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Event Tree Analyisis

Event tree analysis (ETA) is a technique used to identify and evaluate potential accident scenarios following an initiating event. It employs a logic-based tree structure called an event tree to visually map out all possible sequences of events. The event tree diagrams show the outcomes of an initiating event based on whether subsequent safety functions succeed or fail. ETA is useful for determining the consequences of failures and evaluating the probability of different outcomes. It provides a systematic way to assess risks in complex systems.

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ELVIS KIPKORIR
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513 views

Event Tree Analyisis

Event tree analysis (ETA) is a technique used to identify and evaluate potential accident scenarios following an initiating event. It employs a logic-based tree structure called an event tree to visually map out all possible sequences of events. The event tree diagrams show the outcomes of an initiating event based on whether subsequent safety functions succeed or fail. ETA is useful for determining the consequences of failures and evaluating the probability of different outcomes. It provides a systematic way to assess risks in complex systems.

Uploaded by

ELVIS KIPKORIR
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
You are on page 1/ 27

Safety & Risk Engineering

Event Tree Analysis


(ETA)

Course lecturer: Dr. Musamali

1
Event tree analysis (ETA):

• Is a technique of identifying and evaluating the sequence


of events in a potential accident scenario following the
occurrence of an initiating event.

• ETA utilizes a visual logic tree structure known as an event


tree (ET).

• It is a visual representation of all the events which can


lead to failure in a system.

2
ETA employs a logic in which:

• An event either HAS or HAS NOT happened or

• A component HAS or HAS NOT failed

• As the number of events increases, the picture looks


like the branches of a tree.

• That’s why is called Event Tree Analysis.

3
• The objective of ETA is to determine:
– Whether the initiating event will develop into a serious
mishap or

– If the initiating event is sufficiently controlled by the


safety functions and procedures implemented in the
system design.

• An ETA can result in many different possible outcomes from


a single initiating event, and it provides the capability to
obtain a probability for each outcome .

• ETA is valuable in analyzing the consequences arising from a


failure or undesired event.

4
• ETA evaluates potential accident outcomes that might result
following an equipment failure or process upset known as an
initiating event (IE).

• It is a “forward-thinking” process,

– i.e. the analyst begins with an IE and develops the


following sequences of events that describes potential
accidents, accounting for both the successes and failures
of the safety functions as the accident progresses.

5
The ETA technique is based on the following definitions:

Accident scenario:

Series of events that ultimately result in an accident. The


sequence of events begins with an initiating event and is
(usually) followed by one or more pivotal events that lead to
the undesired end state.

Initiating event (IE):

Failure or undesired event that initiates the start of an accident


sequence. The IE may result in a mishap, depending upon
successful operation of the hazard counter measure methods
designed into the system .
6
Pivotal events:
Intermediary events between the IE and the final mishap .
These are the failure / success events of the design safety
methods established to prevent the IE from resulting in a
mishap.
• If a pivotal event works successfully, it stops the accident
scenario and is referred to as a mitigating event.
• If a pivotal event fails to work, then the accident scenario
is allowed to progress and is referred to as an aggravating
event.

Event tree (ET)


Graphical model of an accident scenario that yields multiple
outcomes and outcome probabilities.

7
Methodology for ETA

• An Event Tree begins with an initiating event, e.g.


 a component failure or
 an increase in temperature/pressure or
 a release of a hazardous substance.

• The consequences of the events are followed through a


series of possible paths. This is represented in an Event
Tree Diagram (ETD)

• Each path is assigned a probability of occurrence and the


probability of the various possible outcomes can be
calculated.

8
Event tree diagram (ETD):
ETD provides the following information:
i. Initiating event (IE)
ii. System pivotal events
iii. Outcomes
iv. Event and outcome probabilities

• Each event is divided into two paths, success and failure.


The success path always is the top path and the failure
path is the lower path.

9
• The pivotal events include successes or failures of these
responses or possibly the occurrence or nonoccurrence of
external conditions or key phenomena.

• The end states are formulated according to the decisions


being supported by the analysis.

• Scenarios are classified into end states according to the


kind and severity of consequences, ranging from
completely successful outcomes to losses of various kinds,
such as; 10
i. Loss of life or injury/illness to personnel

ii. Damage to or loss of equipment or property

iii. Unexpected or collateral damage as a result of tests

iv. Failure of mission

v. Loss of system availability

vi. Damage to the environment

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Event Tree Diagram cont’d

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Event Tree Analysis concept -Probabilities

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Event Tree Analysis concept cont’d

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ETA Overview

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Event Tree Process

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Worked out example: Fire Protection System

In a chemical plant, fire protection is provided by a


sprinkler system. In the event of fire in the plant, smoke
detector will either detect the rise in temperature or it will
not. If the detector succeeds, the alarm system and/or
sprinkler system will switch on or not.

Derive an Event Tree for this system.

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Fire Protection System

18
Simplified Event Tree
Component or
event 

19
Quantification of Event Tree Diagram

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Sample solution

21
• From an example; ETA for a fire detection and suppression
system in an office building, The ETA analyzes all the possible
outcomes of a system fire.

• The IE for the ET is “fire starts.” Note the range of outcomes


resulting from the success or failure of the safety subsystems
(pivotal events) .

• Note from this example that when computing the success / fail
probability for each contributing PE must always add up to 1.0,
based on the reliability formula that:
PSUCCESS + PFAILURE = 1.

• Also note that in this case there are three contributing PEs that
generate five possible outcomes each with a different
probability. 22
The Figure below contains an example ETA for an automobile
system, where the car battery has failed. The dead battery is
the IE that begins the scenario analysis.

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Advantages of ETA
• A structured, demanding, and methodical approach.
• A large portion of the work can be computerized.
• Can be effectively performed on varying levels of design
detail.
• Visual model displaying cause / effect relations tips.
• Relatively easy to learn, do, and follow.
• Models complex system relationships in an
understandable manner.
• Follows fault paths across system boundaries.
• Combines hardware, software , environment, and human
interaction.
• Permits probability assessment.
• Commercial software is available.
24
The following are disadvantages of the ETA technique:
– An ETA can only have one initiating event, therefore
multiple ETAs will be required to evaluate the
consequence of multiple initiating events.

– ETA can overlook indirect system dependencies when


modeling the events.

– Partial successes / failures are not distinguishable.

– Requires an analyst with some training and practical


experience.

25
COMMON MISTAKES TO AVOID

When first learning how to perform an ETA, some common


errors are bound to happen. The following is a list of typical
errors that can be made during the conduct of an ETA:

1. Not identifying the proper INITIATING EVENT

2. Not identifying all of the CONTRIBUTING PIVOTAL


EVENTS.
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End of lecture.

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