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DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD

IN THE NORTH SEA

Thesis · September 2006

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.2483.6644

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 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR
WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD
IN THE NORTH SEA

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment

of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Engineering

By

Mohd Khairi Abu Husain

MEng Civil and Environmental Engineering

Department of Engineering
University of Liverpool
2006

© Copyright MK Abu Husain 2006. All rights reserved.

 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Abstract
Offshore structures are exposed to random waves in the ocean environment and hence

random waves must be used for their design. However, it is common practice and also

much simpler to use regular design waves for analysis of jacket structures which do

not respond dynamically to wave loading. This is usually the case for structures which

are in water depths less than 120 meters. Design waves are usually described in terms

of a given return period. For example, the American Petroleum Institute recommends

the structure to be strong enough to withstand the 100-year wave at the site of the

structure.

The main objective of this project is to calculate the 100-year design wave for the

Forties field in the North Sea. There are two different procedures for calculating the

100-year waveheight. The first procedure is based on the long-term probability

distribution of individual waveheights in a particular site. The second procedure is

based on the long-term probability distribution of the extreme waveheight during a

fixed period of time. The second procedure is more accurate and hence will be used

for derivation of the 100-year waveheight in this study. Finally appropriate wave

periods will be determined for the 100-year waveheight.

i
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Acknowledgements
I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisor, Dr Gholamhossein

Najafian, for his support, patience and encouragement during the course of the project.

It is not often that one can find a supervisor who is always listening to the little

problems and is ready to provide support whenever and whatever he could. Without

him, this thesis would have been impossible. He helped me with all issues I

encountered, and his advice, comments and knowledge has been invaluable to me.

My parents, Abu Husain Abu Bakar and Norsiah Maasit, receive my deepest gratitude

and love for their dedication and the many years of support during my current and

previous studies that provided the foundation for this work.

Last but not least I am deeply indebted to my friend, Noor Irza Mohd Zaki, for having

the patience to read and correct such a long technical dissertation from the other side

of the world. Without her unfailing support and encouragement I could never have

completed this work.

I am thankful for the great time in Liverpool.

Mohd Khairi Abu Husain

MEng Civil & Environmental Engineering

University of Liverpool

ii
DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Table of Contents
Chapter Title Page

Abstract …………………………………………………………... i
Acknowledgements ………………………………………………. ii
Table of Contents ………………………………………………… iii
List of Figures ……………………………………………………. v
List of Tables …………………………………………………….. vii
List of Abbreviations and Symbols ……...……………………….. viii

1 Introduction 1

2 Wave Climate 5
2.1 Definition of wave parameters …………………………… 5
2.2 Sea states characterisation ………………………………... 6
2.3 Scatter diagram …………………………………………… 7

3 Gumbel Distribution 9

4 Short-Term and Long-Term Probability Distribution of 11

Extreme Waveheight during a Fixed Period of Time
4.1 Short-Term Distribution …………………………………. 11
4.2 Long-term distribution …………………………………… 13

5 Derivation of the ‘100-year’ Waveheight from the 15

Measured Scatter Diagram

6 Sensitivity of H100 to inaccuracies in Hs and Tz 17

7 Extending the Scatter Diagram 21

iii
DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

8 Derivation of the ‘100-year’ Waveheight from the 27

Extended Scatter Diagram

9 Wave Period 28

10 Discussion 30

11 Conclusions 33

References 34

Appendices 36
Appendix A – Derivation of Short-Term Probability ……………. 36
Distribution of Extreme Waveheight
Appendix-B – Derivation of Wave Period ……………………….. 39
Appendix C – Progression Monitoring Form ……………………. 40

iv
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

List of Figures

Figure No Title Page

1.1 Location of the Forties Field in the North Sea 4
(Source: www.shell.com)
2.1 Definition of waveheight and wave period for random 5
waves
4.1 Short-term probability distribution of extreme waveheights 12

Hs = 10.25m, Tz = 10.5 Sec, T = 3 hours

4.2 Short-term probability distribution of extreme waveheights 12

Hs = 6.25m, Tz = 8.5 Sec, T = 3 hours

4.3 Short-term probability distribution of extreme waveheights 13

Hs = 3.25m, Tz = 5.5 Sec, T = 3 hours

5.1 Long-term probability distribution of extreme waveheights 16

during a 3-hour interval

6.1 Long-term probability distribution of extreme waveheight 17

during a 3-hour interval by 10% increase of Hs values in

the scatter diagram

6.2 Long-term probability distribution of extreme waveheight 18

during a 3-hour interval by 10% decrease of Hs values in

the scatter diagram

6.3 Long-term probability distribution of extreme waveheight 18

during a 3-hour interval by 10% increase of Tz values in

the scatter diagram

v
DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

6.4 Long-term probability distribution of extreme waveheight 19

during a 3-hour interval by 10% decrease of Tz values in

the scatter diagram

7.1 Probability distribution of significant waveheight for 23

the Forties Field

8.1 Long-term probability distribution of extreme waveheight 27

during a 3-hour interval from extended scatter diagram

10.1 Variation of the 100-year waveheight with the upper limit 31

of significant waveheight in the scatter diagram

10.2 Probabiltiy distribution of the extreme waveheight during 32

a three hour interval when all sea states with Hs < 11.0m

are replaced by clam sea state conditions

vi
DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

List of Tables

Table No Title Page

2.1 Scatter diagram obtained from Forties Field in the 8

North Sea (Provided by Health and Safety Executive, UK)

6.1 Extreme waveheights from modified values of Hs and Tz 19

6.2 The effect of 10% change of Hs and Tz values on extreme 20

waveheights

7.1 Total sea state value for each significant waveheight 25

7.2 Extended Scatter diagram obtained from probability 26

distribution of significant waveheight

B.1 Waves classification according to the magnitude of d/L 39

vii
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

List of Abbreviations and Symbols

API American Petroleum Institute

β Scale parameter of the Gumbel distribution

cdf Probability distribution function

α Location parameter of the Gumbel distribution

d Water depth

H Waveheight

Hs Significant waveheight

H100 ‘100-year’ waveheight

L Wavelength

Lmin Minimum wavelength

N Number of waves in T seconds

pdf Probability density function

QEH Risk of exceedence for extreme waveheight for a given sea state

QLT,EH Long-term risk of exceedence for extreme waveheight

ση Standard deviation of surface elevation

T Time interval

Tmin Minimum wave period

Tz Mean zero-upcrossing period

Wij Number of occurrences of sea state Hsi and Tzj

viii
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Chapter 1

Introduction
Offshore technology has experienced a remarkable growth since late 1940’s, when the

first offshore drilling platform was built in the Gulf of Mexico. At present time, a

wide variety of offshore structures are being used, some under severe environmental

conditions. Offshore structures have to carry the loads due to extreme waves in the

ocean environment. Therefore, the capability to predict the probability that the

structure will be exposed to a particularly severe wave during its expected service life

is of great value to designers.

Offshore structures are exposed to random waves in the ocean environment and hence

random waves must be used for their design. However, it is common practice and also

much simpler to use regular design waves for analysis of jacket structures which do

not respond dynamically to wave loading. This is usually the case for structures which

are in water depths less than 120 meters (Wilson, 2003). Design waves are usually

described in terms of a given return period. In early 1960’s, several codes were

developed to ensure offshore structures are safe and that they are strong enough to

withstand the extreme waves in the ocean environment. American Petroleum Institute

(API) published recommended practices for offshore structures. According to this

code of practice, these structures must be able to resist the loads due to waves whose

heights are exceeded on average once every 100 years. It should be recognised that

the recommended factors of safety in these codes are only appropriate for this

particular return period.

1
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

The main objective of this project is to calculate the ‘100-year’ design wave for the

Forties field in the North Sea. The North Sea is a sea of the Atlantic Ocean, located

between Norway and Denmark in the east, the UK (England and Scotland) in the west

and Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and France in the south. An offshoot of the

North Sea is the Skagerrak, between Denmark, Norway and Sweden which connects

to the Baltic Sea through the Kattegat, Öresund, the Great Belt and the Little Belt. In

the south, the North Sea connects with the rest of the Atlantic through the Strait of

Dover into the English Channel and in the north through the Norwegian Sea. The

North Sea can be classified to three main fields which are Northern Fields, Central

Fields and Southern Fields. The Forties Field is located in Central Fields area

(Fig. 1.1).

There are two different procedures for calculating the ‘100-year’ waveheight. The

first procedure is based on the long-term probability distribution of individual

waveheights in a particular site. The second procedure is based on the long-term

probability distribution of the extreme waveheight during a fixed period of time. The

second procedure is more accurate (Soding, 1974) and hence will be used for

derivation of the ‘100-year’ waveheight in this study. Finally appropriate wave

periods will be determined for the 100-year waveheight.

The first step in the derivation of the ‘100-year’ design waveheight and the long-term

distribution of extreme values, is the establishment of the wave climate at the Forties

Field in the North Sea. This is discussed in Chapter 2. Chapter 3 offers a brief

description of Gumbel distribution which will be use in this study. Chapter 4 is

devoted to a brief description of the short-term and long-term probability distribution

of extreme waveheight during a fixed period of time. In Chapter 5, the application of

2
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

long-term probability distribution of extreme waveheight in the derivation of the

‘100-year’ design wave is discussed. Chapter 6 is devoted to the analysis of the

sensitivity of H100 to inaccuracies in Hs and Tz. Chapters 7 and 8 are devoted to the

extension of the scatter diagram and the derivation of ‘100-year’ waveheight from the

extended scatter diagram. Chapter 9 offers a brief description of appropriate wave

periods for the ‘100-year’ waveheight. Chapter 10 compares the ‘100-year’

waveheight values from the measured scatter diagram with corresponding values from

the extended scatter diagram. Finally, the main conclusions from this study are

presented.

3
DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

FORTIES FIELD

Fig. 1.1: Location of the Forties Field in the North Sea

(Source: www.shell.com)

4
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Chapter 2

Wave Climate
2.1 Definition of wave parameters

The commonly used definition of waveheights and periods for random waves are

based on the zero-upcrossing method (Tucker, 1991). To use this method, the mean

value of the water surface elevation is subtracted from the surface elevation record to

make its mean equal to zero. A search is then made for the point where the surface

profile crosses the zero line upwards. That point is taken as the start of one individual

wave. The search is then continued to find the next zero-upcrossing point (Fig. 2.1).

This point defines the end of the first wave and the start of the second wave. The time

interval between any two successive zero-upcrossings is the wave period and the

vertical distance from the top of the largest crest to the bottom of the lowest trough

during the wave period is defined as its corresponding waveheight, H.

Water Surface Elevation (m)

H3
Time (sec)
H1 H2

T1 T2 T3

Fig. 2.1: Definition of waveheight and wave period for random waves

5
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

2.2 Sea states characterisation

Over long periods of time and large distances, the sea surface is not stationary and

homogenous; that is, storms vary in severity from time to time and from place to place.

However, over a short period of time and small distances, the sea surface can be

assumed stationary and homogenous. The time scale for stationarity is about a few

hours. In order to obtain the major long-term characteristics of sea waves, typically

water surface records are obtained every 3 hours for a period between 10 and 20

minutes. These records are considered to represent a sample from a stationary sea

state. Each sea state is described by two representative parameters: significant

waveheight, Hs, and mean zero-upcrossing period, Tz (Tucker, 1991).

The concept of the significant waveheight was first published by Sverdrup and Munk

(1947) and later discussed by Wiegel (1949) and Bretschneider (1959). The

significant waveheight is a useful parameter for describing an irregular sea surface

and its wave spectra. The significant waveheight, Hs is defined as the average height

of the highest one-third of the waves during a short time interval (a few hours) in an

area of ocean. Or, nowadays, Hs = 4ση, where ση is the standard deviation of water

surface elevation. On the other hand, the mean zero-upcrossing period, Tz is defined

as the average period of the all the waves in the record.

Hs and Tz are found to be correlated. In general, the higher the Hs is the longer its

associated Tz would be; this is of practical importance in calculating the correct period

to be assigned to the individual extreme wave (Tucker, 1991).

6
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

2.3 Scatter diagram

One of the ways in which the long-term characteristics of waves can be usefully

presented is by means of a scatter diagram that gives the relative occurrences of sea

states within specified small interval of significant waveheight, Hs and mean zero-

upcrossing period, Tz. A typical sea state scatter diagram is shown in Table 1 for the

Forties Field in the North Sea which is based on a measurement period of about 20

years.

Scatter diagrams (giving the joint probability of occurrences of pairs of Hs and Tz) are

usually obtained from measurement periods which are not long enough to cover all

the sea states possible at the site and hence do not lead to reliable long-term

distributions of the wave heights because sea state conditions of greater intensity (and

of greater return period) than those measured are not accounted for (Goda, 2000).

Trial calculations have shown that scatter diagrams should cover the average

occurrence of sea states over a duration which is at least 10 times as long as the

service life of the structure (Inglis et al, 1985). Since such a long data base is not

available, one must simulate it by extrapolating the observed wave scatter diagram.

7
8
DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Table 2.1: Scatter diagram obtained from Forties Field in the North Sea
(Provided by Health and Safety Executive, UK)
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Chapter 3

Gumbel Distribution
Before discussing the probability distribution of the extreme waveheight during a

given period of time, it would be useful to review the Gumbel probability distribution

as various results in this study will be presented on a Gumbel probability paper. The

Gumbel distribution is also known as the extreme value distribution. It is the limiting

distribution for the largest or the smallest value of a large number of identically

distributed random variables. The Gumbel distribution for the largest value is defined

as (Tucker, 1991),

⎧ ⎡ x − α ⎤⎫
F ( x) = exp ⎨− exp ⎢− ⎬
⎩ ⎣ β ⎥⎦ ⎭

(3.1)

where F(x) is the probability of the largest value being less than x, α is the mode of

the extreme value distribution (also known as the location parameter) and β is the

dispersion or scale parameter.

Using the method of moments, Wilks (1995) gives the following relationships for

estimating the Gumbel distribution parameters, based on the sample mean, x , and

standard deviation, σ . These are:

σ 6
α= and (3.2)
π

β = x − γα

where γ is Euler’s constant = 0.57721.

9
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

For the purpose of extrapolation of extreme values, axes need to be chosen which

result in data falling on a straight line if they obey a chosen law. In order to get a

linear relationship between x and its associated Gumbel probability distribution value,

the following transformation needs to be applied to Eq. (3.1). This is,

x −α
- log[- log F ( x)] =
β

(3.3)

This means that if the data is truly from a Gumbel distribution, then plotting

- log[- log F ( x)] against x would result in a straight line. Examples are provided in

the next chapter.

10
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Chapter 4

Short-Term and Long-Term Probability

Distribution of Extreme Waveheight during a
Fixed Period of Time
4.1 Short-Term Distribution of Extreme Waveheight

It has been found that the distribution of waveheights in the ocean is often close to the

Rayleigh distribution (Longuet-Higgins, 1952). The Rayleigh probability distribution

function (cdf) for the waveheights is equal to

⎛ 2h 2 ⎞
PH (h) = 1 − exp⎜⎜ - 2 ⎟⎟ (4.1)
⎝ Hs ⎠

where Hs is the significant waveheight.

The probability distribution of the extreme waveheight during a given period T can be

calculated from the probability distribution of individual waveheights given in Eq. (4.1)

(Goda, 2000). That is,

⎡ ⎛ 2h 2 ⎞ ⎤
PEH (h ) = exp ⎢- N exp ⎜⎜ - 2 ⎟⎟⎥ (4.2)
⎢⎣ ⎝ H s ⎠⎥⎦

where N = T / TZ is the number of waves in T seconds.

Then the risk of exceedence, or equivalently the probability of at least one waveheight

being greater than h during the time interval T, will be

⎡ ⎛ 2h 2 ⎞ ⎤
Q EH (h) = 1 - P EH (h) = 1 − exp ⎢- N exp⎜⎜ - 2 ⎟⎟⎥ (4.3)
⎢⎣ ⎝ H s ⎠⎥⎦

11
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

The probability of extreme waveheight for three different sea states are shown in

Fig. 4.1, Fig. 4.2 and Fig. 4.3.

Gumbel Probability Paper (Hs = 10.25m and Tz = 10.5sec)

35

30

25
Extreme waveheight (m)

20

15

10

0
99.9 90 50 20 5 1 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.0001
Percentage exceeding (%)

Fig. 4.1: Short-term probability distribution of extreme waveheights

Hs = 10.25m, Tz = 10.5 Sec, T = 3 hours.

Gumbel Probability Paper (Hs = 6.25m and Tz = 8.5sec)

35

30

25
Extreme waveheight (m)

20

15

10

0
99.9 90 50 20 5 1 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.0001
Percentage exceeding (%)

Fig. 4.2: Short-term probability distribution of extreme waveheights

Hs = 6.25m, Tz = 8.5 Sec, T = 3 hours.

12
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Gumbel Probability Paper (Hs = 3.25m and Tz = 5.5sec)

35

30

25

Extreme waveheight (m)

20

15

10

0
99.9 90 50 20 5 1 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.0001
Percentage exceeding (%)

Fig. 4.3: Short-term probability distribution of extreme waveheights

Hs = 3.25m, Tz = 5.5 Sec, T = 3 hours.

4.2 Long-term Distribution of extreme waveheight

In this section, the long-term distribution of the extreme waveheight during a given

period T, where T is just a few hours long, is established. According to Eq. (4.3), the

risk of exceedence during a given period of time, T, for a sea state represented by Hs

and Tz, is equal to

⎡ ⎛ 2h 2 ⎞ ⎤
QEH ( h | H s , T z ) = 1 − exp ⎢- N exp ⎜⎜ - ⎟
2 ⎟⎥
(4.4)
⎣ ⎝ H s ⎠⎦

where N = T / TZ is the number of waves in T seconds.

Now, QLT,EH(h), the long-term risk of exceedence during the time interval T, i.e. the

risk of exceedence accounting for all the sea states in the scatter diagram is (Tucker,

1991),

13
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

W ij
Q LT , EH (h) = ∑ i ∑ j Q EH (h | H s i , T z j ) *
W (4.5)
1
= ∑ i ∑ j Q EH (h | H s i , T z j ) * W ij
W

where Wij is the number of occurrences of the sea states represented by Hsi and Tzj in

the scatter diagram and W = ∑i∑jWij. In other words, Wij/W is the probability of

occurrence of the sea state characterised by Hsi and Tzj.

14
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Chapter 5

Derivation of the ‘100-year’ Waveheight from

the Measured Scatter Diagram
In order to derive the ‘100-year’ waveheight (H100) from the measured Scatter

diagram, the first step is to obtain the probability distribution of extreme waveheight

for each sea state using Eq. (4.2). The next step is to multiply the probability

distribution of each sea state by its corresponding probability of occurrence and then

to add them up to calculate the long term distribution of the extreme waveheight using

Eq. (4.5). The long-term probability distribution of extreme waveheight during a three

hour interval is shown in Fig. 5.1.

The ‘100-year’ waveheight is defined as the waveheight which on average is

exceeded once every 100 years. Now, the number of 3-hour intervals in 100 years is

N = 100*365*8. Therefore on average only in one 3-hour interval out of N 3-hour

intervals, the extreme waveheight would be higher than H100. In other words, its value

in N - 1 three-hour intervals must be less than H100. Therefore, the probability of the

extreme waveheight in a 3-hour interval being larger than H100 is 1/N. That is,

1 1
Pr ob{extreme waveheight > H100 } = = = 3.4247 *10− 6 (5.1)
N 100 * 365 * 8

where N is the number of 3-hour intervals during the return period of the extreme wave.

Knowing its probability of exceedence, the ‘100-year’ waveheight for the Forties

Field in the North Sea can be obtained from Fig. 5.1:

15
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Gumbel probability paper

30

100 year waveheight = 24.85m

25
50 year waveheight = 24.08m
10 year waveheight = 22.21m
Extreme value (m) 20
one year waveheight = 19.11m

15

10

0
99.9 90 50 20 5 1 0.1 0.01 0.0001
Percentage exceeding (%)

Fig. 5.1: Long-term probability distribution of extreme waveheight

during a 3-hour interval

According to Fig. 5.1 the ‘100-year’ waveheight for the Forties Field in the North Sea

is 24.85m with the probability of exceedence 3.425 x 10-6. Moreover, the ‘50-year’

and the ‘10-year’ waveheight for this area are 24.08m and 22.21m, respectively. The

‘one-year’ waveheight is 19.11m.

16
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Chapter 6

Sensitivity of H100 to Inaccuracies in Hs and Tz

In this report, the scatter diagram has been extended based on the probability

distribution of significant waveheights. This can be justified by the following

sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity of H100 to changes in significant waveheights and

mean zero-upcrossing periods have been investigated using different Hs and Tz values

(increase and decrease the original value by 10 percent).

Gumbel probability paper

30
100 year waveheight = 27.33m

50 year waveheight = 26.49m

25
10 year waveheight = 24.43m

20 one year waveheight = 21.02m

Extreme value (m)

15

10

0
99.9 90 50 20 5 1 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.0001
Percentage exceeding (%)

Fig. 6.1: Long-term probability distribution of extreme waveheight

during a 3-hour interval by 10% increase of Hs values in the
scatter diagram

17
DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Gumbel probability paper

30

25
100 year waveheight = 22.36m

50 year waveheight = 21.67m

20
Extreme value (m) 10 year waveheight = 19.99m

one year waveheight = 17.19m

15

10

0
99.9 90 50 20 5 1 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.0001
Percentage exceeding (%)

Fig. 6.2: Long-term probability distribution of extreme waveheight

during a 3-hour interval by 10% decrease of Hs values in the
scatter diagram

Gumbel probability paper

30

25 100 year waveheight = 24.75m

50 year waveheight = 23.98m

10 year waveheight = 22.1m
20
Extreme value (m)

one year waveheight = 19m

15

10

0
99.9 90 50 20 5 1 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.0001
Percentage exceeding (%)

Fig. 6.3: Long-term probability distribution of extreme waveheight

during a 3-hour interval by 10% increase of Tz values in the
scatter diagram

18
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Gumbel probability paper

30

100 year waveheight = 24.96m

25
50 year waveheight = 24.2m
10 year waveheight = 22.33m
20
Extreme value (m)
one year waveheight = 19.22m

15

10

0
99.9 90 50 20 5 1 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.0001
Percentage exceeding (%)

Fig. 6.4: Long-term probability distribution of extreme waveheight

during a 3-hour interval by 10% decrease of Tz values in the
scatter diagram

Figures 6.1 to 6.4 show the various extreme waveheights determined using ‘modified’

Hs and Tz values. The results are presented in Table 6.1.

Table 6.1: Extreme waveheights from modified values of Hs and Tz

Waveheights of Different
Scatter Diagram Data Return Periods (m)
H1 H10 H50 H100
Original scatter diagram 19.11 22.21 24.08 24.85
Modified Hs (+10%) 21.02 24.43 26.49 27.33
Modified Hs (-10%) 17.19 19.99 21.67 22.36
Modified Tz (+10%) 19.00 22.10 23.98 24.75
Modified Tz (-10%) 19.22 22.33 24.20 24.96

19
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

The extreme waveheights in Table 6.1 will be compared to their original values. The

percentage differences between the modified and original values of extreme

waveheights are shown in the following table:

Table 6.2: Effect of 10% change of Hs and Tz values on extreme waveheights

Percentage Difference (%)
Scatter Diagram Data
H1 H10 H50 H100
Modified Hs (+10%) 9.99 10.00 10.01 9.98
Modified Hs (-10%) -10.05 -10.00 -10.01 -10.02
Modified Tz (+10%) -0.58 -0.50 -0.42 -0.40
Modified Tz (-10%) 0.58 0.54 0.50 0.44

According to Table 6.2, the percentage difference in extreme waveheights value for a

10% change in Hs is approximately 10 percent and for a 10% change in Tz is 0.5

percent. Therefore, it is the significant waveheight which has a large impact on H100. It

is therefore more reasonable to extend the scatter diagram using the significant

waveheight, as will be explained in the following chapter.

20
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Chapter 7

Extending the Scatter Diagram

The scatter diagram obtained from a limited period of measurement (a few years) is

essentially a finite sample from the joint probability distribution of Hs and Tz and

hence does not include the more extreme sea states which may occur at the site. The

Forties scatter diagram, which was used to determine the ‘100-year’ waveheight in

Chapter 5, covers the variation of sea states over a 27-year period. This period is not

long enough to cover extreme conditions like a storm which on average occurs once

in a century. Therefore, the results shown in Fig. 5.1 can be potentially misleading as

it is possible to have several large storms within one calendar year and no large storms

in subsequent years (Ruggiero et al, 1997).

Ideally, the ‘100-year’ waveheight will be based on long-term statistics derived from a

very long period of measurement. In reality, this is seldom possible. Trial calculations

have shown that scatter diagrams should cover the average occurrence of sea states

over a duration which is at least 10 times as long as the service life of the structure.

(Inglis et al, 1985). Since such a long data base is not available, the observed scatter

diagram has to be extrapolated. This can be achieved by extending the scatter diagram

to cover more intense sea states (Wilson, 2003). For example, the Gumbel distribution

is fitted to the available Hs data to predict its values at low probabilities of

exceedence.

Extrapolation of the scatter diagram essentially amounts to finding a suitable joint

probability model for Hs and Tz. The first step for the extrapolation of the wave scatter

21
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

diagram is to establish the long term probability distribution of significant waveheight

(Burrows and Salih, 1986). In establishing the long-term distribution of significant

waveheight, the following points must be considered:

• Measurement of Hs taken over any finite interval of time are random samples from

the complete population of Hs. Through the techniques of extrapolation, one tries

to estimate the distribution of the population from analysis of the limited amount

of data available. However, it must be recognised that the distribution of such

short-term data samples from infinite populations are subject to sampling errors.

In particular, it is inevitable that higher intensity sea state occurrences will vary

considerably from year to year.

• When such a data base is not available, the waveheight data may be obtained by

hindcasting from meteorological data. Hindcast data are established from past

weather information using wind data as input to a wave generating model.

• There will be a physical limit to the values of Hs recorded at any location which

depends upon the limiting wind speed and its duration and the fetch available for

the generation of the sea states of extreme severity. Clearly, extrapolation of Hs

beyond this physical limit would be meaningless.

The probability distribution of significant waveheight can be obtained using plotting

position equation. This equation estimates the probability P (Hs ≤ h) that a random

observation will be less than h. The plotting position equation for the Gumbel

distribution is given by (Tucker, 1991);

i − 0.44
P (H s ≤ h ) = (7.1)
N + 0.12

22
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

where i is the total number of sea states whose significant waveheight is less than or

equal to h and N is the total number of sea states in the measured scatter diagram.

The probability distribution of significant waveheight for the Forties Field is shown in

Fig. 7.1.

Gumbel probability paper

16
Gumbel distribution
14 Measured data

12
Significant Waveheight (m)

10

0
99.9 90 50 20 5 1 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.0001
Percentage exceeding (%)

Fig. 7.1: Probability distribution of significant waveheight

for the Forties Field

In order to extend the scatter diagram, the Gumbel distribution best fitted for the

measured Hs data is also drawn in the same figure. The two parameters of the Gumbel

distribution are determined from Eq. (3.2) in Chapter 3. Then the probability

distribution of significant waveheight and Gumbel fit line will be plotted in the same

graph and compared.

It is observed that the lowest 99% of the data fit a straight line reasonably well, but

that the more extreme values fall progressively off it. This departure has been

23
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

observed by others (Bomel, 2002) from the analysis of data sets from various

locations in the North Sea. Two alternative explanations have been postulated for this

behaviour. According to the first, there is some physical mechanism which tends to

limit the height of extreme waves. According to the second, the available data sets are

defective, in that the higher waves are selectively lost.

In view of this uncertainty, they recommend the use of higher extreme Hs values than

those indicated by the scatter diagram. From Gumbel fit line the probability for each

significant waveheight band is obtained using the following equation;

Pr ob[h1 < H s < h2 ] = Pr ob[H s < h2 ] − Pr ob[H s < h1 ] (7.2)

Let us assume the total number of sea states for the extended scatter diagram is

1,000,000. The number of sea states for each significant waveheight band is

calculated by multiplying the total of sea states (1,000,000) with the probability of Hs

being in that band as shown in Table 7.1.

24
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Table 7.1: Total sea state value for each significant waveheight
Hs lower limit (m) Hs upper limit(m) Number of sea states
0 0.50 52521.68
0.50 1.00 111252.63
1.00 1.50 165472.10
1.50 2.00 176277.90
2.00 2.50 152266.60
2.50 3.00 115423.54
3.00 3.50 80696.34
3.50 4.00 53669.42
4.00 4.50 34613.10
4.50 5.00 21904.55
5.00 5.50 13701.72
5.50 6.00 8509.62
6.00 6.50 5261.85
6.50 7.00 3244.85
7.00 7.50 1997.70
7.50 8.00 1228.64
8.00 8.50 755.18
8.50 9.00 463.99
9.00 9.50 285.01
9.50 10.00 175.05
10.00 10.50 107.50
10.50 11.00 66.01
11.00 11.50 40.54
11.50 12.00 24.89
12.00 12.50 15.28
12.50 13.00 9.39
13.00 13.50 5.76
13.50 14.00 3.54
14.00 14.50 2.17
14.50 15.00 1.33
15.00 15.50 0.82
15.50 16.00 0.50
Total 1,000,000.00

Once the number of sea states for each Hs band has been established, the next step is to

assign suitable mean zero-upcrossing periods to sea states in that band, as described by

(Inglis et al, 1985). The number of occurrences for each Tz value will be determined

by multiplying the number of sea states in the band with their relative probability of

occurrence. However, the measured scatter diagram did not have any record for Hs

values larger than 11.50m. Therefore, for this range of data, sea states will be assigned

appropriate Tz values using our own judgement. That is by recognising that when Hs

values are large then their corresponding Tz values also will be large.

25
26
DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Table 7.2: Extended Scatter diagram obtained from probability distribution of significant waveheight
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Chapter 8

Derivation of the ‘100-year’ Waveheight from

the Extended Scatter Diagram

To derive the ‘100-year’ waveheight from the extended scatter diagram, the method

discussed in Chapter 5 has been used. The result is shown in the Fig. 8.1:

Gumbel probability paper

35

30 100 year waveheight = 28.81m

50 year waveheight = 27.5m

25
10 year waveheight = 24.27m
Extreme value (m)

20
one year waveheight = 19.5m

15

10

0
99.9 90 50 20 5 1 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.0001
Percentage exceeding (%)

Fig. 8.1: Long-term probability distribution of extreme waveheight

during a 3-hour interval from extended scatter diagram

According to Fig. 8.1, the ‘100-year’ waveheight for Forties Field is 28.81m.

Moreover, the ‘50-year’ waveheight, the ‘10-year’ and the ‘one-year’ waveheights for

this area are 27.50m, 24.27m and 19.50m, respectively.

27
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Chapter 9

Wave Period
Wave loads on structures are mainly determined by the waveheight, but it is also

dependent on the wave period. Once the design wave height is selected, then a

suitable range of wave periods for the design waveheight needs to be determined.

The minimum wave period for the design wave can be calculated from the maximum

wave steepness parameter, H/L where H and L refer to waveheight and wavelength,

respectively. According to wave theory, when H/L > 1/7, waves become too steep and

unstable, so they break; therefore, H/L > 1/7 is called the “breaking criterion”.

Theoretically, the maximum waveheight is about 1/7th of the wavelength (US Army,

2002), but in real life the steepness rarely exceeds 1/10. In this study, a steepness

value of 1/8 was taken to be the upper limit.

The maximum wave steepness is taken to be equal to (Najafian, 2005);

⎛H⎞ ⎛ 2π d ⎞
⎜ ⎟ = (1 / 8) * tanh ⎜ ⎟ (9.1)
⎝ L ⎠ max ⎝ L ⎠

where d is the water depth. Therefore the minimum wavelength for the ‘100-year’

waveheight would be equal to;

H100
Lmin = (9.2)
⎛ 2π d ⎞
(1 / 8) * tanh ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟
L
⎝ min ⎠

which can be solved by an iterative scheme. For H100 = 28.81m, Lmin = 229.76m. Then

the corresponding minimum period will be obtained from the following relationship

28
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

gTmin
2
⎛ 2π d ⎞ 2π Lmin / g
Lmin = tanh ⎜⎜ ⎟⎟ or Tmin = (9.3)
2π ⎝ Lmin ⎠ ⎛ 2π d ⎞
tanh⎜⎜ ⎟⎟
L
⎝ min ⎠

where d = 110m is the water depth and g = 9.81 m/sec2 is the gravitational constant.

Therefore, the minimum wave period for this wave will be 12.16 seconds. The

maximum wave period is taken to be 1.4*maximum Tz (Bomel, 2002) which would be

equal to 1.4*16.0 = 22.4 seconds. It was therefore decided that the ‘100-year’ design

wave should be used with four different wave periods, i.e. 12, 16, 20 and 23 seconds.

29
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Chapter 10

Discussion
A scatter diagram and long-term probability distribution of the extreme waveheight

during a fixed period of time were used to determine the ‘100-year’ waveheight for

the Forties Field in the North Sea. The results of this study indicate that ‘100-year’

waveheight using the measured scatter diagram for the Forties Field is 24.85m.

However, the measurement period of scatter diagram (27 years) is not long enough to

cover all extreme conditions. Therefore, this diagram has been extended. From the

extended scatter diagram, the ‘100-year’ waveheight for the Forties Field is 28.81m.

Consequently, the ‘100-year’ waveheight from the extended scatter diagram is larger

than that from the measured scatter diagram by 16%. For design purpose, the ‘100-

year’ waveheight obtained from the extended scatter diagram will be used.

Fig. 10.1 shows the variation of the ‘100-year’ waveheight with a finite upper limit of

Hs imposed to the summation in Eq. (4.5). It is observed that for Hs > 15m, the‘100-

year’ waveheight is almost constant. Therefore, very extreme sea states do not

contribute significantly to the values of H100. This is because their probability of

occurrence is so small.

30
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Gumbel probability paper

35

30

25
100-year waveheight (m)

20

15

10

0
0 5 10 15 20
Maximum significant waveheight in the scatter diagram (m)

Fig. 10.1: Variation of the 100-year waveheight with the upper limit of
significant waveheight in the scatter diagram

Fig. 10.2 is similar to Fig. 8.1 except that for all Hs values below 11.0m, the sea has

been assumed to be calm; in other words Hs has been set equal to zero unless Hs >

11.0m. Comparison of Fig. 8.1 and Fig. 10.2 reveals that the probability distribution

of high values of extreme waveheight is nearly the same in both cases. It can therefore

be concluded that only Hs > 11.0m makes a contribution to the ‘100-year’ waveheight.

In other words, the chance of a sea state with Hs < 11.0m containing a ‘100-year’

waveheight is virtually zero.

On the other hand, sea state with Hs > 15m have a very high chance of containing a

wave higher than H100, but the chance of sea state with Hs > 15.0m occurring is so low

that their impact on H100 is virtually zero. It can therefore be concluded that only sea

states with 11.0m < Hs <15.0m make a contribution to the ‘100-year’ waveheight.

31
DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Gumbel probability paper

35

30

25
Extreme value (m)

20

15

10

0
99.9 90 50 20 5 1 0.1 0.01 0.001 0.0001
Percentage exceeding (%)

Fig. 10.2: Probability distribution of the extreme waveheight during a

three hour interval when all sea states with Hs < 11.0m are
replaced by calm sea conditions

32
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Chapter 11

Conclusions
This paper dealt with the long-term probability distribution of the extreme waveheight

during a fixed period of time, which was required for calculating the ‘100-year’

waveheight in the Forties Field in the North Sea. Using this method, the ‘100-year’

waveheight for the Forties Field is 28.81m, obtained from the extended scatter

diagram. Moreover, the minimum and maximum wave period for this wave will be

12.16 seconds and 22.40 seconds. It was therefore decided that the ‘100-year’ design

wave should be used with four different wave periods, i.e. 12, 16, 20 and 23 seconds,

respectively. The ‘100-year’ waveheight from this method will be used for design

purpose. However, this design wave can only be used in the analysis of offshore

structures which do not respond dynamically to wave loading, or in other words, for

structure in water depths of less than 120m.

More advance methods based on the Joint Probability Distribution of Hs and Tz have

been proposed. These techniques are, however, much more complicated than the

simple technique used in this report and therefore, they are not used by the majority of

consulting firms in the offshore engineering field.

33
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

References
Bretschneider CL (1959), “Wave variability and wave spectra for wind generated

gravity waves”. Tech Memo. No. 118. Beach Erosion Board, US Army Corps of

Engineers, Washington DC.

Bomel Ltd (2002), “Environmental considerations”. HSE books, ISBN 0717623793.

Goda Y (2000), “Random seas and design of maritime structures”. Advanced Series

on Ocean Engineering, Vol 15, World Scientific Publishing, Singapore pp. 71-73.

Hawkes PJ, Jelliman CE and Brampton AH (1991), “Wave Climate Change and its

Impact on UK Coastal Management”. HR Wallingford, Report SR 260.

Inglis RB, Pijfers JGL and Vugts JH (1985), “A unified probabilistic approach to

predicting the response of offshore structures, including the extreme response”.

Proceeding of the 4th International Conference on the Behaviour of Offshore

Structures, Delft, Netherland. pp. 95-109.

Lin YK and Cai GQ (2004), “Probabilistic structural dynamics”. McGraw-Hill

Engineering, New York. pp. 73-75.

Longuet-Higgins MS (1952), “On the statistical distribution of the heights of sea

waves”. Journal of Marine Research, Volume II, 3, pp. 245-266.

Najafian G (2005), “Comparison of ‘100-year’ response Values from the Design

Wave Technique with those from the Time-Domain Probabilistic Technique”.

University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom pp. 4-5.

Ochi MK (1998), “Ocean Waves: The Stochastic Approach”. Ocean Technology

Series 6, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 97-99.

Ruggiero, P, Kaminsky GM, Komar PD and McDougal WG (1997), “Extreme waves

and coastal erosion in the Pacific Northwest”. Ocean Wave Measurement and

Analysis, Proceedings of the 3rd International Symposium, Waves ’97, pp. 947.

34
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Soding H (1974), “Calculation of Long-term extreme loads and fatigue loads of

marine structures”. Int. Symp. On The Dynamics of Marine Vehicles and

Structures in Waves, Inst. of Mechanical Engineers. pp. 369-378.

Sverdrup, HU and Munk WH (1947), “Wind, Sea and Swell: Theory of Relations for

Forecasting’’. Publication 601, Hydrographic Office, U.S. Navy, pp. 50.

Tucker MJ (1991), “Waves in Ocean Engineering: Measurement, Analysis,

interpretation”. Ellis Herwood, London.

US Army, Engineering Research and Development Centre, Coastal and Hydraulics

Laboratory, (2002), “Coastal Engineering Manual – Part II,” Publication

Number: EM 1110-2-1100.

Weigel RL (1949), “An Analysis Data from Wave Recorder on the Pacific Coast of

the United State”. Trans. Am. Geophys, Un 30(5) pp. 700-704.

Wilson JF (2003), “Dynamics of Offshore Structures”. 2nd Edition, John Wiley and

Sons Inc. Hoboken, New Jersey.

Wilks DS (1995), “Statistical Method in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction”.

Academic Press, San Diego.

35
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Appendices
Appendix-A: Derivation of Short-Term Probability Distribution of Extreme

Waveheight

The Rayleigh probability distribution has been proved to be a good model for the

probability distribution of waveheights. Therefore, the probability density function

(pdf), cumulative distribution function (cdf) and probability of exceedence for the

waveheight H is

h ⎛ − h2 ⎞
p H ( h) = exp⎜ ⎟
4σ η
2 ⎜ 8σ 2 ⎟
⎝ η ⎠
⎛ − h2 ⎞
PH (h) = 1 − exp⎜ ⎟ (A.1)
⎜ 8σ 2 ⎟
⎝ η ⎠
⎛ − h2 ⎞
QH (h) = 1 − PH (h) = exp⎜ ⎟
⎜ 8σ 2 ⎟
⎝ η ⎠

where σ η is the surface elevation standard deviation. Strictly speaking, the above

distribution is only applicable to a narrow-band process; however, it has been

observed that for processes with spectral bandwidth ≤ 0.80, the Rayleigh distribution

is a relatively good approximation (Ochi, 1998).

The mean, the root-mean-square, and the standard deviation of the wave heights are,

respectively
∞
H = E[ H ] = ∫ h PH ( h )dh = 2.51σ η
0
∞
H rms = E[ H 2 ] = ∫h PH ( h ) dh = 8 σ η = 2.83σ η
2
(A.2)
0

σ H = 1.31σ η

36
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

H1/n is defined as the average height of the highest (1/n)th of the wave heights, and is

equal to

H 1/ n = ( (
8 Ln( n ) + n 2π 1 − erf ( Ln( n ) ))) * σ η (A.3)

From the above relationship, one can obtain

H 1/ 2 = 1.42 H = 3.55σ η
H 1/ 3 = 1.60 H = 4.00 σ η (A.4)
H 1/ 10 = 2.03H = 5.09 σ η
H 1/ 100 = 2.66 H = 6.68 σ η

H1/3 or alternatively Hs is called the significant wave height and is one of the

parameters used to describe a sea state. That is why the probability density function

and the probability distribution function of waveheights are commonly expressed in

terms of Hs rather than ση. That is,

4h ⎛ − 2h 2 ⎞
pH (h ) = 2
exp⎜⎜ 2 ⎟
⎟
Hs H
⎝ s ⎠
(A.5)
⎛ − 2h 2 ⎞
PH ( h ) = 1 − exp⎜⎜ 2 ⎟
⎟
H
⎝ s ⎠

If we define the waveheight (H) as being two times the value of its associated peak,

then the probability distribution of the waveheight, would be

PH (h) = prob[ H ≤ h] = prob[ peak ≤ h / 2] = PP (q = h / 2) (A.6)

Now for a (narrow-banded) Gaussian process, the probability of a peak being less

than q is (Lin et al, 2004)

⎛ − q2 ⎞
P P (q) = 1 − exp ⎜⎜ ⎟
⎟ (A.7)
⎝ 2m0 ⎠

37
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

combining Eqs. (A.6) and (A.7) will lead to

⎛ − h2 ⎞
PH (h) = PP (q = h / 2) = 1 − exp⎜⎜ ⎟⎟
⎝ 8mo ⎠

(A.8) which is the well-known Rayleigh distribution for waveheights.

The probability distribution of the extreme waveheight can be calculated from the

probability distribution of the extreme peak (extreme value). That is,

⎡ ⎛ h 2 ⎞⎤
[
+
]
PEH (h) = PEP (q = h / 2) = exp ⎢− TE N (0) exp⎜⎜ − ⎟⎟⎥ (A.9)
⎣ ⎝ 8mo ⎠⎦

Then the risk of exceedence, or equivalently the probability of at least one waveheight

being greater than h during the time interval T, will be

⎡ ⎛ h2 ⎞⎤
Q EH (h) = 1 - P EH (h) = 1 - exp ⎢- T E [ N + (0)] exp ⎜⎜ - ⎟⎟⎥ (A.10)
⎣ ⎝ 8m0 ⎠⎦

⎛ h2 ⎞
When the risk of exceedence is small (say when T E [ N + (0)] exp ⎜⎜ - ⎟⎟ < 0.05 ),
⎝ 8m0 ⎠

Eq. (A.10) can be simplified to

⎛ h2 ⎞
Q EH (h) = T E [ N + (0)] exp ⎜⎜ - ⎟⎟ (A.11)
⎝ 8m0 ⎠

Eq. (A.11) shows that the risk of exceedence is proportional to the expected number

of zero-upcrossings (cycles) during the given period. It should be noted that the risk of

exceedence calculated from Eq. (A.11) is slightly higher than that obtained from

Eq. (A.10).

38
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Appendix-B: Derivation of Wave Period

The speed at which a wave form propagates is termed the phase velocity or wave

celerity, C. Since the distance travelled by a wave during one wave period is equal to

one wavelength, the wave celerity can be related to the wave period, T and length by

L
C= (B.1)
T

An expression relating the wave celerity to the wave length, L and water depth, d is

given by (Tucker, 1991).

gL ⎛ 2π d ⎞
C= tanh ⎜ ⎟ (B.2)
2π ⎝ L ⎠

From Eq. B.1, it is seen that Eq. (B.2) can be written as

gT 2π d
C= tanh (B.3)
2π L

The values 2π and 2π are called the wave number, k and wave angular
L T

frequency, ω respectively. From Eqs. (B.1) and (B.3) an expression for wavelength as

a function of depth and wave period may be obtained.

gT 2 2π d
L= tanh (B.4)
2π L

Gravity waves may also be classified by the depth of water in which they travel.

Classification is made according to the magnitude of d/L and the resulting limiting

values taken by the function tanh(2πd/L).

Table B.1: Waves classification according to the magnitude of d/L

Classification d/L 2πd/L Tanh (2πd/L)

Deep Water >1/2 >π ≈1

Transitional 1/25 to 1/2 1/4 to π Tanh (2πd/L)

Shallow Water < 1/25 < 1/4 ≈ 2πd/L

39
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Appendix C: Progression Monitoring Form

QA (Teaching) / PMS

UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL
Department of Engineering (Civil Engineering)

PROJECT MONITORING SCHEME

Student: BEng/MEng:
Mohd Khairi Abu Husain HK23
Supervisor: Year:
Dr Gholamhossein Najafian 2006

Project title:

DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES

FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

Aims and Objectives:

The objective of this project to explore the ways for calculating the
‘100-year’ design wave.

Brief Description (including any special requirements):

Offshore structure must be strong enough to withstand the extreme waves in

the ocean environment. According to the code, these structures must be able
to resist the loads due to a wave which is exceeded on average once every
100 years. It is the purpose of this project to explore the ways for
calculating the ‘100-year’ design wave.

QA Documentation / RGT, TSH / September 05 Page 1 of 4

40
 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

QA (Teaching) / PMS

Semester 1 Outline of Week's Work.

Week No.

1 Project briefing and selection of the project title.

2 Briefing about the project which was chosen and some general idea what will be
doing in the first semester.
3 Explanation about wave sea state and characteristic. MATLAB program basic.

4 Briefing some probability where we use to determine the ‘100-year’ waveheight

such as Gumbel probability distribution and Rayleigh distribution.
5 Explanation about Gumbel distribution and creating Gumble paper using
MATLAB program.

6 Scatter diagram and how the data in that diagram come from. Then how we use
the data in this diagram to determine the ‘100-year’ waveheight from the
measured scatter diagram.
7 Briefing the procedure to determine ‘100-year’ waveheight from measured
scatter diagram obtained from Forties Field in the North Sea
8 Short-term probability distribution of extreme waveheight during a fixed period
of time
9 Long-Term Probability Distribution of Extreme Waveheight during a Fixed
Period of Time.
10 Derivation of the ‘100-year’ waveheight from the measured scatter diagram.

11 The draft interim report explanation.

12 Writing the draft interim report.

Supervisor's comments:
Week 3

Week 6

Week 9

QA Documentation / RGT, TSH / September 05 Page 2 of 4

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 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

QA (Teaching) / PMS

Semester 2 Outline of Week’s Work.

Week No.
1 Submit the interim report and preparation of presentation.

2 Presentation for first semester progress.

3 Sensitivity analysis between the significant waveheight value and mean zero-
upcrossing period.
4 Extending the scatter diagram by plotting values follow probability distribution
of significant waveheight.
5 Plotting the Gumbel fit line in the same Gumbel paper. Then the result from
probability distribution of significant waveheight and Gumbel fit line will be
compared.
6 Use the Gumbel fit line value in order to determine the value for each sea state
in the extended scatter diagram.
7 Derivation of the ‘100-year’ waveheight from the extended scatter diagram.

8 Design wave period determination.

9 Writing the draft final report.

10 Submit the draft final report to my supervisor.

11 Make a correction to the draft final report.

12 Submit the final report.

Supervisor’s comments
Week 3

Week 6

Week 9

QA Documentation / RGT, TSH / September 05 Page 3 of 4

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 DETERMINATION OF THE 100-YEAR WAVEHEIGHT FOR THE FORTIES FIELD IN THE NORTH SEA

QA (Teaching) / PMS

Supervisor’s Feedback.

Oral Presentation:

Interim Report:

Comments on Final Report (and Web Site – MEng only):

Continue on separate sheet as necessary.

QA Documentation / RGT, TSH / September 05 Page 4 of 4

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