Journal of Environmental Management 72 (2004) 1–3

www.elsevier.com/locate/jenvman

Editorial

Modelling land use change and environmental impact

Abstract
Land use change models are tools for understanding and explaining the causes and consequences of land use dynamics. Recently, new
models, combining knowledge and tools from biophysical and socio-economic sciences, have become available. This has resulted in spatially
explicit models focussed on patterns of change as well as agent-based models focused on the underlying decision processes. These
developments improve the use of land use change models in environmental impact studies. This special issue documents these developments:
(i) analysing the system properties in a biophysical and socio-economic context at multiple scales; (ii) integrating spatially explicit land use
change models in integrated assessment models; (iii) visualising and quantifying the potential effects of land use change in trade-off curves,
to support land users and policy makers in their decisions; and (iv) modelling of the actual decision making process with agent-based
modelling. A new promising future development is the incorporation of dynamic feedbacks between changing land use and changing
environmental conditions and vice versa. Unfortunately such dynamic feedbacks between the socio-economic and biophysical model
components are still not or only partially operational in current models and are therefore the most important challenge for land use and
environmental modellers.
q 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Land use change modelling; Environmental impact; Agent-based models; Decision making processes; Coupled systems

1. Introduction 2. Land use change modelling

Land use change is driven by the interaction in space Description and modelling of land systems highly
and time between biophysical and human dimensions. depends on the data availability and quality. With recent
The potential large impact of land use/cover change on advances in land use modelling research, the discrepancy
the physical and social environment has stimulated of data types between human and biophysical disciplines
research in the understanding of land use change and are obvious (Veldkamp et al., 2001). Researchers in the
its main causes and effects. Land use change models are social sciences traditionally study individual behaviour at
tools for understanding the causes and consequences of the micro-level, some of them using qualitative and others
land use dynamics. Scenario analysis with land use using the quantitative models of microeconomics and
models can support land use planning and policy social psychology (Fox et al., 2002). Physical scientists,
(Veldkamp and Lambin, 2001). The LUCC project of geographers and ecologists focus more on land at the
the International Geosphere – Biosphere Programme macro-scale, through remote sensing and GIS, and using
(IBGP) and the International Human Dimensions Pro- macro-properties of social organisation in order to identify
gramme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP) aims social factors connected to the macro-scale patterns
at stimulating and coordinating research on land use (Verburg et al., 2002). Due to the poor connections
change (Lambin et al., 1999; Turner et al., 1995). In between spatially explicit land studies and the socio-
April 2003 a conference ‘Framing Land Use Dynamics’ economic approaches there is a general poverty in real
was held at Utrecht University, Utrecht (the Netherlands) integrated human-environmental approaches (Nagendra
where the LUCC focus-3 office (regional and global land et al., 2004). Two empirical approaches to get more in
use/cover change modelling, http://www.lucc.nl/) organ- depth insight in the coupled human-environmental system
ised nine conference sessions. The papers in this special by means of statistical modelling are presented by
issue are selected contributions with relevance for land Aspinall (2004) and Kok (2004). Both approaches
use change modelling and environmental impact. Papers demonstrate the need to address these issues in a multi-
with emphasis on new spatial modelling techniques were scale approach in order to be able to separate the
published in a separate special issue (Verburg and environmental and socio-economic drivers of land use
Veldkamp, 2004). change.
0301-4797/$ - see front matter q 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2004.04.004
2 A. Veldkamp, P.H. Verburg / Journal of Environmental Management 72 (2004) 1–3

Recently land use change models have been developed to (4) Modelling of the actual decision making process
simulate the behaviour of individuals and the up scaling of with agent-based modelling (Evans and Kelley,
this behaviour, in order to relate it to changes in the land 2004; Huigen, 2004; Ligtenberg et al., 2004).
pattern (Berger, 2001; Parker et al., 2003). Multi-agent
models simulate decision-making by individual agents of A fifth almost unexplored possibility is to incorporate
land use change explicitly addressing interactions among dynamic feedbacks between changing land use and chan-
individuals (Bousquet et al., 1998; Barreteau and Bousquet, ging environment and vice versa. Such dynamic feedbacks
2000). The explicit attention for interactions between agents between the social and biophysical model components are
makes it possible for this type of models to simulate still rare. Some first experiments have been made where
emergent properties of systems. If the decision rules of different rates of change in land use have different
the agents are set such that they sufficiently look like biophysical impacts and feedbacks (Schoorl and Veldkamp,
human decision-making they can simulate behaviour at 2001; Ducrot et al., 2004). The need for this coupling is
the meso-level of social organisation, i.e. the behaviour of clear and links between (micro to macro) agent-based and
in-homogeneous groups of actors. This special issue (macro to micro) empirical models are needed (Verburg
demonstrates the current progress of several multi-agent et al., 2004). This will hopefully lead to more dynamic
models (Huigen, 2004; Evans and Kelley, 2004; Ligtenberg scenarios that facilitate the identification of mechanisms for
et al., 2004). Most current models are only able to simulate better governance and decision-making.
very simplified, hypothetical landscapes, as the number of
interacting agents and variety of factors that need to be taken
into account, is still too large to make comprehensive
models (Parker et al., 2003). The papers in this issue 4. Future developments
demonstrate that realistic applications of multi-agent model
are starting to develop. Especially model validation of A different way to allow dynamic coupling between land
agent-based models is still a largely unexplored terrain of use and environmental systems is proposed in the science
research. Some first attempts for agent-based and empirical plan of the Global Land Project (Ojima and Moran, 2004).
approaches are presented by Evans and Kelley (2004). Here it is proposed to develop novel dynamic scenarios
tools that allow changing boundary conditions during model
simulation instead of fixed often-constant assumptions.
Apart from a focus on land use patterns of change there is a
3. Environmental impact modelling with land shift towards a focus on the actual land use decision making
use change models processes itself as addressed in agent-based modelling. This
will require future efforts to validate not only patterns and
Land use change models are often used as inputs quantities of change but also the change of the agent
in environmental impact studies. Most commonly the behaviour. The possibilities and limitations of such an
changing land use is used as an input of a model to approach remains to be explored. We think that the methods
calculate environmental process impacts such as pollution, described in this special issue have the potential to
emissions, erosion, etc. (King et al., 1989). The problem significantly contribute to the coming Global Land Project.
with such assessments is they are often mono-disciplinary,
static and present only a limited number of alternatives.
Furthermore, the time horizon is usually fixed and the
long-term dynamics of human-environmental systems Acknowledgements
are ignored.
This special issue demonstrates four developments that This special issue is a LUCC focus 3-activity output. We
can lead to improved human-environmental impact assess- thank all the contributors of this special issue to make it a
ments. success. Without the following reviewers this special issue
would not have been possible: Thomas Berger, Johan
(1) Analysing the system properties in a biophysical and Bouma, Francois Bousquet, Dan Brown, Peter Burrough,
socio-economic context at multiple scales (Kok, 2004; Helen Couclelis, Peter Deadman, Marco Huigen, Ekko van
Aspinall, 2004). Ierland, Marco Janssen, Kasper Kok, Christophe Le Page,
(2) Integrating spatially explicit land use change models in Xia Li, Darla Munroe, Ton de Nijs, Bryan Pijanowski, Gil
integrated assessment models (de Nijs, et al., 2004; Pontius, Mark Rounsevell, Rouchier, Veerle Vanacker,
Solecki and Oliveri, 2004). Tom Wassenaar and Fulong Wu. We are very grateful that
(3) Visualisation and quantification of the effects of they dedicated their time and expertise to this issue, the
land use change in trade-off curves, to support land often very detailed reviews have added to the quality of the
users and policy makers in their decisions (Stoorvogel included papers. Finally, a substantial part of the editorial
et al., 2004). work on this special issue was funded by the Foundation for
 A. Veldkamp, P.H. Verburg / Journal of Environmental Management 72 (2004) 1–3 3

the Advancement of Tropical Research (WOTRO) of the Nagendra, H., Munroe, D.K., Southworth, J., 2004. From pattern to process:
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Ojima, D.S., Moran, E., 2004. Global land project: draft science plan.
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* Corresponding author.