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Projects 2

1. The document describes a method for estimating population growth over time under the assumptions of no migration and constant birth and death rates each year. 2. It presents a mathematical model that expresses the population P(t) at time t as the initial population P(0) multiplied by the factor (1 + birth rate - death rate) raised to the power of t. 3. This model can be used with a calculator to estimate the population in future years and compare to real data to evaluate the model's accuracy under the given assumptions.

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Anshuman Kumar
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Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
87 views

Projects 2

1. The document describes a method for estimating population growth over time under the assumptions of no migration and constant birth and death rates each year. 2. It presents a mathematical model that expresses the population P(t) at time t as the initial population P(0) multiplied by the factor (1 + birth rate - death rate) raised to the power of t. 3. This model can be used with a calculator to estimate the population in future years and compare to real data to evaluate the model's accuracy under the given assumptions.

Uploaded by

Anshuman Kumar
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Project 2

Estimation of the population of a particular region/country under the assumptions


that there is no migration in or out of the existing population in a particular
year.
Task to be done
1. Find the population of a selected region in a particular year.
2. Find the number of births and number of deaths in the existing population
in a particular year t (say). Let
P(t): denote the population in a particular year t
B(t): denote the number of births in one year between t and t + 1.
D(t): denote the number of deaths in one year between t and t + 1.
3. Obtain the relation
P (t + 1) = P (t) + B (t) – D (t) (1)
4. Assume that

B(t )
b= represents the birth rate for the time interval t to t + 1.
P(t )

D (t )
d= represents death rate for the time interval t to t + 1.
P(t )
5. From (1), we have
P ( t + 1) = P (t) + B (t) – D (t)

B(t ) D(t )
= P (t) [1 + – ]
P(t ) P(t )
= P (t) (1 + b – d) (2)

24/04/18
6. Taking t = 0 in equation (2), we get
P (1) = P (0) (1 + b – d).
For t = 1, we get
P (2) = P (0) (1 + b – d)2.
Continuing above equation, we get
P (t) = P(0) (1 + b – d)t (3)
Here, it is assumed that birth rate and death rate remains the same for consecutive
years. P(0) denote the initial population. Equation (3) gives the mathematical
model for calculation the population in t year.
7. Using calculator find the population in different number of years.
8. Compare the population data obtained theoretically and draw the
inferences.

Mathematics 179

24/04/18

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