Forecasting

Assignment -01

Simple Linear Regression Method

x Year Attendance x2 xy
1 1989 53353 1 53353
2 1990 61417 4 122834 Year
3 1991 63853 9 191559 1989
4 1992 63034 16 252136 1990
5 1993 95504 25 477520 1991
6 1994 133762 36 802572 1992
7 1995 108363 49 758541 1993
8 1996 126853 64 1014824 1994
9 1997 125363 81 1128267 1995
10 1998 117874 100 1178740 1996
55 949376 385 59803466 1997
SX SY SX2 SXY 1998
1999
Linear regression y=a+bx 2000
n 10 b 9197.3
x 11 a 44352.4
y 145523

x Year Attendance x2 xy
1 1989 53353 1 53353
2 1990 61417 4 122834 Year
3 1991 63853 9 191559 1989
4 1992 63034 16 252136 1990
5 1993 95504 25 477520 1991
6 1994 133762 36 802572 1992
7 1995 108363 49 758541 1993
8 1996 126853 64 1014824 1994
9 1997 125363 81 1128267 1995
10 1998 117874 100 1178740 1996
11 1999 145523 121 1600750.8 1997
66 1094899 506 7581096.8 1998
1999
Linear regression y=a+bx 2000

n 11 b 9197.3
x 12 a 44352.4

y 154720

Year
1 1989
2 1990
3 1991
 4 1992
5 1993
6 1994
7 1995
8 1996
9 1997
10 1998
11 1999
12 2000

1989 1990 1991 1992

MA 1
WMA 1
Linear
Regression -1 -2 -3 -4

Q.1 The president of the akron zoo has asked you to calculate the expected gate admittance figures and re
1999 & 2000.Would simple linear Regression analysis be the appropriate fore-casting

1. Moving average and Weighted moving average techniques are rejected as the trac
Conclusion Simple Linear regression analysis technique trend analysis is the best method for akro
admittance figures and revenues for both years , since the value of tracking signal is within lim

Given that 35% of all the visitors are the adults , 50% children while 15% is of group admittance .Th
the revenue for 1999 & 2000 are:

Total Total
attendance People by
Group in 1999 Group% group
Adult 145522.8 0.35 50932.98
Children 145522.8 0.5 72761.42
Group 145522.8 0.15 21828.42
Total 1 145522.8

Total revenue by group of attended people (1999)

Total
Number of Revenue
Group People Price$ by group
Adult 50932.98 4 203731.92
Children 72761.4 2.5 181903.5
160000
Group 21828.42 1.5 32742.63
Total 1 418378.05
140000

Total Attendance(2000) 120000

Total Total
Attendance People by 100000
aTTENDANCE

Group in 1999 Group% group

Adult 154720.11 0.35 51452.04 80000
 aTTENDANCE
Children 154720.11 0.5 77360.05
Group 154720.11 0.15 23208.02 60000
Total 1 154720.11
40000

20000
Total revenue by group of attended people (2000)
Total
Number of Revenue
Group People Price$ by group
Adult 54152.04 4 216608.15
Children 77360.05 2.5 193400.14
Group 23208.02 1.5 34812.02
Total 1 444820.31

Q.2) Besides admission price , what other factors that influence annual attendance should be co

Response: There are numerous factors that may have influence annual attendance , factors that admiss
number of active exhibits
the weather
advertising campaigns- public service advertising
new attractions at the zoo
promotional events
new and exotic animals
 Moving average 3 yrs
Forecast Absolute TS=RSFE/
Forecast error RSFE value MAD MAD
A F A-F S(A-F) |A-F| S|A-F| S|A-F|/n
Attendance
53353
61417
63853
63034 59541 3493 3493 3493 3493 3493 1
95504 62768 32736 36229 32736 36229 18114.5 2
133762 74130 59632 95861 59631.66 95860.66 31953.55 3
108363 97433 10930 106790 10929.66 106790.33 26697.58 4
126853 112543 14310 121100 14310 121100 24220.06 5
125363 122993 2370 123471 2370.33 123471 20578.44 6
117874 120193 -2319 121152 2319 125789.6 17969.95 6.74
123363 123363 -0.33 121151 0.333 125790 15723.75 7.7
122200

Weighted moving average 3 yrs

Forecast Absolute TS=RSFE/
Forecast error RSFE value MAD MAD
A F A-F S(A-F) |A-F| S|A-F| S|A-F|/n
Attendance
53353
61417
63853
63034 61291 1743 1743 1743 1743 1743 1
95504 63038 32467 34210 32466.5 34209.5 17104.75 2
133762 79406 54357 88566 54356.5 88566 29522 3
108363 109221 -858 87708 858.33 89424.33 22356.08 3.92
126853 114686 12167 99875 12166.833 101591.16 20318.23 4.92
125363 121841 3522 103396 3521.83 105113 17518.83 5.9
117874 123062 -5152 98244 5152.3 110265.33 15752.19 6.24
121867 121867 0 98244 0 110265.3 13783.16 7.13
121119

Linear regression method

Forecast Absolute TS=RSFE/
RSFE
Forecast error Error MAD MAD
A F A-F S(A-F) |A-F| S|A-F| S|A-F|/n TS
Attendance
53,353 53549.70909 197 197 196.70909 196.709 196.70909 1
61417 62747.01818 1,330 1527 1330.0181 1526.7272 763.36363 2
63853 71944.32727 8,091 9618 8091.3272 9618.0545 3206.0181 3
 63034 81141.63636 18,108 27726 18107.636 27725.69 6931.4227 4
95504 90338.94545 -5,165 22561 5165.0545 32890.745 6578.149 3.43
133762 99536.25455 -34,226 -11665 34225.745 67116.49 11186.081 -1.04
108363 108733.5636 371 -11295 370.56363 67487.054 9641.0077 -1.17
126853 117930.8727 -8,922 -20217 8922.1272 76409.18 9551.1477 -2.12
125363 127128.1818 1,765 -18451 1765.1818 78174.363 8686.0404 -2.12
117874 136325.4909 18,451 0 18451.49 96625.854 9662.5854 0
145523
154720

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

2 3 4 5 6 6.74 7.7
2 3 3.92 4.92 5.9 6.24 7.13

-3.43 -1.04 -1.17 -2.12 -2.12

culate the expected gate admittance figures and revenues for both
Regression analysis be the appropriate fore-casting technique?

moving average techniques are rejected as the tracking signal is beyond+/-4

echnique trend analysis is the best method for akron to use in forecasting the
years , since the value of tracking signal is within limit of +/-4

50% children while 15% is of group admittance .Therefore , the attendance &

Simple Linear Regression

Simple Linear Regression

Attendence Linear (Attendence)

160000

140000

120000

100000

80000
 60000

40000

20000

0
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
YEARS

tors that influence annual attendance should be considered in the forecast

e influence annual attendance , factors that admission price which influence attendances include