PROJECT SCHEDULING

By
Henry Waruhiu
 Project Schedule – What is it?
• In project management, a schedule is a listing of a
project's milestones, activities, and deliverables, usually
with intended start and finish dates.
• The project schedule is the tool that communicates what
work needs to be performed, which resources of the
organization will perform the work and the timeframes in
which that work needs to be performed.
• The project schedule should reflect all of the work
associated with delivering the project on time.
 Project Schedule – What is it?
• Project scheduling defines the network logic for all
activities that must either precede or succeed other tasks
from the beginning of the project until its completion
• Without a full and complete schedule, the project
manager will be unable to communicate the complete
effort, in terms of cost and resources, necessary to deliver
the project.
 Objectives of Project Scheduling
• Completing the project as early as possible by
determining the earliest start and finish of each
activity.
• Calculating the likelihood a project will be completed
within a certain time period.
• Finding the minimum cost schedule needed to
complete the project by a certain date.
 Objectives of Project Scheduling

• Investigating the results of possible delays in

activity’s completion time.
• Progress control.
• Smoothing out resource allocation over the duration
of the project.
 Task Designate
• Tasks are called “activities.”
– Estimated completion time (and sometimes costs) are
associated with each activity.
– Activity completion time is related to the amount of
resources committed to it.
– The degree of activity details depends on the application and
the level of specificity of data.
 Identifying the Activities of a Project

• To determine optimal schedules we need to

– Identify all the project’s activities.
– Determine the precedence relations among activities.
• Based on this information we can develop managerial
tools for project control.
 Project Scheduling
• Split project into tasks (= create a WBS)
• Estimate time and resources required to complete each task.
• Organize tasks concurrently to make optimal use of workforce.
• Minimize task dependencies to avoid delays caused by one task
waiting for another to complete.
• Dependent on project managers intuition and experience.
 Project Scheduling
• Establishing objectives
• Determining available resources
• Sequencing activities
• Identifying precedence relationships
• Determining activity times & costs
• Estimating material & worker requirements
• Determining critical activities
 Estimation
• The single most important task of a project: setting
realistic expectations.
• Unrealistic expectations based on inaccurate estimates are
the single largest cause of project failure.
 Estimation
Activities/task characterized by:

• Effort: how much work will the activity need to be completed

• Resources: how many/much of the resources will be working
on the activity
• Duration: how long will the activity last for

… estimation technique provide (at least) two of the quantities

specified above
 Effort
• Your best shot for providing estimations (how complex/how
much work does the activity require?)
• A.K.A. “Work”
• Measured in man/month (3 m-m = 1 person working for 3
months; 3 people working for one 1 month)
• Note: communication increases the time to complete activities
 Duration
• How much time will the activity last for
• Measured in (work-)hours, (work-)days, (work-)months, …
• Calendar time != duration: calendar time includes non-working
days, holidays, …
 Some general considerations…
• Estimating the difficulty of problems and hence the cost of
developing a solution is hard.
• Productivity is not proportional to the number of people working
on a task.
• Adding people to a late project makes it delay because of
communication overheads.
• The unexpected always happens. Always allow contingency in
planning.
 Scheduling
• Once tasks (from the WBS) and size/effort (from estimation) are
known: then schedule

• Primary objectives
• Best time
• Least cost
• Least risk
• Secondary objectives
• Evaluation of schedule alternatives
• Effective use of resources
• Communications
 Terminology
• Precedence:
• A task that must occur before another is said to have precedence of the
other
• Concurrence:
• Concurrent tasks are those that can occur at the same time (in parallel)
• Leads & Lag Time
• Delays between activities
• Time required before or after a given task
 Terminology
• Milestones
– Have a duration of zero
– Identify critical points in your schedule
– Shown as inverted triangle or a diamond
– Often used at “review” or “delivery” times
• Or at end or beginning of phases
• Ex: Software Requirements Review (SRR)
• Ex: User Sign-off
– Can be tied to contract terms
 Terminology
• Deliverable:
– a deliverable is a measurable and verifiable work products (we saw it
already!)

… in current practice sometimes milestone and deliverable are used

interchangeably (both used to identify products - milestones may
represent key-products)
 Terminology
• Slack & Float
– Float & Slack: synonymous terms
– Free Slack
– Slack an activity has before it delays next task
– Total Slack
– Slack an activity has before delaying whole project
– Slack Time TS = TL – TE
• TE = earliest time an event can take place
• TL = latest date it can occur w/o extending project’s completion date
PROJECT SCHEDULING
TECHNIQUES
 Project Scheduling

GERT
Program
Critical
Evaluation
Path
and Review
Method
Technique
(CPM)
(PERT)
 Scheduling Techniques
– Mathematical Analysis
• Network Diagrams
– PERT
– CPM
– GERT
– Bar Charts
• Milestone Chart
• Gantt Chart
 Network Analysis
• Network analysis is operated in various forms under
different titles, which include:
• Critical Path Analysis (CPA) or Critical Path Method
(CPM); which is Deterministic
• Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT); which
is Probabilistic
 Network Diagrams
• Developed in the 1950’s
• A graphical representation of the tasks necessary to
complete a project
• Visualizes the flow of tasks & relationships
 Network Diagrams
• Advantages
– Show precedence well
– Reveal interdependencies not shown in other techniques
– Ability to calculate critical path
– Ability to perform “what if” exercises
• Disadvantages
– Default model assumes resources are unlimited
• You need to incorporate this yourself (Resource Dependencies) when determining the
“real” Critical Path
– Difficult to follow on large projects
 Network Diagrams
Show Help
interdependence schedule
resources
Show
Facilitate start &
communication finish
dates
Determine project Identify
completion critical
activities
 Network Scheduling Techniques
• There are two ways to show the network:
– Activity-On-Node (AON) – nodes represent the activities
– Activity-On-Arch (AOA) – archs represent the activities
• AON is easier, and it used in commercial software.
 Network Diagrams
• Two classic formats
– AOA: Activity on Arrow
– AON: Activity on Node
• Each task labeled with
• Identifier (usually a letter/code)
• Duration (in std. unit like days)
• There are other variations of labeling
• There is 1 start & 1 end event
• Time goes from left to right
 Network Diagrams
• AOA consists of
• Circles representing Events
– Such as ‘start’ or ‘end’ of a given task
• Lines representing Tasks
– Thing being done ‘Build UI’
• a.k.a. Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM)
• AON
• Tasks on Nodes
– Nodes can be circles or rectangles (usually latter)
– Task information written on node
• Arrows are dependencies between tasks
• a.k.a. Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM)
 Network Scheduling Techniques
• Network scheduling techniques provide a logical process
to consider the order in which the project activities
should occur.
• The primary methods for developing project activity
networks are:
– Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
– Critical Path Method (CPM) – Also called Arrow Diagram
Method (ADM)
– Precedence Diagram Method (PDM)
 Node Labels
• Nodes representing activities should be labeled with the
following information:
– Identifier
– Description
– Duration
– Early Start Time
– Early Finish Time
– Late Start Time
– Late Finish Time
– Float
 Node Labels
Early Start ID Number Early Finish

Activity Float
Activity Descriptor

Late Start Activity Duration Late Finish

 Node Labels
• Early Start (ES) – Earliest possible date an activity can
start based on the network logic and any schedule
constraints.
• Early Finish (EF) = ES + Duration
• Late Start (LS) – Latest possible date an activity may
begin without delaying a specified milestone (usually
project finish date).
• Late Finish (LF) = LS + Duration
ACTIVITY SCHEDULING

Henry Waruhiu
ESAMI
 PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION PLANNING
FRAMEWORK

The Project Framework

Project work breakdown

Project Organization Project Activities

Activity Responsibility Activity Sequencing

Activity Scheduling
Resource Budgeting
Management Information system
 Language Summary
• WBS – Work Breakdown Structure
• PERT – Programme Evaluation and Review
Technique
• GERT – Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique
• CATS – Critical Activity Time Schedules
• RATS – Realistic Activity Time Schedules
• LOE – Level of Effort
 Language Summary
• EAC – Estimated time At Completion
• PRINCE – Projects in Controlled Environments
• PIER – Post Implementation Evaluation Report
• CPM – Critical Path Method
• MRP – Materials Resource Planning
• DPR – Detailed Project Report
 Language Summary
• PCR – Project Completion Report
• SOW – Statement of Works
• ETC, ETC – Estimated to Complete
 Network Analysis
ACTIVITY DURATION PRECURSORS
A 4 -
B 3 -
C 6 A,B
D 1 B
E 7 D
F 2 C
G 5 C,E
H 8 E
J 4 G
K 5 F,G
L 6 J,H
M 3 L,K

A F K
4 2 5

C
6 G J
START
5 4
0

B D E
3 1 7 H L M FINISH
8 6 3 0

DURATION
 NETWORK ANALYSIS

Earliest Earliest Earliest Start, Earliest Finish

Start Finish

0 4 10 12 16 21
A F K
4 2 5

4 10
C 11 16 16 20
0 0
6 G J
START
5 4
0

0 3 3 4 4 11
B D E 11 19 20 26 26 29 29 29
3 1 7 H L M FINISH
8 6 3 0
 NETWORK ANALYSIS

Latest Start, Latest Finish

0 4 10 12 16 21
A F K
1 4 5 19 2 21 21 5 26

4 10
C 11 16 16 20
0 0
5 6 11 G J
START
11 5 16 16 4 20
0 0 0

0 3 3 4 4 11
B D E 11 19 20 26 26 29 29 29
0 3 3 3 1 4 4 7 11 H L M FINISH
12 8 20 20 6 26 26 3 29 29 0 29

Latest Latest
Start Finish
 NETWORK ANALYSIS

Critical Path
0 4 10 12 16 21
A F K
1 4 5 19 2 21 21 5 26

4 10
C 11 16 16 20
0 0
5 6 11 G J
START
11 5 16 16 4 20
0 0 0

0 3 3 4 4 11
B D E 11 19 20 26 26 29 29 29
0 3 3 3 1 4 4 7 11 H L M FINISH
12 8 20 20 6 26 26 3 29 29 0 29
Critical Path ES =LS EF=LF
shown as a thick line
FLOAT = LF-duration-ES

If duration of activities on critical path increases then

time required for project increases
 NETWORK ANALYSIS

Float 0 4 10 12 16 21
A F K
1 4 5 19 2 21 21 5 26

4 10
C 11 16 16 20
0 0
5 6 11 G J
START
11 5 16 16 4 20
0 0 0

0 3 3 4 4 11
B D E 11 19 20 26 26 29 29 29
0 3 3 3 1 4 4 7 11 H L M FINISH
12 8 20 20 6 26 26 3 29 29 0 29
FLOAT = LF-duration-ES
ACTIVITY H 20-8-11 = 1 = FLOAT
ACTIVITY A B C D E F G H J K L M
FLOAT 1 0 1 0 0 9 0 1 0 5 0 0
Critical path when float = 0
 GROUP DISCUSSIONS
• Cables By Us
 Mathematical Analysis
• PERT
– Program Evaluation and Review Technique
• CPM
– Critical Path Method
• Sometimes treated synonymously
• All are models using network diagrams
 Questions Answered by PERT & CPM
• Completion date?
• On schedule? Within budget?
• Probability of completing by ...?
• Critical activities?
• Enough resources available?
• How can the project be finished early at the least cost?
 CPM
• Developed by Du Pont and the emphasis was on the trade-off
between the cost of the project and its overall completion
time (e.g. for certain activities it may be possible to decrease
their completion times by spending more money - how does
this affect the overall completion time of the project?)
• Used in USED IN : Production management - for the jobs of
repetitive in nature where the activity time estimates can be
predicted with considerable certainty due to the existence of
past experience.
 Critical Path
• The specific set of sequential tasks upon which the project
completion date depends
– or “the longest full path”
• All projects have a Critical Path
• Accelerating non-critical tasks do not directly shorten the
schedule
 CPM
• Critical Path Method
– The process for determining and optimizing the critical path
• Non-CP tasks can start earlier or later without impacting
completion date
• Note: Critical Path may change to another as you shorten
the current activity
 Task Dependency Types
• Mandatory Dependencies
• “Hard logic” dependencies
• Nature of the work dictates an ordering
• Ex: Coding has to precede testing
• Ex: UI design precedes UI implementation
• Discretionary Dependencies
• “Soft logic” dependencies
• Determined by the project management team
• Process-driven
• Ex: Discretionary order of creating certain modules
 Task Dependency Types
• External Dependencies
• Outside of the project itself
• Ex: Release of 3rd party product; contract signoff
• Ex: stakeholders, suppliers, Y2K, year end
• Resource Dependencies
• Two task rely on the same resource
• Ex: You have only one DBA but multiple DB tasks
 Task Dependency Relationships

• Finish-to-Start (FS)
– B cannot start till A finishes
– A: Construct fence; B: Paint Fence
• Start-to-Start (SS)
– B cannot start till A starts
– A: Pour foundation; B: Level concrete
• Finish-to-Finish (FF)
– B cannot finish till A finishes
– A: Add wiring; B: Inspect electrical
• Start-to-Finish (SF)
– B cannot finish till A starts (rare)
 PERT
• Developed by the US Navy for the planning and control
of the Polaris missile program and the emphasis was on
completing the program in the shortest possible time.
• In addition PERT had the ability to cope with uncertain
activity completion times (e.g. for a particular activity the
most likely completion time is 4 weeks but it could be
anywhere between 3 weeks and 8 weeks).
 PERT
• Used in Project management - for non-repetitive jobs
(research and development work), where the time and
cost estimates tend to be quite uncertain.
• This technique uses probabilistic time estimates.
 PERT
• Program Evaluation and Review Technique
• Based on idea that estimates are uncertain
– Therefore uses duration ranges
– And the probability of falling to a given range
• Uses an “expected value” (or weighted average) to
determine durations
• Use the following methods to calculate the expected
durations, then use as input to your network diagram
 PERT
• Advantages
– Accounts for uncertainty
• Disadvantages
– Time and labor intensive
– Assumption of unlimited resources is big issue
– Lack of functional ownership of estimates
– Mostly only used on large, complex project
• Get PERT software to calculate it for you
 PERT
• Start with 3 estimates
– Optimistic
• Would likely occur 1 time in 20
– Most likely
• Modal value of the distribution
– Pessimistic
• Would be exceeded only one time in 20
 Probabilistic Activity Times
• Activity time estimates usually cannot be made with
certainty.
• PERT used for probabilistic activity times.
• In PERT, three time estimates are used: most likely time
(m), the optimistic time (a), and the pessimistic time (b);
using Beta Distribution.
• These provide an estimate of the mean and variance of a
beta distribution: 
b -
a
2
• variance: v





6

• mean (expected time): t  a  4m  b
6
Probabilistic Activity Times
Probabilistic Time Estimates

Beta Distribution

Probability

a m b Time
Optimistic Mean Pessimistic
 PERT Formula
• Confidence Interval can be determined
• Based on a standard deviation of the expected time
• Using a bell curve (normal distribution)

• For the whole critical path use

 Probabilistic Activity Times - Example
• The Southern Textile Company has decided to install a new
computerized order processing system that will link the
company with customers and suppliers online.
• In the past, orders for the cloth the company produces were
processed manually, which contributed to delays in
delivering orders and resulted in lost sales.
• The company wants to know how long it will take to install
the new system.
• We will briefly describe the activities and the network for the
installation of the new order processing system.
The Southern Textile Company - Activities
• The network begins with three concurrent activities: The new computer
equipment is installed (activity 1); the computerized order processing
system is developed (activity 2); and people are recruited to operate the
system (activity 3). Once people are hired, they are trained for the job
(activity 6), and other personnel in the company, such as marketing,
accounting, and production personnel, are introduced to the new system
(activity 7). Once the system is developed (activity 2), it is tested manually
to make sure that it is logical (activity 5). Following activity 1, the new
equipment is tested, and any necessary modifications are made (activity
4), and the newly trained personnel begin training on the computerized
system (activity 8). Also, node 9 begins the testing of the system on the
computer to check for errors (activity 9). The final activities include a trial
run and changeover to the system (activity 11) and final debugging of the
computer system (activity 10).
The Southern Textile Company - Activities
• Group Discussion
– Develop the task dependency table for the Southern Textile
Company
Southern Textile Company
TASK PRECEDENCE
1
2
3
4 1
5 2
6 3
7 3
8 1,5,6
9 1,5,6
10 4
11 7,8,9
 Southern Textile Company
• Construct the network diagram for the company
• Next step – we will use PERT in this example moving
forward
Precedence relations and Activity Times– Textile Company
Probabilistic Activity Times -The Southern Textile Company

Activity time estimates for figure

The Southern Textile Company Probabilistic Activity Times –
QM for Windows Output
Probabilistic Activity Times The Southern Textile Company

Network for order processing system installation

The Southern Textile Company Network – QM for Windows Output
Probabilistic Activity Times - The Southern Textile Company

Earliest and latest activity times

 Probabilistic Activity Times
Expected Project Time and Variance
• Expected project time is the sum of the expected times of the
critical path activities.
• Project variance is the sum of the critical path activities’ variances
• The expected project time is assumed to be normally distributed
(based on central limit theorem).
• In example, expected project time (tp) and variance (vp)
interpreted as the mean (μ) and variance ( 2) of a normal
distribution:
 Probability Analysis of a Project Network
• Using the normal distribution, probabilities are
determined by computing the number of standard
deviations (Z) a value is from the mean.
• The Z value is used to find the corresponding probability.
Probability Analysis of a Project Network
The Southern Textile Company

Normal distribution of network duration

Probability Analysis of a Project Network - The Southern Textile
Company

Probability that the network will be completed in 30 weeks or less

 Probability Analysis of a Project Network - The Southern Textile
Company

• What is the probability that the new order processing

system will be ready by 30 weeks?
  25weeks
 2  6.9
  6.9  2.63 • Z value of 1.90 corresponds to probability
x of .4713 in Table A.1, Appendix A. The
Z probability of completing project in 30

weeks or less:
30  25
Z  1.90 (.5000 + .4713) = .9713.
2.63
Probability Analysis of a Project Network
The Southern Textile Company

Probability the network will be completed in 22 weeks or less

Probability Analysis of a Project Network
The Southern Textile Company

■ A customer will trade elsewhere if the new ordering system

is not working within 22 weeks. What is the probability that
she will be retained?
Z = (22 - 25)/2.63 = -1.14

■ Z value of 1.14 (ignore negative) corresponds to probability

of .3729 in Z Table.
■ Probability that customer will be retained is .1271 (.5000-
.3729)
CPM/PERT Analysis Output with
QM for Windows

Dr.Bokkasam Sasidhar
CPM/PERT Analysis with
QM for Windows

QM for Windows solution output for system installation

Solved Problem 2

What is the probability of

completing the project in 23
weeks?
Solved Problem 2
Solved Problem 2

Using the Normal Distribution, we find that the

probability of completing the project in 23 weeks
or less is 0.9357.
 CPM vs. PERT
• Both use Network Diagrams
• CPM: deterministic
• PERT: probabilistic
• CPM: one estimate, PERT, three estimates
• PERT is infrequently used
 Milestone Chart
• Sometimes called a “bar charts”
• Simple Gantt chart
– Either showing just highest summary bars
– Or milestones only
 Gantt Charts
• Gantt charts are used as a tool to monitor and control the
project progress.
• A Gantt Chart is a graphical presentation that displays
activities as follows:
– Time is measured on the horizontal axis. A horizontal bar is drawn
proportionately to an activity’ s expected completion time.
– Each activity is listed on the vertical axis.
• In an earliest time Gantt chart each bar begins and ends at the
earliest start/finish the activity can take place.
Here‘s how we build an Earliest Time
Gantt Chart for KLONEPALM 2000
 90
105
90 115
A 15 129
B 5 149 194
C 20
D Immediate Estimated
Estimated
Activity Predecessor
Predecessor Completion
CompletionTime
Time 21 194
E A None 90 25
F B A 15
C B 5 14
G D G 20 28
H E D 21
F A 25 30
I G C,F 14 45
H D 28
J I A 30
J D,I 45
 Gantt Charts-
Monitoring Project Progress

• Gantt chart can be used as a visual aid for tracking the progress
of project activities.
• Appropriate percentage of a bar is shaded to document the
completed work.
• The manager can easily see if the project is progressing on
schedule (with respect to the earliest possible completion
times).
 Monitoring Project Progress
90
A 15
B 5 194
C 20
D
The shaded bars represent
completed work BY DAY 135. 21 194
E 25
F
14
G
28
Do not conclude that the
H
project is behind schedule. 30
I 45

J Activity “I” has a slack and

therefore can be delayed!!!
135
Gantt Charts – Advantages and Disadvantages
• Advantages.
– Easy to construct
– Gives earliest completion date.
– Provides a schedule of earliest possible start and finish times of
activities.

• Disadvantages
– Gives only one possible schedule (earliest).
– Does not show whether the project is behind schedule.
– Does not demonstrate the effects of delays in any one activity on the
start of another activity, thus on the project completion time.
Bar Chart
Gantt Chart
 Gantt Chart
• Disadvantages
– Does not show interdependencies well
– Does not uncertainty of a given activity (as does PERT)
• Advantages
– Easily understood
– Easily created and maintained
• Note: Software now shows dependencies among tasks in
Gantt charts
– In the “old” days Gantt charts did not show these
dependencies, bar charts typically do not
 Gantt Chart
Time Period
Activity
J F M A M J J
Design
Build
Test
 Gantt Charts

Developed by Henry Gantt during the first world war

Activities drawn as bars across a time map
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
J
K
L
M
Critical path Non critical activity
 Reducing Project Duration
• How can you shorten the schedule?
• Via
– Reducing scope (or quality)
– Adding resources
– Concurrency (perform tasks in parallel)
– Substitution of activities
 Compression Techniques
• Shorten the overall duration of the project
• Crashing
• Looks at cost and schedule tradeoffs
• Gain greatest compression with least cost
• Add resources to critical path tasks
• Changing the sequence of tasks
• Fast Tracking
• Overlapping of phases, activities or tasks that would otherwise be
sequential
• Involves some risk
• May cause rework
 Benefits
of PERT/CPM
• Useful at many stages of project management
• Mathematically simple
• Use graphical displays
• Give critical path & slack time
• Provide project documentation
• Useful in monitoring costs
 Limitations
of PERT/CPM
• Clearly defined, independent, & stable activities
• Specified precedence relationships
• Activity times (PERT) follow
beta distribution
• Subjective time estimates
• Over emphasis on critical path
 Other Methods
• Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (GERT)
– combines flowgraphs, probabilistic networks, and decision
trees
– allows loops back to earlier events and probabilistic branching