Monthly Summary Report, November 2022
Monthly Summary Report, November 2022
The path of ‘soft landing’ of the overheated economy has further narrowed as the lower unemployment rate of 3.7% coupled with
wages growth of 5.1% during November poured a “cold November rain” on the US economy. After a series of four aggressive 75 bps
rate hikes, Jerome Powell thought the Fed would increase the target rate by 50bps in the upcoming December Jackson hole symposium
as the inflation seems to cool down. Though October US inflation edged down to 7.7%, ticking down workforce participation in addition
to net zero carbon policy, geopolitical rivalries, and structural supply deficits in key commodities will keep the inflation elevated for a
longer period than expected. Hence, without absorbing a deeper economic shock, the central bank may not tame down the inflation
to the target level of 2%. The ramifications of global economic ongoing turmoil are strengthening the USD against the emerging market
currencies which is putting pressure on the balance of payments. Bangladesh’ forex reserve tumbled to USD 33.79 bn which is
depleting faster due to heavy import payments, and multiple currency exchange rates. In the meantime, the single month export
earnings of USD 5.09 during November was an all-time high in terms of monthly collections due to picking up orders of RMG goods.
Despite record export earnings and incremental remittance inflow of USD 1.5 bn during November, current account deficit aggravated
to USD 4.5 bn as the import payments during the period of July-Oct period surged to USD 25.51 bn which is continuously weakening
the local currency. Moreover, sales of USD 6.5 bn to the commercial banks, rising of NPL, and money market liquidity crisis with ‘call
money rate of 5.83%’ are looming an unprecedented liquidity crisis in the banking sector. The interest cap of 9% is penting up the
private credit loan demand but the stressed liquidity in the banking sector and higher yields in G-sec dragged down the private sector
credit growth in October to 13.91%. The major headwind of our economy is a potential liquidity crunch. To avoid the crisis and keep
afloat the financial system of our country, the central bank should inject liquidity even though the price level & expected inflation
dominate the liquidity effects.
CAPITAL MARKET
• BSEC plans case-to-case dealings to get rid of negative equity by 2023: https://rb.gy/hzdg8p
• Dozen companies plan to raise Tk700cr from stock market for expansion: https://rb.gy/auhtnf
• Floor price relaxed for just block market trading: https://rb.gy/69qlqm
• Bond market not gaining momentum due to low demand: https://rb.gy/gd13ft
• Default loans in NBFIs rise over Tk1,000cr in 3 months: https://rb.gy/9rs1aj
INTERNATIONAL
• U.S retail sales surged by 1.3% in October: https://rb.gy/tmpjvz
• British retail sales rise in October but stay below pre-Covid levels: https://rb.gy/takjxs
• Fed and ECB in focus: https://rb.gy/qxfrh1
1
November (2022)
MACRO UPDATE
FY 2022-23 FY 2021-22 % Change
Export (mn $) (Jul-Nov) 21,946 19,791 10.9%
Import (mn $) (Jul-Oct) 27,560 25,831 6.7%
Remittances (mn $) (Jul-Nov) 8,787 8,608 2.1%
Tax Revenue (NBR) (mn $) (Jul-Sep) 7,060 6,881 2.6%
Total Domestic Credit (mn $) (Sep) 182,430 156,011 16.9%
Credit to the Private Sector (mn $) (Oct) 146,226 128,372 13.9%
Broad Money M2 (mn $) (Oct) 181,765 167,838 8.3%
LC Opening of Industrial Raw Material (mn $) (Jul-Sep.) 6,387 7,476 -14.6%
LC Opening of Capital Machinery (mn $) (Jul-Sep.) 607 1,771 -65.7%
Current Account Balance (mn $) (Jul-Oct.) (4,501) (3,834) N/A
Net Sales of National Savings Certificates (mn $) (Jul-Sep) (61) 900 -106.8%
This Month Last Month % Change
Foreign Exchange Reserve (mn $) 33,790 35,809 -5.6%
Call Rate (Weighted Average Rate) 5.83 5.80 0.5%
Taka-Dollar Exchange Rate (Avg) 103.27 103.17 0.1%
Oct’22 Sep’22 % Change
US Retail Sales (mn $) 694,518 685,794 1.3%
UK Retail Sales (mn $) 10,090 10,027 0.6%
Source: Bangladesh Bank, US Census Bureau, UK Office for National Statistics
Export earnings increased record of $5.09 during Inflation reduced to 8.5% in November as the food
Nov’22 due to higher orders from the foreign inflation cooled down to 8.14% afd
markets.
May-22
May-11
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-12
Nov-10
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
Nov-22
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
Nov-10
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
Nov-22
y
o
u
November inward remittances inched up by 2.64% Forex reserve decreased significantly In November
as higher human capital migrated in recent months from the previous month due to high import
r payments.
r
Remittance (in bn US$) e Foreign Exchange Reserve (in bn USD)
3.0 56.0
2.5 a 1.59 49.0
2.0 42.0 33.8
d 35.0
1.5 28.0
1.0 e 21.0
0.5 14.0
r 7.0
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
May-12
Nov-12
Nov-11
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
Nov-22
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
Nov-10
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
Nov-22
’
s
a of
Classified loans increased to 9.36% at the end Call money rate increased in November
September 2022 due to policy reformulation significantly due to the liquidity crisis in the
regarding defaulters. t money market.
t
% Share of Classified Loan to Totale 11.0
Call Money Rate (%)
Outstanding
14.5 n 9.0
13.0 7.0 5.83
11.5 t
10.0 9.36 5.0
8.5 i
3.0
7.0
5.5 o 1.0
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Dec-20
Dec-21
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-19
Jun-20
Jun-21
Jun-22
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
Nov-22
n
w
i
2
t
h
November (2022)
The Spread reduced as the costs of deposits Yields of government securities are increasing as
increased due to inflation linked to deposit cost. public finance surged in recent months.
May-17
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-19
Feb-20
Feb-21
Feb-22
Nov-15
Aug-16
Nov-16
Aug-17
Nov-17
Aug-18
Nov-18
Aug-19
Nov-19
Aug-20
Nov-20
Aug-21
Nov-21
Aug-22
Nov-22
0.0
91-Day 182-Day 364-Day 5 yr T- 10 yr T- 15 yr T- 20 yr T- Jan-21
T-bill T-bill T-bill bond bond bond bond Nov-22
Life insurance companies reported growth in life Industrial sector contributed the most in the
revenue account which might have exerted the overall market turnover amid the bearish
buying pressure. movement of the prime index.
The P/E ratio of majority sectors increased slightly with the overall market. Stocks still
continue to trade at attractive prices.
3
November (2022)
Due to the floor price mechanism, risk-averse investors are remaining on the sidelines.
Hence, liquidation opportunities are quite stagnant for approximately 80% of the traded
scrips since investors are quite hesitant to inject fresh capital rather looking for
shorting option.
Market Liquidity
This Month Last Month Change
Total Turnover (BDT MN) 163,270.26 210,917.29 -22.59%
Avg. Daily Turnover (BDT MN) 7,421.38 10,545.86 -29.63%
Scrips which posted positive Market debutant CLICL Majority of the top losers lost
earnings growth were among extended its gaining streak the value most despite posting
the most heavily traded stocks from last month without earnings growth.
among investors. posting fundamental PSI.
TICKER COMPANY NAME SECTOR EPS 2022 EPS 2021 CHANGE Dividend
(Jul-Jun) (Jul-Jun)
BSC Bangladesh Shipping Corporation industrial 14.80 4.72 213.56% 20% cash dividend
4
November (2022)
WORLD MARKET
SENSEX
4,080.11
S&P 500
60,746.59
63,000
4,600
4,100 53,000
3,600 43,000
3,100
33,000
2,600
2,100 23,000
8,651.23
13,000
1,029.39
11,500 1,600
10,000 1,350
8,500 1,100
7,000 850
5,500
4,000 600
8,000
34
7,,573.05
7,000
30
26 6,000
22 5,000
18 4,000
5
November (2022)
LR GLOBAL PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
Consistently outperformed the benchmark index across all funds since
inception due to our security selection, asset allocation, market timing,
and risk management process.
*Note: DSE remained closed from 26th March to 28th May 2020 due to lockdown.
LR GLOBAL MANAGED FUNDS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEAT THE MARKET WITH OVER 58%
CASH DIVIDENDS ON AVERAGE. DESPITE A FLAT MARKET SINCE 2010, LR GLOBAL
MANAGED FUNDS HAVE MATERIALLY OUTPERFORMED THE BENCHMARK INDEX.
LR Global
Value Addition 102.03% 35.33% 16.18% 33.94% 9.09% 12.66% 14.53% 4.31% -4.82% -11.07% 5.01%
DSEX Return 1.22% 3.74% 5.10% 2.99% 5.01% 4.51% -0.25% 4.12% 10.11% 11.96% -10.10%
LR Global
Value Addition
5.14% 2.30% 1.16% 3.10% 0.94% 1.63% 2.78% 0.94% -1.34% -5.06% 5.01%
Jensen’s Alpha 1.17% 0.28% 0.04% 0.84% -0.20% 0.21% -1.31% -0.70% 0.29% -2.22% -5.34%
Dividend 27.76
58.88% 54.51% 41.45% 40.57% 34.94% 20.61% 14.21% 8.62% 8.17% 8.04%
% of PAR %
6
November (2022)
LR GLOBAL INDIVIDUAL PORTFOLIO DIVIDEND HISTORY
CONSISTENT PERFORMANCE ACROSS ALL FUNDS
INCLUDING CASH DIVIDEND HISTORY DESPITE BEAR MARKETS OVER LAST 10 YEARS
RETURNED OVER 58% CASH OF INITIAL INVESTMENT TO UNIT HOLDERS.
Initial Fund Size (BDT Mn) 1,200 1,500 1,000 1,000 3,111 1,085
Tl Cash Dividend (BDT Mn) 895.20 757.50 637.50 585.00 1,720.06 642.88
cumulative dividend
dbh1stmf greendelmf aibl1stimf mbl1stmf lrglobmf1 nccblmf1
yield
5 year 42.74% 44.23% 48.05% 49.80% 45.70% 47.58%
4 Year 37.63% 38.90% 37.89% 40.18% 35.61% 34.61%
3 Year 26.90% 27.08% 27.18% 28.85% 27.52% 25.78%
2 Year 16.01% 15.85% 25.98% 27.77% 21.14% 24.41%
1 Year 16.50% 16.60% 12.33% 13.56% 22.80% 16.08%
Note: The dividend data used for AIBL1STMF and MBL1STMF is for 2022 while the rest are for 2021.
* DBH1STMF & GREENDELMF’s August’22 NAV return has been adjusted for cash dividend .
7
November (2022)
LR GLOBAL PORTFOLIO UPDATE
LR GLOBAL’S PORTFOLIO IS UNDERWEIGHT IN ALL SECTORS COMPARED TO THE
BENCHMARK INDEX, EXCEPT THE PHARMACEUTICALS, MUTUAL FUNDS, AND TANNERY
SECTOR. MOREOVER, WE ARE ALSO WELL POSITIONED TO BUY UNDERVALUED
SECURITIES WHEN APPROPRIATE.
Sectorwise Investment
Market Weight LR Global Fund Weight
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
NBFI
Pharma
Food &
Telecom
Cash
Industrial
Allied
Bank
Mutual
IT
Tannery
Textile
Funds
Sectoral Compostion of Portfolio at Market Value
Mutual Funds , 11.48%
Pharmaceuticals,
20.30%
Pre-IPO/Non-listed
Private Company, 11.36%
Cash, 8.34%
Telecommunication ,
7.83%
Tannery , 5.94%
Others, 16.43%
70% Telecommunication
11.52% 11.36%
60% Mutual Funds
7.61% 7.83%
50% Food & Allied
10.55% 11.48%
40% Tannery
6.52% 5.86%
6.31% 5.94% Industrial
30% 1.01%
4.58% 1.16% 4.66%
2.16% Bank
20% 2.45% 5.63%
5.46%
NBFI
10% 14.43% 15.23%
Bond
0%
Sep-22
Oct-22 Oct-22
Nov-22 Others
Source: LR Global
Research
8
November (2022)
DBH1STMF materially outperformed the GREENDELMF materially outperformed the
benchmark index by 75.3% and disbursed 74.6% benchmark index by 60.3% and disbursed 50.5%
cash dividend since inception. cash dividend since inception.
LR_AIBL1STIMF LR_MBL1STMF
210 210
177
185 177
185
160 160
135 135
110 110
80 88
85 85
60 60
35 LR_AIBL1STMF Benchmark 35 LR_MBL1STMF Benchmark
10 10
Jan-11 Dec-13 Nov-16 Oct-19 Sep-22 Feb-11 Jan-14 Dec-16 Nov-19 Oct-22