head occurs on the
fifth toss?
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CERTC-DAVAO Probability
Take Home Exam 10. the probability that a single person gets a test value
between 74 and 78 for their exam score. Assume that the
1. If a coin is tossed ten times then what will be the exams are normally distributed with a mean of 82 and a
probability for getting 7 heads and 3 tails in 10 tosses? standard deviation of 4.
A. 15/128 * C. 15/ 127 A. 0.2359 C. 0.1359*
B. 17/128 D. 17/127 B. 0.3359 D. 0.4359
2. In an exam only ten percent students can qualify. If a 11. Jeremiah makes 25%, percent of the three-point shots he
group of 4 students have appeared, find the probability attempts. For a warm up, Jeremiah likes to shoot three-
that at most one student will qualify? point shots until he successfully makes one. Let M be the
A. 0.927 C. 0.546 number of shots it takes Jeremiah to successfully make
B. 0.729 * D. 0.645 his first three-point shot. Assume that the results of each
shot are independent. Find the probability that Jeremiah's
3. In a restaurant seventy percent of people order for first successful shot occurs on his 3rd attempt.
Chinese food and thirty percent for Italian food. A group of A. 9/65 C. 9/64 *
three persons enter the restaurant. Find the probability of B. 8/65 D. 8/67
at least two of them ordering for Italian food.
12. A video game gives a special bonus when the player
A. 0.72 C. 0.27 *
collects a coin if the player collects the coin at the moment
B. 0.54 D. 0.45
when the last digit of the milliseconds in the game's timer
4. Suppose that 10% of inmates in a large prison are known
equals 1. Players don't see this timer, so all 10 digits are
to be innocent. A non-profit group randomly selects 20
equally likely, and there is a 1 in 10 chance that a player
inmates from this prison. Find the probability the group will
gets the bonus on any given coin collected. Let C be the
find at least 3 innocent inmates.
number of coins a player has to collect to first get the
A. 0.323 * C. 0.435 bonus. Assume that the last digits are independent of
B. 0.896 D. 0.765 each other. Find the probability that the player gets the
5. During a severe thunderstorm, any transmission line is bonus on the 4th coin the player collects.
damaged with probability 0.04, independently of other A. 829/10,000 C. 629/10,000
transmission lines. A city with 75 transmission lines is hit B. 729/10,000 * D. 929/10,000
by a severe thunderstorm. What is the probability that at 13. Fionn observed that 91%, percent of the background
least 5 of them get damaged? checks he processes are for potential employees who
A. 0.815 C. 0.185 * have already interviewed. Let BBB be the number of
B. 0.518 D. 0.158 background checks Fionn processes to get his first
6. The number of calls coming per minute into a hotels background check for a potential employee who has not
reservation center is Poisson random variable with mean yet interviewed for the job. Assume that the interview
3. (a) Find the probability that no calls come in a given 1 statuses are independent. Find the probability that the 8th
minute period. (b) Assume that the number of calls background check that Fionn processes is the first for
arriving in two different minutes is independent. Find the which the potential employee has not yet interviewed.
probability that atleast two calls will arrive in a given two A. 0.047 * C. 0.057
minute period. B. 0.067 D. 0.077
A. e −3, 1 − 7e −6 * C. e −3, 1 − 5e −6 14. An online retailer determines that people click on a
B. e3, 1 – 7e −6 C. e3, 1 − 5e −6 particular advertisement 2%percent of the times it
appears. Let V be the number of times the advertisement
7. Suppose I have 50 UF students in my class and 30% of
appears to get the first person to click on it. Assume each
them are graduates. If I take a random sample of 10
click is independent. Find the probability that a person first
students from them find the probability that the number of
clicks on the advertisement the 8thtime it appears.
graduates is atmost 4.
A. 0.017 * C. 0.027
A. 0.8750 * C. 0.7850 B. 0.037 D. 0.047
B. 0.5078 D. 0.5087
15. In a game of luck, a turn consists of a player continuing to
8. Each computer in a lab has a 15% chance to be infected roll a pair of six-sided dice until they roll a double (two of
with a virus. If a computer is infected, an antivirus software the same face values). Let X be the number of rolls in one
finds the virus with probability 0.9. If a computer is not turn.
infected, the software will still generate a false alarm and
A. Binomial C. Geometric *
report a virus with probability 0.10. If the antivirus software
B. Hypergoemetric D. Poisson
reports a virus, what is the probability that indeed, the
computer is infected? 16. In a class, 40% of the students study math and science.
A. 29/44 C. 27/44 * 60% of the students study math. What is the probability of
B. 7/25 D. 9/25 a student studying science given he/she is already
studying math?
9. Suppose that there are two websites, A and B, for renting
books. The site A receives 60% of all orders. Among the A. 1/3 C. 2/3 *
orders placed on site A, 75% arrive on time. Among the B. 3/4 D. 1/2
orders placed on site B, 90% arrive on time. Given that an 17. What is the probability of the occurrence of a number that
order arrived on time, find the probability that the order is odd or less than 5 when a fair die is rolled?
was placed on site B. A. 1/6 C. 5/6*
A. 4/9 * C. 5/9 B. 1/3 D. 2/3
B. 1/3
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CERTC-DAVAO Probability
18. A bag contains blue and red balls. Two balls are drawn 29. A bag contains 4 white, 5 red and 6 blue balls. Three balls
randomly without replacement. The probability of selecting are drawn at random from the bag. The probability that all
a blue and then a red ball is 0.2. The probability of of them are red, is:
selecting a blue ball in the first draw is 0.5. What is the A. 1/22 C. 3/22
probability of drawing a red ball, given that the first ball B. 2/91 * D. 2/ 77
drawn was blue? 30. From a bag containing 4 black balls and 5 white balls,
A. 0.4 * C. 0.2 two balls are drawn one at a time. Find the probability
B. 0.1 D. 0.5 that both balls are black. Assume that the 1st ball is
19. Consider another example where a pack contains 4 blue, returned before the second ball is drawn.
2 red and 3 black pens. If a pen is drawn at random from A. 4/9 C. 16/81 *
the pack, replaced and the process repeated 2 more B. 1/6 D. 5/9
times, What is the probability of drawing 2 blue pens and 1 31. Two cards are drawn together from a pack of 52 cards.
black pen? The probability that one is a spade and one is a heart, is:
A. 16/243 * C. 17/243 A. 3/20 B. 29/34
B. 16/343 D. 17/343 B. 47/100 D. 13/102*
20. A pack contains 4 blue, 2 red and 3 black pens. If 2 pens 32. A bag contains 6 black and 8 white balls. One ball is
are drawn at random from the pack, NOT replaced and drawn at random. What is the probability that the ball
then another pen is drawn. What is the probability of drawn is white?
drawing 2 blue pens and 1 black pen?
A. 3/ 4 C. 4/7 *
A. 1/14 * C. 3/14 B. 1/8 D. 3/7
B. 5/14 D. 9/14
33. The lifespans of people in a certain city constitute a
21. Tickets numbered 1 to 20 are mixed up and then a ticket normal distribution with a mean of 72 years and a
is drawn at random. What is the probability that the ticket standard deviation of 6 years. What is the probability that
drawn has a number which is a multiple of 3 or 5? a randomly selected person from the city will live more
A. 1/2 C. 2/5 than 75 years?
B. 8/15 D. 9/20 * A. 0.3085 * C. 0.4085
22. A bag contains 2 red, 3 green and 2 blue balls. Two balls B. 0.5085 D. 0.6085
are drawn at random. What is the probability that none of 34. A scientist is measuring the speed of a projectile launched
the balls drawn is blue? from a newly designed device. The mean speed of the
A. 10/21* C. 11/21 projectiles is known to be 315 meters per second with a
B. 2/7 D. 5/7 standard deviation of 11 meters per second. What is the
23. A bag contains 2 red, 3 green and 2 blue balls. Two balls maximum speed for 95% of the projectiles?
are drawn at random. What is the probability that none of A. 333.3 m/s * C. 444.4 m/s
the balls drawn is blue? B. 555.5 m/s D. 666.6 m/s
A. 10/21* C.11/21
B. 2/7 D. 5/7 35. A bag contains three white and five black balls. If two balls
are drawn in succession without replacement, determine
24. What is the probability of getting a sum 9 from two throws the probability that both balls are white.
of a dice?
A.1/ 6 C.1/9 * A. 1/14 C. 3/28*
B.1/8 D.1/12 B. 4/7 D. 5/28
25. In a class, there are 15 boys and 10 girls. Three students 36. A coin is biased so that the probability of heads is 2/3.
are selected at random. The probability that 1 girl and 2 What is the probability that exactly four heads come up
boys are selected, is: when the coin is flipped seven times, assuming that the
A. 21/46 * C. 1/50 flips are independent?
B. 25/117 D.3/25 A. 650/2187 C. 560/2187 *
26. During the board exam, there were 350 examinees from B. 650/1278 D. 560/1278
Luzon, 250 from Visayas, and 400 from Mindanao. The 37. How many outcomes are there in the sample space when
results of the exams that flunkers from Luzon, Visayas, two coins are tossed?
and Mindanao are 3%, 5%, and 7% of their group. If a A.1 C. 2
name of a flunker is picked at random, what is the B. 3 D. 4*
probability that it came from Mindanao?
38. Which distribution can be used when the variable occurs
A. 0.549* C. 0.553
over time?
B. 0.581 D. 0.576
27. From a pack of 52 cards, two cards are drawn together at A. Geometric C. Multinomial
random. What is the probability of both the cards being B. Hypergeometric D. Poisson*
kings?
39. A man is dealt 4 spade cards from an ordinary deck of 52
A. 1/15 C. 25/57
cards. If he is given three more cards, find the probability
B. 35/256 D. 1/221 *
p that at least one of the additional cards is also a spade.
28. Two dice are tossed. The probability that the total score is
A. 8157/17,296 * C. 7815/17,296
a prime number is:
B. 8157/17,692 D. 7815/17,692
A. 1/6 C. 5/12 *
B. 1/2 D. 7/9
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CERTC-DAVAO Probability
40. We have two boxes. The first contains two green balls and
seven red balls; the second contains four green balls and “Shoot for the Moon, even if you miss
three red balls. Bob selects a ball by first choosing one of you’ll land among the stars.”
the two boxes at random. He then selects one of the balls
GODBLESS AND MORE POWER!
in this box at random. If Bob has selected a red ball, what
is the probability that he selected a ball from the first box? genq_2018
A. 0.546 C. 0.654
B. 0.645 * D. 0.564
41. The probability is 0.02 that an item produced by a factory
is defective. A shipment of 10,000 items is sent to its
warehouse. Find the standard deviation.
A. 24 C. 18
B. 14* D. 26
42. Products produced by a machine have a 3% defective
rate. What is the probability that the first defective occurs
in the fifth item inspected
A. 0.01340 C. 0.01278
B. 0.02656 * D. 0.09823
43. A collection of 15 transistors contains 3 that are defective.
If 2 transistors are selected at random, what is the
probability that at least 1 of them is good?
A. 1/35 B. 1/5
B. 34/35 * D. 4/5
44. Which of the following row vectors is a probability vector?
A. (3/4,0,-1/4,1/2) C. (1/4, 0,1/4, 1/2)*
B. (3/4,1/2,0,1/4) D. (1/4, 1/8, 1, 1/8, -1)
45. When two dice are rolled, what are the odds against
getting doubles?
A. 1:5 C. 1:6
B. 5:1* D. 6:1
46. Each of the two triangles in the figure shown has an area
of 12 cm2. The dimensions of the rectangle in the middle
of the figure are 10 cm by 4 cm. If a point is selected at
random inside the figure, what is the probability that the
point will be inside the rectangle as well?
A. 0.375 C. 0.600
B. 0.400 D. 0.625*
47. Three coins are tossed; what is the probability of getting 3
heads if it is known that at least two heads were obtained?
A. 1/4* C. 2/3
B. 1/2 D. 3/8
48. Let X equal the IQ of a randomly selected American.
Assume X ~ N(100, 162). What is the probability that a
randomly selected American has an IQ below90?
A. 0.2643* C. 0.3643
B. 0.4643 D. 0.5643
49. What is the probability that exactly two people in a group
of seven having a birthday on October 24?
A. 1.2x10-18 C. 7.4x10-6
B. 2.4x10-17 D. 1.6x10-4 *
50. Bob is a high school basketball player. He is a 70% free
throw shooter. That means his probability of making a free
throw is 0.70. During the season, what is the probability
that Bob makes his third free throw on his fifth shot?
A. 0.18522 * C. 0.34256
B. 0.67245 D. 0.29672
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