AMBO UNIVERSITY

GUDER MAMO MEZEMER CAMPUS

SCHOOL OF POSTGRADUATE

DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMEENT

ASSESSMENT ON THE IMPACT OF URBAN FLOOD ON SLUM RESIDENTS IN

ADDIS ABABA CITY: IN CASE OF ADDIS KETEMA SUB-CITY

BY

SETITOWAL ASSEFA

ADVISOR

NIGUSSIE BEKELE (PhD)

ATHESIS RESEARCH APROPOSAL SUBMITTED TO AMBO

UNIVERSITYSCHOOL OF POST GRADUATE FOR GUDER MAMO MEZEMER
CAMPUS DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMEENT IN
PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR MASTER OF SCIENCES
IN CLIMATE CHANGE IN DEVELOPMENT

JANUARY 21, 2023

 AMBO UNIVERSITY

SCHOOL OF POST GRADUATE STUDIES

GUDER MAMO MEZEMER CAMPUS

DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMEENT

Approval sheet
A Proposal submitted to Ambo university school of Post graduate studies in Guder Mamo
Mezemer campus Department of Natural resources management in partial fulfillment of the
requirement for master of sciences in climate change in development.

PG Candidate

Name: Signature Date

___________________ ______________________ ___________________

Approved by
1. Advisor
Name Signature Date

___________________ ______________________ ___________________

2. College/Institute Dean
Name Signature Date

___________________________ ______________________ ___________________

3. Head, Department
Name Signature Date

___________________________ ______________________ ___________________

4. Director, School of Graduate Studies

Name Signature Date
___________________________ ______________________ ___________________
Acknowledgement
I would like to express my sincere thanks to my advisor, Dr, Nigussie for his necessary
supervision and kindness throughout the course of the research. He has also showed me all
through finalizing progressions of this thesis proposal. Also, my gratitude goes to my family and
all friends, who have always been close to me for their generous support during these wonderful
years.

Last but not least, i would like to express my appreciation to all organizations and individuals
who contributed directly or indirectly to this thesis proposal work and for providing the
necessary materials and support for realization of this thesis proposal.

I
Table of Contents Page
Acknowledgement ..................................................................................................... I
List of Figures ........................................................................................................... V
List of tables ............................................................................................................ VI
Acronyms /Abbreviations ...................................................................................... VII
Abstract .................................................................................................................VIII
Chapter one ................................................................................................................1
1. Introduction ............................................................................................................1
1.1 Background of the study ......................................................................................2
1.2 Statement of the problem .....................................................................................4
1.3 Research Objectives .............................................................................................5
1.3.1 General objective of the study .......................................................................5
1.3.2 Specific objective of the study .......................................................................5
1.4. Research Questions .............................................................................................5
1.5 Significance of the study ......................................................................................5
1.6 Scope of the study ................................................................................................6
Chapter two ................................................................................................................7
2. Review of related literature ....................................................................................7
2.1 Trends in the frequency and duration of global floods ........................................7
2.2 The growing challenge of urban flooding in the world .......................................9
2.3 Cause urban flooding .........................................................................................10
2.3.1 Urbanization.................................................................................................11
2.3.2 Land use land cover system .........................................................................12
2.3.3 Meteorological factors .................................................................................13
2.4 Consequences of urban flooding ........................................................................13
2.4.1 Economic impacts of flooding .....................................................................14
2.4.2 Social impacts ..............................................................................................14

II
 2.4.3 Environmental impact ..................................................................................15
2.5 Flood, incidences, Risk and type .......................................................................15
2.6 Settlement of urban areas and impact of flooding .............................................18
2.7 Impacts of floods on dwellers in marginal settlements .....................................19
2.7.1 Flooding in slums area .................................................................................20
2.7.2 Vulnerability of Urban Poor towards Urban Floods ...................................21
2.8 Coping Strategies to urban flooding ..................................................................22
2. 9. Conceptual frame work of the study ................................................................23
Chapter three ............................................................................................................25
3. Description of the study area and Research Methodology ..................................25
3.1 Description of the study area .............................................................................25
3.1.1. Location ...................................................................................................25
3.1.2 Climate of Addis Ababa ...........................................................................26
3.1.3 Population and Population Growth ..........................................................27
3.1.4 Economic context .....................................................................................27
3.1.5 Housing .....................................................................................................28
3.1.6 Land use land Cover system .....................................................................28
3.2 Methods and materials .......................................................................................29
3.2.1 Research design ...........................................................................................29
3.2.2 Research methods ........................................................................................29
3.2.3 Source of the research data ..........................................................................30
3.2.3.1 Primary data ...........................................................................................30
3.2.3.2 Secondary data .......................................................................................30
3.2.4 Qualitative Research Method Data Collection Tools ..................................30
3.2.4.1 Focus group discussion ..........................................................................30
3.2.4.2 Key Informative Interview ....................................................................31
3.2.4.4 Field observation ...................................................................................31

III
 3.2.5 Quantitative Research Methods Data Collection Tool ................................31
3.2.5 Household Survey.....................................................................................31
3.2.6 Sampling design ...........................................................................................32
3.2.7 Population of the study area ........................................................................32
3.2.8 Sampling Procedure .....................................................................................32
3.3.9 Research instrumentations ...........................................................................34
3.4 Method of Data Analysis ...................................................................................35
3.6 Ethical Considerations .......................................................................................36
Chapter four .............................................................................................................38
4. Time Table and Budget Schedule ........................................................................38
4.1 Time schedule .................................................................................................38
4.2 Budget schedule ..........................................................................................39
Reference..................................................................................................................41

IV
List of Figures
Figure 0-1 Number of dead, missing and affected by floods in the world 1992–2021 .................. 8
Figure 0-1 Addis Ababa flood risk map ....................................................................................... 19
Figure 0-1 Conceptual Frame Work of the study ......................................................................... 24
Figure 0-1 Study Area Map .......................................................................................................... 26
Figure 0-1 Flow chart of method to use sentinel -1 image ........................................................... 35
Figure 0-1 Research data interpretation and Analysis processes flow chart ................................ 36

V
List of tables
Table 1 Time schedule ...................................................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
Table 2 Work finical plan ............................................................................................................. 39

VI
Acronyms /Abbreviations
AAA: - Action Aid Africa

ASFPM:-Association of State Flood Plan Managers

CSA: - Central statistical Agency

CMIP: -Model Inter comparison Project Phase

DFO: - Dartmouth Flood Observatory

FEMA:-Federal Emergency Management Agency

FGD: - Focus Group Dissection

GDP: -Growth Domestic Product

GHG: - Green House Gases

SSA: - Sub-Saharan Africa

UNDRR: - United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction

UN: - United nation

UNDESA: - United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

UNFCCC: - United Nation Frame work Convention on Climate Change

USGS: - United State Geological Survey

NMA: - National Meteorological Agency

NDMA:- National Disaster Management Authority

RCP: - Representative Concentration Pathway

WB: - World Bank

WMO: - World Meteorological Organization

VII
Abstract
Under the background of rapid urban development and continuous climate change, frequent
floods around the world have caused serious economic losses and social problems, which has
become the main reason for the sustainable development of cities. Flood hazard has become a
serious challenge and resulted in social, environmental and economic crisis in cities of
developing countries. Urban flooding resulting from climate change and unplanned urban growth
are creating tremendous stress on the urban poor who are already living in vulnerable conditions
of slum areas. As a result, slum settlements are increasing in the capital city of Addis Ababa.
This thesis is aimed to assess the impacts of urban flooding on slum resident in Addis Ababa
City: In case of Addis ketema sub-city. The research was carried out using cross-sectional study
design with mixed approaches (quantitative and qualitative). Data were collected using Key
Informant interview, field observation and Focus group dissection. As such, this paper focuses
in urban flood impact. In this paper, three slums of the sub –city was identified using Sentienl-1
image and field observation methods, which are very often affected by river flood & flash floods,
have been chosen as study area. Data have been collected mostly from primary as well as
secondary sources. In determining urban flood impact on the slum dwellers, four factors: land
use land cover system, urbanization, and meteorological change have been considered. The study
finds that urban flood impact on slum dwellers was varies one slum to another because of the
differences in the socio-economic and physical status. To reduce the impacts of urban flooding
on slum dwellers, several coping mechanisms and options have been proposed.

VIII
Chapter one

1. Introduction
Flooding, signifying the consequences of a flood as distinct from the flood itself, is defined as
overflowing by the water of the traditional confines of a stream or other body of water, or
accumulation of water by drainage over areas that aren't normally submerged (Brook Legese and
Boneya Gumi, 2022). As a result, floods are affecting and devastating more urban areas, where
unplanned development in floodplains, ageing drainage infrastructures, increased paving and
other impermeable surfaces, and a lack of flood risk reduction activities all contribute to the
impacts experienced (Abhas , 2011).

Urban Flooding is viewed as one of the most giant and devastating failures affecting lives,
infrastructures, and society, economy, and neighborhood ecosystems, in particular in city areas.
In the previous few decades, city flood has come to be an international challenge, threatening
social security, and hindering the improvement of city financial system (Jamali, 2021).

Slum resident defines a slum household as a group of individuals living under the same roof in
an urban area who lack one or more of the following: durable housing of a permanent nature that
cannot protects against extreme climate conditions, insufficient living space which means not
more than three people sharing the same room, access to inadequate sanitation in the form of a
private or public toilet shared by a reasonable number of people, and insecurity of tenure that
prevents forced evictions and prone for environmental hazards like flooding (UN@Habitata,
2009). The most dangerous flood events usually take place in urban areas, where the highest
number of inhabitants and the most valuable exposed assets are located today, due to current
urbanization trends (Cisneros, 2015). Another factor contributing to the negative effects of floods
is climate change, which appears to be concentrating the total yearly rainfall volume in
increasingly sporadic and intense rain events (Zhou, 2014). As a result, rainwater discharges
have been growing significantly in urban catchments (Arnell, 2016) , causing the occurrence of
increasingly frequent flood event in urban areas typically occur with little to no early warning,
thus being commonly referred to as flash floods.

1
1.1 Background of the study
World‟s population living in urban areas is growing faster and has overtaken the population in
rural areas and it is predicted that urban population will rise proportionately with the increase of
global population (Subah, 2021). The global natural climate with the greatest human toll is
flooding; it has affected more than 2.8 billion people since 1990, making it the occurrence that
has the greatest global human population impact (EM DAT, 2016). However, due to the material
destruction, it poses more of an economic risk than a life-threatening one for the community in
question. Urban flooding is a multi-faceted hazard and has numerous causes. Global urbanization
and the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events as a result of climate
change are serious problems for urban floods Moreover; they have caused massive casualties and
economic losses (EM DAT, 2016).

Urban flooding problems are increasing due to numerous reasons: Urbanization is an

accelerating trend. At present about 54% of the global population live in cities (Ligtvoet, etal,
2014) and by 2050, almost two thirds of the world‟s population will live in urban environments
(United Nation , 2014). Climate change will increase the vulnerability of the urban poor
throughout Africa, Already many are forced to live in hazardous places, building their homes and
growing their food on floodplains in towns and cities. Others construct their shelters on steep,
unstable hillsides, or along the foreshore on former mangrove swamps or tidal flats are already
vulnerable to destructive floods, damaging landslides or storm surges, climate change is making
the situation of the urban poor more badly (Action Aids, 2016).
Several studies have found that flood vulnerability in urban areas has become an increasingly
severe and more frequent problem in most African cities, with adverse consequences for the
urban poor who cannot afford the highly bureaucratic processes land and high costs of formal
landownership and are hence attracted to unplanned informal settlements/areas/slums, mostly
overcrowded and found in marginal land (Action Aids, 2016), (Douglas, etal, 2018). Flood-
related disasters have increased steadily over the past 50 years in Africa (Bern , 2012 ) and since
1981; Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced nearly 50% of all disasters. The urban poor living in
slums now estimated at approximately one billion people are at particularly high risk from the
impacts of climate and natural hazards in large part due to where they live. As cities grow, land
becomes scarcer and thus more expensive. The areas that are affordable to the poor are typically
2
on hazard-prone lands, in areas that are deemed undesirable to others. They are also often
informal settlements with insecure tenure (World Bank , 2020).
According to the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), flooding in
2010 affected 178 million people and amongst all natural disasters the occurrence of floods is the
most frequent. In the last century based on International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR)
statistical analysis, the total numbers of hydro-meteorological events was 7,486. Urbanization is
set to be continued process and challenge for urban poverty/slum dweller being difficult
experienced of social and economic, physical services (Khwairakpam, 2015), One third of the
urban population in world lives in slum (UN@Habitata, 2009). Approximately 22 percent of
urban poverty had been shared in major city whereas small and medium town had share 69
percent in Ethiopia (Elias Mazhindu, 2016).

In recent years, flooding has become one of the extreme climate events in the Akaki catchment
(Zeberie, 2019). For instance, Addis Ababa has expanded from 80.1 km to 287.9 km between
1984 and 2020, implying an increasing flood risk in the city. According to this study, the long-
term trend of the urban flooding in city was significant, and the increased surface urban sprawl
and land use land cover system was the major contributor to the increasing flooding impacts on
slum residents (Song, 2021).

Addis Ababa is vulnerable to riverine as well as flash floods due to extreme climatic events and
upper catchment activities and the vulnerability to flooding is more aggravated due to a poor
drainage system, rapid urbanization along river banks and meteorological changes (World Bank ,
2015). Over one century of rainfall analysis, particularly considering the rainy season (June to
September: JJAS) showed an increasing trend of rainfall approximately by 18 mm per decade
from 1951 to 2010 (Conway, 2010). In this study the researcher try to show the impacts of urban
flooding on slum resident and the major coping strategies to urban flooding in Addis Ababa with
especially references in Addis ketema sub-city administration.

3
1.2 Statement of the problem
Flooding is considered as one of the most widespread and devastating disasters affecting lives,
infrastructures, and society, economy, and local ecosystems, especially in urban areas. In the past
few decades, urban flood has become a global challenge, threatening social security, and
hindering the development of urban economy (Huang etal, 2021). Urban flooding is a major
problem in many parts of the world and is one of the most natural disastrous events which takes
place every year, especially in the coastal cities and slum residential area , Increasing trend of
urban flooding is a universal phenomenon and poses a great challenge to city administration and
urban planners the world over (UNDRR, 2018). Problems associated with urban floods range
from relatively localized incidents to major incidents, resulting in cities being inundated from a
few hours to several days. Therefore, the impact can also be widespread, including temporary
relocation of people, damage to civic amenities, deterioration of water quality and risk of
epidemics. The problems posed by urban flooding are quite challenging and aggravate with
continuous climate change, with its adverse impact affecting variation in rainfall and intra-city
/intra-region disparities in the distribution of rainfall (NMA, 2022). The most devastating floods
in terms of loss of life have tended to occur in less developed nations. The most tragic and
irreversible impact of flooding on human settlements is the loss of human life. Mortality rates,
some of which can be as a direct result of flood waters such as drowning, being swept away or
collision with flood debris, are a key impact which varies widely across urban and rural floods,
flood scale, type, speed of onset and development scale(NDMA, 2022.

Addis Ababa is exposed to both riverine and flash floods due to river overflow caused by
extreme rainfall events, urbanization and upper catchment activities. However, it is more of an
economic risk because of the material damage caused rather than a lethal risk for the affected
population and this is becoming to more problematic and challenging issues especially slum
dwellers. In case, limited studies was existed in Addis ketema sub-city on the impacts of urban
floods on slum residents, who are settlers of ecologically sensitive parts of the town especially
along the market center of merkato and Shackle river side slum settlers. Hence there is a huge
knowledge gap on the causes and impacts of flooding in the city, this study will intend to fill this
knowledge gap in a way to mitigate flood related problems at the municipal and community
level.
4
1.3 Research Objectives
1.3.1 General objective of the study
The general objective of this study will be to assess the impacts of urban floods on slum resident
in Addis Ababa city, in case of Addis ketema sub city Administration.

1.3.2 Specific objective of the study

The following are specific objectives of this study:-

To assess the most urban flooding prone areas in Addis ketema sub-city.
To identify causes of urban flooding on slum resident communities in study area.
To justify the impacts of urban flooding on their livelihood and environment of slum area
dwellers.
To explore the major factors of urbanization on urban flooding in the study area.

1.4. Research Questions

The following are major research questions those will use to achieve the research objectives up
on the accomplishment of the study.

1. Which areas are more prone to urban flooding in Addis ketema sub-city?
2. What are the main factors for urban flooding in the study area?
3. What are the impacts of urban flooding on slum resident in the study area?
4. What are the major factors of urbanization on urban flooding in the study area?

1.5 Significance of the study

Urban flooding leads to different impacts including social, economic, Infrastructural
environmental disruptions and livelihood. This study wills also contributory use for different
levels of government in the town and to make sound decisions on urban flooding related issues.
The town administration will benefits from this study because, the study will provides them
information with regard to flood vulnerability and the resultant impact which helps them to
evaluate the environmental disaster planning, preparedness and emergency mitigation programs,

5
policies and strategies for slum dweller communities. . In addition to this the paper will identify
the major causes, consequences and possible coping mechanisms of urban flooding impacts of
the mentioned study area and give idea and scientific explanations for the cause and suggest for
future solution.

1.6 Scope of the study

This study will geographically limit to Addis Ketema Sub-city of Addis Ababa and the
surrounding where a flood incidence most frequently occurs. Generally, it will address issues
related to urban flooding impacts. The specific focus of it includes: impacts of urban flooding on
slum residents, From the 14 newly structured woerda unites of the sub-city three, woredas will
be include in this research as site area. The scope of the study therefore will cover the locality of
the city and its surrounding where the problem of flooding is frequent leading community
members to displace from their permanent residential places and losses of their properties.

6
Chapter two

2. Review of related literature

2.1 Trends in the frequency and duration of global floods

Trends in global flood losses have been increasing over the past decades and have been
attributed mainly to increasing exposure due to high population growth and economic
development in flood-prone areas (IPCC, 2012). Higher levels of vulnerabilities to extreme
events, especially floods, are becoming a “new normal” in both developing and developed
countries (Najibi, 2018). There is rapidly growing population, assets, and expanding residential
and commercial sectors that are susceptible to damages during these events (Innocentib, 2016).
According to the data report of the World Resources Institute, the global economic loss caused
by flood events was nearly 45.9 billion dollars; as well, 4500 people were killed, accounting for
40% of the global natural disaster deaths in 2019 (World Resources Institute , 2020).

Recent scientific publications support the fact that the occurrences of climate-related disasters
(e.g., flash floods and severe storms) have significantly increased under the abrupt changes
through the hydro-meteorological conditions (Ahmadi ,etal, 2019). On the other side, many
researchers have reported that increasing urbanization can induce higher flash flood occurrences
in urban areas (Shah, 2020). In the short-term and for urban settlements in developing countries
in particular, the factors affecting exposure and vulnerability to flooding are increasing rapidly,
as urbanization broadly defined as the transition from rural to largely urban societies puts more
people and more assets at risk. Rapidly growing informal settlement areas, often termed slums,
in central city and peripheral suburban or per urban locations, are particularly vulnerable to flood
impacts (Abhas and Bernz , 2011).

The flood events in urban areas notably have increased trends influenced by climate change and
urban sprawl expansion, An important point is a balance between urban sprawl development and
climate change effects through the future flash flood susceptibility, in this case urban growth can
be responsible for over 50% of the increase in flood risk, and urban areas face global challenges
of flood susceptibility due to climate change and the development of residential areas and urban

7
sprawl system and pattern (Berndtsson etal, 2019). With the changing global climate and the
impact of human activities on the environment, extreme rainfall events in urban areas are
increasing. Rainstorm and flood disasters have become one of the main natural disasters
affecting the social and economic development of urban areas and the safety of people‟s lives
and property (Yonus, 2021 ). Many scholars have pointed out that with the acceleration of urban
development, the frequency of urban floods is increasing, and the impact on cities is also greatly
enhanced (Yamaguchi, 2012 ). As shown in Figure 0.1, the frequency of global flood disasters
has shown an upward trend in the past three decades.

Figure 0-1 Number of dead, missing and affected by floods in the world 1992–2021
Source: - (Lu, 2023 )

A recent UN habitat report on the state of African cities stated that urban Flooding is one of the
major factors that prevents Africa‟s growing population of city dwellers from escaping poverty,
and stands in the way of the UN 2020 goal of achieving „significant improvement‟ in the lives of
urban slum dwellers (UN@Habitata, 2009). Flood disaster is considered to be one of the most
frequent disasters in the world. According to statistics, the proportion of rainstorm flood disaster
is about 40% of the global losses caused by natural disasters.

8
2.2 The growing challenge of urban flooding in the world
Flooding is a global phenomenon which causes widespread devastation, economic damages and
loss of human lives, immediate loss of life from flooding is increasing more slowly or even
decreasing over time, reflecting the successful implementation of flood risk management
measures (WMO, 2021). While this is encouraging, fatalities still remain high in developing
countries where flood events have a disproportionate impact on the poor and socially
disadvantaged, particularly women and children. The current and projected levels of flood
impacts give urgency to the need to make flood risk management in urban settlements a high
priority on the political and policy agenda. Understanding the causes and effects of flood impacts
and designing, investing in and implementing measures which minimize them must become part
of mainstream development thinking and be embedded into wider development goals (Abhas and
Bernz , 2011).

Urban centers concentrate people, enterprises, infrastructures and public institutions, while at the
same time relying for food, freshwater and other resources from areas outside of their boundaries
(Satterthwaite , 2011). Furthermore, urban areas are often located in hazard-prone locations such
as low-elevation coastal zones, which are at risk from sea-level rise, or in other areas at risk from
flooding and extreme weather events (Kamal-Chaoui and Robert , 2009). The concentration of
people in urban areas increases their vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change impacts,
Vulnerability to flooding is particularly increased where inappropriate, or inadequately
maintained infrastructure, low-quality shelters, and lower resilience of the urban poor intertwine
(Abhas etal, 2010) the fact that rapid urban expansion typically takes place without following
structured or agreed land use development plans and regulations makes conditions even more
problematic.

Urban flooding is an increasingly important issue which may shape the destinies of whole cities
or substantially change the face of them for decades to come. Major urban flooding in the last
decade affected Mumbai, New Orleans, Yangon and Dresden, but smaller scale events, some
regular and repeated in the same populations, can be just as disruptive to the affected areas
(IFRC 2010). Two major global themes lead us to believe that the number and scale of impact of
flood events will continue and possibly accelerate in the next 50 years. The first is the global

9
trend in urbanization which is a defining trend of the early 21st century, in particular the growth
in low to middle income developing countries. The second is environmental change as the
climate warms, sea levels rise and extreme weather events are more frequent. This has led to an
anticipation of much higher risk of flooding in the future. A major cause of local flooding due to
heavy rainfall in many cities is the blocking of drainage facilities with garbage. Cleaning and
maintenance of drainage facilities is essential to their operational reliability. Storm water
retention measures are vital for mitigation of urban floods as well as for prevention of
downstream floods.

2.3 Cause urban flooding

Flooding is currently one of the major threats to cities in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The
demographic change caused by the high rate of natural increase, combined with the migration
toward cities, leads to a strong demand for housing and promotes urbanization (Rashid H, 2015).
Floods are caused by numerous environmental, seasonal and human factors, all flooding can be
dangerous and potentially deadly, although infrastructure and property damage are among the
most common outcomes. Despite the fact that large-scale floods are generally thought of as the
most dangerous, smaller floods and flash floods can cause much harm as well, As little as two
feet of running flood water can sweep away a large automobile and drown a person swept up in
its currents (Abhas, 2011). More importantly, within the urban environment it is not only
increases in the sources of flood water which increase flood hazard. Other anthropogenic factors,
which have an impact on the conveyance of water towards urban areas and which decrease the
ability of urban spaces to disperse water, will also tend to increase the flood hazard within the
urban environment considered (UN-HABITAT, 2003).

Urban flooding occurs when storm water flows into an urban area at a higher rate than it can be
absorbed into the ground or moved to water body (lake, river, etc.) or stored in a reservoir. The
increased flow of water can be due to river floods, flash flooding, coastal flooding, or rapid
snowmelt. Although the factors that cause urban floods are very diverse, they generally can be
seen as the cumulative result of natural and human factors (Hari Ilam & Ashwani Kumar, 2020) ,
The major cause of urban flooding was stated as such followed;

10
 2.3.1 Urbanization
Urbanization is associated with development, higher incomes, better access to employment,
better public services, and better access to information. However, if the urbanization growth rate
exceeds the rate of development, or is accompanied by poor quality institutions, urbanization can
increase population inequality (Alvina Erman & Ingrid Dallmann, 2022). This result in poorer
people being more exposed to poor infrastructure, low quality housing, and natural hazards. In
particular, some urban conditions such as high population and asset densities, unplanned
settlements, low quality drainage systems, unimproved solid waste management, poor housing
conditions, and certain kinds of locations (coastal areas, lowland, near to rivers) increase the risk
of exposure to natural hazards like flooding.

The share of Africans living in urban areas is projected to grow from 42 percent in 2018 to 59
percent in 2050 (UNDRR, 2018). This share is the lowest among world regions. However, after
2020 the urbanization growth rate in Africa is likely to be the highest in the world, overtaking
rates in Asia. Among the countries studied, Ghana has the highest urban population rate (57
percent) and has experienced the highest urban population increase since the mid-1990s (+18
percentage points). It is expected that almost three-quarters of Ghana‟s population will be urban
in 2050. Madagascar and Tanzania have experienced similar urbanization rates, with urban
population shares in 2020 of 38 percent and 35 percent respectively, expected to increase to 58
percent and 55 percent by 2050 (Alvina Erman & Ingrid Dallmann, 2022).

Ethiopia has experienced a slower pace of urbanization and in 2020 had an urban population
share of 22 percent although this is expected to almost double by 2050. The combination of rapid
urbanization, urban poverty, lack of investments in infrastructure and public services, as well as
climate change, has made SSA cities increasingly vulnerable to impacts of flooding and other
natural hazards. Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) data consider flooding as a major event
involving at least significant damage to structures and agriculture, fatalities, and displacements.

One of the most common land use processes is urbanization, which has a significant impact on
the water cycle in cities, including the rainfall-runoff process . This alteration made it possible
for natural systems to become more unstable and raised the likelihood of catastrophic events like
floods and droughts. In general, urbanization makes floods bigger and more frequent, and it may
11
put communities in danger of more frequent floods. Rainfall that is traveling either overland or
subsurface feeds streams. Floods occur when large volumes of runoff flow quickly into streams
and rivers. The peak discharge of a flood is influenced by many factors, including the intensity
and duration of storms and snowmelt, the topography and geology of stream basins, vegetation,
and the hydrologic conditions preceding storm and snowmelt events (U.S. Geological Survey,
2005). Rapid urbanization has become and will continue to be an inevitable and inescapable
phenomenon in the developing world. Unplanned expansion of cities and the impacts of climate
change increase risks and pose challenges to sustainable development. Urban flooding is a
hazard that is attributed to an increase in built-up area and extreme weather events. Despite this,
little has been done to understand the impact of urbanization and climate change, particularly in
the big cities of Africa (Brath & Montanari, 2006).

Addis Ababa is sprawling in height and width, with growth in urban extent outpacing population
growth. The result of this growth is an estimated 46% vacant or underutilized land. At the same
time, Addis ketema sub-city center has extremely high density (up to 30,000 people per km2),
concentrating around 30% of the population on 8% of the land, generally with poor living
conditions. With an increasing built up area, the city is experiencing a decrease in the critical
functions of its ecosystem services. Massive and rapid urbanization increasingly demands more
water, energy, food, land and housing, causing rapid land cover change and alterations in
biochemical cycles and hydro systems, loss of biodiversity and soil degradation (EM DAT,
2016).

2.3.2 Land use land cover system

Land use and cover change (LUCC) and its impacts on the environment have been one of the
increasing concentrations during on-going global changes (Chase, 2010). It is one of the
challenges that aggravate environmental problems. Understanding the scope of land use change,
driving forces, and consequences is very crucial for proper management of land resources.
Nowadays the percentage of urban area still only takes up a very small part of the Earth's surface
(Hao Zhang etal , 2008). However, expansion of human settlements and accompanying activities,
especially the rapid urbanization occurring in the developing countries, play an important role in
global land use and cover change (Masek Jone etal , 2000), causing changes to ecological

12
processes on a local and global scale. Among the impacts associated with LUCC, changes in
hydrological conditions and flood risks have been the focusing issues.

The causes of floods are closely related to topological, meteorological, climatic, biological and
hydrological factors. Nevertheless, as witnessed by floods worldwide, land use and cover change
associated with human activities may change the hydrological processes and increase flood risks
(Brath & Montanari, 2006). Understanding the magnitude, direction and agents of land use/land
cover change (LU/LCC) are important for planning sustainable management of natural resources
and protecting natural hazards.

2.3.3 Meteorological factors

Changes in climate and atmospheric systems of relevance to floods embrace: precipitation
(intensity, volume, timing, phase rain or snow), air temperature (controlling snowmelt and ice-
jam), seasonality and climate variability (Kundzewicz, 2008). Changes in the frequency of heavy
rainfall events can arise from several causes, e.g., changes in atmospheric moisture or
circulation. Global mean temperature increased by 0.6 degree C in the last century, with the
hottest years ever in record occurring after 1990. This warming of the world climate has been
linked to a higher concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, the
consequences of which can be manifested in the higher frequency of extremes such as floods,
droughts and cyclones (UNEP,2006).

Addis Ababa, being a tropical country, has very heavy rainfall throughout the summer season.
Besides, there are other climatic factors that bring in a lot of rain. Global warming results in
extreme weather conditions and is apparent to increase the flood risk significantly; the number of
events is consistent with a warming climate. Even though climate change is an important factor
increasing the chance of those events happening, all the extreme weather events can‟t be linked
to climate change (Trenberth, etal , 2018).

2.4 Consequences of urban flooding

Urban flooding has significant effects, especially in terms of both direct and indirect economic
losses, Risks associated with flooding depend on how exposed individuals and economic activity
are, as well as how vulnerable the social and economic system is. Therefore, it is important to
13
comprehend how these floods affect people's lives and livelihoods as a result of their
vulnerability. Urban poor citizens' health is significantly impacted by other risks that can result
from flooding in dense, underserved areas; Floods in slums can breed water-borne illnesses
including typhoid, scabies, and diarrhea by mixing with raw sewage. Floods cause water supplies
to become contaminated as a result of broken or leaking pipes in slum areas (UN@Habitata,
2009). It has large impacts particularly in terms of economic losses both direct and indirect,
Flood risks are a function of exposure of the people and the economic activities along with the
vulnerability of social and economic fabric. As such the impact of such floods on the lives and
livelihoods of people, a function of their vulnerability, needs to be understood. A number of
urban characteristics particularly in low and middle income countries that have relevance to the
increased flood risks (EM DAT, 2016), the following are the major indirect impacts of urban
flooding:

2.4.1 Economic impacts of flooding

Urban flooding is one of the key global challenges of the twenty-first century, with future flood
risk being exacerbated by climate change, urbanization and ageing infrastructure. By 2050, 68%
of the world‟s population is expected to reside in cities (Emily & Donnell, 2018), elevating flood
risk to people, property and critical infrastructure systems including transport, communications
and energy, and increasing pressure on already overburdened drainage and water management
infrastructure. Any natural disaster has a consequence of both tangible and intangible losses both
economically and socially. When urban flooding occurs, considerable damage to Public
buildings, Public utility works, housing and household assets is common. Loss of earning in
industry and trade, loss of earning to petty shopkeepers and workers, loss of employment to daily
earners, loss of revenue due to road, railway and transportation interruption are among those of
urban flooding economic impacts (Emily & Donnell, 2018).

2.4.2 Social impacts

In many parts of the world, flood fatalities are associated with the most significant weather-
related disasters. Flood damage cost in the developing country is now on the order of several
billion dollars annually, and this figure continues to rise. Many people now live and play in flood-
prone areas: for example, within floodplains of rivers and their tributaries, as well as along coastlines that
are vulnerable to storm-caused flooding from tsunamis, tropical cyclones, and non-tropical storms (Abhas
14
, 2011). The social disruption caused by floods can seriously undermine the quality of life of
individuals and impact on the fabric of affected communities. The psychological impact of the
emergency and aftermath causes longer term effects that may be exacerbated by stresses such as
having to move out of the home, cleaning up, negotiating with insurers and getting damage
repaired and goods replaced (Subah, 2021) Even when the „recovery‟ phase is over, there may be
difficulties caused by living with the ongoing risk, obtaining and paying for insurance and the
effect on house prices. The loss of loved ones can generate deep impacts, especially on
children. Displacement from one's home, loss of property and livelihoods and disruption to
business and social affairs can cause continuing stress. The stress of overcoming these losses can
be overwhelming and produce lasting psychological impacts. Loss of livelihoods, reduction in
purchasing power and loss of land value in the floodplains can leave communities economically
vulnerable. Floods can also traumatize victims and their families for long periods of time
(UN@Habitata, 2009).

2.4.3 Environmental impact

Impervious surfaces are environmental concerns because chains of events are initiated modifying
urban air and water resource. The pavement materials seal the soil surface eliminating rain water
infiltration and natural ground water recharge. Citing a recent article in the Seattle time‟s journal,
(Marco and Camilo, 2010) indicated that, while urban areas cover only 3% of the US, it is
estimated that, their runoff is primary source of pollution in 13% of rivers, 18% of lakes and
32% of estuaries. Urban flooding is responsible for an alarming increase of pollution in the
nature‟s water bodies. Anjelcovy 2001 stated that, storm water runoff may contain organic
wastes, nitrites, bacterium, suspended solids, heavy metals, oils, animal wastes, tire and vehicle
exhausts residues, de-icing chemicals street liters and sediments from construction sites with
resultant effect on water bodies and aquatic ecosystems.

2.5 Flood, incidences, Risk and type

Foods usually result from a combination of meteorological and hydrological extremes, such as
extreme precipitation and flows. However they can also occur as a result of human activities:
flooding of property and land can be a result of unplanned growth and development in
floodplains, or from the breach of a dam or the overtopping of an embankment that fails to
15
protect planned developments (Abhas , 2011). In many regions of the world, people moving
from rural areas to cities, or within cities, often settle in areas that are highly exposed to flooding.
It is also, defined as the inundation of predominantly dry land, and has occurred ever since water
bodies existed on this planet. As societies around the world developed, human presence
increasingly intersected with this phenomenon. Currently, the most densely populated and
rapidly developing areas are located near rivers or on deltas at the coast (WMO, 2021).

In Addis Ababa lack proper records on flood incidences, the available records are unreliable,
although torrential flooding infrequently occurs within various parts of the city. In Addis Ababa;
the length of flooding incidences often remains from mid- June to early September. The main
types of flooding in Addis Ababa include river flooding and storm water run of from steep
slopes. Information obtained from the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs demonstrates the
following flooding incidences: In2005 seven major incidences were occurred affecting 362
households and 1302 family members, in 2008 nine incidences have occurred that affected 131
households along 352 family members, In 2009 , 317 households and 647 family members were
affected registered among six incidences, By 2010 the City report reveals about 147 persons
were affected and 39 residential houses were damaged. In addition heavy rainfall often results in
flooding in pocket areas in Addis Ababa and 10,000will likely are affected by both river and
flash floods during the 2020.

The flood incidences in Addis Ababa have been exacerbated by informal housing occupation and
agricultural practices particularly in high sloping areas like the Jemo mountain chain, Repi hills
and little Akiki Riverbanks. Combined with increasing sea levels and possible changes in rainfall
intensity due to climate change, flooding has evolved into the most frequent and damaging
natural hazard that people face today (Brenden Jongaman, etal , 2018) , Some of flooding types
was discussed in such below.

 Pluvial Flooding
Pluvial flooding is flooding that occurs due to very local rainfall. Most cases of pluvial flooding
can be observed in low-lying, flat polder areas and urban centers. Within cities, the occurrence
of pluvial flooding heavily depends on two main things. The first element includes the amount of
urbanization and the capacity of the soil to absorb rainfall (the degree of accommodation to
16
handle local rainfall by either conveying the floodwater downstream with drainage and
sewerage infrastructure or temporarily storing it in storage ponds or underground sewerage
basins) (WMO, 2021).

 Coastal Flooding
A Coastal Flooding, as the name suggests, occurs in areas that lie on the coast of sea, ocean, or
other large body of open water. It is typically the result of extreme tidal conditions caused by
severe weather. Extreme water levels and flooding along the coast occur due to high tides, storm
surges, high waves, or a combination of these. A storm surge is a rise in the sea surface caused
by storms with low-pressure and strong winds, like extra tropical cyclones or tropical cyclones,
such as hurricanes and typhoons. Coastal flooding is categorized in three levels (WMO, 2021).

 Minor:-A slight amount of beach erosion will occur but no major damage is expected.
 Moderate: A fair amount of beach erosion will as well as damage to some homes and
businesses.
 Major:-serious threat to life and property. Large-scale beach erosion will occur,
numerous roads will be damaged. Citizens should review safety precautions and prepare
to evacuate if necessary (Berndtsson etal, 2019).
 Flash floods
Flash floods are fast-moving waters that sweep everything in their path. They are caused by
heavy rainfall or rapid snow thaw. It happens when the ground cannot absorb the water as
quickly as it falls. This type of flood usually subsides quickly, but while it lasts can be fast-
moving and dangerous. Flash floods usually cover a relatively small area and occur with little to
no notice, generally less than six hours. The rapid water torrents can move large objects such as
cars, rocks, and tree (EM DAT, 2016).

 River floods
River floods is one of the most common types of inland flood; occurring when a body of water
exceeds its capacity. River flood is characterized by gradual riverbank overflows caused by
extensive rainfall over an extended period of time. The areas covered by river floods depend on
the size of the river and the amount of rainfall. River floods rarely result in loss of lives but can
cause immense economic damage (WMO, 2021).
17
 Urban floods
Urban floods occur when the drainage system in a city or town fails to absorb the water from
heavy rain. The lack of natural drainage in an urban area can also contribute to flooding. Water
flows out into the street, making driving very dangerous. Although water levels can be just a few
inches deep, urban floods can cause significant structural damage (WMO, 2021).

2.6 Settlement of urban areas and impact of flooding

Flooding has been around on earth longer than man, Humans have always tried to settle near
rivers, using them for transport, water supplies and waste disposal. The areas near to rivers are
generally flat and suitable for human settlement, hence the human presence. The historical
development of the use of free areas explains the today‟s urban constraints. Owing to the major
challenge of transport in the past, the river was used as a main route. Cities developed on the
banks of rivers or on sea or lake shores. Through the experience of the former inhabitants, the
population always tried to inhabit the highest areas where the river was least accessible. With the
rapid and disorderly growth of the cities, mainly in the second half of the last century, the high-
risk areas, such as flood plains, were settled, leading to much loss of life and material damage
(Tucci, May,2007).

Increasing temperatures and sea levels, changing precipitation patterns and more extreme
weather are threatening human health and safety, food and water security and socioeconomic
development in Africa. Climate change is a major determinant factor impacting Addis Ababa‟s
resilience and the resilience of its urban water system. Several studies suggest that climate
variability and change is leading to increased incidences of drought and flooding affecting
people‟s everyday life in Addis Ababa (Terrefe, 2020). Climate change has manifested itself
through an increase in maximum temperature, increasing rainfall during the Kiremt (long) rains
and decreasing rainfall during the Belg (short) rains. The incidence of heavy rainfall events
during Kiremt months (June-September) significantly increased over the past several decades
leading, more recently, to flash floods. These findings corroborate observations of increased flood risks
and untimely rains that farmers are experiencing impacting farming and agricultural activities. Besides,
the city is exposed to heat waves (increased frequency of hot days and hot nights) and drought.

18
During the last 2020 the maximum temperature increased by 0.9°C. Further projections estimate
an increase in mean annual temperatures of 1.5°C in 2050 and 2.1°C in 2080 respectively.
Arguably one of the most widespread and potentially devastating impacts of climate change on
the water system in Addis Ababa and the region will be changes in the frequency, intensity, and
predictability of precipitation. Precipitation is also likely to change with a projected increase in
the highest precipitation of 16.62% by 2080and an increase of mean annual rainfall of 35 to 50%
by 2050. Changes in regional precipitation will ultimately affect water availability and may lead
to decreased agricultural production and potentially widespread food shortages (Weldesilassie,
2014).

Figure 0-1 Addis Ababa flood risk map

Source: (Feyissa et al., 2018)

2.7 Impacts of floods on dwellers in marginal settlements

“There is no doubt that floods are a major threat for the inhabitants of marginal settlements. Most
people in slums fear them because the floods limit the access to fundamental needs, like food,
drinking water, clothes and shelter. When floodwater enters a slum area, finding dry places to

19
sleep, drying clothes, getting drinking water, earning money, and cooking food gets difficult if
not impossible” (TbourAbheure, 2011), Increasing temperatures and sea levels, changing
precipitation patterns and more extreme weather are threatening human health and safety, food
and water security and socioeconomic development in Africa. Climate change is a major
determinant factor impacting Addis Ababa‟s resilience and the resilience of its urban water
system. Several studies suggest that climate variability and change is leading to increased
incidences of drought and flooding affecting people‟s everyday life in Addis Ababa city
(Berndtsson etal, 2019).

2.7.1 Flooding in slums area

Slums, by definition, are inclined to be located in hazardous areas (Douglas etal , 2010). These
include areas prone to flooding such as river floodplains, foreshore areas on mangrove swamps,
or tidal flats and flashflood. Moreover, the high population density added to a lack of protection
against climate change and sea level rise makes the urban poor increasingly vulnerable to
flooding (Scovronick N, Lloyd S, Kovats , 2015). According to the United Nations International
Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR), rare big flooding events account for the biggest
losses of lives and assets in urban poor settlements, where smaller more frequent events result in
fewer deaths. However, the latter have predominant impact on urban poor due to the fact that
there are events affecting their daily life, causing damage to housing, infrastructure, livelihoods,
as well as their health.

Slums are a common attribute of urbanization and urban settlement patterns in the developing. The actual
number of people living in slums grew to over 1 billion, with 80 percent attributed to three regions:
Eastern and South-Eastern Asia (370 million), sub-Saharan Africa (238 million), and Central
and southern Asia (227 million). The total population of slum dwellers across the world is estimated to
reach 3 billion by 2030 (kassaw, 2015 ). (Douglas etal , 2010) study of the urban poor in Africa
presents the effects of flooding on slums. Among different causes of flooding, the study
highlights how slums in urban areas are most often subject to localized flooding events and
flooding from small streams. Moreover, the study also specifies that slums located near major
rivers and on coastal areas face an additional level of vulnerability and threat. The main threat
caused by floods is not the flood itself but the stagnant water added to water pollution, in other
words, prolonged floods (Ballesteros etal , 2016). They are caused by extensive urbanization,
20
waterlogging, overly saturated grounds, and blockage of the sewage and drain systems by solid
wastes. Indeed, slums‟ growing population increases waste productions which are accumulating
on-site due to the absence of proper waste management. For example, in Dhaka, only half of the
total wastes are collected, and no waste collection is made in slums due to access difficulties.

The impact of prolonged floods on dwellers drastically limits access to basic needs such as food,
drinkable water, medicines, and cloth as well as access to sanitation, shelters, and dry places to
sleep (Rashid H, 2015). Flooding also disrupts small-scale activities like petty and artisanal
trading, thus threatening slum dwellers‟ livelihoods. Indeed, Kanke Arachchilage (2013) shows
how flooding disrupts the economic activities of rickshaw pullers. As streets are converted to
streams, they are unable to work. Rather than get to a safer area, slum dwellers are often in a
state of forced inertia during flooding conditions in order to not displace their assets and social
and livelihood networks. Nevertheless, post-disaster, more than 50% of households have to be
rebuilt or repaired (Jabeen & Johnson , 2010).

2.7.2 Vulnerability of Urban Poor towards Urban Floods

Slums which works as shock absorbers of cities, provides space for the lower and deprived
section of the society. These slums are the most vulnerable sections not only in terms of lack of
civic services but also prone to natural disaster. Urban flood has multiple effects on human
society, these can be primary effects like causalities and property loss, secondary effects like
contamination of water, loss of entire harvest and spread of water borne diseases or tertiary
effects like economic hardship, loss of tourism, food shortage, rebuilding costs, price increase
(Manju YadavK.K. Dhote etal, 2014).

According to Alemayehu (2008), slums of Addis Ababa can be categorized into three types:
Non-planned old inner-city settlements dominated by Keble housing and occupied by tenants
with some tenure rights, Informal peripheral squatter settlements, built on vacant land with little
or no infrastructure and with uncertain or no tenure rights, Inner-city squatters with no tenure
rights. These are plastic houses that are built occupying parts of public parks, squares, vacant
open spaces, and as attachments to streets side fences. A closer look into previous studies on
slums in Ethiopia could unveil the fact that the vast majority of the studies were conducted on
the so-called old inner-city slum neighborhoods of Addis Ababa Metropolitan city. It can
21
particularly be noticed that, as though there were no other slum neighborhoods in the city,
studies after studies were conducted on inner-city slums such as Arat kilo, Piazza, Merkato, and
Lideta areas, etc. (Alemayehu, E.Y, 2008); (Heliyon, 2021) (Weldeghebrael, 2020)

It is observed that in case of heavy rainfall the low lying areas, areas on the periphery of water
bodies and settlements near dumping ground are severely affected. The poor infrastructure,
housing condition and capability to tackle natural disaster makes the inhabitants more vulnerable
towards any natural disaster. As the slum dwellers do not have proper infrastructure for storm
water drainage, road network for evacuation and rescue operation, Lack of sanitation facilities
leads to poor hygiene and contaminates the drinking water in a way the overall environmental is
deteriorated. Poor economic conditions and loss of wages worsen the situation. Hence it is the
demand of the time to find solutions which can be executed locally by the residents (Manju
YadavK.K. Dhote etal, 2014).

“There is no doubt that floods are a major threat for the inhabitants of marginal settlements.
Most people in slums fear them because the floods limit the access to fundamental needs, like
food, drinking water, clothes and shelter. When floodwater enters a slum area, finding dry places
to sleep, drying clothes, getting drinking water, earning money, and cooking food gets difficult if
not impossible” (TbourAbheure, 2011), Increasing temperatures and sea levels, changing
precipitation patterns and more extreme weather are threatening human health and safety, food
and water security and socioeconomic development in Africa. Climate change is a major
determinant factor impacting Addis Ababa‟s resilience and the resilience of its urban water
system. Several studies suggest that climate variability and change is leading to increased
incidences of drought and flooding affecting people‟s everyday life in Addis Ababa city
(Berndtsson etal, 2019).

2.8 Coping Strategies to urban flooding

Coping strategies are often complex depend on the assumption that an event will follow a
familiar pattern, and that actions that were taken before to cope are a reasonable guide for similar
events (Jabeen, et al ,2009 cited in Wisner et al. 2004). They operate within different scales like,

22
individual level (household), community level (e.g. neighborhood) or institutional (e.g. city-wide
or beyond). According to UNFCCC, 2004 coping strategies take different forms at different
levels the following are some of them.

Preventative strategies at the individual and small group level means people making
choices so that they will not be affected by an event, such as avoiding dangerous places at
certain times or choosing safe residential locations.
Impact minimizing strategies – These are strategies to minimize loss and to facilitate
recovery in the event of a loss. This is generally referred to as „mitigation‟ in disaster
literature, but „adaptation‟ in climate change literature.
Diversifying income sources: Having more than one, or sometimes several, income
earners in the family allows for diversification. If families have contributed to savings
groups, this can offer a form of income during hard times.
Development of social support networks: This is the ability to call on the resources of
others during difficult times. Networks can be within the household, between extended
family members, within neighborhoods, and with wider groups who have a shared
identity (religious, geographic, commercial, and others).

2. 9. Conceptual frame work of the study

The paper is based on an extensive literature review. In mind of this a systematic scrutiny of
peer-reviewed was done in different research papers, books, Article and journals on the topic of
Trends in the frequency and duration of flood from the global to the local context, the growing
challenge of urban flooding from the world to the local study area, Cause and consequences
urban flooding, Flood, incidences, Risk and type and in addition the researcher also to address
what seems like Settlement of urban areas and impact of flooding, Flooding in slums area and
coping mechanism of this incidences was clearly reviewed from the above sources. The
conceptual frame work of the study was carried out in three phases. In the first phase, conceptual
frameworks on the impacts of urban flooding and its assessment from the perspective of direct
and indirect impact were shortlisted. In the second phase, causes of urban flooding were searched
with considered to meteorological factors, urbanization and land uses land cover system. Lastly,

23
screening of empirical studies on urban flood hazard impacts based on the short listed causes was
conducted.

Figure 0-1 Conceptual Frame Work of the study

Source: - (Commuted by the researcher, 2022)

24
Chapter three

3. Description of the study area and Research Methodology

3.1 Description of the study area

3.1.1. Location
Addis Ababa is located at 9°2' north latitude and 38°42' east longitude, with an elevation ranging
from 2,100 meters at Akaki in the south to 3,000 meters at Entoto Hill in the north (Selamwit
Birhanu , 2017). The city‟s altitude is decreasing from the northern mountainous area to the
south, and the highest and lowest altitude ranging between 3040 m and 2050 m above sea level.
Two major rivers flow through the city, namely Tinishu Akaki (Little Akaki) and Tiliku Akaki
(Great Akaki) Rivers. These rivers, which are tributaries of Awash River, originate from the
Entoto Mountains that are located north to Addis Ababa and flow to Aba Samuel Lake (43 km to
the South). The entire city falls under the Awash River Basin respectively which is one of the
twelve river basins of the country. The city is located in the upstream of the Awash River Basin,
and on the north bounded by the dividing ridge of the Awash and Abay basins (Selamwit
Birhanu , 2017).

Addis Ketema Sub city is one of the 11 Sub cities of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. The sub city is
located in the North Western area of the city, not far from its Centre. It borders with the sub
cities of Gullele in the North, Arada in the East, Lideta and Kolfe Keraniyo in the South and
Oromia region in the West.

25
Figure 0-1 Study Area Map
Source: Arc GIS 10.8 developed by the researcher

3.1.2 Climate of Addis Ababa

Addis Ababa has a subtropical mountain climate. The city has a complex combination of high-
altitude climates, with temperature differences of up to 10°C depending on altitude and
wind dominance. Due to their high altitude, temperatures are mild all year round, and the cities
close to the equator mean that temperatures remain constant throughout the month. Therefore,
since the average monthly temperature does not exceed 22°C, the climate that
does not take into account the altitude becomes a marine climate. Since Addis Ababa is located
around the equator its temperature stays nearly constant month to month with no more than 100
changes and a temperate climate due to its high altitude location in the subtropics. According to
Koppen climate classification the weather of Addis Ababa is warm and temperate having the
average annual temperature 16.3 °C. Precipitation here averages 1143 mm (NMA, 2022).
Climate change is one of the major threats in Addis with more frequent flooding events, extreme
26
precipitation and temperatures resulting in heat waves and other disasters. Heavy rainfall often
results in flooding in pocket areas in Addis Ababa and 10,000will likely be affected by both river
and flash floods during the 2020 kiremt season.

3.1.3 Population and Population Growth

Addis Ababa is one of the fastest-growing cities in Africa and hosts a quarter of the countries‟
total urban population. The city population currently is estimated to be more than 4.7 million
people, with a higher population of female than male residents. Addis Ababa is the single largest
urban center in the country and is currently growing at an annual rate of 3.8%, making it one of
the fastest urbanizing cities in the world - projected to grow to over 7.3 million people by 2030.
The central part of the city – Addis Ketema, Arada and Lideta are densely populated sub cities
(Cochraneand Costolanski ., 2013).

Addis Ababa has a large youth population partly due to high rural–urban migration and internal
displacements. 11% of the city‟s residents are under 5 years old and 58% of the population is
under the age of 30. Although Ethiopia is currently considered as one of the fastest growing
economies in Sub-Saharan Africa, young people are facing numerous challenges including
poverty, unemployment, recurrent droughts, political unrest and ethnic conflicts, shortage of
food and water, displacement and migration, among others.

The population density varies between sub-cities. The highest density is in Addis Ketema sub-city
(37,215 persons per square kilometer). The lowest density is in Akaki Kality sub-city (1832 p/sk.km). All
the sub-cities in the downtown have a high population density compared to sub-cities found in peripheral
areas. A fast rate of urban expansion is occurring, and built-up areas are rapidly increasing in Addis
Ababa (Zeleke, 2018).

3.1.4 Economic context

Addis Ababa is the engine of Ethiopia‟s rapidly expanding economy. Although the city
represents only 3.6% of the country‟s total population, it contributes 30% of national urban GDP
and 68% of total urban jobs. The city is also the seat of African Union (AU) and United Nations
Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA,) and because of that many embassies and
international organizations have offices in the city. The service sector- hotels, catering and
banking are the major jobs and employment generating sector of the city.
27
In addition, the city‟s economy takes the lion share of the country‟s wholesale and retail trade.
Moreover, Addis Ababa is a hub for the production of footwear, tanning and dressing of leather
and wine, products which are also exported and bring in foreign currency. Construction is
booming and one of the major employment sectors of the city‟s economy (Hobson and Mukim,
2018).

In general, the Federal urban development policy envisions the city to be the main economic hub
specialized in higher tech industries and services within a polycentric system of cities. In
2018/19 fiscal year the total revenue of the city was 44.7 billion ETB, which includes tax
revenue, non-tax revenue, municipal service charges and investment income, external assistance,
and loan (Hobson and Mukim, 2018).

3.1.5 Housing
There is lack of comprehensive data in Housing. The last housing census conducted was in 2007.
However, even this data paints a dismal picture. In 2007 census the housing stock in Addis
Ababa was found to be 628,986 units. Out of this stock more than 75 % is made of mud and
wood and half of them are more than 20 years old. In terms of services, 98 % get tapped water
but only 32% of houses have private connections; 15% have no toilets, while 62 % have shared
toilets. More than 80% have no bathing facility, and 20 % have no kitchen. A significant number
of housing stocks in Addis Ababa is government owned rental housing. These rental houses are
of two types the kebele houses are administered by local government and are low quality rental
dwellings that were earlier privately owned but were nationalized by the Derg regime in 1975.

3.1.6 Land use land Cover system

Understanding the magnitude, direction and agents of land use/land cover change (LU/LCC) are
important for planning sustainable management of natural resources and improving climate
related disaster risks. A critical look at the situations in 1999 and 2014 shows that the built-up
area increased from 134 to 200 km, this implies that the city is consuming the ecosystems at a
speed of 4.5 km2 annually. More importantly, the downward trend in Addis Ababa‟s ecosystems
significantly weakens the resilience to stress and shocks of the whole urban system (such as
urban food insecurity and vulnerability to droughts or floods) and worsens the likely impacts of
climate change related hazards on the city (EM DAT, 2016).
28
3.2 Methods and materials

3.2.1 Research design

According to (Creswell, 2009) , a research design means a plan of regarding time, methods and
statistical tools that will be used to undertake research paper. It is a blue print of the whole study
method. Kendra, (2019) unlike longitudinal studies which look at a group of people over an
extended period, cross-sectional studies are used to describe what is happening at the present
moment. This type of research is frequently used to determine the prevailing characteristics in a
population at a certain point in time. For example, a cross-sectional study might be used to
determine if exposure to specific risk factors might correlate with particular outcomes. . In this
regard, this study used different research design to conduct the study. In terms of time
dimension, this study employed cross-sectional research design, to obtain that data at one point
in time from sample respondents.

This study was assessed the impacts of urban flooding on slum resident‟s in the city of Addis
Ababa with special reference to slum residents living in Addis ketema sub city. The research will
carry out using cross-sectional study design with mixed approaches (quantitative and
qualitative). Since, all the two approaches have their own limitations, researchers felt that biases
inherent in any single approach could neutralize or cancel the biases of other approaches
(Creswell, 2009).

3.2.2 Research methods

Research method is a strategy or technique that used in a collection of data/evidence for analysis
in order to uncover new information or create better understanding of a topic. There are three
types of research methods; quantitative, qualitative and mixed research. The first two research
types use different data collection tools, but mixed type research uses qualitative and quantitative
data collection tools together. Interview, focus group discussion (FGD) and Field observation are
data collection tools of qualitative research. Rain fall data and temperature are for quantitative
research method (SAGE, 2022).For this study mixed research will apply. This research method is
relevant for the researcher to describe causes of urban flooding and its impacts as well as coping
strategies adopted in response to the emergency in Addis ketema sub-city.

29
3.2.3 Source of the research data
3.2.3.1 Primary data
Primary data sources are records by those who actually witnessed an event or entail personal
experience of an event itself (Kitchin & Tate, 2013). In this research the primary data will collect
from the Environmental Protection office, Addis ketema Rivers and Riversides Development
Project Officers, and slum dwellers that living along Addis ketema sub-city will collect with in
Key informative interview, Focus group discussion, Household survey and Field observation
methods.

3.2.3.2 Secondary data

In simple terms, secondary data is every dataset not obtained by the author, or “the analysis of
data gathered by someone else and it may include data that has been previously gathered and is
under consideration to be reused for new questions, for which the data gathered was not
originally intended” (Vartanian, 2010). In this study the secondary data sources will be Sentinel
–image 1 and Published materials such as books, articles, reports, empirical findings and other
related documents. In this research the most important sources of the secondary data will be
Addis ketema sub-city Rivers and Riversides Development Project Office document related to
urban flooding and Different reputable websites will use Sentinel -1 image, Arc GIS ,RS satellite
image from are Earth Explorer, Global Land Cover Facility (GLCF) and Google Earth.
Similarly, from National Metrological Agency (NMA) will the most important source for
meteorological data (such as temperature and rainfall data) while Central Statistical Agency
(CSA) of Ethiopia will use for demographic data of Addis Ababa and Addis ketema sub-city.

3.2.4 Qualitative Research Method Data Collection Tools

3.2.4.1 Focus group discussion
Focus group discussion will use to get more information about the issue of the research. FGD is
one of a data gathering tools in which groups of people meet to discuss their experience and
thoughts about specific topics with each other and the researcher (Mike Crang & Ian Cook,
2007) . As a result, it will use to get ample information from the discussions and idea sharing of
the groups under study. Some households living in Addis ketema will select purposively. On this
ground, participants for FGDs will ask their willingness and the time for FGD will arrange at that

30
time based on their consent. The observed impacts of urban flooding on slum resident and factors
of flooding effects along Addis ketema sub-city in Addis Ababa will the main topics of
discussion.

3.2.4.2 Key Informative Interview

The study will employ key informant interviews to get ample information on personal thought,
Knowledge, experience and attitude. Interview is the most commonly used qualitative technique
which can provide rich sources of data on people‟s experiences, opinions, aspirations and
feelings (Kitchin & Tate, 2013). Having this in mind, in this study, higher officials of Addis
ketema Rivers and Riversides Development Project Office and Addis Ababa Fire and Emergency
Prevention and Rescue Agency (AAFEPRA) were interviewed.

3.2.4.4 Field observation

Observation entails the systematic noting and recording of events, behaviors, and artifacts in a
social and physical setting (Kitchin & Tate, 2013). The researcher of this study had an
opportunity to see the actual situation of the flooding zone and some parts of Addis ketema slum
area as well as the hilly areas in/around Addis Ababa that are said to be source of urban flooding
in the city.

3.2.5 Quantitative Research Methods Data Collection Tool

3.2.5 Household Survey
Survey has different strengths like with survey software; advanced statistical techniques can be
utilized to analyses survey data to determine validity, reliability, and statistical significance,
including the ability to analyses multiple variables. Also numerous questions can be asked about
a subject, giving extensive flexibility in data analysis. The weaknesses of survey data will be like
respondents may not feel encouraged to provide accurate, honest answers. Surveys with closed
ended questions may have a lower validity rate than other question types. Mostly, data errors due
to question non-responses may exist (DeFranzo, 2022).

Household survey had been used to obtain information about the issue pertaining to the slum
area dwellers of the study area. Pre-coded questionnaire had been prepared and directly
administered by the researcher and enumerator (who are psychology, statistics and biology
degree holders) through using local language. Accordingly, sample household member of the
31
study had been selected using sample size determination formula to participate in the study to
answer survey questions.

3.2.6 Sampling design

Purposive sampling is one of the sampling techniques will design and use in this study. Since, it
is a type of non-probability sampling technique by which the researcher selects her/his samples
based on his/her own judgment that enables the researcher to select samples that are familiar
with a certain issue raised by the researcher (Kitchin & Tate, 2013) So that, the researcher will
use purposive sampling in order to select samples who have knowledge about the purpose of the
study. The researcher will carefully determine the size of the samples who conduct Key
informant interview and FGD (Focus Group Discussion).

To select the samples, primarily the researcher will evaluate the general background including
their position and knowledge, to know and to assure their ability to give adequate information
about the study. So, to conduct the interview, three head officials from Addis Ababa Fir and
Disaster Risk management, From Addis ketema Sub-city Environmental protection office and
from Addis Ketema Sub-city River side development office. On the other hand, to conduct FGD,
the researcher will select samples from different group of people living in slum area of Addis
ketema sub-city.

3.2.7 Population of the study area

This study had been conduct in Addis Ketema Sub-city, the 2022 projection showed that 359,735
with 2.3% of annual population change from 2007-2022 in Addis ketema sub-city. The sub city
was an area which faced by issues regarding the health and social problem especially flooding in
river side slum area dwellers.

3.2.8 Sampling Procedure

To draw valid conclusions from a study results, the researcher have to carefully decide how to
select a sample that is representative of the group as a whole. The researcher should clearly
explain how he/she selected the sample in the methodology section of paper. Probability 24
sampling allow the researcher to make strong statistical inferences about the whole group and
non-probability sampling which involves non-random selection based on convenience or other
criteria allow the researcher to collect data easily (McCombes, 2022).
32
For this study both probability and non-probability sampling techniques will use to draw the
required number of sample units. The rationale behind employing non-probability sampling and
probability sampling design is the fact that it allows the researchers to select cases that will be
the representative of the general population from which they will be drawn. Hence, in this study
the researcher had been used purposive sampling to select known persons of the area,
government officials and Expert official purposively for key informant interview. For the above
interviewees groups there had been three (3) respondents for each which believed by the
researcher the number is enough for key informant interview data gathering.

The researchers will focus on the three woredas from the newly 14 woredas that will be
impacting urban flooding using Sentinel -1 image with Snap software analysis and in
information that will collect from primary and secondary data of this research. For quantitative
data collection, simple random sampling will apply and by using sample size determination
formula. Among 347 houses in three selecting woerda which are exist in side of slum area and
flood prone areas of Woerda 03,Woerda 05 and Werda 06 respectively. Household members
from all the three selecting woerda who are above the age of 18 will be participate for survey
study. Finally, observation will be apply.

From the total number of households in the target population, the researcher used the following
formula designed by Yamane (1967) to determine the sample size of survey respondents from
the total population.

( ) Where

( ) n= Sample size required

( ) N= Population size

e= Margin of error (5%)

n = 347/ 1.8675

n = 347/ 1.8675

n=186

33
Therefore sample size of 186 riverside slum area dwellers were selected for survey. Based on the
above sample size determination calculation result, out of the total houses which exist in river
side slum area, 54% (186 respondents) sample had been drawn by the researcher for survey
respondents

3.3.9 Research instrumentations

Rainfall data: - In this research the researcher will use 2010-2022 precipitation and temperature
data of Addis Ababa which will upload from NAMA to identify the trends of rainfall intensity,
temperature extremes and its impact on the existence of urban flooding in slum residential area.
The basic instrument to show the trends of decadal precipitation will be Microsoft Excel.

GIS and RS data: - Recently, the integration of Geographic Information System (GIS)
techniques and remote sensing (RS) data, worked very effective to deal with the complexity of
spatial flood modeling. Remote sensing systems have been widely known as useful resources to
offer cost and time efficient situational awareness over large areas in case of natural disasters (Li
Y Martinis S and Wieland Martinis, 2019) in this research the researcher will use Shape file map
from Arc GIS10.8 and RS satellite image from Earth explorer /USGS will employ in this
research to show the study area map and to make LULCM of the study area respectively.

Sentinel-1 image: - The Sentinel-1 SAR image is developed by the Europe Space Agency (ESA)
in the Copernicus Program it is also an open source data which offers good data to develop
flood inundation mapping. The flood inundation mapping is essential information for local
authority personals or researchers to develop flood inventory map. The SNAP software was used
to pre-processing the Sentinel-1A data. The pre-processing procedures are including radiometric
calibration, speckle filtering, terrain correction, sub-setting the SAR image, and re-projection.
After pre-processing, the threshold method (binarization) was used verify the flooded areas and
non-flooded areas. Then, the flood inundation map will validate by using confusion matrix. This
method is widely used to validate the image classification especially for remote sensing data.

34
Figure 0-1 Flow chart of method to use sentinel -1 image
Source:-Modified from (Saleh et al, 2020).

3.4 Method of Data Analysis

In this research the data, both qualitative and quantitative data analysis will employ depend on
the nature of the data will collect. The quantitative data will analyze and interpret using
percentage, graphs, tables and narrative discussions. The qualitative data will analyze and
interpret by using photographs (plats), Satellite image. After check the data will collect from the
sample households, municipality officials, the mayor and senior administration officials of the
town, respondent‟s data matrix will prepare then the data will coded and fill in SPSS and Ms-
Excel will also use for some constructive summery.

35
Figure 0-1 Research data interpretation and Analysis processes flow chart
Source :- (Computed by the researcher, 2022)

3.6 Ethical Considerations

Research ethics are considered with the extent to which the researcher is ethically and morally
responsible to his/her participants; the research sponsors and other concerned bodies who have a
contribution in his/her research (Kitchin & Tate, 2013). Efforts were made to make the research
process professional and ethical.

First of all, initial contacts will make with those higher government officials and sample
populations to introduce myself and explain the purpose of the research. Then after, the
discussants and respondents will met and ask their willingness to conduct FGD and key
36
informative interview. On the other hand, during field observation any IMAGE data collection as
well as the collection of secondary materials such as meteorological data, reports, Articles,
books and other related documents, the researcher assured permission will be with in formal
letter. To this end, the researcher has attempted to communicate the respondents about the
purpose of the study i.e. purely for academic.

As it was introduced in the introductory part of the questionnaire, respondents and informants
assured that, confidentiality would be protected. In addition, participants of the study were
involved in the study based on their consents. The researcher also did not personalize any of the
response of the respondents during data presentation, analysis and interpretation. Furthermore,
all the materials used for this research have been duly acknowledged.

37
 Chapter four

4. Time Table and Budget Schedule

4.1 Time schedule
In this research the researcher layout the schedule or timetable of activities and the period in
which the research is to be conduct with due regard to budgetary limitation. It could be will
present in a tabular form indicating activity, duration, and dates. It is preferable on a Gantt chart.

Table 1 Time schedule

Activity/ Tasks June July Aug Sep Oc Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Remarks
t
Title selection Done
Concept note preparation „‟‟‟‟‟‟‟‟

Gathering information „‟‟‟‟‟‟‟‟

Writing Literature review „‟‟‟‟‟‟‟‟

Proposal writing „‟‟‟‟‟‟‟‟

Proposal submission& „‟‟‟‟‟‟‟‟

presentation

Correction for the given Doing

comment and suggestion with
final submission of the
proposal
Data collection and Will do
organization
Data analysis and Will do
interpretation

38
Writing the draft thesis Will do
proposal

Submitting the final thesis to Will do

the advisor
Final thesis submission & Based on
ready for defense the
Schedule

4.2 Budget schedule

In this research the budget consists amount of activities and items that are necessary to carry out
this research based on the objective. This financial plan and resources are needed for the
implementation of this research. As much as possible the researcher will cover all the costs to
clear and reasonable (affordable) and preferably activity based how much costs, times& labors to
need and all it is also itemized according to an acceptable format such followed.

Table 2 Work finical plan

Service Activity Unit Quantity Unit price Total price Remarks
no:-

1 Stationary cost like Dozen 2 800 birr(A4 paper*1 ) 1600 birr

A4 Paper Pen 10*10
Pen
Others
2 Copy and printing cost Page 480 5 birr 2400 birr Will copy
Three
times

3 Digital Camera service No 1 150 birr 1500 birr Will Rent

To
capture
quality
photo
during
survey
4 Data processing like Page 15 15 birr 225 birr Color
GIS, RS and SPSS copy
output cost

39
5 Data Flash 16GB 1 550birr 550 birr

6 Work related costs like No 15 50 birr 750 birr Searching

mobile card internet informati
service fee. on

7 Field observation and No 4 300 birr 1200birr Water and

FGD cost Coffee
for FGD
desiccant
8 Transportation cost Km 15 10birr 150birr
Subtotal = 8375birr

Contingency cost 2093.75 birr

25% 10468.75

Grande total= birr

40
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