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Baye's Theorem

This document contains 9 probability questions involving machines producing defective items or scooters at different rates. It provides the background information for each probability question and lists the specific probabilities or outcomes being asked about. The document also includes contact information for Dr. Mohammed Arshad Ali, the author.

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96 views

Baye's Theorem

This document contains 9 probability questions involving machines producing defective items or scooters at different rates. It provides the background information for each probability question and lists the specific probabilities or outcomes being asked about. The document also includes contact information for Dr. Mohammed Arshad Ali, the author.

Uploaded by

mubbun
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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[Document title]| Dr. Mohammed Arshad Ali, Professor, DSOM. arshadun@gmail.

com

1. In a company there are three machines X, Y, and Z. Machine X produces 50% of the items, Machine
Y produces 30% of the items and machine Z produces 20% of the items. From the past data it was
observed that machine X produces 3% defective items, machine Y produces 2% defective items, and
machine Z produces 4% defective items. If an item is selected at random,
a. What is the probability that it is a defective item?
b. If a defective item is selected at random,
1. What is the probability that it is produced by X?
2. What is the probability that it is produced by Y?
3. What is the probability that it is produced by Z?

2. In a bolt factory, machine A, B, C manufacture respectively 20%, 30%, and 50% of the total. Of their
output 3, 4, 5 percent are known to be defective bolts. A bolt is drawn at random from the product and
is found to be defective. What is the probability that it was manufactured by B?

3. In a bolt factory, machine A, B, C manufacture respectively 25%, 35%, and 40% of the total. Of their
output 5, 4, 2 percent are known to be defective bolts. A bolt is drawn at random from the product and
is found to be defective. What are the probabilities it was manufactured by
(i) Machine A (ii) Machine B or C

4. A company has two plants to manufacture scooters. Plant I manufacture 80 percent of the scooters
and plant II manufactures 20 percent. At plant I, 85 out of 100 scooters are rated standard quality or
better. At plant II only 65 out of 100 scooters are rated standard quality or better.
(i) What is the probability that scooter selected at random came from plant I, if it is known that
the scooter is of standard quality?
(ii) What is the probability that scooter selected at random came from plant II, if it is known that
the scooter is of standard quality?

5. A company has three plants to manufacture 8000 scooters in a month. Out of 8000 scooters, Plant I
manufactures 4000 scooters, Plant II manufactures 3000 scooters and Plant III manufactures 1000
scooters. At plant I, 85 out of 1000 scooters are rated standard quality or better. At plant II, only 65
out of 100 scooters are rated of standard quality or better, and at plant III, 60 out of 100 are rated
standard quality or better. What is the probability that the scooter selected at random came from (i)
Plant I, (ii) Plant II (iii) Plant III, if it is known that the scooter is of standard quality?

6. A factory produces a certain type of outputs by three types of machines. The respective daily
production figures are, Machine I : 3000 units, machine II : 2500 units, Machine III : 4500 units. Past
experience shows that 1 percent of the out put produced by machine I is defective. The corresponding
fraction of defectives for the other two machines are 1.2 percent and 2 percent respectively.an item
is drawn at random from the day’s production run is found to be defective. What is the probability that
it comes from the outputs of (a) Machine I, (b) Machine II and (c) Machine III.

7. Three persons A, B and C are being considered for the appointment as vice chancellor of a university
whose chances of being selected for the post are in the proportion 4:2:3 respectively. The probability
that A, if selected, will introduce democratisation in the university structure is 0.3 and the
corresponding probabilities for B and C doing the same are respectively 0.5 and 0.8. what is the
probability democratisation would be introduced in the university?

8. In a post office, three clerks assigned to process incoming mail. The first clerk processes 25 percent,
the second clerk processes 28 percent and the third clerk 47 percent of the mail. The first clerk has
an error rate of 0.05, the second has an error rate of 0.10 and the third has an error rate of 0.04. A

1
[Document title]| Dr. Mohammed Arshad Ali, Professor, DSOM. [email protected]

mail is selected at random from a day’s output is found to have an error. The post master wishes to
know the probability that the mail was processed by either the first or the third clerk.

9. Two related experiments were performed. The first has three possible, mutually exclusive outcomes:
A, B, and C. The second has two possible, mutually exclusive outcomes: X and Y. We know P(A) =
0.2, and P(B) = 0.65. We also know the following conditional probabilities if the result of the second
experiment is X: P(X/A) = 0.75, P(X/B) = 0.60, and P(X/C) = 0.40. Find P(A/X), P(X/B), and P(X/C).
What is the probability that the result of the second experiment is Y?

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