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LESSON 12

RELIABILITY

OVERVIEW
This module covers basic information on reliability . It basically aims to provide knowledge
and skills in performing simple reliability computations and explain the purpose of redundancy in
a system .
Reliability is the probability that a system performs correctly during a specific time
duration. During this correct operation, no repair is required or performed, and the system
adequately follows the defined performance specifications.
Reliability follows an exponential failure law, which means that it reduces as the time
duration considered for reliability calculations elapses. In other words, reliability of a system will
be high at its initial state of operation and gradually reduce to its lowest magnitude over time.

MODULE OBJECTIVES

At the end of the module , the students are expected to :

 Define reliability and the factors associated with it .
 Know the various techniques to obtain reliability of a system,
 Understand the probability distributions and failure curves
 Calculate failure rate under different conditions

COURSE MATERIALS

1. System Reliability

Reliability is a measure of the ability of a product, services, part, or system to perform its
intended function under a prescribed set of conditions.

Reliability is the probability that a product will perform its intended function satisfactorily for
a prescribed life under a stated environmental conditions .
1.1 Quantifying Reliability
Probability is used in two ways:
1. The probability that the product or system will function when activated.
2. The probability that the product or system will function for a given length of time.

1.2 Finding the Probability of Functioning when Activated

Rules of probability for independent events:
Rule 1: If two or more events are independent and success is defined as the probability
that all of the events occur, then the probability of success is equal to the product of the
probabilities of the events.

Example:
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Suppose a room has two lamps, but to have adequate light both lamps must work
(success) when turned on. One lamp has a probability of working of .90, and the other has
a probability of working of .80. The probability that both will work is
.90 x .80 = .72. Note that if the room had three lamps, three probabilities would have been
multiplied.

As the number of components in a series increases, the system reliability

decreases.

Rule 2: If two events are independent and success is defined as the probability
that at least one of the events will occur, the probability of success is equal to the
probability of either one plus 1.00 minus that probability multiplied by the other
probability.
Example:

There are two lamps in a room. When turned on, one has a probability of working
of .90 and the other has a probability of working of .80. Only a single lamp is
needed to light for success. If one fails to light when turned on, the other lamp is turned
on. Hence, one of the lamps is a backup in case the other one fails. Either lamp
can be treated as the backup; the probability of success will be the same. The
probability of success is .90 + (1 − .90) x .80 =.98. If the .80 light is first, the
computation would be .80 + (1 − .80) x .90 = .98.

Rule 3: If two or more events are involved and success is defined as the
probability that at least one of them occurs, the probability of success is 1-p(all
fail).
Example:

Three lamps have probabilities of .90, .80, and .70 of lighting when turned on. Only
one lighted lamp is needed for success; hence, two of the lamps are
considered to be backups. The probability of success is
1 − [(1 − .90) x (1 − .80) x (1 − .70)] = .994
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1.3 Finding the Probability of Functioning for a given length of time

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Product failure due to wear-out can sometimes be modeled by a normal

distribution. Obtaining probabilities involves the use of a table. (Areas under the
standardized normal curve, from -∞ to +z)
The table provides areas under a normal curve from (essentially) the left end of
the curve to a specified point z, where z is a standardized

value computed using the formula.

1.4 Computing life probability and service life

The mean life of a certain ball bearing can be modeled using a normal distribution
with a mean of six years and a standard deviation of one year. Determine each of
the following:
a. The probability that a ball bearing will wear out before seven years of service.

b. The probability that a ball bearing will wear out after seven years of service (i.e.,
find its reliability).
c. The service life that will provide a wear-out probability of 10 percent.
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ASSESSMENT / ACTIVITIES:
Exercises. Solve the following problems systematically .
1. A firm has two standby machines available in case a particular machine breaks
down. The machine has a reliability of 0.92 and the backups have reliabilities of
0.88 and 0.78. In the event of failure , either backups can be pressed into service. If
one fails the other back ups can be used .Compute the system reliability.

2. A hotel has three independent fire alarm systems, with reliabilities 0.93, 97, and
0.98. In the event of fire , what is the probability that a warning would be given ?.

3. A television picture tube has set a mean service life that can be modeled by a
normal distribution with a mean of 3 years and a standard deviation of one half year.
a. What is the probability that the picture tube will wear out before 4 years of
service .?
b. What is the probability that the picture tube will wear out after 4 years of service
.?
c. Use the normal table and find the value of z that corresponds to an area under
the normal curve of 10 percent .

4. Genesis company intends to launch a satellite that will enhance reception of TV

programs . According to its designers, the satellite will have an expected life of 5
years . Assume exponential distribution applies, determine the probability that it will
function for each of the following periods .
a. More than 8 years
b. Less than 11 years .
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