MET 4 LESSON 1 Mean-and-Variance-of-Discrete-Probability-Distribution
MET 4 LESSON 1 Mean-and-Variance-of-Discrete-Probability-Distribution
Prerequisite Content Knowledge: The learners recall the concepts of mean, variance, & standard deviation of frequency distributions.
Prerequisite Assessment: 3 items short answer questions involving mean, variance, and standard deviation.
2 items multiple choice involving square and square roots. (Online/Offline)
SHORT ANSWER
Answer the following. MULTIPLE CHOICE
1. A student has the following grades in Statistics 87, 85, 90, and 94. Find Read each statement carefully, encircle the letter of the correct answer.
the average grade of the student. 1. Which of the following is the square root of 225?
2. It refers to a measure of how data points differ from the mean. a. 5
3. If the variance of the given data set is 1.69, what is its standard deviation? b. 10
c. 15
Answer Key: d. 20
1. 89 2. Which is the square of 12?
2. Variance a. 24
3. 1.3 b. 6
c. 144
d. 48
Answer Key:
1. c
2. c
Mean
Mean is the average of the numbers, a calculated "central" value of a set of numbers.
Formula:
𝒙𝟏 + 𝒙𝟐 + 𝒙𝟑 + … + 𝒙𝒏
̅𝒙 =
𝒏
Where:
𝑥̅ = mean
𝑥1, 𝑥2, 𝑥3= population
n = number of occurrences
Illustrative example: Find the mean for the following list of values 13, 18, 13, 14, 13, 16, 14, 21, 13
Solutions:
𝟏𝟑 + 𝟏𝟖 + 𝟏𝟑 + 𝟏𝟒 + 𝟏𝟑 + 𝟏𝟔 + 𝟏𝟒 + 𝟐𝟏 + 𝟏𝟑
̅𝒙 =
𝟗
̅𝒙 = 𝟏𝟑𝟓
𝟗
̅𝒙 = 𝟏𝟓
Variance
Variance is the average of the squared differences from the MEAN.
Formula:
𝑛
∑ (𝑥−𝑥̅)2
𝑖=1
s2= 𝑛
where:
s2 = variance
i = starting point
n = number of samples
∑(𝑜𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛) = calculation is done recursively until n times
Illustrative example: Find the variance for the following list of values 13, 18, 13, 14, 13, 16, 14, 21, 13 Given a mean of 15.
[(13 − 15) 2 + (18 − 15) 2 + (13 − 15) 2 + (14 − 15) 2 + (13 − 15) 2 + (16 − 15) 2 + (14 − 15) 2 + (21 − 15) 2 + (13 − 15) 2 ]
s2= 9
s2 = 7.11
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a quantity calculated to indicate the extent of deviation for a group as a whole.
Formula:
𝑛
∑ (𝑥−𝑥̅)2
s=√ 𝑖=1
𝑛
Illustrative example: Find the variance for the following list of values 13, 18, 13, 14, 13, 16, 14, 21, 13 given a mean of 15.
Solutions:
𝑛
∑ (𝑥−𝑥̅)2
s=√ 𝑖=1
𝑛
s = √7.11
s = 2.67
Introduction
In this lesson the students will know what probability distribution is and how to construct the probability mass function. Students will also know and compute the mean and the variance
of a discrete random variable and be able to interpret the results. And finally, students will learn how to solve problems involving mean and variance of a discrete random variable.
Students learning from this topic can be used in computing for their general weighted average of their grades in Senior High School and be able to know if they are really performing
well in their different subjects. They can also use their learnings in their day to day activity i.e. finding the average of your daily allowance, average of your electric and water bills, etc.
The enabling formative assessment activities (EFAA) will determine their readiness in accomplishing the Performance Task.
Students are expected to finish this learning material in 120 minutes. For questions and other concerns, send message to (XXXX – XXXXXXX) or send an email to
[email protected].
Student’s Experiential
Learning
Chunk 1 Formative Question Online Modality Offline Modality
Lesson presentation (Student’s
Lesson presentation (PPT presentation, videos
How will you know if the given probability distribution Learning Materials/Module) on
and/or other platforms) on probability
Probability is a discrete probability distribution? probability distribution and how to
distribution and how to construct probability
Distribution construct probability distribution table
distribution table given the data set.
given the
data set.
Motivation:
In rolling a fair die, what is the probability of getting an odd number? even number? getting number 5?
Task 1
List all the possible outcomes when you roll a fair die.
Outcomes Probability
1
2
3
4
5
6
Task 1
Answer key:
List all the possible outcomes when you roll a fair die.
Outcomes Probability
1 1
6
2 1
6
3 1
6
4 1
6
5 1
6
6 1
6
Review:
What is Probability?
How likely something is to happen
Possibility
Occurrence of a random event
The value is expressed between zero and one
Illustrative example
Box A and Box B contains numbers 1, 2, 3, 4. Construct a probability distribution for the sum of the numbers taken at a time from each box
with replacement.
Solutions:
Possible Outcomes
(1, 1) (2, 1) (3, 1) (4, 1)
(1, 2) (2, 2) (3, 2) (4, 2)
(1, 3) (2, 3) (3, 3) (4, 3)
(1, 4) (2, 4) (3, 4) (4, 4)
Possible Sum:
2 3 4 5
3 4 5 6
4 5 6 7
5 6 7 8
Probability Distribution:
x 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
P(x 1 2 3 4 3 2 1
) 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
Guide questions:
How did we construct the probability distribution of the given situation?
Is there any way around to construct the probability distribution?
Can you construct the distribution for the sum of the numbers taken at a time from each box without replacement?
How will you compare the two distributions?
Discrete Probability
Distribution Properties:
The probability of each value of a discrete random variable is between 0 and 1 inclusive.
The sum of all the probabilities is 1.
∑ 𝑃(𝑥) = 1
Task 2
Determine whether the following show a discrete probability distribution or not.
x 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.08 0.25 0.34 0.31 0.04
x 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.03 0.22 1.01 0.23 0.0
x 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.05 0.27 0.34 0.28 0.06
Task 2
Answer key:
Determine whether the following show a discrete probability distribution or not.
x 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.08 0.25 0.34 0.31 0.04
x 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.03 0.22 1.01 0.23 0.0
x 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.05 0.27 0.34 0.28 0.06
Properties:
Illustrative example 1
Suppose a random variable X can only take the four values (0, 1, 2, and 3). If each value has equal probability, then its probability mass function is:
1
if x = 0
4
1
if x = 1
1 4
f(x) = if x =
2 1
4
if x = 3
4
0, otherwise
Illustrative example 2
Consider the given below:
f(x) = 1
x2 , if x Ɛ {1, 2, 3, 4}
30
0, otherwise
Solutions
1
a. f(x) = x2 > 0 for x Ɛ {1, 2, 3, 4}
30
f(x) = 0 for x not element of {1, 2, 3, 4}
hence, f(x) ≥ 0 the nonnegative property is satisfied.
The properties of a probability mass function are all satisfied. Therefore, the function is indeed a probability mass function.
or ∑[𝑥𝑃(𝑥)]
Where X = discrete random variable
x = outcome or value of the random variable
P(x) = probability of the outcome x
Hence, μ = ∑[𝑥𝑃(𝑥)]
Illustrative example 1
• A researcher surveyed the households in a small town. The random variable X represents the number of college graduates in the households.
The probability distribution of X is shown below.
• Find the mean or the expected value.
X 0 1 2
P(x 0.25 0.50 0.25
)
Solutions:
Since E(X) = ∑[𝑥𝑃(𝑥)]
x P(x) xP(x)
0 0.25 0.00
1 0.50 0.50
2 0.25 0.50
∑[𝑥𝑃(𝑥)] = 1
Hence, E(X) = 1
Or μ = 1
Therefore, the average number of college graduates in the households of the small town is 1.
Illustrative example 2
• A security guard recorded the number of people entering the bank every hour during one working day. The random variable X represents the
number of people who entered the bank. The probability distribution of X is shown below.
• What is the expected number of people who enters the bank every hour?
x 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.20 0.10
Solutions:
E(X) = ∑[𝑥𝑃(𝑥)]
x P(x xP(x
) )
0 0.00 0.00
1 0.10 0.10
2 0.20 0.40
3 0.40 1.20
4 0.20 0.80
5 0.10 0.50
∑[𝑥𝑃(𝑥)] = 3.00
Or μ = 3.00
Therefore, the average number of people entering the bank every hour during that working day is 3.
Task 3
Find the mean or the expected value of each of the following probability distributions
x 0 1 2 3
P(x) 0.15 0.32 0.37 0.16
x 0 1 2 3 4
P(x) 0.08 0.19 0.39 0.27 0.07
x 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.123 0.134 0.211 0.321 0.140 0.071
Task 3
Answer key:
Find the mean or the expected value of each of the following probability distributions
x 0 1 2 3
P(x) 0.15 0.32 0.37 0.16
μ = E(X) = 1.54
x 0 1 2 3 4
P(x 0.08 0.19 0.39 0.27 0.07
)
μ = E(X) = 2.06
x 0 1 2 3 4 5
P(x) 0.123 0.134 0.211 0.321 0.140 0.071
μ = E(X) = 2.434
Illustrative example
• Find the variance.
x 0 1 2
P(x) 0.25 0.50 0.25
Solutions:
Guide Questions:
1. What does it mean of having a variance of 0.50?
2. Are the data properly distributed?
Task 4
Find the variance in each of the following distributions
x 0 1 2 3
P(x) 0.15 0.32 0.37 0.16
x 0 1 2 3 4
P(x) 0.08 0.19 0.39 0.27 0.07
Task 4
Answer Key:
Find the variance in each of the following distributions
x 0 1 2 3
P(x) 0.15 0.32 0.37 0.16
σ2 = ∑[ (𝑥 − 𝜇)2 P(x)]
= 0.8684
≈ 0.87
x 0 1 2 3 4
P(x) 0.08 0.19 0.39 0.27 0.07
σ2 = ∑[ (𝑥 − 𝜇)2 P(x)]
= 1.0564
≈ 1.06
Illustrative example
Find the standard deviation given the variance below.
Var(X) = σ2 = ∑[ (𝑥 − 𝜇)2 P(x)]
= 1.8475
≈ 1.85
Hence, σ = √1.8475
σ = 1.3592277219
σ ≈ 1.36
Guide question:
1. What does it mean of having a standard deviation of 1.36?
APPLICATION OF A DISCRETE RANDOM
VARIABLE
Illustrative example
The officers of Grade 11 Batch 2022 decided to conduct a lottery for the benefit of the less privileged students of their alma mater. Two
hundred tickets will be sold. One ticket will win Php5,000 prize and the other tickets will win nothing. If you will buy one ticket, what will
be your expected gain?
Solutions:
Given:
200 tickets will be sold
1
1 ticket will win php5,000 or = 0.005
200199
199 tickets will win nothing or = 0.995
200
Required:
Expected gain in the lottery
E(X) = ∑[𝑥𝑃(𝑥)]
Guide questions:
1. Do you think this gain is enough for your project?
2. How can you gain more funds using the same lottery? Would you change the ticket prize?
3. What will be the best way to have higher funds?
For Online Modality
Computing the Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation of a Discrete Probability Distribution Example 2 - YouTube
ILLUSTRATING MEAN AND VARIANCE OF DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLE || SHS STATISTICS AND
PROBABILITY Q3 - YouTube SOLVING PROBLEMS INVOLVING MEAN AND VARIANCE OF PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTIONS || SHS STAT AND PROB Q3 - YouTube
STATISTICS: Mean and Variance of Random Variables in Filipino - YouTube
Synthesis
In this topic, the students were able to understand the probability distribution and mean and variance of a discrete random variable. They also learned how to construct the probability
distribution table. Here, for the students to construct the distribution, there is a need for them to determine first all the possible outcomes of a certain event, with this they can easily
construct the distribution as well as to find the mean and variance of the distribution. They were also able to interpret mean and variance based on the given data and solve problems
involving mean and variance of a discrete random variable. This is for the students to develop their communication and critical thinking skills which are essential in completing their
performance task. The use of technology is also highly encouraged for the students also to develop their technology skills.
Answer key:
Solutions:
Let the random variable X be the number of times a student will ask for additional allowance after receiving his/her weekly allowance.
x 0 1 2 3 4
3 15 24 6 2
P(x)
50 50 50 50 50
or
x 0 1 2 3 4
P(x) 0.06 0.30 0.48 0.12 0.04
Answer key:
Solutions:
x 1 2 3 4
P(x) 1 2 3 4
10 10 10 10
Or
x 1 2 3 4
P(x) 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40
Hence, the mean, variance, and standard deviation are 3, 1, and 1 respectively.