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Lecture 6 - Estimation Part A

Inferential statistics allows researchers to generalize findings from a sample to the overall population. It involves using sample data to estimate unknown population parameters and testing hypotheses about populations based on samples. Key concepts include point estimation, interval estimation, and confidence intervals. Confidence intervals provide a range of values that is likely to contain the true population parameter based on the sample data and a desired confidence level, usually 95% or 99%.

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49 views23 pages

Lecture 6 - Estimation Part A

Inferential statistics allows researchers to generalize findings from a sample to the overall population. It involves using sample data to estimate unknown population parameters and testing hypotheses about populations based on samples. Key concepts include point estimation, interval estimation, and confidence intervals. Confidence intervals provide a range of values that is likely to contain the true population parameter based on the sample data and a desired confidence level, usually 95% or 99%.

Uploaded by

dude GFA
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Topics: Inferential Statistics

• Inference
• Terminology
• Estimation
– Point Estimation
– Interval estimation
– Confidence Intervals
• Hypothesis Testing
Inferential Statistics

• Research is about trying to make valid inferences

• Inferential statistics: the part of statistics that


allows researchers to generalize their findings
beyond data collected.

• Statistical inference: a procedure for making


inferences or generalizations about a larger
population from a sample of that population
How Statistical Inference Works
Basic Terminology

• Population: any collection of entities that have at


least one characteristic in common

• Parameter: the numbers that describe


characteristics of scores in the population (mean,
variance, s.d., etc.)
Basic Terminology (cont’d)

• Sample: a part of the population

• Statistic: the numbers that describe characteristics


of scores in the sample (mean, variance, s.d.,
correlation coefficient, reliability coefficient, etc.)
Basic Statistical Symbols
Basic Terminology (con’t)

• Estimate: a number computed by using the


data collected from a sample

• Estimator: formula used to compute an


estimate
The Process of Estimation
Estimation

• Point Estimation
• Interval estimation
– Sampling Error
– Sampling Distribution
– Confidence Intervals
Interval Estimation

• Interval Estimation: an inferential statistical


procedure used to estimate population parameters
from sample data through the building of confidence
intervals

• Confidence Intervals: a range of values computed


from sample data that has a known probability of
capturing some population parameter of interest
Sampling Error

• Samples rarely mirror exactly the population

• The sample statistics will almost always contain


sampling error

• The magnitude of the difference of the sampling


statistic from the population parameter
Sampling Distribution

• Sampling Distribution: a theoretical distribution that


shows the frequency of occurrence of values of some
statistic computed for all possible samples of size N drawn
from some population.

• Sampling Distribution of the Mean: A theoretical


distribution of the frequency of occurrence of values of the
mean computed for all possible samples of size N from a
population
Sampling Distribution of Mean
Sampling Distribution of Means and
Standard Error of the Means

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mu

Population mean
Central Limit Theorem

• The sampling distribution of means, for samples of 30 or


more:

– Is normally distributed (regardless of the shape of the population


from which the samples were drawn)

– Has a mean equal to the population mean, “mu” regardless of the


shape population or of the size of the sample

– Has a standard deviation--the standard error of the mean--equal


to the population standard deviation divided by the square root of
the sample size
Sampling Distribution of 1000 Sample
Means

Ave Ave Ave Ave. IQ of Ave. Ave. Ave.


minus minus minus 5000 4th plus plus plus
4.5 pts 3.0 pts 1.5 pts graders also 1.5 pts 3.0 pts 4.5 pts
Ave. of 1000
sample
averages
Confidence Intervals
• A defined interval of values that includes the statistic of
interest, by adding and subtracting a specific amount from
the computed statistic

• A CI is the probability that the interval computed from the


sample data includes the population parameter of interest
Factors Affecting Confidence Intervals
Various Levels of Confidence

• When population standard deviation is known use Z


table values:

– Alpha is called level of significance


– For 95%CI: mean +/- 1.96 s.e. of mean
– For 99% CI: mean +/- 2.58 s.e. of mean
• When population standard deviation is not known
use “Critical Value of t” table
95%Confidence Interval
95 times out of 100 the interval constructed
around the sample mean will capture
the population mean. 5 times out of 100 the
interval will not capture the population mean

95%

-2.58sem -1.96sem u +1.96sem +2.58sem


mu
99%Confidence Interval
99 times out of 100 the interval constructed
around the sample mean will capture
the population mean. 1 time out of 100 the
interval will not capture the population mean

99%

-2.58sem u +2.58sem
mu
Effects of Sample Size
Process for Constructing Confidence
Intervals
• Compute the sample statistic (e.g. a mean)
• Compute the standard error of the mean
• Make a decision about level of confidence that is desired
(usually 95% or 99%)
• Find tabled value for 95% or 99% confidence interval
• Multiply standard error of the mean by the tabled value
• Form interval by adding and subtracting calculated value to
and from the mean

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