ACAD - EDGE - Edition 5 (Valuation Basics)
ACAD - EDGE - Edition 5 (Valuation Basics)
EDITION 5
Valuation Basics
Table of Contents
PURPOSE OF THE DOCUMENT .................................................................................................................... 3
VALUATION INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................................... 3
RELEVANCE OF VALUATION ........................................................................................................................ 3
VALUATION PROCESS.................................................................................................................................. 4
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW VALUATION ...................................................................................................... 5
DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL ................................................................................................................. 7
GORDON GROWTH MODEL .................................................................................................................... 8
The Present Value of Growth Opportunities .......................................................................................... 9
TWO-STAGE DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL .......................................................................................... 10
THE H-MODEL ....................................................................................................................................... 11
FCFF & FCFE VALUATION APPROACH ................................................................................................... 12
FORECASTING FREE CASH FLOW ...................................................................................................... 14
RELATIVE VALUATION ............................................................................................................................... 15
PRICE MULTIPLES / PUBLIC COMPS VALUATION METHOD .................................................................. 15
PRICE MULTIPLES .................................................................................................................................. 19
Price to Earnings ............................................................................................................................... 19
Price to Book Value Multiple: ........................................................................................................... 20
Diluted Market Capitalization/Book value........................................................................................ 20
PE/EG (Earnings Growth) Ratio ......................................................................................................... 20
Enterprise Multiples ............................................................................................................................. 20
EV/Sales ............................................................................................................................................ 20
EV/EBITDA:........................................................................................................................................ 20
EV/EBIT ............................................................................................................................................. 20
OTHER VALUATION METHODS ................................................................................................................. 21
APPENDIX .................................................................................................................................................. 22
2|Page
PURPOSE OF THE DOCUMENT
The purpose of this document is to introduce the reader to the various topics of Valuation. It
is advised that he/she supplements this with more comprehensive notes of renowned authors
and bloggers- to cover the topics in more detail.
VALUATION INTRODUCTION
The intrinsic value of an asset is its value given a hypothetically complete understanding of
the asset’s investment characteristics.
The assumption that the market price of a security can diverge from its intrinsic value—as
suggested by the rational efficient markets formulation of efficient market theory— underpins
active investing.
Intrinsic value incorporates the going-concern assumption, that is, the assumption that a
company will continue operating for the foreseeable future. In contrast, liquidation value is the
company’s value if it were dissolved and its assets sold individually.
Fair value is the price at which an asset (or liability) would change hands if neither buyer nor
seller were under compulsion to buy/sell and both were informed about material underlying
facts.
RELEVANCE OF VALUATION
Valuation is useful in a wide range of tasks. The following section lays out the relevance of
valuation in different cases
3|Page
VALUATION PROCESS
The valuation process has five steps:
I. Understanding the business.
II. Forecasting company performance.
III. Selecting the appropriate valuation model.
IV. Converting forecasts to a valuation.
V. Applying the analytical results in the form of recommendations and conclusions.
Understanding the business includes evaluating industry prospects, competitive position, and
corporate strategies, all of which contribute to making more accurate forecasts. Understanding
the business also involves analysis of financial reports, including evaluating the quality of a
company’s earnings.
Selecting the appropriate valuation approach means choosing an approach that is:
• consistent with the characteristics of the company being valued;
• appropriate given the availability and quality of the data; and
• consistent with the analyst’s valuation purpose and perspective.
• Intrinsic Valuation; relates the value of an asset to its intrinsic characteristics: its
capacity to generate cash flows and the risk in the cash flows. In its most common
form, intrinsic value is computed with a discounted cash flow valuation, with the value
of an asset being the present value of expected future cash-flows on that asset.
• Relative Valuation; estimates the value of an asset by looking at the pricing of
'comparable' assets relative to a common variable like earnings, cash-flows, book value
or sales.
• Contingent Claim Valuation; uses option pricing models to measure the value of assets
that share option characteristics.
Two important aspects of converting forecasts to valuation are sensitivity analysis and
situational adjustments.
• Sensitivity analysis is an analysis to determine how changes in an assumed input
would affect the outcome of an analysis.
• Situational adjustments include control premiums (premiums for a controlling
interest in the company), discounts for lack of marketability (discounts reflecting the
lack of a public market for the company’s shares), and illiquidity discounts (discounts
reflecting the lack of a liquid market for the company’s shares).
4|Page
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW VALUATION
What is it: In discounted cash flow valuation, the value of an asset is the present value of the
expected cash flows on the asset. Every asset has an intrinsic value that can be estimated, based
upon its characteristics in terms of cash flows, growth and risk. Markets are assumed to make
mistakes in pricing assets across time, and are assumed to correct themselves over time, as new
information comes out about assets.
DCF Model: The accompanying diagram is an illustration of the flow of items in a simple DCF
Model.
Trivia –
• This is the reason why analysts and investors appear obsessed with quarterly earnings as
these provide latest guidance to trends in valuation projection models, as well as full-
year EBITDA for multiples comparison.
• If quarterly (or annuals) show deviation from analyst/investor assumptions – the stock
price will move as long-term assumptions get revised.
5|Page
DCF Process
• Project the operating results and free cash flows of the business over the forecast
Projections / FCF period (typically 10 years, but can be 5-20 years depending on the profitability
horizon)
• Estimate the exit multiple and/or growth rate in perpetuity of the business at the
Terminal Value end of forecast period
• Determine a range of values for the enterprise by discounting the projected free
Present Value cash flows and terminal value of the present
• Adjust the resulting variation for all assets and liabilities not accounted forin cash
Adjustments flow projections
When DCF Valuation works best: At the risk of stating the obvious, this approach is designed
for use for assets (firms) that derive their value from their capacity to generate cash flows in the
6|Page
future. It works best for investors who either
• have a long-time horizon, allowing the market time to correct its valuation mistakes and for
price to revert to “true” value or
• are capable of providing the catalyst needed to move price to value, as would be the case if
you were an activist investor or a potential acquirer of the whole firm
The DDM is the simplest and oldest present value approach to valuing stock.
Example 1- For the next five years, the annual dividends of a stock are expected to be $2.00,
$2.10, $2.20, $3.50, and $3.75. In addition, the stock price is expected to be $40.00 in five
years. If the required return on equity is 10 percent, what is the value of this stock?
Solution 1- The present values of the expected future cash flows can be written out as
Calculating and summing these present values gives a stock value of V0 = 1.818 + 1.736 +
1.653 + 2.391 + 2.328 + 24.837 = $34.76.
The five dividends have a total present value of $9.926 and the terminal stock value has a
7|Page
present value of $24.837, for a total stock value of $34.76.
GORDON GROWTH MODEL
The Gordon growth model, developed by Gordon and Shapiro (1956) and Gordon (1962),
assumes that dividends grow indefinitely at a constant rate. This assumption, applied to the
general dividend discount model, leads to a simple and elegant valuation formula that has been
influential in investment practice
The Gordon growth model can also be used to value the noncallable form of a traditional
type of preferred stock, fixed-rate perpetual preferred stock (stock with a specified dividend
rate that has a claim on earnings senior to the claim of common stock, and no maturity date).
Perpetual preferred stock has been used particularly by financial institutions such as banks to
obtain permanent equity capital while diluting the interests of common equity. Generally, such
issues have been callable by the issuer after a certain period, so valuation must take account of
the issuer’s call option. Valuation of the noncallable form, however, is straightforward.
8|Page
If the dividend on such preferred stock is D, because payments extend into the indefinite future
a perpetuity (a stream of level payments extending to infinity) exists in the constant amount of
D. With g = 0, which is true because dividends are fixed for such preferred stock, the Gordon
growth model becomes
The discount rate, r, capitalizes the amount D, and for that reason is often called a
capitalization rate in this expression and any other expression for the value of a perpetuity.
PVGO, also known as the value of growth, sums the expected value today of opportunities to
profitably reinvest future earnings.
For any company, the actual value per share is the sum of the no-growth value per share and the
present value of growth opportunities (PVGO)
Example Suppose that MSEX is expected to have average EPS of $0.79 if it distributed all
earnings as dividends. Its required return of 9.25 percent and a current price of $18.39 gives
where PVGO = $18.39 − $8.54 = $9.85. So, 54 percent ($9.85/$18.39 = 0.54) of the company’s
value, as reflected in the market price, is attributable to the value of growth.
9|Page
TWO-STAGE DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL
The two-stage DDM is useful because many scenarios exist in which a company can achieve a
supernormal growth rate for a few years, after which time the growth rate falls to a more
sustainable level
10 | P a g e
THE H-MODEL
The basic two-stage model assumes a constant, extraordinary rate for the supernormal growth
period that is followed by a constant, normal growth rate thereafter. The difference in growth
rates may be substantial. In some cases, a smoother transition to the mature phase growth rate
would be more realistic. Fuller and Hsia (1984) developed a variant of the two-stage model in
which growth begins at a high rate and declines linearly throughout the supernormal growth
period until it reaches a normal rate at the end. The value of the dividend stream in the H-model
is
There are two basic three-stage models. In one version, the growth rate in the middle stage is
constant. In the second version, the growth rate declines linearly in Stage 2 and becomes
constant and normal in Stage 3.
Multistage DDM models can accommodate a wide variety of patterns of expected dividends.
Even though such models may use stylized assumptions about growth, they can provide useful
approximations.
Dividend growth rates can be obtained from analyst forecasts, statistical forecasting models,
or company fundamentals. The sustainable growth rate depends on the ROE and the earnings
retention rate, b: g = b × ROE. This expression can be expanded further, using the DuPont
formula, as
11 | P a g e
FCFF & FCFE VALUATION APPROACH
Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) and free cash flow to equity (FCFE) are the cash flows
available to, respectively, all of the investors in the company and to common stockholders.
Analysts like to use free cash flow (either FCFF or FCFE) as the return:
• if the company is not paying dividends;
• if the company pays dividends but the dividends paid differ significantly from the
company’s capacity to pay dividends;
• if free cash flows align with profitability within a reasonable forecast period with
which the analyst is comfortable; or
• if the investor takes a control perspective.
The FCFF valuation approach estimates the value of the firm as the present value of future
FCFF discounted at the weighted average cost of capital:
12 | P a g e
The value of equity is the value of the firm minus the value of the firm’s debt:
Equity Value = Firm value – Market value of debt
Dividing the total value of equity by the number of outstanding shares gives the value per
share.
13 | P a g e
FORECASTING FREE CASH FLOW
14 | P a g e
RELATIVE VALUATION
PRICE MULTIPLES / PUBLIC COMPS VALUATION METHOD
• DCF is theoretically the most valid method to value assets or businesses. Academic
literature on valuing companies largely stress DCF analysis as the correct route to the right
answer. However, most financial analysts know from experience that the assumptions
necessary to perform a DCF calculation can generate an impracticably broad range of
possible outcomes.
• The alternate valuation approach known as price multiples (also known as market multiples,
direct comparison, comparable companies, trading comparables, public comparables, or
15 | P a g e
relative valuation) is widely used in practice.
The primary reason for the popularity of public comps valuation analysis is the model’s
simplicity. Unlike the DCF methods, valuations based on price multiples do not require detailed
multiple-year forecasts of a number of parameters, including growth, reinvestment, and cost of
capital.
• Under the price multiple approach, a current measure of performance (or a single forecast of
performance) is converted into a value through application of a price multiple for comparable
firms
• Measures of performance used to create price multiples may be earnings, sales, cash flows,
book assets or book equity.
You are analysing an Example company with $10 million in net income. Comparable firms are
currently trading in the market at 20 times earnings. This price multiple is calculated by dividing
the price per share by comparable firm’s EPS
Best Practices: footnote your assumptions, always check database numbers (use SEC-filed
documents in case of US Companies), navigate and search the financial statements (materiality
issue)
17 | P a g e
Typical Multiples:
• Average across industry: once you have a sample of firms that you consider to be similar to
the firm you value, you can average the prices that investors are willing to pay for
comparable firms in order to obtain a price for your firm (or target).
• Subjective Analysis: The choice of comparable firms is subjective and can be tailored to
justify the conclusion the analyst wants to reach. Similarly, in choosing a multiple, there are
a number of possible choices – price/earnings ratios, price/cash flow ratios, price/book
value ratios, price/sales ratios, among others. The one or ones chosen may best fit the
analyst’s biases. Finally, once the average multiple is obtained, subjective judgments may
be made.
• Builds in Errors (Overvaluation or Undervaluation) that the Market Might Be Making in
Valuing these Firms.
• Company Being Valued Isn’t Average.
• As long as differences persist in fundamentals between the firm being valued and
comparables, significant valuation errors may be made.
• Use across Countries: Don’t compare multiples in different countries with the goal of
finding undervalued and overvalued markets. This cannot be done without controlling for
differences in the underlying variables such as different accounting methods, interest rates
and expected growth in real GNP.
• Use across Time: Comparisons are often made using multiples across different time periods
(e.g. P/E multiple for a specific sector is at a ten-year low). As fundamentals (interest rates,
expected growth) change over time, the multiple will change.
PRICE MULTIPLES
Price to Earnings
In calculating a P/E, the numerator most commonly used is the current price of the common
stock, which is generally easily obtained and unambiguous for publicly traded companies.
Selecting the appropriate EPS figure to be used in the denominator is not as straightforward.
The following two issues must be considered:
• the time horizon over which earnings are measured, which results in alternative
definitions of P/E, and
• adjustments to accounting earnings that the analyst may make so that P/Es for various
companies can be compared.
Common alternative definitions of P/E are trailing P/E and forward P/E.
The forward P/E (also called the leading P/E or prospective P/E) is a stock’s current price
divided by next year’s expected earnings. Trailing P/E is the P/E usually presented first in stock
profiles that appear in financial databases, but most databases also provide the forward P/E.
19 | P a g e
Price to Book Value Multiple:
It is calculated as:
PE/Expected Earnings Growth (3-year CAGR).
As a substitute one may also use historical earnings growth.
Enterprise Multiples:
Enterprise Multiples measure value available to the whole enterprise. The numerator is the
Enterprise Value as calculated before while the denominator can only include Sales, Gross
Profit, EBITDA and EBIT. If one went further down and included items like PBT or PAT, it
would go against the principle of consistency as it would depend on factors outside the purview
of the enterprise.
Enterprise value is Capital Neutral i.e. it measures efficiency of the assets deployed rather than
a particular type of capital and so the denominator must also be capital neutral.
EV/Sales:
The metric is generally used for companies that are yet to break even or have faced an
unexpected loss in operational earnings.
EV/EBITDA:
This is one of the most commonly used multiple by professionals as the metric captures
operational efficiency of the firm.
EV/EBIT:
In general, Enterprise multiples are considered to be superior over the equity variables due to
the following reasons:
20 | P a g e
• Sales, EBITDA and EBIT are more stable and are much more difficult to improve due
to ‘window dressing’ as compared to EPS.
• Enterprise multiples are capital neutral and reflect operational efficiency of the firm.
• Reflect the actual selling price of the firm as equity value is based mainly on the short-
term trends rather than the long-term sustainable profitability which is to be considered
during M&As.
• It is difficult to implement Equity Comparable in case of loss-making companies.
• Replacement Value: You estimate the cost of replacing the target company with all new
plant, equipment and the like. Include cost of hiring and training of personnel, designing
and producing products, establishing markets and installing systems of control. This
analysis may be helpful to deciding whether to enter the target industry by starting from
scratch versus buying an existing company.
21 | P a g e
APPENDIX
22 | P a g e
Software and Ecommerce. However, Banks are typically valued using the Relative valuation
approach (usually Price to Book value) or Residual Income Method.
23 | P a g e
For example, with a discounted cash flow, you could assume that the company will have a
terminal growth rate of x%, x+1% or x-1% and this would give 3 different final values.
Therefore, the discounted cash flow method will give a range of values for the company. This
applies to all valuation methods (you can trade at a high, low or average multiple of earnings
etc.). The best way to show this visually is using a graph, like the one shown below.
Enterprise Value
Enterprise Value, or EV for short, is a measure of a company's total value, often used as a more
comprehensive alternative to equity market capitalization. The market capitalization of a
company is simply its share price multiplied by the number of shares a company has
outstanding. Enterprise value is calculated as the market capitalization plus debt, minority
interest and preferred shares, minus total cash and cash equivalents. Often times, the minority
interest and preferred equity is effectively zero, although this need not be the case.
EV = market value of common stock + market value of preferred equity + market value of debt
+ minority interest - cash and investments.
24 | P a g e